Saturday Hockey Notes and Thoughts: Bulldogs Build a Snowman in Rout of Mavericks

Had no idea what to expect this weekend at Amsoil Arena.

Never would have guessed "UMD by six" in the series opener, but that's exactly what we got.

The Bulldogs won going away 8-2, scoring the most goals in a game since November of 2009, when some guy named Justin Fontaine scored four in an 8-1 win over Michigan Tech.

11 UMD players had at least one point, while six had at least two. Kyle Osterberg and Justin Crandall each had three. Tony Cameranesi scored the first two goals inside of the game's first ten minutes. So, yeah, that line was going.

Meanwhile, UNO's stud line of Dominic Zombo, Josh Archibald, and Jake Guentzel were held to a fat goose-egg at even strength. Archibald's only contribution to the scoresheet was a cheap elbow to Cal Decowski's head that got him ejected from the game in the third period.

(To be fair, it looked like goalie Aaron Crandall was cheating toward Archibald, who was at the bottom of the left faceoff circle, when Michael Young snuck a shot by his glove for a second period PPG.)

Zombo scored a power play goal, and Guentzel assisted on both UNO goals, which were both on power plays. The guys responsible, primarily, were Dominic Toninato, Alex Iafallo, and Adam Krause. Toninato won draws all night, and they hounded the puck when they didn't have it, keeping scoring chances to a minimum for the befuddled Mavericks. Safe to say we'll see that matchup again Saturday, with the Zombo line challenged to play better and get Archibald open for some scoring chances.

UMD jumped UNO early, outshooting the visitors 18-5 in the first period. Only having a 2-1 lead could have been discouraging on a different night, but not this one. The Bulldogs kept putting on pressure, and goalie Ryan Massa was simply overwhelmed. Coach Dean Blais pulled Massa after the fifth UMD goal, a laser of a one-timer by Osterberg. Freshman Reed Peters offered little resistance, stopping six of eight shots, and UMD threw in an empty-netter when Blais went without a goalie during a chunk of four-on-four hockey midway through the third.

Osterberg, Cameranesi, and Justin Crandall combined for 14 shots on goal and five goals, with Cameranesi and Crandall getting two apiece.

UNO won't just go away. This team didn't score five or more five times over an 11-game span by accident. The Bulldogs sapped their will on Friday, thanks to physical play, a relentless forecheck, and great puck possession. It won't be this easy again on Saturday. Expect the Mavericks to push back, and the Bulldogs will have to play another smart game, take care of the puck, and hound it when they don't have it.

One negative: I thought UMD's defensive zone play got a little soft for a stretch of the third when it was 5-2. It didn't lead to anything, really, but it's the kind of thing that can burn the Bulldogs against a dangerous offensive team if they keep it up. Just a few lazy passes leading to turnovers. When you win by six, it can be glossed over, but Saturday will not be a six-goal game.

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Plus/minus is dumb when taken in the context of a single game. But this is supposed to be fun, right? So let's have some fun with Friday's numbers.

Carson Soucy and Andy Welinski were each plus-four. Osterberg, Cameranesi, and Justin Crandall were all plus-three. UMD had only three skaters who weren't pluses. UNO had four skaters who weren't minuses. Nick Seeler was minus-five, while Tanner Lane was minus-four.

Among skaters, Soucy now has the team lead at plus-ten, while Osterberg is plus-eight and Crandall plus-seven for the season.

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Elsewhere in the NCHC, results have rendered Saturday a meaningless game for UNO. The Mavericks are 28th in the Pairwise, and one win isn't going to lift them to even bubble team status. North Dakota's 2-0 win over Western Michigan clinched home ice for the Mavericks next weekend. Only question is whether they're seeded third or fourth.

In Grand Forks, Stephane Pattyn and Luke Johnson scored 18 seconds apart late in the second period to lift UND. Zane Gothberg was perfect on 18 shots for his second collegiate shutout and first at The Ralph. With a regulation win, North Dakota is in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed in the NCHC playoffs and the right to host Miami in a best-of-three next weekend. UND needs to match what SCSU does in Saturday's season finale to hold on to the top seed. Western can no longer get home ice, no matter what happens Saturday.

St. Cloud State's top six forwards were unbelievable in a 7-4 win at Colorado College that kept the Huskies in line to potentially share the Penrose Cup. Joey Benik had two goals and three assists, Jonny Brodzinski picked up a hat trick, Kalle Kossila had four assists, and Jimmy Murray one goal and two assists. T'was more than enough for Ryan Faragher, who stopped 30 of 34.

At Magness Arena, Denver stayed alive for home ice by beating Miami 5-2. Emil Romig, Zac Larraza, Joey LaLeggia, and Nolan Zajac all had one goal and one assist each for Denver. Goalie Sam Brittain made 36 saves. Want a microcosm of Miami's season? Matt Marcinew was ejected for a hit from behind, and Miami had a long power play going into the third period with the score 3-2. The power play lasted all of two minutes before the RedHawks took a bench minor for too many men to negate the power play for two minutes. It's been that kind of year.

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Now, what you all have probably been waiting for.

What has to happen Saturday for UMD to get home ice?

The Bulldogs clinch it themselves with a win in regulation or overtime. That actually would put UMD in third.

UMD also clinches home ice with a shootout win, which would lock the Bulldogs in fourth.

If Omaha wins a shootout, UMD would need Denver to go to a shootout with Miami, at the minimum. If UMD loses a shootout and Denver wins in regulation or overtime, the Bulldogs would finish fifth and hop a bird to Denver next weekend.

If UMD does not gain any points Saturday, it needs Denver to lose -- regulation, overtime, or shootout would work just fine.

Potential opponents are whittled to Western Michigan and Denver. UMD will not travel to Kalamazoo under any circumstances. If the teams meet, it will happen in Duluth. Denver is the only team UMD could play on the road. The Pioneers could also end up in Duluth.

Either way, a lot on the line Saturday night.

UMD Seeing Lots of Shepherds

MANKATO, Minn. -- Oh, the things you do when you're bored. After walking around downtown Mankato, I fielded a call from a friend, and was immediately inspired to start doing some counting.

For UMD's series against Minnesota State, the assigned referees are Brad Shepherd and Todd Anderson. While it should be noted that I don't know either individual and certainly have nothing personally against them, it did make me start thinking a little bit.

When the same pair worked UMD's series in Omaha a month ago, my brain started churning, but I didn't do the research.

After seeing Brad and brother Derek for three out of four WCHA series since that weekend, I really started thinking.

As it turns out, UMD will have played 32 games this season as of Saturday night. Of them, either Derek or Brad Shepherd will have worked 16 of them. The two have combined to work two-thirds of UMD's 24 WCHA games this season.

That's a lot for two guys. Derek has worked with Marco Hunt for each of the six games (three weekends) UMD has had him for, while Brad Shepherd has worked two series with Todd Anderson and three with CJ Beaurline.

Conversely, UMD has only seen Don Adam and Timm Walsh once (last weekend). Brad Shepherd has worked ten UMD games. Adam and Walsh two each.

So that has to lead the WCHA, right?

Well, I went through each team's WCHA schedule, counting games worked by a referee named Shepherd. I did not distinguish between league games and non-conference games, nor was I watching for specific opponents or locations.

Here are the totals, listed alphabetically.

Alaska Anchorage: 30 games played, four refereed by Shepherds (13.3 percent)
Bemidji State: 32 games played, 12 (37.5)
Colorado College: 30 games played, eight (26.7)
Denver: 32 games played, four (12.5)
Michigan Tech: 32 games played, ten (31.25)
Minnesota: 33 games played, nine (27.2)
UMD: 32 games played, 16 (50)
Minnesota State: 34 games played, six (17.6)
Nebraska Omaha: 32 games played, nine (28.1)
North Dakota: 31 games played, ten (32.2)
St. Cloud State: 32 games played, ten (31.25)
Wisconsin: 30 games played, ten (33.3)

Someone who is much smarter than I am can try to analyze what it all means. Obviously, the Shepherds all live in the Cities, so there might be something to be said for them working UMD games, since they'll be home by 1am Sunday when they do.

However, of those series, one was in Omaha (approximately five hours from the Cities), one was in Houghton, one was in Alaska, and one was in Madison. So half of the 16 games haven't been worked in the state of Minnesota, meaning the "close proximity to the Cities without working too many Gophers games" theory really doesn't hold much water.

Is there something behind this, or is it just the luck of the draw?

Familiarity with officials isn't a terrible thing, because they are not thrown off by your style of play. However, it opens up the possibility of personal biases being cultivated over the course of a long season, too. That's why it's usually a good idea to spread out the assignments.

It's a bit of double-whammy for UMD. On one hand, they probably don't see the Shepherds nearly as much if the team wasn't so relevant. On the other, these are the same guys who will work games in the WCHA playoffs.

Of course, if UMD makes the NCAA Tournament, they are guaranteed to not see a Shepherd -- or any WCHA official -- again. So maybe it's not really all that bad a thing in the end.

Whether it's just luck of the draw or whatever, it's interesting to look at.

Potential Significance of UMD-Clarkson is High

CANTON, N.Y. -- Last year, UMD didn't miss the NCAA Tournament by much. While my math isn't good enough to run numbers and confirm anything, it's reasonable to suggest that if any one of five losses by UMD over the second half of the season in winnable games (at Vermont, at Bemidji State, vs. Bemidji State, at Michigan Tech, and at Alaska-Anchorage) had been wins instead of losses, the Bulldogs would have gone dancing.

Being close isn't good enough, and the best way to avoid letting a computer decide your fate is to just win games.

Of course, life isn't always that easy.

Right now, UMD is 13-4-3, pending Tuesday's game with Clarkson. According to the version of the Pairwise currently available at CHN, UMD sits at No. 6 in the Pairwise after Monday's 4-1 win in Potsdam. That puts them safely in the NCAA field, but we've got a lot of hockey left to play.

Because there's so much season left, Tuesday's game for UMD is a highly significant one. Here's why.

In the Pairwise, each team eligible (the top 25 of the RPI -- also known as Teams Under Consideration) is compared to one another in four different categories. Those are RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), Head to Head (when applicable), Record vs. Teams Under Consideration (TUC), and Record vs. Common Opponents (when applicable).

Because there simply aren't many WCHA vs. ECAC regular-season games, each one that is played gets over-valued in a sense. It's the nature of this system, and everyone is playing under the same rules. UMD's games against Clarkson are the only time this season they will see an opponent from the ECAC. Clarkson, meanwhile, will play every other team in the ECAC, including Yale, RPI, Union, Princeton, and Dartmouth, all of whom are currently in the Pairwise.

If UMD can beat Clarkson, they will help themselves immensely. Clarkson is unlikely to go the rest of the season without a win. They're a good team with a good record, and there are plenty of chances for them to beat a top team the rest of the way. Clarkson plays Yale, RPI, and Union twice each before the regular season ends. Every time one of those teams fails to beat Clarkson, it's a win in the Pairwise for UMD. The Golden Knights will not be the only common opponent for UMD and Yale, Union, or RPI, but they will be one of few.

Yale played (and won) at Colorado College. UMD hasn't played CC yet, but will visit in late February. RPI also visited CC, getting a loss and tie for their efforts. The Engineers don't share any other opponents. Union played Minnesota (win) and Bemidji State (loss) at the Gophers' tournament this past weekend, and the Dutchmen also beat Alaska-Anchorage in Fairbanks.

That makes Union 2-1 against those common opponents so far. UMD is 3-1-2 (two wins vs. UAA, a win and tie vs. Bemidji, and a loss and tie vs. UMTC). The Bulldogs still have two games left with Minnesota, and the games with Clarkson will count in that comparison once Union plays Clarkson this weekend.

Not only would a sweep of Clarkson help the Bulldogs in these individual comparisons, but it's a huge get if Clarkson plays well enough down the stretch to stay among the TUC teams. Record vs. TUC only counts if you have ten games against TUCs within a comparison (head-to-head games don't count; for example, when you compare UMD and North Dakota, their games against each other are eliminated from the TUC record, and because of that, the comparison isn't counted yet because UMD doesn't have ten games against other TUCs).

It's a bit early to pay much attention to the ebb and flow of the rankings, but it's not too early to understand what games are potentially significant to rankings and (maybe) seedings down the road.

I will now depart from the nerdery. Talk to you later from Potsdam.