Penn State Changes Everything

College hockey is going to get started soon. With just 58 teams, fans should typically consider themselves lucky that there are 16 teams allowed into the national tournament at the end of the season. That's quite a low ratio of participating schools to tournament teams.

The sport has backed itself into a corner in a way. There are no smaller conferences for teams to join when they first become Division I programs. There is no room for newcomers in most of the leagues. And why would a powerful league like the WCHA want a Division I newcomer, likely to be at least a short-term whipping boy?

Over the weekend, our friends at INCH reported that Penn State was set to join the ranks of Division I hockey institutions, with an announcement possible this week.

It's an announcement that will be heard around the hockey world, as the sport has not seen much expansion since the early days of College Hockey America. It shows that there is indeed the opportunity for growth within the game, and it proves that big-time institutions like Penn State are indeed interested in a sport like hockey, which is relatively expensive and can be a big money-bleeder if not handled properly.

One has to wonder what has already been determined behind the scenes. It's not likely that mighty Penn State is starting a varsity hockey program so it can be an independent, or play in a league like Atlantic Hockey.

No, there's a big-boy ambition here, and the resources exist to carry that ambition out.

Where will they go? Well, the obvious answer seems to be the Big Ten. Penn State's teams are in the Big Ten conference, but the Big Ten does not yet sanction a hockey league. There are only five Big Ten members with active hockey programs, and six teams are required for a league to gain an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament for its champion.

Penn State would be the sixth. So would Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin jump at the chance?

I don't see why not. None of them are reliant on their current league for survival, especially Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. They are big-time hockey programs that could thrive in any league. Michigan State has a lot of tradition, and Ohio State -- while not the powerhouse it should be -- is not going to stay in the CCHA out of blind loyalty.

The Big Ten is a cash cow, thanks to a wonderful television network that makes a ton of money for the league and its member schools. That network is set up to be the home of Big Ten hockey, should the league get started. That could happen as soon as 2014, as it's not expected leagues will release members before then because of scheduling commitments.

However, the Big Ten can't do this alone. With only six members, teams will only be able to bank on 20 conference games per season. That leaves between 12 and 14 non-conference games that must be arranged. In order for the Big Ten to have a chance, I would expect them to reach scheduling agreements with at least two of the other Division I leagues. That may require them to work hand with leagues they've raided to get teams -- the WCHA and the CCHA. Because of the power the Big Ten teams are likely to have nationally (even with Minnesota down right now, Michigan and Wisconsin are NCAA regulars, and Michigan State is back on the rise), no league will turn down a chance to get some non-conference dates with Big Ten teams.

That said, the Big Ten would be smart not to burn bridges along the way to making their hockey conference a reality at last.

If/When the Big Ten finally forms a hockey league, we'll get some answers to these questions. Until then, it's largely pure speculation.

After all, wouldn't it be funny if Penn State just joined Hockey East and left everyone alone?

More UMD Football Honors

Another week, another honor for the UMD football team.

Actually, rumor has it the NSIC wanted to give an award to a UMD player last week, but the membership wasn't happy with the prospects of rewarding a player who didn't actually play in a game that week.

Alas, the Bulldogs are back to dominating the league's weekly honors after a 62-13 thrashing of Upper Iowa.

Senior running back Isaac Odim and junior wide receiver/return specialist D.J. Winfield have both been bestowed with Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference Player of the Week honors for their spirited performances in the University of Minnesota Duluth's 62-13 victory at Upper Iowa University.

Odim, a two-time All-American from Rochester, Minn., claimed the league's Offensive Player of the Week award by rushing for 163 yards and five touchdowns (one score shy of the Bulldog single-game record) on just 15 carries with all but one of those yards coming in the first half. He scored on runs of 42, 24, 13, eight and four yards en route to surpassing the 100-yard run barrier for the 23rd time in 30 lifetime games with the Bulldogs.

Winfield, who like Odim has been chosen to the All-NSIC first team in each of the past two seasons, brought back a second-quarter kickoff 85 yards for a touchdown and concluded the day with three returns for 163 yards. The Mountain Iron, Minn., product also added another 15 yards on three punt returns while landing the NSIC's Special Teams Player of the Week citation. In addition, Winfield caught three passes for 126 yards, including an 86-yard scoring strike from sophomore quarterback Chase Vogler, and, in the process, became the fourth Bulldog to ever accumulate more than 2,000 receiving yards in a career.

• • •

For the second straight week, the University of Minnesota Duluth finds itself occupying the No. 2 spot in the American Football Coaches Association Division II poll and this Saturday night will host another club which cracked the Top 20 in Wayne State College.

The Bulldogs, who are fresh off a 62-13 thrashing of Upper Iowa University, and the No. 18 Wildcats, a 68-6 victor over the University of Minnesota Crookston last Saturday, are both off to 2-0 overall starts heading into the Sept. 18 Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference showdown at James S. Malosky Stadium. UMD is a perfect 9-0 lifetime against Wayne State, but the two clubs have not squared off since the 2003 season.

Grand Valley State University remained the AFCA II poll's No. 1 choice for the second week in a row, picking up 23 of a possible 26 first-place votes with others going to UMD (one) and the University of North Alabama (two).

Grand Valley got lucky Saturday, scoring in the final seconds to beat Hillsdale. But lucky is still going to count as a win, so the Lakers maintain the top spot in the rankings. UMD's strength of schedule should get a boost from playing Wayne State, Winona State, and Minnesota State this season, so there's still a good shot UMD will end up seeded ahead of Grand Valley State come playoff time.

But we're a long way away from that.

The Wayne State game should be fun. WSC wants to prove they're a contender, and they already have an impressive road win over Nebraska-Kearney. Now they get a chance to really show they belong by taking down the big dog of the NSIC.

We invite you to Buffalo Wild Wings in Duluth Friday for our Coach's Show, which will be broadcast on The Fan 1490 at noon.

Big Games Highlight College Football Weekend

After a bit of a slow go through the first week of the season -- slow especially if you're a fan of Kansas and Mississippi -- the college football schedule is quite impressive in Week 2.

There is likely not going to be an instant classic in the bunch for a number of reasons, but there are big names playing against each other, and that should count for something.

The best chance -- I think -- for a great game in the bunch will be in Columbus, where Miami visits Ohio State. The U has come a long way in the last couple years, and they appear ready to reclaim their spot as a marquee "franchise" in college football. The Hurricanes had a layup in Week 1, as did Ohio State, so we can't look too hard at those games.

Instead, look at the talent. Miami lines up with the athletic Jacory Harris at quarterback. He's not the biggest run threat, but he can move around, and he has a live arm. I like their receivers, led by Leonard Hankerson and Travis Benjamin, and Graig Cooper should have a big say in this game's outcome with his running ability.

Of course, Miami has their hands full on defense. Terrelle Pryor is Ohio State's starting quarterback, and he's not just a thrower. He might be the best running quarterback in the nation, even if you count option quarterbacks like Navy's Ricky Dobbs. Pryor led the Buckeyes in rushing last year, beating out back Brandon Saine. He is gaining confidence as a passer, even if there are still games where he doesn't look like he's all there yet.

Linebackers Colin McCarthy and Sean Spence of Miami will have their hands full with tOSU's strong backfield tandem.

This should be a fun game. These are teams that can push the pace, even if they primarily run the ball. They will spread the field and attack, and both teams sport confident, hard-hitting defenses.

I have said all along that I really like what I saw from Pryor in the Rose Bowl last year. It was the kind of game that screamed of being a "leap" game for him, the kind of game that makes him the star player we have all been waiting for him to become.

The problem with that thought is that we've seen games like this from him before, so he still has to prove he can be a consistently productive quarterback for Ohio State to beat a good team like Miami, even when the game is at home.

I'll take the home team, largely because I think it's time for Pryor to turn the corner, and Ohio State has a bit more talent and balance overall.

The pick: Ohio State

The other game I'm really looking forward to is Florida State at Oklahoma. The Seminoles have a high-flying passing game, and the Sooners have a problem. With all due respect to Utah State, the Sooners' secondary was abused last week by ... Utah State. I really like USU's quarterback and receivers, but they're just not good enough to be running up and down the field on Oklahoma without there being an apparent problem with Oklahoma.

The Sooners can move the ball. DeMarco Murray is great, and Landry Jones will come into his own this season. Meanwhile, Christian Ponder might be another overrated Florida State quarterback, but he's talented enough -- with good receivers -- for FSU to go into Norman and give the Sooners a scare. They might just be good enough to do more than that, and I'll call for the upset.

Simply put, I think Florida State has more balance and more experience than the Sooners, and they will play better defense when it matters most.

The pick: Florida State

Other games (home team in CAPS):

Michigan State over FLORIDA ATLANTIC
(Note: This game is in freaking Detroit. And Florida Atlantic is the home team. What a joke. It's simply a grab for money and attendance figures by FAU, and their supporters should be completely pissed about it.)
PURDUE over Western Illinois
NORTHWESTERN over Illinois State
Georgia over SOUTH CAROLINA
MINNESOTA over South Dakota
WISCONSIN over San Jose State
IOWA over Iowa State
Michigan over NOTRE DAME
AIR FORCE over Brigham Young
Oregon over TENNESSEE
ALABAMA over Penn State
ILLINOIS over Southern Illinois
Stanford over UCLA

Last week: 16-2
Season: 16-2

Vikings-Saints Should be Good Start to Season

My love for the Vikings is non-existent.

That said, I think they have a very good team, even without Sidney Rice. Brett Favre is a special breed, and there's no reason to assume he won't play well again in 2010. People have tried the "Ah, he'll just get hurt" crap for so many years that I wonder how they haven't given up yet.

In the end, though, the Vikings need a few things to go their way, however, to pull off a win in the season opener at New Orleans tonight.

Run the ball. It's an old saying, but the Vikings have to run the ball and control the clock. They don't have the horses on defense to make anything happen if they're in a 45-44 shootout-type game. It just won't work for them. Instead, they need to run the ball effectively, control the clock with Adrian Peterson and the short passes, and keep the Saints offense standing on the sideline with their hands on their hips.

It sounds simple, but sometimes you got to keep it simple.

Win in the trenches. The Saints' front four defensively is good, but not unbeatable. They made their money last year by blitzing. The Vikings have issues on the offensive line, but Peterson is their biggest liability in pass protection.

I expect the Vikings to combat this not by subbing him out of games, but by using tight end Jim Kleinsasser as a running back on passing downs. Add another extra blocker -- I'd propose tight end Jeff Dugan -- and the Vikings are in a situation where they can allow Favre to make the plays in the passing game without fear of constant harassment. If the Saints see the Vikings using the max-protect looks that they didn't use much in January, I would expect them to blitz less, not more.

Leaving four Vikings in pass patterns and facing man coverage is a deadly move if you don't get to Favre quickly. He's shown he can make that work before, and he'll do it again if he has to.

The biggest thing is to keep him upright and confident in his pocket.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have a similar choice. They're woefully thin in the secondary, so they either need to use their linebackers to help in pass coverage, or they need to get a hell of an effort out of the front four. Look for New Orleans to spread the Vikings defense out. Sean Payton isn't dumb. He knows he can spread out the defense, keep them from disguising a lot because of their lack of bodies, and probably neutralize the front four a little bit.

That means the front four needs to play their best game since the last time they faced the Packers.

Defense can win games, too.

Composure. Amid all the talk of cheap shots and dirty hits and what not, this game will not be decided by fisticuffs.

The officials will be looking to keep the game clean, and they'll be looking to keep it from getting out of hand.

That means you can look for something to be called in the first quarter that wouldn't normally be, whether it's an extra shot along the sidelines, or a borderline hit on a quarterback, or an overly aggressive open-field hit on a wide receiver. It's probably going to happen, and the team that avoids taking those penalties and best maintains composure will have a huge advantage, especially early in the game.

In the end, I see the Vikings coming up just short. It doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things, because they should feel pretty good about things as long as they go in and play reasonably well. With Favre leading the way and inspiring his teammates, I expect they'll play well.

Just not well enough. New Orleans is too healthy and too deep, especially on offense, where they can really hurt the Vikings without getting too far away from what they do well.

Saints 23, Vikings 20

The rest of Week 1 (home team in CAPS):
TAMPA BAY over Cleveland
Miami over BUFFALO
CHICAGO over Detroit
Oakland over TENNESSEE
NEW ENGLAND over Cincinnati
N.Y. GIANTS over Carolina
PITTSBURGH over Atlanta
Denver over JACKSONVILLE
HOUSTON over Indianapolis
San Francisco over SEATTLE
Arizona over ST. LOUIS
PHILADELPHIA over Green Bay
Dallas over WASHINGTON
Baltimore over N.Y. JETS
KANSAS CITY over San Diego

NFL Season Predictions

Most of these are available via FanHouse, but I thought I'd lay everything out there on the record, just so everyone is aware of where I stand before the Vikings game kicks off Thursday night.

Here we go.

AFC East
1. New England
2. N.Y. Jets
3. Miami
4. Buffalo

--> Jets are overrated. I really like the Patriots to have a big year. Buffalo could be the worst team in the league. No team is worse off at the quarterback position.

AFC North
1. Baltimore
2. Cincinnati (Wild Card)
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland

--> The Steelers will get a sniff from some prognosticators to make the playoffs. It wouldn't surprise me, but I'll go with the teams that appear to have fewer holes, and no suspended starting quarterbacks.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis
2. Houston (Wild Card)
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville

--> I think this is the year Houston breaks through. They won't have quite enough to win this division, but they'll get in the playoffs for the first time.

AFC West
1. Oakland
2. San Diego
3. Kansas City
4. Denver

--> Upset city! The Raiders have a great defense ready to break through, and they'll take advantage of San Diego's personnel issues. Kansas City is getting closer.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia
2. Dallas (Wild Card)
3. Washington
4. N.Y. Giants

--> The Giants will be a good team, but not good enough. Washington is improved with Mike Shanahan, and while Dallas is severely overhyped, they're a playoff-caliber team. I love Philadelphia to prove a lot of people wrong with good play from both lines and the emergence of Kevin Kolb as the next star quarterback in the NFL.

NFC North
1. Minnesota
2. Green Bay
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

--> As already explained, I see the Vikings ahead of Green Bay at this point. Chicago is way behind unless Mike Martz and Jay Cutler have a magical season together. Look for progress -- but not a lot of wins -- out of Detroit.

NFC South
1. Atlanta
2. New Orleans
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

--> This is the Falcons' year. They have a good, solid, balanced team with some great young players. New Orleans won't have much of a Super Bowl hangover, but it will be enough to cost them the division.

NFC West
1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Seattle
4. St. Louis

--> The league's worst division stays that way. 49ers win by default, while Arizona barely holds off two bad teams for second place.

AFC Championship: Baltimore over New England
NFC Championship: Atlanta over San Francisco
Super Bowl: Baltimore over Atlanta

Why the Packers Will Miss the Playoffs

This job is never easy.

In fact, as proven last year, it's usually an exercise in futility.

That doesn't mean I am going to quit. Instead, I just aim to be better.

It wouldn't take much.

When the season starts, there are always teams that are hyped to the hilt. This year, those teams are the Jets, Ravens, Cowboys, and Packers.

The Jets are hot because they have a good defense led by one of the league's best in Darrelle Revis. The Ravens have people's attention because of their always-tough defense, along with the improvements they've made recently on offense, adding Anquan Boldin to help make Joe Flacco's life easier.

Dallas is Dallas, the always-darling team that never seems able to get over the hump. In this case, the hype only grows because of the fact they are hosting the Super Bowl at Cowboys Stadium.

The Packers? Well, they have Aaron Rodgers and a top offense. They also have more holes on defense than at least half the league does, along with an offensive line that has to prove it's better than the one that surrendered 51 sacks last year.

What is the love coming from? Well, besides Rodgers and the offense, it appears many are mesmerized by Dom Capers and his defense. No, they weren't good in the playoff game, and Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger were stout against them. They have to get better in the secondary, and Capers has the belief they will do just that.

Of course, he's basing that on what he thinks will be an improved pass rush, and outside of the word of Capers -- a respected coach -- we have no idea if this will happen.

Look at the talent in the secondary. Charles Woodson and Nick Collins are both Pro Bowl performers. Collins is a tad overrated, and Woodson probably is now, too, thanks to the season he had last year. Like Favre with the Vikings, Woodson is unlikely to repeat 2009. Asking him to is unreasonable and unrealistic.

At cornerback, the Packers are blessed to have Al Harris. Oh, wait. He's hurt. And they have blossoming youngster Brandon Underwood. Oh, wait. He's hurt.

And Collins is flanked at safety by hard-hitting Atari Bigby. Oh, wait. He's hurt, too.

Harris and Bigby are out until at least Week 7. Underwood is too young to be relevant, but he is because he's currently the nickel cornerback. And Tramon Williams, toasted more often than English muffins, starts opposite Woodson.

And you people think this is a Super Bowl team? Are there eight NFC teams who are just going to throw their hands in the air and forfeit the season?

Quarterback is the most important position on the field. There, the Packers are set. If Rodgers can survive a season where he got pummeled, both because of bad line play and his tendency to hold the ball in the pocket too long, he can survive virtually anything. He's tough. He's a leader. He's a damn good quarterback, and he will probably win a ring before he's done in Green Bay.

Hell, it might happen this year.

I just don't think so.

While quarterback is the most important position out there, it's still defense that wins. When the Colts needed stops in the AFC Championship Game, they got them. When the Saints needed a play in the NFC Championship Game, they forced turnovers and set up their offense to win.

In the end, it was Tracy Porter -- not Drew Brees -- that made the game-clinching play in the Super Bowl. And the Saints defense made one more stop near the goal line as the Colts tried to close back to a one-touchdown deficit.

The old adage still applies. Offense sells tickets. Defense wins rings.

When it comes down to it, the Packers don't have nearly as good a defense as Minnesota. They're not as good up front -- where the Vikings don't need to blitz on play after play to generate pressure. They're not as good at linebacker. The Vikings have guys like E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway, both of whom make plays. The Packers have A.J. Hawk, who doesn't do anything without being told to first. He has no instincts, especially in a 3-4 defense.

In the secondary, neither team is flawless, but at least the Vikings aren't dealing with an empty deck like the Packers are. A guy like Asher Allen might not be a Pro Bowler this year, but he's better than Williams or Underwood.

Simply put, it's hard to envision this Green Bay team -- minus additional consistency and better overall pass defense -- winning more than nine or ten games against their schedule. That's a good record, but it's not nearly good enough to make the playoffs in a conference that's loaded with powerful teams like New Orleans, Atlanta, Dallas, and even Philadelphia, teams that will be duking it out for division titles, but only two of the four can win division titles.

I hope for the best, and I think the Packers can win a lot of games and make some magic. But asked if I think they will, I have to respond in the negative.

Prove me wrong.

UMD Teams Movin' On Up in Polls

While the UMD football team took Labor Day weekend off, the volleyball team got their season started in Omaha. The Bulldogs went 4-0 at the UNO Shootout, beating Arkansas-Fort Smith, Adams State, Northwest Missouri State, and Angelo State, and making it look relatively easy along the way.

In doing so, UMD was able to impress those who vote in the American Volleyball Coaches Association Division II poll. This week's edition of the poll saw UMD move up four spots from ninth to fifth this week.

Defending national champion Concordia-St. Paul is still No. 1, and while five different teams got first-place votes, no one gave UMD the nod. That makes some sense, because those most likely to give UMD a boost in the polls are probably from this area, and it's hard for them not to vote for Concordia in the top position.

The Bulldogs are in Fort Lauderdale this weekend for a tournament, and then they open the home schedule Tuesday at Romano Gym against Northern State.

The football team, meanwhile, moved up a spot in the American Football Coaches Association Division II poll. Top-ranked Northwest Missouri State lost last week, so both UMD and Grand Valley State -- the new No. 1 team -- moved up a spot. The now-No. 2 Bulldogs play Saturday at Upper Iowa.

The Bulldogs got two of 26 first-place votes in the poll. I saw part of Grand Valley State's 34-31 win over West Texas A&M, and the Lakers look strong again. They'll be a formidable opponent in this region when the playoffs come around, and I fully expect both UMD and Grand Valley State will be in the playoffs again.

In fact, for the foreseeable future, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bulldogs and Lakers developed quite an impressive rivalry in Division II football.

BlogPoll 2010: Week 2 Ballot

A lot happened over the weekend, but I figure I won't be alone with a bit of a milquetoast ballot this week.

I just didn't see enough to change my mind about the teams I felt strongly about. If nothing else, the weekend reaffirmed my beliefs in a lot of these teams.

The Ciskie Blog Ballot - Week 2

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
2	Boise St. Broncos	--
3	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
4	TCU Horned Frogs	--
5	Texas Longhorns	1
6	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1
7	Oregon Ducks	1
8	Florida Gators	-3
9	Oklahoma Sooners	1
10	Iowa Hawkeyes	1
11	Miami Hurricanes	1
12	Virginia Tech Hokies	-3
13	Utah Utes	1
14	Wisconsin Badgers	2
15	West Virginia Mountaineers	--
16	Pittsburgh Panthers	--
17	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	2
18	LSU Tigers	2
19	Oregon St. Beavers	-2
20	North Carolina Tar Heels	-7
21	Auburn Tigers	--
22	Stanford Cardinal	--
23	Texas A&M Aggies	1
24	Missouri Tigers	-1
25	Houston Cougars	--
Dropouts: Penn St. Nittany Lions

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

I've always said that the bottom of an early-season ballot is a crapshoot. You could go about 44 different ways with the last five to seven teams and have a reasonable argument.

I was very tempted to rate North Carolina ahead of LSU, but I'm just not sure how much more Les Miles could screw up than he did Saturday, and UNC still didn't have enough to win the game.

Bring on the Cupcakes: College Football Opens With Its Usual Whimper

It's kind of like what Paul Crewe says in the 2005 version of The Longest Yard, when asked by the prison guy how to best get his football team ready for a game.

"In college, we'd start every season against Appalachian State or some slack Division II team. Kick the living (bad word) out of them."

Appalachian State irony aside -- right, Michigan fans -- this is how college football teams start their season.

Find a Division I-AA team that stinks. Sign a contract to play them. Beat the snot out of them. Move on to Week 2.

It takes a bit of fun out of this upcoming weekend, but not all of it. After all, the season does open this week. There are some good games.

The rules around here are pretty simple. We pick every game involving a Big Ten team to beef up the overall percentage. Then we grab a few interesting games and pick those. We try to do it once a week. Sometimes it fails.

The picks fail more often, but such is life.

The top games this week are as follows:

Pittsburgh at Utah (Thursday)
Connecticut at Michigan
Purdue at Notre Dame
Oregon State vs. TCU at Arlington
LSU vs. North Carolina at Atlanta
Boise State vs. Virginia Tech at Baltimore

That's not a ton to pick from. Boise/VTech is the best of the bunch, and I don't think it's particularly close. We'll get to see this elite Boise offense operate against a strong Tech defense. Kellen Moore threw three picks in over 400 passes last year, but if the Hokies are on their game, they could match that in one night.

What people aren't talking about enough is the Boise State defense. The Broncos don't give teams a lot, and they have some potential stars like Ryan Winterswyk, Billy Winn, and Winston Venable out there. I know Tyrod Taylor has some receivers to work with, and I know he has Ryan Williams back to run the ball. I get that. But this Boise defense can seriously go. This isn't going to be about Virginia Tech having some sort of advantage in the trenches because they're from a "major conference" and Boise is from the WAC.

After all, we all thought that last year when Boise played Oregon, and the Broncos did the mouth-punching on that night.

This team is legit, and they're playing with a chip on their shoulder. Boise wins Monday night.

The pick: Boise State

As for the other games (home team in CAPS) ...

Thursday night
UTAH over Pittsburgh
SOUTH CAROLINA over Southern Miss
INDIANA over Towson
OHIO STATE over Marshall
Minnesota over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

Saturday
MICHIGAN STATE over Western Michigan
PENN STATE over Youngstown State
IOWA over Eastern Illinois
Missouri over Illinois (at St. Louis)
Colorado State over Colorado (at Denver)
MICHIGAN over Connecticut
NOTRE DAME over Purdue
Northwestern over VANDERBILT
TCU over Oregon State (at Arlington)
LSU over North Carolina (at Atlanta)
Wisconsin over UNLV

Monday
Navy over Maryland (at Baltimore)

Last year: 68-40 (we think)

College Football 2010: Minnesota

Yes, we're doing a College Football Preview again. Yes, you know I love Phil Steele's work. Order from his plethora of preview options here. I'm also armed with The Sporting News College Football 2010, and I picked up the Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook this year, too. I've also done research through local newspapers and school websites to try to get the most up-to-date information on the teams.

When Joel Maturi fired Glen Mason because his team blew a 31-point lead in a bowl game on a channel no one gets (NFL Network), he reached into the large pool of middling NFL assistants who are dying to become head coaches. He plucked Tim Brewster from the Denver Broncos staff, in part because a guy named Mike Shanahan absolutely loved him.

Brewster had worked as a recruiter at Texas, claimed the credit for bringing Vince Young on board, and proceeded to give the media a bunch of bluster about Big Ten titles and Rose Bowls and things the Gophers haven't done in so long that their fans probably don't even know the things exist.

Good thing he was a talker, because the product he fed Gopher fans in the Metrodome's final seasons convinced no one of his ability to coach anything. In his first season, the Gophers went 1-11, lost to I-AA newcomer North Dakota State, and made the Big Ten proud by losing non-conference games to Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic. Things weren't much better in 2008. The Gophers started 7-1, yes, but that would be it for the whole "winning games" thing. Included in a season-ending five-game skid was an improbable 29-6 home loss to then-hapless Michigan. Then Iowa closed out the Metrodome's history of hosting Gopher football by edging Minnesota 55-0.

Last year, Minnesota almost beat Wisconsin in early October, then almost beat Illinois and Iowa later in the year. And they almost beat Iowa State in their bowl game.

Almost.

There's heat on Brewster this year. He can't afford a lot of almosts anymore, because the fans are on to the fact that he's an ace recruiter who doesn't appear to be as good a game coach.

Unless he planned to blow two timeouts to challenge an obviously correct call in the Air Force game last year. Perhaps that was intentional.

Offense
Senior quarterback Adam Weber has gone downhill for most of the last two years. He flashed some ability as a freshman on a bad team, but hasn't done much on mediocre teams since.

Not sure what that means, but Brewster's insistence on a move away from the spread offense didn't help Weber much. The fact that Duane Bennett and DeLeon Eskridge never have presented a consistent ground threat hasn't helped, either. The presense of newcomer Lamonte Edwards will help a bit this year, but after the Gophers averaged all of 99 rush yards per game last year, there isn't anywhere to go but the right direction.

Backup quarterback MarQueis Gray ran some and threw little as a freshman. Seemed like a waste of a potential redshirt, but I'm sure Brewster had a plan.

The Gophers lose leading receiver Eric Decker, but they got a good taste of life without him when he missed the team's last five games with an injury. That he still led the team in catches and yards by substantial margins shows you the state of the Minnesota passing game.

It's feeling Minnesota.

Da'Jon McKnight and Troy Stoudermire will be expected to play significant roles, but their ability to do so is questionable. The team hopes junior Brandon Green can inject some life into the receiving corps.

Four seniors are expected to start on the offensive line. That might not be a good thing, because that line allowed 41 sacks last year. Imagine if Weber wasn't a pretty good athlete.

Defense
Help wanted. Apply within.

Not much went right on this side of the ball last year. Minnesota allowed over 150 rush yards per game, opponents hit 58 percent of their throws, averaged 217 yards per game, and the Gophers only posted 22 sacks. Nine starters, including leading tackler Lee Campbell and top playmaker Nate Triplett, are gone. It's not the 2007 team that couldn't stop anyone, but it was close, and it hurt the Gophers' ability to compete in conference play.

It's too bad that the losses are so heavy, because Minnesota's run defense showed signs of life late in the Big Ten season, and the defense played well in the bowl game even though Iowa State piled up a lot of yards.

Look out for linebacker Spencer Reeves, a potentially good player who could become a leader on the strong side. Minnesota needs a lot out of tackles Brandon Kirksey and Jewhan Edwards, because the pass defense will be hurting for some time. The safety position is a mess, as Kim Royston is recovering from a broken leg and Kyle Theret is suspended at least for the opener at Middle Tennessee.

Brewster has recruited athletes all over the defense, but there simply aren't any proven players around because of graduation and suspension. It's going to be very hard for them to be remotely good on defense for at least the first few games of the season.

Special teams
Senior kicker Eric Ellestad is a bright spot. He hit 13 of 17 field goals last year. His kickoffs weren't very deep, but he has a chance to get better in that area. Freshman Dan Orseske should handle the punting duties.

Stoudermire had fumble problems last year, but he is a capable returner. The coverage teams are meh, but as the overall team depth improves, the Gophers should see improvement in this area.

Prediction
Pain.

This isn't Minnesota's year. There's already a lot of grumbling in the Twin Cities for a coaching change. The Gophers are only a field goal favorite against Middle Tennessee State in their season opener. They have to play USC Sept. 18. The league home schedule includes Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa, none of which look particularly winnable.

It just seems the deck is stacked against Brewster this year. It's nothing a great coach can't overcome, but Brewster has done nothing to make anyone around the Minnesota program think he's a great coach.

In fact, it's just the opposite.

Weber must shine as a senior, no matter the offense. He has to find reliable playmakers on the perimeter, and the Gophers simply have to run the ball better.

Even if these things happen, it might not be enough for Minnesota to win more than four or five games. If they don't, they could be looking at another 1-11 or 2-10 season, and that won't fly in Gopher Country.