The Ciskie Blog: college football 08 preview

Showing posts with label college football 08 preview. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW WRAP-UP

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Illinois
4. Penn State
5. Michigan
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan State
8. Purdue
9. Iowa
10. Minnesota
11. Indiana

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State
Defensive Player of the Year: James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State
Coach of the Year: Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Coach on the Hot Seat: Kirk Ferentz, Iowa
Best Non-Conference Game: Ohio State at USC, September 13
Worst Non-Conference Game: Northern Colorado at Purdue, September 6

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 1. OHIO STATE

Virtually everything. The Buckeyes have a smart, accurate quarterback in Todd Boeckman. They have one of the best backs in the country in Chris "Beanie" Wells, a legitimate H*i*m*n threat on a team that is too loaded to really need one. They have Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie back at receiver. Ohio State also boasts two of the land's best linebackers in James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman. If that's not enough, two-time first-team All-Big Ten corner Malcolm Jenkins is back along with the entire secondary. There's a lot of motivation for redemption, considering tOSU has lost the last two national title games by a combined 79-38. As much as you and I can't stand Jim Tressel's smarminess, there's no doubt he can coach, and the Buckeyes' systems are a great fit for the talent on hand.

Needs work
You mean I have to pick something? An offensive line that was super in pass protection throughout the season allowed five sacks against LSU. Since Boeckman is something close to the polar opposite of "fleet of foot", the line has to do quite a good job of protecting him. Yes, many of tOSU's pass plays call for quick drops and quick, decisive throws, but when you have a virtually immobile quarterback, you have to protect him well. Then again, when you have Terrelle Pryor on the bench, maybe you don't worry about such things. As for other potential flaws on this team, the speed on defense is still not good enough for a national title, and the lost shoes of Vernon Gholston will be extremely difficult to fill.

Final thoughts

I'd love to pick on tOSU for losing the last two title games by a wide margin, but the bottom line is that they've blown through the Big Ten the last two seasons with a combined record of 15-1. Their only loss was Boeckman's worst game of 2007. Outside of the game at USC September 13, there isn't a loss on this schedule. An 8-0 Big Ten run is at least a 50/50 proposition. If that happens, it's possible that the Buckeyes could absorb a loss to USC and still be in the title game in January.

Tressel could be on the verge of fielding his best team after seeing his team play for three national championships in six years. It's beyond scary to think of what this team can accomplish in 2008.

Monday, August 18, 2008

BLOGPOLL 2008 - PRESEASON

It's that time of the year again.

Yes, the BlogPoll is still functional, and I'm still (somehow) invited to vote.

Here is my preseason ballot. Please offer some thoughts, as I'm not at all committed to much of any of this.

Rank	Team
1	Georgia
2	Southern Cal
3	Florida
4	Oklahoma
5	Ohio State
6	Auburn
7	Missouri
8	LSU
9	Clemson
10	Oregon
11	Texas Tech
12	South Florida
13	Virginia Tech
14	West Virginia
15	Kansas
16	Alabama
17	California
18	Wisconsin
19	Fresno State
20	Texas
21	Illinois
22	Wake Forest
23	Brigham Young
24	Penn State
25	Arizona State

Dropped Out:

Sunday, August 17, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 2. WISCONSIN

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 3. ILLINOIS

Cornerback. Seriously, Illinois could be the best in the conference at this position. All-America candidate Vontae Davis (brother of 49er Vernon) is rock-solid in every way. He's fast enough to stick with speedy receivers. He's got smooth body movement so he can change direction with little effort. He's also very physical and willing to play a part in run support. Fewer and fewer teams will throw his way, so that puts some pressure on the very capable Dere Hicks to keep a high level of play. I wouldn't be surprised if Hicks had more interceptions and pass breakups this year, even though Davis is obviously a better player. Depth is young, but very talented, as sophomore Miami Thomas is joined by freshman Patrick Nixon in competing for playing time.

Needs work
Running back. It's bad enough that Rashad Mendenhall - a very special player - turned pro early and badmouthed Ron Zook on the way out the door. But brother Walter, expected to take over the top spot, also moved on. He decided to transfer. It leaves Illinois with the always-dreaded running-back-by-committee. Daniel Dufrene leads the charge, but he's not nearly close to Mendenhall's level right now. Redshirt freshman Troy Pollard should get some playing time, too. Either way, the heat is on junior QB Juice Williams, who made strides as a passer last year but has a long way to go. Yes, this spread offense is predicated on running the ball, but Williams can't get by hitting less than 60 percent of his passes. He also needs to cut down on his interceptions (12 last year). At this point, he's obviously a better option than Eddie McGee, who filled in for Williams a couple times last year.

Final thoughts
Zook earned everything he got last year. He took a lot of heat at Florida, despite capable recruiting that set up Urban Meyer for the success he's had. Now, he's rebuilt Illinois into a credible Big Ten program by recruiting his tail off and letting his athletes perform. This year is a big test for the Illini, as they try to prove themselves as a legitimate, consistent team.

Williams has to throw better, the running game has to come together, and the defense must keep performing after losing the likes of J Leman and Antonio Steele. Starting off with Missouri won't be easy, but a great comeback effort against the Tigers last year is what really helped set Illinois up for a super season. If they're to smell the roses again January 1, they'll need to avoid losing both of their first two Big Ten games (Penn State and Michigan, both on the road). A split there sets them up for another nine-win season, or better.

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 4. PENN STATE

Wide receiver. Sounds weird to associate strength at that particular position with Penn State, but it's true. The Nittany Lions field three strong seniors on the perimeter of their offense. Deon Butler (right) is more of a playmaker, averaging over 13.5 yards per catch last year. Derrick Williams is the possession receiver, having led the team with 55 catches a year ago. Menawhile, Jordan Norwood is a smaller receiver in the mold of Butler. He led the team last year with five receiving touchdowns. This offense is helped appreciably by the departure of eminently overrated QB Anthony Morelli, who managed to hit just 58 percent of his throws to this superb group a year ago. Expect the battle between Darryl Clark and Pat Devlin to play out for the rest of fall camp before Joe Paterno and his staff decide on a starter.

Needs work
Offensive backfield. First off, you have the aforementioned battle between Clark and Devlin. The job of throwing to Butler, Williams, and Norwood is an important one, especially when you consider that leading rusher Rodney Kinlaw is gone. Sophomore Evan Royster should have the first crack at that job. Royster averaged an impressive six yards per carry in limited work a year ago. I crack at Morelli, but the bottom line is that the inexperience at quarterback will make the running game much more important. Royster has a potentially great line to run behind, but he has to prove he can handle the rigors of being the alpha dog in the backfield.

Final thoughts
Penn State lost conference games to Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State last year. Have they improved enough defensively (lost leading tacklers Dan Connor and Sean Lee) to close the gap with new starters at the two most important positions on offense? I'm not sure.

Also worth noting is the potential distraction surrounding Paterno. Whether you're talking about his future or his perceived inability (or, worse, unwillingness) to control his players, it's an issue. If any players get in trouble during the season, or if the Nittany Lions struggle, the microscope will be on the venerable coach.

In the end, road trips to Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, and Iowa in Big Ten play will be too much to come out of unscathed. I see a big season for Penn State, as nine or ten wins look likely. But that won't be enough to get close to the top of the Big Ten. There are too many potential landmines on that league slate (they play everyone but Northwestern and Minnesota).

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 5. MICHIGAN

Defensive line. The Wolverines weren't awful up front last year, but they were cover-your-eyes bad at various points of the season. For example, in allowing 491 rushing yards over those disastrous first two losses. Oh, and there's the 661 yards rushing they allowed over the last three games (two losses). But new coordinator Scott Shafer has some talent to work with. Senior tackles Terrance Taylor and Will Johnson bring a ton of experience and a combined 604 pounds to the middle of the defense. Then you have ends Brandon Graham and Tim Jamison (in the photograph). Jamison is a beast who comes to camp in the best shape of his Michigan career. Graham is no slouch, having led the Wolverines with 8.5 sacks last year. Expect a great improvement in this area, and there had better be one, because Michigan can't afford a dropoff at their most experienced - and arguably most talented - position.

Needs work
Offense. This isn't because of a talent deficiency. In fact, Michigan has quite the opposite. Guys like RB Carlos Brown, WR Greg Mathews, TE Carson Butler, and OLs Tim McAvoy, Cory Zirbel, and Stephen Schilling were all highly-recruited athletes, and guys like Schilling and Butler have plenty of experience in the Big Ten wars. However, this unit is extremely short on skill-position experience, and new coach Rich Rodriguez is overhauling the offense. Expect Michigan to field a freshman starter at QB, and only Mathews, Butler, and Schilling will start this year after being regulars a year ago. Rodriguez should have no trouble getting his spread offense implemented because of the number of new faces, but how long will it take them to get accustomed to this high a level of football?

Final thoughts

It's all about your faith in RichRod. You could believe that this offense will struggle to score points, and the schedule to open the Big Ten season - Wisconsin and Illinois both visit the Big House - will be too tough to overcome. Or you might think Rodriguez will do well getting this offense in place because he doesn't have to cater to very many veteran players on that side of the ball. Michigan's defense struggled mightily against spread-type attacks early a year ago, as both Appalachian State and Oregon used the spread to gain a combined 1,000-plus yards over the first two games.

I tend to think the most likely finish is somewhere around the middle of the pack. I can see Michigan finishing as high as third and as low as seventh or maybe eighth. I'll pick them fifth, because I do think the Wolverines will have some problems with the new system at first. Even with new starters almost all the way across the board, this new offense represents culture shock in this program compared to what they've run in the past.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 6. NORTHWESTERN

Passing offense. C.J. Bacher doesn't get much recognition, but he improved in a lot of areas last year. He got his completion percentage to 61, which is ever-so-important in the spread offense. Bacher averaged over 300 yards per game and simply needs to do a better job taking care of the ball. A 19-19 touchdown-interception ratio will not cut it again this year. Bacher leads an experienced group that boasts three senior receivers, Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, and Rasheed Ward. Expect to see Bacher take better care of the ball this year for a variety of reasons. For starters, he's more experienced, and he has another year to work with this group of receivers. It will also help him if Tyrell Sutton can stay healthy and run like he did in his freshman year. The running game was absent for much of the 2007 season thanks to Sutton's injuries. Northwestern didn't average even four yards per rush in any of their last four games, putting a lot of pressure on Bacher to do it all himself.

Needs work

Pass defense. You'd think working against Bacher and friends every day in practice would help them. It apparently doesn't. The Wildcats didn't generate any pass rush, as one-third of their sacks (six) came in a loss to Iowa. Take out that game, and Northwestern had all of six sacks in seven league games. Because of that, the secondary was torched often, allowing nearly 250 yards per game through the air, along with a staggering completion percentage of nearly 63. To turn that around, guys like ends Corey Wootton and Kevin Mims have to get up the field, and a retooled secondary, led by FS Brad Phillips, has to do a better job in coverage. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald saw the issues on defense, and he hired Mike Hankwitz as the new coordinator. Hankwitz struggled with a talented unit at Wisconsin last year, but he is a capable coach who is going to be out for redemption.

Final thoughts
Fitzgerald has done a good job keeping the ship above water in the two years since the sudden passing of Randy Walker. This is his payoff. Northwestern has the quarterback, the skill-position talent around him, the experience, and the motivation on defense to improve. Yes, they have to play Ohio State, but the Wildcats avoid Wisconsin and Penn State on the Big Ten slate. The toughest non-conference game is at Duke.

In all seriousness, there's no reason for Northwestern to miss the postseason this year. The schedule and the team are in good position to win seven or maybe even eight games if all goes well.

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 7. MICHIGAN STATE

Offensive backfield. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio had a heckuva first year at the helm, thanks in large part to the work of his offensive backfield. QB Brian Hoyer emerged as a very good player who ran his offense efficiently. However, four of his 11 picks were thrown in the Champs Sports Bowl loss. It's a performance Hoyer is more than capable of rebounding from, even without favorite target Devin Thomas. In the backfield, Jehuu Caulcrick has moved on, but Javon Ringer returns, fresh off a 1,447-yard performance. Caulcrick scored all the touchdowns (21), but Ringer is a very dangerous player if he's healthy (a problem in the past). As long as Dantonio can find a short-yardage back to take pressure off Ringer, the offense should continue to click. I'm not sure it can average 33 points per game again, but it also shouldn't have to score that much.

Needs work
Pass defense. Yikes. Talk about Jekyll and Hyde. The Spartans held three opponents under 100 yards passing (Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and Iowa - though the Hawkeyes managed to win, anyway). However, Michigan State gave up large chunks of yardage just too often to be effective on defense. They allowed nearly 300 pass yards to Bowling Green. Wisconsin threw for nearly 250 against them, which is saying something because Wisconsin didn't throw all that well a year ago. Northwestern topped 500 yards and beat MSU in overtime. Purdue nearly hit 350 yards, and Boston College got to 250. The overall numbers (58 percent completions, 220 yard average, 40 sacks) aren't terrible, but consistency will be an issue again. This isn't all on the secondary, either. The Spartans didn't get enough pass rush in Big Ten play, posting just 16 sacks in eight league games. That has to improve, because while the Big Ten isn't exactly loaded with great quarterbacks, there's enough talent and experience to burn a team that doesn't get great coverage and doesn't generate enough pass rush.

Final thoughts
I like Hoyer's leadership, and I think this offense is going to be generally very good. They run well, and Hoyer throws well. The key to this team will be the defense. Starting LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon return, as do CBs Kendell Davis-Clark and Chris Rucker. There are a lot of "ifs" on defense as they search for consistency, especially up front, where MSU has three new defensive line starters.

The schedule doesn't offer much bend, as Sparty opens at California. The Golden Bears figure to be vastly improved after a disastrous finish to their 2007 season. They also get to meet a dangerous Florida Atlantic team, and you know Notre Dame will be better this year. Dantonio did a great job to get MSU to a bowl game in his first season, but finding a way to sneak them into a second straight one might be a more impressive feat.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 8. PURDUE

Defensive front. I like what Purdue brings to the table in the front seven. Yes, they lost their sack leaders from a team that generated practically nothing for pass rush all season. However, junior end Keyon Brown played well in the bowl game, tackles Ryan Baker and Alex Magee hold up well, and senior LB Anthony Heygood is set for a breakout season. The Boilermakers should be inspired to play well this year, knowing it's the last for head coach Joe Tiller. The 12th year boss is stepping aside after this season, and former Eastern Kentucky coach Danny Hope has already been tabbed as his successor. Hope will coach an offensive line that should also be very good this year, as both starting tackles return. Senior LT Sean Sester is a solid candidate for All-Big Ten honors when the season ends.

Needs work

Passing game. Yes, Curtis Painter is a solid quarterback. He's improved his accuracy, cut down on his interceptions, and did throw for nearly 3,900 yards last year. However, there are issues. Painter is still inconsistent with his accuracy. He's the exact opposite of mobile. Oh, and there's the fact that four of his top five receivers from last year are gone. Dorien Bryant and Dustin Keller were the big targets, as they take 155 catches and 15 touchdowns with them. Will Painter revert back to his mistake-prone mode without familiar targets to throw to? Can Purdue establish a solid balance to their offense, or will he have to do it all himself?

Final thoughts
Tiller's won 83 games at Purdue, and while he won't stick around long enough to hit 100, he could conceivably hit 90 this year if things go well. Painter needs to continue to improve, new receivers have to fill some huge holes on the perimeter of this offense, and Kory Sheets has to combine with Jaycen Taylor to be a threat on the ground more often. If these things happen, Purdue will easily hit last year's average of 34 points per game, and it will be up to a defense missing five key players from last year to build on that. Worth noting is that Purdue scored just short of 19 points per game in their five losses, two touchdowns below the season average. It's a small sample, but it shows that Painter will probably continue to struggle against good defenses.

Because of that, Purdue's defense has to step up. They have tools like Heygood and Magee, but there is still work to be done in the secondary. As good as Purdue has been over the years in the spread offense, they really have a hard time defending it (see: "Lefevour, Dan"). Purdue will probably be in line for a fringe bowl once again, but they could rise up the standings if everything comes together for them.

Friday, August 08, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 9. IOWA

Defensive line. Yes, Kenny Iwebema is gone, but Iowa returns a pair of hard-charging tackles. Mitch King led the team with 14.5 tackles for loss a year ago, and Matt Kroul led all linemen with 74 tackles. King fits the Iowa mentality perfectly, as he's an 264-pound defensive tackle who plays like he's at least 295. He has a non-stop motor and a great nose for the football, which reminds you of former Iowa linemen like Aaron Kampman and Jared DeVries who have succeeded in the NFL. The Hawkeyes also have the potential to field some playmakers at the ends, especially sophomore Adrian Clayborn. The ends will benefit from a lot of one-on-one blocking as opponents look to neutralize King and Kroul in the middle.

Needs work

Passing game. I do think junior Jake Christensen is going to be a fine QB. He only threw six picks in 370 pass attempts a year ago, despite a dreadfully bad and awfully banged-up group of receivers. His best WR, Darrell Johnson-Koulianos, returns after a 38-catch freshman season. The bad news is that he scored just two times and those 38 catches led the team. Iowa wins with tough defense and a solid ball-control offense, and they don't have to give in to the pass-first tendencies of many college offenses these days. However, they do need to average better than 190 passing yards per game if they hope to avoid another season below a 20 PPG average. Worse, the running game is also a huge question mark thanks to the departures of leading rushers Albert Young and Damian Sims.

Final thoughts
Despite returning eight starters, there isn't much to like about the Iowa offense. The Hawkeyes didn't run the ball effectively, and Christensen - while staying mainly turnover-free - just didn't light up any opposing defenses. His best performance was a 299-yard game against Northwestern. His season-high was 308 in a game Iowa lost by 18 points (Indiana). He'll help himself by completing more than 53 percent of his throws, but he'll also help himself by developing a serious rapport with Johnson-Koulianos. He should be helped by a line that returns five starters and can't possibly give up 46 sacks again (31 of those came in Iowa's six losses). Unless coach Kirk Ferentz can mold the line and develop the skill positions, Iowa is doomed for another poor season. A soft non-conference schedule (outside of a trip to Pittsburgh) probably assures a six-win season, and if they can pull off an upset in Big Ten play, they have a good shot at making a bowl game.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 10. MINNESOTA

Quarterback. I really like Adam Weber. He worked behind a pretty good offensive line, yes, but for a redshirt freshman QB to start every game on a terrible team and only get sacked 13 times says something. Weber took good care of himself, and he used his mobility well. The problem for Weber was his high number of interceptions (19), which is totally correctable with experience and coaching. Not only did Weber chuck 24 touchdowns and throw for nearly 2,900 yards, but he also led the team with over 600 rushing yards. 3,500 total yards for a freshman in the Big Ten? Yeah, he's good. He's also lucky, because he gets to throw to unheralded receiver Eric Decker, who caught 67 balls last year and will get more this year now that Ernie Wheelwright has moved on.

Needs work
Defense. The Gophers were flat-out embarrassing on defense a year ago, allowing nearly 230 rush yards and over 500 total yards per game. The 37 points per game allowed represented a double-digit increase from 2006. Coach Tim Brewster welcomes a new defensive coordinator in former Duke head coach Ted Roof. The hope is that he'll find a way to clean things up, with help from a handful of JUCOs Brewster brought in. The Gophers lose three of their top four tacklers, including S Dominique Barber and two LBs (John Shevlin and Mike Sherels). Brewster is trying to inject some speed into his linebackers, but will the speed be enough to overcome a lack of starting experience at the position?

Final thoughts

The hole Brewster (right) dug in his first season is massive, but he has help. Weber is a very good talent, as is Decker. Finding a running game is key there, because Weber can't afford to take the pounding that comes along with continuing to be his team's leading rusher. Roof has a huge project with the defense, but Brewster did bring in a tremendous recruiting class and he has tremendous hopes for the unit.

The schedule isn't very forgiving (the Gophers miss out on Penn State and Michigan State, but get to play Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin all on the road. Yippee!), but it's likely Minnesota will find a way to win a league game or two this time around. Overall, something around four or five wins would constitute improvement, though it might not be enough to keep the vultures from circling. Minnesota moves into a new on-campus football stadium in 2009, and can ill afford for Brewster's big-talk act to keep producing losing seasons. After all, if they wanted the football program to suck, they would have kept Glen Mason around.

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 11. INDIANA

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

INDIANA HOOSIERS
Last year: 7-6 overall, 3-5 Big Ten (T-7th)
Postseason: Lost to Oklahoma State, 49-33, in Insight Bowl

The Hoosiers were inspired last year. After the offseason passing of head coach Terry Hoeppner, IU rallied to play for a shot at a 13th game. That 13th game, a bowl, was a stated goal of Hoeppner when he took over a program in arrears in 2005. While he didn't live long enough to see the goal through, interim coach Bill Lynch admirably carried out the mission.

While Indiana returns some talented players from last year's team, the task they are facing is a great one. They have to follow up an emotionally draining season with something that remotely resembles progress.

In good shape

The offensive backfield should be strong this season. QB Kellen Lewis (right) returns from a suspension in the spring. Assuming the lack of work in the spring doesn't somehow affect him, Lewis should be able to build off what he did a year ago. Lewis hit 60 percent of his passes and also led the team with 736 rushing yards. He accounted for 37 total touchdowns. So, yeah, he's a pretty good player. However, he stumbled badly against Wisconsin (the 33-3 loss was IU's worst of the season) and struggled with his accuracy a lot down the stretch. It would help him greatly if RB Marcus Thigpen started to live up to his potential. He ran pretty well for most of the season, but it's telling that he was held out of the end zone, something that should never happen to a player of his ability.

Needs work

Defense. The Hoosiers were flat-out abused in the Insight Bowl, as Oklahoma State racked up 49 points and over 500 yards of offense. Leading sack man Greg Middleton (pictured) returns to anchor the defensive line. He was first-team All-Big Ten last year with 16 sacks. There is a problem, though. The Hoosiers have to replace a bunch of talent lost elsewhere. Most notably, MLB Adam McClung and CB Tracy Porter both moved on, and the Hoosiers lack depth at both positions. There was a lot of work that needed to be done to begin with, but Indiana is going to find it tough to recover from the high-end losses they suffered on what wasn't a terribly good defense to begin with.

Final thoughts
It's possible that no team in the Big Ten will miss its top playmakers like Indiana will miss Porter, McClung, and WR James Hardy (75 catches, 16 TDs). It's possible to re-energize a program in the short-term by teaching players more effectively, but the kind of bad recruiting we saw at Indiana for a lot of years isn't just going to be forgotten about. Depth is important for any program, and Indiana will feel that lack of depth this season. I hate to predict a last-place finish after all they did last year, but the Hoosiers just don't have enough going for them this year.

I'm looking at a season where the Hoosiers are lucky to win more than two Big Ten games and five games overall.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: INDEPENDENTS

Weis leads a turnaround. It wasn't meant to be easy for Charlie Weis (pictured yelling), but he should see some rewards from last year as soon as, well, right now. The Irish went 3-9 a year ago. They lost eight of those nine games by double-digits, including home losses of 33-3, 31-14, 38-0, and 41-24. Weis smartly went with true freshman Jimmy Clausen at QB for nine starts. While the highly-touted Clausen did virtually nothing for most of the season, the experience he got should help him be a much better player this year. It'll also help that the offensive line is likely to yield fewer than 58 sacks this year, and the Irish are likely to gain more than 75 rushing yards per game. Look out for junior RB James Aldridge, who can't possibly be held out of the end zone again this year. Notre Dame was fairly competitive on defense for most of the season, especially when you consider how much time they spent on the field. New coordinator Jon Tenuta has some quality talent to work with this year.

Navy's coaching change. With Paul Johnson gone for Georgia Tech, Navy grabbed one of his offensive assistants. Ken Niumatalolo is the first Polynesian coach in Division I-A, and the former Navy offensive assistant plans to keep the option offense intact. The Midshipmen are lucky to return starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada (right) for a third season at the helm. He accounted for over 1,700 yards of total offense and 20 touchdowns, but is recovering from offseason knee surgery and didn't do much in the spring. Shouldn't be a problem for the experienced starter. Of more concern is the work Niumatalolo has to do on the offensive line. Three starters are gone, and the Midshipmen are - as usual - badly undersized at the position. A bright spot on a defense that was terrible against the pass last year (opponents completed almost 70 percent of passes) is that all four starters return in the secondary, and there is plenty of experienced depth after an injury-riddled season.

Western Kentucky continues the transition. The Hilltoppers were a perennial power in Division I-AA, winning national titles in 2000 and 2002. Western Kentucky moved up to I-A beginning last year, and they will join the Sun Belt officially next year. WKU plays five games against Sun Belt teams this year, but they won't count in the league standings. This is a program that will probably take a step back this year, as they have stepped up the schedule from what they had a year ago, and they will miss four of their top six tacklers on defense. With trips to Indiana and Alabama in the season's first three weeks, coach and former WKU defensive coordinator David Elson can't waste much time building that defense back up. Elson gets his starting skill players back on offense. QB David Wolke, RB Tyrell Hayden (pictured), and WR Jake Gaebler should all improve their 2007 numbers.

Army returns to tradition. Coach Stan Brock closed down spring practice. No fans. No media. Why? Because it was time to overhaul the stagnant Black Knight offense. The old tradition of the option is back. It's a good thing for Army, as they have a ton of talented running backs, and now they have an offense that will utilize the depth at the position. Word is that freshman Paul McIntosh may have the upper hand on the QB job, beating out experienced junior Carson Williams (right), who worked in Army's pro-set offense a year ago. Small senior Carlo Sandiego may also have a shot at the job. Army averaged just 88 yards per game on the ground last year. Don't be surprised if that number comes close to tripling this year. Having Temple, New Hampshire, and Akron all at home to start the season will ease the transition. Army has worked hard to soften the schedule since their days in Conference USA. Texas A&M and Rutgers are the only teams from BCS conferences on this year's slate.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, QB, Navy
Defensive Player of the Year: David Bruton, S, Notre Dame
Coach of the Year: Charlie Weis, Notre Dame
Coach on the Hot Seat: Charlie Weis, Notre Dame
Best Non-Conference Game: Notre Dame at USC, November 29
Worst Non-Conference Game: Towson at Navy, August 30

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: WAC

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

1. Fresno State
2. Boise State
3. Nevada
4. New Mexico State
5. Louisiana Tech
6. Hawai'i
7. San Jose State
8. Idaho
9. Utah State

TOP FIVE STORYLINES IN THE WAC
June Jones moves on. The biggest addition for Conference USA is the biggest loss for the WAC. Jones won 76 games in nine seasons at Hawai'i, taking the Warriors to the Sugar Bowl in his final season. Yes, the Warriors got worked by Georgia, 41-10, in the bowl, but the fact that Jones took a program on a shoestring budget ($50,000 for recruiting) as far as he did is a testament to his coaching abilities. Former UH defensive coordinator Greg McMackin takes over the head job, and he starts by making $300,000 more per year than Jones did (McMackin is slated to make $1.1 million). The longtime assistant coach has quite a task on his hands, as Hawai'i returns only nine starters from last year's 12-1 team. Early-season trips to Florida and Oregon State should only complicate the transition.

Fresno's BCS potential. As usual, Pat Hill has an interesting team in the Valley. The Bulldogs return 17 starters, including ten on offense, from a team that got hot late last season. Fresno won eight of their last ten games after a 1-2 start. They clearly found the QB to lead them into a potentially huge season in 2008, as Tom Brandstater (photo) hit nearly 63 percent of his throws and tossed just five picks in 337 attempts. He has all his skill players back. Feature back Ryan Mathews ran for 14 touchdowns, and top receivers Marlon Moore and Bear Pascoe combined for 93 catches and nine scores. Hill's defense was subpar a season ago, allowing over 400 yards per game and permitting 27 points per game. The schedule is also daunting, probably preventing Fresno from having a real shot at a BCS run. The Bulldogs play non-conference games at Rutgers, Toledo, and UCLA, host Wisconsin, and they also travel to Boise State November 28 for their WAC finale. It will take Hill's best coaching job yet to get this team to Boise with an 11-0 record, but it would be great to see a team like Fresno State rewarded for it's "anyone, anywhere, anytime" scheduling mentality.

The race for third. It appears Nevada is favored to end up third in the league. With WAC Freshman of the Year Colin Kaepernick (right) returning to run the Pistol offense, and all the offensive leaders back, Nevada should have little trouble topping the 33.5 points per game they averaged last season. Much like the rest of the WAC, Nevada's defense is leaky, and it likely keeps them from being a serious league title contender. Hawai'i has to replace record-setting QB Colt Brennan, three receivers who caught 90 or more passes last year, and offensive architect June Jones. New Mexico State has to be considered a threat to rise up the league standings. The Aggies return 14 starters, including seven on a defense that will benefit greatly from an improved offense. Hal Mumme's Air Raid offense was grounded by injuries to QB Chase Holbrook and WR Chris Williams. All the key pieces return on offense, so it's a matter of turning the ball over less and staying healthy. Holbrook is one of the more talented and accurate quarterbacks in the country, and he's all set up for a huge senior year. The other wild card in the WAC is Louisiana Tech. They have two transfers battling for the QB job, including last year's Georgia Tech starter, Taylor Bennett. Auburn transfer Steven Ensminger is also in the mix, as is sophomore Ross Jenkins. The Bulldogs won five games a year ago, despite a passing game that floundered under 200 yards per game. Improving the play out of the QB position will help LT a great deal. Getting more consistent defensive play would also be a good thing. Then again, that's a weakness all over the league.

Holbrook Chase-ing some attention. Yes, it's New Mexico State. Yes, it's Hal Mumme's gimmicky Air Raid offense. But Holbrook (right) is still something to watch. Despite battling injuries and throwing 18 interceptions, Holbrook hit 70 percent of his throws last year, and he's already the school's all-time leading passer by over 1,000 yards. Having a healthy Williams will help Holbrook (Williams caught over 90 passes in 2006), as will an improved offensive line and the experience of another year in Mumme's offense. The schedule shows visits from Boise State and Hawai'i, as well as a non-conference home game with rival New Mexico. Holbrook has a big arm, so anything he can do to impress NFL scouts is a bonus. He won't be a high draft pick because of Mumme's offense (he spends too much time in the shotgun), but his progress definitely bears watching. He's probably the highest-profile QB in this league.

Utah State continues to have problems. Try as he might, Brent Guy just can't right the ship in Logan, Utah. The fourth-year coach did lead his team to wins in each of their last two games a year ago, but that was after an 0-10 start that included losses by 51, 16, 15, and 52 points. The Aggies have to reconstruct the offense this year, as three-year starting QB Leon Jackson departs. Senior Sean Setzer and junior Jase McCormick appear to be the leaders to take over the position. A smallish USU defense allowed nearly 200 yards per game rushing, but they get back five of their front seven for this year. Guy also recruited DT Casey Davis from nearby Snow Junior College, hoping he can bolster the interior pass rush. The Aggies posted just 12 sacks last year, and no more than two in any single game. Winning more battles up front is a top priority for the defense. Opening at UNLV and Oregon, then at home against Utah, is not helpful. But Guy has the right attitude, and he continues to slowly improve the depth of the football team.

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Boise State's offense continues to evolve. The Broncos have added a quicker tempo to their attack, and they're also using some spread stuff and some of Nevada's pistol offense. They still have All-America RB Ian Johnson, who battled injuries again last season. Dick Tomey led San Jose State to a bowl win in his second season, but the Spartans fell off last year. The return of RB Yonus Davis should help SJSU improve, but it means nothing if they can't replace productive QB Adam Tafralis, who graduated. If a team like Hawai'i, New Mexico State, or San Jose State falter, it is an opportunity for Idaho to surprise. Second-year coach Robb Akey should see his offense improve, thanks to ten returning starters. He'll benefit from the decision to play now-sophomore Nathan Enderle in nine games last year. That experience will pay off, as will the play of second-team All-WAC back Deonte' Jackson.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State
Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Gingo, LB, Boise State
Coach of the Year: Hal Mumme, New Mexico State
Coach on the Hot Seat: Brent Guy, Utah State
Best Non-Conference Game: Wisconsin at Fresno State, September 13
Worst Non-Conference Game: Idaho State at Boise State, August 30

Sunday, July 27, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: SUN BELT

Florida Atlantic is the class of the league. After their first conference title and first bowl berth last season, the Owls appear poised for a run at serious respect this year. I'm sure that the administration had visions of a successful program when they started up in 2001, but the fact they've come so far so fast is a tribute to legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger. Junior QB Rusty Smith (see photo) is the star of the show on the field, off a 32-touchdown season a year ago. Smith will be helped a great bit by the returns of feature back Charles Pierre and the top ten receivers from last year's team. Junior Cortez Gant is the top pass-catcher, as he topped 1,000 yards last year. FAU does need to get better on defense, where the Owls allowed well over 30 points per game while giving up 4.7 yards per carry and a 64.0 completion percentage to opponents. Schnellenberger is working on the team's ratcheted expectations this year by saying he feels they have a real chance in the opener at Texas. They might not win that game, but the schedule sets up well for nine or ten regular-season wins.

Can Louisiana-Monroe keep going after a 5-1 finish to 2007? Oh, and one of those wins was over Alabama. Not Alabama-Birmingham, Alabama State, or Alabama A&M. Alabama. The Crimson Tide. Anyway, the Warhawks did indeed finish the season 5-1, including that huge upset. For Charlie Weatherbie's club to carry it over, they have to replace three key players who have moved on. RB Calvin Dawson ran for over 1,400 yards and scored 12 times. CBs Darrius Battles and Quintez Secka combined for 20 pass breakups and played well in coverage for a good chunk of the season, standing out on a rather poor defense. QB Kinsmon Lancaster (right) returns after showing real progress a year ago, and the new spread offense incorporated by coordinator Steve Farmer really suits Lancaster's mobility and short-passing talents. If Weatherbie can steer this team through early-season games at Auburn and Arkansas, the Warhawks are poised to make a run at a bowl bid.

Biggest shoes to fill: Omar Haugabook. In 2005, Troy managed just 16 points per game on offense. They added a touchdown to that total in 2006, Haugabook's junior year. Last year, it ballooned to 34, as Haugabook accounted for 29 total touchdowns (18 passing). Only a home loss to Florida Atlantic in the season finale kept Troy from going to a bowl game. Now, Haugabook is gone, and the coaching staff is left with three candidates to replace him. Based on what I've read, sophomore Jamie Hampton has the upper hand on the job, and he'll be fortunate to be surrounded by a strong, experienced offensive line. In Troy's spread, Hampton's mobility will be a key, as will the play of new starting RB Maurice Greer, a Colorado transfer. Quickly reloading the offense will be a huge key to success for Troy, as will their ability to replace another first-round NFL draft pick on defense (CB Leodis McKelvin).

Experienced QBs all over. Yes, Haugabook is gone, but other teams are in great shape under center. Smith returns at FAU, and we already mentioned Lancaster at ULM. Also back are Michael Desormeaux at Louisiana-Lafayette, Corey Leonard from Arkansas State, Dwight Dasher and Joe Craddock (Middle Tennessee), Giovanni Vizza of North Texas, and Paul McCall from Florida International. The most intriguing position battle in the league may be at North Texas, where Vizza - off a solid freshman season - faces a serious challenge from freshman Riley Dodge. Riley's father, Todd Dodge, is the UNT head coach and architect of the Mean Green's version of the spread. It's an offense Riley knows well from his time playing for his dad at Southlake Carroll High School in Texas.

Desormeaux developing as a passer. For Louisiana-Lafayette to make a move this year, the senior has to continue improving as a throwing QB. With over 1,100 yards rushing last year and over 2,000 yards rushing in his ULL career, there's no question Desormeaux can run the ball. If he can't pass it, the Ragin Cajuns will not do much better than last year's 3-9 record. ULL has two experienced wideouts to work with, and coach Rickey Bustle has talked openly about improving the passing game this year. If they can find a way to get even a good passing game going, a rushing attack that averaged 252 yards per game last year will only improve, and so will Lafayette's record.

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Arkansas State sports a new nickname (Red Wolves), but the same backfield they had last year. Leonard and RB Reggie Arnold (right) return after helping the offense improve by ten points per game over a miserable 2005. The Craddock-Dasher battle for the QB job at Middle Tennessee is going to be entertaining, and it might not be decided in fall camp. Craddock is a better passer, and Dasher a better athlete, leading MTU with 530 rushing yards last year. Besides Vizza vs. Dodge, the other top storyline at North Texas is the defense. They allowed a ghastly 45 points per game last year, giving up almost 500 yards per game. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that it needs to improve if UNT is to make any kind of move back up the standings. A new on-campus stadium will probably be the highlight of the season for Florida International. They'll play five games in the new digs, and while the building process is underway, there is still much work to be done for Mario Cristobal. He gets 18 starters back, and many of them are quite young.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Rusty Smith, QB, FAU
Defensive Player of the Year: Frantz Joseph, LB, FAU
Coach of the Year: Charlie Weatherbie, Louisiana-Monroe
Coach on the Hot Seat: Rickey Bustle, Louisiana-Lafayette
Best Non-Conference Game: UTEP at Louisiana-Lafayette, November 8
Worst Non-Conference Game: Alcorn State at Troy, September 13

Saturday, July 26, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: SEC

Tebow "defends" the H*i*m*n. They'd rather he were defending the national championship, but Florida fans have to settle for having one of the most explosive players in recent history in college football. Tim Tebow (in the photograph) won the H*i*m*n because he led the best offense in the nation in the nation's toughest conference. Tebow totaled 55 touchdowns and threw just six picks in 350 passes. This year will be just as good for the Gators' offense, as USC transfer Emmanuel Moody bolsters the running game, and Tebow works with the likes of Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, and Cornelius Ingram in the passing attack. Sure, defenses now have 13 games worth of film with Tebow at QB, but Urban Meyer is a smart, innovative coach, and there aren't many QBs in the nation who are better-suited for their offenses than Tebow.

Troubles at Alabama. An obviously and somewhat understandably defensive coach Nick Saban addressed concerns over Alabama's offseason disciplinary issues at SEC Media Day. He's on track in saying that the media tends to forget about the positives, but they do that because the negatives usually outweigh them. Nothing angers a fanbase more than players in the program who haven't earned the right to represent the program. And if Saban doesn't stop losing games to Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State, his contract won't be fat enough to overcome further off-field problems. At Alabama, you're either winning or you're on the hot seat. There is no third direction.

Cat fight! There are two sets of Tigers in the SEC. One of them just won a second national championship in five years. The other is averaging ten wins over the last ten years, and is probably a slight favorite in the SEC West this year. We'll start with defending national champion LSU. These Tigers probably lost too much top-end talent to be favored to repeat. Another strong QB, Matt Flynn, is gone, as are top rusher Jacob Hester, athletic Early Doucet, along with leading tacklers Craig Steltz, Ali Highsmith, and line star Glenn Dorsey. If they're to be in the SEC title game again, it's going to be on the back of their new starting QB, likely to be either Andrew Hatch or Jarrett Lee. The two split time in the spring game. Auburn, meanwhile, returns a load of experience from a team that won four of its last five after a last-second loss to LSU. Tommy Tuberville's Tigers bring back 16 starters, including leading rusher Ben Tate and top receiver Rodgeriqus Smith. Kodi Burns and Chris Todd will have a great battle in camp for the starting QB job, with Burns presenting more athletic ability. Whoever wins the job has plenty to work with in the new spread offense.

Spurrier's quarterback problem. The offense implemented and mastered by Steve Spurrier (right) needs top-notch QB play leading it. If South Carolina's spring game is any indication, this could be a rough year for the Gamecocks. The most talented of Spurrier's bunch this year is redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia, but he's suspended until August 15 and is unlikely to steal the starting job in less than two weeks of practice. That is, unless sophomore Chris Smelley and junior Tommy Beecher continue to underwhelm. As you can see, Spurrier has a problem on his hands. The defense is in place for Carolina to make a run, and there is plenty of skill-position talent, but if Spurrier can't solve the quandary under center, the Gamecocks will be on the edge of bowl eligibility again.

Nutt or Petrino? Arkansas got rid of Houston Nutt for really no good reason. There were some issues in the program, but it wasn't anything that caused the team to be bad, and the Razorbacks weren't loaded with troublemaking players. However, talented backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones parlayed 1,000-yard seasons in Nutt's offense into first-round status in the NFL Draft. If there's anything good about the turnover, it means Bobby Petrino can more easily transition into his wide-open offense. Petrino quit on the Atlanta Falcons, and he deserved every bit of criticism he got for the move. However, his decision was born out of the mistake he made in leaving college football to begin with. Petrino has to build his offense around the iffy Casey Dick this fall, but he should have no trouble eventually making a winner out of the Razorbacks. Nutt moved to Ole Miss to replace the fired Ed Orgeron. While Orgeron wasn't much of a game coach, he did prove himself as a recruiter, and Nutt will benefit from that. I don't have the guts to pick them ahead of Alabama, because I'd still like to think Saban can win nine games with even an average football team. However, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Nutt get the Rebels to the upper half of the West Division in short order.

BEST OF THE REST

Georgia figures to be a preseason number one team, thanks to the play of QB Matt Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno (pictured), and defenders like Geno Atkins, Dannell Ellerbe, and C.J. Byrd. The Bulldogs have to survive early-season trips to South Carolina and Arizona State, but they're a top contender in the SEC and in the country. Offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe left for Duke, so Tennessee reloads with new coordinator Dave Clawson and tries to replace long-time starting QB Erik Ainge. The Volunteers struggled for much of the year on defense, and that may be the key to their season. Losing top-notch talents like QB Andre Woodson and RB Rafael Little hurts Kentucky a great deal. The Wildcats just don't have the depth in their program to replace both. Struggling Vanderbilt replaces 13 starters, including top receiver Earl Bennett, but the administration has shown great patience with coach Bobby Johnson. He's really doing a solid job, despite his 20-50 record. How far they've come without reaching a postseason game should show how bad this program truly was before Johnson arrived. It was a pleasant surprise to see Mississippi State in a bowl game last year, but it will be a tough task to repeat the feat. They scraped by in three of their regular-season wins, and still got blown out by LSU, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Sylvester Croom gets 14 starters back, but this team could easily post an inferior record while playing better football.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Defensive Player of the Year: Geno Atkins, DT, Georgia
Coach of the Year: Houston Nutt, Mississippi
Coach on the Hot Seat: Nick Saban, Alabama
Best Non-Conference Game: Auburn at West Virginia, October 23
Worst Non-Conference Game: Tennessee-Martin at Auburn, November 8

Friday, July 25, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: PAC 10

Serious losses at Cal, Oregon. The job of chasing down USC atop the league certainly became more difficult for the two next-best teams in the league. There's no question that Jeff Tedford still has a talented team in Berkeley, but the Bears are going to have to make due without leading rusher Justin Forsett (1,546 yards, 15 TD), along with the top five pass receivers. That list includes DeSean Jackson and Lavelle Hawkins, who combined for 127 catches a year ago. They doubled as Cal's top punt and kickoff returners, respectively. Nate Longshore is back under center, and everyone is high on sophomore RB Jahvid Best (pictured), who averaged 7.6 yards per carry in spot duty last year. Meanwhile, Mike Bellotti doesn't have it much easier. QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart, who combined for almost 4,500 yards from scrimmage and 40 touchdowns last year, have both moved on. There is talent abound at both positions (including impressive-looking sophomore QB Nathan Costa (among seven candidates in the spring) and senior RB Jeremiah Johnson, but the Ducks have to find a way to integrate the new starters quickly, as Washington, Purdue (away), and Boise State are among their first four games.

No one schedules better. More schedule whining here. When I wrote up this idea, I was astounded to see how much better the Pac-10 was at non-conference scheduling when compared to everyone else in the country. Even the league's worst programs in recent years (Arizona, Washington, and Stanford) have done a pretty good job. Arizona plays solid mid-major Toledo and travels to New Mexico. Washington gets BYU, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame (!) at home. Stanford hits the road for TCU and Notre Dame. That's not bad. The only Pac-10 team to play a I-AA (er, FCS) opponent is Arizona State (Northern Arizona), and they make up for that by hosting possible preseason #1 Georgia September 20. Other marquee matchups include Ohio State-USC, California-Maryland, Oregon-Purdue, Oregon State-Penn State, and Tennessee-UCLA. Other leagues should be ashamed of their scheduling, especially considering they have an extra non-conference game (the Pac-10 plays a nine-game league schedule, meaning teams only have three NC games to schedule).

The hot seat returns for Ty Willingham. He never seemed to get off it at Notre Dame, and now he has to deal with it at Washington. Willingham (pictured) took over a mess of a program when Keith Gilbertson got fired, and while he's made some progress in three years, a step back in 2007 leaves his future in doubt. A promising 2-0 start was quickly shot to hell by six straight losses, including four at home. Willingham is 11-25 at UW, and he probably needs a bowl appearance to feel good about things. That will be a problem, thanks to that aforementioned non-conference gauntlet, along with five road games in league play. While the seat is hot for Arizona's Mike Stoops, he is probably in better shape. The hiring of Sonny Dykes to coordinate the offense worked out last year, and ten starters return. Among them is senior QB Willie Tuitama, who's been through quite a bit in his first three years. Leading rusher Nicholas Grigsby and 1,000-yard receiver Mike Thomas are both back, along with four offensive line starters. If Stoops can make something of a depleted defense that was abused in Pac-10 play last year, the Wildcats should go bowling for the first time since 1998.

Rick Neuheisel returns to coaching. I'm sure Washington fans will welcome him back to Seattle with open arms on November 15. Well, open arms and middle fingers, that is. Neuheisel, who caused a few problems at Washington in his last college head-coaching gig, is now at UCLA, where success might not be immediate, but it's probably imminent. If nothing else, Neuheisel has two of the top coordinators in the game. He got Norm Chow back to college football to run his offense, and DeWayne Walker sticks around to handle the defense after coaching the Bruins in their bowl game. Last year's team was jam-packed with experience, so there is some building to do, but it won't take long to get this program going strong. USC now has competition in Los Angeles, though Neuheisel has some work to do before people start confusing him for Pete Carroll.

USC reloads on offense. The league champs (again) and Rose Bowl champs (again) have never had any serious problems replacing star players. Matt Leinart stepped in for Carson Palmer. John David Booty followed their act. Chauncey Washington got some serious help over the last two years filling in for Reggie Bush and LenDale White. This year, they're going to do it again. Booty is gone, giving way to Mark Sanchez, who will be shadowed by Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain. Washington leaves, but Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight (pictured) lead the charge to be the Trojans' feature back. While leading receiver Fred Davis, a tight end, is gone, the top wideouts all return for Sanchez. Where Carroll's recruiting magic better have worked is along the offensive line, where only LG Jeff Byers returns from last year. Of course, the Trojans return enough great players to field the league's best defense, and if that happens, Sanchez can go ahead and play with a blindfold on and it probably won't keep USC from winning nine or ten games again.

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If Arizona State gets it done against Georgia, look out. The Sun Devils are deep and talented at the skill positions. While they're still a bit smallish up front on defense, they could be a darkhorse threat to win the league. Five returnees in the Oregon State secondary have combined for 98 career starts. The bad news? That's pretty much it for experience on defense. Re-energizing a passing attack that flat-out stunk last year has to be a priority for the Beavers' offensive coaches. While Jim Harbaugh led Stanford to a world-shocking win over USC last year, the Cardinal did still manage to finish 4-8, and they lost to one of the worst Notre Dame teams any of us will ever see. Don't be shocked if Michigan transfer Jason Forcier gets a shot at unseating incumbent starter Tavita Pritchard if the latter struggles early. Welcome to big-time college football, Paul Wulff. The former Eastern Washington coach takes over at Washington State this year. His program lost eight scholarships because of another bad APR. Legal problems have taken a few other guys away. Only 36 letterwinners return from a 2007 team that underachieved and ended up 5-7. Wulff will need time to fix up his alma mater.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Rudy Carpenter, QB, Arizona State
Defensive Player of the Year: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Coach of the Year: Mike Bellotti, Oregon
Coach on the Hot Seat: Mike Stoops, Arizona, and Tyrone Willingham, Washington
Best Non-Conference Game: Ohio State at USC, September 13
Worst Non-Conference Game: Northern Arizona at Arizona State, August 30

Sunday, July 20, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: MOUNTAIN WEST

BYU = BCS? Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has coined the phrase "Quest for Perfection" to describe the upcoming season. They've won ten in a row since a loss to Tulsa in their third game of 2007. Efficient, accurate QB Max Hall now has 13 starts under his belt. The top rusher and top four receivers return. Things are setting up well in Provo. Hall (right) threw 26 touchdowns a year ago, and he gets to throw to Austin Collie, Dennis Pitta, and Michael Reed again. Harvey Unga returns as feature back after compiling over 1,800 yards from scrimmage last year. Mendenhall does have to patch together a defense, but he gets to build it around athletic DE Jan Jorgensen, who picked up 14 sacks last year. MLB David Dixon is the only returning starter who doesn't play on the defensive line. Guys like Scott Johnson, Brandon Howard, and G Pittman aren't experienced corners, but they're plenty talented to handle starting assignments.

Utah looks to rebound from injury-riddled season. Starting QB Brian Johnson (right) missed significant time and was probably never 100 percent. Starting RB Matt Asiata broke his leg in the season opener. Leading receiver Brent Casteel blew out his knee in the Utes' second game. As a result, it took quite some time for Utah's offense to find its footing. By the time it finally did, the Utes were staring up from a 1-3 hole. They finished by winning eight of their last nine, including a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. With that in mind, Johnson, Asiata, and Casteel are all going to be healthy. Add to that RB Darrell Mack (also pictured), who stepped in and ran for over 1,200 yards, and WR Brandon Godfrey, who caught 50 passes and is Utah's leading returning receiver. Oh, and Kyle Whittingham still has guys like DEs Koa Misi and Paul Kruger, along with OLB Stevenson Sylvester, on the defense. While this is likely to be a very good team again, their top-end players don't quite match up to BYU's.

Colorado State changes coaches. Sonny Lubick did great things in Fort Collins. He won 108 games in 15 years, led the Rams to nine bowl games, and he also won or shared six conference championships, most recently in 2002. Lubick struggled to get this program going in recent years, however. The Rams have won just sven games over two years, haven't won a bowl game since the 2001 New Orleans Bowl, and the administration convinced Lubick to retire after last season. Enter Steve Fairchild, a former CSU QB and most recently the offensive coordinator for the NFL's Buffalo Bills. Fairchild has quite a task in front of him, and making it tougher is the fact that the Rams return just 12 starters. In a way, this is a good thing, as Fairchild has no reason not to conduct a competition for most, if not all, starting positions. The offensive coaches took an unusual step to helping the new QBs out. They've programmed their passing plays into Madden 08 for the PlayStation 2, and the four candidates take turns playing it every day. Fairchild was a good hire, but this rebuild is going to take a while.

Wyoming tries to bounce back. The Cowboys' 2007 collapse was capped by coach Joe Glenn's embarrassing one-finger salute toward the Utah sideline after an onside kick. Glenn had guaranteed a win over Utah, and the Utes apparently decided a 43-0 lead wasn't enough. Your mileage may vary on the Utes' decision to onside, but you can't justify Glenn's inability to control his emotions. A 4-1 start crumbled away in a 1-6 finish. After the loss to Utah, Wyoming got blown out by BYU and upset by Colorado State. The talent exists for Glenn to engineer a turnaround. Junior QB Karsten Sween, senior RB Devin Moore (pictured), and junior WR Greg Bolling lead the offense, which sports all five starters from last year on the offensive line. Three junior linemen (Mitch Unrein, Fred Givens, and John Fletcher) and senior LB Ward Dobbs are the best players on defense. Glenn expects seniors Michael Ray and Quincy Rogers to provide stability in the secondary.

Air Force tries to follow a great year. Troy Calhoun maxed out the talents of his players a year ago, leading them to a nine-win season that included wins over Mountain West powers TCU and Utah. The Falcons have to find a way to follow up on that this year, and it is going to be potentially tougher than last year was for Calhoun. To do it again, he and his staff are going to have to max out the talents of 14 new starters, including a new QB, new RBs, and new receivers. Defensively, Air Force has to find new starting corners and replace most of its LB depth. The biggest loss is that of QB Shaun Carney, who totaled over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and directed the offense to nearly 30 points per game, increasing production by nearly a touchdown per game from a year earlier.

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Gary Patterson has won at least ten games four times in seven years at TCU, and this team has the talent to make it five out of eight. An uncharacteristically leaky defense should be healthier, and the Horned Frogs have plenty of experience on offense. Quick: Name the only Mountain West school to be bowl-eligible each of the last seven years. You probably got it wrong, as it's not likely you'd guess New Mexico. The Lobos snapped a 46-year bowl win drought last year with a 23-0 win over Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl, and Rocky Long hopes his young team can find a way to get back to the postseason this year. No seat is hotter than that of Mike Sanford at UNLV. The Rebels have won just six games in three years, though things are looking up this season. Omar Clayton and Travis Dixon are locked in a solid QB competition heading into fall camp. Sanford finally has some experienced receivers and runners to operate his spread offense. It's up to those players to stay healthy, and the defense to improve quicker than it has been. Losing a starting QB isn't something that is going to lead to higher expectations when your team is coming off a 4-8 season. San Diego State has to replace Kevin O'Connell, along with leading receivers Brett Swain and Chaz Schilens. Of course, a defense that allowed a staggering 34 points per game is going to have to come around for Chuck Long if his team is to climb into the upper division of this league.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Max Hall, QB, BYU
Defensive Player of the Year: Jan Jorgensen, DE, BYU
Coach of the Year: Gary Patterson, TCU
Coach on the Hot Seat: Mike Sanford, UNLV
Best Non-Conference Game: Utah at Michigan, August 30
Worst Non-Conference Game: Stephen F. Austin at TCU, September 6