NFL Season Predictions

Most of these are available via FanHouse, but I thought I'd lay everything out there on the record, just so everyone is aware of where I stand before the Vikings game kicks off Thursday night.

Here we go.

AFC East
1. New England
2. N.Y. Jets
3. Miami
4. Buffalo

--> Jets are overrated. I really like the Patriots to have a big year. Buffalo could be the worst team in the league. No team is worse off at the quarterback position.

AFC North
1. Baltimore
2. Cincinnati (Wild Card)
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland

--> The Steelers will get a sniff from some prognosticators to make the playoffs. It wouldn't surprise me, but I'll go with the teams that appear to have fewer holes, and no suspended starting quarterbacks.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis
2. Houston (Wild Card)
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville

--> I think this is the year Houston breaks through. They won't have quite enough to win this division, but they'll get in the playoffs for the first time.

AFC West
1. Oakland
2. San Diego
3. Kansas City
4. Denver

--> Upset city! The Raiders have a great defense ready to break through, and they'll take advantage of San Diego's personnel issues. Kansas City is getting closer.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia
2. Dallas (Wild Card)
3. Washington
4. N.Y. Giants

--> The Giants will be a good team, but not good enough. Washington is improved with Mike Shanahan, and while Dallas is severely overhyped, they're a playoff-caliber team. I love Philadelphia to prove a lot of people wrong with good play from both lines and the emergence of Kevin Kolb as the next star quarterback in the NFL.

NFC North
1. Minnesota
2. Green Bay
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

--> As already explained, I see the Vikings ahead of Green Bay at this point. Chicago is way behind unless Mike Martz and Jay Cutler have a magical season together. Look for progress -- but not a lot of wins -- out of Detroit.

NFC South
1. Atlanta
2. New Orleans
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

--> This is the Falcons' year. They have a good, solid, balanced team with some great young players. New Orleans won't have much of a Super Bowl hangover, but it will be enough to cost them the division.

NFC West
1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Seattle
4. St. Louis

--> The league's worst division stays that way. 49ers win by default, while Arizona barely holds off two bad teams for second place.

AFC Championship: Baltimore over New England
NFC Championship: Atlanta over San Francisco
Super Bowl: Baltimore over Atlanta

PACKERS GOING AFTER TAYLOR?

There have probably been many thoughts posted today on reports that the Packers are interested in trading for Jason Taylor.

I figured it wouldn't hurt anyone if I threw my two cents in.

First off, a quick summary of what's going on. From Greg Bedard of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

After informally asking the Miami Dolphins what they wanted in exchange for defensive end Jason Taylor before the draft, the Packers have kept cursory contact with the Dolphins and have done their homework internally since then.

Packers general manager Ted Thompson recently discussed Taylor with defensive coordinator Bob Sanders and defensive tackles coach Robert Nunn, who both coached Taylor with the Dolphins. Both assistants have a fondness for Taylor and would undoubtedly be in favor of acquiring the 2006 NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

Sounds like the Packers have discussed the idea, but I'm guessing Thompson doesn't routinely discuss potential trade targets with assistant coaches. With that in mind, I'm led to believe that there might just be something to this.

ESPN's Chris Mortensen took the Ron Wolf angle on all of this:

Wolf has long anguished over the lack of "deal-makers" in the NFL, past and present. There were a handful -- Parcells and Wolf among them -- but not enough. Now in retirement, Wolf has lamented the overall lack of risk-taking, if you can call it that, in quest of the ever-elusive Super Bowl ring.

Thompson has been more conservative than Wolf. He has cherished draft picks to the point that it seems he's obsessed with them. In his first four years as the Packers' GM, he had the mission of rebuilding a team with salary-cap issues. Now the Packers are $30 million under the cap, still one of the youngest teams in the NFL and coming off an appearance in the NFC Championship Game.

If nothing else, this is an intriguing storyline as we enter the "down time" of early summer. This is a time of year where most team executives will take extended time off, and the players aren't involved in any organized football work.

It seems obvious to me that Taylor will need to commit to playing at least two more years if he is to be dealt. From the sounds of it, he wants to be dealt, no matter what he says publicly. He'd also have to commit to attending training camp in Green Bay. If he was truly serious about skipping camp with the Dolphins, that would be one thing. He's been there a long time, knows most of his teammates and the system he will be playing. Plus, it would be their problem and not my team's.

While he is probably at least aware of the system he'd play with the Packers, he would need some time to get acclimated to the coaching staff and his new teammates.

If Taylor isn't willing to commit to more than one season, there is one other way for a deal to happen. The Dolphins would either have to back off their demand for a high draft pick, or they'd have to accept a conditional pick in 2010, based on if Taylor agrees to continue playing in 2009. I'm not even sure such a deal is allowable under NFL rules, but it strikes me as the only chance Miami has of getting a first-day pick for Taylor, unless he decides to play beyond one more season before a deal is done.

FAREWELL, TIM RUSSERT

"Big Russ and Me" and "Wisdom Of Our Fathers" were brilliant. His work on "Meet the Press" was influential, even for those not involved in politics.

While his background was in politics, the Buffalo Bills would be remiss not to pay a tribute to Tim Russert this fall. They didn't have a bigger fan anywhere. Russert was famous for chatting guests up about his beloved Bills and Sabres, and he was also insistent on getting home after "Meet the Press" tapings, so he wouldn't miss kickoff of the Bills games.

I was struck by the statement from Senator John McCain, who will officially become the Republican nominee for President in a couple months.

"I am very saddened by Tim Russert's sudden death. Cindy and I extend our thoughts and prayers to the Russert family as they cope with this shocking loss and remember the life and legacy of a loving father, husband and the preeminent political journalist of his generation. He was truly a great American who loved his family, his friends, his Buffalo Bills, and everything about politics and America. He was just a terrific guy. I was proud to call him a friend, and in the coming days, we will pay tribute to a life whose contributions to us all will long endure."

I'm not a political expert, and I'm not a media expert. I'm simply in the media. However, I find it hard to believe that you are going to find anyone in this or any other business who is more prepared for work than Tim Russert was. From that standpoint, he will always be revered in the media business. You don't manufacture the kind of passion or work ethic he possessed. It's either there, or it isn't.

Farewell, Mr. Russert, and condolences to Big Russ, who loses his son on Father's Day weekend.

JASON TAYLOR BLOWING OFF TRAINING CAMP

Though I wish he'd take part, I generally don't have a problem with Miami Dolphin Jason Taylor skipping his team's offseason work this weekend. "Dancing With The Stars" is a royally stupid television show, but it's here to stay, and it's a commitment. Taylor made that commitment, did very well on the show, and I have no issues with him choosing to hang out with his wife and kids this weekend, now that the competition is over.

However, today's revelation that Taylor is skipping all the Dolphins' offseason workouts and training camp shows the potential for a different agenda.

Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said on Wednesday that Taylor won’t be participating in any of the team’s offseason activities — and that he won’t be at training camp.

“I know that Jason is not going to be at any OTA’s,” Sparano said. ”I know that Jason will not be at any minicamps. I know that right now Jason is not going to be at training camp.

“That’s what we know. Jason is a player under contract with the Miami Dolphins. He knows that. Both parties are well aware of the information. That’s all I’m going to say about it. . . . I’m not going to talk about another thing about Jason.”

Frankly, I think this is stupid. Taylor is supposedly a football player first. Sure, everyone needs something to do after football, and for some, a career in Hollywood has a bit more appeal than sitting in a New York/Los Angeles studio talking about football every Sunday.

But Taylor is under contract with the Dolphins, he's expressed no public desire for a new contract, and he's expressed no public desire to be traded. If he wants to be a Dolphin, he needs to be a Dolphin. That means he needs to report to minicamp (the mandatory one) June 6, and he needs to show up for training camp.

Instead of football, Taylor's eyes are obviously on life after football. If that's the priority, I suggest Taylor consider retirement from playing football. It's never struck me as a game you can play half-assed.

AN OPEN LETTER TO SENATOR JOHN KERRY

**The following is not text of an actual letter being sent to the loser senator. I'm too lazy to buy a stamp.**

December 26, 2007

U.S. Senator John Kerry
304 Russell Bldg.
Third Floor
Washington D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Kerry

First off, belated thanks to you on running your 2004 presidential campaign incompetently enough as to ensure four more years of That Guy. Next time, why not get caught with a prostitute in the middle of the primaries so someone else can get a shot?

Anyway, that's not the point of my letter today. Senator, I wanted to congratulate you on winning your political game with the NFL office, mainly Commissioner Roger Goodell, whom you have successfully persuaded to make an NFL Network game available on regular television.

You spoke loudly about the need for everyone Patriots fans to see the game. It is a noble cause, as the Patriots are taking a shot at an unprecedented 16-0 regular season. And since only 40 percent of American homes get the NFL Network, it would be tough for all those homebound New England fans to catch their team's shot at history.

However, I have a couple questions, and only one of them is sarcastic in nature.

1. Where were you when the NFL Network's game actually mattered and meant something? Let's face facts. If New England wins this game, but loses a playoff game, they aren't remembered for going 16-0. They're remembered for not getting it done in the playoffs, despite being a transcendently good team. If New England loses this game and goes on to win the Super Bowl, they are remembered as being one of the greatest teams to ever take to an NFL field, even if they are "only" 18-1 instead of 19-0.

This game is meaningless on the standings. The Giants and Patriots have both clinched their playoff seeds, and it could be argued that the only way this game isn't a walkover for New England is if the Giants don't bench starters like Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress, who are valuable but banged-up. And if they don't bench those starters, it could be argued that they're not doing something that is obviously in their best interest, since they're hitting the road for a playoff game next week.

On November 29, the Packers played at Dallas. Both teams entered the game 10-1, and the game was going to put one of them in the driver's seat for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. Not only that, but it was a matchup of two of the NFL's great traditional franchises, with fans planted all over the country. Somehow, Senator Kerry, you didn't have a problem with that game being on the NFL Network, where upwards of 60 percent of America couldn't see it in their homes, even Packer fans in your home state of Massachusetts, who probably had to hunt out a Packer-friendly bar somewhere.

Way to care about your constituents, Senator.

2. What about these poor fans of 48 Hours - Mystery, High Crimes, and Law and Order: SVU? You've just taken their shows away on Saturday, all in the name of your political game. I hope you're proud.

And what about those fans of My Chemical Romance? They've been waiting all week to see their performance on Saturday Night Live, and now the show won't be on time because the football game will surely run past 11:30pm Eastern time.

Poor people. More pawns in John Kerry's latest political game.

(Guess which one was sarcastic. If you can't figure it out - and I'm guessing that, as a relatively humorless U.S. Senator, you can't - it's the second one.)

I'm all for access to football games. But in an era where the NFL has allowed DirecTV to have a stranglehold over satellite distribution of out-of-market games (for a price that exceeds $1 per game), it's rather silly for Kerry or any other politician to get all in a fuss over a game like this.

10.1 million people found a way to watch Cowboys-Packers. If they really cared, they'd do it again for Giants-Patriots. The NFL doesn't need to play favorites with the Patriots and cave in to political heat in order to increase access. If anything, they've hurt the marketability of their own channel, and perhaps doomed it for failure. After all, if anything of potential historic significance is ever again relegated to the NFL Network, the league knows that they've set a rather awkward precedent with this Saturday's game.

Oh, wait. I forgot to sign the letter. Thanks for your time, Senator.

Now go away.

Sincerely,
Bruce Ciskie
Sports fan who actually made an effort to get the NFL Network

RANDOMIZATION: 09/17/07

Someone help Charlie Weis. Poor guy is probably beside himself right about now. Well, "poor" is a bit of a misnomer, $30 million contract and all. But you know what I mean.

Listen, I'm the last guy who is going to drum up sympathy for Notre Dame. They have their own lucrative television contract, they can schedule anyone they want, and they have a tremendous recruiting edge because of the aforementioned television contract.

("Listen, kid. You can come to South Bend, where every one of your games will be televised nationally. The majority of them are on over-the-air TV. NBC has our home games, and our road games always get lots of attention because Notre Dame equals ratings. Or, you can go to Purdue, where any games not picked up by ESPN end up on ESPN 360 or the Big Ten Network, which have a combined reach of about 37.")

However, it's hard to say anything good about Weis' coaching this year. While teams like Ohio State are making plenty of noise with inexperienced starters, the Irish just look lost. Jimmy Clausen is going to be a pretty good college quarterback, but that's not going to happen as long as the running game, offensive line, and wide receivers all stink.

I know Weis isn't going anywhere, because he's signed long-term, and he's allegedly the savior of the program and all. It's just worth noting that this team is 0-3, awful, and still facing the toughest portion of their schedule.

Not even the green jerseys can save them now.

More on the Patriots. It wasn't really much of a shock that the bulk of NFL pregame programming Sunday was focused on the issue last week involving the Patriots. There are clear issues facing the league right now, and after seeing commissioner Roger Goodell on NBC last night, I am convinced that this guy is ready to face those issues.

(By the way, the Patriots kicked the living crap out of San Diego. That's what we all get for making them mad. Of course, the fact that they're a really good football team had nothing to do with their success.)

While Goodell tried to evade some of Bob Costas' questioning, he gave us some very important information regarding the case. Goodell confirmed that he expects the Patriots to turn over all files and tapes and such related to the case, and he said he's prepared to up their punishment if they don't. When Costas reacted skeptically to the order, Goodell reiterated that he expects New England to comply.

As an outsider, his response struck me as the equivalent to a parent saying "Because I said so". Goodell sees himself as the league's main authority figure, and he's absolutely unafraid of flexing his muscles. Not only will he flex, but he expects that his orders will be followed to the letter. The bottom line is that Goodell expects the threat of further punishment to be enough to make New England compliant. We can question the wisdom of that, but I have no reason to believe that Goodell will stand for being disobeyed.

Also, Goodell confirmed to Costas that he indeed has reserved the right to add to the punishment if he sees fit. This is a perfect response. No beating around the bush. He just laid it out there. Clearly, Patriots fans aren't going to be happy with the possibility that this story isn't done yet. But Goodell came across as determined to complete a thorough investigation into this issue.

I salute that, even if I'm still a bit skeptical that he'll uncover everything he's searching for.

Here it is, BlogPollers. I'm throwing out a challenge. It's for all of you who voted for USC as the top team in early polls, then picked someone else for #1 last week as punishment to USC for daring to have a bye week. Oh, how dare they!

Anyway, who's your choice this week? Oklahoma showed nothing because they played the fourth-best team in Utah (you've seen nothing until you've seen that Southern Utah juggernaut in action). LSU showed nothing except that they have a better defense than Louisville, but I think we all knew that.

USC, meanwhile, stomped all over Nebraska in Lincoln. Handed the Huskers their worst home loss since 2003, but this may have been worse. There are expectations with this team. Not only that, but this one happened in prime-time on national television, with tons of buildup.

In terms of USC's program, it's one of the more impressive wins they've had. Undoubtedly, beating a contender to a pulp on the road is more impressive than beating a contender to a pulp at home.

(I have no answers on this. I voted for USC at #1 last week, and I'm keeping them there this week. Ballot tomorrow or later today or whatever.)

The Packers are 2-0. It hasn't happened since 2001, so let me rejoice a tad. The Pack beat up the suddenly hapless Giants 35-13 Sunday, and they did it with that washed-up oldhead Favre throwing for three scores and hitting his first 14 passes of the second half. Man, I wish that guy hadn't lost it so decisively.

The Packers host an angry San Diego team Sunday, but it's not a lost cause. The Chargers have struggled to run the ball in the first two weeks, and outside of TE Antonio Gates, they don't pose a great threat in the passing game. That defense, however, is potentially the toughest the Pack will face this year (outside of perhaps the Bears). The Chargers have the personnel to cause Favre a lot of problems, and the Packers will get him broken in half if they're not careful.

That said, this is a time to enjoy the start. It's a good one.

PATRIOTGATE? WHAT A STUPID NAME

I know "Belichickgate" doesn't roll off the tongue, and "Videogate" isn't specific enough, but "Patriotgate"?

And does every "scandal" have to have "-gate" on the end of it? I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that the break-in happened in Washington instead of here, because that would be just awkward to explain to the kids.

Anyway, the name might be stupid, but the story was quite interesting. If you didn't hear, and I'm not sure how you could have pulled that off (after all, I was in Green Bay, and I heard even when I wasn't trying), the New England Patriots apparently employed some intern or whatever to videotape the Jets' sideline coaches sending hand signals out onto the field.

The Jets' security team, clearly made aware of this tactic having been used in the past, caught the offending employee, confiscated the camera, and sent it to the league office. The league found enough evidence in that camera to fine the Patriots organization $250,000, take away their first-round pick in next year's draft (second- and third-rounders should a miracle happen and the Patriots miss the playoffs), and the league also slapped the maximum $500,000 fine on head coach Bill Belichick.

Since then, the media has predictably had a field day with this story, and more stories of its ilk have come out. Other teams had experienced strange happenings while playing the Patriots, and none of them thought enough of what happened to inform the league about it. Matt Millen of Detroit said it best when he told Sports Illustrated's Paul Zimmerman, "You never know for sure. And if you don't know it at the time, you don't feel right reporting it later."

To me, this isn't about what happened to other teams. The league needs to look into potential issues involving headsets, because we have heard nothing of these problems at other stadiums. If it's happening at Foxborough and nowhere else, it needs to be looked at very carefully.

What this is about also isn't the legacy of Belichick or Tom Brady or Charlie Weis or Robert Kraft or anyone else with the Patriots. It's not that I don't think anything of these questions. Instead, I don't think they're valid right now. These aren't the issues that you bring up in the week after a story like this breaks. They are the issues that we bring up once we know everything there is to know about the story. We don't know everything right now. In fact, we might not know much of anything.

I'm worried right now about the game's integrity, as is the commissioner. While some may say he didn't act harshly enough, I do think he took a huge step here. The punishment is not a light one, and it comes to one of the league's true signature franchises. I have no problem with it, because only a forfeit would have been more severe (I am not in the camp that believes a suspension of Belichick would have accomplished much, because it wouldn't have), and the Patriots weren't forfeiting a game they won 38-14 even if it was proven that they played with 12 guys on the field on every play.

In looking at what happened, I see a few indisputable points:

• The Patriots violated a league rule.
• The Patriots had been directly warned about this particular rule.
• The Patriots have done this before. If you believe that they just happened to get caught the first time they did something like this, then I'd like some of what you're smoking.
• Jets head coach Eric Mangini had some clue that the Patriots were doing this, likely from his time there as an assistant.
• Mangini should have reported what he knew to the league office long before it came to this.

If you believe this has never happened before, you're crazy. I guess there are some who believe that a person's first drunk-driving arrest signifies the first time they ever drove drunk. But I tend to think that's usually wrong.

Along similar lines, if you believe that this tarnishes the legacy of the franchise all by itself, you're also crazy. I mean, do you honestly think this hurts the legitimacy of every game this team has ever won? Don't you think they would have had the whistle blown on them at some point if it was really that well-known and common of a practice? What does it say about the NFL when a team can do this, possibly for years, and get away with it until one of their former assistant coaches gets the guts to say something?

Listen, I respect the Patriots and Belichick, but the bottom line is that they deliberately and knowingly broke NFL regulations and got caught. The "Everyone else is doing it" line doesn't work. The "We didn't think we were breaking the rules" line doesn't work. Neither does "It's not that big of a deal". If the league asks teams to avoid using a particular brand of tape or glove, and a team gets caught defying the request, it's a big deal. You do what you're asked, and you stop doing what you're asked to stop. It's not a time to try to skate by on "interpretation of the rule". That's an excuse, and a bad one at that.

It's similar to the athlete that says "I didn't know that what I was taking contained a banned substance". The body is a temple for these guys. They know what they're putting in it, and they're lying if they say they don't. They don't eat a bowl of cereal without checking first.

Belichick is in the same mold. If you think for one second that he's authorizing behavior that might be in direct violation of NFL rules without knowing that the league might be mad if they catch it, you're an apologist for the guy. Belichick and his coaches don't do anything without knowing first if it's legal by league rules. For that matter, no self-respecting NFL coach would do that.

Patriots fans, I have some simple advice for you. Your team cheated, and they got caught and punished rather severely for it. The sooner you can deal with these indisputable facts, rather than allowing yourself to get caught up in some PR garbage, the better.

This isn't about the Jets, Mangini, the Chargers, Lions, Bengals, Mike Martz, Tony Dungy, or anyone else not involved with the Patriots. Trying to make it about the "whiners on the outside" only makes your case look weak.

I guarantee that the Patriots organization will handle this aftermath better than their fans do.

NFL FOOTBALL '07: AFC EAST

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the AFC East. Last year, New England never seemed to be threatened on their way to the division title. Can they run away with the division again, or will the ManGenius' Jets be ready to pose a serious challenge?

1. New England Patriots
Last year: 12-4 (4-2 vs. AFC North)
Playoffs: Beat N.Y. Jets in AFC Wild Card; Beat San Diego in AFC Divisional Playoff; Lost to Indianapolis in AFC Championship

A quick gander at the 2006 Patriots, and you wonder exactly how Tom Brady was able to cobble together a presentable passing game with these scrubs. The leading receiver, Reche Caldwell, is no longer on the team. Second-leading receiver Troy Brown starts the 2007 season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list, as does last year's fourth guy, Chad Jackson. Yet the Patriots project to have one of the top passing offenses in football this season, and it's almost all thanks to the new faces brought in this offseason.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. How will Brady mesh with his new receivers? I can't imagine this will be terribly difficult. Sure, Donte Stallworth, Randy Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Wes Welker, and Kelley Washington are going to bring different personalities to the plate. But Brady is a master at keeping everyone happy. He's also the ultimate leader in the huddle, and it stands to reason that he won't accept anyone lolly-gagging on routes or blocking assignments. The five have combined to be on zero championship teams, while Brady has three rings already in his career. Not only that, but Brady hasn't exactly been a "Trent Dilfer-type" on any of these championship teams. He's been one of the best players in the league for a while now. Even with a guy like Moss, who has always marched to the beat of his own drummer, Brady's track record has to elicit a great deal of respect.

2. Who will step up and be the star on defense? Joining Brown on the PUP list is star DE Richard Seymour, meaning he can't practice with his teammates until Week Seven. Not only that, but veteran safety Rodney Harrison will miss the first four games after being suspended. Harrison admitted to authorities that he took HGH (human growth hormone), making him the first player known to be suspended for taking HGH, a drug that lacks a reliable test. The Patriots still have some solid players on defense. Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, and Jarvis Green will help solidify the line, and they still have LBs Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Junior Seau, and Roosevelt Colvin running around. Oh, and they signed Adalius Thomas away from Baltimore. He might be a good addition. Despite the return from holdout of Asante Samuel, the secondary is a concern. The need still exists for a reliable #2 cornerback alongside Samuel. The better Samuel plays, the tougher it's going to be to slow down those second receivers, because no one will want to test Samuel.

3. Can Laurence Maroney carry the load at running back? No more Corey Dillon, which puts the onus on Maroney to be the feature guy. From a "Can he hold up physically?" standpoint, this isn't a problem. However, I am concerned about Maroney being able to stay fresh for all 16 games. Even in college at Minnesota, he always had a 1,000-yard rusher working with him. As good as Maroney was, he was never asked to carry the load. I don't see him physically wearing down, but I do think this is worth watching throughout the season. Bill Belichick is a master of recognizing how far to push guys.

2. New York Jets
Last year: 10-6 (4-2 vs. AFC East)
Playoffs: Lost to New England in AFC Wild Card

The Jets surprised many last season by beating New England in Foxborough and riding that win to a ten-win campaign and a playoff spot. Of course, their reward for making the playoffs was getting spanked by the Patriots again, but the Jets have shown that they are the team best-equipped to challenge New England in the AFC East.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Can the Jets figure out how to stop the run? Not many playoff teams can boast about being last in the NFL against the run, as the Jets were a year ago. A second year in the 3-4 defense should prove better than the first, when it seemed the Jets were trying to fit square pegs into round holes on the line. While the Jets were active in the offseason, they still are in need of a stout nose tackle to anchor the three-man line. They're better this year than they were last year, but my best guess says the Jets will still finish near the bottom of the table at stopping the run.

2. How much improvement will the Jets show in their running game? Leon Washington led the way with just a shade over 650 total rushing yards last year, and that won't work. Washington is still best-suited as a complimentary back, and the Jets recognized that. They traded for Chicago starter Thomas Jones, who was sharing more and more carries with youngster Cedric Benson. While Washington and Cedric Houston still fit in the mix for the Jets, Jones becomes the feature back. Coming off a 1,200-yard season in Chicago, the Jets have every reason to believe Jones is a significant upgrade.

3. Just hit us with it: Are the Jets good enough to challenge New England? Probably not. There is reason to think the Jets will be better, but will the final record reflect that? New York was relatively useless defensively last year, and while it would be nice to think they'll show vast improvement, it's more likely that the team will end up with a worse record despite being improved. PFP points out that the Jets' Pythagorean record last year was 8.7-7.3, meaning the Jets were almost 1.5 wins better than what should have been expected. That probably won't happen again this year.

3. Buffalo Bills
Last year: 7-9 (3-3 vs. AFC East)
Playoffs: None

There was a bright side to 2007 for the Bills. Young QB J.P. Losman showed a lot of progress in his development, and Lee Evans has emerged as a star receiver. The Bills shook off a 2-5 start to go 5-2 over their next seven games. The defense did get better last year. However, the offseason was not good. The Bills lost leading rusher Willis McGahee, top LBs London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes, and star corner Nate Clements, and the replacements are, well, um...

KEY QUESTIONS
1. So, yeah, who fills all those shoes? The Bills were smart to use a first-round pick on RB Marshawn Lynch. The kid is good, and while he might not step in and run for 1,500 yards this season, he gives the Bills a home-run threat in the backfield. Anthony Thomas returns as the primary backup, and he should see plenty of work as the Bills don't want to overwhelm Lynch early. Second-round pick Paul Posluszny has looked good inside, and he will start in Week One. Angelo Crowell and Keith Ellison fill the outside spots. At corner, newly-signed Jason Webster starts, as does the returning Terrence McGee. Look out here for second-year guy Ashton Youboty, who missed much of last season with injury and only dressed for three games.

(NOTE: After this particular preview was written, it was learned that Ellison is out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain. Coy Wire becomes the new starter.)

2. Is Losman-to-Evans going to get some help? Based on their offseason inactivity, the Bills clearly believe the guys they had last year are going to get better. Evans had a little help last year, but he was clearly the top dog. Peerless Price, Josh Reed, and Roscoe Parrish are all back. Red and Parrish are young enough to get better, and Price does know this offense well. It's hard, however, to say that the Bills will be improved throwing the ball. They really needed to address this position in the offseason, but in their defense, this was a dreadful year for upgrading at wide receiver without grossly overpaying for guys.

3. Will Losman get better protection? The Bills tried to address their line in free agency, but only came away overpaying for Darnell Dockery. He'll play alongside rising LT Jason Peters, a former tight end who could be the blind-side answer Buffalo has been looking for. The Bills still have some work to do on the right side, where Langston Walker will start at tackle. Any improvement here will help Losman, who still has to get better before the Bills can become a playoff contender.

4. Miami Dolphins
Last year: 6-10 (1-5 vs. AFC East)
Playoffs: None

While the Nick Saban drama really didn't help matters much last year, the Dolphins season was pretty-well screwed before Saban began flirting with Alabama. A four-game winning streak that followed a 1-6 start wasn't good enough to lift the Dolphins to playoff contention, and the Saban situation only exacerbated matters down the stretch. Now, this is Cam Cameron's team, and the aging Miami defense will be asked to work a miracle to keep this team afloat.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Trent Green? Really? Instead of drafting Brady Quinn, the Dolphins are going to roll the dice with Green, who was injured in the season opener last year, didn't return until after midseason, and looked awful most of the time when he did play. Granted, Green will probably be better than either Joey Harrington or the corpse of Daunte Culpepper were last year, but he's a Band-Aid on a six-inch stab wound. The Dolphins need more out of this position, and Green might be able to give it to them. At some point, however, they'll need to find out if either Cleo Lemon or John Beck can be the future starter.

2. Have the Dolphins surrounded Green with enough talent to be successful? Ronnie Brown is a keeper at RB, but there are issues at receiver. Chris Chambers is back, but has been underwhelming for most of his career. Marty Booker has had a nice career, but the depth is questionable. Wes Welker went to New England, and youngsters Derek Hagan and Ted Ginn might need more time to round into form. TE Randy McMichael went to St. Louis as a free agent, so the Dolphins brought in oft-injured David Martin from Green Bay.

3. Can the Dolphins win with a somewhat aging defense? Star LB Zach Thomas is 34, DE Jason Taylor is 33, free-agent signee Joey Porter is 30, DT Vonnie Holliday is 32. PFP points out that the Dolphins' front seven last year averaged 31.3 years of age, making it the oldest front seven in the league since 2001 (tying the 2005 Dolphins). Since 2001, they say the average front seven starter in the NFL was 27.6 years old. There is some youth in the person of LB Channing Crowder, DE Matt Roth, and all over the secondary.