Saturday, March 18, 2017

Game 38: North Dakota vs UMD (NCHC Championship)

MINNEAPOLIS -- Here we go with the 2017 NCHC Frozen Faceoff Championship.

UMD will face longtime rival North Dakota for a fifth time this season, trying to extend its program-record five-game winning streak over UND.

On Beyond The Pond (KFAN/92.1 The Fan) Saturday, head coach Scott Sandelin acknowledged UND "probably has this one circled, we've had success against them."

And that's probably an understatement.

"We've got a lot of respect for them," North Dakota coach Brad Berry said after Friday's 1-0 semifinal win over Denver. "We play similarly, we play hard, and we're looking forward to (Saturday). They've had our number all year, and the year before was the other way around."

Should be a great game. North Dakota has won five straight, and used a smothering defensive effort to get by Denver. The Fighting Hawks have outshot their adversaries in each game of this run, and oddly enough actually outshot UMD in two of the four meetings this season -- got shut out in both those games.

Denver beat Western Michigan 3-1 in a gripping third place game. Denver won without its top four scorers, as Troy Terry, Henrik Borgstrom, Dylan Gambrell, and Will Butcher all sat, and also starting goalie Tanner Jaillet. WMU played freshman Ben Blacker in goal, but was still without Sheldon Dries and Wade Allison up front. DU clinched the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, so UMD is playing for the No. 2 spot in this game. The Bulldogs could fall to third with a loss to UND, depending on other results.

Lines?

Lines.

UMD
Iafallo - Toninato - Anderson
Osterberg - Johnson - Mackay
Tufte - Peterson - Kuhlman
Young - Thomas - Exell

Pionk - Kotyk
Raskob - Hilderman
Wolff - Molenaar

Miska - Shepard - Deery

UND
Gersich - Jost - Poganski
Janatuinen - Gardner - Boeser
Smith - Simonson - Olson
Yon - Bowen - Gornall

Poolman (Colton) - Poolman (Tucker)
Ausmus - Peski
Wolanin - Shaw

Johnson - Hrynkiw

PairWise Notes and Thoughts: The Final Day is Upon Us

MINNEAPOLIS -- Greetings from downtown Minneapolis, where the sirens are loud and the buildings are tall.

This is the final day of the season in college hockey. There are six conference championship games that will decide automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament. Most of the teams involved don't need those automatic bids to get in, but there are still a few teams' seasons on the line.

Before we get to that, the schedule for Sunday's selection announcements was sent out Friday by ESPN PR.

10am - The four No. 1 regional seeds are announced on Twitter @NCAAIceHockey.
10am hour - ESPN host and Frozen Four VOX John Buccigross will tweet which regionals the No. 1 seeds are assigned to @buccigross.
11am - NCAA Selection Show airs on ESPNU to show all four regionals in full; game times and TV will be announced for each regional (we don't know any of them yet).

The two Friday/Saturday regionals next weekend are Fargo and Providence. Saturday/Sunday regionals are Cincinnati and Manchester. Of the four, only Fargo is sold out, which means very limited tickets available for UMD fans (UMD will have an allotment to sell, but it isn't much, and priority season ticket holders will get first shot).

Of course, Fargo is also the only one within reasonable driving distance. Take the good with the bad, I suppose.

Anyway, here are the games for Saturday.

Atlantic Hockey: Air Force vs Robert Morris (winner in, loser out)
WCHA: Bowling Green at Michigan Tech (winner in, loser out)
Hockey East: Boston College vs UMass-Lowell (BC out with a loss, UML in either way)
Big Ten: Wisconsin vs Penn State (Wisconsin out with a loss, Penn State in either way)
ECAC: Harvard vs Cornell (both teams in)
NCHC: UMD vs North Dakota (both teams in)

College Hockey News' Probability Matrix is a good resource when it comes to who will get in. Between that and the predictor tools readily available on the internet box, the following is clear:

The following teams are in the tournament, no matter what happens Saturday: Denver, UMD, Harvard, Western Michigan, Minnesota, Boston University, UMass-Lowell, Union, North Dakota, Cornell, Penn State, Notre Dame.

As explained above, Atlantic Hockey and the WCHA will each be one-bid leagues. Further, the Bowling Green-Tech winner will be the No. 16 overall seed. If Robert Morris beats Air Force, it will be the No. 15 overall seed. If the Fighting Serratores win, they quite possibly will be above the No. 15 spot (looks like No. 12 is the most likely landing spot if Air Force wins).

Right now, Providence and Ohio State are the last two at-large teams in. If we have straight chalk in the Big Ten and Hockey East, those two teams will get in, knocking Boston College and Wisconsin out. If either Boston College or Wisconsin win (but not both), Ohio State is sent packing. If both BC and UW win, Providence is out, too.

A Western Michigan non-loss in the NCHC third place game likely means the NCHC will have three of the top four overall seeds. UMD and Denver are locked into the top three, no matter what happens. Western joins them if it doesn't lose to Denver. That's it. A win or tie will do just fine. And if last year -- when Denver played its backup goalie and a handful of guys who weren't lineup regulars -- is any indication, Western has a real shot. Even if WMU rests guys, it's a 50/50 game at worst.

How does UMD get to a No. 1 seed? It more than likely must beat North Dakota and definitely have Denver not beat Western Michigan. Again, even a tie in the third-place game will be fine for UMD, but the Bulldogs must win the NCHC title to have a chance at the No. 1 overall seed. There is at least one scenario where UMD is No. 1 overall with a loss Saturday night.

Where will UMD go? Great question. Friday night, before the B1G semifinals were finished up (Penn State beat Minnesota in double overtime, on a power play goal, on an extremely lame call, but I digress), I ran a bunch of scenarios and was able to get UMD into each of the four regionals.

Right now, I have no idea what will happen. Here's the big issue: attendance.

The selection committee has shown the willingness in past years to bend the bracket -- i.e. sending Providence as a No. 4 seed to the Providence regional two years ago, even though Providence by rule didn't have to go there -- to drive attendance and try to create a championship atmosphere.

So, for example, if the Friars get in, they're almost certainly heading to Providence. Depending on how the final field looks, it might take some work.

I believe the No. 1 overall seed -- whether it's Denver or UMD -- will go to Fargo. I know it sounds silly, since UND will be there and that team is rolling right now. But UND can't be a No. 4 seed, which would create the need for a non-NCHC team to go to Fargo (conference rivals can't meet in the opening round unless there are at least five teams from that league that get in, and the NCHC can't get more than four this year).

I believe the committee will send Western Michigan to Cincinnati, especially if it is a No. 1 seed. So, if this happens for example, I think UMD goes to Manchester. But, again, it depends on how the committee wants to try to drive attendance. UMD will not help attendance at any regional (sorry, Bulldog fans, but the only regional you guys will want to go to is sold out).

But Harvard, UMass-Lowell, Boston University, and Boston College can help in Manchester and maybe Providence. This becomes especially important if Providence doesn't get in.

So the easy answer: It's way too early to tell. Lots of options on the table right now.

But no matter what, UMD will be a No. 1 seed wherever it goes. And UMD vs North Dakota at Target Center should be fantastic. Can't wait.

Friday, March 17, 2017

Saturday Hockey Notes and Thoughts: UMD Rides Defensive Improvement, Opportunism to Second Straight NCHC Title Game

MINNEAPOLIS -- Not going to lie. UMD giving Western Michigan a five-on-three at the 2:24 mark of the first period seemed like a bad omen. Instead, it was a bit of a tone-setter.

The UMD penalty kill was spot-on Friday, and a stellar third period effort helped carry UMD to a 5-2 win over Western Michigan in the NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinals at Target Center. UMD will play North Dakota, a 1-0 winner over Denver, in Saturday's 7:30pm championship game.

Western had a goal disallowed in the second period, but ended up getting one that counted 1:09 later to tie the game 2-2. The Broncos earned that tying goal, as they had been able to bottle up UMD on a couple of occasions and generate scoring chances with numbers down low. UMD didn't do a great job covering guys, and Colt Conrad buried a rebound by Hunter Miska to draw the game even on one of those occasions.

But the Bulldogs tightened up after that, as did Miska. Alex Iafallo scored a beauty of a goal late in the second period that eventually gave UMD the lead for good. After Parker Mackay capitalized on a great play by Adam Johnson to make it 4-2 in the third, Miska held his ground against a hard-charging Broncos team, which got a four-on-three power play in the final three minutes of regulation and turned it into a five-on-three by pulling goalie Ben Blacker. Miska stopped Western goal-scoring specialist Matheson Iacopelli twice, including once on a really well set up one timer.

"It wasn't probably the prettiest game for either team," UMD coach Scott Sandelin said. "We stayed with it. Hard-fought game, which was what we expected.

"I think their second goal work our bench up for sure. Thought we played better towards the end of the period. Gotta get better in second periods. Didn't think our start was very good."

(Give Western credit, by the way. Andy Murray held three-year captain Sheldon Dries and stud freshman Wade Allison out with injuries. I'm not sure how badly Allison was injured crashing into the end boards in Game 3 against Omaha Sunday, but he was stretchered off and briefly hospitalized before returning to the arena. Either way, the Broncos were short-handed Friday and gave UMD everything it could handle for two periods and then some. This is a really good team that is fixing to do some damage in the NCAA Tournament, possibly as a one-seed if it can win the third-place game Saturday afternoon against Denver.)

Sandelin compared this game to the Saturday game in Kalamazoo on March 4. In that game, UMD kicked away a 2-0 second-period lead, only to get a goal from Johnson with 4.4 seconds left off a mad scramble in front of the WMU net. The momentum carried over into the third, and UMD ended up winning convincingly.

In this game, Iafallo got his goal with 3:49 left in the second, but there's no question there was some residual into the third period.

I thought UMD's defensive effort in the third was as good as we've seen in a while. Miska, yes, had to make some saves, but he was sharper and there weren't any glaringly blown coverages in front of him. The Broncos were coming after UMD, but couldn't get any super chances. The Mackay goal and a Jared Thomas length-of-the-ice empty netter iced the win for the Bulldogs.

The third period was what Sandelin has been looking for. A composed, defense-first effort. UMD didn't generate many chances, but capitalized on the Mackay goal, which was a thing of beauty by Johnson to set up. He waited out a sliding defender, walked back toward the front, bided his time, and sent a cross-crease pass to Mackay for a tap in after Blacker committed to Johnson. Brilliant play and a great goal.

"Didn't really have much," Johnson said of the play. "Just tried to wait, and Parker got to the net."

******

It's cliche, but coaches talk about a team's best players being its best players in crunch time.

Let there be no doubt that UMD's top line -- Dominic Toninato, Iafallo, and Joey Anderson -- were good again, and Johnson, centering the second line, was brilliant with three assists, including the dazzler to Mackay.

Again, the six-man defensive corps managed without Carson Soucy, who will not play this weekend (week to week, so we don't know what the plan is beyond this week). Jarod Hilderman's blocked shot set up Kyle Osterberg's goal late in the first, Hilderman's first point in these colors. Neal Pionk was a freaking beast, with an assist, three blocked shots, and a plus-three.

Iafallo has points in ten straight (6-10-16), goals in four straight. Toninato has goals in three straight and is 8-5-13 in the last 11 games. Johnson now is 6-7-13 in the last ten games. Mackay had his first two-point game since the season opener and now has six points in the last six games.

Osterberg's goal snapped a ten-game drought, but he now has four points in the last two games.

Production is coming from all over the place, and there couldn't be a better time than this for it to happen. UMD's last five games: 5, 5, 5, 6, and 4 goals. Not going to lose a lot this time of year when you average five goals per game.

******

UMD will face North Dakota for a fifth time this season in Saturday's championship game. The Bulldogs dominated the regular season series, going 4-0 with two shutouts and outscoring North Dakota 17-5.

I will guaran-damn-tee you Saturday won't be nearly as easy as an average score of 4.25-1.25 might suggest. UND is grinding teams down right now, impressively shutting down a potent Denver team Friday night at Target Center. Cam Johnson is playing well in goal, though Denver had a hard time really getting to him on Friday. Remember, as good as UND looked defensively in the semifinal, this game gave up five to St. Cloud State just this past Saturday. It is not an impenetrable defensive group. No one is, for that matter.

This will be a meat-grinder of a game, though. Mark my words. UMD will need to bring the proverbial lunch pails, because North Dakota is going to make the Bulldogs earn every inch of ice throughout the rink if Friday is any indication. The Fighting Hawks -- yes, it's still weird, sorry -- have won five straight games to put themselves back in the NCAA Tournament. Now they're coming for their first NCHC playoff title. And so are the Bulldogs. Someone's hoisting that thing for the first time Saturday, and I know who I want to see do it.

******

The dream of an All-NCHC Frozen Four may have died Friday night. North Dakota's win makes it difficult (I couldn't do it) to get UND to a No. 4 regional seed, which I figured was the only way to guarantee the possibility of the four NCHC teams in the tourney being assigned different regionals.

Maybe the committee ends up making that happen, but I don't see it as likely. I believe an NCHC team -- either UMD or Denver -- will join North Dakota in Fargo.

I'll likely jump back on Saturday morning and update PairWise scenarios, but I'm too tired right now to wrap my head around any of that.

We hit the air Saturday at 7pm on 92.1 The Fan. Join us for what should be a fun championship game. Looking forward to it.

Game 37: Western Michigan vs UMD (NCHC Frozen Faceoff Semifinal)

MINNEAPOLIS -- Greetings from Target Center and their giant new "Eat Your Heart Out, Craig Leipold" scoreboard.

Gotta be quick on this post, as technical terrorism reigns supreme. Need to get the in-house internet working.

Lines?

Lines.

UMD
UMD
Iafallo - Toninato - Anderson
Osterberg - Johnson - Mackay
Tufte - Peterson - Kuhlman
Young - Thomas - Exell

Pionk - Kotyk
Raskob - Hilderman
Wolff - Molenaar

Miska - Shepard - Deery

WMU
Courtnall - Rebry - Hadley
Molino - Tiffels - Iacopelli
McGing - Conrad - McMullen
McKee - Zehnal - Stoykewich

Goff - Bafia
Schueneman - Fleming
Lee - Moldenhauer

Olson - Blacker - Gorsuch

(You know the drill with the goalies. Also, Aidan Muir is listed as an extra skater for warmup. Twitter if he's in blah blah.)

Thursday, March 16, 2017

UMD Football, Men's Hockey Moving to Midwest Communications for 2017-18, Beyond

UMD has announced a three-year deal with Midwest Communications for radio rights to football and men's hockey. Press release is below. Very excited to get the word out on this, looking forward to what we'll be able to put together for the fall of 2017. 

This changes nothing for the remainder of men's hockey season, with all games on 92.1 The Fan and streamed here. More to come on plans for the new home, including the coaches' show format, player segments, and the possibility of other sports -- i.e. volleyball, women's hockey, basketball, etc. -- being on the air. We'll dive into all of that once the weather gets nice and stays that way. 😁
Midwest Communications and University of Minnesota Duluth Athletics have agreed on a three-year partnership for the radio rights to UMD men's hockey and football beginning with the 2017-18 season. Those sports will air on KDAL 610 AM and 103.9 FM as part of the Bulldog Radio Network. KDAL has a long and rich history with UMD Athletics, having been the radio home of Bulldog men's hockey for 49 seasons (1960-2009). 
"We're very excited that we were able to come to terms with UMD for a new multi-year sports agreement here at Midwest Communications. It will be great to have UMD returning to KDAL," said Midwest Communications director of sales Scott Christensen. "We've had a very good working relationship with the University and are delighted to be able to broadcast UMD Athletics action across the Northland."
Besides carrying all Bulldog men's hockey and football home and away games, Midwest Communications plans to air a number of UMD coaches shows and weekly segments with Bulldog student-athletes. Midwest Communications may also broadcast other UMD sports events at various times of the year.
"UMD Athletics is very pleased to enter a partnership with the Midwest family of radio stations to bring the Bulldog men's hockey and football broadcasts back to their long-time home," said UMD Athletic Director Josh Berlo. "In addition, we are excited about all of the ways Midwest Communications will be able to tell the great stories of our impressive 400-plus student-athletes from 16 teams achieving excellence in the classroom, competition and community through the broad reach of this strong partnership."

Bulldogs Guaranteed Two-Game Weekend for Final Time This Season, Facing Western Michigan at NCHC Frozen Faceoff

Last year, this weekend brought a lot of pressure for the UMD men's hockey team. The Bulldogs knew they had to win at least once at last year's NCHC Frozen Faceoff to be in good position for an NCAA bid.

This year, UMD could win the NCHC Frozen Faceoff and not help its place in the PairWise. The Bulldogs, as I wrote Wednesday, will finish first, second, or third in the final rankings, and will be a No. 1 regional seed next weekend.

(Officially rooting for three NCHC teams to finish in the top four, with North Dakota as a No. 4 regional seed, setting up the possibility of an all-NCHC Frozen Four that the NCAA committee can't stop from happening even if it wanted to.)

First things first, UMD gets another rematch against a recent opponent Friday at Target Center, with a semifinal game against Western Michigan. Fifth meeting of the season between these two top-five PWR teams, and the Broncos have to be seething a bit after UMD ruined Senior Night in Kalamazoo with a 6-3 win March 4.

It'll be the final weekend where teams are guaranteed two games. Starting with regionals next weekend, it's one and done until you either lose a game or hoist the big trophy in Chicago.

Broncos coach Andy Murray, who is in his second Frozen Faceoff but first since the league's inaugural year of 2013-14, knows what his group is up against. He said the preparation doesn't change at all when facing a very familiar opponent.

"We prepare for every league opponent the same way," Murray said this week. "It's all based on what we want to get done in a game, not necessarily adjusting to what the other team does."

The Broncos won eight games last year, including a 1-15-2 finish to the season. Murray has lauded his older players and all the returnees for helping change the culture in the room and improve the commitment level of everyone.

"This is a real special group of seniors we've got," he said. "The group of upperclassmen, first and foremost they're quality people, great students, and they do things right. They were not happy with what happened here last year. They had a taste of what it was like to be in the NCHC Frozen Faceoff their freshman year, and they're glad to be back."

"Last year was definitely a learning lesson," three-year captain Sheldon Dries said. "It was really the mentality of every guy on the team, coming here with a new attitude. Proving something not only to ourselves, but Western Michigan as a whole and the community of Kalamazoo."

On getting back to Minneapolis, Dries said it "means a lot, not just to the seniors but to the whole team."

In recent years, Western Michigan had a reputation of being a team that could clog up the middle of the ice and play strong in its own zone, but didn't have the offensive firepower to back that up.

Now, that's changed. Remarkably.

Not only can Western play strong in the defensive zone, but it's as good a transition team as any out there. Look at the Broncos against UMD in Kalamazoo, where they scored eight goals (five Friday, three Saturday) with a goalie in the net. Of the eight, six of them came off the rush, three in each game.

"In the last series we had, there were a lot of goals scored," UMD coach Scott Sandelin said. "They're a team that plays with a lot of pace. They present some challenges defensively for us. I think we've been a pretty good team (defensively) all year, just need to tighten up a few things. The Saturday game there I think we did a much better job. You don't want to get in a lot of 5-4 games, if it happens it happens, as long as you come out on top."

******

I wrote about Nick Wolff in my Monday blog, discussing his continually-improving play that culminated in his first collegiate goal in Saturday's win over Miami.

Sandelin: "I think him and Danny (Molenaar) have been a really good pair together. I think for him, he's grown through the year. He's gained confidence. He's a little more comfortable with the puck. I think he's had a pretty consistent year for a freshman. He's been one of our pleasant surprises from the start of the year until now. He brings an element that's nice. He brings an edge, he's physical, he competes hard every shift. But he has good hands, he's made a lot of little plays coming out of the zone that maybe go unnoticed, but we notice them."

Call me a jinx all you want, but I noted that he has not taken a major penalty this season. For a bigger, physical defenseman to come in as a freshman and avoid even getting slapped with a head contact major for a big hit that looks worse live than it probably is on replay says a lot about how smart he is and how he plays the game. Wolff has played 31 games. It's not an accident anymore. He knows what he's doing.

"The penalty he took (last weekend), I wouldn't change that," Sandelin said. "He's an imposing guy, he's hard to play against. There's guys in our league who've played against him in high school hockey and junior hockey and they know that. It's been fun to watch him grow through the year, a big part of our D-corps."

With Carson Soucy (lower body) ruled out for the weekend, Wolff, Molenaar, and company will again be asked to carry a bigger share of the workload. They've shown they're capable, and managing those minutes should be at least a little easier in games like this, where UMD is the designated home team and has choice of matchups.

Of course, UMD also possesses some matchup nightmares up front. Adam Johnson was really good in the series in Kalamazoo. After getting knocked around to the tune of a minus-12 aggregate, the line of Dominic Toninato, Alex Iafallo, and Joey Anderson were very sharp in the Saturday game out there. When the teams met in Duluth back in November, Sandelin didn't shy away from matching Toninato's line with Dries' line for the Broncos. Murray really didn't in Kalamazoo, either. I anticipate we'll see a lot of that on Friday as well. Strength vs strength. Whoever's strength plays better has the upper hand.

******

The winner of this semifinal game moves into Saturday's championship and will be facing a team on a winning streak. The question is how long will that winning streak be?

The second semifinal pits North Dakota -- winner of four in a row -- against top-ranked and top-seeded Denver, which enters on a 13-game winning streak. UND's 2016-17 season has some parallels to UMD's 2015-16 campaign, where a seven-game streak late got the Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament. UND needs a win to cement a bid in the tournament, and could actually get as high as seventh overall with a two-win weekend.

Denver is a top three overall team, no matter what, but the Pioneers are chasing a second NCHC playoff title as the NCAAs approach. Good luck dealing with this team, which has high-end skill up front, depth, and a top defenseman in Will Butcher (only NCHC player to make the Hobey Baker top ten finalists) who can play big minutes.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

PairWise Implications Abound for NCHC Frozen Faceoff

After last year's PairWise drama, it's kind of nice to see UMD sitting in the position it's in.

For probably around a month -- maybe longer -- the Bulldogs have been able to lose all remaining games and still comfortably get in the NCAA Tournament. Even last week, UMD would have remained on the No. 1 seed line (the top four PairWise teams get No. 1 regional seeds) even if swept by Miami in the first round of the NCHC playoffs.

As we get ready for the NCHC Frozen Faceoff, which starts Friday at Target Center in Minneapolis, the Bulldogs appear locked into a top three overall spot in the tournament when selections are announced Sunday (11am, ESPNU). The College Hockey News Probability Matrix and Jim Dahl both believe this to be true, and I'm not smart enough to do anything but parrot what the numbers say, so we'll go with it.

It shouldn't change how UMD plays this weekend, but how can it not be different than it was last year, when everyone knew UMD needed to win one and possibly two games to get in the NCAA Tournament?

(UMD ended up beating No. 1 North Dakota 4-2 in the semifinals before falling 3-1 to St. Cloud State in the championship. Had Minnesota beaten Michigan in the Big Ten title game, the Bulldogs would have missed the NCAA Tournament.)

To a man, players and staff have admitted this. Head coach Scott Sandelin talked a couple weeks ago about the "desperation" his team had no choice but to play with down the stretch last season, and it worked to the tune of a seven-game winning streak that ultimately made the difference between an NCAA trip and early tee times.

So with Denver and UMD locked into the top three overall, what is on the line this weekend?

Western Michigan is in the tournament. The Broncos are likely to finish fourth (39 percent per CHN), fifth (30), or sixth (22). If WMU ends up fourth, look for it to head to Cincinnati as the top seed in the Midwest Regional. That probably punches UMD's plane tickets out east, as Denver is 90 percent (again, per CHN) to finish No. 1 and most of us are under the assumption they'd go to Fargo in that scenario.

Unless ...

What if North Dakota ends up 13th or 14th? CHN lists it as a 27 percent possibility (13 percent 13th, 14 percent 14th). If that happens and WMU takes the fourth No. 1 seed, it'll send Harvard to Fargo, the Broncos to the land of Skyline Chili, and both UMD and Denver would have to go east.]

A straight-chalk (every high seed wins) bracket would get UND in as a 13th seed, however it bumps Western out of the top four. However, if Minnesota doesn't get the Big Ten autobid and Boston College gets hot in the Hockey East tourney, it could lead us to this final PairWise, which would introduce Harvard to lovely Fargo and a world where no one is picking the Crimson -- who would have a 14-game winning streak if this plays out -- to win their first-round game.

North Dakota is not in the tournament, but fans can breathe at least a little. Even if UND loses both games this weekend, Dahl has it at 89 percent for the Fighting Hawks to get in. If UND wins a game, either day, it is in. Two wins can get North Dakota as high as seventh overall (3 percent), a two-seed in its regional in Fargo.

If UND doesn't win a game, fans need to root for the likes of Boston College, Wisconsin, and Ohio State to not get hot. High seeds winning in other leagues would be good for North Dakota's chances if it can't give itself enough help.

Per CHN, there are nine teams still alive for the NCAAs that can only get in via their respective league's automatic bid. Those are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State (B1G), Canisius, Army, and Robert Morris (Atlantic Hockey), both combatants in the WCHA title game (Michigan Tech and Bowling Green), and Quinnipiac (ECAC). Everyone else playing this weekend is either a lock for the tournament or is like North Dakota -- not 100 percent in but capable of getting in either via an automatic or at-large bid.

I'll update scenarios on the blog Saturday for sure, maybe Friday if the Big Ten first round Thursday changes anything significantly (Penn State losing to Michigan, for example, could make things very interesting). Will also be back with a NCHC semifinal preview, probably Thursday night, and obviously plenty of content from Target Center.

Monday, March 13, 2017

Monday Musings: UMD Rallies Late, Sweeps Miami, Advances to NCHC Frozen Faceoff

UMD started strong in Saturday's Game 2 against Miami, and appeared poised to blow the RedHawks out of the building in the first period. Shots were 10-0 about halfway through the first, 16-4 for the period, but UMD only led 1-0 on an early Brenden Kotyk goal.

We've seen this script play out a few times through the season. UMD couldn't find another goal, and Miami was very much in the game heading into the second period.

Freshman Nick Wolff's first collegiate goal gave UMD a 2-0 lead in the second, but the inability to find another goal during the first-period surge came back to haunt the home team. Miami got a power play goal to cut the lead in half. Then early in the third, the RedHawks scored goals 1:52 apart for a 3-2 lead that seemed to stun those in attendance.

But like it has all season, the Bulldogs found a way back. Jared Thomas scored for the second time in three games, a sharp-angle shot that seemed to trickle in off the pad of Miami goalie Chase Munroe to tie the game 3-3 with 6:35 to play. Barely two minutes later, Alex Iafallo put a world-class inside-out move on Miami defenseman Grant Hutton before wiring a wrist shot by Munroe for the eventual game-winning goal. Captain Dominic Toninato added a late empty-netter to seal the deal in a 5-3 win that sends UMD back to Target Center for the NCHC Frozen Faceoff.

(Iafallo, by the way, takes his second nine-game point streak of the season into the NCHC Frozen Faceoff this coming weekend. He's over 40 points on the season now, and when UMD needed them most, both he and Toninato were stellar this past weekend. If that continues, this team will be very hard for anyone to handle.)

You don't get to 23-6-7 and the second spot in the national rankings (PairWise at least) without figuring a way around a few bumps along the way. Nothing is smooth, not even for what almost appears to be a juggernaut in Denver. UMD has overcome slow starts, big deficits, and now an injury to top defenseman Carson Soucy to keep winning.

Soucy, by the way, got cornered by Matt Wellens during Saturday's game.



Good news, for sure. UMD used Adam Johnson on defense Friday, and even though Scott Sandelin wouldn't rule out that look in the future, he was playing forward by the third period and played it the whole game Saturday. His line with Kyle Osterberg and Parker Mackay combined for three assists and a plus-five in the game. Jarod Hilderman played on defense, but appeared to be a bit limited in terms of minutes and situations.

Basically playing five defensemen and spotting Hilderman is something UMD can manage at this point, maybe on a game-by-game basis depending on the opponent. I thought Hilderman was quite good in the Saturday game at Western Michigan, so maybe he plays in Friday's semifinal against the Broncos and we'll see what happens on Saturday? Early speculation, as we have the whole week to look at that.

******

Perhaps one of the reasons for Johnson being shifted back up front: The play of Wolff. As I said on the air Saturday, one of the joys of seeing every game UMD plays is you can see the young guys make incremental progress each weekend.

And Wolff is absolutely progressing. He's earning more ice time, which makes it tough to justify trying to assimilate Johnson to what's a new position for him at this level.

If you hadn't watched much of UMD in February, you might have missed the jump Wolff has taken in terms of his level of play. He scored his first goal on Saturday as part of a three-point night, but Wolff was also active with team-high six shots on goal and had a plus-four rating. For a guy who's been pretty steadily improving in the defensive zone, Saturday's game was an offensive breakout.

Wolff has shown his physical side more than a few times this season, and for a freshman, he's done a really good job making big hits without taking penalties for being too aggressive. That he hasn't taken a major this season -- while being unafraid to play a physical game -- is saying something, especially when you consider current UMD defensemen Soucy, Willie Raskob, and Neal Pionk all took at least one major penalty as a freshman.

Speaking of Raskob and Pionk, Wolff's emergence also takes more pressure off them, and it indirectly takes some heat off Soucy, who doesn't have to feel the need to rush back in the lineup before he's ready to do so.

******

Western Michigan is next up for the Bulldogs, Friday at 4pm in the NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinals. The Broncos needed overtime of a third game to take down Omaha 2-1 on a Michael Rebry game-winning goal.

(The NCHC has set a precedent of letting the top seed express its preference for which semifinal it plays in, and commissioner Josh Fenton said Monday Denver wanted to play in the late game. There's certainly something to be said for keeping the players' routines, and most DU Friday games started at 7:30pm local time. But there's a benefit to being in the early game, because wonky game times are fairly commonplace in the NCAAs, and it's a chance to get the body clocks tuned for the odd 4pm game start that isn't so odd in the national tournament.)

Freshman Ben Blacker was outstanding all weekend for Western, allowing just five goals on 98 shots, including one on 37 in Sunday's series-deciding game.

The teams split four games in the regular season, with Western Michigan winning the Friday games (4-3 in Duluth, then 7-4 in Kalamazoo) before the Bulldogs rallied to take Saturday affairs (2-0 and 6-3).

UMD struggled against Western Michigan's top players, most notably Colt Conrad, Sheldon Dries, and Griffen Molino, and especially in Kalamazoo. This time around, UMD will be the designated home team and able to exercise some control over matchups. Barring injuries or a Soucy return, I would anticipate the same lineup Friday against Western as we saw Saturday against Miami.

In terms of PairWise, UMD remains second, and if you use the predictor tool of your choice for the upcoming weekend, you'll probably find any final seeding between 1-3 is realistic. Lots of different ways to get UMD to any of those spots, not really any ways to get UMD to any spot below the third overall seed.

******

A final note of thanks and congratulations to the UMD women's hockey team on a great season. It came to end Saturday with a 1-0 loss to Minnesota in the NCAA quarterfinals. For five seniors -- forwards Ashleigh Brykaliuk, Demi Crossman, Katie McGovern, and Lara Stalder, along with defenseman Sidney Morin -- and junior Maria Lindh (graduating), it was the final game in a UMD jersey.

They laid everything on the line and have nothing to hang their heads about from a superb effort that fell just a goal short.

Brykaliuk and Stalder, per assistant coach Laura Bellamy, deserve kudos as well for facing the media after the game. NCAA-mandated press conferences are a killer to watch when the losing team participates after having their heart ripped out, no matter the sport. Bellamy noted that Brykaliuk and Stalder were given the option to skip out and let other players take the questions of assembled media. Instead, they composed themselves as best they could and did what great leaders do.

Coaches talk all the time about culture. When you have a new staff take over, it's about building a culture the way they want to build it. A big reason Maura Crowell's second season ended in the NCAA Tournament is the culture created in the room, starting with the graduating class. Brykaliuk and Morin were great captains, and all the seniors were fantastic leaders. Thanks to the work they've done, UMD is quickly on the verge of a changed culture, one that expects greatness. For the young players, it was their first taste of big-time, high-level hockey. They'll come back in the fall craving more, and that's exactly what Crowell and her staff want. It's what's worked for so many great programs -- men's and women's, all sports -- over the years.

It's also how Minnesota has remained as good as it's been for so long. Lee Stecklein didn't arrive at Minnesota with national championship rings. She learned how to win from players who won, and now she's passing those lessons down as she wraps up her Minnesota career seeking an unprecedented fourth national title. Someday, that will be how it works at UMD, and it started -- at least in this go-round -- with players like Brykaliuk, Morin, and Stalder. We salute them on their way out, and wish them nothing but the best going forward.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Game 36: Miami at UMD (NCHC Playoffs Game 2)

First, a quick salute to the UMD women, who fell 1-0 to Minnesota in the NCAA quarterfinals. Absolute pleasure to work with this group of players and coaches, and I hope the departing seniors leave with their heads held high. Unquestionably, this program is in better shape than when you arrived on campus, and all of us who support Bulldog athletics are in your debt for your role in that.

Now, on to matters at hand, as the UMD men try to get back to Target Center and the NCHC Frozen Faceoff. It took overtime on Friday, but Dominic Toninato's first career overtime winner gave UMD a 1-0 lead in the best-of-three series.

No Ryan Larkin in this game. The Miami freshman goalie was injured after UMD's Jared Thomas was checked into him in the second period. Chase Munroe, who played his junior hockey for the Minnesota Wilderness of the NAHL, will start in his place. Friday was Munroe's first game action since Dec. 10, and this game will be his first start since that date.

UMD will move Adam Johnson back to forward, and freshman Jarod Hilderman plays on defense. Sammy Spurrell is scratched. Not sure I'd label it a failed experiment, but UMD definitely was a better defensive team with the six that played last Saturday against Western Michigan than it was with the six that played Friday night. Let's see how it goes in this game before jumping to conclusions about the lineup going forward.

Lines?

Lines.

UMD
Iafallo - Toninato - Anderson
Osterberg - Johnson - Mackay
Tufte - Peterson - Kuhlman
Young - Thomas - Exell

Pionk - Kotyk
Raskob - Hilderman
Wolff - Molenaar

Miska - Shepard - Deery

Miami
Lemirande - Johnson - Knierim
Bachman - Greenberg - Siroky
LaValle - Sherwood - Green
Louis - Melnick - Meyer

Switzer - Hutton
Dornbrock - Sullivan
Brandt - Frederic

Munroe - Masters

Women's Hockey: Minnesota at UMD (NCAA Quarterfinal)

Should be a good one, as these longtime rivals meet for the second time in the NCAA Tournament. It's UMD first tourney appearance since 2011, first time hosting since 2010.

For UMD, the only injury concern coming in was junior defenseman Catherine Daoust. She's good to go after leaving last Saturday's WCHA semifinal against Minnesota and missing the championship game against Wisconsin.

Winner off to the Women's Frozen Four. Here we go.

Lines?

Lines.

UMD
Stalder - McGovern - Brykaliuk
Brodt - Mrazova - Lindh
Lowenhielm - Crossman - Astrup
Schugel - Morse - Yanko

Elmes - Morin
Healey - Daoust
Hedin - Brossart

Rooney - Johnson

UMN
Potomak - Pannek - Cameranesi
Reilly - Piazza - Schipper
Schammel - Agnew - Skarzynski
Williamson - Haley - Keller

Stecklein - Wolfe
Baldwin - Marshall
Cline - Robinson

Peters - May - D'Angelo