Friday, September 14, 2007

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '07: WEEK THREE PICKS

Rollin' on, I guess.

Week Two saw some surprises, as reflected in the new BlogPoll (see to the right). LSU takes over at #1, and USC inexplicably falls to #3 because they dared not play a game.

I am not a USC fan by any means. In fact, I hope Nebraska takes them to the woodshed Saturday night (more on that in a moment). However, I'm not stupid. The Trojans have been one of the best programs in the country for about five years running. They were a well-deserved #1 in the polls in the preseason, and they convincingly won their game on September 1. They then had a bye week.

So what happened? Yeah, LSU won big over Virginia Tech. But that Virginia Tech team was so impressive that they have already changed quarterbacks. And so has that Miami team that new #2 Oklahoma pounded on last week.

Seriously, what did USC do? And if they do kick Nebraska into oblivion Saturday, will they get the same respect from the voters that LSU and Oklahoma did?

We shall see. Wednesday.

On to the picks.

Last week: 20-1
Season: 40-4

The Citadel at Wisconsin:
Oy. I could rant and rave about non-conference scheduling and how really stupid it is, but you've read the rant, and you don't need to read it again. Plus, what level-headed person doesn't agree at this point?
The pick: Wisconsin

Central Michigan at Purdue:
This looked like a good matchup until CMU went to Lawrence and lost to Kansas 52-7. Now, it looks like it will be an upset if it's not a blowout.
The pick: Purdue

Pittsburgh at Michigan State:
Last year, the Spartans absolutely thrashed the Panthers in Pittsburgh. This time around, the Panthers are still training in a new QB while Sparty has looked quite solid, albeit against teams they should look solid against. If Pittsburgh can't run the ball effectively, they're probably in trouble.
The pick: Michigan State

Akron at Indiana:
Expect Akron to play hard, like they did in Columbus last week. The Zips, however, looked practically punchless offensively against tOSU, and that's not likely to turn around in a week. Then again, it is the Indiana defense.
The pick: Indiana

Illinois at Syracuse:
Outscored 42-12 in two games so far, Syracuse looks to turn things around at home. Keep looking, Orange.
The pick: Illinois

Buffalo at Penn State:
See "The Citadel at Wisconsin".
The pick: Penn State

Minnesota at Florida Atlantic:
Since this game is being played at Dolphins Stadium in Miami, this screams of "Please come to the game and help us reach NCAA Division I-A (er, FBS) attendance guidelines". It will take a near-perfect effort for the Owls to pull the upset, and that's not expected. The Gophers will pull away late with their spread offense.
The pick: Minnesota

Iowa at Iowa State:
Iowa State has lost games to Kent State of the MAC and Northern Iowa of I-AA (er, FCS). Iowa, well, is better than those teams, meaning Gene Chizik gets a nightmare 0-3 start at home.
The pick: Iowa

Notre Dame at Michigan:
What does this matchup have in common with "Houston at Tulane", "San Jose State at Stanford", and "Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois"? They're the only matchups of two winless I-A (er, FBS) teams this weekend. Some company, Lloyd and Charlie. Oh, the game. Um, I'll take Michigan. Why? Because I already know Notre Dame's offense stinks. I think Michigan has a chance to be at least decent.
The pick: Michigan

Ohio State at Washington:
Wow, is Washington a bit of a surprise. They took it to Boise State last week, and now they get tOSU at home. The Buckeyes have not impressed on offense, but their defense is better than anything the Huskies have faced so far. Expect a low-scoring game, with tOSU coming out on top.
The pick: Ohio State

Duke at Northwestern:
Nevada stinks, but it was still a really nice win for Northwestern last week, as they came from behind and got a masterful late 80-yard drive from QB C.J. Bacher. The Wildcats should have fewer problems this week.
The pick: Northwestern

Tennessee at Florida:
The Gators won in dramatic fashion last year in Knoxville. This time around, the Volunteers won't blow a chance to win the game late.
The pick: Florida

Texas at Central Florida:
UCF opens a shiny new on-campus stadium Saturday...by losing.
The pick: Texas

Arkansas at Alabama: To me, the big difference in this game is that Alabama has been somewhat underwhelming so far on offense. Their defense could be really good, but it's faced nothing like Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
The pick: Arkansas

Boston College at Georgia Tech: While everyone salivates over the matchup of Matt Ryan versus that aggressive Georgia Tech defense, Taylor Bennett and Tashard Choice will be busy dealing with the BC defense. I like Tech's side of both of those matchups.
The pick: Georgia Tech

USC at Nebraska:
As I mentioned above, I am looking at this as a huge game. Nebraska doesn't figure to get the Arkansas treatment, because they're good enough to avoid it. However, that strong and quick USC defense is going to be too much in the end, and John David Booty will outplay Sam Keller.
The pick: USC

Florida State at Colorado:
I like what I saw early from CU last week, but they simply imploded after taking a 14-0 lead. FSU seems to be the opposite. If they can avoid a hideous start like they had against Clemson, they will come out on top.
The pick: Florida State

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