2011 College Football Preview: WAC

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Fresno State
2. Nevada
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Hawai'i
5. Utah State
6. Idaho
7. San Jose State
8. New Mexico State

Top Storylines in the WAC

Parity at the top, but Fresno will climb the mountain. If there's a benefit to Boise State bolting for the Mountain West, it's that the top of the WAC is as wide-open as it's been in years. I think Fresno State and Nevada are a bit ahead of the rest, but I could be completely off my rocker. No matter what, I expect the WAC to be won by a team that won't be in the league next season (Fresno, Nevada, and Hawai'i all join the Mountain West). Fresno State only returns ten starters, but among them is junior running back Robbie Rouse, who topped 1,100 yards and at least flashed some brilliance in his effort to replace the largely-irreplaceable Ryan Mathews. Derek Carr, younger brother of former Fresno State star David, should take over the offense for the Bulldogs, and I expect he will do many of the things his brother was famous for in college. Pat Hill's defense has struggled for a few years, but senior tackle Logan Harrell and junior linebacker Travis Brown should both be stars as part of a resurgent unit this year. Nevada loses Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua, along with sack leader Dontay Moch. The Wolf Pack start senior Tyler Lantrip at quarterback, and they have Lampford Mark and Mike Bell at running back, along with seven starters back on defense. They went 13-1 last year, and that probably won't happen again, but there's plenty of reason for hope in Reno.

Another stud quarterback at Hawai'i. He needs nearly 10,000 yards to pass Timmy Chang, and some 6,500 to reach Colt Brennan, but Bryant Moniz is the latest in a long line of big arms to lead the Hawai'i offense. Moniz topped 5,000 yards passing last year, with nearly 40 passing touchdowns, as the Warriors won ten games, including handing Nevada its only loss of the season. The Warriors have Moniz, but little else, back on the offensive side, but Hawai'i is known for quickly reloading. Left tackle Austin Hansen anchors the line, and senior receiver Royce Pollard returns. JUCO transfer Darius Bright will be a main target for Moniz, too. The Warriors have gotten progressively better on defense since 2005, and that should continue this season, thanks to guys like linebacker Corey Paredes and tackles Vaughn Meatoga and Kaniela Tuipolotu. Hawai'i's schedule features Louisiana Tech and Nevada on the road, so its final WAC slate isn't an easy one.

The Rest of the Story

Louisiana Tech is the best hope among the non-leaving teams to win the WAC. The Bulldogs need to settle on a quarterback, but they should be competitive on defense and along both lines. ... Diondre Borel departs, but Utah State gets star running back Robert Turbin back from a torn ACL, and junior receiver Stanley Morrison -- the team's leading receiver in 2009 -- is back off a medical redshirt. ... Idaho narrowly missed out on a bowl game last year after winning the Humanitarian Bowl in 2009, and now the Vandals have to replace four-year starting quarterback Nathan Enderle. Senior Brian Reader has played the position a bit, and eight starters return on defense. ... A 1-12 season hasn't stopped Mike MacIntyre from continuing his work at San Jose State. The Spartans get 18 starters back, because MacIntyre played a ton of freshmen last year. He paid for it with a bad record, but this is going to be a good team very soon. ... Back-to-back ten-loss seasons at New Mexico State should be followed by a better team this season. DeWayne Walker has 16 starters back, and he hit the JUCO ranks hard for talent, but the Aggies still are likely to finish last.

Bring on the Cupcakes: College Football Opens With Its Usual Whimper

It's kind of like what Paul Crewe says in the 2005 version of The Longest Yard, when asked by the prison guy how to best get his football team ready for a game.

"In college, we'd start every season against Appalachian State or some slack Division II team. Kick the living (bad word) out of them."

Appalachian State irony aside -- right, Michigan fans -- this is how college football teams start their season.

Find a Division I-AA team that stinks. Sign a contract to play them. Beat the snot out of them. Move on to Week 2.

It takes a bit of fun out of this upcoming weekend, but not all of it. After all, the season does open this week. There are some good games.

The rules around here are pretty simple. We pick every game involving a Big Ten team to beef up the overall percentage. Then we grab a few interesting games and pick those. We try to do it once a week. Sometimes it fails.

The picks fail more often, but such is life.

The top games this week are as follows:

Pittsburgh at Utah (Thursday)
Connecticut at Michigan
Purdue at Notre Dame
Oregon State vs. TCU at Arlington
LSU vs. North Carolina at Atlanta
Boise State vs. Virginia Tech at Baltimore

That's not a ton to pick from. Boise/VTech is the best of the bunch, and I don't think it's particularly close. We'll get to see this elite Boise offense operate against a strong Tech defense. Kellen Moore threw three picks in over 400 passes last year, but if the Hokies are on their game, they could match that in one night.

What people aren't talking about enough is the Boise State defense. The Broncos don't give teams a lot, and they have some potential stars like Ryan Winterswyk, Billy Winn, and Winston Venable out there. I know Tyrod Taylor has some receivers to work with, and I know he has Ryan Williams back to run the ball. I get that. But this Boise defense can seriously go. This isn't going to be about Virginia Tech having some sort of advantage in the trenches because they're from a "major conference" and Boise is from the WAC.

After all, we all thought that last year when Boise played Oregon, and the Broncos did the mouth-punching on that night.

This team is legit, and they're playing with a chip on their shoulder. Boise wins Monday night.

The pick: Boise State

As for the other games (home team in CAPS) ...

Thursday night
UTAH over Pittsburgh
SOUTH CAROLINA over Southern Miss
INDIANA over Towson
OHIO STATE over Marshall
Minnesota over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

Saturday
MICHIGAN STATE over Western Michigan
PENN STATE over Youngstown State
IOWA over Eastern Illinois
Missouri over Illinois (at St. Louis)
Colorado State over Colorado (at Denver)
MICHIGAN over Connecticut
NOTRE DAME over Purdue
Northwestern over VANDERBILT
TCU over Oregon State (at Arlington)
LSU over North Carolina (at Atlanta)
Wisconsin over UNLV

Monday
Navy over Maryland (at Baltimore)

Last year: 68-40 (we think)

College Football 2010: WAC

Yes, we're doing a College Football Preview again. Yes, you know I love Phil Steele's work. Order from his plethora of preview options here. I'm also armed with The Sporting News College Football 2010, and I picked up the Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook this year, too. I've also done research through local newspapers and school websites to try to get the most up-to-date information on the teams.

Western Athletic Conference
1. Boise State
2. Fresno State
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Nevada
5. Utah State
6. Hawai'i
7. Idaho
8. New Mexico State
9. San Jose State

Stories to Watch in the WAC

A league in serious flux. Suddenly, the WAC's future is in serious doubt. Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada are all bolting for the Mountain West, and the league couldn't coax BYU into joining ... even in everything but football. That leaves the WAC at six teams, and while that might be good enough for some leagues, it probably doesn't work when they have lost their three highest-profile universities. We may hear a lot of rumors about the future, as WAC commissioner Karl Benson tries to recruit some new members who can help keep the league viable, especially in football. Even if Benson can find a couple new schools, it's hard to imagine he will succeed at keeping the league a player in football without Boise, Fresno, and Nevada.

Boise's dominance continues. They don't seem to ever fall off now, do they? Boise State is poised to bust into the BCS once again this year, as they are clearly the top team in a non-AQ league. Junior quarterback Kellen Moore is a darkhorse Heisman contender, especially now that defending winner Mark Ingram has a knee injury and could miss some time. The Broncos return an incredible 20 starters (ten on offense and ten on defense). Among them are Moore, running backs Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin (15 touchdowns), receiver Titus Young, defensive end Ryan Winterswyk, defensive tackle Billy Wynn, linebacker Winston Venable, and cornerback Brandyn Thompson. Boise opens on Labor Day night in Landover, Md., against Virginia Tech. If they get by that game, they should be a pretty heavy favorite in every game. Their biggest conference challenge is likely a trip to Nevada in late November. The Broncos are a solid favorite to win the WAC, and they could crash the BCS title game if things break their way.

Is Utah State this year's Idaho? The Vandals had a real element of surprise going last year, because they were terrible the year before, and they won eight games despite their defense allowing 36 points per game. Utah State is a bit different, but the backstory is at least somewhat similar. The Aggies haven't made a bowl since 1997. They've lost at least eight games in every season since 2002. They're rebounding thanks to an energetic coach and an exciting quarterback. USU senior Diondre Borel finished short of 3,000 yards passing last year, and he posted an impressive 17-4 touchdown-interception ratio. The run game will be hampered by a torn ACL suffered in the spring by Robert Turbin, who ran for nearly 1,300 yards last year. Turbin could miss the season, leaving the job to Michael Smith, a senior who averaged 6.3 yards per carry in limited work last year. If the Aggies can survive a tough non-conference schedule, they could make a bowl, but it depends on Borel, the passing game, and a continuously improving defense.

Idaho tries to do it again. While Idaho had a lot going their way last year, they overcame a poor defense to get to the Humanitarian Bowl. To return to the bowl season, Idaho needs that defense to get a lot better. They bring back ten starters, which is nice, and they'll be led by senior safety Shiloh Keo and linebacker JoJo Dickson, their leading tacklers. The Vandals didn't make many big plays on defense last year, and that's where the biggest difference could come in 2010, assuming the Vandals can parlay that experience into a more explosive unit. On offense, senior quarterback Nathan Enderle leads the way. He was accurate and efficient last year, and they'll need more of that, as leading rusher De'Maundray Woodridge and leading receiver Max Komar are both gone. A road trip to Nebraska is their only daunting non-conference games, while league foes Nevada and Boise State both visit Moscow.

Best of the rest
Even without Ryan Mathews in the backfield, Fresno State is formidable. The passing game looks strong with returning quarterback Ryan Colburn, and sophomore running back Robbie Rouse could be a good one. The offensive line will be one of the WAC's best. ... Quarterback Colin Kaepernick and running back Vai Taua return for Nevada. The Wolf Pack were embarrassed a few times last year, and they will lean on their senior stars to make sure that doesn't happen again. ... Sonny Dykes brings his version of the Air Raid offense to Louisiana Tech. While the transition sounds potentially difficult, the Bulldogs have a capable quarterback in Auburn transfer Steven Ensminger, assuming he can hold off a late charge from returning starter Ross Jenkins. ... Hawai'i could be a darkhorse in this league. The Warriors have a very good secondary returning, and quarterback Bryant Moniz is only going to get better. Hawai'i has a tough schedule, but could surprise in conference play if the defense is stout. ... DeWayne Walker got three wins out of New Mexico State in a transition year. Now, he brings back 15 starters who are used to his way, and a crop of recruits he chose. That means things are likely looking up in Las Cruces after the disastrous Hal Mumme era. ... Former Duke assistant Mike MacIntyre takes over at San Jose State. The Spartans went 2-10 last year, and they have a very tough non-conference schedule. Pile on that a team that was pretty bad last year, and it could be a couple years before the Spartans are again competing for the postseason.

Preseason WAC Superlatives
Best QB: Kellen Moore, Boise State
Best RB: Vai Taua, Nevada
Best WR: Titus Young, Boise State
Best offense: Boise State
Best defense: Boise State
Best coach: Chris Petersen, Boise State
Coach in the most trouble: Greg McMackin, Hawai'i
Best non-conference game: Boise State vs. Virginia Tech, Sept. 6
Worst non-conference game: Cal Poly at Fresno State, Oct. 2

Boise State to the Mountain West?

All the talk about conference expansion seems to have focused on the wrong leagues.

Sure, the Big Ten, Pac 10, and Big East are among the "notable" "power" conferences involved in talks about membership changes. There's no question that moves by one of the "notable" "power" conferences will set off a chain reaction of stuff happening.

However, the most significant and noteworthy move could come from outside college football's power structure. Such a move might cause a change in what we all think the power structure really is.

As June starts, we are approaching what could be a significant day in the history of the Mountain West Conference. The league meets next week, amid speculation that they will be looking to add Boise State to the already-formidable lineup.

Dr. Saturday has more on this, making it sound like it's pretty much a done deal if the conference goes through with the formal invite.

Let's not make a mistake about this. It's a football move. Doc explains as best he can.

... even rival presidents would have a hard time begrudging Boise a move that would mean more money, less travel, better competition and, if the stars align, a shot at an automatic BCS bid. As you may be aware, that title comes with a pretty significant bump in pay grade.

To recap, the Mountain West must pass the BCS' three-pronged test for an automatic bid to one of the big-money bowls, which takes into account a) The average rank of each conference's highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings; b) The average computer rank of the entire conference lineup at the end of the regular season; and c) A complicated point system that measures the percentage of each conference's lineup in the top 25 of the final BCS standings, all over a given four-year period.

For the next BCS negotiations, the four-year period in question will be 2008-11, and though the MWC's "Big Three" – BYU, TCU and Utah – have kept the conference in pretty good standing so far according to criteria a) and c), the bottom half of the league remains an anchor when it comes to the averaging the standing of the entire conference. By that crucial measure, the Mountain West ranks seventh; the BCS requires a top-six finish in all categories. (With likely exceptions for the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac-10 and ACC, of course, should the need ever arise – those carefully negotiated bowl tie-ins must be fulfilled, after all. Otherwise, based on the first two years of the ongoing evaluation period, the ACC would seem to be on particularly thin ice.) Adding Boise's nearly flawless record to the mix would dramatically increase the MWC's chances of making the cut; if nothing else, it would provide enough of a boost to increase their chances of being granted an exception, however farfetched that scenario may be. Above all, it makes the Mountain West a stronger conference on the field, and therefore a more marketable conference off it – certainly too good to remain in the television ghetto of Versus and the mtn.

The idea of the Mountain West stealing an automatic BCS bid is pretty hilarious. Even if they can't do it, the addition of Boise State gives them a pronounced top four of Boise State, TCU, Utah, and BYU. You have Air Force just outside that group, but perfectly capable of picking off any or all of those top four teams in the right year.

It's a football move, though. With all due respect to Boise's other athletic programs, the Mountain West is looking to boost its football profile, and they know they can't do it if they simply wait for New Mexico and UNLV to form more consistent programs. Wyoming isn't putting them over the hump, either.

The intention is obvious. The Mountain West wants to be stronger in the most important college sport you'll find.

To me, though, the most interesting offshoot of a Boise State invite to the Mountain West is its potential implications on the Big East and ACC.

Regardless of whether the Mountain West can swipe an automatic BCS bid, the league could fire the first shot in a historic run of expansion that could change the landscape of the sport. Without anything else happening, Boise State moving would apply a ton of pressure on the Big Ten and Pac 10, both of whom seem to want to expand to parts unknown. You've talked the game, and now the piddly little Mountain West has played the game before you could pull anything off. Better back up that big talk, or wind up looking pretty dumb in the end.

In essence, there would then be heat on the Big East and ACC, both of whom could get raided in expansion efforts, and both of whom could find it tough to stay in "automatic BCS bid" territory.

All because of Boise State.

Boise State could start the avalanche of conference expansion. Wow.

Imagine what would have been said to someone who uttered those words five years ago.

College Football Weekend Preview: Oregon Travels to Smurf Turf for Intriguing Opener

A team from a highly-regarded conference can afford to lose a non-conference game and still contend for the national championship.

Actually, the right team (Hi, Florida!) can lose a conference game without dropping out of contention.

Boise State is not one of these teams.

The Broncos need to finish the regular season unbeaten to have a shot at any BCS bowl. They have virtually no shot at the National Championship Game, no matter what they accomplish on the field.

With quarterback Kellen Moore and a strong defense, Boise is going to be a handful in the WAC. If they meet their match, it will be Thursday night, when they host Oregon for a non-conference doozy.

The Ducks debut new coach Chip Kelly, and whether they want to admit it or not, there is a revenge factor in this game. Boise jumped to a huge lead, then held on to win last year's game in Eugene. Along the way, quarterback Jeremiah Masoli suffered a concussion on a helmet-to-helmet hit.

Masoli is a wonderful player, and a great fit for the Ducks' spread offense. He isn't the best thrower in the Pac 10, but he's a super athlete, and his speed and skill will cause tons of problems for Boise State's defense.

Not only do the Ducks have memories of last year to motivate them, but there is also history that they can try to beat. The Broncos are an incredible 64-2 over the last ten years at Bronco Stadium, which is the only stadium in college football blanketed by blue turf.

The "Smurf Turf" has become the stuff of legend in the sport, and the 30,000 or so fans who will show up to yell full-throat for the home team only add to the home-field advantage.

But don't mistake the prestige of the schools' conferences as having anything to do with where the pressure lies in this game. The heat is solely on Boise State.

There are a myriad of reasons to believe Oregon can lose this game and still make a major, big-money bowl. It's happened many times in the past with teams from BCS conferences, and this year will be no different. The stakes for Boise and the rest of the WAC, who would share in the revenue from a member school making a BCS game, are much, much higher. A loss, and Boise State (along with the rest of the WAC) can kiss its BCS hopes goodbye.

No pressure, though.

Oregon has athletes at the skill positions. They have a confident, experienced quarterback. After Thursday, they'll have a signature win for their new coach.

The pick: Oregon

Minnesota at Syracuse: Doug Marrone makes his Syracuse debut. There are signs -- despite the naming of Greg Paulus as starting quarterback -- that things are going to improve. Marrone has an appreciation for Syracuse's tradition. He won't allow things to spiral out of control, and he will make sure the players understand the importance of the program. In this game, a defense that has struggled will face a high-tempo run attack led by Adam Weber and Duane Bennett. The Orange might fare better if this game were in November, but this is a very tough draw for a season opener.
The pick: Minnesota

Navy at Ohio State: Normally, this would have "upset" written all over it. The tough, disciplined Navy team goes on the road against a team expecting a cupcake for a season-opening opponent. This is Ohio State, though. A loaded Buckeye team will win this game going away with their superior athletes, especially quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who would be unstoppable, by the way, in Navy's offense. Oh, and a tip of the cap to the normally boorish Ohio State fans, as they have come up with a great idea to pay tribute to their service academy opponent.
The pick: Ohio State

Nevada at Notre Dame: As much as everyone wants to see this upset, it's hard to make the pick. Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua will make some plays against the Irish defense, but it will be insanely tough for Nevada to slow Jimmy Clausen down.
The pick: Notre Dame

Georgia at Oklahoma State: The Bulldogs have to replace top offensive stars Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, both high picks in the NFL Draft. The Cowboys return quarterback Zac Robinson, running back Kendall Hunter, and receiver Dez Bryant. Oh, and they're playing at home.
The pick: Oklahoma State

Missouri vs Illinois at St. Louis: The Illini were torched in last year's meeting. Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn will handle the burning this time around.
The pick: Illinois

BYU vs Oklahoma at Dallas: This Cougars team could be a BCS contender were it not for their near-impossible schedule. The Sooners are too big, too strong, too tough, and should have a significant crowd advantage, no matter how many Texas fans wear blue to this game.
The pick: Oklahoma

Alabama vs Virginia Tech at Atlanta: The Tide are ready after last year's disappointing finish (two straight losses). Coach Nick Saban has the personnel to rack up enough points to win this game, while slowing down Virginia Tech's athletic quarterback, Tyrod Taylor.
The pick: Alabama

Other games (Home team in CAPS)

Thursday
NORTH CAROLINA STATE over South Carolina

Saturday
WAKE FOREST over Baylor
MICHIGAN over Western Michigan
WISCONSIN over Northern Illinois
CALIFORNIA over Maryland

Monday
RUTGERS over Cincinnati
FLORIDA STATE over Miami

College Football 2009: WAC

This year's College Football Preview uses information gathered from many sources. As usual, my full endorsement goes to Phil Steele and his College Football Preview, which is the most comprehensive publication of its kind available. I also used The Sporting News College Football Preview, along with school websites and local newspapers, in my research for these preview posts. Please contact me ASAP if you have updated information that can be used to make this work more accurate.

1. Boise State
2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Louisiana Tech
5. San Jose State
6. Hawai'i
7. Utah State
8. Idaho
9. New Mexico State

Fab Four: Top Storylines in WAC

Boise a national contender again. In 2008, an unbeaten Boise State team was "relegated" to a game against TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl. The Broncos fell 17-16, as their high-octane offense was effectively slowed by TCU's swarming defense. That said, even with the skill talent that Boise lost, they should be a heavy favorite in the WAC. With non-conference games against Oregon and Tulsa, the BCS is a more realistic goal this time around. Junior running back Jeremy Avery, who has seen plenty of playing time in the last two years, takes over the starting position vacated by Ian Johnson. Sophomore quarterback Kellen Moore has plenty of targets to choose from, including junior receiver Austin Pettis. On defense, nearly the entire secondary returns after allowing just 190 pass yards per game last year. There is work to be done to reload the front seven, but the Broncos do have All-WAC end Ryan Winterswyk back. Three years removed from their Fiesta Bowl stunner over Oklahoma, it looks like Boise State could return to being a BCS contender. It helps that fellow WAC contender Nevada has to visit Boise this year, but maybe that doesn't matter. After all, the Broncos are 54-2 in WAC play over the last seven years.

Nevada makes their move. It doesn't look like it will be good enough to win the league, but Nevada figures to field their best team in many years this fall. The Wolf Pack have 14 starters returning to Reno, and all the major players are in that group. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick was the league's Offensive Player of the Year last year, totaling nearly 4,000 yards and accounting for 39 touchdowns. Also back is junior running back Vai Taua, who ran for over 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Leading receiver Marko Mitchell is gone, but junior Chris Wellington caught 42 passes last year, and he figures to emerge as Kaepernick's favorite target. On defense, Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch combined for 21.5 sacks last year, and leading tackler Jonathan Amaya, a senior safety, also returns. The schedule is very tough, with trips to Notre Dame and Colorado State and a home game against Missouri. Count the WAC schedule, and Nevada plays seven games against 2008 bowl teams, four of those on the road. All told, this should be Chris Ault's most talented team, and the experience at key positions should help the Wolf Pack approach ten wins.

Rebuilding continues at Utah State. The Aggies are almost in a perpetual rebuild, but there's reason to think that the rebuild is going to lead to something good this time. Brent Guy couldn't clean up the Aggies' play on the field, but he cleaned up the recruiting, and he was able to get some pretty good players to go to Logan. New coach Gary Andersen, a former defensive coordinator at Utah, takes over now, and he has 48 returning letterwinners to work with. Among them is quarterback Diondre Borel, who showed flashes of brilliance and will only get better as he continues to tone his body and his game. Senior receiver Xavier Bowman looks like he's ready to take over as the top target, and the offensive line returns four starters from a unit that only allowed nine sacks over the team's last five games. Defensively, Andersen inherits a group that was a mess last year, but will benefit from the new coach's background. Only when the Aggies start stopping people with more regularity will Utah State's fortunes really improve. They haven't allowed under 30 points per game since 2003, and they're on a streak of four straight years allowing over 400 yards per game. The offense should keep getting better, though, and if Utah State can survive insane road trips to Utah, Texas A&M, and BYU over their first four games, bowl eligibility is a remote possibility.

Fresno State keeps on going. While Fresno hasn't won a conference title in 20 years, they have developed quite the reputation around college football. The Bulldogs have pulled some upsets over the years, won a few bowl games, and are almost always a postseason contender in the WAC. As Pat Hill tries to replace quarterback Tom Brandstater with junior Ryan Colburn, he finds stability all over the field. The only major questions are an offensive line that lost both starting tackles, and a schedule that includes road trips to Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Illinois, and Nevada. Fresno State will run the ball well with Ryan Mathews and Anthony Harding, and Colburn should have more than enough guys to throw to. The defense of last year shouldn't be the same, as eight starters return in an effort to show they're not the horrible unit that gave up over 30 points eight times in 13 games.

Best of the rest

Eight wins and a bowl trip made for a nice season at Louisiana Tech. With nine starters back on offense and seven more on defense, the Bulldogs could be even better. The key will be quarterback Ross Jenkins improve his accuracy while holding off Auburn transfer Steve Ensminger. ... A loss to Fresno State in their season finale meant that San Jose State was left home for the bowl season. Don't count on that happening again, as the Spartans return a lot of talent. Look for senior quarterback Kyle Reed to have a big season, especially if he can find a suitable target to replace leading receiver David Richmond. ... Hawai'i rode their defense to a bowl bid last year, sort of. The offense lost almost 20 points per game from the previous season, and it's hard to imagine the Warriors will magically be as potent as they were under June Jones. Now they have to deal with nine new starters on defense, too. It could be a tough year in Honolulu. ... Robb Akey is in his third year at Idaho. If he has any luck, he'll be around longer than that. Even though Akey is just 3-21 so far, his team has shown some signs of potential improvement. That said, progress is measured in wins, and the Vandals don't figure to win many this year, despite a slew of experienced players and a fairly talented signal-caller in Nathan Enderle. ... New Mexico State starts over this year. Hal Mumme and his crazy offense are gone, and Dewayne Walker takes over. He'll tone things down, try to get the Aggies to run the ball for more than the 55 yards per game they had last year, and the former UCLA defensive coordinator will get to work trying to build a respectable defense in Las Cruces.

Preseason WAC Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Coach of the Year: Chris Ault, Nevada
Coach on the Hot Seat: Robb Akey, Idaho
Best non-conference game: Oregon at Boise State, September 3
Worst non-conference game: UC-Davis at Boise State, October 3

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: WAC

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

1. Fresno State
2. Boise State
3. Nevada
4. New Mexico State
5. Louisiana Tech
6. Hawai'i
7. San Jose State
8. Idaho
9. Utah State

TOP FIVE STORYLINES IN THE WAC
June Jones moves on. The biggest addition for Conference USA is the biggest loss for the WAC. Jones won 76 games in nine seasons at Hawai'i, taking the Warriors to the Sugar Bowl in his final season. Yes, the Warriors got worked by Georgia, 41-10, in the bowl, but the fact that Jones took a program on a shoestring budget ($50,000 for recruiting) as far as he did is a testament to his coaching abilities. Former UH defensive coordinator Greg McMackin takes over the head job, and he starts by making $300,000 more per year than Jones did (McMackin is slated to make $1.1 million). The longtime assistant coach has quite a task on his hands, as Hawai'i returns only nine starters from last year's 12-1 team. Early-season trips to Florida and Oregon State should only complicate the transition.

Fresno's BCS potential. As usual, Pat Hill has an interesting team in the Valley. The Bulldogs return 17 starters, including ten on offense, from a team that got hot late last season. Fresno won eight of their last ten games after a 1-2 start. They clearly found the QB to lead them into a potentially huge season in 2008, as Tom Brandstater (photo) hit nearly 63 percent of his throws and tossed just five picks in 337 attempts. He has all his skill players back. Feature back Ryan Mathews ran for 14 touchdowns, and top receivers Marlon Moore and Bear Pascoe combined for 93 catches and nine scores. Hill's defense was subpar a season ago, allowing over 400 yards per game and permitting 27 points per game. The schedule is also daunting, probably preventing Fresno from having a real shot at a BCS run. The Bulldogs play non-conference games at Rutgers, Toledo, and UCLA, host Wisconsin, and they also travel to Boise State November 28 for their WAC finale. It will take Hill's best coaching job yet to get this team to Boise with an 11-0 record, but it would be great to see a team like Fresno State rewarded for it's "anyone, anywhere, anytime" scheduling mentality.

The race for third. It appears Nevada is favored to end up third in the league. With WAC Freshman of the Year Colin Kaepernick (right) returning to run the Pistol offense, and all the offensive leaders back, Nevada should have little trouble topping the 33.5 points per game they averaged last season. Much like the rest of the WAC, Nevada's defense is leaky, and it likely keeps them from being a serious league title contender. Hawai'i has to replace record-setting QB Colt Brennan, three receivers who caught 90 or more passes last year, and offensive architect June Jones. New Mexico State has to be considered a threat to rise up the league standings. The Aggies return 14 starters, including seven on a defense that will benefit greatly from an improved offense. Hal Mumme's Air Raid offense was grounded by injuries to QB Chase Holbrook and WR Chris Williams. All the key pieces return on offense, so it's a matter of turning the ball over less and staying healthy. Holbrook is one of the more talented and accurate quarterbacks in the country, and he's all set up for a huge senior year. The other wild card in the WAC is Louisiana Tech. They have two transfers battling for the QB job, including last year's Georgia Tech starter, Taylor Bennett. Auburn transfer Steven Ensminger is also in the mix, as is sophomore Ross Jenkins. The Bulldogs won five games a year ago, despite a passing game that floundered under 200 yards per game. Improving the play out of the QB position will help LT a great deal. Getting more consistent defensive play would also be a good thing. Then again, that's a weakness all over the league.

Holbrook Chase-ing some attention. Yes, it's New Mexico State. Yes, it's Hal Mumme's gimmicky Air Raid offense. But Holbrook (right) is still something to watch. Despite battling injuries and throwing 18 interceptions, Holbrook hit 70 percent of his throws last year, and he's already the school's all-time leading passer by over 1,000 yards. Having a healthy Williams will help Holbrook (Williams caught over 90 passes in 2006), as will an improved offensive line and the experience of another year in Mumme's offense. The schedule shows visits from Boise State and Hawai'i, as well as a non-conference home game with rival New Mexico. Holbrook has a big arm, so anything he can do to impress NFL scouts is a bonus. He won't be a high draft pick because of Mumme's offense (he spends too much time in the shotgun), but his progress definitely bears watching. He's probably the highest-profile QB in this league.

Utah State continues to have problems. Try as he might, Brent Guy just can't right the ship in Logan, Utah. The fourth-year coach did lead his team to wins in each of their last two games a year ago, but that was after an 0-10 start that included losses by 51, 16, 15, and 52 points. The Aggies have to reconstruct the offense this year, as three-year starting QB Leon Jackson departs. Senior Sean Setzer and junior Jase McCormick appear to be the leaders to take over the position. A smallish USU defense allowed nearly 200 yards per game rushing, but they get back five of their front seven for this year. Guy also recruited DT Casey Davis from nearby Snow Junior College, hoping he can bolster the interior pass rush. The Aggies posted just 12 sacks last year, and no more than two in any single game. Winning more battles up front is a top priority for the defense. Opening at UNLV and Oregon, then at home against Utah, is not helpful. But Guy has the right attitude, and he continues to slowly improve the depth of the football team.

BEST OF THE REST
Boise State's offense continues to evolve. The Broncos have added a quicker tempo to their attack, and they're also using some spread stuff and some of Nevada's pistol offense. They still have All-America RB Ian Johnson, who battled injuries again last season. Dick Tomey led San Jose State to a bowl win in his second season, but the Spartans fell off last year. The return of RB Yonus Davis should help SJSU improve, but it means nothing if they can't replace productive QB Adam Tafralis, who graduated. If a team like Hawai'i, New Mexico State, or San Jose State falter, it is an opportunity for Idaho to surprise. Second-year coach Robb Akey should see his offense improve, thanks to ten returning starters. He'll benefit from the decision to play now-sophomore Nathan Enderle in nine games last year. That experience will pay off, as will the play of second-team All-WAC back Deonte' Jackson.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State
Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Gingo, LB, Boise State
Coach of the Year: Hal Mumme, New Mexico State
Coach on the Hot Seat: Brent Guy, Utah State
Best Non-Conference Game: Wisconsin at Fresno State, September 13
Worst Non-Conference Game: Idaho State at Boise State, August 30

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '07: WESTERN ATHLETIC

1. Boise State
2. Hawai'i
3. San Jose State
4. New Mexico State
5. Fresno State
6. Nevada
7. Idaho
8. Utah State
9. Louisiana Tech

-->TOP FIVE STORYLINES IN THE WAC

5. Fresno State won't do that again, will they? Seemed like everything went wrong last year for the usually-strong Bulldogs. Fresno won their opener, but proceeded to drop four straight (three by a combined nine points) before a humiliating 68-37 home loss to Hawai'i. Fresno would lose two more in a row before finally breaking the skid. The 3-1 finish left some promise for 2007, but Pat Hill has to replace a lot of bodies on defense before the Bulldogs can contend again in the WAC. QB Tom Brandstater had an up-and-down season last year, but USC transfer Michael Stuart should give him a big target in the middle of the field, and Hill has a solid core on the offensive line to work with. The usually tough non-conference schedule shows roadies to Texas A&M and Oregon, along with a home game against Kansas State. Late trips to Hawai'i and New Mexico State will be horribly difficult if Fresno doesn't shore up a leaky pass defense.

4. Will San Jose State continue to improve? The challenge now for Dick Tomey, in his third year as head coach, is to keep this team from flatlining or regressing. A number of key contributors return, especially on defense, where All-WAC LB Matt Castelo and All-American CB Dwight Lowery lead the way. QB Adam Tafralis' favorite target from last year, James Jones, is now a Green Bay Packer, but JUCO transfer David Richmond expects to see plenty of action at WR. 1,000-yard rusher Yonus Davis returns, and the interior of the offensive line should be strong. SJSU plays four straight on the road to start the season, including trips to Arizona State and Kansas State. The Spartans also draw Fresno State and Boise State on the road in WAC play, so getting back to nine wins again this year won't be easy.

3. Is any WAC defense capable of slowing down Hal Mumme's Air Raid? On the surface, only Boise State appears to have much of a shot. Mumme's offense could be more potent than ever this year, with 70-percent passer Chase Holbrook returning, along wit hall his primary receivers. In fact, the top seven pass-catchers return, having combined for 353 catches and 33 touchdowns last year. Junior Chris Williams led the country with 1,415 yards, and he scored 12 times. With no serious improvement in sight for NMSU's defense, the Aggies will try to win more than last year's four games by topping their 31 PPG average. Cutting back on a staggering total of 22 lost fumbles last year is a good first step.

2. Can Boise State avoid slipping up before their showdown at Hawai'i? If they do, the Broncos will have a shot at returning to the BCS picture one year after the Oklahoma upset. Boise has trips to Washington and Fresno State, along with potentially tough home games with Southern Mississippi and San Jose State before the November 23 trip to the islands. Junior RB Ian Johnson, who accounted for 25 scores last year, leads an offense that lost three-year starting QB Jared Zabransky. Center-field safety Marty Tadman led the team in picks last year, and both starting cornerbacks also return from last year. With all the tough games at home, it looks like Boise will again threaten to go unbeaten through the regular season. Imagine a Thanksgiving Friday night game in Hawai'i with two unbeatens. Could there be a better scene?

1. What can Colt Brennan do for an encore? The Hawai'i star hit an incredible 72.6 percent of his throws, totaled 63 touchdowns (58 passing to set an all-time record for a single-season), and threw for over 5,500 yards. The somewhat lanky Brennan returned to school despite information from scouts that he would be a mid-first round pick in the NFL Draft. He gives himself a shot at the H*i*m*n Trophy, but he also wants to lead Hawai'i to a perfect season and a shot at a BCS bowl. The schedule, featuring two I-AA teams, might not be good enough to merit that BCS opportunity, but Brennan sure does have a shot at some serious individual hardware, and he looks like the best NFL prospect June Jones has tutored in the run-and-shoot.

CISKIE BLOG PRESEASON WAC AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Colt Brennan, QB, Hawai'i
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Marty Tadman, S, Boise State
Preseason Coach of the Year: Hal Mumme, New Mexico State
Coach on the Hot Seat: Brent Guy, Utah State
Bowl Bound: Boise State, Hawai'i
Bowl Bubble: San Jose State, New Mexico State, Fresno State
Best Non-Conference Game:
Worst Non-Conference Game:

BLOGPOLL ROUNDTABLE: OVERRATED/UNDERRATED

Nice and simple. Just like I prefer it.

I don't have to think too much, and those who know me are aware that thinking sucks sometimes.

Brian of MGoBlog is your host. The questions are simple, and the answers follow.

Who is overrated?

Looking at the preseason poll, one team seems to stand out for me, and it's not a likely answer, I am guessing.

Texas.

Why Texas? As much as I like Colt McCoy's talent and leadership, there is something worrisome about this Texas team. They lost a ton of defensive talent, and while Mack Brown keeps re-stocking this roster with Phil Steele-approved VHTs, I'm concerned about a team starting two new corners and two new defensive ends in a conference that has more than enough offensive talent.

I'm also red-flagging an offensive line that got beaten up in the last two regular-season games (both losses) to the tune of seven sacks. It's also worth noting that a line more experienced than the one they'll field this year failed to protect their quarterback or run-block effectively down the stretch. Combined total of rushing yardage for Texas in their final three games: 283 yards. Very un-Texas, if you ask me. Three starters are gone from that line, so things might be a bit hairy at times for McCoy.

Call it a hunch, but I have Texas behind both Oklahoma and A&M in the Big 12 South. Yes, I'm serious. And yes, I'm stupid.

Who is underrated?

I could pick Wisconsin here, but I'm not sure they're underrated. I tend to think I may have overrated them, actually. Another good choice for me would be Arkansas, because I do think they're a tad overlooked. However, I look at the BlogPoll and I see a startling omission.

Boise State.

They're not sexy at all. They may have gotten lucky to an extent when they beat Oklahoma. But they're good. Real good, I'd say. Ian Johnson is one of the top backs in the nation, and even without Jared Zabransky throwing, the offense is going to motor. The line is very solid, and Taylor Tharp is a good player who deserves credit for waiting his turn behind Zabransky. I like the growth I'm expecting to see out of this defense, led by safety Marty Tadman.

The schedule is better than it was last year, when all they had was the Oregon State game. Washington will be a decent test for this team, and that Southern Mississippi game in late September will be a great matchup on the smurf turf. A Thanksgiving Day weekend showdown in Hawai'i may decide the league and could be a battle of overlooked unbeatens.

An updated BlogPoll ballot will be posted tomorrow, and more conference previews are coming, too. If I'm lucky, I'll get the SEC done tonight. Again, check my WDSM blog for ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and Big 12 previews.