Preseason NCHC Predictions

Another season is upon us, and now it's time to fruitlessly predict how the NCHC will finish pull out the crystal ball and make some picks.

Before we do that, here's how they finished in 2014-15:

1. North Dakota
2. Miami
3. Omaha
4. Denver
5. UMD
6. St. Cloud State
7. Western Michigan
8. Colorado College

For fun, here's how I picked them:

1. Miami
2. St. Cloud State
3. North Dakota
4. UMD
5. Omaha
6. Denver
7. Western Michigan
8. Colorado College

Not as bad as the year before, but still not very good. Of course, that won't stop me from trying again. I wish I wasn't so stubborn.

8. Colorado College

I was prepared to move the Tigers out of the cellar, even with questions up front and in goal, largely because of defenseman Jaccob Slavin. Then I turned on the NHL Network and saw him playing for the Carolina Hurricanes. Guess that means he's not coming back.

(Kidding. I knew he was gone. But seeing that was a stark reminder of how young CC is going to be this season.)

It seemed the Tigers had some moments of positivity in Mike Haviland's first season. There were plenty of nights where CC was competitive and just lost out on some bad bounces, or the stunning lack of scoring really reared its ugly head. I just don't see how they get out from that with 14 freshmen on the roster this year. Haviland will have a much better team, though. If the Tigers get goaltending they could really surprise.

7. Western Michigan

How stupid competitive is the NCHC? Western Michigan is good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. I have them seventh in an eight-team league.

Highly-respected veteran coach Andy Murray lost big forward Colton Hargrove to the Boston Bruins, but he returns speedy forward Sheldon Dries and highly-skilled Nolan Laporte, who can score goals while also getting under the skin of opponents. The hard-nosed Broncos did lose talented defenseman Kenney Morrison and four-year goalie Frank Slubowski, but Lukas Hafner is back in net, and Murray has some promising young defensemen to deploy.

(The team overall is young. Laporte and Hafner are the best -- in my view -- of a five-man senior class at WMU.)

Western might not wow anyone with its speed or pace of play, but the Broncos are a formidable foe because of how consistently hard they play. They're as good as anyone in the league at making life hell for opponents in all zones.

6. St. Cloud State

Last year, the Huskies finished sixth in the NCHC. How did they end their season? By blitzing Omaha in a two-game road playoff sweep, then taking down No. 1 North Dakota in the NCHC semifinals before bowing to Miami in the title game. Oh, and then SCSU went to the NCAA West Regional, beat Michigan Tech, and ended its season a win away from a second trip to the Frozen Four in three years.

Not too shabby, eh?

Bob Motzko has built a power here, a team capable of annual NCAA trips, and this year is no different. With that being said, the Huskies do have to fill some holes. Goal-scorer Jonny Brodzinski left early, and SCSU also lost steady leaders like Joe Rehkamp and Nick Oliver up front, along with Andrew Prochno and Tim Daly in the back.

Talent? They've got it. Joey Benik already made the leap, and he could be a darkhorse Hobey candidate. David Morley and Kalle Kossila lead a strong senior class, and Charlie Lindgren is rock-solid in goal.

5. Omaha

Some teams lost talented players. Omaha lost its backbone. If not for Ryan Massa, UNO doesn't make the Frozen Four. He might not have been at his best in the semifinal loss to Providence, but Massa was as good as any goalie in the country last year, and he was that way basically from start to finish.

He's gone now, but Dean Blais isn't shedding tears and wondering how his team will compete. While Massa was backstopping UNO to Boston, young players were learning the ropes and showing a ridiculous amount of promise. Now, the Mavs have Avery Peterson and Jake Randolph back as sophomores, joined by junior forwards Austin Ortega and Jake Guentzel, as dangerous as anyone in the league.

Blais will need Luc Snuggerud and Joel Messner to keep stepping forward on the blue line, as depth there is a bit questionable.

4. North Dakota

"Bruce, you're doing it again. You're underrating UND."

North Dakota fans should be happy. It seems I do this every year, and every year UND outperforms my expectations.

I respected Dave Hakstol as much as any opposing coach I've ever dealt with. I've heard nothing but good things about Brad Berry, who takes over after Hakstol left for the NHL. This prediction isn't about coaching. Not in the least.

Instead, I'm curious about UND's forward depth and goaltending. Even if Drake Caggiula puts up All-NCHC numbers as I believe he will, and even if Nick Schmaltz has the big year I think he will, I don't know that North Dakota has the scoring depth to win the league again.

What do I know? That North Dakota's blue line -- featuring Paul LaDue, Troy Stecher, captain Gage Ausmus, and soon-to-emerge Tucker Poolman -- is as good as any in college hockey. And just think: Jordan Schmaltz left early for pro hockey.

3. Miami

A disappointing end to last season, for sure, losing to Providence in the first round of the NCAAs, and when you look on paper, it's easy to say Miami was gutted up front. Austin Czarnik, Riley Barber, and Blake Coleman are all gone.

But the underrated Sean Kuraly and Anthony Louis are both back up front, and the RedHawks were able to supplement a large senior class (ten guys, including both primary goalies) with another strong recruiting class, led by NTDP star Jack Roslovic.

Defenseman Matthew Caito is one of the seniors, and sophomore Louie Belpedio will be one of the nation's best blue-liners this year (you'll notice I voted Belpedio to my preseason all-league team).

Despite the heavy losses, I expect Miami will content. Rico Blasi's team might not score as much this year, but they'll be stronger from the net out to make up the difference.

2. Denver

Similar to North Dakota, I do question Denver's forward depth. Trevor Moore and Danton Heinen are the most explosive forwards in the conference, but Jim Montgomery does need to find them a new center (assuming he keeps them on the same line). The good news? With all due respect to Daniel Doremus, Montgomery could put a broomstick in between those two and get 20 points out of it (it's an old wrestling analogy, just go with me on it). If Montgomery needs volunteers to play center on that line, I'll look into my college eligibility.

In all seriousness, you're not going to find a better one-two scoring punch, possibly in the country. Whoever plays center will be a better player for it, just having these two to feed. We talk about great centers making the linemates better. In DU's case, the unbelievably-talented Moore and Heinen can make the center better.

(Again, assuming they stay on the same line. I'd have to think DU at least starts out that way.)

Joey LaLeggia is the biggest loss in the NCHC, but Denver's blue line isn't a barren wasteland without him. Nolan Zajac and Will Butcher are ready, and Montgomery has some nice complimentary pieces in Matt VanVoorhis and Adam Plant. Freshmen Blake Hillman and Sean Mostrom will compete for a piece of the pie as well.

Oh, and the goalies. Tanner Jaillet and Evan Cowley both return, and while both had their share of struggles at times, Montgomery has a potent tandem in net.

1. UMD

Before you cry "HOMER!," know this:

2015-16 is my 11th year calling UMD hockey. I'm such a terrible homer that this is the first time I've ever picked UMD to win its conference.

And I have my reasons.

It starts with preseason All-NCHC goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo. Here's what I wrote about him in March:

Kaskisuo was fantastic in the NCAA Tournament, to the point I voted him Most Outstanding Player for the Northeast Regional (votes were due before BU got the late power play). He played well in both games, and this summer will be a key to his success going forward. I think he has a chance to be one of the best goalies in the NCHC, if not Division I, next season if he has a good offseason.

Now, we see it all come together for Kaskisuo. He unquestionably had a rough patch last season, and there were times his fundamentals were just a little off what they should be. If he can improve that .917 he put up as a freshman by even a couple percentage points, UMD is off and running. If something happens to Kaskisuo, senior Matt McNeely is waiting in the wings. "Matty Ice" only got in five games last year, but one of those was a crucial 2-1 win over Minnesota. In that game at the North Star College Cup, McNeely played possibly his best game as a Bulldog and helped UMD snap a four-game losing streak that threatened to spoil a promising season.

Preseason all-league defenseman and cap'n Andy Welinski leads a stout blue line that returns big-minute guys Willie Raskob and Carson Soucy (emerging as a top prospect on the Wild blue line, by the way), along with improved senior Willie Corrin. Oh, and Hermantown's Neal Pionk debuts this year after two strong years in the USHL.

Up front, the top line of Tony Cameranesi, Austin Farley, and Karson Kuhlman return intact, along with juniors Dominic Toninato and Alex Iafallo. UMD adds former Hibbing star Adam Johnson after he had a very good year in the USHL last year.

Not that it should matter, but given the difficulty UMD had extracting points from games against Western Michigan last year, it probably helps the Bulldogs that they only see Western Michigan once this year. It's the kind of scheduling break that could make a difference in such a competitive league.

UMD has skill, size, depth, and goaltending. I believe the Bulldogs have the fewest holes in the NCHC, and they are my pick to claim the Penrose Cup.

2014-15 NHL Season Predictions: Me vs Hunter vs Hat

I'll try to get back in this post in the next 24 hours and elaborate a bit on my picks, but the theme this year is simple.

I pretend to know a few things about hockey. My son, 12-year-old Hunter, likes to play and watch hockey, but he really doesn't pay much attention to who's good and who's not. My hat has no clue whatsoever. Hasn't even heard of the teams.

So who can pick the divisions better?

ATLANTIC
Me
1. Boston
2. Tampa Bay
3. Montreal
4. Florida
5. Ottawa
6. Detroit
7. Toronto
8. Buffalo

Hunter
1. Boston
2. Tampa Bay
3. Buffalo
4. Montreal
5. Detroit
6. Florida
7. Ottawa
8. Toronto

Hat
1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Florida
4. Ottawa
5. Buffalo
6. Montreal
7. Toronto
8. Tampa Bay

METROPOLITAN
Me
1. N.Y. Rangers
2. Washington
3. N.Y. Islanders
4. Pittsburgh
5. Columbus
6. New Jersey
7. Philadelphia
8. Carolina

Hunter
1. Philadelphia
2. Carolina
3. N.Y. Rangers
4. Pittsburgh
5. N.Y. Islanders
6. Columbus
7. Washington
8. New Jersey

Hat
1. Carolina
2. New Jersey
3. Philadelphia
4. Pittsburgh
5. Washington
6. Columbus
7. N.Y. Islanders
8. N.Y. Rangers

CENTRAL
Me
1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Minnesota
4. Dallas
5. Colorado
6. Nashville
7. Winnipeg

Hunter
1. Chicago
2. Colorado
3. Winnipeg
4. Minnesota
5. Nashville
6. Dallas
7. St. Louis

Hat
1. Winnipeg
2. Colorado
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. St. Louis
6. Nashville
7. Minnesota

PACIFIC
Me
1. Los Angeles
2. San Jose
3. Anaheim
4. Edmonton
5. Vancouver
6. Arizona
7. Calgary

Hunter
1. Los Angeles
2. San Jose
3. Anaheim
4. Vancouver
5. Arizona
6. Calgary
7. Edmonton

Hat
1. Calgary
2. Anaheim
3. Edmonton
4. San Jose
5. Los Angeles
6. Arizona
7. Vancouver

NCHC Preseason Prognostications

Welcome to the annual post where I feebly try to predict the order of finish in a college hockey conference, based almost solely on the reputations of the programs involved and the returnees on each team.

Before we begin, let's look at last year's results. Here's what I predicted:

1. Miami
2. North Dakota
3. Western Michigan
4. UMD
5. Denver
6. St. Cloud State
7. Colorado College
8. Nebraska Omaha

Here's how they finished:

1. St. Cloud State
2. North Dakota
3. Nebraska Omaha
4. UMD
4 (tie). Western Michigan
6. Denver
7. Colorado College
8. Miami

Three teams in the correct position, based on tournament seeds (UND, UMD, CC). One other team (Denver) within one spot of correct. But I was so glaringly wrong on St. Cloud State, Miami, and Omaha that I probably should just hand in my credential and let Chris Dilks write this post.

Let's see how I'll be off my rocker this year. After all, the definition of insanity is "doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result." And I'm nothing if not insane.

8. Colorado College Tigers

There is some intrigue on this team. Defenseman Jaccob Slavin is in a position to play 30-plus minutes at least some nights, and I really like some of the guys up front, most notably Alex Roos, who could take a huge step this season.

But depth is a question for first-year coach Mike Haviland, and so is goaltending. Josh Thorimbert was inconsistent at best on a bad team last year, and he's gone, leaving the job (in all likelihood) for Tyler Marble, who sat out injured last year.

Haviland takes over for longtime coach Scott Owens, and how the highly-respected veteran NHL coach fits in college hockey will be a storyline this season. And since I'm picking them last, the Tigers will probably win the league or something.

7. Western Michigan Broncos

This is where it starts getting really difficult, and I'm probably going to end up looking like an idiot. There's a lot to like about this Broncos team, most notably big forwards Josh Pitt and Colton Hargrove, along with smooth defenseman Kenney Morrison. However, Andy Murray loses Chase Balisy and Shane Berschbach up front, and their speed, skill, and leadership will be difficult to replace. Murray deployed both players in all situations last year, and they were effective.

Kyle Novak needs to take a big step at forward, and Morrison will be counted on for a lot of minutes with trusted veterans Dennis Brown and Jordan Oesterle both gone.

Lukas Hafner and Frank Slubowski compete for time in goal, where WMU should continue to be rock-solid. I'm just not sure Murray can find enough goals to get this team in the top four.

6. Denver Pioneers

There might not be a more important player in the league than DU defenseman Joey LaLeggia. He moves the puck, he protects his own zone, and he's a huge key to everything the Pioneers want to do in 2014-15. His presence is of added significance with the loss of David Makowski on the blue line. Yeah, Jim Montgomery can also send sophomore Will Butcher over the boards, but LaLeggia is the straw that stirs this drink.

The Pioneers have talent up front with guys like Ty Loney and Quentin Shore, but it's in goal where the big question mark lies. Who takes over for the departed Sam Brittain? That player will have huge shoes to fill come October.

5. Nebraska Omaha Mavericks

Yes, UNO loses Josh Archibald, Ryan Walters, and Brock Montpetit. Yeah, Nick Seeler is a late-summer departure Dean Blais can't recruit a replacement for. No, the goaltending situation doesn't really look like it's that much better.

Just look at those freshmen. Luc Snuggerud joins from Eden Prairie and will play a lot on the blue line. Blais added Duluth's Jake Randolph and Grand Rapids Mr. Hockey winner Avery Peterson up front, along with Tyler Vesel. Lots of high-end skill there, and no reason this team can't score goals.

Don't forget: Jake Guentzel and Dominic Zombo are both back, too. If Ryan Massa can grab the starting job and hold on to it, UNO is one of the most interesting teams in the nation.

4. UMD Bulldogs

No one wants to put all the pressure on a freshman, but UMD's fortunes this year will almost certainly be tied to freshman goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo. The former Minnesota Wilderness (NAHL) star is the likely starter at a position UMD has seen two years of struggles at. After five straight years of team save percentage of .900 or higher (as high as .920), the Bulldogs have slipped to .896 each of the last two winters. Last year, UMD would have allowed 15 fewer goals if that team save percentage would have matched the Bulldogs' opponents (.911). Considering UMD scored and allowed 104 goals last year, cutting 15 from the goals allowed total would have made a huge difference.

Can Kaskisuo do that? We don't know. But UMD should score more, as almost every key offensive contributor returns sans Caleb Herbert, who left early to sign with Washington. Joe Basaraba has gone pro after an 18-point senior season.

3. North Dakota

Yes, UND loses the criminally underrated Rocco Grimaldi, who left early to turn pro. Yes, North Dakota no longer has Dillon Simpson, one of the top defensemen in the country.

It doesn't matter.

Defensemen Jordan Schmaltz and Paul LaDue return. Forwards Mark MacMillan and Michael Parks are back, and so is goalie Zane McIntyre (formerly Gothberg), a 20-game winner if you're a Neanderthal and think "wins" matter when it comes to judging the quality of a goalie.

Oh, and the recruiting class includes stud forwards Nick Schmaltz and Austin Poganski.

North Dakota's going to be good. Probably really good.

2. St. Cloud State Huskies

After winning the league last season, Bob Motzko's Huskies will be a favorite again in 2014-15. They should be, too. SCSU needs to replace goalie Ryan Faragher, but the Huskies return forwards like Jonny Brodzinski and Kalle Kossila, along with star defenseman Andrew Prochno, who is one of the best in the country at his position.

Charlie Lindgren is favored to get the bulk of the work in goal. He made a handful of appearances last year and acquitted himself very well.

(The freshman class includes former Duluth Marshall Hilltopper Judd Peterson, by the way.)

SCSU has depth, snarl, and a lot of skill. This team will be a force again this season.

1. Miami Redhawks

Yeah, that whole "definition of insanity" bit. I know.

Rico Blasi's crew had a Murphy's Law type of season. Between injuries and surprisingly leaky goaltending, just about everything that could go wrong did for MU last year.

Don't bank on it happening again. Miami's run to the NCHC Frozen Faceoff championship game is just the start for this program. Nearly everyone is back, led by the dynamic Austin Czarnik and thumping forward Blake Coleman. The same suspects are back in goal, so MU is relying on improvement from Jay Williams and Ryan McKay. But if Miami stays healthy, Blasi has a much deeper and better-skilled team than last year.

I know "worst to first" seems like a stretch in such a strong league, but the Redhawks are going to be a contender this winter.

Preseason All-NCHC Team
Forwards
Jonny Brodzinski, St. Cloud State
Tony Cameranesi, UMD
Jake Guentzel, Nebraska Omaha
Defensemen
Joey LaLeggia, Denver
Andrew Prochno, St. Cloud State
Goalie
Zane McIntyre, North Dakota

All-Rookie Team
Forwards
Karson Kuhlman, UMD
Avery Peterson, Nebraska Omaha
Nick Schmaltz, North Dakota
Defensemen
Louie Belpedio, Miami
Luc Snuggerud, Nebraska Omaha
Goalie
Kasimir Kaskisuo, UMD

Preseason Player of the Year: Jonny Brodzinski, St. Cloud State
Preseason Rookie of the Year: Nick Schmaltz, North Dakota

UMD Depth Chart 2014-15

I know. I usually post this in July.

1) I was incredibly busy with real work. 2) I don't have a clue how this is going to turn out.

But I owe it a shot. So here goes.

As usual, these lines and all are nothing more than my opinion. I'll throw in some comments after each position group, as always.

FORWARDS
Kyle Osterberg - Tony Cameranesi - Justin Crandall
Austin Farley - Cal Decowski - Karson Kuhlman
Alex Iafallo - Dominic Toninato - Adam Krause
Charlie Sampair - Jared Thomas - Brett Boehm
Blake Young - Austyn Young - Sammy Spurrell

I opted to keep Cameranesi and Toninato with the linemates they finished last season with, but there are arguments for switching a few guys. Krause is probably the extra pivot, a guy who can play in the middle if there's an injury or someone isn't effective. Thomas is a guy who could move to the wing to make room for Krause if the coaches want to start with more experience down the middle.

Farley could re-crack the top line if he can get back to the production we saw in his freshman year. I know Cameranesi's numbers tailed off, too, but if you watched this team, you'd know he was a very effective player who didn't seem to have any luck around the net. It's not like he wasn't in the right places or doing the right things. If he's healthy, he could conceivably double his point total from last year (21).

Decowski continues, I believe, his steady ascent from "part-time guy" as a freshman. I thought he had a very good season last year, getting a shot to fill in on the second line (Caleb Herbert's line) when Farley was out injured. He's a very smart player who is still developing his offensive skills. There's absolutely more to come from him.

While I concede that the Toninato line is more than a typical "shut down third line," they're really good in that role. There's more this group can do offensively, too. If Krause moves to center, Boehm could be a fit to help in that area. Iafallo is going to be a beast at this level. Probably could argue he already is.

Kuhlman and Boehm should put pressure on the veterans for "top six" roles. As a whole, this forward group is as deep as it's been in some time. You have at least nine or ten guys who could easily argue for top six minutes, including the two aforementioned freshmen.

(There are a lot of interesting combinations, including Sampair - Decowski - Crandall and Farley - Cameranesi - Kuhlman. I'd also like to see Iafallo with Cameranesi at some point, maybe with a guy like Kuhlman on the right side. Whatever combos we see in the exhibition and against the Gophers at the Ice Breaker could completely change by the time we see the Gophers again in November, even if everyone stays healthy and the team is playing well. Scott Sandelin likes the term "work in progress" early in the season, and it'll be just that as the coaches try to find what clicks the best.)

DEFENSEMEN
Carson Soucy - Andy Welinski
Derik Johnson - Willie Raskob
Willie Corrin - Brendan Kotyk
Nick McCormack - Dan Molenaar

Again, I decided to keep the top pair together from a year ago. It just makes sense. I thought they developed a good chemistry, and I like how their styles mesh on the ice. As Soucy becomes more confident and more responsible, it should help Welinski's offensive contributions.

Kotyk is the wild card. He isn't what you picture from a Division III transfer. Eligible to practice last year, he stepped right onto the ice and showed he belonged at this level from the start. A giant at six-foot-six, Kotyk is a good skater for how big he is, and let's face it: This isn't the biggest defensive corps in college hockey. That size could be a huge asset with this group.

Raskob should make a bigger impact offensively this season, and the coaches know Johnson will block any shot he can get to and defend any teammate at any time. Molenaar finished last season healthy and I thought he played well, especially considering how much time he had missed over the last couple years. He's smart as heck with the puck and will challenge for playing time.

GOALIES
Kasimir Kaskisuo - Matt McNeely - Alex Fons

I don't know how this will play out, but I believe Kaskisuo -- who was one of the better goalies in all of junior hockey last season -- will start the opener against the Gophers. That doesn't lock him in for the season by any means, but I don't think he was brought in so he could warm the bench while someone else plays. McNeely has every physical tool in the bag, and though he obviously had his struggles last year, he will be a huge factor if he puts everything together. Fons has played in three games -- starting one -- in two years at UMD. He isn't likely to play much, but his experience and attitude make him a great asset in this group.

High School Hockey Musings: Playoffs Approach

By this time in two weeks, we'll be on the verge of sending teams to the Minnesota State High School Hockey Tournament.

Yes, it happened that fast.

Here are my thoughts on the local sections ahead of the upcoming playoff seeding announcements.

Section 5A
Local teams: Proctor, Moose Lake Area
Top dogs: Chisago Lakes, Princeton, Spring Lake Park

While Proctor hasn't had a great season, the Rails are actually in position for a seed as high as fourth in this section. Wins over Mora/Hinckley-Finlayson and Legacy Christian might be enough to offset a 7-17 overall record and lift Proctor to fourth. Moose Lake Area has five wins after a terrible 2012-13, but I still expect the Rebels to bring up the rear in the seedings.

1. Chisago Lakes
2. Princeton
3. Spring Lake Park
4. Proctor
5. Mora/Hinckley-Finlayson
6. Legacy Christian
7. Providence Academy
8. Pine City/Rush City
9. North Branch
10. Moose Lake Area

Section 7A
Local teams: All
Top dogs: Hermantown, Duluth Marshall

This section could be one of the more entertaining in the state. Hermantown joins this year after the MSHSL re-drew the sections. Those responsible for staging the section tournament have to be thrilled with this. While the Hawks haven't lost a section game and stand as the favorite, they haven't played great down the stretch, with ties against Duluth Denfeld and a Superior team that they beat 8-2 last month.

Of course, the Hawks also haven't lost to a Class A team all season (losses to Grand Rapids, Wayzata, Eagan, and White Bear Lake). So bet against them (figuratively) at your own peril.

Defending champion Duluth Marshall is strong again, and the section has potential darkhorses in Virginia/MIB (9-1-1 in section), Duluth Denfeld (hot lately), and Hibbing (strong defense but must score more).

1. Hermantown
2. Duluth Marshall
3. Virginia/MIB
4. Duluth Denfeld
5. Hibbing
6. North Shore
7. Eveleth-Gilbert
8. Greenway
9. Ely

Section 7AA
Local teams: Duluth East, Grand Rapids, Cloquet/Esko/Carlton
Top dogs: Duluth East, Elk River, Grand Rapids, Forest Lake

We'll save the toughest section to figure out for last.

Duluth East appears to be a lock for No. 1, even though it lost to Elk River and Cloquet/Esko/Carlton, both at home.

The fact the Elks are 3-2 against a limited section schedule doesn't help them here. Grand Rapids has a case for a high seed thanks to a 5-1 section record, but the Thunderhawks haven't helped their cause with losses to Class A foes Denfeld, Marshall, and Virginia. But Grand Rapids beat Elk River.

Forest Lake is 14-6-4 and has some nice out-of-section wins (including Tuesday over White Bear Lake), but the Rangers lost to Rapids and got pasted at home by Duluth East. Andover has been hot lately, but the Huskies lost to East and Forest Lake and split with Elk River. They also have a loss to sub-.500 Robbinsdale Armstrong.

While I'm hesitant to make final decisions based on games played in November and December, there's also a body-of-work component to this bit.

Good luck with this.

1. Duluth East
2. Elk River
3. Grand Rapids
4. Forest Lake
5. Andover
6. St. Michael-Albertville
7. Cloquet/Esko/Carlton
8. St. Francis
9. Cambridge-Isanti

NCHC Preseason Poll: My Votes

Last week, the NCHC posted its inaugural preseason poll, showing Miami on top and UMD sixth. Here's how I voted, with some words on each team.

8. Nebraska Omaha Mavericks

This was tough. I mean, excruciating. But I prioritized a number of things in putting this list together, including scoring balance, defense, and goaltending. I also looked at the fact that UNO appeared to be (again) trending in the wrong direction late last season. The Mavericks went just 3-7 over their last ten games, and two of the wins were over Alaska Anchorage. Also in that span was an exhibition loss to the US Under 18 Team. I don't know what to make of UNO's goaltending, and I just don't think the uber-talented Ryan Walters (Hobey candidate if UNO ends up being better than I'm expecting) and Josh Archibald can score enough to keep the Mavericks out of last place in the NCHC's first season.

7. Colorado College Tigers

If anyone else finishes last in the league, I'd guess it's CC. There's talent here with this group, including the highly underrated Alex Krushelnyski. I think Archie Skalbeck could make a leap this season. CC loses Mike Boivin in the back, however, and I think a lot will end up on the shoulders of freshman Gustav Olofsson (Wild second round pick in 2013) to do things offensively that Boivin (14 goals) did last year. Joe Howe is gone, so the net belongs to Josh Thorimbert for the time being, though he was inconsistent like crazy last year and could get unseated.

6. St. Cloud State Huskies

This was also difficult. There's a ton of scoring talent, with guys like Jonny Brodzinski, Nic Dowd, Kalle Kossila, and youngster Joey Benik, who really emerged in the postseason. Where the Huskies could suffer is the back line, where Nick Jensen departs, leaving Andrew Prochno as the team's top defenseman. He and Kevin Gravel are capable, but the depth isn't as strong here. SCSU was a tough team to figure out, because I do think the experience of last year's Frozen Four run is significant, but the Huskies lost a lot of big-time skill and leadership from that team, and now we'll see if it can be quickly replaced.

5. Denver Pioneers

No more Gwoz means Denver might be slightly less interesting, at least from a reporter's standpoint. But Gwoz doesn't leave a bare cupboard for new bench boss Jim Montgomery. Top recruits like Will Butcher stuck around, and so did senior goalie Sam Brittain, who inherits the No. 1 job for the time being after Juho Olkinuora departed. The Pioneers aren't as deep up front as SCSU, but I think they have more talent on defense and better goaltending. For this Pioneers team, it's going to be all about how they handle the adjustment from Gwozdecky to someone who isn't Gwozdecky.

4. UMD Bulldogs

I believe this team is poised for a rise after a down year. If a No. 1 goalie doesn't emerge, UMD could be in some trouble, but UMD has high-end talent at forward with Tony Cameranesi, Austin Farley, Caleb Herbert, and freshman Dominic Toninato. Andy Welinski is going to be a top defenseman in this new league, and freshman Willie Raskob has a lot of talent. The Bulldogs have to fill some third- and fourth-line holes, but look for this team to display more puck possession, crisper offense, and an improved back line.

3. Western Michigan Broncos

Here's my reach in the poll. The Broncos only scored 87 goals last season, and leading scorer Dane Walters is gone. I'm betting big with this pick on a few things: Chase Balisy becomes a bigger part of the offense, as does Denney Morrison from the blue line; Colton Hargrove emerges as a top-line scoring threat; and Frank Slubowski keeps doing Frank Slubowski things in goal. Andy Murray is a hell of a coach, and it's going to be fun to watch him match wits with guys like Hakstol, Motzko, Sandelin, and Blais on a regular basis.

2. North Dakota

This might be more of a respect vote, because I'm not sure UND has enough defense to win consistently in a tougher league. However, I've wondered this about UND before, and UND's always just fine. North Dakota will do okay this season, too. Rocco Grimaldi will have a huge season, as will Mark MacMillan. There's more than enough talent in the back with guys like Dillon Simpson and Jordan Schmaltz. I do wonder about UND's goaltending, which was shaky at times, but you could do a lot worse than returning two guys who combined for a .916 save percentage.

1. Miami RedHawks

No-brainer, in my view. These polls are impossible, especially with new league alignments, but Miami has the most returning talent in all phases, and it's not like the CCHA was a scrub league last year. Scoring will be balanced, and they have high-end skill guys like Austin Czarnik and Riley Barber back, along with defenseman Matthew Caito and goalies Ryan McKay and Jay Williams. This is a well-coached team that expects to be on top of its league, and I think Miami might be the team to beat, nationally as well as in the NCHC.

2013-14 WCHA Predictions

We'll go league-by-league through the western half of our realigned college hockey nation, starting with the league UMD (and many others) left.

The WCHA might not be as strong as it once was, but it houses at least one legitimate top-15 team, and a couple others that would like to stake a claim.

10. Alabama Huntsville Chargers

Mike Corbett takes over as the Chargers' head coach, and obviously there are high hopes that the move to the WCHA will provide the program with much-needed stability. However, that stability might take some time to show itself on the ice. UAH definitely benefits from no longer living such a nomadic existence, but the Chargers aren't ready to contend in a Division I league just yet. There are some building blocks here, with guys like forward Jeff Vanderlugt back, and UAH is young, so the future certainly is better.

9. Lake Superior State Lakers

It could be a struggle out in Sault Ste. Marie this season. The Lakers lose a lot of high-end guys from a so-so 2012-13 squad, most notably leading scorer Domenic Monardo and runner-up Nick McParland. Their depth was hit by the early departure of power forward Kellan Lain. Senior goalies Kevin Murdock and Kevin Kapalka return, and they might have to carry the team early while it finds some offense.

8. Northern Michigan Wildcats

The Wildcats have to shake off some losses, especially the early departure of goalie Jared Coreau, who could have been a real leader on this team had he not turned pro. Junior forward Reed Seckel can score (13 last year), but who sets him up with Matt Thurber gone? And who plays goal with Coreau and his 38 games gone to the pros? Lots of questions for Walt Kyle to answer as his team starts up in a new league.

7. Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves

New administration and a new coach for UAA, as Matt Thomas takes over for the fired Dave Shyiak. If Thomas can get the culture changed, this could turn around quickly. There is talent, especially with sophomore Blake Tatchell, junior Scott Allen, and senior Matt Bailey up front. Thomas needs to straighten out his blue line and find consistent goaltending. Community support wouldn't hurt, either.

6. Alaska Nanooks

UAF snuck over .500 last year, and wasn't really written out of NCAA contention until late in the season. However, leading scorer Andy Taranto departs. Sophomore goalie John Keeney played 27 games last year and should carry the load again in '13-14. Senior forward Cody Kunyk could be in for a big season.

5. Ferris State Bulldogs

Last year in Florida was my first chance to see Ferris State in person, but these Bulldogs have always impressed me from afar. The chances for veteran coach Bob Daniels' team in the new WCHA depend the development of some young forwards. Seniors Garrett Thompson and Cory Kane return, but they need help from guys like Kenny Babinski and Dakota Klecha to add scoring balance. CJ Motte returns in goal after a strong sophomore season.

4. Bemidji State Beavers

Always a well-coached group, Tom Serratore and the Beavers might benefit greatly from the sport's realignment. BSU just didn't have the talent to consistently compete with the likes of North Dakota, Minnesota, and others (their odd hex on UNO notwithstanding). The Beavers, however, do have the talent and work ethic to make noise in this league. And with junior Andrew Walsh, they have the goalie.

3. Bowling Green Falcons

People in this part of the land might not have noticed, but man has Chris Bergeron done a nice job with this program. The record (39-73-14) is underwhelming, but the Falcons look ready to make some strides. Juniors Ryan Carpenter and Dajon Mingo lead the offense, and the Falcons have experience all over the ice. The one exception is goal, where Andrew Hammond is gone.

2. Michigan Tech Huskies

Mel Pearson should have his best this this season. The Huskies have high-end forwards like Blake Pietila, Alex Petan, Tanner Kero, and David Johnstone all back. The early departure of Jujhar Khaira should only be a small dent in the group. Defense and goaltending lacked last season, but the hope is improved depth between the pipes and further development from defensemen like Riley Sweeney and Justin Fillion should help matters.

1. Minnesota State Mavericks

Even if I wanted to, I'm not sure I could make an argument against MSU being the prohibitive favorite in the WCHA. Mike Hastings got this team to the NCAAs last year, and they're only going to be better. JP Lafontaine, Matt Leitner, Zach Lehrke, Max Gaede, and Bryce Gervais are among the top forwards, and the Mavs sport a strong group of defensemen led by Zach Palmquist. Not only is MSU legit in this league, but the Mavericks should be in most preseason top tens. Justifiably so, too.

2013 NFL Predictions

Federal law requires that all sports blogging types submit NFL season predictions, despite the fact that the NFL becomes more difficult to predict every season.

Look around the eight divisions. There might be some races that "look" like slam dunks, and there are actually a couple that appear to be real-life slam dunks. However, keep a few things in mind:

• In a normal season, there is a playoff turnover of around five teams. In fact, last year broke a 16-year run of there being at least five new teams in the NFL playoffs.
• Every other year since 2007, there has been a six-team turnover in the playoffs. This is the "other" year, so the pattern says there will be six new teams in the tournament.

When you read all the predictions from so-called experts, count the number of "new" teams they put in the playoffs. If it is fewer than four teams turning over from last year to this year, ignore the prediction completely. As MMQB pointed out, more than half the playoff field (61 of 120 teams) has turned over in the last decade.

That's where this becomes difficult. If you aren't picking four teams to turn over, you probably aren't going to be right. But it's often very difficult to find the teams that will miss out to make room.

With all that in mind, here we go on another season of incorrect NFL predictions.

NFC EAST
1. Dallas
2. NY Giants
3. Washington
4. Philadelphia

Romo. Romo. Romo. Romo. Romo. I'm putting my chips to the middle, betting on Tony Romo. Help me. Don't be shocked if Philly jumps Washington. I think Chip Kelly is going to do some things there.

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay
2. Detroit
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago

The Packers are probably the best team in this division, but they better stay healthy. Especially You-Know-Who. Detroit is a darkhorse. Reggie Bush makes an impact. I don't trust Minnesota's quarterback or secondary.

NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans
2. Carolina*
3. Atlanta
4. Tampa Bay

I think Sean Payton and Drew Brees pick up the pieces and have a big year. This isn't a knock on Atlanta, but I think they're old in some key spots and I still think Matt Ryan is a tad overrated.

NFC WEST
1. San Francisco
2. Seattle*
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona

Seattle edges St. Louis for a Wild Card spot, but if the Seahawks don't get healthy at wide receiver, this result could flip. San Fran is still the top dog with the best coach (ugh) in the division.

AFC EAST
1. New England
2. Miami
3. NY Jets
4. Buffalo

Closer than you might think, but the Patriots have too many weapons at this point. Jets edge the Bills in the most compelling third place race in AFC East history.

AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati
2. Cleveland*
3. Baltimore
4. Pittsburgh

What? Yes. Bengals are ready to assume the perch. Browns will shock the world, while the Ravens suffered too many offseason departures to be a playoff team again. Don't fret. They'll be back shortly.

AFC SOUTH
1. Houston
2. Indianapolis
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville

Ugly. Houston could clinch this in Week 11. Colts can't repeat last year's magic.

AFC WEST
1. Denver
2. Kansas City*
3. San Diego
4. Oakland

Easiest division to pick, which means this will be horribly wrong somehow. Kansas City was remarkably unlucky last year, and Andy Reid will make sure that doesn't repeat itself.

PLAYOFFS
NFC
1. New Orleans
2. San Francisco
3. Dallas
4. Green Bay
5. Carolina
6. Seattle

WILD CARD
Seattle over Dallas
Carolina over Green Bay
DIVISIONAL
New Orleans over Carolina
San Francisco over Seattle
CHAMPIONSHIP
New Orleans over San Francisco

AFC
1. Houston
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Kansas City
6. Cleveland

WILD CARD
Cincinnati over Cleveland
New England over Kansas City
DIVISIONAL
Cincinnati over Denver
Houston over New England
CHAMPIONSHIP
Houston over Cincinnati

SUPER BOWL
New Orleans over Houston

2013 NHL Season Predictions

I'm sure this will go well, eh? It always does.

My division winners, Stanley Cup pick, and awards picks posted on SB Nation Friday. Here are the rest of my guesses on a season that is sure to be exciting to watch. As much as the shortened season was a win for the NBA last season, I believe firmly that the NHL can win here, if it plays its cards right.

And, yes, that's a big "if."

Anyway, here are full division and conference predictions, so it's all on the record for when I'm wrong.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
1. Pittsburgh
2. NY Rangers
3. Philadelphia
4. New Jersey
5. NY Islanders

This is very much contingent on Sid being healthy, as well as Marc-Andre Fleury regaining some semblance of confidence after it looked like Philly shattered most of it in last year's playoff series. I like this Rangers team, but I don't trust this Rangers team. As Barry Melrose said on ESPN Friday, there are no excuses now. They have everything they've asked for there. The Flyers need goaltending to be a serious contender. The Devils have to replace a lot of goals lost, and didn't sign anyone to do it, while the Islanders ... um, yeah. They have John Tavares.

Northeast Division
1. Boston
2. Buffalo
3. Ottawa
4. Toronto
5. Montreal

The Bruins look made for a short season, provided Tuukka Rask can take over capably for Tim Thomas in goal. Thomas' departure also makes Boston a much more likable team. The Sabres will ride Ryan Miller to the playoffs, while I think the Senators have a real chance to sneak in. Ottawa does better if Craig Anderson does it again. I just don't know that the Sens have enough to make a run again this year. The Maple Leafs and Canadiens look positively wretched.

Southeast Division
1. Washington
2. Florida
3. Carolina
4. Winnipeg
5. Tampa Bay

First-year coach Adam Oates looks to reinvigorate Alex Ovechkin, who admitted he didn't exactly enjoy himself last season. It'll be an interesting battle with the defending division champion Panthers, along with Carolina and Winnipeg, both of which should be improved. The Hurricanes added Jordan Staal, while the Jets didn't make a lot of moves but will instead be improved. Don't count Tampa Bay out, either, but I don't think the Lightning are strong enough defensively.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
1. St. Louis
2. Chicago
3. Nashville
4. Detroit
5. Columbus

There are potential issues with the Blues. For starters, they won a lot of low-scoring games. They also won a ton against the East, a conference they don't play a single game against in a shortened season. But Ken Hitchcock has skill, toughness, and grit up front, along with great defense and tandem goaltending. Chicago contends if Corey Crawford holds up, but that's not a given. I think the loss of Ryan Suter will do more damage to Nashville than losing Shea Weber would have. But that could just be an overly-optimistic Wild fan talking. Detroit better score tons of goals. Columbus, ah, yeah.

Northwest Division
1. Minnesota
2. Vancouver
3. Edmonton
4. Colorado
5. Calgary

Call me crazy, but the Wild made some really good moves, not even including signing Suter and Zach Parise. Suter is huge because of the impact he'll make on the blue line. Don't forget the signings of Zenon Konopka and Torrey Mitchell, or the addition of stud center Mikael Granlund. No knock on Vancouver, because this should be a hell of a division race. Cory Schneider makes an impact as the No. 1 goalie. The young guns in Edmonton will be ready to go after a half-season of seasoning in the AHL. Look for a fast start there. The Avalanche will continue to improve, while I think the Flames will drop off a bit this year. Change could be coming to that roster.

Pacific Division
1. San Jose
2. Los Angeles
3. Dallas
4. Phoenix
5. Anaheim

LA is the hot pick here, but I'm taking the Sharks, who have scoring depth, defense, and a determined goalie in Antti Niemi. The Kings will nip at their heels if they don't beat them out. Dallas will surge ahead if Jamie Benn signs quickly, which he should. Who will score for Phoenix? It's a question that sounds familiar, but at some point we will run out of answers. The Ducks are a mess in many phases, but there is star power here, and if their heads are right, the team should improve.

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
1. Boston
2. Washington
3. Pittsburgh
4. NY Rangers
5. Buffalo
6. Philadelphia
7. Florida
8. Carolina
9. New Jersey
10. Winnipeg
11. Ottawa
12. Tampa Bay
13. Toronto
14. NY Islanders
15. Montreal

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
1. St. Louis
2. San Jose
3. Minnesota
4. Los Angeles
5. Vancouver
6. Chicago
7. Dallas
8. Edmonton
9. Nashville
10. Detroit
11. Colorado
12. Phoenix
13. Anaheim
14. Calgary
15. Columbus

EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPION
Pittsburgh
WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPION
St. Louis
STANLEY CUP CHAMPION
Pittsburgh

2012 NFL Predictions Sure To Be Bad

I posted these on Twitter earlier in the week, but I figured I'd expand on it. I'm not big on making week-by-week predictions on the blog anymore, but you can follow me for the occasional pick and plenty of bad jokes and snark.

Here are my division picks, with some commentary.

NFC EAST
1. NY Giants
2. Philadelphia
3. Dallas
4. Washington

The Giants are still the best. The Eagles are not far behind, and I think without the ridiculous hype surrounding them, they will improve. Dallas showed me something Wednesday, but Tony Romo hasn't really put it together since the 2007 season when they had TO, and even that team flamed out when it counted the most. Love RG3, but I don't think he makes Washington a contender right away.

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota

Sorry, everyone, but the Packers still have to be considered the division favorites. An improved defense makes them a more complete team, but unless Cedric Benson works miracles in the backfield, they won't approach 15-1. Chicago needs to show the secondary it will take to slow down the Packers and Lions. The Lions have to keep their heads straight and play defense. Minnesota is better, and could make a run for third place if Detroit falters. But the Vikings aren't nearly as talented as their division brethren right now.

NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans
2. Carolina
3. Atlanta
4. Tampa Bay

Bounty scandal or not, the Saints are the best team in this division. Definite Super Bowl threat. Carolina's defense is a huge key for the Panthers. The pieces exist on offense. Atlanta is highly overrated by many. There's just no reason to trust Mike Smith or Matt Ryan at this point. If Josh Freeman puts things together, Tampa Bay could surprise with new coach Greg Schiano, who did an amazing job as a college coach at Rutgers.

NFC WEST
1. St. Louis
2. San Francisco
3. Seattle
4. Arizona

It's a hunch, pure and simple. Jeff Fisher, an improved secondary, and a healthy Sam Bradford should mean good things for the Rams, despite an insane roster turnover. San Francisco takes a step back because Alex Smith is still Alex Smith. The 49ers weren't evaluating Peyton Manning for no reason. Seattle has a rookie at quarterback in Russell Wilson. I love Wilson, but his targets are shaky, as is the defense. Arizona won't be any good until the quarterback problem is dealt with.

NFC SEEDS
1. NY Giants
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. St. Louis
5. Chicago
6. Philadelphia

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Green Bay over NY Giants

AFC EAST
1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. NY Jets
4. Miami

While the Patriots still don't have a good defense, it's good enough. It isn't as good as Buffalo's, and that's why the Bills pass the Jets in the standings. The Jets just have too much drama and not enough skill talent around Mark Sanchez. As anyone who gets HBO can attest, the Dolphins just don't look to be any good.

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Cleveland

The Ravens are running a no-huddle, which means Joe Flacco better be good. I like his chances. Pittsburgh wants to run the ball, and the Steelers are counting on a healthy Rashard Mendenhall, something that might be too much to ask for at this point. The Bengals will slide back a bit, and the Browns will move forward, making for a really, really interesting Battle of Ohio for third place. Oh, wait.

AFC SOUTH
1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Indianapolis
4. Jacksonville

I expect the Texans to roll through this division, with only a small challenge from the Titans. Tennessee needs Jake Locker to be ready, but luckily he can give the rock to Chris Johnson. The Colts will surprise, but don't have enough horses -- no pun intended -- to contend for a playoff spot. Jacksonville is in flux, with a running back who held out and a quarterback who looked completely overwhelmed last year.

AFC WEST
1. Denver
2. San Diego
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland

All four were close last year, and I think the top three will be this time around. Was a tough pick, but I went with the team that has the best quarterback. So yeah, I'm banking on Peyton Manning being healthier than some allege he is. The Chargers will be improved and could sneak into the playoffs. We remember how bad Romeo Crennel's teams looked in Cleveland, right? Well, I don't see it getting much better in Kansas City just because he's a nicer guy than Todd Haley. Oh, and as much as I've grown to really like the Raiders, this isn't going to go well in the short term.

AFC SEEDS
1. Baltimore
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Denver
5. Buffalo
6. Pittsburgh

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Baltimore over Houston

2012 NHL Playoff Predictions

You'll see my picks round by round at SBNation, and the round one picks you see below will be there later Wednesday.

In the meantime, here is my look at the opening round, followed by one person's stab at the rest of the playoffs.

I was going to let my son post his picks on here, but he's just picking Detroit. No drama there.

WESTERN
FIRST ROUND
Los Angeles vs. Vancouver
If I were a Canucks fan, I'd be a little bit frightened at the Kings' ability to play a gritty style, coupled with their strong goaltending. Of course, that doesn't change the fact that Vancouver has the deeper forward lines and is capable of playing good defense. The Canucks are No. 1 for a reason, and their flaws won't be exposed in this series. Vancouver in 6.

San Jose vs. St. Louis
The Blues have done a great job simply following the orders of Ken Hitchcock behind the bench. The Sharks, meanwhile, seemed to take a step backward this season. A once-potent offense isn't nearly as good as it was, and the Sharks have still shown a propensity for getting outworked that will kill them against an opponent like this. St. Louis in 6.

Chicago vs. Phoenix
For the first time in franchise history, the Coyotes are a division champion. Phoenix has home ice advantage in this series, but it probably isn't going to help much. For starters, expect plenty of Blackhawk support in the desert. Oh, and Chicago's better. Chicago in 6.

Detroit vs. Nashville
If last year didn't do it, this series should make you fall in love with the hockey market that is Nashville. Those folks are bonkers for their Predators. On the ice, look for a fantastic, competitive, and potentially truculent series that could go the distance. Nashville in 7.

ROUND TWO
Chicago over Vancouver in 7 
Nashville over St. Louis in 7

CONFERENCE FINAL
Chicago over Nashville in 6

EASTERN
ROUND ONE
Ottawa vs. N.Y. Rangers
I know the Rangers lost three of the four games between these two teams during the regular season. I don't care. The Rangers look like a team built for a long run, with strong goaltending, a tough defense, and plenty of two-way forwards. New York in 5.

Washington vs. Boston
Since Bruce Boudreau led the Capitals' surge back into relevance a few years ago, Washington has owned home-ice advantage in every playoff series it has played, until this one. Perhaps this is the ticket for a Capitals team that seemed to get better late in the season. Boston has played a lot of hockey lately, and we know how hard it is to defend the Cup. Washington in 7.

New Jersey vs. Florida
Everyone wants to make fun of the Panthers for winning a bad division. Whatever. They're in, and what hardcore fans they have in South Florida have to be juiced for this. Expect low-scoring games, but I have to go with the team that has the best players in the series (Kovalchuk, Parise, Brodeur). New Jersey in 7.

Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
This is the main event. Pittsburgh's deep offense against a Philadelphia team that will be desperate to knock the Penguins off their game. If Pittsburgh's skill guys avoid the extracurricular garbage and just play, I don't see how they lose, barring a Marc-Andre Fleury meltdown. Pittsburgh in 6.

ROUND TWO
Pittsburgh over NY Rangers in 6
Washington over New Jersey in 6

CONFERENCE FINAL
Pittsburgh over Washington in 7

STANLEY CUP FINAL
Pittsburgh over Chicago in 7

2011-12 NHL Season Predictions

I've never been happier to see hockey season start. The tragedies of the summer didn't hit home for the college hockey universe as much, but they hit home for those of us who have grown to really appreciate this sport and what makes it great at all levels.

As we get set for Thursday's season openers -- as well as Justin Faulk's NHL debut Friday, the Wild season opener Saturday, and Sunday's celebration in Winnipeg -- here is a look at a few things that make this season tough to predict.

Someone from the Pacific Division will be pretty good and miss the playoffs

A division largely dominated in recent years by San Jose will be ridiculously competitive this year. Reigning Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry leads the Ducks, who should have the services of Ryan Getzlaf for the full season. Anaheim also benefits from the return of Jonas Hiller in goal. But is their forward depth and defense enough?

Los Angeles has some amazing young players, but do they have enough goaltending, consistency, and leadership to make a Cup run?

It's easy to forget Phoenix now that Ilya Bryzgalov is gone, but he wasn't terribly consistent during the the last two regular seasons, and they found ways to win and compile 100 points anyway.

And Dallas will be better, even without Brad Richards, as their young kids round into better form.

Vancouver won't dominate the Northwest like it did a year ago

Not sure what this will ultimately mean to the playoff picture, but I just don't see a banged-up and possibly not-as-good Canucks team blowing through this division again. Minnesota, Edmonton, and Calgary are all better, and Colorado picked up a significant piece to help its goaltending.

I don't think any of these teams can say it's positioned to make a serious run at the Canucks, but they will close the collective gap enough to make Vancouver sweat for the top seed in the conference, something none of them were capable of doing a year ago.

The Southeast Division will keep getting better

Last year, Tampa Bay and champion Washington made the playoffs, and then the Lightning pantsed the favored Capitals in the playoffs. What might be forgotten is that Carolina barely missed out on a spot, and the Hurricanes will be a team to watch for a potential breakthrough this year.

They still have Staal, Ward, Pitkanen, and Skinner. Throw in some dynamic young players, and you have a dangerous team. If Faulk can help solidify the defense and the second power play, look out.

The team I'm intrigued by is Florida. I don't think they have enough there to be a playoff team, but Dale Tallon signed some high-character players who can play at a high level. I just don't know that the Panthers have enough front-line talent to contend.

I have more questions and lots of thoughts, so follow on Twitter for that stream of consciousness. Since I have a job to tend to (game Friday!!!), here are the picks. They weren't drawn out of a hat, but I fully acknowledge I'm probably wrong about a lot of this.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
1. Detroit
2. Chicago
3. St. Louis
4. Columbus
5. Nashville

Northwest Division
1. Vancouver
2. Minnesota
3. Calgary
4. Edmonton
5. Colorado

Pacific Division
1. San Jose
2. Anaheim
3. Los Angeles
4. Dallas
5. Phoenix

In the playoffs ...
1. Detroit
2. Vancouver
3. San Jose
4. Chicago
5. Anaheim
6. Los Angeles
7. St. Louis
8. Minnesota

... not
9. Calgary
10. Edmonton
11. Columbus
12. Nashville
13. Dallas
14. Colorado
15. Phoenix

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
1. Pittsburgh
2. Philadelphia
3. New Jersey
4. N.Y. Rangers
5. N.Y. Islanders

Northeast Division
1. Buffalo
2. Boston
3. Montreal
4. Toronto
5. Ottawa

Southeast Division
1. Washington
2. Carolina
3. Tampa Bay
4. Florida
5. Winnipeg

In the playoffs ...
1. Washington
2. Pittsburgh
3. Buffalo
4. Philadelphia
5. Boston
6. Montreal
7. Carolina
8. Tampa Bay

... not
9. Toronto
10. New Jersey
11. Florida
12. N.Y. Rangers
13. N.Y. Islanders
14. Winnipeg
15. Ottawa

Stanley Cup Finals
Detroit over Buffalo

2011 College Football Preview: Big Ten

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Predicted Order of Finish
Leaders Division
1. Wisconsin
2. Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Ohio State
5. Purdue
6. Indiana
Legends Division
1. Nebraska
2. Michigan State
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota

Top Storylines in the Big Ten

Nebraska brings league title game, bad division names, instant contender. Welcome, Nebraska. Before you've won a Big Ten game, you have a target on your back. You have the label of "favorite." That's what happens when you have a defense with guys like tackle Jared Crick, end Cameron Meredith, and cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, and a young quarterback like Taylor Martinez. Yeah, Bo Pelini has to replace some offensive pieces like Roy Helu and Niles Paul, but the Cornhuskers walk into the Big Ten as a team capable of contending for the national championship. Martinez was up and down as a freshman, but he got through a sometimes-rough first year and helped lead his team to a ten-win season. Nebraska will keep with the run-first offense, with Martinez and junior back Rex Burkhead leading the charge. It's the kind of addition a league makes and is really happy with in hindsight. There is a buzz around this league that hasn't existed for a while, and it distracts people from the goings-on at tOSU.

How Russell Wilson's inability to hit changed the Big Ten race. To put it bluntly, Wilson created a new contender for the national championship by transferring to Wisconsin. The Badgers return two top running backs, an experienced senior receiver, and they possess one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Gabe Carimi is gone, but center Peter Konz and left tackle Ricky Wagner both return. Six starters return on defense, but they also bring back middle linebacker Chris Borland, a medical redshirt last year. Senior Aaron Henry is the leader in the secondary, and junior Mike Taylor will make plays at outside linebacker. But the story is Wilson. The former All-ACC quarterback solidifies the only major question mark Wisconsin had, as sophomore Jon Budmayr didn't look ready to step into Scott Tolzien's shoes. The Badgers don't play a true road game until Oct. 22 (Michigan State), and they open the league schedule Oct. 1 at home against Nebraska, the toughest game on their slate. Bret Bielema has matured as a coach, to the point that he is no longer a detriment to a program that has the look of a serious BCS contender.

What's left of Ohio State is still good. No more Terrelle Pryor. No more Sweatervest. Ross Homan and Devon Torrence are among those gone from the defense. Suspensions have sapped the team's depth for the first five games of the season. But Ohio State is still dangerous. Joe Bauserman takes over at quarterback, and he has plenty of weapons with the likes of Rod Smith and Jaamal Berry, and Dan Herron will be around after his suspension is served. The Buckeyes can catch, block, run, and will still play good defense. The key will be surviving the suspensions of guys like Herron and DeVier Posey, and then surviving road games against Nebraska, Illinois, and Michigan, along with home dates against Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. It's a tough draw this year, and a somewhat-gutted Ohio State team might not be its old self as a result. But they're still good.

Jerry Kill era opens with no promises or insane bluster. Unlike his predecessor, new Minnesota coach Jerry Kill doesn't feel the need to talk about what the Gophers are going to do. Instead, he's working to rebuild a program that was once a perennial bowl contender, but has gone 17-33 in the last four years. The Gophers have some talent, especially on the defense, for Kill to work with. But he acknowledges that this is a long-haul project, and not one that will carry a lot of short-term victory. For now, this team will work with what is there. On defense, guys like Kim Royston, Troy Stoudermire, and Brandon Kirksey have to make a leap as individuals for the team to truly improve. Offensively, it's on the broad shoulders of junior MarQueis Gray, a prized Tim Brewster recruit who was moved to receiver last year and caught 42 passes while Adam Weber finished his Gopher career as the school's all-time leading passer. Gray has an arm, but he's untested at that position at this level. The Big Ten schedule is a bear, with the most winnable games (Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern) all on the road.

The Rest of the Story

Joe Paterno has 14 starters back for his 46th year as Penn State coach. The Nittany Lions might not be BCS material, but they are good enough to make a second-tier bowl and perhaps pull an upset or two in league play. ... Lots of hope around this Illinois team, with sophomore Nathan Scheelhaase back along with leading receiver A.J. Jenkins. The offense was good last year, and should be even better this year. ... I think Purdue is going to improve this year, as Danny Hope enters his third season as head coach. I'm just not sure how far up the Leaders Division standings they can get, especially with some uncertainty at quarterback. ... Former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson takes over at Indiana, and his first job is to replace Ben Chappell, the school's No. 2 all-time passer. There are some pieces in place, but Wilson has a lot of work ahead. ... Senior quarterback Kirk Cousins and junior back Edwin Baker lead the way for Michigan State, a team largely forgotten in the Legends Division thanks to Nebraska, but one that is extremely talented and very much a title threat. ... Quarterback Dan Persa's health is a significant question for Northwestern, but once he's good to go, the Wildcats have one of the better offenses in the league. ... The Brady Hoke era starts at Michigan, and hopes are high it won't be the disaster that the Rich Rodriguez era was. The Wolverines return star quarterback Denard Robinson, leading receiver Ray Roundtree, running backs Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith, and seven starters on defense. Then again, given how bad the defense was last year, seven returning starters might not be a good thing. ... If junior James Vandenburg can lead the offense and get the ball in the hands of receiver Marvin McNutt, Iowa will be good enough to win eight or nine games again this season.

2011 College Football Preview: WAC

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Fresno State
2. Nevada
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Hawai'i
5. Utah State
6. Idaho
7. San Jose State
8. New Mexico State

Top Storylines in the WAC

Parity at the top, but Fresno will climb the mountain. If there's a benefit to Boise State bolting for the Mountain West, it's that the top of the WAC is as wide-open as it's been in years. I think Fresno State and Nevada are a bit ahead of the rest, but I could be completely off my rocker. No matter what, I expect the WAC to be won by a team that won't be in the league next season (Fresno, Nevada, and Hawai'i all join the Mountain West). Fresno State only returns ten starters, but among them is junior running back Robbie Rouse, who topped 1,100 yards and at least flashed some brilliance in his effort to replace the largely-irreplaceable Ryan Mathews. Derek Carr, younger brother of former Fresno State star David, should take over the offense for the Bulldogs, and I expect he will do many of the things his brother was famous for in college. Pat Hill's defense has struggled for a few years, but senior tackle Logan Harrell and junior linebacker Travis Brown should both be stars as part of a resurgent unit this year. Nevada loses Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua, along with sack leader Dontay Moch. The Wolf Pack start senior Tyler Lantrip at quarterback, and they have Lampford Mark and Mike Bell at running back, along with seven starters back on defense. They went 13-1 last year, and that probably won't happen again, but there's plenty of reason for hope in Reno.

Another stud quarterback at Hawai'i. He needs nearly 10,000 yards to pass Timmy Chang, and some 6,500 to reach Colt Brennan, but Bryant Moniz is the latest in a long line of big arms to lead the Hawai'i offense. Moniz topped 5,000 yards passing last year, with nearly 40 passing touchdowns, as the Warriors won ten games, including handing Nevada its only loss of the season. The Warriors have Moniz, but little else, back on the offensive side, but Hawai'i is known for quickly reloading. Left tackle Austin Hansen anchors the line, and senior receiver Royce Pollard returns. JUCO transfer Darius Bright will be a main target for Moniz, too. The Warriors have gotten progressively better on defense since 2005, and that should continue this season, thanks to guys like linebacker Corey Paredes and tackles Vaughn Meatoga and Kaniela Tuipolotu. Hawai'i's schedule features Louisiana Tech and Nevada on the road, so its final WAC slate isn't an easy one.

The Rest of the Story

Louisiana Tech is the best hope among the non-leaving teams to win the WAC. The Bulldogs need to settle on a quarterback, but they should be competitive on defense and along both lines. ... Diondre Borel departs, but Utah State gets star running back Robert Turbin back from a torn ACL, and junior receiver Stanley Morrison -- the team's leading receiver in 2009 -- is back off a medical redshirt. ... Idaho narrowly missed out on a bowl game last year after winning the Humanitarian Bowl in 2009, and now the Vandals have to replace four-year starting quarterback Nathan Enderle. Senior Brian Reader has played the position a bit, and eight starters return on defense. ... A 1-12 season hasn't stopped Mike MacIntyre from continuing his work at San Jose State. The Spartans get 18 starters back, because MacIntyre played a ton of freshmen last year. He paid for it with a bad record, but this is going to be a good team very soon. ... Back-to-back ten-loss seasons at New Mexico State should be followed by a better team this season. DeWayne Walker has 16 starters back, and he hit the JUCO ranks hard for talent, but the Aggies still are likely to finish last.

2011 College Football Preview: Sun Belt

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Florida International
2. Troy
3. Louisiana-Monroe
4. Arkansas State
5. Middle Tennessee State
6. North Texas
7. Florida Atlantic
8. Western Kentucky

Top Storylines to Watch in the Sun Belt

The rise of FIU. In 2006 and 2007, Florida International combined for one win in 24 games. The Golden Panthers lost 17 of those 23 games by at least ten points. 2007, though, started the Mario Cristobal era, and the former Miami tight ends and offensive line coach has turned the FIU program around very quickly. Last year, FIU went 7-6, advancing to a bowl game for the first time in their short FBS history. A team that couldn't matriculate the ball down the field for three years finally fielded a passable offensive attack last season, averaging nearly 400 yards and 30 points per game. Reigning league player of the year T.Y. Hilton is back, as is senior quarterback Wesley Carroll. Senior running back Darriet Perry returns after scoring 16 touchdowns a year ago. The Golden Panthers have seven starters back on defense, including leading tackler Jonathan Cyprien, who was first-team All-Sun Belt last year. For once, FIU doesn't have a BCS tour of doom this year, with Louisville the only team from an AQ league on the schedule ... and that's a winnable game. Cristobal's team could win nine or ten games if things go right this year.

Troy stays consistent. Since a 4-7 hiccup in 2005, Troy has been the most consistent team in the league. The Trojans have won 41 games over the last five seasons, including two bowl wins and a win over Big 12 member Oklahoma State in 2007. This year, Troy has eight starters back on a defense that was uneven for most of last year. They'll look to linebacker Xavier Lamb, cornerback Jimmie Anderson, and safety Brynden Trawick to lead the way this year. Corey Robinson earned the starting quarterback job as a freshman last year, and he thrived for the most part, throwing for over 3,700 yards. The offense needs more out of junior back Shawn Southward, but Robinson will improve as he becomes more of a leader and more experienced in the offense. A road game at FIU in late October will probably decide the league title.

Can Arkansas State break through? After another disappointing season under Steve Roberts, the school decided to make a coaching change. The Red Wolves didn't look far to replace Roberts, as they hired offensive coordinator Hugh Freeze to take over the program. ASU will continue the transition to a pass-happy attack under Freeze, one that set a school FBS record with 30 points per game last year (joined FCS in 1992). He has the right quarterback in Ryan Aplin, a dual-threat who totaled 32 touchdowns last year (21 pass), and he will improve on his 61.5 percent completions in his second year as the starter. His top three targets are back, and the Red Wolves have seven starters back on defense. Arkansas State has to play early-season games at Illinois and Virginia Tech, but they get FIU and Troy at home in league play and could be a threat.

Dan McCarney lands in Denton. After former high-school coach Todd Dodge bombed, North Texas took a safe route with its latest coaching hire. Former Iowa State head coach Dan McCarney, a longtime defensive coach, got the job. Expect immediate improvement in many areas, including a defense that made strides last year and returns seven starters. Dodge's spread offense never caught on, largely because the Mean Green had too many issues with injuries at quarterback. The offense won't change much, as coordinator Mike Canales was retained. Sophomore quarterback Derek Thompson returns after his 2010 was ruined by injuries. If the transition is as smooth as expected, the Mean Green could christen their new stadium with a bowl-eligible campaign.

The Rest of the Story

17 starters return for Louisiana-Monroe, and the Warhawks could contend for the league title. Quarterback Kolton Browning played like a freshman at times last year, which made sense because he was a freshman. With so many pieces back, Browning is looking to have a huge season. ... A largely disappointing season ended poorly for Middle Tennessee last year, as the Blue Raiders fell to Miami in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. MTSU loses eight starters on defense, and projects to start a lot of freshmen and sophomores there. It could be a tough season ... Howard Schnellenberger's last season at Florida Atlantic features a new stadium, which the Owls will open against Western Kentucky after a five-game road swing to start the season. FAU won only four times last year, but could improve if the coaches can find a comfort zone with a starting quarterback. ... It's been a struggle for Western Kentucky since joining the FBS, but Willie Taggart has things pointed in the right direction. The Hilltoppers won twice last season in Taggart's first year, but return 15 starters and have a more manageable schedule. Four or five wins might not be out of reach for WKU.

2011 College Football Preview: SEC

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
Predicted Order of Finish
East Division
1. South Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Tennessee
4. Florida
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt
West Division
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. Auburn
6. Mississippi

Top Storylines to Watch in the SEC

Whose year is it this time? Lately, there's no doubt the SEC has dominated college football. Whether it's Florida, Alabama, LSU, or Auburn, the conference has owned the big games in the sport, and it will probably continue to, even if rumors of expansion end up unfounded. This year, it appears the West is best again, as Alabama and LSU (before players ran into trouble in the final days before the season starts) look like favorites in the national championship picture, and it's not like Auburn is going to stink in its title defense. I have to go with Alabama, with Trent Richardson running the ball and hopefully staying healthy this season. The Tide have sophomore AJ McCarron at quarterback now, but expect him to be just as solid and efficient as Greg McElroy was. Throw in that defense, one that includes studs like Dont'a Hightower, CJ Mosley, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Dee Milliner, and it makes sense that a team breaking in a new quarterback could be favored.

As for LSU ... News as I was writing this post that LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson and a teammate have allegedly run afoul of the law doesn't help the Tigers' cause in the West. Neither does the tough break dealt to offensive coordinator Steve Kragthorpe, who has been diagnosed with Parkinson's. For LSU to succeed -- assuming Jefferson doesn't skate on whatever charges end up being filed -- they obviously have to find a new quarterback. Jefferson was often the object of scorn from the fans over his uneven play, but he was starting because he was the Tigers' best option. Now, we'll see if Jarrett Lee or Zach Mettenberger can take over and get the job done. It's not like LSU has a layup of an opener. They play Oregon at a neutral site. So right out of the chute, the quarterback situation will be emphatically tested, and their national championship hopes could disappear quickly if things don't go well.

Auburn's title defense will probably not go wonderfully. The Tigers picked a good time to win a national title, because this team was decimated by departures and graduation. Look for running back Michael Dyer to shoulder a huge load in the offense, coming off a 1,000-yard season as a true freshman. No Cam Newton means Barrett Trotter is likely to run the Tigers' offense. Trotter isn't as big or athletic, but he can throw, and he's no slouch running the ball. Just with the missing pieces (eight starters gone on each side of the ball), it's going to be tough for Auburn to repeat last year's run. A schedule that features roadies to Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia probably makes it impossible. Auburn should be a bowl team, so they won't repeat Texas' fall from the title game to 5-7, but they aren't going to be a BCS bowl team, it doesn't appear.

What will Charlie Weis' impact be at Florida? The former Notre Dame coach takes over the Gators' offense under new head coach Will Muschamp. While it didn't exactly crash in the first year post-Tebow, Florida wasn't nearly as good in 2010. They dropped 100 yards and a touchdown per game off their 2009 averages, with the yardage losses split between rushing and passing (the passing game took a slightly bigger hit). Seniors John Brantley and Jeff Demps will man the backfield again, and with Weis on board, it seems this offense will transition to more of a pro-style attack. Throw that change in with only ten returning starters and Muschamp's lack of head-coaching experience, and you have the recipe for a tough season in Gainesville. Florida has highly-touted players all over, but they need to replace four offensive line starters and three defensive line starters. Muschamp has four winnable games in September, but October starts with a visit from Alabama, and it doesn't get much easier from there.

The Rest of the Story

I'm not sure if Stephen Garcia can stay out of trouble long enough, but I know that South Carolina is the best team in the SEC East. The Gamecocks have come a long way the last year or so, and a lot of it is due to recruiting. Steve Spurrier got a huge contribution out of true freshman back Marcus Lattimore last year, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is poised to do that this year. ... Georgia could be a real darkhorse contender. The Bulldogs have talent all over the field, some potential impact freshmen, and a schedule that features the toughest games -- South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Auburn -- at home, with Florida in Jacksonville as usual. Isaish Crowell could be this year's Lattimore. ... Tennessee hasn't been good in a while, but they'll make a positive stride this season. 13 starters return, Derek Dooley appears to have his quarterback in Tyler Bray, and the Volunteers play five of six at home to start the season. I don't see them being nearly good enough to challenge South Carolina or Georgia, but they'll improve. ... If you're looking for a potential sleeper, don't discount Kentucky. The Wildcats lose starting quarterback Mike Hartline and ten-touchdown back Derrick Locke, but return ten starters to a defense that was pretty good a year ago. That defense stands to improve dramatically. It starts up front, where they're experienced, but still a tad young. ... I expect that new coach James Franklin will do a good job with the Vanderbilt program, but I don't think it will be instant gratification. The Commodores were a mess last year, and while they have a ton of experience with 19 starters, it will take time to adjust. ... I like this Arkansas team, but they'll miss Ryan Mallett at quarterback. The loss of running back Knile Davis to an injury is devastating, too. We'll see what Bobby Petrino can do with junior quarterback Tyler Wilson. ... It was nice to see Dan Mullen get Mississippi State to a bowl last year, and it seems they have a good-enough team to get to one again. But how good will they be? They'll miss Chris White on defense and Derrick Sherrod on the offensive line, and it doesn't help them that a road game at Auburn and a home date with LSU are on the docket in the first three weeks. ... Despite the presence of transfer quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, last season was a disaster at Mississippi. The Rebels went 4-8, only 1-7 in league play, and allowed 35 points per game. Now, Houston Nutt has to replace seven defensive starters, and he has to find a new quarterback. In the SEC, this doesn't sound like a road map to a bowl.

2011 College Football Preview: Pac 12

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

PAC 12 CONFERENCE
Predicted Order of Finish
North Division
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. California
6. Washington State
South Division
1. Arizona State
2. USC
3. Utah
4. UCLA
5. Arizona
6. Colorado

Top Storylines to Watch in Pac 12

Lots of newness. There are two new teams. New divisions. New league name. Lots of excitement in the Pac 12 over everything that happened this summer. Newcomers Utah and Colorado stand to experience slightly different fortunes in their first years. Utah has 12 starters back, lots of stability with seventh-year coach Kyle Whittingham, and a new offensive coordinator in Norm Chow who knows a thing or two about this conference. Junior quarterback Jordan Wynn is joined in the backfield by freshman running back Harvey Langi, who should make an impact along with junior John White, a junior college transfer. Colorado has 16 starters back, but new coach Jon Embree has quite a lot of work to do in rebuilding a program that hasn't made a bowl since 2007, and hasn't played in a major bowl since 2001. The Buffaloes were 5-7 in Dan Hawkins' last season, and unless senior quarterback Tyler Hansen takes better care of the ball and stays healthy, CU will struggle in the transition.

Oregon reloads. After a run to the BCS title game, the Ducks return only 11 starters, including just five on a defense that played much better most of the season than it was given credit for. I expect Oregon to ride their offense a bit this year. Quarterback Darron Thomas returns, as does running back LaMichael James. Thomas is only going to develop better passing skills with more experience, and James is coming off a 1,700-yard, 21-touchdown season. There's a lot of talent in that backfield, and while Auburn did a great job slowing the Ducks' frenetic pace, Thomas made a few plays in the passing game to keep them alive in the game. On defense, the Ducks allowed 519 yards to Auburn, and it might get worse this year without Casey Matthews and Talmadge Jackson. That Nov. 12 game at Stanford will be a doozy.

Luck's shocking return leads to ... With a new coach on board (David Shaw replaces Jim Harbaugh), and half the starters gone, this could be a rebuilding year for Stanford. Of course, Andrew Luck's decision to return changes all that. Leading receivers Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whalen are gone, but running back Stepfan Taylor is back, and Luck still has incredible ability. How will Luck build off last year (70 percent completions, 3,300 yards, 32 touchdowns, only eight picks)? He's going to get better, and he's going to be in the Heisman chase. With defensive leaders Shayne Skov, Chase Thomas, and Delano Howell all back, the Cardinal could be even better on defense than they were a year ago, when they slowed virtually everyone but Oregon and USC. And Luck will be in New York when the Heisman gets handed out.

Another step at ASU. After three straight non-bowl seasons and a lot of disappointment, it looks like Dennis Erickson will have a very strong team at Arizona State this year. The Sun Devils have 15 starters back, which should help support 6-8 quarterback Brock Osweiler. He takes the reigns after Steven Threet was forced to step away from football because of concussions. Osweiler should be well-protected, as the whole offensive line is back, and he has a lot of weapons at his disposal. Running back Cameron Marshall and wide receiver Mike Willie have loads of talent. The Sun Devils have a favorable schedule, with USC and Oregon State at home, and only Oregon and Utah looking like difficult road games. Erickson's defenses have been plenty competitive in recent years, and as long as that trend continues, there's no reason ASU can't be in the mix for the league title and a significant bowl.

Tough times at UCLA. Fourth-year coach Rick Neuheisel was supposed to fix a lot of these ills. Instead, the UCLA program continues to flounder in mediocrity. The Bruins have been to one bowl in Neuheisel's three years, and that was an EagleBank Bowl bid in 2009 that materialized only because Army couldn't win its last game and gain eligibility. This year, UCLA has 17 starters back, including nine on offense, but there is one guy Neuheisel needs more than anyone else. That's junior quarterback Kevin Prince, who was injured much of last season and ineffective when he was healthy. Without him, it won't matter how many yards Johnathan Franklin runs for, and it won't matter who good the defense -- which stunk last year -- is. Neuheisel is an offensive guy, and he has to develop a quarterback or risk being out of a job.

The Rest of the Story

Oregon State seems to always outperform expectations, but after a 5-7 season, the Beavers need to rebound this year. Junior quarterback Ryan Katz should have more time to throw behind an experienced line this season. ... No more Jake Locker at Washington, but the Huskies still have a pretty good team. Sophomore Keith Price takes over at quarterback, and junior running Chris Polk is going to be a star ... Due to stadium renovations, California is playing home games at San Francisco's AT&T Park. Like Oregon State, the Golden Bears were uncharacteristically bad last year, going 5-7. Unless Buffalo transfer Zach Maynard is the answer at quarterback, though, things might not improve as quickly. ... I keep thinking Washington State will improve, and nothing really happens. Paul Wulff is 5-32 in Pullman, but there are signs of light here. He has a quarterback in Jeff Tuel who can play, and the Cougars will be better on defense. Unfortunately, they might not be good enough to win more than three or four games. ... USC is still not eligible for a league title or a bowl game, but they're going to be dangerous this year. The Trojans have a developing star in junior quarterback Matt Barkley, and sophomore receiver Robert Woods is coming off a great season. They should be good enough to battle Arizona State for the South title. ... I'm not sure what to make of Arizona. I like Nick Foles as a quarterback in this offense, and Juron Criner is a hell of a good receiver. I'm just no sure the Wildcats have enough pieces on defense to win more than three or four league games in this conference. They can make a minor bowl, but I'm not sure they're better than that.

2011 College Football Preview: Mountain West

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Boise State
2. TCU
3. Air Force
4. Wyoming
5. Colorado State
6. San Diego State
7. New Mexico
8. UNLV

Top Storylines to Watch in the Mountain West

The new guy. As the Mountain West mourns the losses of Utah and rival BYU, the league is still strong, thanks to the addition of Boise State from the WAC. The Broncos have been a monster in college football for some time, posting a staggering 61-5 record over the last five years, with three of those losses coming in 2007. Three-year starter Kellen Moore is back under center for Boise, carrying a TD-interception ratio of 99-19 into this season. That's solid. Senior running back Doug Martin is back, as is senior receiver Tyler Shoemaker. Senior left tackle Nate Potter has been first-team All-WAC twice, and he's an odds-on favorite for similar honors in the MWC this year. Chris Petersen's team returns seven starters on defense. Among them are senior tackles Billy Wynn and Chase Baker, senior ends Tyrone Crawford and Shea McClellin, and linebackers Aaron Tevis and Byron Hout, both seniors. This is a serious national championship contender, and it doesn't hurt them at all that key MWC games against TCU and Air Force will both be contested on the blue carpet.

The lame duck. Boise is in, and Fresno State and Nevada might be on the way soon, but the loss of TCU will hurt the league in a way, because they no longer have a foot in the door in Texas. TCU's decision to move to the Big East was controversial in a way, in large part because of the league's decision to move a home game against Boise to Idaho after TCU announced it was departing. On the field, this figures to be a tough season for the Horned Frogs, who posted back-to-back unbeaten regular seasons (only loss was the 2009 Fiesta Bowl to Boise), and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl last year to complete a 13-0 campaign. As usual, TCU will be led by its defense, which hasn't allowed more than 20 points per game in a season since 2004. Linebackers Tanner Brock and Tank Carder are back, as is defensive end Stansly Maponga. The offense took some hits, as quarterback Andy Dalton -- the school's all-time leading passer by nearly 3,000 yards -- departed, along with leading receiver Jeremy Kerley and top offensive linemen Marcus Cannon and Jake Kirkpatrick. Going to Baylor and Air Force right out of the chute won't help matters, but I still think there's a decent chance TCU will be unbeaten when they head to Boise Nov. 12. It's not too early to get excited about that one.

Air Force is doing it ... again. It's probably a bit insulting now to talk with amazement about how Air Force -- with stringent admissions standards and often an undersized team -- continues to remain more than competitive in today's college football landscape. Instead, this has become old hat. The Falcons have not won fewer than eight games in any of their four years under coach Troy Calhoun, and there's no reason to think they will struggle to hit that number again this year. Senior quarterback Tim Jefferson returns for a fourth year at the controls, something rather unprecedented in the Air Force system. And, yet, it's the second class in a row that's featured a four-year starter for them (Shaun Carney from 2004-2007). Jefferson can throw enough to keep defenses honest, and he's the kind of run threat you expect from the option offense. Senior back Asher Clark returns after a 1,000-yard season, and junior Wesley Cobb should also see plenty of carries. Eight starters are back on defense, including nose tackle Ryan Gardner, a key figure in the team's 3-4 defense, one that struggled mightily to defend the run last year (over 200 yards per game). An experienced secondary helps keep teams from running away with games. An early home date with TCU will tell us a lot about this Air Force team, one that has a realistic shot at ten or more wins.

Rocky Long returns. Well, to the league, that is. Long is the new head man at San Diego State, taking over for Brady Hoke after he moved on to Michigan. Long coached at New Mexico for a decade, taking the Lobos to five bowls in seven years before being shoved out the door. The Lobos are 2-22 since. Long takes over a team that Hoke did a tremendous job with, getting them to nine wins and a bowl win over Navy last year. The Aztecs do have senior quarterback Ryan Lindley back after a tremendous season last year, and running back Ronnie Hillman returns after tearing up defenses as a freshman, but SDSU loses six starters from a Long-led defense that had some struggles a year ago. That's the new head man's priority: get more out of that defense, including a lot more big plays. A winning season is a solid bet here, but they'll have to make quick strides defensively to match the nine they won in 2010.

The Rest of the Story 

I'm hitching up to the Wyoming bandwagon. The Cowboys return 14 starters, have an emerging star in back Alvester Alexander, and should be significantly better on defense. If Dave Christensen can find a quarterback, he'll have a team capable of going bowling for the third time since 1993. ... Colorado State should also be a lot better this year. The Rams suffered through a 3-9 season, but now-sophomore quarterback Pete Thomas made strides each start. Just think about how much better he will be thanks to last year's experience. ... There's no doubt that Mike Locksley is in trouble at New Mexico. He has a better team on paper, but they're 2-22 the last two years and not looking to be better than four or five wins this year. Doesn't help that former UNM coach Long is now a head man for a league rival. ... Former Montana head coach Bobby Hauck is trying to build UNLV into a contender, and one year won't show those results. Look for the Rebels to play a ton of young players as Hauck stocks the shelves with his players. For now, though, only marginal improvement can be reasonably expected after a 2-11 campaign.