NFL FOOTBALL '07: NFC SOUTH

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the NFC South. You'll notice we've gone a bit shorter with this preview. Same goes for the NFC East and NFC West. Stupid time constraints. THE SEASON OPENS TONIGHT!!!

1. New Orleans Saints
Last year: 10-6 (4-2 vs. NFC South)
Playoffs: Beat Philadelphia in NFC Divisional Playoff, Lost to Chicago in NFC Championship

There aren't many words available to describe the turnaround the Saints engineered under Sean Payton last year. Despite issues on defense, Payton's offense was relentless, racking up over 400 yards seven times, including three games of over 500 yards. Drew Brees proved to be the perfect triggerman, and while top pick Reggie Bush didn't produce many big runs, he was still a highlight waiting to happen whenever he got the ball in space.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Can David Patten restart his career? A solid contributor in New England, Patten was invisible in Washington last year. Something about this offense and Patten's intelligence makes me think he will not be invisible here.

2. What is Bush capable of? He only went for 3.6 per carry last year, but he was a constant threat in the passing game, leading the team with 89 catches. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he doubled the eight touchdowns he scored last year, because he won't be slowed in the running game forever.

3. So, what about that defense? They actually weren't that bad most of last year, thanks in large part to DT Hollis Thomas and pass-rushing DEs Charles Grant and Will Smith. They're aging a bit in the secondary, where they will still rely heavily on CBs Mike McKenzie, Jason Craft, and Fred Thomas, all over 30.

2. Carolina Panthers
Last year: 8-8 (5-1 vs. NFC South)
Playoffs: None

Interesting note from Pro Football Prospectus: In 2006, Jake Delhomme was sacked more than three times as often on third down as he was on first/second down, and his interception rate was also tripled on third down. It's a pretty simple scenario: On third down, Delhomme found himself trying too hard and either forcing bad throws or holding on to the ball too long. Generally, the Panthers were the worst in the league on third down last year, and that's where the improvement has to start if this is to again be a playoff team and Super Bowl threat.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is there a way to use DeAngelo Williams more? As a rookie last year, Williams was pretty good running the football, and he was potentially explosive as a receiver, more than doubling DeShaun Foster's total receiving yards despite only having one more reception than Foster (33 to 32). I'm not going to directly compare him to Bush, but he has something special about him.

2. Is David Carr just a backup? Probably not. Delhomme has never had the look of a star, and while his numbers have been solid for most of his time in Carolina, he can't afford to not win games now that Carr is there. I think Carr was a guy who needed a change of scenery, and now that he's out of Houston, he'll be a better player.

3. Can the Panthers put it all together? They have a good group of running backs, but the passing game is sometimes shaky. The offensive line has been up and down. A really good defensive line is complimented by a secondary that lacks top-end talent and depth. If this team can stay healthy and play better week-to-week, they'll be a serious challenger in the division.

3. Atlanta Falcons
Last year: 7-9 (3-3 vs. NFC South)
Playoffs: None

What an offseason in Atlanta. First, they fired coach Jim Mora and brought in offensive guru Bobby Petrino from Louisville. Then, they watched in horror as the face of the franchise, QB Michael Vick, was implicated, indicted, and then entered a guilty plea in a federal dogfighting case. Imagine being the Minnesota Vikings this weekend. They're probably equally jubilant and wary, because while this could be a very bad team this year, we have no idea how they'll respond when the games count.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is this the right fit for Joey Harrington? On one hand, it's a quick-hit offense that will rely on precision passing and not a lot of "hold on to the ball and hope something good happens", which Harrington has been plagued by in the past. On the other hand, it's Joey Harrington.

2. Will Petrino run the ball enough? His offense is known as being wide-open, but he did run it well at Louisville. One would assume the same principles will apply here, especially with the talented Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood available.

3. What's with this secondary? The safeties were a huge problem last year, making corners like Jimmy Williams and DeAngelo Hall look lost because they weren't getting any deep help. With Patrick Kerney gone from the defensive line, the secondary will be under even more pressure to improve themselves, but the personnel is sketchy.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year: 4-12 (0-6 vs. NFC South)
Playoffs: None

Perhaps you were busy watching the offense continually struggle to move the chains, but the Buccaneers appear to no longer have a lights-out defense. PFP points out that the Bucs spent much money this offseason trying to upgrade that defense. That's good, because the defense was heading in the wrong direction. It's bad, because it doesn't add personnel to a struggling offense. We'll see if Jon Gruden can do with Jeff Garcia what Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg did last year.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is the defense better? Unquestionably, yes. Rookie Gaines Adams opens as a "backup" to RDE Patrick Chukwurah, but that's temporary. He'll emerge as a starter before long. The upgrades at LB and the secondary, headed up by Jeremiah Trotter and Cato June, will go a long way toward improving the Bucs' speed on defense.

2. Can Garcia do it again? The laws of physics say "probably not". He's a year older, and the talent here isn't as good as it is in Philadelphia. Even if they can get David Boston playing at a high level again, this group of receivers doesn't scare anyone.

3. Who is the real Cadillac Williams? After bursting on the scene as a rookie, Williams had problems last year, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. He was a non-factor as a receiver. Overall, he had more fumbles (two) than touchdowns (one). Ouch.

NFL FOOTBALL '07: NFC EAST

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the NFC East. You'll notice we've gone a bit shorter with this preview. Same goes for the NFC South and NFC West. Stupid time constraints. THE SEASON OPENS TONIGHT!!!

1. Philadelphia Eagles
Last year: 10-6 (5-1 vs. NFC East)
Playoffs: Beat N.Y. Giants in NFC Wild Card, Lost to New Orleans in NFC Divisional Playoff

Andy Reid has Donovan McNabb back under center, but can this be a different year for him than the last? The Eagles sat at 5-4 and appeared to be heading in the wrong direction when McNabb blew out his knee last year. In his place, Jeff Garcia was more than adequate, leading the team to a division title and a playoff win at home. McNabb looked, frankly, pretty good in the preseason, so there's no reason to think he's not at full strength. Even though he is coming off a torn ACL, McNabb is almost certain not to pull a Daunte Culpepper in his return from injury.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is McNabb ready for full contact? We'll probably find out this weekend, when he faces a pretty good Green Bay pass rush.

2. Have they found adequate depth at WR? It doesn't look like it, though Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis are talented and young.

3. Will they remain committed to the run? By all indications so far, yes. And this is a good thing.

2. Dallas Cowboys
Last year: 9-7 (2-4 vs. NFC East)
Playoffs: Lost to Seattle in NFC Wild Card

Bill Parcells is gone, but the Cowboys seem to think this is a good thing. He never really fostered a warm relationship with anyone, and this veteran team doesn't need a whip-cracker at this point. Enter Wade Phillips, the ultimate anti-whip cracker. It will be quite interesting to see how his anti-whip cracking ways mesh with flamboyant, arrogant, and somewhat talented WR Terrell Owens. When Owens is at his best, he's infuriating both opposing defenses and his own coaches with his on-field prowess and off-field "Look at me!" behavior. A totally silent TO is probably not to anyone's benefit.

KEY QUESTIONS

1. Can Phillips keep TO reasonably in check? Probably not, but QB Tony Romo is the one who has to keep TO happy. Keep feeding him the ball, and all will be fine. Not only that, but you could do a lot worse than getting him close to 100 catches, because he'll score you a boatload of touchdowns.

2. Will the defense emerge as a major threat? Maybe to Dallas' playoff chances, yes. The Cowboys were downright awful defensively for most of the latter part of 2006, allowing bundles of yards and points against even bad teams like Detroit. That has to turn around, or it won't matter what Romo, TO, and Terry Glenn can produce.

3. How will the team respond to Phillips? He's been extremely successful as a defensive coordinator, but he has shown virtually nothing as a head coach in two previous stints. Much like Norv Turner, Phillips is seen as a nice guy who, for some reason, just doesn't translate to the head coaching position.

3. Washington Redskins
Last year: 5-11 (1-5 vs. NFC East)
Playoffs: None

The Redskins are going to struggle in 2007 for the same reason they struggled in 2006: lack of quality depth. They've gutted their ability to build through the draft with a series of dumb signings and trades, and they haven't exactly reminded anyone of Jimmy Johnson or Ron Wolf when they have used draft picks. There is talent here, especially with stud RB Clinton Portis, but the Redskins are going to rely on the ability to stay healthy (largely a function of dumb luck, really) to win games.

KEY QUESTIONS

1. Can Jason Campbell emerge as the team's starting quarterback? He looked good at times last year, but struggled with his accuracy. He's a pretty good athlete, a plus given the issues the Redskins will have on the offensive line.

2. Will Antwaan Randle El prove he wasn't a free-agent bust? I'm sure the Redskins didn't throw all that money at him so he could average two catches per game and 11 yards per catch.

3. Will the secondary survive some serious roster turnover? Kenny Wright, Mike Rumph, and Adam Archuleta are gone. Fred Smoot, Omar Stoutmire, and David Macklin are among the new faces, along with top pick Laron Landry.

4. New York Giants
Last year: 8-8 (4-2 vs. NFC East)
Playoffs: Lost to Philadelphia in NFC Wild Card

No team is as ridden with controversy as the Giants. Not only did Tiki Barber retire and subsequently blame all the world's problems on Tom Coughlin (I thought it was all Bush's fault??), but DE Michael Strahan threatened to retire and basically skipped all of training camp before showing up. Oh, and it seems everyone in New York despises QB Eli Manning, even though he's steadily improved ever since his first start as a Giant.

KEY QUESTIONS

1. Is Manning really that bad? No. No one in New York is that bad. And it's this reporter's opinion that Eli Manning stands to benefit the most from Barber's departure and mouth-running. I don't particularly care what Barber has to say, and I'm not bothered by his decision to say what he says. But I also believe pretty strongly that Eli Manning is a better football player than he's been given credit for, and we'll start to see that this year.

2. What to do without Tiki? No doubt Barber was the focus of the offense, putting up some serious numbers with over 2,100 total yards last year. However, there were times that Barber was too much the focus. It's the old Bill Simmons Ewing Theory. The problem here is that Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns aren't really good enough to pick up the running slack, so the gains the Giants make in the passing game will probably go largely unnoticed.

3. How much of a potential disaster is this secondary? It wasn't good last year, and unless you really like Texas CB Aaron Ross, the Giants' first-round pick, you probably don't like their chances to improve greatly. The best players from last year, CBs R.W. McQuarters and Sam Madison, aren't getting any younger.

NFL FOOTBALL '07: NFC NORTH

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the NFC North. You'll notice that the Bears were pretty good last year, and really nobody else was. The Packers and Vikings had respectable defenses, but were plagued by varying degrees of offensive ineptitude. The Lions, well, um, yeah.

1. Green Bay Packers
Last year: 8-8 (5-1 vs. NFC North)
Playoffs: None

I'm already being yelled at for being a homer. Let me explain this, and do so without pointing out that the brilliant Aaron Schatz has picked Green Bay to win the division, too. Just because Aaron Schatz says it doesn't make it true. I'm sure he's been wrong at least once before. Not only that, but I was picking Green Bay in this division before I knew he was.

The Packers are now three years removed from the idiocy that was Mike Sherman, personnel guy, and two years removed from the idiocy that was Mike Sherman, head coach. The personnel guy now, Ted Thompson, has been busy this offseason fielding criticism over his unwillingness to spend money. The new head coach, Mike McCarthy, has a nice shiny four-game winning streak to take into the season opener, and after some early hiccups, appears to be developing very nicely. Sherman is gone, as are Joe Johnson, Cletidus Hunt, Jamal Reynolds, and Ahmad Carroll, among others. There's a new group of young players growing up and preparing to lead this team into the playoffs. Oh, and there's that Favre guy, too.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Has Brett Favre lost it? Boy, as much as I like Aaron Rodgers, I have to answer in the negative on this one. Favre has not lost it. If you think he has lost it, ask the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, or San Francisco 49ers. Sure, he's not as good as he was in 1996, but is that seriously to be expected? Unlike 1996, the Packers have one proven playmaker on offense besides Favre, and that's Donald Driver. It won't be easy for Favre to keep his interceptions down while increasing his completion percentage, but it also won't take much effort on his part. The Packers were one of the worst teams in the league in terms of dropping passes last year. Parts of this can be attributed to the weapons not being as good, Favre not being as sharp as he used to be, the offensive line being purely offensive at times (especially early in the season), and the weapons not being as good (did I mention that already?). I expect that an improved and more cohesive offensive line and moderately better players at wide receiver will help Favre lift his completion percentage and TD numbers a hair. He's not lost it. He's more than capable of carrying this team to a win or two. But if McCarthy, Thompson, or anyone else expect him to do more than that, they're delusional. The MVP years have certainly passed us by.

2. Who will be running and catching for the Packers? Outside of Driver and a hopefully rejuvenated Bubba Franks, we just don't know. The running back situation is particularly messy, as unproven Vernand Morency is back at practice after missing the preseason with a knee injury, and rookie Brandon Jackson missed the last preseason game with a concussion. Morency appears to be the best hope for now, as Jackson is still figuring out how to block against blitzes and things. Defenses like, oh, Philadelphia would have a field day if he were in a one-back formation right about now. Favre, on the other hand, would be able to spend a lot of quality time finding shapes in the clouds above Lambeau Field. Anyway, Driver is the only reliable receiver, but rookie James Jones flashed enough ability in training camp to draw multiple comparisons to former Packer jerk star Sterling Sharpe. Greg Jennings looked okay at times last year, and Ruvell Martin gives the Packers a big target who can win a jump-ball. Carlyle Holiday is an intriguing prospect who will serve as the emergency QB while the Packers are only carrying two actual QBs.

3. How good is this defense, anyway? Let's start up front. End Aaron Kampman is probably one of the five best at his position in the league, and he is in rare company as a player who actually got a lot better after signing a big-money contract. The Packers moved Cullen Jenkins to the other end on run downs last year and got good results, so they'll do that again. The arrangement allows Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila to serve solely as a pass-rush specialist, and it should help keep him fresh. Tackles Ryan Pickett and Corey Williams/Colin Cole/Johnny Jolly/Justin Harrell provide push against the run, but outside of Williams, there isn't much pass-rush ability in that group. CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson, LBs Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk are more than adequate, though depth can be questioned at both positions.

2. Chicago Bears
Last year: 13-3 (5-1 vs. NFC North)
Playoffs: Beat Seattle in NFC Divisional Playoff, Beat New Orleans in NFC Championship, Lost to Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLI

I'm not one of these morons who says the Bears "choked" or "didn't get the job done when it counted". As much as I don't personally care for the Chicago Bears, I was happy for them that they got to the Super Bowl, and I am glad that they represented the NFC North by playing a competitive game against a heavy favorite.

The Bears ran away with the division title last year, winning 13 games. They beat the stuffing out of everyone in the NFC North except Minnesota at least once. They were a good team and a deserving NFC champion. However, I see issues with this team's ability to repeat. The Bears were outgained by their opponent in four of their 15 wins last year, including a margin of 346-107 in a win over Minnesota. The defensive line depth has taken a hit with departures and the suspension of Tank Johnson. And Rex Grossman is still the QB. Please note that, despite those hits, there aren't any questions below about the defense. It's still going to be good, even if the overall production falls off a bit.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Can Rex Grossman become a passable NFL quarterback? When you're simply assuming that Grossman can play mistake-free football and allow other facets of this team to win the game, keep the following numbers in mind: 14-37-144-0-4, 18-42-210-1-3, 11-22-119-1-0, 6-19-34-0-3, 11-26-144-1-0, 20-28-165-1-2. Those are Grossman's numbers (Comp-Att-Yards-TD-INT) in six selected games from a year ago. In those games, the Bears were, inexplicably, 5-1. The only loss was the last game listed, when Grossman had snap issues as well as issues keeping from throwing the ball to the Colts. Grossman had some good games last year, but the good was surrounded by games that were mediocre or just plain horrific. That's the story of Grossman. He plays well for a time, then bobbles a center snap or makes a bad read. As the teams in this division improve, it's going to be tougher and tougher for the Bears to win it without quality play from the quarterback position. At this point, it's anyone's guess whether Grossman is the guy to give them that.

2. Is Cedric Benson ready to be the every-down guy? Last year, Benson got the ball 157 times and averaged a shade over four yards per rush. Not bad. In fact, his per-carry average was practically identical with that of the departed Thomas Jones. The only question is whether Benson can handle the pounding. He's had two years of virtual inactivity after he was almost run into the ground at Texas. The Bears hope that he's fresh and capable of carrying the run game. Backup Adrian Peterson is better-known for his work on special teams, and doesn't figure to get the ball very much. Third-stringer Garrett Wolfe is a small but interesting rookie who had a super career with Northern Illinois.

3. Devin Hester can't possibly score six more return touchdowns this year, can he? History says he can't. Any run of touchdowns that you get from sources besides your offense is often difficult, if not impossible, to duplicate the next season. The Bears scored five defensive touchdowns in 2001, but only one in 2002. Dante Hall had that really nice run of return touchdowns, but has not been as successful since 2003. Even the really good ones fall off a little bit, so it stands to reason that Hester will. If/When that happens, who will make up for those lost touchdowns?

3. Minnesota Vikings
Last year: 6-10 (2-4 vs. NFC North)
Playoffs: None

This Vikings team is a tough one to figure out. On paper, you'd think that their defense would be among the league's best. But despite their prowess against the run, they have struggled enough against the pass to make me question that. New England, Green Bay, Arizona, the Jets, and St. Louis all had success against the Vikings by not over committing to the run and spreading the field (it's notable that St. Louis had much success running the ball, but this appears to be an odd exception).

Offensively, it appears that the mess will be cleaned up just a bit with the addition of Adrian Peterson. The Vikings have also done something of an overhaul with their receivers, in hopes of creating a few more big-play chances for young QB Tarvaris Jackson.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is Jackson ready? Probably not, but the Vikings are doing the right thing. He seems like a tough kid, so I don't think they have to worry about him getting down when mistakes happen. The coaches have to keep working with Jackson, because his mechanics are far from refined. His arm is strong, and he's a very good athlete. There's no reason to think that he won't be a player in this league. This year will be about developing Jackson. Hopefully, Brad Childress shows more willingness to use Jackson's mobility as an advantage, rather than trying to turn him into a strict dropback passer. If he shows he's clearly not ready, and that he's not benefiting from playing time, the Vikings have veterans Kelly Holcomb and Brooks Bollinger serving as backups. Holcomb has worked in the West Coast offense before, so if he has to play, you shouldn't expect a tough transition.

2. Can the pass defense improve? Something tells me that the Vikings will benefit from not having Fred Smoot around. He was anywhere between ineffective and brutal as a Viking. Cedric Griffin appears to be a keeper, and he takes over the starting spot opposite star Antoine Winfield. Where Winfield lacks as a pure cover guy, he more than makes up with his intuition and physical play. The Vikings drafted a big guy, Marcus McCauley out of Fresno State, and they hope he can play a lot as a rookie nickel back. Darren Sharper has shown some signs of decline at safety, and injuries are always at least a bit of a concern with him, but he was actually pretty good in coverage last year. He's not the world's most physical player, but he has a great nose for the football.

3. Will the highly-paid offensive line start playing like it? The left side wasn't as good as the investment would suggest last year, as Steve Hutchinson appeared to struggle at times in a new (for him) system, and Bryant McKinnie was his usual inconsistent self. McKinnie's biggest weakness in college was his footwork and ability to handle outside rushers, and he has shown virtually no improvement in that area in the NFL. Because they didn't play up to their paychecks last year, and the right side isn't nearly as good as the left, the Vikings' line struggled, especially in pass-blocking. Having a mobile Jackson back there won't help matters much unless Childress turns him loose, and that won't happen until Jackson's fundamentals improve.

4. Detroit Lions
Last year: 3-13 (0-6 vs. NFC North)
Playoffs: None

I'm not sure it's worth posting the same old song and dance here. You all know how brutal the Lions have been since Matt Millen took over the football operation. While not all of it is his fault, it's amazing the guy still has a gig. Blah. Blah. Blah.

(My favorite Millen Fixation Note comes courtesy, again, of Pro Football Prospectus. Millen has had six top-ten picks in the NFL Draft, and has spent four of them on wide receivers. In the last six years, the other 54 top-ten picks have combined to yield six wide receivers.)

This team could be decent, and should at least challenge the Vikings for third. Anything beyond that is a stretch for this team, which is building slowly. And I mean "slowly".

KEY QUESTIONS
1. How bad is this defense going to be? DT Shaun Rogers is really good. DE/DT Cory Redding is a nice young talent. Outside of that, bring on the chirping crickets. LB Ernie Sims has promise, but struggled last year. The Lions are injury-prone at the other LB positions, with Paris Lenon and Boss Bailey being, probably, the best of the bunch. CBs Dre Bly and Jamar Fletcher are gone, leaving a mess behind them. The Lions lack talent and depth in the backfield, and if the defensive line can't generate consistent pass pressure, they will get regularly torched by even average passing attacks.

2. How is Jon Kitna going to stay upright long enough to throw for 4,000 yards? You got me. Outside of Dominic Raiola and Jeff Backus, the Lions were mish-mashing a line together throughout the season because of injuries and ineffectiveness. More of the same can be anticipated this year, though the Bly trade to Denver gave the Lions a potential starting RT in George Foster. The 63 sacks allowed last year represented a career high for Kitna, but he still managed to approach 4,000 yards passing. And he did that with Mike Furrey as his second option at receiver.

3. Are the Lions really going to make an effort to run the ball? With or without the injured Kevin Jones, it appears so. They brought in Tatum Bell in the Bly trade, and the Lions also signed big T.J. Duckett. It's certainly an upgrade, but now it's up to offensive coordinator Mike Martz to use all these guys. He's never been shy about pounding away with the run game (see: "Faulk, Marshall"), but it's hard to imagine he'll ignore his outside weapons. Roy Williams, Furrey, and rookie Calvin Johnson will see plenty of footballs flying through the air. The Lions will be an exciting team on offense, but will it be enough to help out a beleaguered defense? Martz needs to recognize his team's need to play a somewhat balanced offense. The Lions don't have the defensive personnel to force a lot of turnovers or make a lot of stops. If they're going to win more than a small handful of games, they need to exhibit enough balance to hold the ball for at least a few long drives.

NFL FOOTBALL '07: AFC WEST

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the AFC West. The 2006 season saw San Diego run away with the division, Oakland embarrass themselves, and the 2005 AFC runner-up flounder behind a struggling quarterback.

1. Denver Broncos
Last year: 9-7 (3-3 vs. AFC West)
Playoffs: None

That sure was a confusing 2006 for Denver. The defense came out flying. Granted, the games weren't all against the top offenses in the NFL, but the Broncos allowed 6, 7, 3, 3, and 7 points over five straight wins. After a promising 7-2 start, the Broncos lost two straight, which led to coach Mike Shanahan pulling the plug on Jake Plummer and inserting rookie Jay Cutler as the starting QB. Cutler struggled early on, but showed his great arm and an increased grasp of the offense as the season wore down. Unfortunately for Cutler, he couldn't lead the Broncos to a win in their season finale, and as a result, Denver missed the playoffs.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Can Cutler lead the Broncos back to the playoffs? With or without Travis Henry on board, we know the running game will be good. Having Henry only increases Denver's chances of success, because he's already established himself as a top back. Denver is hoping for a big year from big-play WR Javon Walker, who started quick but finished slowly, failing to post a 100-yard game and scoring just twice in the last seven games (Denver was 2-5). The team signed former Colt Brandon Stokley, and they really like emerging youngster Brandon Marshall. The Broncos also picked up TE Daniel Graham in free agency, giving Cutler another proven target. The pieces are in place, and Cutler played well for the most part in his rookie audition. This offense should have a very good season.

2. Is the defense built to win? Getting DE Simeon Rice signed this week is huge for Denver. The Broncos have an impressive stable of pass rushers with Rice, Elvis Dumervil, and first-round pick Jarvis Moss all in the fold. John Engelberger also returns, and he brings some size to the DE rotation. DT Sam Adams will be the key cog in the middle of the line. With Dre Bly now starting opposite All-World CB Champ Bailey, the Broncos have one of the best cover tandems in the NFL, and with Adams in the middle of the line, it's going to be increasingly tough to block the Broncos' mobile linebackers.

3. Can Denver survive a tough schedule? Whoever makes the league slate didn't do Mike Shanahan any favors. Besides a division schedule that includes two games against both San Diego and Kansas City, the Broncos have road games against Indianapolis and Chicago, a late-season stretch of six road games in eight weeks, and home games against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Tennessee. Of this group, you know the Chargers, Colts, and Bears will be good. The Jaguars, Steelers, and Packers all figure to be better than their 8-8 records from last year. Cutler won't have it easy in his first full season as a starter.

2. San Diego Chargers
Last year: 14-2 (5-1 vs. AFC West)
Playoffs: Lost to New England in AFC Divisional Playoff

Not many teams that win 14 games have to deal with a coaching change. Usually, when it does happen, the coach has left on his own, either to take some time away or just retire. In the Chargers' case, they fired a coach who had just won 14 games. Marty Schottenheimer was a rather controversial presence in San Diego. He caused much strife with the fans with some of his in-game decisions in that loss to the Patriots, but before that, he had clashed repeatedly with GM A.J. Smith, a problem that owner Dean Spanos cited in deciding to remove Schottenheimer after the season ended. His replacement? Well, Norv Turner's presence is also an issue. He may get along with Smith, but can he coach?

KEY QUESTIONS
1. So, can he coach? PFP says "No". Actually, it's pretty emphatic. PFP goes so far as to label Turner "the ninth-worst head coach of all time at holding fourth-quarter leads of any size". They cite the numbers, which show Turner's teams have been worse than average at holding leads of a single score late in games. This team should be easier for Turner to handle, being that they are coming off a 14-2 season and carry a ten-game regular-season winning streak into their opener on Sunday. Turner better win quickly with this group, as I'm guessing patience won't run too high in San Diego.

2. How well will Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm hold down the MLB spots? The Chargers' 3-4 defense is very strong. The only potential weakness is over the middle, where veterans Randall Godfrey and Donnie Edwards are gone. Cooper and Wilhelm were part-time players last year, and neither were terribly impressive. They're undersized and quick, which might help, because the state of things on the Chargers' defensive front means they probably won't have to face too many offensive linemen running after them. With Ted Cottrell now coordinating the defense, don't expect to see much dropoff in their overall numbers.

3. Antonio Gates is really good, but who's going to step up at WR? Veteran Keenan McCardell was a flop, so he's gone. Starters Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd combined for 42 catches and six scores last year. If Philip Rivers is to continue to improve, he is going to need people besides Gates and superstar RB LaDainian Tomlinson to throw to. Tomlinson's numbers are sure to drop a bit, even if it's not because of increased contributions from backup Michael Turner. It's just the law of averages, really. 31 touchdowns can be hard to top.

3. Kansas City Chiefs
Last year: 9-7 (4-2 vs. AFC West)
Playoffs: Lost to Indianapolis in AFC Wild Card

As much as I've quoted Pro Football Prospectus in these previews, nothing I saw surprised me more than the projections for the 2007 Chiefs. PFP has their mean projection at 5.2 wins, meaning the Chiefs will be closer to the top pick in the draft than they'll be to the playoffs. It's the lowest "mean projection" in the AFC West (Oakland is at 6.5!!). It's actually a reasonable argument, considering the poor play we saw from their defense for much of last year, along with the one-dimensional nature of the offense.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Can Larry Johnson do it again? PFP and others say he can't. Johnson carried the rock 416 times last year. Much statistical research has shown either a decline or an injury follows a season like that. Herm Edwards would be smart to use Michael Bennett more, but Bennett doesn't fit the power-running style Edwards prefers. Bennett is a fast guy who could provide a nice change-of-pace for 7-12 carries a game, much more than the 2.25 he averaged last year. No matter how Edwards decides to use him, odds are that Johnson won't be as good, and as a result, the offense will falter.

2. Why not sign Byron Leftwich? Outside of pure stubbornness, the Chiefs really have no reason not to take a serious look at Leftwich. Edwards wants to believe in Brodie Croyle as the QB of the future, but he's shown nothing so far. Damon Huard is the starter for now, but he's been a career backup for a reason. With this stable of receivers, there might not be more than a couple active QBs who can make something of this passing game, but I really can't see the harm in giving Leftwich a shot.

3. Can the Chiefs cobble together a defense? The hope is that free-agent MLB Napoleon Harris can be as good here as he was in Minnesota. Unfortunately for Harris, he won't have Pat and Kevin Williams in front of him in Kansas City. Having Ron Edwards and Alfonso Boone at DT won't be the same. Donnie Edwards is back at OLB in place of the ineffective Kendrell Bell. The secondary is a mess. Ty Law and Patrick Surtain aren't getting any younger, Lenny Walls is gone, and there are questions at both safety spots. Unless Edwards can get the defense playing at a high level again, the Chiefs are going to have a huge struggle on their hands.

4. Oakland Raiders
Last year: 2-14 (0-6 vs. AFC West)
Playoffs: None

After a season void of anything positive, the Raiders are starting over. The new head coach is younger than the starting left defensive tackle. The new QB coach is younger than the presumptive starting QB (maybe not Week One, but eventually). The team ranked last in basically any offensive metric imaginable, put constant strain on a pretty good defense, and committed too many turnovers. Oh, and the offensive line allowed 72 sacks. Ouch. Prospects aren't all that great this season, as Oakland is unlikely to be a serious playoff contender, and will be fortunate to avoid last place in the division.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. When does Daunte Culpepper take over? Reports are that Culpepper will be named the Week One starter today, but nothing is official. Keep in mind that Culpepper was signed late in training camp and didn't a lot enough time with the offense. Oh, and that "knee injury leading to apparent lack of mobility" thing, too. Josh McCown had all the minicamp time and OTA time behind top draft pick JaMarcus Russell, who might want to consider that paltry $30 million-plus the Raiders are apparently offering. I have a feeling that Culpepper, whose behavior could be categorized as "strange" ever since that Love Boat thing in Minnesota, is going to make the Raiders forget that they drafted a QB first overall. Maybe I'm wrong, but I have a suspicion he'll play well, in the second year off his reconstructive knee surgery.

2. Whether it's McCown or Culpepper, will the line be better? It can't be worse. Even David Carr was laughing at the Raiders' QBs last year. The Raiders go to the zone-blocking scheme this year, which probably means their defensive players will have to stop whining about Denver's cut blocks. On the surface, they must be feeling better about things, because Oakland only drafted one lineman this spring. It probably means Robert Gallery and Barry Sims will start at tackle. Unless both are significantly improved, that's not good for whoever the QB is.

3. Will this defense hold up? They're not getting any younger on the line, where a slimmed-down Warren Sapp is the anchor. They figure to get their run-stopping prowess from their linebackers, as the line seems better-suited for going after QBs. The Raiders have drafted some nice LBs recently, including current starters Sam Williams, Kirk Morrison, and Thomas Howard. The well-traveled Robert Thomas provides depth on the outside. The secondary is solid and not a major concern, though some more big plays would be nice. If the offense can figure out a way to stay on the field more, the defense should be solid again (Oakland was 29th in the NFL last year in time of possession).

NFL FOOTBALL '07: AFC SOUTH

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the AFC South. This division has been owned recently by the Colts, who have won the last four division titles. They have a combined record of 50-14 in that span, and they haven't won fewer than ten games in a season since the division was created in 2002. Is this the year that someone topples the Colts atop the division?

1. Indianapolis Colts
Last year: 12-4 (3-3 vs. AFC South)
Playoffs: Beat Kansas City in AFC Wild Card; Beat Baltimore in AFC Divisional Playoff; Beat New England in AFC Championship; Beat Chicago in Super Bowl XLI

Magic found the Colts at the right time last year. Safety Bob Sanders returned from injury, and suddenly they had a run defense for the postseason. After being one of the worst run defenses in the league during the regular season, Indianapolis was outstanding in their four playoff victories. Now, as they embark on their title defense, the Colts have a number of issues that could derail their drive for a repeat.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. How will the Colts recover from the losses on defense? They re-signed star DE Dwight Freeney, which was great news. But they lost CBs Nick Harper and Jason David and LB Cato June to free agency. Also gone is safety Mike Doss, but he didn't play much last year due to injury. Obviously, the Colts will lean heavily on Freeney and Sanders, along with LB Gary Brackett. Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson are the new starting corners, which attacks Indianapolis' depth more than their talent. These guys can play. The issue in the secondary surrounds who will be on the field when opposing teams go three- and four-wide? The Colts drafted Cal's Daymeion Hughes (now known as Dante Hughes, by the way), but it's not yet known when he'll be ready to contribute significantly.

2. Will Peyton Manning ever slow down? He now has his championship, but there is no indication that Manning intends to stop at one title. The Colts may have needed their significant improvements on defense in order to win it all last year, but Manning's leadership was a key, too. When the game was on the line against New England, Manning led his team down the field for the eventual game-winning score. He was nearly flawless in leading the Colts past the Bears in the Super Bowl, despite awful throwing conditions in Miami. The receiver depth was attacked a bit this offseason, with Brandon Stokley departing, but the Colts pounced quickly by drafting Ohio State's Anthony Gonzalez in the first round. While Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are the stars, TE Dallas Clark has emerged as a favorite of Manning's, and he's an important piece to the offense. When Clark was forced to miss time with a knee injury, the Colts were just 1-3. He may not have caught as many passes as fellow TE Ben Utecht, but Clark's presence will be of great help to Manning.

3. How much will the offensive line be hurt by the retirement of LT Tarik Glenn? The Colts need to replace a guy who was a fixture on one of football's best offensive lines for years. There's no way this will be easy. For now, the job belongs to rookie Tony Ugoh, the Colts' second-round pick out of Arkansas. Glenn and C Jeff Saturday were the two best parts of the Colts' line last year, and losing one of them is a potential disaster. But Ugoh is a capable player who has done nothing in training camp to make the Colts terribly concerned about this position. That said, replacing a veteran rock with a rookie stud could lead to problems, especially for a quarterback who has not needed to worry much about his offensive line over the years.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year: 8-8 (2-4 vs. AFC South)
Playoffs: None

Despite the fact that he started all four preseason games, the Jacksonville Jaguars decided late last week to bench starting QB Byron Leftwich in favor of backup David Garrard, who got the chance to start last year when Leftwich was injured. With the team coming off an exceptionally uneven 8-8 season, is this the spark the Jaguars need to make a run at the playoffs this year?

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is the decision to go with Garrard the right one? PFP makes a great point about Garrard and his supposed mobility. The public perception was that Leftwich just stood there like a statue and invited sacks with his immobile nature and goofy throwing motion. PFP disputes by looking at the Adjusted Sack Rates for Leftwich and Garrard last year. Surprisingly, Garrard's was noticeably higher than Leftwich (6.5 percent to 5.3).

The man is not a gazelle, but when we look at the results, it is clear that Byron Leftwich's mobility is not a significant problem.

Garrard threw costly interceptions in losses to Houston and Tennessee last year. The numbers don't lie: It just doesn't appear that this is a huge upgrade for Jacksonville. In fact, with their depth at quarterback in question at the outset of the season, it may rate as a huge mistake for them. Frankly, looking at their performance, I'm perplexed at Jack Del Rio's decision. It strikes me as being almost as much a personal issue as a performance one. Del Rio and Leftwich never really got along famously, and this was Del Rio's chance to rid himself of a conflict.

2. What went wrong last year? The Jaguars outscored their opponents by a rather healthy margin, weren't blown away in giveaway/takeaway ratio (-1), and beat the living crap out of the eventual Super Bowl champions. So how, exactly, did this team lose games to Houston (two!!), Washington, and Buffalo? They can run the ball, they have talented receivers, and they have a potentially great defense. Seriously, how were they just 8-8? Luckily for me, I don't have to have an answer to this. That's Del Rio's job.

3. If they can solve issues at safety, how good will this pass defense be? Corners Brian Williams and Rashean Mathis are both capable of playing at a high level. The other safety position is held down by veteran Sammy Knight, who should be solid. Gerald Sensabaugh is listed as the starter at free safety, but rookie Reggie Nelson has to be considered the future starter. With Deon Grant having moved on, the Jaguars are concerned about the middle of their secondary, but the talent is there to take care of those concerns. With all the other star power on this defense, it really shouldn't become a serious issue.

3. Tennessee Titans
Last year: 8-8 (4-2 vs. AFC South)
Playoffs: None

Memories of a 0-5 start went away quickly when Vince Young took over the offense. While the Titans were far from dominant, Young showed a great grasp of Norm Chow's offense, which Chow did a super job of tweaking to benefit Young. Young also showed a flair for the dramatic, leading dramatic wins over the Giants, Indianapolis, Houston, and Buffalo as he led the Titans to an 8-8 finish. However, it's worth noting that the Titans were indeed far from dominant, and such close wins do not tend to repeat themselves from season to season, especially when the team involved had a poor offseason.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. So who's going to catch the ball now? Top receivers Drew Bennett (St. Louis) and Bobby Wade (Minnesota) are both gone, leaving the job to - wait for it - Eric Moulds. Moulds didn't impress in Houston, and he may yield to youngster Brandon Jones as the Titans' top receiver. For Young, it will help greatly to have top TEs Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe back, and another offseason working with Chow should increase his understanding of the system. It also gives Chow more time to construct ways to make Young successful, even though the top targets from last year are gone.

2. That's not the only problem. Who's going to run the ball? The Titans enter the season with LenDale White, Chris Brown, and Chris Henry as their top three backs. White is listed as the starter for the opener, but he only has 62 NFL carries (0 touchdowns) to his name. Brown has had injury issues, and Henry is a rookie. Last
year's leading rusher, Travis Henry, now plays for Denver after a 1,200-yard season in Tennessee. The running game is a serious issue for the Titans, because it can't all revolve around Young's mobility.

3. What to do with the defensive backfield? The suspension of Pacman Jones is a serious concern, even with the signing of former Colt Nick Harper. He'll start at one corner, with Cortland Finnegan listed as the starter on the other side. Rookie Michael Griffin should be of great help by mid-season. Finnegan will also work in Jones' place as the club's top kick and punt returner. Jones, for all his off-field faults, was really beginning to round into his own as a cover cornerback and kick-return threat. Harper and Finnegan are nice players, but they don't have anything close to Jones' upside.

4. Houston Texans
Last year: 6-10 (3-3 vs. AFC South)
Playoffs: None

The talent does appear to be improving in Houston. The Texans have had some whiffs in the NFL Draft, but WR Andre Johnson, CB Dunta Robinson, and DL Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye look like keepers. Houston has a solid coach in Gary Kubiak, who managed to coax six wins out of a pretty bad team last year. Now, Kubiak is charged with transitioning to a new QB and RB, along with trying to rebuild a defense that has the aforementioned young talent, but is wrought with disappointing players and depth concerns.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is Matt Schaub the right choice? After another disappointing season, the Texans jettisoned their first-ever starting quarterback, David Carr, instead deciding to bring in former Atlanta backup Schaub. The move came after Carr was sacked 272 times in five seasons, and it didn't come without some debate among the "experts". Some said Carr was never going to work out as an NFL starter, while others decried Schaub's anointment, given his career completion rate of just 52 percent. Personally, I'm willing to see how Schaub develops as an every-week starter, something he's never been in the NFL.

2. Do the Texans have enough skill-position help for Schaub? They signed RB Ahman Green, who topped 1,000 yards last year but appears to be in decline. The depth there is solid, with Green, Ron Dayne, and Samkon Gado all available. The depth at WR behind Johnson is atrocious. Kevin Walter should start on the other side, and former Brown/Cowboy Andre Davis is the third receiver. Unheard-ofs Jacoby Jones and Jerome Mathis will also see playing time. Much like the Bills, Houston missed out on a chance to upgrade this position, but in their defense, it just wasn't a favorable year to do so.

3. Who fills the many holes on defense? Robinson is the only solid talent in the secondary. One can safely assume that the other starting corner, currently listed as Demarcus Faggans, will be picked on a bit. Last year's first overall pick, Williams, and this year's first-rounder, Okoye, are joined on the line by Travis Johnson and Anthony Weaver. DeMeco Ryans comes off a solid rookie season at MLB, but there are issues at both outside positions. The best player of that bunch appears to be Morlon Greenwood.

NFL FOOTBALL '07: AFC EAST

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the AFC East. Last year, New England never seemed to be threatened on their way to the division title. Can they run away with the division again, or will the ManGenius' Jets be ready to pose a serious challenge?

1. New England Patriots
Last year: 12-4 (4-2 vs. AFC North)
Playoffs: Beat N.Y. Jets in AFC Wild Card; Beat San Diego in AFC Divisional Playoff; Lost to Indianapolis in AFC Championship

A quick gander at the 2006 Patriots, and you wonder exactly how Tom Brady was able to cobble together a presentable passing game with these scrubs. The leading receiver, Reche Caldwell, is no longer on the team. Second-leading receiver Troy Brown starts the 2007 season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list, as does last year's fourth guy, Chad Jackson. Yet the Patriots project to have one of the top passing offenses in football this season, and it's almost all thanks to the new faces brought in this offseason.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. How will Brady mesh with his new receivers? I can't imagine this will be terribly difficult. Sure, Donte Stallworth, Randy Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Wes Welker, and Kelley Washington are going to bring different personalities to the plate. But Brady is a master at keeping everyone happy. He's also the ultimate leader in the huddle, and it stands to reason that he won't accept anyone lolly-gagging on routes or blocking assignments. The five have combined to be on zero championship teams, while Brady has three rings already in his career. Not only that, but Brady hasn't exactly been a "Trent Dilfer-type" on any of these championship teams. He's been one of the best players in the league for a while now. Even with a guy like Moss, who has always marched to the beat of his own drummer, Brady's track record has to elicit a great deal of respect.

2. Who will step up and be the star on defense? Joining Brown on the PUP list is star DE Richard Seymour, meaning he can't practice with his teammates until Week Seven. Not only that, but veteran safety Rodney Harrison will miss the first four games after being suspended. Harrison admitted to authorities that he took HGH (human growth hormone), making him the first player known to be suspended for taking HGH, a drug that lacks a reliable test. The Patriots still have some solid players on defense. Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Jarvis Green will help solidify the line, and they still have LBs Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Junior Seau, and Roosevelt Colvin running around. Oh, and they signed Adalius Thomas away from Baltimore. He might be a good addition. Despite the return from holdout of Asante Samuel, the secondary is a concern. The need still exists for a reliable #2 cornerback alongside Samuel. The better Samuel plays, the tougher it's going to be to slow down those second receivers, because no one will want to test Samuel.

3. Can Laurence Maroney carry the load at running back? No more Corey Dillon, which puts the onus on Maroney to be the feature guy. From a "Can he hold up physically?" standpoint, this isn't a problem. However, I am concerned about Maroney being able to stay fresh for all 16 games. Even in college at Minnesota, he always had a 1,000-yard rusher working with him. As good as Maroney was, he was never asked to carry the load. I don't see him physically wearing down, but I do think this is worth watching throughout the season. Bill Belichick is a master of recognizing how far to push guys.

2. New York Jets
Last year: 10-6 (4-2 vs. AFC East)
Playoffs: Lost to New England in AFC Wild Card

The Jets surprised many last season by beating New England in Foxborough and riding that win to a ten-win campaign and a playoff spot. Of course, their reward for making the playoffs was getting spanked by the Patriots again, but the Jets have shown that they are the team best-equipped to challenge New England in the AFC East.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Can the Jets figure out how to stop the run? Not many playoff teams can boast about being last in the NFL against the run, as the Jets were a year ago. A second year in the 3-4 defense should prove better than the first, when it seemed the Jets were trying to fit square pegs into round holes on the line. While the Jets were active in the offseason, they still are in need of a stout nose tackle to anchor the three-man line. They're better this year than they were last year, but my best guess says the Jets will still finish near the bottom of the table at stopping the run.

2. How much improvement will the Jets show in their running game? Leon Washington led the way with just a shade over 650 total rushing yards last year, and that won't work. Washington is still best-suited as a complimentary back, and the Jets recognized that. They traded for Chicago starter Thomas Jones, who was sharing more and more carries with youngster Cedric Benson. While Washington and Cedric Houston still fit in the mix for the Jets, Jones becomes the feature back. Coming off a 1,200-yard season in Chicago, the Jets have every reason to believe Jones is a significant upgrade.

3. Just hit us with it: Are the Jets good enough to challenge New England? Probably not. There is reason to think the Jets will be better, but will the final record reflect that? New York was relatively useless defensively last year, and while it would be nice to think they'll show vast improvement, it's more likely that the team will end up with a worse record despite being improved. PFP points out that the Jets' Pythagorean record last year was 8.7-7.3, meaning the Jets were almost 1.5 wins better than what should have been expected. That probably won't happen again this year.

3. Buffalo Bills
Last year: 7-9 (3-3 vs. AFC East)
Playoffs: None

There was a bright side to 2007 for the Bills. Young QB J.P. Losman showed a lot of progress in his development, and Lee Evans has emerged as a star receiver. The Bills shook off a 2-5 start to go 5-2 over their next seven games. The defense did get better last year. However, the offseason was not good. The Bills lost leading rusher Willis McGahee, top LBs London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes, and star corner Nate Clements, and the replacements are, well, um...

KEY QUESTIONS
1. So, yeah, who fills all those shoes? The Bills were smart to use a first-round pick on RB Marshawn Lynch. The kid is good, and while he might not step in and run for 1,500 yards this season, he gives the Bills a home-run threat in the backfield. Anthony Thomas returns as the primary backup, and he should see plenty of work as the Bills don't want to overwhelm Lynch early. Second-round pick Paul Posluszny has looked good inside, and he will start in Week One. Angelo Crowell and Keith Ellison fill the outside spots. At corner, newly-signed Jason Webster starts, as does the returning Terrence McGee. Look out here for second-year guy Ashton Youboty, who missed much of last season with injury and only dressed for three games.

(NOTE: After this particular preview was written, it was learned that Ellison is out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain. Coy Wire becomes the new starter.)

2. Is Losman-to-Evans going to get some help? Based on their offseason inactivity, the Bills clearly believe the guys they had last year are going to get better. Evans had a little help last year, but he was clearly the top dog. Peerless Price, Josh Reed, and Roscoe Parrish are all back. Red and Parrish are young enough to get better, and Price does know this offense well. It's hard, however, to say that the Bills will be improved throwing the ball. They really needed to address this position in the offseason, but in their defense, this was a dreadful year for upgrading at wide receiver without grossly overpaying for guys.

3. Will Losman get better protection? The Bills tried to address their line in free agency, but only came away overpaying for Darnell Dockery. He'll play alongside rising LT Jason Peters, a former tight end who could be the blind-side answer Buffalo has been looking for. The Bills still have some work to do on the right side, where Langston Walker will start at tackle. Any improvement here will help Losman, who still has to get better before the Bills can become a playoff contender.

4. Miami Dolphins
Last year: 6-10 (1-5 vs. AFC East)
Playoffs: None

While the Nick Saban drama really didn't help matters much last year, the Dolphins season was pretty-well screwed before Saban began flirting with Alabama. A four-game winning streak that followed a 1-6 start wasn't good enough to lift the Dolphins to playoff contention, and the Saban situation only exacerbated matters down the stretch. Now, this is Cam Cameron's team, and the aging Miami defense will be asked to work a miracle to keep this team afloat.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Trent Green? Really? Instead of drafting Brady Quinn, the Dolphins are going to roll the dice with Green, who was injured in the season opener last year, didn't return until after midseason, and looked awful most of the time when he did play. Granted, Green will probably be better than either Joey Harrington or the corpse of Daunte Culpepper were last year, but he's a Band-Aid on a six-inch stab wound. The Dolphins need more out of this position, and Green might be able to give it to them. At some point, however, they'll need to find out if either Cleo Lemon or John Beck can be the future starter.

2. Have the Dolphins surrounded Green with enough talent to be successful? Ronnie Brown is a keeper at RB, but there are issues at receiver. Chris Chambers is back, but has been underwhelming for most of his career. Marty Booker has had a nice career, but the depth is questionable. Wes Welker went to New England, and youngsters Derek Hagan and Ted Ginn might need more time to round into form. TE Randy McMichael went to St. Louis as a free agent, so the Dolphins brought in oft-injured David Martin from Green Bay.

3. Can the Dolphins win with a somewhat aging defense? Star LB Zach Thomas is 34, DE Jason Taylor is 33, free-agent signee Joey Porter is 30, DT Vonnie Holliday is 32. PFP points out that the Dolphins' front seven last year averaged 31.3 years of age, making it the oldest front seven in the league since 2001 (tying the 2005 Dolphins). Since 2001, they say the average front seven starter in the NFL was 27.6 years old. There is some youth in the person of LB Channing Crowder, DE Matt Roth, and all over the secondary.

BLOGPOLL BALLOT - PRELIMINARY

By "Preliminary", I mean "Please submit comments if you feel this is stupid".

It's due Wednesday morningish, so if someone offers a compelling argument for change by then, I'll consider it.

Rank	Team	Change
1	Southern Cal	--
2	West Virginia	2
3	LSU	--
4	Wisconsin	1
5	Virginia Tech	1
6	Florida	1
7	Oklahoma	1
8	Nebraska	1
9	Louisville	1
10	Arkansas	1
11	Texas A&M	1
12	Ohio State	2
13	California	3
14	Boise State	3
15	Texas	--
16	Oregon	2
17	Auburn	2
18	Clemson	8
19	South Florida	1
20	Miami (Florida)	4
21	TCU	2
22	Rutgers	--
23	Missouri	2
24	Hawaii	1
25	Penn State	1

Dropped Out: Michigan (#2), Florida State (#13).

There is no argument to save Michigan in the poll. They can redeem themselves against Oregon, or they can prove they don't belong. I'll entertain that argument next week if Blue wins. As for Florida State, their stay outside the Top 25 probably won't be long. I believe in Jimbo Fisher and his offense, but it was clear they weren't ready to play a top team like Clemson, who looked a lot faster than I thought they would. If they've solved their QB issue, they're going to be really good.

I vaulted West Virginia to the second spot instead of LSU, and I kept Texas at #15. LSU and Texas both won (LSU won 45-0!!), but neither looked all that great. LSU's win might have been the most underwhelming 45-0 win I've ever seen. Texas, meanwhile, was just too close for comfort against Arkansas State.

NFL FOOTBALL '07: AFC NORTH

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We begin our look at the 2007 NFL season with the AFC North. Last year, the division yielded a bit of a surprise, as their two playoff teams from 2005 - Pittsburgh and Cincinnati - both floundered to 8-8 seasons and missed the postseason. One team has a new coach, and another has a new franchise quarterback. With NFL commissioner Roger Goodell's new crackdown on bad behavior, a third team in the division can only hope to stay out of further trouble. The other just hopes to keep rolling along with the same winning formula.

1. Baltimore Ravens
Last year: 13-3 (5-1 vs. AFC North)
Playoffs: Lost to Indianapolis in AFC Divisional Playoff

The Ravens have shown the ability to win without any great contributions from their offense. Last year, they were 9th among 12 NFL playoff teams in points scored. Their offensive output was less than that of the 8-8 Bengals and Rams. However, for the umpteenth time, the Ravens led the NFL in scoring defense, allowing a scant 201 points in 16 games. While the defense basically kept Indianapolis out of the end zone in their playoff loss, the offense managed just six points and never put much of a threat together to score more than that.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Jamal Lewis averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year. Can Willis McGahee be durable while also giving the Ravens a better home-run threat? According to the Pro Football Prospectus, Lewis was much better when getting carries in succession than McGahee has shown himself to be. It's an interesting topic. Is McGahee a better fit for this offense than Lewis was? On the surface, it appears so. But a deeper examination of things brings up some doubts.

2. How much will Baltimore miss Adalius Thomas? The star DE signed with New England, but out of 11 key players in the front seven, Thomas is the only departure. Guys like Bart Scott, that Ray Lewis guy, Terrell Suggs, Trevor Pryce, and Kelly Gregg, among others, are more than capable of making Ravens fans forget about Thomas.

3. Will McNair hold up? He's not a spring chicken anymore. Frankly, I didn't think he was that impressive a year ago, and if the running game falls off at all, he'll have to do something most 34-year-olds don't do: get better.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last year: 8-8 (3-3 vs. AFC North)
Playoffs: None

Not much went right last year. The starting QB bashed his head on the cement while riding his motorcycle, then had an appendectomy during the preseason. The team started 2-6, got hot too late, and missed the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl. Their campaign showed how little margin for error NFL teams have these days. To win a title, practically everything has to go right.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is Ben Roethlisberger completely recovered and ready? He had more interceptions than touchdowns, and he didn't really look comfortable for much of the season. With Bruce Arians now calling the shots on offense, it looks obvious that the Steelers will be trying to open things up. Roethlisberger throws a pretty deep ball, and he should welcome the changes being made. His key targets all return.

2. Can the offensive line adequately protect him? The Steelers allowed an NFL-high 46 sacks last year. Now, they move on without center Jeff Hartings, who retired. Veteran guard Alan Faneca created a stir this offseason when his contract whining was met with no reaction from management. He's since announced that he won't play in Pittsburgh past this season. The starters look solid up front, but they need to play better football. With Arians looking to throw more this year, they can't afford to be as bad in pass-protection as they were a year ago. Having Roethlisberger a year removed from his injury troubles may help. While Big Ben will never remind anyone of Steve Young, he's shown the ability to be elusive and avoid hits, two things he didn't do much of last year.

3. What impact will Mike Tomlin's hire have on the defense? For now, it appears the answer is "None". The Steelers appear set on continuing their 3-4 defensive alignment with coordinator Dick LeBeau. Tomlin's background is in the 4-3 and the Tampa Two, so it's possible that Pittsburgh will employ some of that. However, their personnel and depth on the defensive line appear geared towards the 3-4. The smart money would have to be on that continuing to be their primary focus for now.

3. Cincinnati Bengals
Last year: 8-8 (4-2 vs. AFC North)
Playoffs: None

An uneven season followed the Bengals' AFC North title of 2005. Cincinnati started 3-0, then went 1-5, 4-0, and 0-3 the rest of the way. There. I looked at their 2006 results, and have told you all you need to know about last year's Bengals. While the offense looks strong again, there are enough questions on defense to make the Bengals a safe bet for another 8-8ish season.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Can Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh do it alone? They might have to. Chris Henry is out the first eight games with one of those personal conduct suspensions. Without Henry, the Bengals are incredibly thin at wideout. Well, they're incredibly thin behind one of the best one-two combinations at that position in the NFL. Johnson and Houshmandzadeh combined for 177 catches, over 2,400 yards, and 16 touchdowns last year. Methinks Carson Palmer will find a way to survive without Henry. Look out for Palmer. Remember, this is his second year since his major knee surgery. While recovery times are much better, the further away he gets from that injury, the better he'll be.

2. How about some defense, yo? The run defense got better in the second half of the season, but the secondary never really stepped up. Tory James and Deltha O'Neal, both good in 2005, were less than that a year ago. Even if they improve, can Marvin Lewis count on an aging front line to produce like they did down the stretch?

3. Will the Bengals behave themselves? Cincinnati had nine players arrested over the last year or so. Two prominent players, Henry and LB Odell Thurman, are serving suspensions for their poor off-field conduct, with Thurman's being for the entire 2007 season. Are these long and costly suspensions finally the impetus for Cincinnati's players taking the initiative and acting like grown men? Only time will tell.

4. Cleveland Browns
Last year: 4-12 (0-6 vs. AFC North)
Playoffs: None

After years of NFL Draft failures, the Browns may have finally struck gold. Not only were they able to snag a franchise-caliber LT in Joe Thomas, but GM Phil Savage elected to deal back into the first round to end the free-fall of Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn at 22nd overall. After a rather lengthy holdout, Quinn got to camp soon enough to impress in his preseason appearances. However, he will not be the Browns' opening day starter. That honor, inexplicably, goes to Charlie Frye.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. When does Quinn take over? One has to assume it won't be long. I hate putting too much stock in what you see in preseason games, but a few things stuck out about Quinn from the get-go when he played. He clearly has a keen understanding of the offense. He was comfortable in the pocket, even against exotic blitzes that he didn't see while facing the Stanford defense. He was decisive with the football, and he wasn't afraid to take a checkdown. It's hard to get a full grasp on what he can do, since he was facing a lot of guys who weren't good enough to make NFL rosters. But he was far-and-away the best-looking Cleveland quarterback in the preseason games I saw. Frye won't get that long to impress before the Browns are forced to make the move.

2. Can Braylon Edwards be more consistent this year? I think he will, especially if and when Quinn takes over the offense. Edwards looked great at times and lost at others last year. He flashed his hands and athleticism, but also struggled to get open against quality defenses. Pro Football Prospectus had a great line while pointing out that only Randy Moss had a higher percentage of passes defensed against him than Edwards did: "We're not even sure Moss was even trying to catch those balls".

(Edwards, according to PFP, had 17 percent of the passes thrown to him defensed, showing in a statistic the struggles he had getting open. Brady Quinn isn't going to fix that problem, except that he might be less inclined to force the ball to Edwards when he's well-covered.)

3. Can Cleveland make some headway in a tough division? There is no "easy division" in the NFL right now, except maybe the NFC North. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh figure to be improved, and Baltimore isn't going to drop off the face of the earth as long as they have that defense in place. With a rookie quarterback (eventually), a rookie LT, and young receivers, the presence of veteran RB Jamal Lewis won't be enough to keep Cleveland from another likely double-digit loss season.

DON'T EVEN ASK

No, I'm not allowed to vote for Appalachian State in the BlogPoll.

And, yes, I checked.

More tomorrow on a rather enjoyable Saturday.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '07: WISCONSIN

With two days to go before their 2007 opener against Washington State, here is a brief look at the Wisconsin Badgers, which I will start with a review of the 2006 season.

Record: 12-1 overall, 7-1 Big Ten (T-2nd)
Postseason: Beat Arkansas 17-14 in Capital One Bowl

The Badgers had an extremely successful first year under head coach Bret Bielema. Honestly, not a whole lot changed from the Barry Alvarez years, except that Wisconsin seemed to have more of a penchant for throwing the ball than in the past. Much of the credit went to QB John Stocco, who was marvelous in bringing along first year starters at wide receiver (Paul Hubbard and Luke Swan) and at tight end (Travis Beckum and Andy Crooks). Stocco played, for the most part, mistake-free football, and he had a keen understanding of coordinator Paul Chryst's offense. When he missed two games, Tyler Donovan filled in very well and led the team to two wins.

As usual, the power-running game was a key. Freshman RB P.J. Hill ran for over 1,500 yards despite being slowed by injuries in the second half of the season. Hill struggled in a few games, most notably against Michigan and Arkansas, and he wasn't nearly as effective in games where the offensive line had problems. Because of his size, Hill will never be the kind of shifty, playmaking back that some people like. Instead, he looks for a hole and runs straight-ahead. If given enough time to get his legs moving, he can be very hard to tackle. At receiver, the first-year guys were outstanding, with Hubbard and Swan both emerging as deep threats, Swan doubling as a guy who can serve as a possession receiver, and Beckum doing everything that was asked of him. Depth was lacking, but was never really tested.

All-American Joe Thomas led the way on the offensive line, earning himself top-five status in the NFL Draft. The other four starters struggled in pass-protection, sometimes leaving Stocco vulnerable to excessive physical contact. Notable in the group was the improvement of center Marcus Coleman, who got notably better as the season wore on. He'll be the only senior starter on the line this year.

Defensively, the Badgers were very good in pretty much all areas. The line did a very good job against the run, but maybe didn't generate enough pass rush. That void was filled by outside linebacker DeAndre Levy, who actually led the team with six sacks. CB Jack Ikegwuonu earned respect around college football because of his size and speed, and he lost any remaining anonymity when he ran down Arkansas star RB Darren McFadden to save a touchdown in the bowl game.

Entering 2007, the outlook is very good. Some might even say it's "rosy", though it may be too early to tell that for sure. The Badgers return 16 starters, including nine on offense, where only Stocco and Thomas were lost. Donovan takes over as the full-time starting QB, and he has all the targets back to throw to. That list is keyed by Beckum, who is getting recognition on a lot of preseason All-America lists. Hill returns, allegedly a bit slimmer but not having lost any of his power. If he can stay healthy, he could approach 2,000 yards running behind the horses Wisconsin has up front. Thomas is gone, but Coleman, guards Kraig Urbik and Andy Kemp, and right tackle Eric Vanden Heuvel return. Redshirt freshman Gabe Carimi surprised many by winning the job at Thomas' old LT position in fall camp. Listed at 292 pounds, he'll be the smallest of the Badgers' starting linemen, the rest of whom average close to 320 pounds.

On defense, starting end Joe Monty, MLB Mark Zalewski, and safeties Joe Stellmacher and Roderick Rogers have moved on. However, the core of the defense returns. DTs Nick Hayden and Jason Chapman are rock-solid, with both needing to flash a little more pass-rush ability. LE Matt Shaughnessy plays much bigger than his listed 242 pounds. The RE position has issues, as senior Jamal Cooper was suspended last week and then formally kicked off the team earlier this week. Senior Kurt Ware, a solid player who won't do much in terms of rushing the passer, appears set to start.

OLBs Levy and Jonathan Casillas return. Casillas is billed as the second-fastest player on the defense behind Ikegwuonu. He led the team in tackles for loss a year ago, and appears poised for a huge season. Elijah Hodge, younger brother of former Iowa star Abdul, takes over in the middle. Ikegwuonu and Allen Langford will hold down the starting CB spots, with freshman Aaron Henry expected to see time as the nickel back.

It's the safety positions that create the most questions for Wisconsin entering 2007. Sophomore Shane Carter (brother of Cris) and Aubrey Pleasant are the listed starters, but neither have started before, and they've combined for seven total tackles at UW. If teams are going to attack this defense early in the season, "deep middle" might be the best option for them.

The schedule favors a hot start. After Washington State this weekend, the Badgers travel to UNLV and host The Citadel before opening Big Ten play with back-to-back home games against Iowa and Michigan State. Trips to Illinois and Penn State after that could be problematic, but there is a good chance Wisconsin will be 9-0 when they travel to Columbus November 3. They follow that up by hosting Michigan and visiting Minnesota, two intense rivalry games.

Games against Washington State, UNLV, The Citadel, Michigan State, Northern Illinois, and Minnesota should be relatively easy wins. While Iowa, Illinois and Penn State will give Wisconsin trouble, those are all clearly winnable games.

This leaves those games against Ohio State and Michigan. Even though UW has won their last three in Columbus and beat Michigan the last time the two met in Madison, it's not reasonable to think they'll win both. I'll split the difference, and call for an 11-1, 7-1 season. That should be enough to get the Badgers into a BCS bowl game, perhaps the Rose Bowl if the Big Ten sends a team to the title game.