NFL Season Predictions

Most of these are available via FanHouse, but I thought I'd lay everything out there on the record, just so everyone is aware of where I stand before the Vikings game kicks off Thursday night.

Here we go.

AFC East
1. New England
2. N.Y. Jets
3. Miami
4. Buffalo

--> Jets are overrated. I really like the Patriots to have a big year. Buffalo could be the worst team in the league. No team is worse off at the quarterback position.

AFC North
1. Baltimore
2. Cincinnati (Wild Card)
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland

--> The Steelers will get a sniff from some prognosticators to make the playoffs. It wouldn't surprise me, but I'll go with the teams that appear to have fewer holes, and no suspended starting quarterbacks.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis
2. Houston (Wild Card)
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville

--> I think this is the year Houston breaks through. They won't have quite enough to win this division, but they'll get in the playoffs for the first time.

AFC West
1. Oakland
2. San Diego
3. Kansas City
4. Denver

--> Upset city! The Raiders have a great defense ready to break through, and they'll take advantage of San Diego's personnel issues. Kansas City is getting closer.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia
2. Dallas (Wild Card)
3. Washington
4. N.Y. Giants

--> The Giants will be a good team, but not good enough. Washington is improved with Mike Shanahan, and while Dallas is severely overhyped, they're a playoff-caliber team. I love Philadelphia to prove a lot of people wrong with good play from both lines and the emergence of Kevin Kolb as the next star quarterback in the NFL.

NFC North
1. Minnesota
2. Green Bay
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

--> As already explained, I see the Vikings ahead of Green Bay at this point. Chicago is way behind unless Mike Martz and Jay Cutler have a magical season together. Look for progress -- but not a lot of wins -- out of Detroit.

NFC South
1. Atlanta
2. New Orleans
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

--> This is the Falcons' year. They have a good, solid, balanced team with some great young players. New Orleans won't have much of a Super Bowl hangover, but it will be enough to cost them the division.

NFC West
1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Seattle
4. St. Louis

--> The league's worst division stays that way. 49ers win by default, while Arizona barely holds off two bad teams for second place.

AFC Championship: Baltimore over New England
NFC Championship: Atlanta over San Francisco
Super Bowl: Baltimore over Atlanta

Associated Press' Duty: Strip Cheater Brian Cushing of Award

The NFL does not hand out the major postseason awards recognized by The Associated Press. The AP does. It's their members -- their chosen panel -- who vote on the honors.

While the league might enjoy having a hand in such matters, they really don't. So when it's time to look at who the awards were given to and hand out criticisms, most people blindly blame the league while not understanding the process that decides the winners.

Houston Texans linebacker Brian Cushing won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2009. And no one questioned the vote. After all, Cushing was a Pro Bowl selection as a rookie, and he tied for the AFC lead with 133 tackles. Them's some impressive credentials for a first-year pro.

However, Cushing's past caught up to him along the way. Last year, before he was drafted, rumors of the use of performance-enhancing drugs clouded Cushing's draft status. He boldly proclaimed he wasn't "that kind of guy," and Houston bought the act.

Hook. Line. Sinker.

Now, the Texans are left to pay for their faith in Cushing, who was suspended four games Friday for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

Guess he might be that kind of guy after all.

ESPN reports the test he failed was actually taken last September, and the matter was stuck in appeal since then.

The article also notes an NFL rule that bans players who test positive for PEDs from playing in the Pro Bowl, so Cushing won't be eligible to go to Hawai'i, no matter how well he plays in 2010.

Sports Illustrated's Peter King, as well plugged-in and knowledgeable as any scribe who covers the sport, has some harsh words for Cushing in Monday's MMQB.

Cushing admitting that he appealed the positive test in February makes it virtually certain that he derived benefit from whatever illegal substance he took during his rookie season. And if this suspension is the result of a positive test at any point during the 2009 season, I'm in favor of stripping him of the defensive rookie of the year award and giving it to second-place finisher Jairus Byrd of Buffalo.

FanHouse colleague Dan Graziano blasted Cushing -- who acknowledged the suspension but refused to admit using steroids -- in a Saturday piece.

Really? We're expected to believe this? Again? Nearly every athlete who's ever tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs has fed us the same garbage story. Nothing about Cushing's denial is believable or even original. He's just another cheater who got caught and refuses to fess up, hiding behind an overrated NFL drug policy that's not transparent enough to tell us whether he's telling the truth or not.

Because the league's drug policy doesn't allow it to reveal the substance for which Cushing tested positive, we are left with his word, which in this case is worth less than the test tube that held his tainted urine. You can believe Cushing if you want, but if you do then you're the kind of person who's going to be surprised the next time this same exact thing happens with your favorite player and fall for that player's story even though it's the same one you've heard time and time again.

The rest of us are tired of this. We're waiting for somebody who gets caught cheating to actually stand up and say, "Yeah. Sorry. I cheated. I took a drug that I'm not allowed to take. I did it because I thought it would give me an advantage in the game I play for a living. I knew it was wrong, and I didn't think I'd get caught, but I did and now I have to take my punishment like a grown man."

Dan notes that some have admitted to taking stuff for their own benefit. Others have admitted to taking PEDs, but not for the reason of gaining an advantage. They used the tired excuse of "needing to recover from an injury," instead.

Reality is that the AP -- given ESPN's report, which came courtesy of insider Adam Schefter -- has no choice here. They must strip Cushing of his award and offer the honor to Byrd.

Of course, if I were Byrd, I'd have a bit of a hard time accepting. No, it's not out of sympathy for Cushing, who made his own bed here and must be punished for his misdeeds. Instead, it just has to be awkward accepting a pretty big honor so far after the fact.

(Never said I wouldn't accept it ... just that it would feel weird.)

Frankly, the AP is making a bigger statement if they honor someone. Vacating the award doesn't mean as much, compared to actually handing the award to the second-place finisher.

And the AP owes the league, the players who choose to avoid PEDs, and the writers who work hard to fairly fill out their ballots every year. They owe us all an award that goes to a proper recipient, as opposed to the all-too-typical guy who chooses to cut corners and take things he knows he can get in trouble for taking.

Cushing is the worst kind of pro athlete. Not only is he a cheat, but he's a liar. He's willing to lie to potential employers, denying rumors and speculation about his off-field habits that obviously carried more weight than he acknowledged before the 2009 draft. He's willing to lie to a thriving, boisterous fan base that just wants a winner in a great, fertile football area. He's willing to lie to teammates, coaches, owners, media types, and league officials.

Even now, after he got caught with his hand (buttocks?) in the cookie jar, Cushing refuses to admit to anything. Instead of fessing up, admitting he cut corners and took PEDs, but will now vow to lead a clean life and educate other young players about the dangers of PEDs and the fact that -- you know -- they're against the rules, Cushing continues to dig himself a hole.

These guys have out-of-control egos that we continue to feed on a weekly basis. It's why they take the crap in the first place, and moreover why they don't bother to admit any wrongdoing when they get caught.

It's always an accident, a tainted sample, a false positive, a misunderstanding, or recovery from an injury.

In this case, Cushing should lose more than four games' pay. It's not enough to make this guy wear the badge for the rest of his career. Go back and take away the award he "earned" under false pretenses. Give it to the guy who really earned it, and also managed to pass his drug test.

Why the Colts Are Wrong

Week 17 is usually a crapshoot in the NFL, kind of like how Week 1 is. We never know for sure how good teams are going to be, so there are many uncertainties in season openers.

Equal to that -- for different reasons -- is Week 17. The end of the season brings a lot of different approaches. Some teams go all out, trying to end the season on a winning note. Others play like they just can't wait to clean out their lockers and move on to the next year.

For other teams, Week 16 is the time to start playing out the string. Among those would be the Indianapolis Colts.

At 14-0, Colts management -- led by team grand poobah Bill Polian and rookie head coach Jim Caldwell (in the photograph) -- faced a dilemma. Go for the unbeaten season, maintain a rhythm for all your starters, or sit the important players, assuring their health for the playoffs?

By now, you know what the Colts did. They took quarterback and MVP favorite Peyton Manning out of Sunday's game with the Jets, leaving a 15-10 game in the hands of rookie Curtis Painter. The bug-eyed youngster quickly turned 15-10 into 29-15, and the Colts had their first loss.

Meanwhile, teams like Green Bay have a decision to make this week. The Packers can't improve their playoff position, no matter what they do. They're a wild card team, they're going on the road for the first round, and it's likely they'll have to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl.

Sunday's Week 17 game is meaningless. What should they do?

For the Packers, it should be obvious. You do what the Colts did. Guys like Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, Chad Clifton, Mark Tauscher, and Charles Woodson start, play a few series, then depart for a cozy seat on the bench.

Why is this so obvious, while what the Colts did was so obviously wrong?

To start, recent history works against the top seeds. Last year, only Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Arizona won home playoff games. AFC top seed Tennessee and the NFC's top seeded Giants both were one and done, losing to their respective conference's sixth-seeded teams, both of whom had upset division champions on the road the previous week.

Furthermore, the Colts have done this dance before, only to be met by an epic fail in the playoffs. The last two times Indianapolis secured a first-round bye, they were ousted in the divisional round by a road underdog. In fact, Peyton Manning is now 0-3 in his career in the divisional round after a first-round bye.

In all three situations, the Colts half-assed their season finale and lost.

This time around, the Colts decided not to wait for their season finale. They half-assed the 15th game, will almost assuredly do it again Sunday in Buffalo, and could go into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak.

Why?

There have been 43 Super Bowl winners. Many of them have been non-descript, except within their own franchises. Once the list hits 50 in a few years, it will become more and more watered down with forgettable figures.

The 1972 Dolphins are unforgettable. The 2009 Colts no longer have an opportunity to be unforgettable.

Yes, the objective to win the Super Bowl is a noble one. Everyone wants to do it. But given the way the playoffs have unfolded over the last few years (No. 1 seeds have not battled in a Super Bowl since New England-Philadelphia in 2004), don't you owe it to your fans to have a little momentum heading into the tournament?

Speaking of the fans, how mad are you today if you're a Colts season-ticket holder? It's bad enough to think that your team basically threw a game in front of you, but how about the fact that they're throwing your money away?

Let's say a good season ticket for Lucas Oil Stadium costs $750 (arbitrary figure, I know). Two of them (since you're not sitting alone) will run $1500. You're buying tickets for two games (preseason) that don't count and won't be taken seriously by anyone. Now, a third game has been thrown away by your team, since they are afraid of getting any good players hurt.

That means that 30 percent of your season ticket money will have gone to tickets for games that the home team isn't trying to win.

Doesn't that make you question your investment a bit? I mean, if they're not trying to win, what the hell are you doing spending so much money on the game? What fun could it possibly be to watch the home team go through the motions, especially against a team desperate to win?

As much as you have to respect the Colts for what they've accomplished, it's easy to see why people respect the Patriot way more. With an unbeaten season in their sights, New England played their 2007 season finale like it was the most important game of the year, even though home field had been clinched for weeks.

Guess what? No one was seriously injured, everyone was entertained, and the Patriots won.

It's too bad, for the sake of everyone who likes football, that Indianapolis didn't treat history with the same reverence. Maybe they could have finished the job that New England didn't.

NFL WEEK ONE - FOR STARTERS

I'm not going to spend much time on this, because I have food to prepare before the game tonight. But I wanted to get a pick in.

You've read my series of NFL previews, so I will just throw a few things out there.

• Neither defense is particularly impressive.
• As a result, everyone is predicting a high-scoring game, which probably ensures us a 20-14 result.
• This game counts. Finally.

I'm with the home team tonight. I think the Colts will struggle a bit to find their rhythm, but this is Peyton Manning we're talking about, and I think he's still driven.

The pick: Indianapolis

(The rest of the NFL picks for this weekend, along with my college picks, tomorrow.)

NFL FOOTBALL '07: AFC SOUTH

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the AFC South. This division has been owned recently by the Colts, who have won the last four division titles. They have a combined record of 50-14 in that span, and they haven't won fewer than ten games in a season since the division was created in 2002. Is this the year that someone topples the Colts atop the division?

1. Indianapolis Colts
Last year: 12-4 (3-3 vs. AFC South)
Playoffs: Beat Kansas City in AFC Wild Card; Beat Baltimore in AFC Divisional Playoff; Beat New England in AFC Championship; Beat Chicago in Super Bowl XLI

Magic found the Colts at the right time last year. Safety Bob Sanders returned from injury, and suddenly they had a run defense for the postseason. After being one of the worst run defenses in the league during the regular season, Indianapolis was outstanding in their four playoff victories. Now, as they embark on their title defense, the Colts have a number of issues that could derail their drive for a repeat.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. How will the Colts recover from the losses on defense? They re-signed star DE Dwight Freeney, which was great news. But they lost CBs Nick Harper and Jason David and LB Cato June to free agency. Also gone is safety Mike Doss, but he didn't play much last year due to injury. Obviously, the Colts will lean heavily on Freeney and Sanders, along with LB Gary Brackett. Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson are the new starting corners, which attacks Indianapolis' depth more than their talent. These guys can play. The issue in the secondary surrounds who will be on the field when opposing teams go three- and four-wide? The Colts drafted Cal's Daymeion Hughes (now known as Dante Hughes, by the way), but it's not yet known when he'll be ready to contribute significantly.

2. Will Peyton Manning ever slow down? He now has his championship, but there is no indication that Manning intends to stop at one title. The Colts may have needed their significant improvements on defense in order to win it all last year, but Manning's leadership was a key, too. When the game was on the line against New England, Manning led his team down the field for the eventual game-winning score. He was nearly flawless in leading the Colts past the Bears in the Super Bowl, despite awful throwing conditions in Miami. The receiver depth was attacked a bit this offseason, with Brandon Stokley departing, but the Colts pounced quickly by drafting Ohio State's Anthony Gonzalez in the first round. While Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are the stars, TE Dallas Clark has emerged as a favorite of Manning's, and he's an important piece to the offense. When Clark was forced to miss time with a knee injury, the Colts were just 1-3. He may not have caught as many passes as fellow TE Ben Utecht, but Clark's presence will be of great help to Manning.

3. How much will the offensive line be hurt by the retirement of LT Tarik Glenn? The Colts need to replace a guy who was a fixture on one of football's best offensive lines for years. There's no way this will be easy. For now, the job belongs to rookie Tony Ugoh, the Colts' second-round pick out of Arkansas. Glenn and C Jeff Saturday were the two best parts of the Colts' line last year, and losing one of them is a potential disaster. But Ugoh is a capable player who has done nothing in training camp to make the Colts terribly concerned about this position. That said, replacing a veteran rock with a rookie stud could lead to problems, especially for a quarterback who has not needed to worry much about his offensive line over the years.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year: 8-8 (2-4 vs. AFC South)
Playoffs: None

Despite the fact that he started all four preseason games, the Jacksonville Jaguars decided late last week to bench starting QB Byron Leftwich in favor of backup David Garrard, who got the chance to start last year when Leftwich was injured. With the team coming off an exceptionally uneven 8-8 season, is this the spark the Jaguars need to make a run at the playoffs this year?

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is the decision to go with Garrard the right one? PFP makes a great point about Garrard and his supposed mobility. The public perception was that Leftwich just stood there like a statue and invited sacks with his immobile nature and goofy throwing motion. PFP disputes by looking at the Adjusted Sack Rates for Leftwich and Garrard last year. Surprisingly, Garrard's was noticeably higher than Leftwich (6.5 percent to 5.3).

The man is not a gazelle, but when we look at the results, it is clear that Byron Leftwich's mobility is not a significant problem.

Garrard threw costly interceptions in losses to Houston and Tennessee last year. The numbers don't lie: It just doesn't appear that this is a huge upgrade for Jacksonville. In fact, with their depth at quarterback in question at the outset of the season, it may rate as a huge mistake for them. Frankly, looking at their performance, I'm perplexed at Jack Del Rio's decision. It strikes me as being almost as much a personal issue as a performance one. Del Rio and Leftwich never really got along famously, and this was Del Rio's chance to rid himself of a conflict.

2. What went wrong last year? The Jaguars outscored their opponents by a rather healthy margin, weren't blown away in giveaway/takeaway ratio (-1), and beat the living crap out of the eventual Super Bowl champions. So how, exactly, did this team lose games to Houston (two!!), Washington, and Buffalo? They can run the ball, they have talented receivers, and they have a potentially great defense. Seriously, how were they just 8-8? Luckily for me, I don't have to have an answer to this. That's Del Rio's job.

3. If they can solve issues at safety, how good will this pass defense be? Corners Brian Williams and Rashean Mathis are both capable of playing at a high level. The other safety position is held down by veteran Sammy Knight, who should be solid. Gerald Sensabaugh is listed as the starter at free safety, but rookie Reggie Nelson has to be considered the future starter. With Deon Grant having moved on, the Jaguars are concerned about the middle of their secondary, but the talent is there to take care of those concerns. With all the other star power on this defense, it really shouldn't become a serious issue.

3. Tennessee Titans
Last year: 8-8 (4-2 vs. AFC South)
Playoffs: None

Memories of a 0-5 start went away quickly when Vince Young took over the offense. While the Titans were far from dominant, Young showed a great grasp of Norm Chow's offense, which Chow did a super job of tweaking to benefit Young. Young also showed a flair for the dramatic, leading dramatic wins over the Giants, Indianapolis, Houston, and Buffalo as he led the Titans to an 8-8 finish. However, it's worth noting that the Titans were indeed far from dominant, and such close wins do not tend to repeat themselves from season to season, especially when the team involved had a poor offseason.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. So who's going to catch the ball now? Top receivers Drew Bennett (St. Louis) and Bobby Wade (Minnesota) are both gone, leaving the job to - wait for it - Eric Moulds. Moulds didn't impress in Houston, and he may yield to youngster Brandon Jones as the Titans' top receiver. For Young, it will help greatly to have top TEs Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe back, and another offseason working with Chow should increase his understanding of the system. It also gives Chow more time to construct ways to make Young successful, even though the top targets from last year are gone.

2. That's not the only problem. Who's going to run the ball? The Titans enter the season with LenDale White, Chris Brown, and Chris Henry as their top three backs. White is listed as the starter for the opener, but he only has 62 NFL carries (0 touchdowns) to his name. Brown has had injury issues, and Henry is a rookie. Last
year's leading rusher, Travis Henry, now plays for Denver after a 1,200-yard season in Tennessee. The running game is a serious issue for the Titans, because it can't all revolve around Young's mobility.

3. What to do with the defensive backfield? The suspension of Pacman Jones is a serious concern, even with the signing of former Colt Nick Harper. He'll start at one corner, with Cortland Finnegan listed as the starter on the other side. Rookie Michael Griffin should be of great help by mid-season. Finnegan will also work in Jones' place as the club's top kick and punt returner. Jones, for all his off-field faults, was really beginning to round into his own as a cover cornerback and kick-return threat. Harper and Finnegan are nice players, but they don't have anything close to Jones' upside.

4. Houston Texans
Last year: 6-10 (3-3 vs. AFC South)
Playoffs: None

The talent does appear to be improving in Houston. The Texans have had some whiffs in the NFL Draft, but WR Andre Johnson, CB Dunta Robinson, and DL Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye look like keepers. Houston has a solid coach in Gary Kubiak, who managed to coax six wins out of a pretty bad team last year. Now, Kubiak is charged with transitioning to a new QB and RB, along with trying to rebuild a defense that has the aforementioned young talent, but is wrought with disappointing players and depth concerns.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Is Matt Schaub the right choice? After another disappointing season, the Texans jettisoned their first-ever starting quarterback, David Carr, instead deciding to bring in former Atlanta backup Schaub. The move came after Carr was sacked 272 times in five seasons, and it didn't come without some debate among the "experts". Some said Carr was never going to work out as an NFL starter, while others decried Schaub's anointment, given his career completion rate of just 52 percent. Personally, I'm willing to see how Schaub develops as an every-week starter, something he's never been in the NFL.

2. Do the Texans have enough skill-position help for Schaub? They signed RB Ahman Green, who topped 1,000 yards last year but appears to be in decline. The depth there is solid, with Green, Ron Dayne, and Samkon Gado all available. The depth at WR behind Johnson is atrocious. Kevin Walter should start on the other side, and former Brown/Cowboy Andre Davis is the third receiver. Unheard-ofs Jacoby Jones and Jerome Mathis will also see playing time. Much like the Bills, Houston missed out on a chance to upgrade this position, but in their defense, it just wasn't a favorable year to do so.

3. Who fills the many holes on defense? Robinson is the only solid talent in the secondary. One can safely assume that the other starting corner, currently listed as Demarcus Faggans, will be picked on a bit. Last year's first overall pick, Williams, and this year's first-rounder, Okoye, are joined on the line by Travis Johnson and Anthony Weaver. DeMeco Ryans comes off a solid rookie season at MLB, but there are issues at both outside positions. The best player of that bunch appears to be Morlon Greenwood.