Monday, September 15, 2008

TOLL THE BELL

After nearly six years of inept managing in the face of improving - and sometimes elite - talent, the Milwaukee Brewers have seen the light.

Ned Yost got canned today.

This is not to celebrate a human being losing his or her job. Ned's got a family, like many of us, and no one wants to get fired from their job, no matter what the job is.

When the Brewers traded for CC Sabathia, the described mentality of the club was "all-in". It seemed as if everyone in the front office was united in going for a championship this year, using their contract-year star pitchers to carry them there.

No, Ben Sheets hasn't had a good second half. Yes, Manny Parra has hit the wall. Yes, Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan are typical bottom-of-the-rotation starters, capable of looking alternately good and terrible.

But this team isn't this bad. They're not 3-11 over 14 key games bad. They're not incapable of scoring runs or hitting, as they've looked.

Whether this is Ned's fault or not doesn't matter. He pays for it, because it's happened too often, and he can't stop it.

It's possible that Ned wound this team too tight. It's possible he did everything he could to unwind them and had no success. Either way, it was time for him to go.

Actually, it was time for him to go a long time ago. But better late than never, I say.

In honor of Yost's departure and the team's glorious meltdown, let's take a look back in time for some of our favorite Yostings.

I was on this a year ago. "Yost refuses to do the necessary homework on his opponents, he seems clueless as to how to put his own players in positions to succeed, and it's the same old story. Same old song and dance, my friend. The Brewers are a .500 team, at least until they start playing the Cubs this week, and much of it falls on Ned's shoulders. This marks the third time in the last four years (Ned gets a mulligan on the first year because it was a disaster trying to follow up on Davey Lopes and Jerry Royster) that the Brewers have fallen flat after the All-Star break. Is it always the players' fault? If so, at what point do these collapses fall on the manager?"

Ned started up early this year. "Had 'using a closer with a history of arm problems for a fourth straight day' been Yost's only crime, we wouldn't be here today.

Instead, Yost didn't stop screwing up Sunday's game in Cincinnati.

After deciding to lift Gagne, he went to Salomon Torres. This would be fine, except that the Reds had a gaggle of left-handers due up, and left-handed (and rubber-armed) reliever Brian Shouse was sitting in the bullpen.

Torres is right-handed, Ned, you idiot!

Reds win.

Yosted."

It was as if he didn't even understand the roster. "The Brewers' leadoff hitter is batting .188, with an OBP below .330. He's led off all but one game, even though his batting average hasn't topped .204 since April 13."

The guy's just an idiot. "After blowing a game by making four hideous errors, including two to key a two-run seventh inning, Brewers manager Ned Yost got snippy with the media. After all, how DARE you question the ability of this team to learn from the mistakes they're making practically every day."

He isn't much of a leader. "I almost felt like this series, we didn't expect to win," Braun said after the 11-7 defeat that dropped the Brewers into sole possession of last place in the NL Central with five consecutive losses. "We were competing; I know everybody tried hard. But it's not about trying hard. You've got to expect to win. I almost feel like we never really expected to win any of these games. I just kind of had that feeling.

"It's just a feeling. Every time we were winning, I just didn't feel we expected to win. It was like we were just content to be there and compete. I don't think we necessarily expected to win.

"Obviously, they're a great team. It's a good gauge of where we're at when we can go out and compete with those guys. For us, as a team, our goal can't be to compete. Our goal has to be to win.

"Obviously, to come in here and win the series would have been extremely difficult but it's a real disappointment to come in here and get swept.

"A team like (Boston), they come out every day and expect to win. You can just sense it. I feel like we're there at times but we need to come with that approach every . No matter who we're playing against, no matter who's throwing against us, and expect to win. Part of that comes with success, comes with beating good teams and good pitchers. We're too talented to approach the game any other way.

"We've got to figure it out and figure it out in a hurry. We're better than that. We're certainly talented enough to win games. But a lot of it, our approach mentally, sometimes has to improve.

"We've got to go to Pittsburgh and try to find a way to win the series and go to Washington and find a way to win that series. We can't play like this for very long, as deep and talented as our division is. We're six weeks into it now.

"By no means is it time to panic. We just have to find a way to start playing better consistently in all facets of the game."

Did I mention that he's just an idiot? Dmitri Young was up with a runner on after Mota walked a .100 or so hitter. Young's OPS against lefties has dwindled considerably in recent years, to the point where the Nationals don't let him do much against them.

Left-hander Brian Shouse was sitting in the bullpen.

With runners on first and third, Yost let Mota pitch to Felipe Lopez, even though he could have set up a force at each base with an intentional walk.

(Also worth noting: Lopez is pretty fast, and the odds of an inning-ending double play were low with him batting.)

Did I mention Mota was pitching his fourth inning over two days, and was pitching multiple innings in a day game after a night game?

That bullpen thing again. Carlos Villanueva pitched the seventh inning, striking out two hitters in a 1-2-3 inning. He threw a grand total of ten pitches, as his renaissance continues in the bullpen. With the score still 4-1 going into the bottom of the eighth, it seemed like a no-brainer to keep Villanueva in the game.

Leave it to the manager with no brains to not figure that out. Instead of leaving the hot, fresh pitcher in the game, he brought Guillermo Mota out. The result? Disaster. A five-run inning that propelled Colorado to a 6-4 win.

I mean, the writing was placed firmly on the wall. This move was a long time coming, and I can only hope it happened at a point where this team still has a shot at the playoffs.

Good luck, boys.

Friday, September 12, 2008

IKE'S COMING - PLEASE HELP IF YOU CAN

You may remember the summer of 2005, when I offered a couple stinging posts on the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. To this day, I feel the response of our federal and local officials was ridiculous, and it showed a complete lack of any forward thinking and preparation for such an event.

On this Friday night, there is a monster on its way to Galveston and Houston. It's Hurricane Ike. While it's "only" a strong Category 2 storm with winds at "only" 110 miles per hour, it's going to devastate much of the Texas coast.

Ike is a large storm with a huge field of hurricane- and tropical storm-force winds. The storm surge will be that of a major hurricane, even though Ike may not officially cross that threshold. The reason for that is that it has such a wide range of high winds from the storm center, meaning it's churned up an insane amount of water in the Gulf of Mexico.

Much of that water is going to end up being pushed up Galveston Bay.

(I am not a meteorologist, but I have done some research on tropical weather. Please don't take any of this as being an expert's opinion or anything.)

This is setting up to be a huge catastrophe for this area, and I implore you to monitor developments. If you have DirecTV, you can watch a simulcast of KHOU-TV on Channel 361. It's much better than the sensationalized crap you see on the news channels or the Weather Channel, though if you want to see Geraldo try to get blown away by the storm, you will probably have to watch Fox News.

If things are as bad as the "experts" think, we then need to unite as a real country and help these people. Give money, donate non-perishable food items, help gather supplies to send down there, give blood. Whatever you can. It's not about being a Democrat or a Republican or an Obama person or a McCain supporter.

As I said in 2005, you know these people would get in line to help you should something bad happen in your area. Please show them the same courtesy.

FOOTBALL PICKS: THIS WEEKEND

Work didn't settle down.

Listen. I know you all hate picks blogs. I am not going to be like that. Please stand by while I try to straighten everything else out.

You'll notice if you look to the right of this page that my FanHouse work has also suffered. So this place isn't the only one.

Anyway, as always, home team in CAPS. College first.

Last week: 15-2
Season: 34-6


SOUTH FLORIDA over Kansas (Friday)
NORTHWESTERN over Southern Illinois
MINNESOTA over Montana State
IOWA over Iowa State
ILLINOIS over Louisiana-Lafayette
MICHIGAN STATE over Florida Atlantic
California over MARYLAND
BYU over Ucla
Penn State over SYRACUSE
Georgia over SOUTH CAROLINA
Oregon over PURDUE
Michigan over NOTRE DAME
USC over Ohio State
FRESNO STATE over Wisconsin

Now, on to the NFL. I hate Week One.

Last week: 9-7
Season: 9-7


CHIEFS over Raiders
Packers over LIONS
VIKINGS over Colts
BENGALS over Titans
PANTHERS over Bears
JAGUARS over Bills
Saints over REDSKINS
Giants over RAMS
SEAHAWKS over 49ers
BUCCANEERS over Falcons
CARDINALS over Dolphins
JETS over Patriots
TEXANS over Ravens
Chargers over BRONCOS
Steelers over BROWNS
COWBOYS over Eagles

Saturday, September 06, 2008

NFL FOOTBALL: WEEK ONE PICKS

Things will get back to normal around here, with at least more sporadic posting, at some point. It'll happen when work settles down, whenever that is.

Here are some picks for Sunday and Monday's Week One NFL games. Hard to keep track if I'm not posting them, right?

Home team in CAPS.

EAGLES over Rams
Jets over DOLPHINS
PATRIOTS over Chiefs
Bengals over RAVENS
Jaguars over TITANS
SAINTS over Buccaneers
Texans over STEELERS
Lions over FALCONS
BILLS over Seahawks
CHARGERS over Panthers
BROWNS over Cowboys
Cardinals over 49ERS
COLTS over Bears
PACKERS over Vikings
Broncos over RAIDERS

Random thoughts:
  • I'm down with the Aaron Rodgers era, as you know, but I'm still nervous for Monday. The Vikings have a really good pass rush, and the Packers' line has hardly inspired confidence so far.
  • The Lions suck, but Matt Ryan is a rookie quarterback.
  • The above statement applies to the Bengals and Joe Flacco.
  • The Cowboys have "overrated" written all over them, says the guy who picked them to be in the NFC title game.
Enjoy Week One.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2008: WEEK TWO

We got through the first week, and there were no major hiccups.

Unless you're Clemson.

Or Virginia Tech. Oops.

Or the Big East and ACC. Ouch.

This was a great weekend for non-BCS teams. Fresno State, Utah, and East Carolina all impressed, and none of them played on their home field.

ECU has another chance this weekend, and let's not forget about teams like Southern Mississippi, Houston, and Central Florida, all of whom have great chances to slay the dragon this weekend. None of them may end up being successful, but they don't have to look far for reason to believe.

As for the picks, it wasn't a bad first week. It would have been better if I hadn't been a complete idiot and bought into Clemson.

Last week: 19-4
Season: 19-4


Because of 12-hour work days and other things, we're going to be short and sweet with picks this week. The best games of the day, in your humble correspondent's opinion, are as follows:

Cincinnati at Oklahoma (ABC)
Mississippi at Wake Forest (ABC)
West Virginia at East Carolina (ESPNHD, 206)
Houston at Oklahoma State

Not much, right?

Well, something will happen to make a game I didn't list into a very entertaining affair.

Here we go. Games listed in chronological order. Home team in CAPS.

WISCONSIN over Marshall
ILLINOIS over Eastern Illinois
OHIO STATE over Ohio
IOWA over Florida International
PURDUE over Northern Colorado
MICHIGAN STATE over Eastern Michigan
MICHIGAN over Miami (Ohio)
Brigham Young over WASHINGTON
OKLAHOMA over Cincinnati
WAKE FOREST over Mississippi
PENN STATE over Oregon State
West Virginia over EAST CAROLINA
INDIANA over Murray State
Northwestern over DUKE
OKLAHOMA STATE over Houston
BOWLING GREEN over Minnesota
FLORIDA over Miami (Florida)

NFL WEEK ONE PICKS: WELL, ONE GAME

The Giants and Redskins play tonight. Sorry I haven't said anything fun about it, but I worked a 12-plus hour day today, and my brain is fried.

You want a pick? OK. I'll take the Giants.

College picks coming later this evening. The rest of the NFL games will get posted tomorrow or Saturday, depending on my schedule.

NFL PREVIEW 2008: THE FINAL STANDINGS

I'm not a genius. I'm not any kind of psychic. Without being one of those two things, there's a good chance I'm not going to get much of this right. Basically, I do it for fun.

The bottom line is that there is little way of knowing what will happen. I read theories that half the teams from 2007 will repeat as playoff teams. I think that's sound. I don't have a 50/50 turnover from last year, but I'm pretty close.

Here is my shot at the final division standings:

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh
2. Cincinnati
3. Cleveland
4. Baltimore
Comment -->The Browns will be an improved team overall, but they take a step back in the standings because they simply won't be as fortunate. Their secondary is still a problem, too. Pittsburgh will be the weakest division winner in the AFC, probably a 9-7/10-6 team as a ceiling. I just don't see Cincinnati or Cleveland mounting a serious challenge.

AFC East
1. New England
2. N.Y. Jets
3. Buffalo
4. Miami
Comment -->The Patriots are still the top dog. No doubt in my mind about that. Tom Brady will be fine, and his supporting cast is simply the best in the league. However, Brett Favre and the Jets will put up a fight. I will go out on a limb and say the gap between the Pats and Jets will be less than that between the Jets and Bills. Buffalo and Miami will both be improved, but in Buffalo's case, the record won't show the improvement (similar to Cleveland).

AFC South
1. Jacksonville
2. Indianapolis
3. Houston
4. Tennessee
Comment -->I think you'll see the guard change here, if only temporarily. Two things scare me about this Colts team. The first is the stunning lack of depth (as evidenced by their woeful special teams). The second is the speed at which Jacksonville has risen to a similar level as Indianapolis. They're in need of more week-to-week consistency, and that's about the only thing keeping them from being a heavy favorite. Houston will continue to show improvement, and they may challenge the Jets and Bengals for the last playoff spot.

AFC West
1. San Diego
2. Denver
3. Oakland
4. Kansas City
Comment -->Look for the Chargers to make their best run this year. The team is stacked, and even if Shawne Merriman can't stay healthy, they have the skill all over the field to beat anyone in the AFC. Denver is the closest thing they'll have to a challenger, but I don't take that team seriously. There are simply too many fatal flaws.

NFC North
1. Green Bay
2. Minnesota
3. Chicago
4. Detroit
Comment -->ESPN's Bill Simmons says the Packers win this division by three games. I see that, but I'm not so confident as to predict it. The Packers are good enough to win 10-12 games, even without Favre and with Aaron Rodgers. But the Vikings are a very good team around an average quarterback. We've seen that done before. It all depends on the defense being dominant instead of hit-and-miss, and that's something we just don't see enough of from the Vikings.

NFC East
1. Dallas
2. Philadelphia
3. N.Y. Giants
4. Washington
Comment -->While the Giants are defending champs, and the Eagles have the best quarterback in the division, the Cowboys have the best and most well-balanced team. That is what it will take for them to win this division. The Redskins will struggle under a new coach, and the Eagles will just miss out on a division title because of questions surrounding Donovan McNabb.

NFC South
1. Carolina
2. New Orleans
3. Tampa Bay
4. Atlanta
Comment -->While the Saints still have defensive questions, Carolina appears to have the least-flawed team in the division. They are okay on defense, and will be even more than that if Julius Peppers rebounds with a big season. Jake Delhomme is healthy, and that's good for them. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers need help all over the offense, and the Falcons have a rookie quarterback.

NFC West
1. Seattle
2. Arizona
3. St. Louis
4. San Francisco
Comment -->Ouch. Seattle wins hands-down, despite having a team that probably wouldn't make the playoffs in the AFC. Arizona is this close, again. San Francisco is a mess, but I've heard of stranger things than J.T. O'Sullivan coming out of nowhere to be a solid quarterback.

Wild Cards
AFC: N.Y. Jets, Indianapolis
NFC: Minnesota, Philadelphia

Conference championship games
AFC: San Diego over New England
NFC: Green Bay over Dallas

Super Bowl
San Diego over Green Bay

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

NFL PREVIEW: RANKING THE TEAMS

I am not endorsing this as my 1-32 ranking of the NFL. Not at all.

However, I was intrigued when ESPN's Scouts Inc. put out their list of unit rankings by team earlier in the summer.

(You can link to the top ten teams at the quarterback position here ($), and from there check out the rest of the rankings.)

I figured that it was a better way of looking at a snapshot of the league than any method I would come up with on the fly, so I went to doing some adding and dividing. I counted the QB position at 1.5 times the rate of every other position, weighing the most important position on the field a little more heavily than the others, but not dramatically so. I added everyone's ranking at every position that was listed, then averaged them out to see who the strongest teams were. By average ranking, here are how the divisions stacked up.

AFC NORTH
1. Cleveland (11.5 average - 6th in NFL)
2. Pittsburgh (12.6 average - 8th in NFL)
3. Baltimore (16.1 average - 12th in NFL)
4. Cincinnati (19.5 average - 20th in NFL)

AFC EAST
1. New England (8.0 average - 3rd in NFL)
2. N.Y. Jets (20.7 average - 23rd in NFL)*
3. Buffalo (20.9 average - 25th in NFL)
4. Miami (27.0 average - 32nd in NFL)

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis (9.3 average - 4th in NFL)
2. Jacksonville (10.9 average - 5th in NFL)
3. Tennessee (17.8 average - 14th in NFL)
4. Houston (18.5 average - 16th in NFL)

AFC WEST
1. San Diego (6.4 average - 2nd in NFL)
2. Denver (21.1 average - 26th in NFL)
3. Oakland (22.5 average - 27th in NFL)
4. Kansas City (23.8 average - 28th in NFL)

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay (12.1 average - 7th in NFL)
2. Minnesota (17.3 average - 13th in NFL)
3. Chicago (20.2 average - 22nd in NFL)
4. Detroit (25.7 average - 31st in NFL)

NFC EAST
1. Dallas (6.0 average - 1st in NFL)
2. N.Y. Giants (12.6 average - 8th in NFL)
3. Philadelphia (13.8 average - 10th in NFL)
4. Washington (18.0 average - 15th in NFL)

NFC SOUTH
1. Carolina (18.7 average - 17th in NFL)
2. New Orleans (19.2 average - 18th in NFL)
3. Tampa Bay (19.3 average - 19th in NFL)
4. Atlanta (25.7 average - 30th in NFL)

NFC WEST
1. Seattle (15.9 average - 11th in NFL)
2. Arizona (20.2 average - 21st in NFL)
3. St. Louis (20.8 average - 24th in NFL)
4. San Francisco (24.9 average - 29th in NFL)

Obviously, I'm not here to jump at a Dallas-San Diego Super Bowl. However, I do think that's a possibility.

I'm also not here to advocate Philadelphia, the Giants, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville as the likely wild cards.

I simply thought this was an interesting glance at the NFL as it stands right now. I'll be back with my actual division picks before Thursday night's openers.

BLOGPOLL 2008 - SEPTEMBER 3 BALLOT

This is probably final, though if you get a suggestion to me before the Wednesday deadline, I'll consider it.

Please note: As a general rule, these will be posted on Mondays. Yesterday was a holiday. Deal with it.

As far as games viewed, I saw bunches of the games from the noon ET window, including Akron-Wisconsin, Bowling Green-Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech-East Carolina, Syracuse-Northwestern, Youngstown State-Ohio State, Whoever-Iowa, Western Kentucky-Indiana, and Hawaii-Florida (watched it online before the feed got too choppy).

I also caught the second half of Fresno State-Rutgers, most of UCLA-Tennessee from Monday as well as Colorado State-Colorado Sunday night.

RankTeamChange
1 Georgia --
2 Southern Cal --
3 Florida --
4 Oklahoma --
5 Ohio State --
6 Auburn --
7 Missouri --
8 LSU --
9 Oregon 1
10 Texas Tech 1
11 South Florida 1
12 Alabama 4
13 West Virginia 1
14 Fresno State 5
15 Kansas --
16 California 1
17 Wisconsin 1
18 Clemson 9
19 Texas 1
20 Wake Forest 2
21 Brigham Young 2
22 Virginia Tech 9
23 Penn State 1
24 Arizona State 1
25 Utah 1

Dropped Out: Illinois (#21).

I dropped Illinois out because they need some work, though it sounds like they played somewhat competitively against Missouri. You'll notice Clemson and Virginia Tech fell dramatically. I was impressed by Fresno State and not so much by Wisconsin. It was nice to see Tennessee validate my decision to leave them out. Nothing like capitalizing on four first-half interceptions from a shaky QB by scoring seven of your 14 points on a blocked punt.

Friday, August 29, 2008

SO MUCH FOR THAT FLORIDA TRIP

Original schedule here.

They could have canceled that trip to Alaska, or the one to Denver. No offense to either place, but Florida is much nicer.

So they cancel the Florida trip, replacing it with a trip to Chicago. In January.
The University of Notre Dame will play host to the first ever Shillelagh Tournament at the Sears Centre in Hoffman Estates, Ill. on Jan. 2 and 3, 2009. The tournament, originally scheduled as the Lightning College Hockey Classic in Tampa, Fla., will feature the University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs, the Union College Dutchmen and the University of Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks.

The tournament that was hosted by the National Hockey League's Tampa Bay Lightning the past two years moves from the Florida city due to the change in ownership of the Lightning who decided not to sponsor the tournament. Notre Dame will now serve as the hosts for the new tournament at the Sears Centre.

"We had commitments from three teams that expected to play in this tournament and it was important for us to fulfill that obligation," said Irish hockey coach Jeff Jackson.

"We were very fortunate that the people from the Sears Centre opened their doors for us to maintain this tournament. The Chicago area is a second home to Notre Dame and hopefully this can help develop into a relationship that will allow us to play games in Chicago on an annual basis."

Jackson added, "I am extremely disappointed in the Tampa Bay Lighting's decision to not continue the tournament. We had a verbal agreement to continue this for two more years and as hosts of the Frozen Four in 2012, I'm not sure it's the best message to send to the college hockey community by cancelling the tournament at such a late date."
You're not the only one disappointed, Coach Jackson.

Then again, "disappointed" doesn't really describe how I feel. On the bright side, I'll have some extra room in my bag, because I don't think I'll need my swim trunks or sandles to go to Chicago. The shores of Lake Michigan aren't quite as nice as the shores of the Gulf of Mexico.