CONFERENCE USA
WEST DIVISION
1. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
What a difference a coach can make. The Tulsa program was floundering badly in 2002, coming off a 1-10 season, when they replaced Keith Burns with former Buffalo Bills assistant Steve Kragthorpe. Kragthorpe immediately started to turn around the losing attitude that had permeated in Tulsa through Burns’ short tenure. The results? Immediate. Tulsa went bowling in 2003 for the first time in more than a decade, and after a down year in 2004 (the defense faltered a bit and the team posted a -12 turnover ratio), they were back in the bowl picture in 2005, pulling an upset of Fresno State in the Liberty Bowl.
With 16 starters back, the Golden Hurricane look poised for a run at the conference title, provided that they can make more improvement on defense and continue to take outstanding care of the football (only 15 giveaways last year).
In good shape: Quarterback. Paul Smith, in just his first year as a starter, was able to outshine both UTEP’s Jordan Palmer and Houston’s Kevin Kolb. Smith hit over 62 percent of his passes for 2,847 yards and 20 scores to just six picks. Even with his leading receivers, Garrett Mills and Ashlan Davis, both gone, Smith is only going to get better in this offense. Only one of his six interceptions came in Tulsa’s final six games, and he was nearly letter-perfect in wins over UCF in the CUSA title game and Fresno in the bowl, combining to go 31 of 47 for 439 yards and three scores. A big part of Smith’s success this year will be the play of his receivers.
Needs work: Wide receiver/tight end. Tulsa uses their tight ends perhaps more than anyone else these days, and they lost a good one in Mills, who caught 87 passes last year and scored nine times. JUCO Devin Adair was set to take over for Mills, but he died after a short illness in the spring, leaving the program in a state of shock. Sophomore Ted Curtis is probably the best candidate for Mills’ hybrid tight end/H-back role. Davis’ departure isn’t as painful, because Tulsa returns three senior receivers. Ryan Bugg, Idris Moss, and Donnie Johnson will all have a chance to showcase their skills this fall, along with youngsters Jesse Meyer and Kyle Grooms. Smith is a very capable passer, but someone in this group needs to become a reliable target, or the offense will suffer.
Overview: Tulsa is in great shape this year. Nine starters are back on defense, including a top-notch linebacking group of Nick Bunting, Nelson Coleman, and Chris Chamberlain. The three combined for 290 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, and 13.5 quarterback sacks. With the linebackers behind them, the defensive line should really improve this year, both from a run-stopping and pass-rushing standpoint. The secondary could be Tulsa’s best in years, thanks to senior corners Nick Graham and Julian McGowan. With a relatively manageable non-conference schedule, combined with home dates against their toughest CUSA foes (except Houston), this sets up to be a potential ten-win season for the Golden Hurricane.
2. UTEP Miners
Don’t get me wrong. Mike Price has done great work at UTEP. He quickly turned around a program that was heading in the wrong direction, and the Miners have posted back-to-back 8-4 seasons, which is really nothing to sneeze at.
But it pales in comparison to what might have been. UTEP started 8-2 in 2004 before a loss to Tulsa and then to Colorado kept them from a ten-win campaign. The Miners started 8-1 last year and appeared poised to host the inaugural CUSA title game before two straight losses sent Tulsa through as the West Division winner. In the loss to SMU that closed out their regular season, the Miners committed a ghastly seven turnovers and gave up 440 total yards.
Amazingly, Phil Steele points out that UTEP is now winless in 17 regular season finales since 1988. Yikes!
With that in mind, expectations will be high this year, and a senior-laden team will be expected to deliver from start to finish.
In good shape: Offense. I couldn’t pick out one facet of their game, so I’m picking the whole thing. QB Jordan Palmer was mistake-prone last year, throwing 19 picks, including nine in the last three games, but he was very good for most of the season, as the 3,500 passing yards would indicate. He should have his best year as a senior. Marcus Thomas emerged as a top running back, thanks to four straight 100-yard games to close out the regular season, including a 117-yard, two-touchdown gem in the win over Tulsa. At receiver, UTEP is very strong and also experienced, led by seniors Johnnie Lee Higgins and Chris Marrow. Juniors Joe West and Lorne Sam will also see action. The offensive line has also been successfully revamped by Price. Three starters return, and the two new guys include junior tackle Oniel Cousins, who weighs 300 pounds and runs a 4.8. Yes, you read that correctly. No, it’s not a misprint.
Needs work: Secondary. The Miners are still woefully undersized at cornerback, where they expect to start Nate Draughon (5-10) and Josh Ferguson (5-7) this year. Primary backups Tim McCullough and Fred Patton are 5-11 and 5-9 respectively, so big receivers could see plenty of success against this group. The pass defense allowed 213 yards per game last year and picked off just 14 passes, so they have to get better in the secondary. The rest of the defense looks pretty good on paper.
Overview: The Miners have seniors all over the place. The projected starting lineup includes 15 of them, including the entire defensive front seven (of that group, big things are expected out of DT Zach West and LB Troy Collavo). Price did the right thing this spring. Seeing that his group was having trouble finishing big games at the end of the season, he pulled back a bit and went back to basics. The results won’t be known until November, when UTEP closes out with home games against Rice and Memphis, along with road trips to UAB and Marshall. The talent is certainly there on both sides of the ball. If the team can take care of business early, they’ll be favored in each of these games and could roll into the CUSA title game. However, the big games are back-to-back, and both are on the road (Houston and Tulsa). It’s hard to figure that UTEP will be able to win both, especially with a short week of preparation in between (the Houston game is a Saturday, with Tulsa the following Friday). UTEP is in position to win as many as ten games if things go their way, and a conference title can’t be ruled out because of the wealth of experience this team has returning.
3. Houston Cougars
Things started to turn around for Houston when Art Briles came aboard before the 2003 season. He brought with him an offense that no one has really been able to accurately describe. It’s part spread, part option, truly a multiple offense. And it’s driven defenses crazy. The Cougars went from 27 points per game before Briles arrived to 34 in his first year.
Briles has taken Houston to two bowl games in three years, and he has the offense rolling into 2006, thanks to senior QB Kevin Kolb, who enters his fourth year as a starter. Hopes are high in Houston, as UH tries to build off their Fort Worth Bowl trip and contend for a Conference USA title.
In good shape: Quarterback. Yes, Kolb’s interceptions went from 6 in both his freshman and sophomore years to 15 last year. But he’s still the ignitor of this offense, as he’s been since he arrived on campus. Kolb can run, though he hasn’t done it as much the last couple years, and he is an accurate passer who typically makes good decisions. Kolb already owns the school total offense record, surpassing David Klingler’s mark of 9,327, and he should only add to that in his senior season.
Needs work: Defensive front seven. Rush yards per game allowed in each of Briles’ three seasons as head coach: 209, 192, 177. It’s improved each year, but not enough. The Cougars have to be stronger up front. Last year, they allowed opposing running backs to gain 4.6 yards per carry, and they only produced 17 sacks in their 12 games. UH switched to a 3-4 defense last year, and the growing pains were evident. Sophomore end Cody Pree is back off a freshman all-CUSA season, and senior nose tackle Marquay Love is back to anchor the middle of the run defense. Inside ‘backers Cody Lubojasky and Trent Allen both enter 2006 with the belief that they’ll be much better, and both starting outside linebackers, Wade Koehl and Brendan Pahulu, are back. The improvement should be there, and it will have to be if Houston hopes to contend for a league title.
Overview: The Cougars are a tough team to figure out. The offense should continue to be strong, but they have to take better care of the ball (28 giveaways last year). Kolb has top receivers Vincent Marshall and Donnie Avery back, and the running game should be strong with Jackie Battle serving as the anchor. The schedule is not daunting early, with winnable games at home against Tulane, Grambling, and Oklahoma State, along with a game at Rice, all before a game at Miami. Houston is good enough to win eight or nine games, and the Cougars should challenge Tulsa and UTEP for the conference title.
4. SMU Mustangs
The Mustangs’ program hasn’t been the same since the death penalty came around in 1987 and 1988. After a relatively successful 6-5 season in 1997, the program really went south. They’ve gone 27-57 since then, including 0-12 in 2003.
But Phil Bennett has things pointing in the right direction. The Mustangs won five games in 2005, and while a bowl berth might be out of reach this season, Bennett should have as strong a team as he’s had since arriving in Dallas. The defense is getting better, and the overall level of talent and depth is higher at SMU than it’s been in years.
In good shape:Running back. The Mustangs have a real gem in sophomore DeMyron Martin. Martin was the Conference USA Player of the Week in SMU’s upset win over TCU last year, and he took off from there. He had four 100-yard games on the season, and just missed out on the 1,000-yard mark. He ran for 117 yards in the late-season upset of UTEP. Richuel Massey returns as the primary backup, but Martin is in the spotlight this year. With inexperience at quarterback, they’ll need him to be more consistent and to stay durable for the entire season.
Needs work: Quarterback. This position has been a huge problem for SMU since long before Bennett arrived. Last year, Jerad Romo stabilized things just a bit, throwing for nearly 1,800 yards and nine scores, including a 300-yard game against UAB. Unfortunately for SMU, Romo has moved on, leaving a gaping hole at the position. At this point, it appears that redshirt freshman Justin Willis, an athletic dual-threat quarterback, will take over as the starter. Willis has promise, and luckily for him, he has some experienced receivers to throw to. Third-team All-Conference USA receiver Bobby Chase is back, as is senior Reynaldo Pellerin, who had 30 receptions last year. Seniors Blake Warren and Jay’Mond Cleveland will also see plenty of playing time.
Overview: The Mustangs are in a good spot if they can develop a quarterback. The offensive line should improve (only 3.5 yards per carry last year while allowing 30 sacks, so the line was a bit inconsistent), the running game is strong, and the wide receivers are as good as they’ve been in years at SMU. On defense, six starters return, including senior tackles Brandon Bonds and Adrian Haywood, along with senior safety Joe Sturdivant. The depth on defense is improving, but the Mustangs will still rely on their upperclass starters to stay healthy and play well. The schedule starts with a game at Texas Tech, which will test the athleticism and depth of the defense right out of the chute. The other three non-conference games should be wins for SMU, and if the Mustangs can develop Willis (or someone else) at quarterback, they have an outside shot at seven or eight wins. The real breakthrough, however, might not come until next season.
5. Tulane Green Wave
How do you not root for Tulane to pull it all together and do well this season? The Green Wave went through a hellish season in 2005. The team’s home stadium, the Louisiana Superdome, was heavily damaged in Hurricane Katrina, and the university also had severe damage to many buildings, including the old on-campus football stadium. The team evacuated to Jackson, Mississippi, and eventually to Dallas, before settling in Rustin, Louisiana, the home of Louisiana Tech.
The players spent much of their time early in the season dealing with the loss of personal belongings in buildings that were damaged by the storm, and some had to struggle through while trying to get in contact with missing family members.
On the field, the Wave, playing 11 games in 11 different stadiums, never really got going. They started 2-1, including a convincing win against SMU, but didn’t taste victory again, allowing 37 points per game while losing their last eight.
This year won’t be much easier. Facility issues pushed back spring practice, and the players are still trying to improve their strength and conditioning after a year where football was a complete afterthought for many of them.
In good shape: Quarterback. Lester Ricard may never dazzle Tulane fans like Shaun King and Patrick Ramsey did, but he still has a chance to go out on a high note. The tall senior (6-5) suffered through a tough year like the rest of his teammates did in 2005. His interceptions were up from his sophomore year, despite only starting eight games, and his completion percentage was down (barely above 50). But Ricard is better than that, and we all know it. The personnel around him is good, and Ricard will benefit from a much more stable environment this season.
Needs work: Defensive front seven. The Green Wave struggled up front last year, netting just 20 sacks and allowing the opposition to run roughshod to the tune of nearly 200 yards per game and over 4.5 yards per carry. The secondary actually looks pretty decent, but much of the overall success of the defense will be on the front seven. The line has some veteran players who should be able to help. Junior end Antonio Harris is back after leading the defensive line in tackles last year. He’s joined by junior tackles Alvin Johnson and Avery Williams, along with senior ends Michael Purcell and Billy Harrison. The linebackers are very young, and their progress is key to the improvement of this defense. Sophomores James Dillard and Jordan Ellis will be joined in the starting lineup by either freshman Adam Kwentua or junior Terrence Peterson, who is the most experienced player in the group in terms of seniority.
Overview: Ricard has all the key pieces in place around him and he should improve. The running game should improve, with junior Matt Forte back. Like Ricard, Forte experienced a drop in performance last year, but it can be excused because of all the issues this program faced. Offensive guard Donald Madlock missed all of last year because of a shoulder injury, and his return strengthens the interior of Tulane’s line. Because of the completion of repairs to the Superdome, Tulane doesn’t open there until September 30 against SMU, and the three road games to start off are all tough matchups (Houston, Mississippi State, and LSU). Tulane plays only five home games, and two of them are against East Division favorites Southern Mississippi and Central Florida in back-to-back weeks. Even given the added stability this year, it’s hard to imagine Tulane winning more than three or four games, no matter how badly I’d like to see it happen.
6. Rice Owls
Patience.
Rice fans (there are Rice fans?) and the school administration need patience. Lots of it, actually. The program is in shambles after the firing of Ken Hatfield, who was replaced by recruiting whiz Todd Graham. Hatfield had the option offense in place here for years, with limited success in terms of wins and losses, but plenty of success running the ball. Where Rice failed over the last few years was on defense. The Owls haven’t given up less than 30 points per game since 2002, and they gave up 40 a game in 2005.
Not only does Graham have to try to rebuild morale, but he also has to rebuild the defense while also changing to the spread offense, which will be coordinated by former Texas quarterback Major Applewhite.
In good shape: Wide receiver. Not only does Graham have a large number of players available here (Blue Ribbon estimates that anywhere from 10 to 12 different guys may be used at receiver), but there are some pretty good athletes. Sophomore Jarett Dillard caught 35 passes last year. To put that in perspective, Rice completed 89 passes all season, so Dillard was quite productive. He should be even better in a passing offense. Former option quarterback Joel Armstrong, former running back Tommy Henderson, and redshirt freshmen Marcus Knox and Chris Douglas should all get chances to produce. Graham also has true freshmen Toren Dixon and Andrew Novak, both of whom could see significant time this year.
Needs work: Quarterback. I already mentioned the defense, which gave up over 40 points per game last year. And it’s pretty clear that the defense needs work. However, Graham is probably going to be forced to start a true freshman at quarterback, which is a dangerous proposition, even in a “mid-major” league like Conference USA. The Owls moved Armstrong to receiver, leaving last year’s backup, Chase Clement, who is a better fit for the spread than Armstrong, but he’s not a very accurate passer. He’ll probably have to hold off true freshman Pierre Beasley in fall practice. Either way, there is a lot of work to do to change the offensive culture at Rice, and Graham knows the road won’t be easy.
Overview: The offensive line has some talent, but also has to deal with the changeover to the spread, and the new blocking schemes could cause some isues early in the season. Defensively, there is certainly some talent on hand, but the depth is horrendous, especially at linebacker. Graham moved running back Marcus Rucker here, and he hopes for big things. Senior Omeke Alikor will be the leader of the defense from his middle linebacker spot. Graham has 17 starters back, but the schematic changes probably will set this program back a year or two. Rice has paycheck games with UCLA, Florida State, and Texas (the Texas game is technically a home game, though it’s being played at Reliant Stadium in Houston), and they’ll probably be lucky to win three games.
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
Randomization: 08/09/06
OK...my turn...this rule is stupid. When I did the Commish for a Day series about a month or so ago, one of the points I made very clear was that I felt college football games were running too long. The common misconception here is that this is a media-driven problem. That's simply not the case. There are actually fewer full television/media timeouts in a college football game than there are in an NFL game. Yet, college football games typically run somewhere around 3:45, while the average NFL game is around three hours.
I intimated that I was in favor of some changes in how the clock was run, and I still am. I'm fully aware that this could cut anywhere from 10-15 plays out of the average college football game, but I'm okay with that. Frankly, games that run close to four hours are just too long, especially when there's a way to speed them up a little bit.
But the idea the Rules Committee has moved forward is bad. Instead of having the clock run on first down plays and sideline plays, like it does in the NFL, check out what they're going to do in college football:
I don't mind the second change as much, because it's probably not a big deal. The ball being marked ready for play will also start the play clock, so it's not going to do anything to cause a rush from the team that's on offense. They should already be moving to get the right personnel on the field and get the play called.
(The second change is something that you see, I believe, in all states at the high school level. So it's not completely foreign to football.)
I really don't like the first change. It's not going to do a lot of good in terms of saving time, and it doesn't make nearly as much sense as other possible changes would have made.
Apparently, Maurice Clarett has given up on the NFL thing. If he hasn't, then he's doing a good job of fooling us into thinking he has. Clarett, a former star running back and academic standout at The Ohio State University, was picked up early this morning in Columbus after a highway chase that ended with Clarett getting Maced. Why Mace?
(Insert obligatory "Why hasn't he signed with the Bengals yet?" joke here.)
Oh, yeah. There's this.
Maybe you're trying to mimic Furious George. If so, by the way, you have a long way to go.
Clarett may have even hurt his chances of being signed by Phil Fulmer himself, and his NFL dream is most certainly dead. If I had predicted this five years ago, when Clarett was among the hottest names entering college football, who would have believed me?
I intimated that I was in favor of some changes in how the clock was run, and I still am. I'm fully aware that this could cut anywhere from 10-15 plays out of the average college football game, but I'm okay with that. Frankly, games that run close to four hours are just too long, especially when there's a way to speed them up a little bit.
But the idea the Rules Committee has moved forward is bad. Instead of having the clock run on first down plays and sideline plays, like it does in the NFL, check out what they're going to do in college football:
The first change means the clock starts on a kickoff when the ball is kicked, not when the receiving team touches it. The other change means the clock starts on a change of possession when the ball is marked ready for play, not when it is snapped.In other words, five or so seconds will run off the clock while a kick is in the air, meaning that the game can end without the receiving team even touching the ball if the kicking team boots it out of bounds on purpose late in a game.
I don't mind the second change as much, because it's probably not a big deal. The ball being marked ready for play will also start the play clock, so it's not going to do anything to cause a rush from the team that's on offense. They should already be moving to get the right personnel on the field and get the play called.
(The second change is something that you see, I believe, in all states at the high school level. So it's not completely foreign to football.)
I really don't like the first change. It's not going to do a lot of good in terms of saving time, and it doesn't make nearly as much sense as other possible changes would have made.
Apparently, Maurice Clarett has given up on the NFL thing. If he hasn't, then he's doing a good job of fooling us into thinking he has. Clarett, a former star running back and academic standout at The Ohio State University, was picked up early this morning in Columbus after a highway chase that ended with Clarett getting Maced. Why Mace?
Officers used Mace to subdue Clarett after a stun gun was ineffective because the former Fiesta Bowl star was wearing a bullet-resistant vest, Sgt. Michael Woods said.Good thing for San Jose State that Clarett is no longer enrolled at tOSU, because this might end up being the Fulmer Cup clincher for the Buckeyes.
(Insert obligatory "Why hasn't he signed with the Bengals yet?" joke here.)
Oh, yeah. There's this.
Clarett was taken to police headquarters to be interviewed. Police planned to charge him with carrying concealed weapons and other counts, Woods said.And this:
Clarett made an illegal U-turn on the city's east side and failed to stop when officers, in a cruiser with lights flashing, tried to pull him over, Woods said.
Police were pursuing Clarett on eastbound Interstate 70 when he darted across the median and began heading west. Clarett drove over a spike strip that was placed on the highway, flattening the driver's side tires of the SUV, Woods said.
Clarett exited the highway and pulled into a restaurant parking lot, where officers removed him from the SUV after he failed to obey numerous orders to exit the vehicle, Woods said.
After Clarett was placed in a police van, officers discovered a loaded rifle and three loaded handguns in the front of the vehicle, Woods said.Going for extra credit, Mo?
Maybe you're trying to mimic Furious George. If so, by the way, you have a long way to go.
Clarett may have even hurt his chances of being signed by Phil Fulmer himself, and his NFL dream is most certainly dead. If I had predicted this five years ago, when Clarett was among the hottest names entering college football, who would have believed me?
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
College football preview: Conference USA East
CONFERENCE USA
EAST DIVISION
1. Central Florida Golden Knights
2004:
0-11 record, outscored by an average of 33-16, outgained by an average of 403-280.
With that in mind, could anyone have predicted that UCF would end up in the Conference USA title game in their inaugural season of CUSA play?
What George O’Leary did here is simply incredible. He took over UCF after a disastrous 2003 season and spent the entire 2004 season cleaning house and restoring an attitude and desire in the players that was lacking. Almost everyone returned last year, and once they beat Marshall in their home opener, everything started to click.
This year’s team could be even better. 17 starters return, and after a disappointing close to the season that saw UCF lose the CUSA title game at home and then lose a heartbreaker in the bowl game, there should be no lack of motivation.
In good shape: Offensive backfield. Senior QB Steven Moffett was one of the players who ran afoul of O’Leary’s ways in 2004. O’Leary, as Phil Steele chronicled, wanted a take-charge guy in the huddle, and Moffett was pretty laid-back. He emerged, however, as one of the best in the league last year, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and 22 scores. He needs to improve his completion percentage and do a better job finding open receivers instead of deciding to take off and run. After all, why take off and run yourself when you have Kevin Smith and Jason Peters available to do it for you? Smith got close to 1,200 yards last year as a freshman, while the senior Peters went for nearly 600 as the fullback. Senior Dontavius Wilcox is a very capable backup to Smith.
Needs work: Defensive front seven. It’s not a question of returning talent here. Instead, the problem is that the players starting at linebacker were simply not that good in 2006. UCF’s top three tacklers last year were defensive backs. Those DBs, corners Johnell Neal and Joe Burnett, along with safety Jason Venson, all got significant playing time as freshmen and played pretty well, but they spent too much time trying to mask a lack of speed at linebacker. Senior Ronnell Sandy is a good athlete who was banged up a lot last year. The Knights need him healthy, because his backup is redshirt freshman Alex Thompson, a former quarterback. The outside ‘backers, sophomores Cory Hogue and Jordan Richards, show promise but must be more consistent. The defensive line was equally bad a year ago, and it might be a long way back. Three seniors are projected to start, and O’Leary signed a strong class of linemen, so help is on the way, and it should help to have some veteran players starting this season. But it’s going to be hard not to improve on a defense that allowed almost 180 rush yards per game and only recorded 26 sacks in 13 games.
Overview: Eventually, the defensive problems were too many to overcome for UCF last year. They gave up 93 points and over 1,000 yards in the CUSA title game and bowl game losses. The Knights were actually outgained on the season, which isn’t common for an eight-win team. But the offense is going to be good…perhaps really good. If they can avoid the turnover bug, O’Leary should have another division title contender on his hands. The schedule is favorable, with Southern Mississippi, Pittsburgh, and UAB all visiting Orlando. The toughest conference road game will be a non-divisional game at Houston in late October. I think the Golden Knights will hold off USM and get back to the CUSA title game.
2. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
After seeing a streak of four straight bowl games end in 2001, USM has gotten back on track. They’ve gone to four straight bowl games, including two straight trips to the New Orleans Bowl to whoop up on Sun Belt teams. Jeff Bower has been a model of consistency over his 15 years in Hattiesburg, winning 103 games and taking the Golden Eagles to eight bowls in his tenure.
One constant over the years has been the defense. USM allowed less than 20 points per game for seven straight years before 2004 and 2005, when the averages were 25 and 23 points, respectively. With six starters back on defense and 15 back overall, the expectation is that USM will find their way to a bowl that isn’t against a Sun Belt team.
In good shape: Defensive front seven. USM loses some starters along the line, but returning are senior ends Matthew Chatelain and Shadler Manning. Manning has been up and down a bit in his career, but he emerged as a starter with a huge spring. Junior tackles Ryan Watson and Martavius Prince are undersized, but both should be able to make plays in the middle with their explosiveness. The linebackers are very strong, led by sophomores Gerald McRath and Tokumbo Abanikanda, and while they will miss Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year Kevis Coley in the middle, junior Marcus Raines, the favorite to start in the middle, is a talented player who was a JUCO transfer last year (redshirted in 2005).
Needs work: Secondary. Safety Trevis Coley and cornerback John Eubanks were both All-CUSA last year, and both have departed. The Golden Eagles have some good players returning, but one of them, corner Caleb Hendricks, has had injury problems. Seniors Howard Overby and Jasper Faulk should compete for a starting job, and sophomore Eddie Willingham should see significant time. Junior rover Brandon Sumrall is back, but Coley’s free safety position is still up for grabs entering fall practice. A runner-up here is the quarterback position. USM returns nine starters on offense, but three-year starting QB Dustin Almond is gone, leaving the job for juniors Jeremy Young and Stephen Reaves to fight over. Young is the favorite coming into the fall.
Overview: The offense should be rather strong, no matter who ends up starting under center. USM gets juniors Cody Hull and Larry Thomas, along with sophomore C.J. Barrows, back at running back (translation: the backfield is loaded). Three seniors and a junior return to start on the offensive line, and USM has plenty of pass-catching options. Sophomore TE Shawn Nelson led the team with 35 catches and five scores, including 6 for 121 and two scores in the New Orleans Bowl (Nelson was the game MVP). At WR, senior Anthony Perine and junior Josh Barnes combined for 63 catches and seven more scores last year. There are some holes in the secondary, but Bower has USM loaded and ready for a run at the division title and a berth in the CUSA title game. Barring catastrophic injuries or the inability to find an effective quarterback, the Golden Eagles are practically a shoo-in to get back to a bowl game for a fifth straight season.
3. Marshall Thundering Herd
The Marshall program appears to have survived the transition from longtime coach Bob Pruett to Mark Snyder. Yes, it was Marshall’s first losing season since 1983, but there were strides made as the season wore on, and Marshall looks to be in good position to return to the bowl season after a one-year absence.
It was a tough season for the Herd and for Snyder. He didn’t take over until after spring because Pruett retired late in the offseason, and he only had six starters back from 2004. The quarterback position was in poor shape, a rarity for a school that produced such NFL starters as Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich.
The outlook is brighter this season, thanks to 15 returning starters and a full offseason program under Snyder. Unfortunately, the non-conference schedule is tougher, and the improvement might not be fully reflected in the Herd’s record.
In good shape: Running back. The Herd’s strongest returning player is starting back Ahmad Bradshaw. He finished just short of 1,000 yards a year ago, despite having a offensive line in front of him that struggled mightily at times. Eight of the Herd’s top ten linemen return, and they have four returning starters from last year’s team. With the expected improvement at quarterback and long the line, Bradshaw should be in for a big season.
Needs work: Quarterback. It’s going to be hard for the production out of the quarterback position to be worse than it was last year. In the second year of Snyder and coordinator Larry Kueck’s system, expectations have grown for Bernie Morris and Jimmy Skinner. At this point, most sources indicate that Morris, a junior, has the inside track on the job. He only hit a shade under 53 percent of his passes in limited duty last year, but showed good athleticism, and his decision-making improved in the spring. For a school that has been so good with quarterbacks, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll continue the free-fall that started last year. But it is an area of huge concern entering fall practice.
Overview: The defense should be much improved this year. Snyder has tackles Juan Underwood and Adrian Davis back, along with senior linebackers Dennis Thornton and Matt Couch. Hopes are high that newcomer Josh Johnson, a former Georgia signee, will make a huge impact at linebacker. Top receivers Hiram Moore and Marcus Fitzgerald return, too. The schedule is a bear, with trips to West Virginia, Kansas State, and Tennessee on the slate in the first four weeks. If Marshall can survive that, they’ll be in good shape for a potential bowl trip. But that might be too much to ask.
4. East Carolina Pirates
When Skip Holtz took over as head coach last year, he knew he had some work to do. The players weren’t big enough or strong enough, and the roster wasn’t deep enough.
As is custom for many college programs, Holtz redshirted 21 of his incoming freshmen, allowing them to acclimate themselves to college life, along with getting bigger and stronger before they played their freshman year. The Pirates struggled mightily at times last year, but improved overall on defense, and they were much more consistent on offense. The result was a 5-6 record that left ECU one win short of bowl eligibility. Holtz can feign disappointment all he wants, but deep down, he has to be pleased with the result. It was a good start to the rebuilding project (as recently as 2001, ECU was a bowl team).
In good shape: Quarterback. After having to straighten out his academics, James Pinkney began to assert himself as the best quarterback on this football team. Pinkney ended up starting all eleven games, and he threw all but three of the passes thrown by ECU quarterbacks last year. He upped his completion percentage to 61 and threw for over 2,700 yards and 14 TDs. He’s a very good athlete who showed a great grasp of the offense last year. He should only be better this year as the talent around him continues to improve.
Needs work: Run defense. The last time ECU was in a bowl game, 2001, was also the last time that the run defense allowed fewer than 200 yards per game. In successive years, they’ve yielded 207, 210, 233, and 218 yards per game on the ground. As you can probably imagine, this is somewhat less than good, and it needs to improve. Now. ECU has some people in place who might play a part in making the run defense respectable, but it won’t be easy to reverse this trend in one seaso. Junior end Marcus Hands is a big boy who can be a factor in the run game, and sophomore tackle Brandon Setzer takes up a lot of space in the middle. He accounted for 6.5 tackles for loss as a freshman.
Overview: The Pirates simply have to get better on defense. The secondary made positive strides last year, and they played a huge role in the scoring defense improving by more than ten points from 2004 to 2005. Now, it’s time for the front seven to be tougher against the run. The Pirates won back-to-back games at the end of the season, even knocking UAB out of bowl eligibility. This is their chance to build on that momentum in Holtz’s second season. The schedule is a bit odd, with five home games following back-to-back road games to start the season. Four of the last five are on the road. It will be difficult for Holtz to get the six wins required to gain bowl eligibility, but ECU should keep getting better, and a return to the bowl picture may come in 2007 or 2008.
5. UAB Blazers
Last year was certainly a disappointment for the Blazers. With senior QB Darrell Hackney back, along with a talented offense, UAB was expected to compete for the East Division title, and they were favored by many pundits to win it. Instead, UAB went into a free-fall on their home field. The Blazers lost to SMU, Southern Miss, and Central Florida at home, then suffered an upset loss at East Carolina in the regular-season finale that cost them a shot at a bowl game. Hackney was solid, but the offense wasn’t as sharp as it was in 2004, and the Blazers were a composite -9 in turnovers in the aforementioned four losses.
Sometimes, a house-cleaning can be a good thing, and UAB has certainly done that in their passing game this year. Gone are Hackney and an astounding six of the top seven pass-catchers from 2005.
In good shape: Offensive line. And considering the other losses, this is definitely a good thing. The Blazers return four starters and a few key reserves, so they should have good front-line talent, along with depth that can overcome a couple injuries. Senior tackles Julius Wilson and Cornelius Rogers are back, along with senior guard Quinton Harris. Redshirt freshman Jake Seitz would start at center, but the coaches have decided to give him one more year to develop by moving junior guard Adam Truitt to center. Senior Alan Leon is going to start at Truitt’s guard position. The Blazers averaged 4.3 rush yards per carry last year while permitting only 15 sacks. Even with an inexperienced quarterback, those stats might both improve this year.
Needs work: Passing game. Who’s going to throw the ball, and who’s going to get open and make the catches? Senior Chris Williams, who has three starts in three years, should start the opener, but it’s a question mark beyond that. Junior Sam Hunt and redshirt freshman Joe Webb don’t have the experience, but both have good size and physical talent and could push for the job if Williams is ineffective. The Blazers are fortunate to have a couple of upperclassmen available at receiver in senior Nick Coon and junior Willie Edwards. Coon has only caught three passes since his freshman year, while Edwards may have earned a chance to start with an impressive spring. Sophomores Steven Brown and Todd Tate might fit in the mix as well.
Overview: Last year might have been UAB’s best shot for a while. The defense should improve this year, led by senior ends Jermaine McElveen and Larry McSwain, along with senior linebackers Orlandus King and Mastaki Smith. But will it improve enough to carry this team when the offense struggles to get off the ground in the early going? Williams will need to be good from the start, because he’s stuck learning how to work with this new group of receivers. His saving grace might be the offensive line and the running game, where four seniors return who have gained 100 yards in a game. Corey White is the best of that group. The schedule includes paycheck games at Oklahoma and Georgia, along with conference road trips to improved SMU and East Division favorites Southern Miss and Central Florida (the latter two come in back-to-back weeks at the end of the regular season). The defense will be good, but I don’t think it’s going to be good enough to carry UAB to the six wins they’ll need to make a bowl game.
6. Memphis Tigers
After an unprecedented run of three straight bowl appearances (two wins), the Tigers might hit a road block in what has been a renaissance of sorts under Tommy West.
The presence of DeAngelo Williams (1,964 yards rushing, 18 TDs) last year made the loss of star quarterback Danny Wimprine a bit less painful for Memphis. Now, West must deal with the graduation of Williams and the loss of starting quarterback Maurice Avery. In some ways, it might make life easier, because there isn’t a clear-cut star for defenses to focus on, and for Memphis coaches to always be trying to get the ball to. But it’s never easy trying to replace production like what Williams gave the Tigers.
In good shape: Offensive line. This is a huge positive for a team with such glaring skill-position losses. The line returns five guys with starting experience, and they should have three seniors and a junior starting when the season opens. Senior center Stephen Schuh started the last seven games last year, and versatile senior guard Blake Butler has also been a tackle and center in college. The one sophomore, tackle Brandon Pearce, was an all-Conference USA freshman last year. There is talent and experience here, and West knows he can lean on his front to make things as easy as possible on the new guys in the backfield.
Needs work: You pick…quarterback/running back. Avery gave it his all last year, but he couldn’t be consistently productive, and he was basically a hand-off machine. That said, he was a good athlete who was dangerous enough to keep defenses from fully keying on Williams. Speaking of Williams, he went for 85 yards against Ole Miss and didn’t play in the Tennessee game, but still managed five 200-yard games and seven games with two or more TDs. Junior Martin Hankins, a SE Louisiana transfer, is the smart bet to take over at quarterback. Fellow junior Joseph Doss has the inside track to start at running back.
Overview: Memphis is in transition. The offense is going to be carried by their line early as the new skill talent develops. Senior WR Ryan Scott should expect to see a lot of double coverage early, as his 37 receptions last year are more than double the second-highest total among Memphis players. The defense should at least hold form from last year, when it allowed around 23 points per game. Junior linebackers Greg Hinds and Heath Grant are both strong, and the Tigers are lucky enough to have senior starters Jamaal Rufus and Brandon McDonald back at the corner spots. The schedule is somewhat difficult, with conference games against West Division stalwarts UTEP, Houston, and Tulsa, along with a season-opening trip to Mississippi. It’s going to be tough for West to keep the bowl streak going, but he should be able to build the foundation for more offensive success in 2007.
EAST DIVISION
1. Central Florida Golden Knights
2004:
0-11 record, outscored by an average of 33-16, outgained by an average of 403-280.
With that in mind, could anyone have predicted that UCF would end up in the Conference USA title game in their inaugural season of CUSA play?
What George O’Leary did here is simply incredible. He took over UCF after a disastrous 2003 season and spent the entire 2004 season cleaning house and restoring an attitude and desire in the players that was lacking. Almost everyone returned last year, and once they beat Marshall in their home opener, everything started to click.
This year’s team could be even better. 17 starters return, and after a disappointing close to the season that saw UCF lose the CUSA title game at home and then lose a heartbreaker in the bowl game, there should be no lack of motivation.
In good shape: Offensive backfield. Senior QB Steven Moffett was one of the players who ran afoul of O’Leary’s ways in 2004. O’Leary, as Phil Steele chronicled, wanted a take-charge guy in the huddle, and Moffett was pretty laid-back. He emerged, however, as one of the best in the league last year, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and 22 scores. He needs to improve his completion percentage and do a better job finding open receivers instead of deciding to take off and run. After all, why take off and run yourself when you have Kevin Smith and Jason Peters available to do it for you? Smith got close to 1,200 yards last year as a freshman, while the senior Peters went for nearly 600 as the fullback. Senior Dontavius Wilcox is a very capable backup to Smith.
Needs work: Defensive front seven. It’s not a question of returning talent here. Instead, the problem is that the players starting at linebacker were simply not that good in 2006. UCF’s top three tacklers last year were defensive backs. Those DBs, corners Johnell Neal and Joe Burnett, along with safety Jason Venson, all got significant playing time as freshmen and played pretty well, but they spent too much time trying to mask a lack of speed at linebacker. Senior Ronnell Sandy is a good athlete who was banged up a lot last year. The Knights need him healthy, because his backup is redshirt freshman Alex Thompson, a former quarterback. The outside ‘backers, sophomores Cory Hogue and Jordan Richards, show promise but must be more consistent. The defensive line was equally bad a year ago, and it might be a long way back. Three seniors are projected to start, and O’Leary signed a strong class of linemen, so help is on the way, and it should help to have some veteran players starting this season. But it’s going to be hard not to improve on a defense that allowed almost 180 rush yards per game and only recorded 26 sacks in 13 games.
Overview: Eventually, the defensive problems were too many to overcome for UCF last year. They gave up 93 points and over 1,000 yards in the CUSA title game and bowl game losses. The Knights were actually outgained on the season, which isn’t common for an eight-win team. But the offense is going to be good…perhaps really good. If they can avoid the turnover bug, O’Leary should have another division title contender on his hands. The schedule is favorable, with Southern Mississippi, Pittsburgh, and UAB all visiting Orlando. The toughest conference road game will be a non-divisional game at Houston in late October. I think the Golden Knights will hold off USM and get back to the CUSA title game.
2. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
After seeing a streak of four straight bowl games end in 2001, USM has gotten back on track. They’ve gone to four straight bowl games, including two straight trips to the New Orleans Bowl to whoop up on Sun Belt teams. Jeff Bower has been a model of consistency over his 15 years in Hattiesburg, winning 103 games and taking the Golden Eagles to eight bowls in his tenure.
One constant over the years has been the defense. USM allowed less than 20 points per game for seven straight years before 2004 and 2005, when the averages were 25 and 23 points, respectively. With six starters back on defense and 15 back overall, the expectation is that USM will find their way to a bowl that isn’t against a Sun Belt team.
In good shape: Defensive front seven. USM loses some starters along the line, but returning are senior ends Matthew Chatelain and Shadler Manning. Manning has been up and down a bit in his career, but he emerged as a starter with a huge spring. Junior tackles Ryan Watson and Martavius Prince are undersized, but both should be able to make plays in the middle with their explosiveness. The linebackers are very strong, led by sophomores Gerald McRath and Tokumbo Abanikanda, and while they will miss Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year Kevis Coley in the middle, junior Marcus Raines, the favorite to start in the middle, is a talented player who was a JUCO transfer last year (redshirted in 2005).
Needs work: Secondary. Safety Trevis Coley and cornerback John Eubanks were both All-CUSA last year, and both have departed. The Golden Eagles have some good players returning, but one of them, corner Caleb Hendricks, has had injury problems. Seniors Howard Overby and Jasper Faulk should compete for a starting job, and sophomore Eddie Willingham should see significant time. Junior rover Brandon Sumrall is back, but Coley’s free safety position is still up for grabs entering fall practice. A runner-up here is the quarterback position. USM returns nine starters on offense, but three-year starting QB Dustin Almond is gone, leaving the job for juniors Jeremy Young and Stephen Reaves to fight over. Young is the favorite coming into the fall.
Overview: The offense should be rather strong, no matter who ends up starting under center. USM gets juniors Cody Hull and Larry Thomas, along with sophomore C.J. Barrows, back at running back (translation: the backfield is loaded). Three seniors and a junior return to start on the offensive line, and USM has plenty of pass-catching options. Sophomore TE Shawn Nelson led the team with 35 catches and five scores, including 6 for 121 and two scores in the New Orleans Bowl (Nelson was the game MVP). At WR, senior Anthony Perine and junior Josh Barnes combined for 63 catches and seven more scores last year. There are some holes in the secondary, but Bower has USM loaded and ready for a run at the division title and a berth in the CUSA title game. Barring catastrophic injuries or the inability to find an effective quarterback, the Golden Eagles are practically a shoo-in to get back to a bowl game for a fifth straight season.
3. Marshall Thundering Herd
The Marshall program appears to have survived the transition from longtime coach Bob Pruett to Mark Snyder. Yes, it was Marshall’s first losing season since 1983, but there were strides made as the season wore on, and Marshall looks to be in good position to return to the bowl season after a one-year absence.
It was a tough season for the Herd and for Snyder. He didn’t take over until after spring because Pruett retired late in the offseason, and he only had six starters back from 2004. The quarterback position was in poor shape, a rarity for a school that produced such NFL starters as Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich.
The outlook is brighter this season, thanks to 15 returning starters and a full offseason program under Snyder. Unfortunately, the non-conference schedule is tougher, and the improvement might not be fully reflected in the Herd’s record.
In good shape: Running back. The Herd’s strongest returning player is starting back Ahmad Bradshaw. He finished just short of 1,000 yards a year ago, despite having a offensive line in front of him that struggled mightily at times. Eight of the Herd’s top ten linemen return, and they have four returning starters from last year’s team. With the expected improvement at quarterback and long the line, Bradshaw should be in for a big season.
Needs work: Quarterback. It’s going to be hard for the production out of the quarterback position to be worse than it was last year. In the second year of Snyder and coordinator Larry Kueck’s system, expectations have grown for Bernie Morris and Jimmy Skinner. At this point, most sources indicate that Morris, a junior, has the inside track on the job. He only hit a shade under 53 percent of his passes in limited duty last year, but showed good athleticism, and his decision-making improved in the spring. For a school that has been so good with quarterbacks, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll continue the free-fall that started last year. But it is an area of huge concern entering fall practice.
Overview: The defense should be much improved this year. Snyder has tackles Juan Underwood and Adrian Davis back, along with senior linebackers Dennis Thornton and Matt Couch. Hopes are high that newcomer Josh Johnson, a former Georgia signee, will make a huge impact at linebacker. Top receivers Hiram Moore and Marcus Fitzgerald return, too. The schedule is a bear, with trips to West Virginia, Kansas State, and Tennessee on the slate in the first four weeks. If Marshall can survive that, they’ll be in good shape for a potential bowl trip. But that might be too much to ask.
4. East Carolina Pirates
When Skip Holtz took over as head coach last year, he knew he had some work to do. The players weren’t big enough or strong enough, and the roster wasn’t deep enough.
As is custom for many college programs, Holtz redshirted 21 of his incoming freshmen, allowing them to acclimate themselves to college life, along with getting bigger and stronger before they played their freshman year. The Pirates struggled mightily at times last year, but improved overall on defense, and they were much more consistent on offense. The result was a 5-6 record that left ECU one win short of bowl eligibility. Holtz can feign disappointment all he wants, but deep down, he has to be pleased with the result. It was a good start to the rebuilding project (as recently as 2001, ECU was a bowl team).
In good shape: Quarterback. After having to straighten out his academics, James Pinkney began to assert himself as the best quarterback on this football team. Pinkney ended up starting all eleven games, and he threw all but three of the passes thrown by ECU quarterbacks last year. He upped his completion percentage to 61 and threw for over 2,700 yards and 14 TDs. He’s a very good athlete who showed a great grasp of the offense last year. He should only be better this year as the talent around him continues to improve.
Needs work: Run defense. The last time ECU was in a bowl game, 2001, was also the last time that the run defense allowed fewer than 200 yards per game. In successive years, they’ve yielded 207, 210, 233, and 218 yards per game on the ground. As you can probably imagine, this is somewhat less than good, and it needs to improve. Now. ECU has some people in place who might play a part in making the run defense respectable, but it won’t be easy to reverse this trend in one seaso. Junior end Marcus Hands is a big boy who can be a factor in the run game, and sophomore tackle Brandon Setzer takes up a lot of space in the middle. He accounted for 6.5 tackles for loss as a freshman.
Overview: The Pirates simply have to get better on defense. The secondary made positive strides last year, and they played a huge role in the scoring defense improving by more than ten points from 2004 to 2005. Now, it’s time for the front seven to be tougher against the run. The Pirates won back-to-back games at the end of the season, even knocking UAB out of bowl eligibility. This is their chance to build on that momentum in Holtz’s second season. The schedule is a bit odd, with five home games following back-to-back road games to start the season. Four of the last five are on the road. It will be difficult for Holtz to get the six wins required to gain bowl eligibility, but ECU should keep getting better, and a return to the bowl picture may come in 2007 or 2008.
5. UAB Blazers
Last year was certainly a disappointment for the Blazers. With senior QB Darrell Hackney back, along with a talented offense, UAB was expected to compete for the East Division title, and they were favored by many pundits to win it. Instead, UAB went into a free-fall on their home field. The Blazers lost to SMU, Southern Miss, and Central Florida at home, then suffered an upset loss at East Carolina in the regular-season finale that cost them a shot at a bowl game. Hackney was solid, but the offense wasn’t as sharp as it was in 2004, and the Blazers were a composite -9 in turnovers in the aforementioned four losses.
Sometimes, a house-cleaning can be a good thing, and UAB has certainly done that in their passing game this year. Gone are Hackney and an astounding six of the top seven pass-catchers from 2005.
In good shape: Offensive line. And considering the other losses, this is definitely a good thing. The Blazers return four starters and a few key reserves, so they should have good front-line talent, along with depth that can overcome a couple injuries. Senior tackles Julius Wilson and Cornelius Rogers are back, along with senior guard Quinton Harris. Redshirt freshman Jake Seitz would start at center, but the coaches have decided to give him one more year to develop by moving junior guard Adam Truitt to center. Senior Alan Leon is going to start at Truitt’s guard position. The Blazers averaged 4.3 rush yards per carry last year while permitting only 15 sacks. Even with an inexperienced quarterback, those stats might both improve this year.
Needs work: Passing game. Who’s going to throw the ball, and who’s going to get open and make the catches? Senior Chris Williams, who has three starts in three years, should start the opener, but it’s a question mark beyond that. Junior Sam Hunt and redshirt freshman Joe Webb don’t have the experience, but both have good size and physical talent and could push for the job if Williams is ineffective. The Blazers are fortunate to have a couple of upperclassmen available at receiver in senior Nick Coon and junior Willie Edwards. Coon has only caught three passes since his freshman year, while Edwards may have earned a chance to start with an impressive spring. Sophomores Steven Brown and Todd Tate might fit in the mix as well.
Overview: Last year might have been UAB’s best shot for a while. The defense should improve this year, led by senior ends Jermaine McElveen and Larry McSwain, along with senior linebackers Orlandus King and Mastaki Smith. But will it improve enough to carry this team when the offense struggles to get off the ground in the early going? Williams will need to be good from the start, because he’s stuck learning how to work with this new group of receivers. His saving grace might be the offensive line and the running game, where four seniors return who have gained 100 yards in a game. Corey White is the best of that group. The schedule includes paycheck games at Oklahoma and Georgia, along with conference road trips to improved SMU and East Division favorites Southern Miss and Central Florida (the latter two come in back-to-back weeks at the end of the regular season). The defense will be good, but I don’t think it’s going to be good enough to carry UAB to the six wins they’ll need to make a bowl game.
6. Memphis Tigers
After an unprecedented run of three straight bowl appearances (two wins), the Tigers might hit a road block in what has been a renaissance of sorts under Tommy West.
The presence of DeAngelo Williams (1,964 yards rushing, 18 TDs) last year made the loss of star quarterback Danny Wimprine a bit less painful for Memphis. Now, West must deal with the graduation of Williams and the loss of starting quarterback Maurice Avery. In some ways, it might make life easier, because there isn’t a clear-cut star for defenses to focus on, and for Memphis coaches to always be trying to get the ball to. But it’s never easy trying to replace production like what Williams gave the Tigers.
In good shape: Offensive line. This is a huge positive for a team with such glaring skill-position losses. The line returns five guys with starting experience, and they should have three seniors and a junior starting when the season opens. Senior center Stephen Schuh started the last seven games last year, and versatile senior guard Blake Butler has also been a tackle and center in college. The one sophomore, tackle Brandon Pearce, was an all-Conference USA freshman last year. There is talent and experience here, and West knows he can lean on his front to make things as easy as possible on the new guys in the backfield.
Needs work: You pick…quarterback/running back. Avery gave it his all last year, but he couldn’t be consistently productive, and he was basically a hand-off machine. That said, he was a good athlete who was dangerous enough to keep defenses from fully keying on Williams. Speaking of Williams, he went for 85 yards against Ole Miss and didn’t play in the Tennessee game, but still managed five 200-yard games and seven games with two or more TDs. Junior Martin Hankins, a SE Louisiana transfer, is the smart bet to take over at quarterback. Fellow junior Joseph Doss has the inside track to start at running back.
Overview: Memphis is in transition. The offense is going to be carried by their line early as the new skill talent develops. Senior WR Ryan Scott should expect to see a lot of double coverage early, as his 37 receptions last year are more than double the second-highest total among Memphis players. The defense should at least hold form from last year, when it allowed around 23 points per game. Junior linebackers Greg Hinds and Heath Grant are both strong, and the Tigers are lucky enough to have senior starters Jamaal Rufus and Brandon McDonald back at the corner spots. The schedule is somewhat difficult, with conference games against West Division stalwarts UTEP, Houston, and Tulsa, along with a season-opening trip to Mississippi. It’s going to be tough for West to keep the bowl streak going, but he should be able to build the foundation for more offensive success in 2007.
Randomization: 08/08/06
Liriano out? I mentioned last week that Twins rookie pitching phenom Francisco Liriano was going to miss a start because of inflammation in his forearm. When I brought that up, I made it clear that it wasn't a big deal if Liriano missed only one start.
Well, the verdict is in...and it's a big deal. Liriano could be headed to the disabled list because his elbow didn't behave itself last night in the Twins' 9-3 loss to Detroit. Liriano's elbow could be the downfall of the Twins' season, unless they can petition to get another 15 games against Kansas City.
Sounds like Liriano's pretty scared, as the Star Tribune article said he was fighting tears in the clubhouse when he was talking about the situation. The concern being shown by Liriano and other members of the organization shouldn't be taken lightly. They know that he's in trouble, as an elbow injury in your rookie season in the bigs is really not a good sign.
This might mean an early callup for Matt Garza, probably best-known at this point as the guy Washington wanted to get in exchange for Alfonso Soriano. Garza has been described as "not ready" by people in the Twins' brass, but he has to be more ready than Scott Baker, Mike Smith, or Boofie.
"Yes, that Roeth...Roethlis...#7 in white flipped me off. He's a jerk." It's a good idea with plenty of potential for misuse. The Cincinnati Bengals recognize a few things:
1. There are a lot of unruly, rude, obnoxious, drunk, or all-of-the-above people at a professional football game.
2. There are a lot of people who are too lazy to walk to Fan Services to report #1 when they encounter #1 at a professional football game.
3. Just because people are too lazy to report #1 doesn't mean that the organization shouldn't try to do something about the issue.
The Bengals have started up a hotline that people can call during games to report unruly fans in Paul Brown Stadium. The number should be pretty easy to remember.
Of course, this opens up the possibility that a fan could turn in a perfectly well-behaved fan of the visiting team, or that a fan could find someone in the stands that they don't like or are in a non-Bengals-related dispute with. Or that fans could call in to turn in Ben Roethlisberger, or however you say it.
Bob Bedinghaus, the Bengals' director of stadium development, apparently saw that possibility and decided toscare away potential offenders with a blatant lie ensure that fans prank-calling the hotline could be dealt with:
What's so bad about a confession? I don't mean to come across as wanting to burn Floyd Landis at the stake, but this is getting ridiculous. Why not just admit that you cheated and got burned for it? Is it so terrible to admit to doing it? After all, anyone with common sense realizes that you did.
Instead, we get more excuses.
When appearing on ESPN in an interview with Colleen Dominguez, Landis said that the issue with the ratio of testosterone in his body could have been caused by his body not producing enough epitestosterone. That's funny, because when reports of his failed drug test surfaced, Landis said that his body naturally produced high levels of testosterone.
There was the whiskey drink. There was the high level of competition. There was the WADA agenda. And the possibility of a tainted sample.
No admissions. Just excuses. And they're getting old.
Just own it, Floyd. No one will respect you either way, but at least you might have a chance to salvage a small amount of dignity.
Well, the verdict is in...and it's a big deal. Liriano could be headed to the disabled list because his elbow didn't behave itself last night in the Twins' 9-3 loss to Detroit. Liriano's elbow could be the downfall of the Twins' season, unless they can petition to get another 15 games against Kansas City.
Sounds like Liriano's pretty scared, as the Star Tribune article said he was fighting tears in the clubhouse when he was talking about the situation. The concern being shown by Liriano and other members of the organization shouldn't be taken lightly. They know that he's in trouble, as an elbow injury in your rookie season in the bigs is really not a good sign.
This might mean an early callup for Matt Garza, probably best-known at this point as the guy Washington wanted to get in exchange for Alfonso Soriano. Garza has been described as "not ready" by people in the Twins' brass, but he has to be more ready than Scott Baker, Mike Smith, or Boofie.
"Yes, that Roeth...Roethlis...#7 in white flipped me off. He's a jerk." It's a good idea with plenty of potential for misuse. The Cincinnati Bengals recognize a few things:
1. There are a lot of unruly, rude, obnoxious, drunk, or all-of-the-above people at a professional football game.
2. There are a lot of people who are too lazy to walk to Fan Services to report #1 when they encounter #1 at a professional football game.
3. Just because people are too lazy to report #1 doesn't mean that the organization shouldn't try to do something about the issue.
The Bengals have started up a hotline that people can call during games to report unruly fans in Paul Brown Stadium. The number should be pretty easy to remember.
Of course, this opens up the possibility that a fan could turn in a perfectly well-behaved fan of the visiting team, or that a fan could find someone in the stands that they don't like or are in a non-Bengals-related dispute with. Or that fans could call in to turn in Ben Roethlisberger, or however you say it.
Bob Bedinghaus, the Bengals' director of stadium development, apparently saw that possibility and decided to
"If you get 6,000 people calling this line _ 'Hey, (Steelers quarterback) Ben Roethlisberger is a jerk' _ then it becomes less effective," he said. "The thing to remember is we have caller ID on this line."
What's so bad about a confession? I don't mean to come across as wanting to burn Floyd Landis at the stake, but this is getting ridiculous. Why not just admit that you cheated and got burned for it? Is it so terrible to admit to doing it? After all, anyone with common sense realizes that you did.
Instead, we get more excuses.
When appearing on ESPN in an interview with Colleen Dominguez, Landis said that the issue with the ratio of testosterone in his body could have been caused by his body not producing enough epitestosterone. That's funny, because when reports of his failed drug test surfaced, Landis said that his body naturally produced high levels of testosterone.
There was the whiskey drink. There was the high level of competition. There was the WADA agenda. And the possibility of a tainted sample.
No admissions. Just excuses. And they're getting old.
Just own it, Floyd. No one will respect you either way, but at least you might have a chance to salvage a small amount of dignity.
Saturday, August 05, 2006
College football preview: Big 12 North
BIG 12 CONFERENCE
NORTH DIVISION
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Look out.
Bill Callahan appears to get it. He’s still not the warmest soul walking the Big 12 sidelines. He’s not the most vibrant personality, and he’s still capable of rubbing people the wrong way with his sometimes-abrasive personality. He’s all-business. He’s competitive. And he may be about to turn a corner in Lincoln.
There are still hiccups, like an uninspiring 25-7 win over I-AA Maine, and a running game that averaged just 96 yards per game. Callahan and his offensive coordinator, Jay Norvell, have worked hard in the spring to revive the running game, which they see as an integral part of the offense. The quarterback and receivers are in place, and the defense is getting closer to “Blackshirt” form. This is a pivotal year for Callahan, because if he can develop that running game, a ten-win season could be the reward.
In good shape: Passing game. It still doesn’t look right for Nebraska to be throwing the ball 30-40 times per game, but that’s what they are doing. And they’re getting better at it. Zac Taylor returns as the quarterback after hitting just a shade over 55 percent of throws last year. His 2,653 yards last year put him less than 2,400 yards away from the school career record for passing yards. The senior has plenty of great young talent to throw to, highlighted by sophomore Nate Swift and juniors Terrence Nunn and Maurice Purify, a JUCO transfer. Taylor still has to be more consistent, but it will help if the Cornhuskers can develop a better running game.
Needs work: Running game. 96 yards per game? That’s somewhat less than good. Callahan and Norvell have a couple of sophomores who they think they can rely on in Marlon Lucky and Cody Glenn, but both are unproven at this level. They combined for 19 games last year, and Callahan believes they can carry the load. With the talent Callahan has recruited on the offensive line, they’ll have every opportunity to succeed.
Overview: The Blackshirts are indeed back. Senior DE Adam Carriker leads the way up front, and fellow senior end Jay Moore was honorable mention All-Big 12 a year ago. The linebackers are strong, too, led by All-Big 12 middle ‘backer Corey McKeon and OLBs Bo Ruud and Stewart Bradley. They should combine to further improve a run defense that allowed but 3.2 rush yards per carry a year ago. The secondary should again be good, despite the loss of safety Daniel Bullocks. The Cornhuskers have two layups before a September 16 showdown at USC, and they should be no worse than 4-1 when they visit Iowa State. Texas visits in late October, in a game that could propel Nebraska into Big 12 title contention if they can pull an upset. I don’t see this team contending for a national title, but Nebraska has the goods to win ten games if they can improve the running game and Taylor’s consistency.
2. Iowa State Cyclones
When your team is struggling for a few years, and you start to grumble about the current head coach, think about Dan McCarney and Iowa State. McCarney was 13-42 in his first five years at ISU, a record that, even at the most downtrodden program, is good enough to get fired. Since then, McCarney is 39-35, and the Cyclones have appeared in five bowl games, winning two of them.
Luckily for Cyclone fans, McCarney’s background is with defense. With the heavy personnel losses on defense after the 2005 season, they’ll need all the coaching they can get to keep up with Big 12 offenses.
In good shape: Quarterback. There are plenty of options on offense here. But Bret Meyer might be the best athlete playing quarterback in the Big 12 now that Mr. Young has moved on to the NFL. Meyer enters his third year as a starter, and he improved his numbers dramatically in 2005, completing 61 percent of his throws for 19 scores after hitting just 51 percent for 10 scores as a freshman. Meyer has the offensive line (five senior starters) and the skill-position weapons, and he should be in for a fantastic season.
Needs work: Linebacker. The Cyclones lose leading tacklers Tim Dobbins, who posted 103 tackles and 6.5 tackles for loss, and Matt Robertson, who also posted 103 tackles (Robertson was set to return, but got kicked off the team after testing positive for a banned nutritional supplement). McCarney has some depth back, including Michigan State transfer Tyrone McKenzie, who should start on the outside, and sophomore Adam Carter, who started six games a year ago. But losing a combined 206 tackles is going to be hard on this group unless McKenzie becomes the star McCarney hopes he’ll be.
Overview: With the likes of Jason Berryman, Nick Leaders, Dobbins, Robertson, and first team All-Big 12 corner LaMarcus Hicks gone, the Cyclones better be prepared to rely on their offense early. Opening non-conference matchups with Toledo and UNLV won’t be easy, because both teams employ versions of the spread offense, and ISU’s defensive personnel is questionable enough to cause worry if the opposition can move the ball consistently. However, the Cyclones pack some serious power on offense, with the likes of Todd Blythe and Austin Flynn waiting for Meyer’s passes, and a healthy Stevie Hicks running the ball. I expect the Cyclones to win a couple shootouts before the defense comes into form, and if they can survive the Iowa-Texas road trips with no worse than a 2-2 overall record, they could be in line for eight or nine wins and a solid finish in the Big 12 North.
3. Colorado Buffaloes
Since about 2001, the Colorado football program has had difficulty doing anything without generating some sort of controversy. They blew out Nebraska in the final game of a 10-1 season in 2001, gaining a berth in the Big 12 title game, but it was Nebraska who moved on to play for the national title. There was the Katie Hnida saga, which led to a far-reaching investigation of alleged improprieties in the CU program. Through it all, coach Gary Barnett survived. But Barnett couldn’t survive his Buffaloes being outscored 100-6 in back-to-back losses at the end of the season, including an embarrassing 70-3 loss to Texas in the Big 12 title game. Barnett was let go, and after CU played in the Champs Sports Bowl under interim head coach Mike Hankwitz.
It’s time to usher in a new era of CU football. Colorado hired the successful Dan Hawkins away from Boise State to do it. The eccentric Hawkins is 53-11 as a head coach, and he brings with him a plan to open up the offense with a spread attack.
In good shape: Secondary. The Buffaloes struggled a bit in the pass defense department last year, allowing a rather unsightly 248 yards per game through the air, including 392 to Nebraska and 337 in their first blowout loss to Texas. The good news for Hawkins and defensive coordinator Ron Collins is that three 2005 starters return, along with junior CB Terrence Wheatley, who missed last season with a wrist injury. Senior CB Lorenzo Sims broke up 17 passes last year, and senior safety J.J. Billingsley started all 13 games and was honorable mention All-Big 12. Sophomore Gardner McKay also fits into this mix.
Needs work: Wide receiver/tight end. Outside of senior WR Blake Mackey, who is coming back from a torn ACL last year, there are a lot of question marks. The Buffs are hoping that both sophomore Patrick Williams and junior Dusty Sprague can continue to emerge and become top wideouts. Both top tight ends from last year, Joel Klopfenstein and Quinn Sypniewski, were taken in the NFL Draft, so that position must also be rebuilt. Overall, Hawkins only has one of CU’s top four pass-catchers from 2005 (Sprague) back.
Overview: The secondary, along with a stout defensive line, should make for a pretty good CU defense. Hawkins appears to be set on that side of the ball. The offense, however, is stuffed full of question marks. Who plays quarterback? Smart money is on junior Bernard Jackson keeping the seat warm while Hawkins’ son Cody redshirts. Can the relatively undersized Hugh Charles carry the running game again? Will CU be able to field a solid offensive line? The interior should be good, led by senior guard Brian Daniels and senior center Mark Fenton, but new starters are needed at both tackle positions. Hawkins should expect some sort of an adjustment period as the kids get used to his wide-open spread attack, but Hawkins’ success at Boise State would lead one to believe that he’ll be successful in Boulder as well.
4. Missouri Tigers
Brad Smith became the first player in NCAA history to post over 8,000 yards passing and over 4,000 yards rushing in his college career. He had two 2,000/1,000-yard seasons, and he owns 69 school records at Missouri, including passing yards (8,799) and rushing yards (4,289).
Despite the gaudy statistics, Missouri only made two bowl appearances, both in the Independence Bowl, with Smith under center. He was only 25-23 as a starting quarterback, but it wasn’t always his fault. He had a lot of pressure on him to carry the offense. The running game rested on his shoulders, and he never had a game-breaking wide receiver to rely on.
Now, the offense has to diversify. Chase Daniel is good, but he’s not as good an athlete as Smith, and Gary Pinkel knows that the players around him will have to improve for the Tigers to get back into the bowl picture in 2006.
In good shape: Defensive line. The Tigers are loaded up front, with five defensive linemen returning that have significant experience. Senior end Brian Smith is undersized at 230 pounds, but he’s an outstanding pass-rusher. He recorded nine sacks last year and is already the school’s all-time career sack leader with 24. Senior tackle Jamar Smith is back after recording 12 tackles for loss last year, and junior tackle Lorenzo Williams had 9.5 TFLs. Senior tackle DeMarcus Scott and end Xzavie Jackson will provide depth.
Needs work: Running back. There’s talent here. That is not questioned. Missouri sports a pair of talented junior backs, and the question isn’t whether they can produce, it’s whether they can produce without Smith, and whether they can stay healthy. Marcus Woods appears to be the top back. He picked up over 700 total yards last year, but missed time with injuries, including a groin injury suffered in the regular-season finale against Kansas. Tony Temple had 883 yards last year, but missed spring practice after shoulder surgery. If Pinkel can somehow keep both these guys healthy, the Tigers’ running game should be in pretty good shape. But that could be a lot to ask.
Overview: Daniel got to play a little bit last year, and he did okay. He threw for 185 yards against Iowa State, and he showed a good knowledge of the offense in his limited work. He needs help at receiver, where Sean Coffey is gone, but Chase Coffman returns along with TE Martin Rucker. Senior receiver Brad Ekwerekwu should also get some chances to shine. The defense looks like it could be pretty strong, and the Tigers are really counting on it to be that way early in the season while Daniel gets acclimated to the starting job. The schedule is not terribly tough early in the season, with visits from Murray State, Mississippi, and Ohio, along with a trip to New Mexico. Missouri has a shot at seven or eight wins, thanks primarily to what should be a stout defense.
5. Kansas Jayhawks
Whoda thunk it? Kansas hires an offensive coach in Mark Mangino, and the defense snaps into form first.
KU’s defense might not have been as good as, say, Ohio State’s last year, but it was very good, especially in comparison to recent efforts from KU defenses. The Jayhawks allowed only 2.4 rushing yards per attempt, and they held opponents to a solid 303 total yards per game (as many as Texas allowed and four per game fewer than Oklahoma).
Now, the true test of Mangino’s offensive personnel comes. The Jayhawks have to replace eight starters on defense, but have seven returning on offense, including 2005 team offensive MVP Jon Cornish at running back.
In good shape: Running back. I gave it away there. KU should be able to run the ball this year. Cornish, a senior who was recruited out of Canada by USC, among others, posted four 100-yard games, including against Houston in the Fort Worth Bowl, along with Nebraska. Clark Green departs, so Brandon McAnderson gets the first shot at backing Cornish up. Thanks to a pretty good offensive line, Cornish, barring injury, is practically a shoo-in to become Kansas’ first 1,000-yard rusher since 1997.
Needs work: Linebacker. With three starters back a year ago, this was probably the strongest single unit on the football team. And they showed it. Nick Reid was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year with 112 tackles and 14 tackles for loss. Kevin Kane and Banks Floodman combined for another 156 tackles and 21 tackles for loss. Oh, and Brandon Perkins posted a team-leading ten quarterback sacks among his 15 tackles. To say that Kansas has some work to do rebuilding this unit would be a massive understatement. Of the new starters, senior outside ‘backer Eric Washington probably has the best chance to impress right away. He’s one of the quicker linebackers in the league.
Overview: It’s been sort of quiet to this point (well, except for the blowup about a Big 12 officiating conspiracy after that Texas game in 2004), but Mangino has done a great job in Lawrence. This program was one of the worst in the Big 12 before he took over, and while it’s been a bit of a process, he’s nursed it to a level of respectability, earning two bowl trips in four years. If Mangino can find a quarterback (and he’s confident he’s found one in redshirt freshman Kerry Meier), the offense is in very good shape. The defense has been built into a strength, and it’s been well-coached. Veteran coordinator Bill Young and linebacker coach Mike Mallory have their work cut out for them, and there will be some lumps early, but I think Kansas has the goods to compete for a minor bowl bid.
6. Kansas State Wildcats
The biggest transition at KSU this year comes on the sideline. After 136 wins over 17 years, Bill Snyder stepped aside following two straight losing seasons. Moving in is former Virginia assistant Ron Prince, who is embarking on his first head coaching job at any level. He has the energy and passion to make this work, but it might take some time to mold the players into the systems he wants to install.
As much fun as we all liked to poke at Snyder for his normally weak non-conference scheduling (regularly scheduling powerhouse opponents like Florida International, McNeese State, Massachusetts, and Western Kentucky, among others), what he did in Manhattan is nothing short of incredible. His 136 wins are more than triple the second-place coach on KSU’s all-time win list, and it’s two more than all of KSU’s coaches had since 1937 (source: Phil Steele).
A similarly weak schedule may allow KSU to get off to a good start this year, but can Prince and his young staff keep them competitive in the Big 12?
In good shape: Defense. If KSU surprises and sneaks into a bowl game this year, it will be on the strength of the defense. Eight starters return, and all three units should be very solid. The defensive line gets back hulking tackles Alphonso Moran and Quintin Echols, and JUCO transfer Rob Jackson will compete for playing time inside. Linebackers Brandon Archer and Zach Diles return after solid efforts last year. Also back are starting corner Bryan Baldwin and safety Marcus Watts, who was honorable mention All-Big 12 last year.
Needs work: Quarterback. Prince wants to run the West Coast offense. As Blue Ribbon reported in their preview, he may have as many as five candidates to choose from at quarterback. The leading candidate appears to be Allen Evridge, who started six games last year with mediocre (at best) results. He hit just 48 percent of his throws and tossed seven picks to just six TDs. But the QB of the future is true freshman Josh Freeman, who reneged on a verbal commitment to Nebraska and signed to play for Prince. Will he be ready? Probably not, and that’s the problem, because Freeman’s the only QB of the bunch whose skill set actually fits Prince’s offense.
Overview: I’m not high on offensive success with such a radical changeover in the philosophy. K-State has been known as a running team for a long time, and Prince will be smart to use his running back, Thomas Clayton, a lot early on while everyone adjusts to the WCO. The defense is strong, and the early schedule is weak, possibly weak enough to allow for KSU to start 6-0 or 5-1. Key is a visit to Baylor, because the Bears aren’t as weak as they used to be. The Wildcats are good enough defensively to contend for a bowl bid, but anything more than six wins should be considered an achievement.
NORTH DIVISION
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Look out.
Bill Callahan appears to get it. He’s still not the warmest soul walking the Big 12 sidelines. He’s not the most vibrant personality, and he’s still capable of rubbing people the wrong way with his sometimes-abrasive personality. He’s all-business. He’s competitive. And he may be about to turn a corner in Lincoln.
There are still hiccups, like an uninspiring 25-7 win over I-AA Maine, and a running game that averaged just 96 yards per game. Callahan and his offensive coordinator, Jay Norvell, have worked hard in the spring to revive the running game, which they see as an integral part of the offense. The quarterback and receivers are in place, and the defense is getting closer to “Blackshirt” form. This is a pivotal year for Callahan, because if he can develop that running game, a ten-win season could be the reward.
In good shape: Passing game. It still doesn’t look right for Nebraska to be throwing the ball 30-40 times per game, but that’s what they are doing. And they’re getting better at it. Zac Taylor returns as the quarterback after hitting just a shade over 55 percent of throws last year. His 2,653 yards last year put him less than 2,400 yards away from the school career record for passing yards. The senior has plenty of great young talent to throw to, highlighted by sophomore Nate Swift and juniors Terrence Nunn and Maurice Purify, a JUCO transfer. Taylor still has to be more consistent, but it will help if the Cornhuskers can develop a better running game.
Needs work: Running game. 96 yards per game? That’s somewhat less than good. Callahan and Norvell have a couple of sophomores who they think they can rely on in Marlon Lucky and Cody Glenn, but both are unproven at this level. They combined for 19 games last year, and Callahan believes they can carry the load. With the talent Callahan has recruited on the offensive line, they’ll have every opportunity to succeed.
Overview: The Blackshirts are indeed back. Senior DE Adam Carriker leads the way up front, and fellow senior end Jay Moore was honorable mention All-Big 12 a year ago. The linebackers are strong, too, led by All-Big 12 middle ‘backer Corey McKeon and OLBs Bo Ruud and Stewart Bradley. They should combine to further improve a run defense that allowed but 3.2 rush yards per carry a year ago. The secondary should again be good, despite the loss of safety Daniel Bullocks. The Cornhuskers have two layups before a September 16 showdown at USC, and they should be no worse than 4-1 when they visit Iowa State. Texas visits in late October, in a game that could propel Nebraska into Big 12 title contention if they can pull an upset. I don’t see this team contending for a national title, but Nebraska has the goods to win ten games if they can improve the running game and Taylor’s consistency.
2. Iowa State Cyclones
When your team is struggling for a few years, and you start to grumble about the current head coach, think about Dan McCarney and Iowa State. McCarney was 13-42 in his first five years at ISU, a record that, even at the most downtrodden program, is good enough to get fired. Since then, McCarney is 39-35, and the Cyclones have appeared in five bowl games, winning two of them.
Luckily for Cyclone fans, McCarney’s background is with defense. With the heavy personnel losses on defense after the 2005 season, they’ll need all the coaching they can get to keep up with Big 12 offenses.
In good shape: Quarterback. There are plenty of options on offense here. But Bret Meyer might be the best athlete playing quarterback in the Big 12 now that Mr. Young has moved on to the NFL. Meyer enters his third year as a starter, and he improved his numbers dramatically in 2005, completing 61 percent of his throws for 19 scores after hitting just 51 percent for 10 scores as a freshman. Meyer has the offensive line (five senior starters) and the skill-position weapons, and he should be in for a fantastic season.
Needs work: Linebacker. The Cyclones lose leading tacklers Tim Dobbins, who posted 103 tackles and 6.5 tackles for loss, and Matt Robertson, who also posted 103 tackles (Robertson was set to return, but got kicked off the team after testing positive for a banned nutritional supplement). McCarney has some depth back, including Michigan State transfer Tyrone McKenzie, who should start on the outside, and sophomore Adam Carter, who started six games a year ago. But losing a combined 206 tackles is going to be hard on this group unless McKenzie becomes the star McCarney hopes he’ll be.
Overview: With the likes of Jason Berryman, Nick Leaders, Dobbins, Robertson, and first team All-Big 12 corner LaMarcus Hicks gone, the Cyclones better be prepared to rely on their offense early. Opening non-conference matchups with Toledo and UNLV won’t be easy, because both teams employ versions of the spread offense, and ISU’s defensive personnel is questionable enough to cause worry if the opposition can move the ball consistently. However, the Cyclones pack some serious power on offense, with the likes of Todd Blythe and Austin Flynn waiting for Meyer’s passes, and a healthy Stevie Hicks running the ball. I expect the Cyclones to win a couple shootouts before the defense comes into form, and if they can survive the Iowa-Texas road trips with no worse than a 2-2 overall record, they could be in line for eight or nine wins and a solid finish in the Big 12 North.
3. Colorado Buffaloes
Since about 2001, the Colorado football program has had difficulty doing anything without generating some sort of controversy. They blew out Nebraska in the final game of a 10-1 season in 2001, gaining a berth in the Big 12 title game, but it was Nebraska who moved on to play for the national title. There was the Katie Hnida saga, which led to a far-reaching investigation of alleged improprieties in the CU program. Through it all, coach Gary Barnett survived. But Barnett couldn’t survive his Buffaloes being outscored 100-6 in back-to-back losses at the end of the season, including an embarrassing 70-3 loss to Texas in the Big 12 title game. Barnett was let go, and after CU played in the Champs Sports Bowl under interim head coach Mike Hankwitz.
It’s time to usher in a new era of CU football. Colorado hired the successful Dan Hawkins away from Boise State to do it. The eccentric Hawkins is 53-11 as a head coach, and he brings with him a plan to open up the offense with a spread attack.
In good shape: Secondary. The Buffaloes struggled a bit in the pass defense department last year, allowing a rather unsightly 248 yards per game through the air, including 392 to Nebraska and 337 in their first blowout loss to Texas. The good news for Hawkins and defensive coordinator Ron Collins is that three 2005 starters return, along with junior CB Terrence Wheatley, who missed last season with a wrist injury. Senior CB Lorenzo Sims broke up 17 passes last year, and senior safety J.J. Billingsley started all 13 games and was honorable mention All-Big 12. Sophomore Gardner McKay also fits into this mix.
Needs work: Wide receiver/tight end. Outside of senior WR Blake Mackey, who is coming back from a torn ACL last year, there are a lot of question marks. The Buffs are hoping that both sophomore Patrick Williams and junior Dusty Sprague can continue to emerge and become top wideouts. Both top tight ends from last year, Joel Klopfenstein and Quinn Sypniewski, were taken in the NFL Draft, so that position must also be rebuilt. Overall, Hawkins only has one of CU’s top four pass-catchers from 2005 (Sprague) back.
Overview: The secondary, along with a stout defensive line, should make for a pretty good CU defense. Hawkins appears to be set on that side of the ball. The offense, however, is stuffed full of question marks. Who plays quarterback? Smart money is on junior Bernard Jackson keeping the seat warm while Hawkins’ son Cody redshirts. Can the relatively undersized Hugh Charles carry the running game again? Will CU be able to field a solid offensive line? The interior should be good, led by senior guard Brian Daniels and senior center Mark Fenton, but new starters are needed at both tackle positions. Hawkins should expect some sort of an adjustment period as the kids get used to his wide-open spread attack, but Hawkins’ success at Boise State would lead one to believe that he’ll be successful in Boulder as well.
4. Missouri Tigers
Brad Smith became the first player in NCAA history to post over 8,000 yards passing and over 4,000 yards rushing in his college career. He had two 2,000/1,000-yard seasons, and he owns 69 school records at Missouri, including passing yards (8,799) and rushing yards (4,289).
Despite the gaudy statistics, Missouri only made two bowl appearances, both in the Independence Bowl, with Smith under center. He was only 25-23 as a starting quarterback, but it wasn’t always his fault. He had a lot of pressure on him to carry the offense. The running game rested on his shoulders, and he never had a game-breaking wide receiver to rely on.
Now, the offense has to diversify. Chase Daniel is good, but he’s not as good an athlete as Smith, and Gary Pinkel knows that the players around him will have to improve for the Tigers to get back into the bowl picture in 2006.
In good shape: Defensive line. The Tigers are loaded up front, with five defensive linemen returning that have significant experience. Senior end Brian Smith is undersized at 230 pounds, but he’s an outstanding pass-rusher. He recorded nine sacks last year and is already the school’s all-time career sack leader with 24. Senior tackle Jamar Smith is back after recording 12 tackles for loss last year, and junior tackle Lorenzo Williams had 9.5 TFLs. Senior tackle DeMarcus Scott and end Xzavie Jackson will provide depth.
Needs work: Running back. There’s talent here. That is not questioned. Missouri sports a pair of talented junior backs, and the question isn’t whether they can produce, it’s whether they can produce without Smith, and whether they can stay healthy. Marcus Woods appears to be the top back. He picked up over 700 total yards last year, but missed time with injuries, including a groin injury suffered in the regular-season finale against Kansas. Tony Temple had 883 yards last year, but missed spring practice after shoulder surgery. If Pinkel can somehow keep both these guys healthy, the Tigers’ running game should be in pretty good shape. But that could be a lot to ask.
Overview: Daniel got to play a little bit last year, and he did okay. He threw for 185 yards against Iowa State, and he showed a good knowledge of the offense in his limited work. He needs help at receiver, where Sean Coffey is gone, but Chase Coffman returns along with TE Martin Rucker. Senior receiver Brad Ekwerekwu should also get some chances to shine. The defense looks like it could be pretty strong, and the Tigers are really counting on it to be that way early in the season while Daniel gets acclimated to the starting job. The schedule is not terribly tough early in the season, with visits from Murray State, Mississippi, and Ohio, along with a trip to New Mexico. Missouri has a shot at seven or eight wins, thanks primarily to what should be a stout defense.
5. Kansas Jayhawks
Whoda thunk it? Kansas hires an offensive coach in Mark Mangino, and the defense snaps into form first.
KU’s defense might not have been as good as, say, Ohio State’s last year, but it was very good, especially in comparison to recent efforts from KU defenses. The Jayhawks allowed only 2.4 rushing yards per attempt, and they held opponents to a solid 303 total yards per game (as many as Texas allowed and four per game fewer than Oklahoma).
Now, the true test of Mangino’s offensive personnel comes. The Jayhawks have to replace eight starters on defense, but have seven returning on offense, including 2005 team offensive MVP Jon Cornish at running back.
In good shape: Running back. I gave it away there. KU should be able to run the ball this year. Cornish, a senior who was recruited out of Canada by USC, among others, posted four 100-yard games, including against Houston in the Fort Worth Bowl, along with Nebraska. Clark Green departs, so Brandon McAnderson gets the first shot at backing Cornish up. Thanks to a pretty good offensive line, Cornish, barring injury, is practically a shoo-in to become Kansas’ first 1,000-yard rusher since 1997.
Needs work: Linebacker. With three starters back a year ago, this was probably the strongest single unit on the football team. And they showed it. Nick Reid was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year with 112 tackles and 14 tackles for loss. Kevin Kane and Banks Floodman combined for another 156 tackles and 21 tackles for loss. Oh, and Brandon Perkins posted a team-leading ten quarterback sacks among his 15 tackles. To say that Kansas has some work to do rebuilding this unit would be a massive understatement. Of the new starters, senior outside ‘backer Eric Washington probably has the best chance to impress right away. He’s one of the quicker linebackers in the league.
Overview: It’s been sort of quiet to this point (well, except for the blowup about a Big 12 officiating conspiracy after that Texas game in 2004), but Mangino has done a great job in Lawrence. This program was one of the worst in the Big 12 before he took over, and while it’s been a bit of a process, he’s nursed it to a level of respectability, earning two bowl trips in four years. If Mangino can find a quarterback (and he’s confident he’s found one in redshirt freshman Kerry Meier), the offense is in very good shape. The defense has been built into a strength, and it’s been well-coached. Veteran coordinator Bill Young and linebacker coach Mike Mallory have their work cut out for them, and there will be some lumps early, but I think Kansas has the goods to compete for a minor bowl bid.
6. Kansas State Wildcats
The biggest transition at KSU this year comes on the sideline. After 136 wins over 17 years, Bill Snyder stepped aside following two straight losing seasons. Moving in is former Virginia assistant Ron Prince, who is embarking on his first head coaching job at any level. He has the energy and passion to make this work, but it might take some time to mold the players into the systems he wants to install.
As much fun as we all liked to poke at Snyder for his normally weak non-conference scheduling (regularly scheduling powerhouse opponents like Florida International, McNeese State, Massachusetts, and Western Kentucky, among others), what he did in Manhattan is nothing short of incredible. His 136 wins are more than triple the second-place coach on KSU’s all-time win list, and it’s two more than all of KSU’s coaches had since 1937 (source: Phil Steele).
A similarly weak schedule may allow KSU to get off to a good start this year, but can Prince and his young staff keep them competitive in the Big 12?
In good shape: Defense. If KSU surprises and sneaks into a bowl game this year, it will be on the strength of the defense. Eight starters return, and all three units should be very solid. The defensive line gets back hulking tackles Alphonso Moran and Quintin Echols, and JUCO transfer Rob Jackson will compete for playing time inside. Linebackers Brandon Archer and Zach Diles return after solid efforts last year. Also back are starting corner Bryan Baldwin and safety Marcus Watts, who was honorable mention All-Big 12 last year.
Needs work: Quarterback. Prince wants to run the West Coast offense. As Blue Ribbon reported in their preview, he may have as many as five candidates to choose from at quarterback. The leading candidate appears to be Allen Evridge, who started six games last year with mediocre (at best) results. He hit just 48 percent of his throws and tossed seven picks to just six TDs. But the QB of the future is true freshman Josh Freeman, who reneged on a verbal commitment to Nebraska and signed to play for Prince. Will he be ready? Probably not, and that’s the problem, because Freeman’s the only QB of the bunch whose skill set actually fits Prince’s offense.
Overview: I’m not high on offensive success with such a radical changeover in the philosophy. K-State has been known as a running team for a long time, and Prince will be smart to use his running back, Thomas Clayton, a lot early on while everyone adjusts to the WCO. The defense is strong, and the early schedule is weak, possibly weak enough to allow for KSU to start 6-0 or 5-1. Key is a visit to Baylor, because the Bears aren’t as weak as they used to be. The Wildcats are good enough defensively to contend for a bowl bid, but anything more than six wins should be considered an achievement.
Friday, August 04, 2006
REG-GIE! REG-GIE!
People can talk about Brett Favre until they're blue in the face (and if they work for ESPN, they probably will). And they should, because Favre has been great.
But April 6, 1993, was the day the Green Bay Packers became viable again. That was the day that defensive end Reggie White signed with the Packers, becoming the first major player in the NFL to switch teams in the new free agency system.
White took the largest financial offer, which made sense, since the Packers were just emerging from a string of futility that had, for the most part, been going on since Vince Lombardi left the franchise after Super Bowl II. It shocked the NFL, because no one knew at the time the impact that free agency and a salary cap would have on the league or on free agency (the cap came into play in 1994), and Green Bay was still considered a league outpost of sorts, a place that players would never consider going to on purpose.
But when Reggie White signed in Green Bay, that all changed. Suddenly, it was okay to play in the NFL's smallest market again. And the Packers began to flourish.
White led a resurgence on the defensive side of the football, and the Packers parlayed his presence into the free-agent signings of DT Santana Dotson and star DE Sean Jones, key players on the defensive line as the Packers surged towards back-to-back NFC title game appearances in 1995 and 1996. White recovered from serious elbow and knee injuries to continue his MVP-caliber play, constantly fighting through double-teams to wreak havoc in the backfield while also giving other players a chance to shine because they were only being blocked one-on-one.
White's larger-than-life image was further enlarged in Green Bay, where his impact on the community and the state will never be fairly measured with words. And his death was a day of great shock and sadness, not only in Green Bay, but throughout the football world.
Saturday, White will be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. With all due respect to Troy Aikman, Harry Carson, John Madden, Warren Moon, and Rayfield Wright, all eyes in Canton will be on White's widow, Sara, who is charged with the responsibility of giving the speech that White was born to give. As Wright Thompson writes on ESPN.com, Sara White has had great troubles trying to write this speech, more than any other speech she has given since Reggie's passing.
Thompson does make one glaring error. He says that once this speech is over, people will begin to forget Reggie White, more and more every day. That might be true in some parts of the NFL world, but it's most likely not true in Green Bay, Wisconsin, where Reggie's legacy and impact will live on for generations and generations. He's a legend in this state, as he should be, and he will always be a presence at Lambeau Field.
(I'm also looking forward to John Madden's induction speech. If you have ESPN Insider, you can download an interview with "John Madden" that was conducted on Mike and Mike Thursday morning by going to ESPNRadio.com. And if you've ever heard Frank Caliendo's impersonation of John Madden, you know it's worth your time to download this interview. Is it too late to tie Madden to the back of the Madden Cruiser and fly in Caliendo to give the speech on his behalf?)
Thursday, August 03, 2006
Randomization: 08/03/06
I know I picked them last...but how do you not root for Northwestern? In a sick twist of fate, the Wildcat players and coaches are left to deal with the sudden loss of head coach Randy Walker, who died of a heart attack in late June. Luckily for Northwestern, they have someone leading them who has handled an awkward situation with absolute grace. Ivan Maisel of ESPN.com has the latest in what will be a season-long series of gripping, emotional looks at new head coach Pat Fitzgerald and the work he has been doing trying to nurse his young players through this recovery, while also trying to recover himself.
Fitzgerald is only 31 years old, the youngest coach in Division I-A by a goodly margin, but when you read Maisel's piece, you get a sense that Fitzgerald is not only wise beyond his years, but that his youth may give him an advantage when it comes to connecting with this team and making sure he takes care of his players. He also knows what Walker was trying to teach his players and assistant coaches, and he is ready to continue with those lessons with his team:
OU needs a quarterback...for real this time. Anyone who read my Big 12 South preview knows that I really wasn't a huge fan of Oklahoma sophomore QB Rhett Bomar. It's not that I didn't think the kid had a chance to be a real good player, it's that I didn't think he was a real good player yet.
That said, it seems that some have overestimated Bomar's value because of the promise he showed at times last year. Mark Schalabach writes that OU's title hopes are dead, though he did nail at least one part of this story:
I'll agree with those who say that OU's road to the BCS just got a bit bumpier. But I don't agree that the loss of Bomar is a death knell for the team's title hopes. The running game, offensive line, and defense are all championship-caliber.
Crime spree! The (alleged) exploits of San Jose State football player Ellid T. Jones III have been well-publicized, and Every Day Should Be Saturday has been forced to pretty much end the chase for the coveted Fulmer Cup, but it's absolutely worth mentioning here that Jones, expected to compete for a starting job on defense at SJSU, has found himself in more than a little bit of hot water:
The beginning of the end for open enrollment? If it is, good riddance. The Minnesota State High School League finally came to its senses, and they've employed a 40-member panel to look into open enrollment in high schools across the state. The media pressure and fan/parent backlash has evidently led them to this move, though as the Star Tribune notes, a move by the Wisconsin Interscholastic Athletic Association may have been the actual impetus for the MSHSL's decision to look further into the issue.
The WIAA instituted a new transfer rule that go into effect in 2007-2008. Under the new rule, any athlete who has completed his/her sophomore year cannot transfer from one high school to another without sitting out one calendar year of athletic competition, unless the student's family moves from one district to the other.
I'm all for parents finding a good academic fit for their kids. But open enrollment, as it stands in Minnesota, is an open invitation for parents and their kids to abuse the system. They can transfer away from a coach they don't get along with. They can transfer away from a program that employs system that they feel don't fit the child's talents. They can transfer away from a smaller program that may struggle to gain notoriety, in favor of a large school or a big-time program where they feel the kid will be noticed more. Some 10,000 kids grades 9-12 are believed to have transferred in Minnesota in each of the past three years.
People whine about programs recruiting these kids, which is absolutely against the current rules. While I have always believed this is going on, I don't think that the big-time programs in the state have to recruit kids. The program's success does the recruiting for them. If you curtail open enrollment, you turn recruiting into more of a non-issue as a result. And outside of making a move to slow down open enrollment, the MSHSL really doesn't have a prayer of stopping recruiting, because unless a coach or parent is really stupid, it's impossible to catch recruiters.
Will there still be parents who move to a different area so their kid can attend a different school and avoid transfer penalties? Sure. But how many families are so serious about their child's athletic career that they would incur the expense of moving to a different city/neighborhood for that reason?
Fitzgerald is only 31 years old, the youngest coach in Division I-A by a goodly margin, but when you read Maisel's piece, you get a sense that Fitzgerald is not only wise beyond his years, but that his youth may give him an advantage when it comes to connecting with this team and making sure he takes care of his players. He also knows what Walker was trying to teach his players and assistant coaches, and he is ready to continue with those lessons with his team:
"He just asked everybody to push themselves to be their best and strive for excellence," Fitzgerald said. "He would always say, 'I don't get it when people won't try to be that way. I don't understand that.' It's a very moral way to live your life. He was demanding and intolerant of us as coaches and of our players. He'd see things in you that you could never imagine that you could do. He would set a course and push you to be the best you could possibly be."Obviously, it would have been hard to argue a decision by Northwestern AD Mark Murphy to look outside the program for a veteran coach, but he understood that the best course for this program was to promote from within. And Fitzgerald, youth aside, was the absolutely perfect choice.
OU needs a quarterback...for real this time. Anyone who read my Big 12 South preview knows that I really wasn't a huge fan of Oklahoma sophomore QB Rhett Bomar. It's not that I didn't think the kid had a chance to be a real good player, it's that I didn't think he was a real good player yet.
That said, it seems that some have overestimated Bomar's value because of the promise he showed at times last year. Mark Schalabach writes that OU's title hopes are dead, though he did nail at least one part of this story:
By booting his quarterback, Stoops might have jeopardized another season. At least he didn't sacrifice his integrity, which is something Barry Switzer might have done.Bingo. It's going to be tough for Stoops to win here, because he's now forced to groom a new quarterback while also nurturing Oklahoma's national title hopes through an early-season test at Oregon before the October showdown with Texas.
I'll agree with those who say that OU's road to the BCS just got a bit bumpier. But I don't agree that the loss of Bomar is a death knell for the team's title hopes. The running game, offensive line, and defense are all championship-caliber.
Crime spree! The (alleged) exploits of San Jose State football player Ellid T. Jones III have been well-publicized, and Every Day Should Be Saturday has been forced to pretty much end the chase for the coveted Fulmer Cup, but it's absolutely worth mentioning here that Jones, expected to compete for a starting job on defense at SJSU, has found himself in more than a little bit of hot water:
Jones, 20, was charged Thursday with robbery, false imprisonment and other crimes for allegedly getting potential buyers to meet him and then zapping them with a Taser or threatening them with a gun in four June stickups in San Jose.Congratulations to San Jose State. I'm sure that Jones will end up being the Most Valuable Criminal of this year's Fulmer Cup chase, since he pretty-much singlehandedly won it for his institution.
The beginning of the end for open enrollment? If it is, good riddance. The Minnesota State High School League finally came to its senses, and they've employed a 40-member panel to look into open enrollment in high schools across the state. The media pressure and fan/parent backlash has evidently led them to this move, though as the Star Tribune notes, a move by the Wisconsin Interscholastic Athletic Association may have been the actual impetus for the MSHSL's decision to look further into the issue.
The WIAA instituted a new transfer rule that go into effect in 2007-2008. Under the new rule, any athlete who has completed his/her sophomore year cannot transfer from one high school to another without sitting out one calendar year of athletic competition, unless the student's family moves from one district to the other.
I'm all for parents finding a good academic fit for their kids. But open enrollment, as it stands in Minnesota, is an open invitation for parents and their kids to abuse the system. They can transfer away from a coach they don't get along with. They can transfer away from a program that employs system that they feel don't fit the child's talents. They can transfer away from a smaller program that may struggle to gain notoriety, in favor of a large school or a big-time program where they feel the kid will be noticed more. Some 10,000 kids grades 9-12 are believed to have transferred in Minnesota in each of the past three years.
People whine about programs recruiting these kids, which is absolutely against the current rules. While I have always believed this is going on, I don't think that the big-time programs in the state have to recruit kids. The program's success does the recruiting for them. If you curtail open enrollment, you turn recruiting into more of a non-issue as a result. And outside of making a move to slow down open enrollment, the MSHSL really doesn't have a prayer of stopping recruiting, because unless a coach or parent is really stupid, it's impossible to catch recruiters.
Will there still be parents who move to a different area so their kid can attend a different school and avoid transfer penalties? Sure. But how many families are so serious about their child's athletic career that they would incur the expense of moving to a different city/neighborhood for that reason?
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Randomization: 08/02/06
Mauer becomes Cover Boy. I don't know that I'd make a big deal out of this if I were the Twins, but Joe Mauer is on the cover of next week's Sports Illustrated. Good for him, but I'd keep him away from black cats, ladders, and mirrors for a little while.
What I found interesting was the note in the Star Tribune article linked above. Apparently, there have now been 22 instances where a Minnesota Twin has appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated, compared with 18 Minnesota Vikings. I don't know why I find this interesting, but I do.
By the way, Mauer is hitting .367 entering play today. Don't blame me if that average goes into a nosedive in the next couple weeks. Just remember that I warned you about the possibility.
Now, Twins fans might have a real reason to panic. Seems that Francisco Liriano is going to miss his start Wednesday afternoon because of "inflammation in his elbow". The Twins are saying it's a muscle issue, and Liriano would likely be okay to pitch. And I just hope they're not lying about it in a similar fashion to how the Brewers are always lying about injuries.
If the truth is that Liriano's issue is with the forearm muscle, then he will be fine, and he should be able to make his next start without a problem. The Star Tribune says an MRI showed no damage to Liriano's elbow.
I hope this is all accurate. If it isn't, the Twins are in serious trouble.
Someone check his hotel room. I mentioned on Friday that our Blog Buddy Brian Cook, the man behind the MGoBlog and the BlogPoll, was playing in the landmine-laden WSOP Main Event.
What is a "landmine" in poker? Well, I'm using it to describe the pleothora of people playing in the Main Event even though they have no earthly idea how to play poker.
Poor Brian ran into two landmines yesterday, while playing at a table with well-respected pro Annie Duke.
As chronicled on the the Poker News website, Cook ended up busting out on a couple of bad beats.
First off, someone better go to Brian's hotel room. I half-expect him to be passed out in a sea of ripped-up sevens that came out of the decks of cards he bought at the souvenir shop. It's bad enough when you get crippled by a bad beat (and if you watched what happened to 2005 Main Event champ Joseph Hachem in the Bally's WSOP Circuit Event that was televised on ESPN last night, you know what I mean about getting "crippled by a bad beat").
It's another to have bad beats on back-to-back hands, with the knowledge that the moron who called your pre-flop raise when all he had was 10-7 is probably still playing in the tournament.
(And don't get me wrong. That's what that guy is. A moron. It's one thing to bluff at a pot pre-flop by raising with, say, 10-7. A player well-known for being tight at the table can probably pull that off, and a very aggressive player might be able to get away with it. It's another to call a raise when you have nothing. That guy, if he's still alive in the tournament, should be beaten repeatedly over the head with Norman Chad's hairpiece.)
What I found interesting was the note in the Star Tribune article linked above. Apparently, there have now been 22 instances where a Minnesota Twin has appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated, compared with 18 Minnesota Vikings. I don't know why I find this interesting, but I do.
By the way, Mauer is hitting .367 entering play today. Don't blame me if that average goes into a nosedive in the next couple weeks. Just remember that I warned you about the possibility.
Now, Twins fans might have a real reason to panic. Seems that Francisco Liriano is going to miss his start Wednesday afternoon because of "inflammation in his elbow". The Twins are saying it's a muscle issue, and Liriano would likely be okay to pitch. And I just hope they're not lying about it in a similar fashion to how the Brewers are always lying about injuries.
If the truth is that Liriano's issue is with the forearm muscle, then he will be fine, and he should be able to make his next start without a problem. The Star Tribune says an MRI showed no damage to Liriano's elbow.
I hope this is all accurate. If it isn't, the Twins are in serious trouble.
Someone check his hotel room. I mentioned on Friday that our Blog Buddy Brian Cook, the man behind the MGoBlog and the BlogPoll, was playing in the landmine-laden WSOP Main Event.
What is a "landmine" in poker? Well, I'm using it to describe the pleothora of people playing in the Main Event even though they have no earthly idea how to play poker.
Poor Brian ran into two landmines yesterday, while playing at a table with well-respected pro Annie Duke.
As chronicled on the the Poker News website, Cook ended up busting out on a couple of bad beats.
Cook, who had earlier admitted to being "a little intimidated" by Duke when his own smallish starting stack grew large enough to allow for more creative play, lost his last $25,000 when his pocket aces were cracked by another player who called his pre-flop raise with 10-7, then put Cook all-in after a K-7-7 flop. This came only moments after Cook had lost a sizeable hand with pocket kings in a similar manner...And as Duke offered, in the wake of Cook's departure, "He did nothing wrong."Ouch.
First off, someone better go to Brian's hotel room. I half-expect him to be passed out in a sea of ripped-up sevens that came out of the decks of cards he bought at the souvenir shop. It's bad enough when you get crippled by a bad beat (and if you watched what happened to 2005 Main Event champ Joseph Hachem in the Bally's WSOP Circuit Event that was televised on ESPN last night, you know what I mean about getting "crippled by a bad beat").
It's another to have bad beats on back-to-back hands, with the knowledge that the moron who called your pre-flop raise when all he had was 10-7 is probably still playing in the tournament.
(And don't get me wrong. That's what that guy is. A moron. It's one thing to bluff at a pot pre-flop by raising with, say, 10-7. A player well-known for being tight at the table can probably pull that off, and a very aggressive player might be able to get away with it. It's another to call a raise when you have nothing. That guy, if he's still alive in the tournament, should be beaten repeatedly over the head with Norman Chad's hairpiece.)
Tuesday, August 01, 2006
Is Brett Favre crazy, or perhaps forgetful?
By now, most have you have probably had a chance to read about Brett Favre's press conference yesterday, where he proclaimed the following and stunned the assembled reporters:
He said that.
It's been reported by about 275 different sources and counting.
The assumption working its way around the world now is that Favre is either 1) crazy, or 2) trying to make everyone feel good so they'll play better. Has anyone ever considered the possibility that Favre was serious? I know. Blasphemous thought. How could this ragtag group possibly be more talented than, say, the 1996 team that, you know, WON THE SUPER BOWL?
(In Favre's defense, and to be totally fair, he did say that this year's team is also "one of the most unproven", but that came after his bomb about it being the most talented, so most reporters aren't going to remember that part.)
Well, I'm all about being accurate. So before I make fun of Brett for being ridiculous, let's take a look at the two teams and figure out if Brett might have a point. Remember, this is based on talent. For the sake of giving the current version of Favre the benefit of the doubt, I'm going to cut him some slack in some areas as we look at these teams.
For the sake of argument, I have decided to use what I believe was the starting lineup for the Packers' Week One win over Tampa Bay in 1996, combined with players who came in over the course of the season and made an impact. I will use the best possible starting lineup for the 2006 Packers, based on the rosters as we have them right now. Certain positions will be listed deeper than starters, only because depth is important, but I don't feel like getting too fussy about the depth chart of the 1996 team. Much of that will be gleaned off available game notes from that team.
Quarterback
1996--> Brett Favre, Jim McMahon
2006--> Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers
Advantage: 1996. Favre was younger and more athletic then. Today's Favre just isn't that good at making plays on the run, and he has to learn a new offense to boot. He certainly could be good, but anything that brings Favre even close to his 1996 form would have to be considered a miracle.
Running back
1996--> Edgar Bennett, Dorsey Levens, Travis Jervey
2006--> Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, Samkon Gado
Advantage: 2006. I'm going to take a lot of heat for this, but Green has proven himself. Levens was a one-hit wonder who held out in 1998 and was never the same again. Bennett was nothing more than a good interior runner, and Jervey was a fumbling machine. The three combined for 13 total scores in 1996, which isn't nearly as impressive as I would have guessed.
Fullback
1996--> William Henderson
2006--> William Henderson
Advantage: 2006. What Henderson may have lost in footspeed, he's made up for with his blocking acumen. He's still as good a pure fullback as there is in the NFL. And he's also remained a decent weapon as a receiver.
Wide receiver
1996--> Robert Brooks, Antonio Freeman, Don Beebe, Andre Rison, Terry Mickens
2006--> Donald Driver, Rod Gardner, Robert Ferguson, Greg Jennings, Marc Boerigter
Advantage: 2006. Yes, I'm serious. This group is led by a Pro Bowler, and Gardner and/or Ferguson will have a huge year. Jennings is much more talented than Mickens was, and Boerigter, as a big target, fits perfectly into the system.
(NOTE: If Rison had actually started the season with the team, this would end differently. But he only played in five regular-season games.)
Tight end
1996--> Keith Jackson, Mark Chmura
2006--> Bubba Franks, Donald Lee
Advantage: 1996. This isn't even funny. Jackson was awesome, and Chmura was coming into his own. Franks and Lee don't come close.
Offensive tackle
1996--> Earl Dotson, Bruce Wilkerson, John Michels (?)
2006--> Chad Clifton, Mark Tauscher, Kevin Barry
Advantage: 2006. Dotson and Wilkerson were journeymen-types, while Clifton and Tauscher are both among the better tackles in the league.
Offensive guard
1996--> Aaron Taylor, Adam Timmerman, Lindsay Knapp (?)
2006--> Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz, Junius Coston
Advantage: 1996. As mediocre as Dotson and Wilkerson may have been, Taylor and Timmerman were both very, very good. The new starting guards fit the cut-blocking scheme well, but it's hard to imagine that they'll be really good right out of college.
Center
1996--> Frank Winters, Jeff Dellenbach
2006--> Scott Wells, Junius Coston
Advantage: 1996. Winters was a superior center. A tad dirty, but always willing to go the extra mile to block for his running backs or protect good friend Favre.
(Plus, the "Three Packerinos" FOX NFL Sunday ad was one of the funniest things any Packer player has ever appeared in.)
Defensive end
1996--> Reggie White, Sean Jones, Keith McKenzie, Gabe Wilkins
2006--> Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Aaron Kampman, ?
Advantage: 1996. Duh.
Defensive tackle
1996--> Gilbert Brown, Santana Dotson, Darius Holland
2006--> Ryan Pickett, Cullen Jenkins, Kenderick Allen, Colin Cole
Advantage: 1996. Also...duh. Brown was in his short prime, and Dotson was a quality pass-rushing tackle. And the overall strength of that 1996 defensive line is probably what did the most to carry that team to a championship. The Packers have the start to a good group in Pickett, but the others are either untested or unproven at this level.
Outside linebacker
1996--> Wayne Simmons, Brian Williams, George Koonce
2006--> A.J. Hawk, Ben Taylor, Nick Barnett (?), Brady Poppinga
Advantage: 2006. I'm very high on Hawk, and Barnett makes a great tandem with Hawk if the coaches move him outside. Poppinga could also be a huge part of this defense if he's recovered from knee surgery. Simmons was spotty, but played with attitude, and Williams was a great athlete.
Inside linebacker
1996--> Ron Cox, Bernardo Harris
2006--> Nick Barnett, Abdul Hodge
Advantage: 2006. Barnett is a proven talent, while Cox was just a journeyman. Hodge is an animal, and he will end up starting here eventually. It's nice to see some attitude in this group, and Hawk and Hodge both bring that.
Cornerback
1996--> Craig Newsome, Doug Evans, Tyrone Williams
2006--> Al Harris, Charles Woodson, Ahmad Carroll, Mike Hawkins
Advantage: 2006. Evans was good, but Newsome was injury-prone and only an okay player. Williams had great talent, but couldn't stay out of trouble and often played with poor technique. Harris and Woodson are both elite talents, and the coaches think either Carroll or Hawkins will emerge as a solid nickel back.
Safety
1996--> LeRoy Butler, Eugene Robinson, Mike Prior
2006--> Nick Collins, Marquand Manuel, Marviel Underwood
Advantage: 1996. Duh. Butler was great at making plays near or behind the line of scrimmage, and Robinson, pre-arrest, was as good a centerfielder as you could find. Prior played special teams and was also a factor in dime coverages, bringing great veteran savvy, like Robinson.
I think we all like Nick Collins, but his only similarity to Butler at this point is the number on his jersey. Manuel could be really good against the run, allowing Collins to play a Robinson-like centerfield.
Kicker
1996--> Chris Jacke
2006--> Billy Cundiff
Advantage: 1996. I just don't know enough about Cundiff to say anything nice. Jacke is forever a part of Packer lore for that overtime game-winner on the Monday night against San Francisco.
Punter
1996--> Craig Hentrich
2006--> Jon Ryan, B.J. Sander
Advantage: 1996. Ryan has a great leg, but we've yet to see him perform in a game. Sander sucks. Hentrich, meanwhile, was All-Pro caliber, and the position has suffered greatly since he left for Tennessee as a free agent.
Returner
1996--> Desmond Howard
2006--> ?
Advantage: 1996. It won't matter who returns kicks and punts this year. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to match the magic created by Howard in his only productive NFL season. The Packers' special teams group now doesn't even belong in a comparison with the 1996 team. Those guys covered kicks, blocked for their returner, and had tremendous depth because Ron Wolf drafted so well.
Overall
Out of 17 positions rated, the 1996 Packers have the advantage in ten, while the 2006 Packers take the advantage in seven positions. Not bad at all.
My conclusion is that Favre's comments aren't as far-fetched as many will assume them to be. People might think I'm crazy for even trying to compare a Super Bowl champion to a team that was 4-12 last season, but this isn't about results. It's about overall talent. The 1996 Packers got by with somewhat marginal talent at wide receiver because of Holmgren's play-calling acumen, Favre's playmaking ability, and the tight ends they had. They got by with marginal offensive tackles because the rest of the line was so good, and teams were afraid to pin their ears back against the Packers because they were so dog-gone good at screen and dump-off passes. So while they were really good on offense, they weren't the most talented Packer offense of the last 15 years.
And I think I can speak for all of Packer Nation when I say I hope Favre ends up being right about the 2006 team. On paper, it's just hard to argue that he is...right now.
"I really feel, as far as talent is concerned, this is the most talented team that I've been part of as a whole."Really.
He said that.
It's been reported by about 275 different sources and counting.
The assumption working its way around the world now is that Favre is either 1) crazy, or 2) trying to make everyone feel good so they'll play better. Has anyone ever considered the possibility that Favre was serious? I know. Blasphemous thought. How could this ragtag group possibly be more talented than, say, the 1996 team that, you know, WON THE SUPER BOWL?
(In Favre's defense, and to be totally fair, he did say that this year's team is also "one of the most unproven", but that came after his bomb about it being the most talented, so most reporters aren't going to remember that part.)
Well, I'm all about being accurate. So before I make fun of Brett for being ridiculous, let's take a look at the two teams and figure out if Brett might have a point. Remember, this is based on talent. For the sake of giving the current version of Favre the benefit of the doubt, I'm going to cut him some slack in some areas as we look at these teams.
For the sake of argument, I have decided to use what I believe was the starting lineup for the Packers' Week One win over Tampa Bay in 1996, combined with players who came in over the course of the season and made an impact. I will use the best possible starting lineup for the 2006 Packers, based on the rosters as we have them right now. Certain positions will be listed deeper than starters, only because depth is important, but I don't feel like getting too fussy about the depth chart of the 1996 team. Much of that will be gleaned off available game notes from that team.
Quarterback
1996--> Brett Favre, Jim McMahon
2006--> Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers
Advantage: 1996. Favre was younger and more athletic then. Today's Favre just isn't that good at making plays on the run, and he has to learn a new offense to boot. He certainly could be good, but anything that brings Favre even close to his 1996 form would have to be considered a miracle.
Running back
1996--> Edgar Bennett, Dorsey Levens, Travis Jervey
2006--> Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, Samkon Gado
Advantage: 2006. I'm going to take a lot of heat for this, but Green has proven himself. Levens was a one-hit wonder who held out in 1998 and was never the same again. Bennett was nothing more than a good interior runner, and Jervey was a fumbling machine. The three combined for 13 total scores in 1996, which isn't nearly as impressive as I would have guessed.
Fullback
1996--> William Henderson
2006--> William Henderson
Advantage: 2006. What Henderson may have lost in footspeed, he's made up for with his blocking acumen. He's still as good a pure fullback as there is in the NFL. And he's also remained a decent weapon as a receiver.
Wide receiver
1996--> Robert Brooks, Antonio Freeman, Don Beebe, Andre Rison, Terry Mickens
2006--> Donald Driver, Rod Gardner, Robert Ferguson, Greg Jennings, Marc Boerigter
Advantage: 2006. Yes, I'm serious. This group is led by a Pro Bowler, and Gardner and/or Ferguson will have a huge year. Jennings is much more talented than Mickens was, and Boerigter, as a big target, fits perfectly into the system.
(NOTE: If Rison had actually started the season with the team, this would end differently. But he only played in five regular-season games.)
Tight end
1996--> Keith Jackson, Mark Chmura
2006--> Bubba Franks, Donald Lee
Advantage: 1996. This isn't even funny. Jackson was awesome, and Chmura was coming into his own. Franks and Lee don't come close.
Offensive tackle
1996--> Earl Dotson, Bruce Wilkerson, John Michels (?)
2006--> Chad Clifton, Mark Tauscher, Kevin Barry
Advantage: 2006. Dotson and Wilkerson were journeymen-types, while Clifton and Tauscher are both among the better tackles in the league.
Offensive guard
1996--> Aaron Taylor, Adam Timmerman, Lindsay Knapp (?)
2006--> Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz, Junius Coston
Advantage: 1996. As mediocre as Dotson and Wilkerson may have been, Taylor and Timmerman were both very, very good. The new starting guards fit the cut-blocking scheme well, but it's hard to imagine that they'll be really good right out of college.
Center
1996--> Frank Winters, Jeff Dellenbach
2006--> Scott Wells, Junius Coston
Advantage: 1996. Winters was a superior center. A tad dirty, but always willing to go the extra mile to block for his running backs or protect good friend Favre.
(Plus, the "Three Packerinos" FOX NFL Sunday ad was one of the funniest things any Packer player has ever appeared in.)
Defensive end
1996--> Reggie White, Sean Jones, Keith McKenzie, Gabe Wilkins
2006--> Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Aaron Kampman, ?
Advantage: 1996. Duh.
Defensive tackle
1996--> Gilbert Brown, Santana Dotson, Darius Holland
2006--> Ryan Pickett, Cullen Jenkins, Kenderick Allen, Colin Cole
Advantage: 1996. Also...duh. Brown was in his short prime, and Dotson was a quality pass-rushing tackle. And the overall strength of that 1996 defensive line is probably what did the most to carry that team to a championship. The Packers have the start to a good group in Pickett, but the others are either untested or unproven at this level.
Outside linebacker
1996--> Wayne Simmons, Brian Williams, George Koonce
2006--> A.J. Hawk, Ben Taylor, Nick Barnett (?), Brady Poppinga
Advantage: 2006. I'm very high on Hawk, and Barnett makes a great tandem with Hawk if the coaches move him outside. Poppinga could also be a huge part of this defense if he's recovered from knee surgery. Simmons was spotty, but played with attitude, and Williams was a great athlete.
Inside linebacker
1996--> Ron Cox, Bernardo Harris
2006--> Nick Barnett, Abdul Hodge
Advantage: 2006. Barnett is a proven talent, while Cox was just a journeyman. Hodge is an animal, and he will end up starting here eventually. It's nice to see some attitude in this group, and Hawk and Hodge both bring that.
Cornerback
1996--> Craig Newsome, Doug Evans, Tyrone Williams
2006--> Al Harris, Charles Woodson, Ahmad Carroll, Mike Hawkins
Advantage: 2006. Evans was good, but Newsome was injury-prone and only an okay player. Williams had great talent, but couldn't stay out of trouble and often played with poor technique. Harris and Woodson are both elite talents, and the coaches think either Carroll or Hawkins will emerge as a solid nickel back.
Safety
1996--> LeRoy Butler, Eugene Robinson, Mike Prior
2006--> Nick Collins, Marquand Manuel, Marviel Underwood
Advantage: 1996. Duh. Butler was great at making plays near or behind the line of scrimmage, and Robinson, pre-arrest, was as good a centerfielder as you could find. Prior played special teams and was also a factor in dime coverages, bringing great veteran savvy, like Robinson.
I think we all like Nick Collins, but his only similarity to Butler at this point is the number on his jersey. Manuel could be really good against the run, allowing Collins to play a Robinson-like centerfield.
Kicker
1996--> Chris Jacke
2006--> Billy Cundiff
Advantage: 1996. I just don't know enough about Cundiff to say anything nice. Jacke is forever a part of Packer lore for that overtime game-winner on the Monday night against San Francisco.
Punter
1996--> Craig Hentrich
2006--> Jon Ryan, B.J. Sander
Advantage: 1996. Ryan has a great leg, but we've yet to see him perform in a game. Sander sucks. Hentrich, meanwhile, was All-Pro caliber, and the position has suffered greatly since he left for Tennessee as a free agent.
Returner
1996--> Desmond Howard
2006--> ?
Advantage: 1996. It won't matter who returns kicks and punts this year. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to match the magic created by Howard in his only productive NFL season. The Packers' special teams group now doesn't even belong in a comparison with the 1996 team. Those guys covered kicks, blocked for their returner, and had tremendous depth because Ron Wolf drafted so well.
Overall
Out of 17 positions rated, the 1996 Packers have the advantage in ten, while the 2006 Packers take the advantage in seven positions. Not bad at all.
My conclusion is that Favre's comments aren't as far-fetched as many will assume them to be. People might think I'm crazy for even trying to compare a Super Bowl champion to a team that was 4-12 last season, but this isn't about results. It's about overall talent. The 1996 Packers got by with somewhat marginal talent at wide receiver because of Holmgren's play-calling acumen, Favre's playmaking ability, and the tight ends they had. They got by with marginal offensive tackles because the rest of the line was so good, and teams were afraid to pin their ears back against the Packers because they were so dog-gone good at screen and dump-off passes. So while they were really good on offense, they weren't the most talented Packer offense of the last 15 years.
And I think I can speak for all of Packer Nation when I say I hope Favre ends up being right about the 2006 team. On paper, it's just hard to argue that he is...right now.
Randomization: 08/01/06
Some get it, some don't. I'll give Jim Bowden, GM of the Washington Nationals, credit for one thing.
He didn't settle. He set his price for Alfonso Soriano, and even though the Nationals are out of any realistic playoff running and probably not going to be able to re-sign Soriano when he goes free agent this offseason, Bowden didn't waver on his price. He wasn't going to trade Soriano unless he got the return into his farm system that he felt he needed to get.
You might think Bowden is an idiot for not moving Soriano, and to an extent, I agree. He (Soriano) isn't going to lift this terrible team into the playoff race, and there isn't more than a 10 to 15 percent chance that he's going to re-sign with the Nationals this fall/winter. So why didn't Bowden move Soriano and get what he could get in return?
Because he's not Dave Littlefield.
Littlefield, the GM of the Pirates, is apparently more interested in making Pittsburgh into the worst organization in baseball than he is in actually winning baseball games.
Littlefield dealt promising pitcher Oliver Perez to the Mets for Xavier Nady. That's okay, really, because Perez wasn't ever going to fulfill his potential until someone grabbed him by the ear and told him to pitch the right way. Perez's mechanics are so messed up that he's no longer able to throw with any consistenly good velocity. In all honesty, that's a pretty good deal for Pittsburgh, because Nady likely represents more return than they should have gotten for Perez (even with veteran reliever Roberto Hernandez thrown in). That said, Nady is a utility player, and the Pirates have already had plenty of utility players that they've tried to turn into everyday players. So even though this trade isn't TERRIBLE, they still dealt a 24-year-old left-handed pitcher for a utility player. It has the potential to turn out very poorly for Littlefield.
However, it's the other deals that Pittsburgh made that should have Pirate fans completely infuriated. Frankly, all of baseball should be infuriated.
Littlefield sent first baseman Sean Casey to Detroit for a minor-league relief pitcher. Casey is overvalued, yes, because he doesn't have much power. But to only get a junk relief pitcher for Casey is inexcusable. Detroit won't miss the guy, Brian Rogers, that they gave up. With all the young pitching the Tigers have, Rogers might have represented a blip on the proverbial radar screen.
Bucs Dugout is livid. Should be, too.
OUTGOING
1B/OF Craig Wilson
SP Kip Wells
1B Sean Casey
Minor league SP Oliver Perez
RP Roberto Hernandez
INCOMING
RP Shawn Chacon
Minor league RP Jesse Chavez
Minor league RP Brian Rogers
1B/OF Xavier Nady
Ouch.
(Bucs Dugout is mad about the Perez trade. I see that side, but it's not even the second-worst trade that Littlefield pulled yesterday.)
So what's the plan in Pittsburgh? Because the result appears to be leaning toward "Last place for the forseeable future".
(Philly GM Pat Gillick gets a bit of a pass here, because he doesn't have a history of doing deals such as "Abreu and Lidle for random minor-league crap". He felt he had to get out of Abreu's contract, and he decided it was worth a minimal return to do that.)
Twins don't make a deal. I'm not sure I fully agree with those who believe the Twins should have pulled the trigger. I think they have a chance to win this year, but I'm not convinced that it was worth dealing both top pitching prospects (Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey), as was required by Washington to make the deal, according to pre-deadline rumors.
The Twins have at least one major hole in the rotation for 2007, as Brad Radke is expected to retire. You could argue that they have two or three, given the struggles of fourth starter Carlos Silva and fifth starter Scott Baker. Giving up both Garza and Slowey would be a bad move, given the Twins'inability unwillingness to spend extra money on the payroll.
Soriano could help them, but the Twins are hitting the ball pretty well right now, and it probably isn't worth mortgaging the future of the starting rotation to get an extra bat at this point. Like Bowden, who deserves credit for sticking to the price he set, Twins GM Terry Ryan deserves credit for not giving in to the asking price, which he felt was too steep.
Landis the cheater. And there goes the image of Floyd Landis. C-ya.
The New York Times reported Monday that the test on Landis during the Tour de France showed levels of "synthetic" testosterone in his system.
In other words, the elevated levels of testosterone on Landis' system wasn't "natural", as he ridiculously claimed.
Now, we await the test of Landis' second sample, a sample which will either clear Landis or convict him. That's expected on Saturday.
I really don't want to pass judgment, but I'd feel a lot better about not passing judgment if Landis had never spoken. Instead of admitting his guilt, he uttered the familiar lines about not knowingly taking anything banned, and he added a new twist by saying that his body's level of testosterone is naturally high.
His doctor was quoted in the Times as saying, among other things, that the samples may have been contaminated, and that he believes the test could have been inaccurate.
If the second result comes back, Landis is screwed, and here's hoping he doesn't continue to deny doing something he knows he's not supposed to do.
"I did it, and they caught me" could go a long way in today's world. If only someone would actually say it without any prodding.
He didn't settle. He set his price for Alfonso Soriano, and even though the Nationals are out of any realistic playoff running and probably not going to be able to re-sign Soriano when he goes free agent this offseason, Bowden didn't waver on his price. He wasn't going to trade Soriano unless he got the return into his farm system that he felt he needed to get.
You might think Bowden is an idiot for not moving Soriano, and to an extent, I agree. He (Soriano) isn't going to lift this terrible team into the playoff race, and there isn't more than a 10 to 15 percent chance that he's going to re-sign with the Nationals this fall/winter. So why didn't Bowden move Soriano and get what he could get in return?
Because he's not Dave Littlefield.
Littlefield, the GM of the Pirates, is apparently more interested in making Pittsburgh into the worst organization in baseball than he is in actually winning baseball games.
Littlefield dealt promising pitcher Oliver Perez to the Mets for Xavier Nady. That's okay, really, because Perez wasn't ever going to fulfill his potential until someone grabbed him by the ear and told him to pitch the right way. Perez's mechanics are so messed up that he's no longer able to throw with any consistenly good velocity. In all honesty, that's a pretty good deal for Pittsburgh, because Nady likely represents more return than they should have gotten for Perez (even with veteran reliever Roberto Hernandez thrown in). That said, Nady is a utility player, and the Pirates have already had plenty of utility players that they've tried to turn into everyday players. So even though this trade isn't TERRIBLE, they still dealt a 24-year-old left-handed pitcher for a utility player. It has the potential to turn out very poorly for Littlefield.
However, it's the other deals that Pittsburgh made that should have Pirate fans completely infuriated. Frankly, all of baseball should be infuriated.
Littlefield sent first baseman Sean Casey to Detroit for a minor-league relief pitcher. Casey is overvalued, yes, because he doesn't have much power. But to only get a junk relief pitcher for Casey is inexcusable. Detroit won't miss the guy, Brian Rogers, that they gave up. With all the young pitching the Tigers have, Rogers might have represented a blip on the proverbial radar screen.
Bucs Dugout is livid. Should be, too.
OUTGOING
1B/OF Craig Wilson
SP Kip Wells
1B Sean Casey
Minor league SP Oliver Perez
RP Roberto Hernandez
INCOMING
RP Shawn Chacon
Minor league RP Jesse Chavez
Minor league RP Brian Rogers
1B/OF Xavier Nady
Ouch.
(Bucs Dugout is mad about the Perez trade. I see that side, but it's not even the second-worst trade that Littlefield pulled yesterday.)
So what's the plan in Pittsburgh? Because the result appears to be leaning toward "Last place for the forseeable future".
(Philly GM Pat Gillick gets a bit of a pass here, because he doesn't have a history of doing deals such as "Abreu and Lidle for random minor-league crap". He felt he had to get out of Abreu's contract, and he decided it was worth a minimal return to do that.)
Twins don't make a deal. I'm not sure I fully agree with those who believe the Twins should have pulled the trigger. I think they have a chance to win this year, but I'm not convinced that it was worth dealing both top pitching prospects (Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey), as was required by Washington to make the deal, according to pre-deadline rumors.
The Twins have at least one major hole in the rotation for 2007, as Brad Radke is expected to retire. You could argue that they have two or three, given the struggles of fourth starter Carlos Silva and fifth starter Scott Baker. Giving up both Garza and Slowey would be a bad move, given the Twins'
Soriano could help them, but the Twins are hitting the ball pretty well right now, and it probably isn't worth mortgaging the future of the starting rotation to get an extra bat at this point. Like Bowden, who deserves credit for sticking to the price he set, Twins GM Terry Ryan deserves credit for not giving in to the asking price, which he felt was too steep.
Landis the cheater. And there goes the image of Floyd Landis. C-ya.
The New York Times reported Monday that the test on Landis during the Tour de France showed levels of "synthetic" testosterone in his system.
In other words, the elevated levels of testosterone on Landis' system wasn't "natural", as he ridiculously claimed.
Now, we await the test of Landis' second sample, a sample which will either clear Landis or convict him. That's expected on Saturday.
I really don't want to pass judgment, but I'd feel a lot better about not passing judgment if Landis had never spoken. Instead of admitting his guilt, he uttered the familiar lines about not knowingly taking anything banned, and he added a new twist by saying that his body's level of testosterone is naturally high.
His doctor was quoted in the Times as saying, among other things, that the samples may have been contaminated, and that he believes the test could have been inaccurate.
If the second result comes back, Landis is screwed, and here's hoping he doesn't continue to deny doing something he knows he's not supposed to do.
"I did it, and they caught me" could go a long way in today's world. If only someone would actually say it without any prodding.
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