The Ciskie Blog: college football 09 preview

Showing posts with label college football 09 preview. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Wisconsin Football: Under The Radar

This year's College Football Preview uses information gathered from many sources. As usual, my full endorsement goes to Phil Steele and his College Football Preview, which is the most comprehensive publication of its kind available. I also used The Sporting News College Football Preview, along with school websites and local newspapers, in my research for these preview posts. Please contact me ASAP if you have updated information that can be used to make this work more accurate.

Perhaps there's a silver lining to a rough season.

While expectations among the fans remain high, a team need not worry about national media crushing them with questions about a national championship run that will probably never happen.

Instead, the Wisconsin Badgers -- 7-6 last year -- are flying under the radar, even among those who talk nothing but Big Ten football.

That should be just fine with everyone. It will allow fans to decide for themselves (assuming they haven't already) if head coach Bret Bielema really should be on the hot seat, and if quarterback Curt Phillips really is the future.

Bielema did have a good start to his Wisconsin tenure, winning 21 of his first 26. A 7-6 season last year soured many, but it's not enough to justify questions about his coaching ability. Of course, another 7-6 season is going to send alumni scurrying to their checkbooks, and we all know that money talks in college football.

Offense

Phillips isn't the starter, as junior Scott Tolzien won the gig in fall camp. Incumbent Dustin Sherer must be thrilled to see his name third on the depth chart, but it's a deserved demotion, as his inaccurate passing and rather indecisive nature didn't help matters much.

There is some real importance to this decision from Bielema. He needs an accurate, smart, dependable quarterback to lead the way. You know the Badgers will run the ball well, and you know they'll block well up front. They always do.

The variable that separates the good Badger teams from the average ones is at quarterback. Tolzien gets the first shot, and he may be a clone of John Stocco. Of course, if he's more like Allan Evridge or Sherer than Stocco, the team is screwed. It sounds like Phillips will get some playing time, and the athletic dimension he brings to the position is intriguing. Phillips is not quite ready to play every down, but he can help.

At running back, both John Clay and Zach Brown are back to fill the void left by the early NFL departure of P.J. Hill. While Hill never reached his full potential at Wisconsin, he did play enough last season to take pressure off Clay. The big-bodied Clay should take over as feature back, but Brown has pushed hard for playing time throughout the offseason. He only had 55 touches last year after a stellar freshman campaign, but Brown will be a big factor this fall.

Tight end Travis Beckum departed, but senior Garrett Graham is in for a big season. When the Badgers go double-tight, junior Lance Kendricks will get his chances. He's a big target, maybe a bit more athletic than Graham, and should be utilized in the offense. Do-everything starting receiver David Gilreath returns, as does sophomore Nick Toon, son of Badger great Al Toon. Toon caught 15 passes in his senior year. Lanky junior Kyle Jefferson is expected to be much better after a terrible sophomore season. Look out for true freshman Kraig Appleton, a late recruiting win for the Badgers who is pushing for playing time. This is a wonderfully adequate group, even though it is totally lacking in terms of star power. Appleton could fix that, but that isn't going to happen when he can't get on the field. He's not listed in the Badgers' two-deep for their opener Saturday against Northern Illinois.

Up front, the Badgers have some great talent, and for the first time in my memory, they don't have any seniors listed as starters. Tackles Gabe Carimi (left) and Josh Oglesby (right) are typical Wisconsin maulers. Former tackle Jake Bscherer moves inside to guard, where his iffy footwork should be much less of an issue. Junior center John Moffitt got off to a good start last year, starting all 13 games.

Wisconsin averaged 27.5 points per game last year, impressive when you think about the poor passing attack. With Clay and Brown both back, and improved quarterback play in front of the usually-dependable offensive line, this number should rise in 2009.

Defense

There is some work here. The Badgers fell off terribly last season, giving up 48 to Penn State, 38 to Iowa, 32 to Minnesota, 35 to Cal Poly (!!), and 42 to Florida State. The 26.5 average was the highest for a Wisconsin team in a long time. It wasn't enough to necessitate a change in the coaching staff, at least not up top, where coordinator Dave Doeren returns. That's all well and good, but Doeren's task of replacing six starters won't be an easy one.

On the line, senior end O'Brien Schofield is the only returning starter. Seniors Dan Moore and Jeff Stehle should take over at tackle, and sophomore J.J. Watt starts opposite Schofield. With the departure of Matthew Shaughnessy, there might not be as much big-play potential here, but the Badgers expect steady play.

They've retooled a bit at linebacker, as senior Jaevery McFaden is now joined by junior Culmer St. Jean and freshman Mike Taylor, who impressed enough in camp that he won the job on the strong side over Blake Sorensen. Sorensen, a junior, now works in the middle behind St. Jean. Taylor's insertion into the starting lineup is an interesting move, but it should add some athleticism to the group.

Senior Chris Maragos and junior Jay Valai are the starting safeties. They'll be responsible for being the leaders in an otherwise-young secondary. Sophomores Aaron Henry and Devin Smith are the starting corners. Another sophomore -- Antonio Fenelus -- is in the running for nickel/dime back duty.

Overall, it looks like a solid defense, but the Badgers were beaten badly too many times last year, surrendering 172 rush yards to Michigan, 183 to Ohio State, 254 to Iowa, and 276 to Cal Poly. In turn, the secondary was torched for 271 pass yards against Penn State, they gave up 287 to Michigan State, and an incomprehensible 276 to Florida State (the most allowed by an FBS team against FSU last year).

Consistency needs to be a hallmark of this defense. And "consistently bad" is not an option. The Badgers can't afford to not be good in this area again this season.

Overall

Pieces are in place. Bielema has brought in some good receivers, and now has to find a quarterback to match. The line and the run game will be just fine. There is more work needed with the defense, but they don't have to be great for this team to be successful. They just have to be good.

Wisconsin could surprise, as the schedule includes four winnable non-conference games, and three winnable Big Ten road games (Minnesota, Indiana, and Northwestern). Even if the Badgers drop a couple games in conference play, a nine-win season can't be ruled out.

Any more than that would be a wonderful surprise. After what Badger fans went through last year, it would be a welcome sight.

Monday, August 31, 2009

College Football 2009: Big Ten

Fab Four: Top Storylines in Big Ten

Michigan's resurgence. 3-9 just doesn't work for this program. For Rich Rodriguez, it was an embarrassing start to his tenure, but there is reason for hope. Despite news that the NCAA should be sniffing around the program soon, the Wolverines should still be significantly improved. Either Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson will take over at quarterback, and both should be more than adequate once they get used to the speed of the college game. The true freshmen have a background in the spread offense, unlike incumbent starter Nick Sheridan. Receivers Martavious Odoms, Greg Mathews, and Darryl Stonum all return, as does senior running back Brandon Minor. The line is back intact, and the whole group is motivated to significantly improve after averaging just 20 points per game last year. The usual run of highly-touted prospects will try to fill six vacated starting spots on defense, and former Syracuse coach Greg Robinson now serves as the coordinator. Looks for a big season out of senior end Brandon Graham. The schedule is friendly, with four straight home games to start things off, and only the Penn State and Ohio State home games appear to be out of reach at this point.

The Gophers head to the Bank. It may have been a pipe dream for many of his predecessors, but it's a reality for Tim Brewster. TCF Bank Stadium opens for business Sept. 12, when the Gophers host Air Force. The first Big Ten game in the shiny 50,000-seat stadium is Oct. 3, when Wisconsin visits. For Minnesota, getting out of the Metrodome is going to help in many ways. It is tough to compete in recruiting against schools that have glistening on-campus facilities or great traditions that surround the concept of on-campus football. Now, Brewster doesn't have to show recruits pictures, conceptuals, and floor plans. He has the real thing. Don't expect another six-win surge out of this team, which went from 1-11 in 2007 to a 7-1 start that had the college football world talking about the latest coaching superstar. Five straight losses, capped by a 42-21 thrashing by Kansas in the Insight Bowl, left Brewster with much work to do. Former Wisconsin and Nebraska defensive coordinator Kevin Cosgrove and Ronnie Lee will work together to replace Ted Roof on defense, where the Gophers dropped 12 points per game off the 2007 average. Unfortunately, a guy with Cosgrove's pedigree is sometimes only available because of failures, and his last two coordinating stops have not ended well. On offense, Adam Weber will be pushed every day by true freshman MarQueis Gray, who could be starting by mid-season if Weber isn't careful. Expect both guys to be a factor in the offense, which should get better thanks to a healthy Duane Bennett, back from a blown-out knee.

Can Iowa break up the two-horse race? As of now, it's hard to imagine anyone winning the league except for Penn State and Ohio State. The best chance for a surprise may come in the form of Iowa. The Hawkeyes have to deal with health issues surrounding sophomore back Jewel Hampton, but they have all the other necessary pieces in place, including a schedule that gives them no major non-conference challenges (Arizona Sept. 19 notwithstanding). What was an unbelieveable defense last year returns eight starters, and should be really good again. Linebackers Pat Angerer and Jeremiha Hunter, along with safety Brett Greenwood and junior lineman Adrian Clayborn will lead the way. Junior Ricky Stanzi is now established as the starter, and if there's any negative with this Iowa team, it's that they won't sneak up on anyone. They didn't rally emphatically from a 3-3 start by accident last year, and the late win over Penn State turned a lot of heads.

Big expectations for Terrelle Pryor's sophomore year. Coach Jim Tressel didn't ask too much of the highly-touted freshman last year, and Pryor did exactly what should have been expected. He showed great athleticism, flashed some indecision at times in the pocket, and leaned on his experienced star running back and receivers as much as possible. Pryor is only going to get better from here, and this was a very good start for him. tOSU is always good at reloading, and they have to again, being that Beanie Wells, Brian Robiskie, and Brian Hartline are all gone. Senior Ray Small and junior Dane Sanzenbacher will carry the passing game, while Pryor and Brandon Saine will get the job done with their feet. There's no reason to think a defense that was really good last year, and now returns seven starters, won't be good again. James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman are huge losses, but nothing the Buckeyes haven't dealt with before. Plus, when you have Thaddeus Gibson and Cameron Heyward as your ends, you can take time to develop the right linebackers.

Best of the rest

At Penn State, the quarterback is in place, and so is the running game. Defense hasn't been an issue in years, no matter the personnel lost, so all appears to be just fine for Joe Paterno. Look for middle linebacker Sean Lee, an ACL casualty last year, to have a huge season. ... You just never know about Illinois, but they look to be a solid pick as a surprise team this season. Juice Williams' swan song should feature fewer throws into the turf or to the wrong team, and more to Arrelious Benn and Jeff Cumberland, along with the wonderfully-named Mike Hoomanawaunui. ... Nine wins and a Capital One Bowl berth were nice for Michigan State last season. They could take a bit of a tumble this year, thanks to the loss of quarterback Brian Hoyer and running back Javon Ringer, who scored 22 touchdowns one year after Jehuu Caulcrick had 21. ... What should you expect from Wisconsin this year? You'll have to wait and see. Look for that in the next couple days. ... Northwestern picked up nine wins last year. Look for senior quarterback Mike Kafka, who filled in nicely when C.J. Bacher was hurt last year, to step right in to the spread. The Wildcats, who were more than competitive on defense last year, may have the league's best secondary this season. ... Purdue only went 4-8 in Joe Tiller's final year, and Danny Hope has some work to do. The Boilermakers lost a lot of offensive talent, and the defense was torched far too often last year. That defense may have to lead the way early, as Purdue breaks in a new quarterback and new running back. ... It was back to normal for Indiana last year, after the program's first bowl bid in 14 years. The Hoosiers went 1-7 in Big Ten play, and were blown out by 20 or more points six times. Kellen Lewis was kicked off the team, leaving the quarterback duties to Ben Chappell. Look for redshirt freshman Darius Willis to surprise at running back.

Preseason Big Ten Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State
Defensive Player of the Year: Sean Lee, LB, Penn State
Coach of the Year: Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
Coach on the Hot Seat: Bret Bielema, Wisconsin
Best non-conference game: USC at Ohio State, September 12
Worst non-conference game: Eastern Illinois at Penn State, October 10

Friday, August 28, 2009

Bulldogs Ready to Defend Title

What may be more amazing than the fact that UMD won the NCAA Division II football championship last year may be that only two of their 13 games were ever seriously in doubt. This absolutely was not an accident. The Bulldogs dominated most of their foes, winning home and road games by insane margins.

This year is likely to be a bit different, no matter the eventual path UMD walks.

It's not just about the losses, which are heavy. Star quarterback Ted Schlafke -- a four-year starter -- is gone, as are four-year starting safeties Jim Johnson and Tyler Yelk. It's also about a schedule that will prove to be somewhat tougher, and it's about the big red circles on UMD's back.

See, being the hunted is never easy.

This football team, however, should find that they are more than capable of handling the pressure.

UMD sports a ton of talent around sophomore quarterback Jon Lynch, the new starter. Lynch has a bigger arm than Schlafke, and he learned a lot working as the backup last year. It would be impossible to be on the same team as a guy like Schlafke without learning a lot. Lynch gets to hand off to junior running backs Isaac Odim and Brad Foss. He will throw to junior Noah Pauley and sophomore D.J. Winfield. He will take snaps from center Tobias Lemke and get protection from senior Sam Whitney.

There are familiar faces all over.

Kiel Fechtelkotter, the man who ended the Grand Valley State upset with a double-overtime interception, is back at inside linebacker. His partner, Robbie Aurich, also returns. Cole Strilzuk and Brandon Wood are back at cornerback.

In case you're wondering, sophomores Cody Eich and Brad Just are the listed starters at safety, replacing Johnson and Yelk. No one expects them to truly replace that tandem, and Yelk will be around to do what he can to help them be their best (he's a graduate assistant).

On the sideline is veteran coach Bob Nielson. The UMD athletic director has won everywhere he has coached, including UMD. Memories of the national championship season will last forever with UMD fans, but Nielson understands that the team can't live off that championship for one second. This is a new season, and if the Bulldogs are to do anything remotely close to repeating, they have to take every opponent seriously, no matter what the final score was last year.

A home game with Central Washington on Thursday is UMD's only non-conference game, and it's a doozy. The NSIC schedule includes a road date with old rival Winona State, and the Bulldogs also have to deal with a solid Augustana team.

They also have to deal with the target. Nielson will have them plenty ready.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

College Football 2009: Independents

Top Storylines Among Independents

Notre Dame's revival. It didn't look good last year. They lost to Syracuse, and had to take a bid to the Hawai'i Bowl (no offense, but that's not a bowl you expect to see Notre Dame in). This year's team should be much better. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen appears to get it now, and he has a ton of talent around him. Receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd have NFL ability, and junior running back Armando Allen looks like a good one. Charlie Weis has loaded the offensive line with top players, and the only question is at left tackle, where Paul Duncan has to get settled in. There are a few more question marks on defense, but safety Kyle McCarthy and true freshman linebacker Manti Te'o should emerge as the top players. Redshirt freshman Kapron Lewis-Moore may get a chance to start on the line. Weis has a typical Notre Dame schedule, meaning there are landmines and cupcakes. The Irish only play four true road games, adding in a neutral site game (this year it's Washington State in San Antonio), so it's not ridiculous to suggest that Notre Dame will return to a BCS bowl after two years away.

Navy is nothing if not consistent. Fears were abound that Paul Johnson's departure would hurt the Midshipmen. Instead, first-year coach Ken Niumatalolo kept everything going quite well. Navy won eight games and got to a sixth straight bowl game. The Middies played great defense for much of the season, thanks to guys like linebacker Ross Pospisil and defensive end Matt Nechak, both of whom are among seven returning starters. Navy does have to find a new triggerman -- likely junior Ricky Dobbs -- for their option offense, along with new faces at two of the other three backfield positions. That work-in-progress offense opens at Ohio State and plays at Pittsburgh in their third game. However, Navy has always fielded a solid offensive unit, no matter how many starters they had to replace. It's an offense based on discipline and timing, not talent. Expect to see Navy again contending for a bowl bid, despite their tough schedule.

The triple option returns for real. Last year, Stan Brock tried to commit to the option offense at Army. It didn't go well, as the Black Knights had no threat through the passing game. A more modern version of the option should be on display at West Point this season. Former Cal Poly coach Rich Ellerson took over for the fired Brock. Ellerson's offense is based on the option, but there is a serious passing component to it. The Mustangs threw the ball all over the place last year, so much so that receiver Ramses Barden got enough attention to be a third-round pick in the NFL Draft. It shouldn't take long for Ellerson to get things going his way at Army. His first experiment involves six-foot-ten Ali Villanueva, who is now a receiver. If junior quarterback Chip Bowden can figure out a way to get him the ball down the field, Army's offense could create a real positive buzz for the first time in years.

College Football 2009: WAC

Fab Four: Top Storylines in WAC

Boise a national contender again. In 2008, an unbeaten Boise State team was "relegated" to a game against TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl. The Broncos fell 17-16, as their high-octane offense was effectively slowed by TCU's swarming defense. That said, even with the skill talent that Boise lost, they should be a heavy favorite in the WAC. With non-conference games against Oregon and Tulsa, the BCS is a more realistic goal this time around. Junior running back Jeremy Avery, who has seen plenty of playing time in the last two years, takes over the starting position vacated by Ian Johnson. Sophomore quarterback Kellen Moore has plenty of targets to choose from, including junior receiver Austin Pettis. On defense, nearly the entire secondary returns after allowing just 190 pass yards per game last year. There is work to be done to reload the front seven, but the Broncos do have All-WAC end Ryan Winterswyk back. Three years removed from their Fiesta Bowl stunner over Oklahoma, it looks like Boise State could return to being a BCS contender. It helps that fellow WAC contender Nevada has to visit Boise this year, but maybe that doesn't matter. After all, the Broncos are 54-2 in WAC play over the last seven years.

Nevada makes their move. It doesn't look like it will be good enough to win the league, but Nevada figures to field their best team in many years this fall. The Wolf Pack have 14 starters returning to Reno, and all the major players are in that group. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick was the league's Offensive Player of the Year last year, totaling nearly 4,000 yards and accounting for 39 touchdowns. Also back is junior running back Vai Taua, who ran for over 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Leading receiver Marko Mitchell is gone, but junior Chris Wellington caught 42 passes last year, and he figures to emerge as Kaepernick's favorite target. On defense, Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch combined for 21.5 sacks last year, and leading tackler Jonathan Amaya, a senior safety, also returns. The schedule is very tough, with trips to Notre Dame and Colorado State and a home game against Missouri. Count the WAC schedule, and Nevada plays seven games against 2008 bowl teams, four of those on the road. All told, this should be Chris Ault's most talented team, and the experience at key positions should help the Wolf Pack approach ten wins.

Rebuilding continues at Utah State. The Aggies are almost in a perpetual rebuild, but there's reason to think that the rebuild is going to lead to something good this time. Brent Guy couldn't clean up the Aggies' play on the field, but he cleaned up the recruiting, and he was able to get some pretty good players to go to Logan. New coach Gary Andersen, a former defensive coordinator at Utah, takes over now, and he has 48 returning letterwinners to work with. Among them is quarterback Diondre Borel, who showed flashes of brilliance and will only get better as he continues to tone his body and his game. Senior receiver Xavier Bowman looks like he's ready to take over as the top target, and the offensive line returns four starters from a unit that only allowed nine sacks over the team's last five games. Defensively, Andersen inherits a group that was a mess last year, but will benefit from the new coach's background. Only when the Aggies start stopping people with more regularity will Utah State's fortunes really improve. They haven't allowed under 30 points per game since 2003, and they're on a streak of four straight years allowing over 400 yards per game. The offense should keep getting better, though, and if Utah State can survive insane road trips to Utah, Texas A&M, and BYU over their first four games, bowl eligibility is a remote possibility.

Fresno State keeps on going. While Fresno hasn't won a conference title in 20 years, they have developed quite the reputation around college football. The Bulldogs have pulled some upsets over the years, won a few bowl games, and are almost always a postseason contender in the WAC. As Pat Hill tries to replace quarterback Tom Brandstater with junior Ryan Colburn, he finds stability all over the field. The only major questions are an offensive line that lost both starting tackles, and a schedule that includes road trips to Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Illinois, and Nevada. Fresno State will run the ball well with Ryan Mathews and Anthony Harding, and Colburn should have more than enough guys to throw to. The defense of last year shouldn't be the same, as eight starters return in an effort to show they're not the horrible unit that gave up over 30 points eight times in 13 games.

Best of the rest

Eight wins and a bowl trip made for a nice season at Louisiana Tech. With nine starters back on offense and seven more on defense, the Bulldogs could be even better. The key will be quarterback Ross Jenkins improve his accuracy while holding off Auburn transfer Steve Ensminger. ... A loss to Fresno State in their season finale meant that San Jose State was left home for the bowl season. Don't count on that happening again, as the Spartans return a lot of talent. Look for senior quarterback Kyle Reed to have a big season, especially if he can find a suitable target to replace leading receiver David Richmond. ... Hawai'i rode their defense to a bowl bid last year, sort of. The offense lost almost 20 points per game from the previous season, and it's hard to imagine the Warriors will magically be as potent as they were under June Jones. Now they have to deal with nine new starters on defense, too. It could be a tough year in Honolulu. ... Robb Akey is in his third year at Idaho. If he has any luck, he'll be around longer than that. Even though Akey is just 3-21 so far, his team has shown some signs of potential improvement. That said, progress is measured in wins, and the Vandals don't figure to win many this year, despite a slew of experienced players and a fairly talented signal-caller in Nathan Enderle. ... New Mexico State starts over this year. Hal Mumme and his crazy offense are gone, and Dewayne Walker takes over. He'll tone things down, try to get the Aggies to run the ball for more than the 55 yards per game they had last year, and the former UCLA defensive coordinator will get to work trying to build a respectable defense in Las Cruces.

Preseason WAC Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Coach of the Year: Chris Ault, Nevada
Coach on the Hot Seat: Robb Akey, Idaho
Best non-conference game: Oregon at Boise State, September 3
Worst non-conference game: UC-Davis at Boise State, October 3

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

College Football 2009: Sun Belt

Fab Four: Top Storylines in Sun Belt

Tony Franklin's arrival in Murfreesboro. It wasn't exactly as big as Lane Kiffin in Knoxville, but Franklin's hire by Middle Tennessee made headlines, and it could create a change atop the Sun Belt. The Blue Raiders will now run Franklin's wide-open spread, and he won't have to worry about alumni, administrators, or head coaches getting in the way (hi, Auburn!). He also won't have to worry about finding any talent. Philip Tanner ran for 15 touchdowns last year, the top receivers are all back, and Franklin simply needs to groom the right quarterback. That guy could end up being Dwight Dasher, if he improves his horrific accuracy from last season. On defense, the Blue Raiders bring back leading tackler Danny Carmichael and all-conference safety Jeremy Kellem. Early trips to Clemson and Maryland are survivable, and MTSU might be able to split those. An Oct. 6 Tuesday night game at Troy could define the Blue Raiders' title chances.

FIU's continued improvement. Just two years ago, the Golden Panthers were a laughingstock of college football. They were coming off a season where they averaged under ten points per game, went 0-12, and were involved in a humilating on-field fight at Miami. Mario Cristobal has changed much of the perception surrounding this program. They won just once in 2007, but went through some of the growing pains necessary to build a program the right way. Last year, FIU won a non-conference road game for the first time since their move to Division I-A (er, FBS), as they beat Toledo 35-16. FIU opened a new on-campus stadium, played competitively for much of the season, and look to be even better this season. The next hump is the toughest one to get over, as Cristobal looks to get Florida International into bowl eligibility. Senior quarterback Paul McCall needs to take even better care of the ball, and FIU has to find a running game somehow. The defense features a lot of youth, especially in the front seven, but it's a group that played some of its best football down the stretch last year.

Beating on the new guy. Last year, Western Kentucky played five games against Sun Belt teams, the final year before becoming a full member of the league. The Hilltoppers went 0-5 as part of their 2-10 season, and they were outscored 140-80, an average margin of 12 points per game. Things should get better this year, but don't look for WKU to crack the upper half of the league. A defense that got pounded last year lost seven starters, including leading tackler Travis Watters and two cornerbacks. With a freshman (Kawaun Jakes) possibly taking over at quarterback, the onus is on running back Tyrell Hayden to stay healthy and have a productive senior season. The schedule is a bit lighter, with trips to Tennessee and Navy the only daunting roadies, as opposed to the Indiana/Alabama/Kentucky/Virginia Tech gauntlet they had to deal with last year. WKU is still probably a year or two away from being seriously competitive in the Sun Belt.

Troy's dominance continues. There are teams like Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee ready to knock them off, but can they? Troy sports a top quarterback in Levi Brown and a solid running back in DuJuan Harris. Not only that, but leading receiver Jerrel Jernigan is now joined by Oklahoma transfer Josh Jarboe, who could be lighting up SBC defenses pretty quickly. An experienced offensive line should keep Brown well-protected (Troy quarterbacks took just 13 sacks last year, and the line kept a clean sheet in five games) while opening plenty of lanes for Harris, who is also becoming a solid receiving option out of the backfield. Defensively, the Trojans have to replace six starters, but they've always been pretty good at rebuilding on that side of the ball. Linebacker Boris Lee and cornerback Jorrick Calvin should emerge as the leaders this year. The Trojans don't have much of a shot to be a BCS buster because of the Sun Belt's stature, but they do have a shot to shock the world Sept. 12, when they play at Florida. Remember, Troy led LSU 31-3 in the third quarter last year before giving up 37 straight points.

Best of the rest

15 starters are back at Arkansas State after last year's team fell just short of a bowl. Seniors Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold lead the way from the offensive backfield. ... If Rusty Smith can stay healthy and continue to be effective, Florida Atlantic should be able to challenge for a top spot. The Owls get Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State at home, but early trips to Nebraska and South Carolina could hurt their confidence. ... Leader Kinsmon Lancaster is gone, but Louisiana-Monroe brings back 17 starters. Finding a quarterback is a key to bowl eligibility, as is finding a way to diversify the offense. Too much was placed on Lancaster's shoulders. ... Louisiana-Lafayette also loses their offensive stars, as quarterback Michael Desormeaux and running back Tyrell Fenroy are gone. The Ragin' Cajuns face long odds if they want to overcome these losses, as the two combined for over 4,000 total yards and 37 touchdowns. ... After years of respectable defense under Darrell Dickey, Todd Dodge has seen North Texas become a joke on that side of the ball. They've won three games in two years under Dodge, and they've allowed fewer than 30 points exactly twice in those 24 games. It doesn't matter how good the Mean Green become at running the spread with quarterback Riley Dodge (Todd's son). They have to learn how to stop people. Now.

Preseason Sun Belt Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Rusty Smith, QB, Florida Atlantic
Defensive Player of the Year: Alex Carrington, DE, Arkansas State
Coach of the Year: Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee
Coach on the Hot Seat: Todd Dodge, North Texas
Best non-conference game: Mississippi State at Middle Tennessee, October 17
Worst non-conference game: Mississippi Valley State at Arkansas State, September 5

College Football 2009: SEC

Fab Four: Top Storylines in the SEC

Florida's drive. One of the commonly-held beliefs that runs against the chances of a team repeating a championship is that teams that win become complacent. No such problem with the Gators, thanks to coach Urban Meyer and quarterback Tim Tebow. The Gators were put through an insane offseason program, with the idea being to keep their focus and make sure they were ready to compete for another championship. Is it enough? Most people believe so, considering the Gators return their entire two-deep on defense -- led by guys like linebacker Brandon Spikes and cornerback Joe Haden -- and have a two-time national champion quarterback who is digging for a second Heisman while chasing the label of "greatest college football player ever." There is speed and high-level talent all over the field, and ringleader Meyer isn't taking his foot off the gas. To add to things, the verbal war Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin started with pretty much the entire city of Gainesville can only help the Gators in their preparation. If Florida fails to win again this year, it will likely be due to injuries or the fact that Meyer's master motivation plan didn't work the way he envisioned.

Lane Kiffin's mouth. While it was welcomed with open arms by success-hungry Tennessee fans, Kiffin's bombastic presence has created waves elsewhere in the SEC. He ticked off Florida with allegations of cheating, and he told a recruit that if he went to South Carolina he'd be "pumping gas for the rest of his life." Kiffin was right in that his program was in dire need of the kind of recruits national attention can bring you, but it wasn't a good first impression to make on the rest of the league. Now, it's up to Kiffin's players, many of whom will be first-year college athletes, to make the coach look good. It's expected that Jonathan Crompton will start at quarterback again, and upperclassmen like Austin Rogers and Joff Cottam present the top targets for the senior. Their job will be to reignite an offense that scored two touchdowns per game fewer than the year before. Because of that, one of the nation's better defenses could do nothing about the Vols' poor season.

LSU on the rebound. In Les Miles' first three seasons at LSU, he lost a total of six games. In 2008, the Tigers lost five, including blowout losses to Georgia and Mississippi at Tiger Stadium. Former Tennessee assistant John Chavis -- architect of the aforementioned top-notch Volunteer defense -- takes over the LSU defense this year. Improvement should be swift, as the Tigers have the athletes to play the same kind of defense they played during their national championship season of 2007. It doesn't hurt that Chavis can build his scheme around guys like All-America caliber defensive end Rahim Alem, a pass-rushing machine. Offensively, the Tigers were solid last year, and should only improve as sophomore quarterback Jordan Jefferson continues to develop. He hit just under 50 percent of his throws as a true freshman, so he really has nowhere to go but up as a passer. His athleticism is superb, but that doesn't matter if he can't throw accurately. Expect another big season from receiver Brandon LaFell.

Mississippi goes Nutts. Ole Miss' turning point came in The Swamp. After a so-so 2-2 start that included a home loss to Vanderbilt, the Rebels headed to Florida. A game against the fourth-ranked Gators showed Ole Miss as a 22-point underdog, but they didn't care. Head coach Houston Nutt got his team ready, and they played with poise and determination against a foe thought to be far superior. Thanks to some uncharacteristic Florida mistakes and the ability of Jevan Snead to direct the offense, the Rebels upset Florida 31-30. It was the turning point for two teams, as the Gators went on their national title run from that point, and the Rebels would lost just two more games (the next two they played, actually, to South Carolina and Alabama). A 31-13 win at LSU cemented the rally, and the Rebels went on to beat Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. It was an impressive rally from a slow start, and Ole Miss fans hope it's just the springboard to a bigger season in 2009. Snead is back, as is wide receiver/slotback Dexter McCluster. He teams with Cordera Eason to provide the punch on the ground, as well as working as a top receiver. Athletes like Kentrell Lockett, Marcus Tillman, and Kendrick Lewis lead the way on defense. If Ole Miss can survive a home gauntlet that includes Alabama, Tennessee, and LSU, they are in great position to play for the SEC title.

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It will be very difficult to replace Matthew Stafford at Georgia. However, fifth-year senior Joe Cox has a great grasp of Mark Richt's offense, and he appears to have gained quick acceptance as the new leader. ... No one could have guessed that Steve Spurrier would have so many problems at the quarterback position. Everything else at South Carolina appears to be in good shape, but if he can't find a way to get sophomore Stephen Garcia (pictured) to play more consistently, it's going to be a long season. ... Despite having nearly everything against him, including probation, when he started, Rich Brooks has done a great job at Kentucky. His team has rewarded him with three straight bowl trips, even though they've struggled against the SEC elite. Junior quarterback Mike Hartline returns, and most of his weapons are back with him. ... Vanderbilt broke a 26-year bowl drought last year, and beat Boston College in the Music City Bowl. They did it on the strength of a defense that only allowed 19.6 points per game. A bowl repeat is a possibility, as nine starters are back on that side of the ball. However, the Commodores need more of an offensive contribution to fight off a tough schedule. ... For Alabama, it was a sour ending to a storybook season. The Tide were 12-0 before an SEC Championship loss to Florida and a Sugar Bowl waxing by Utah. After the Utes walked all over the defense, that unit should be plenty motivated to rebound. They'll need to, as seven starters -- including quarterback John Parker Wilson, running back Glen Coffee, and mammoth tackle Andre Smith -- are lost from the offense. ... It didn't take Bobby Petrino long to get settled in at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are loaded on both sides of the ball, and Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett takes over the offense. It might be too much to ask for Arkansas to crack the upper half of this loaded division, but this team is capable if they get some breaks. ... Things are a bit of a mess at Mississippi State, but they won't be for long. Former Florida assistant Dan Mullen takes over, bringing in his spread offense. Once he finds a quarterback, the Bulldogs will be on the rise ... Snickers came from all over the college football world when Auburn hired Gene Chizik -- 4-19 as a head coach -- to take over for the fired Tommy Tuberville. Stranger things have happened than Chizik being successful, but it looks like it might be a couple years before the Tigers can catch up with the rest of the West.

Preseason SEC Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Defensive Player of the Year: Rahim Alem, DE, LSU
Coach of the Year: Houston Nutt, Mississippi
Coach on the Hot Seat: Les Miles, LSU
Best non-conference game: Georgia at Oklahoma State, September 5
Worst non-conference game: Charleston Southern at Florida, September 5

Monday, August 17, 2009

College Football 2009: Pac 10

Fab Four: Top Storylines in the Pac-10

Futility in the Pacific Northwest. It's simply amazing how far Washington and Washington State have fallen. As recently as 2002, both were in prominent bowl games, as Washington played in the Sun Bowl and Washington State earned a Rose Bowl berth. Last season, they combined for just two wins (both by Washington State), and may have been the two worst teams in all of Division I-A (er, FBS). Washington was outscored by an average of 38.6-13.3, while Washington State was even more hopelessly inept, losing by an average of 43.8-12.7. Paul Wulff is in the second year of his Wazzu rebuilding effort, and you can expect them to be more competitive, even if they only win two or three games. Meanwhile, Washington hired former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian to pick up the pieces from the Tyrone Willingham disaster. If Sarkisian gets a full season out of junior quarterback Jake Locker, and his team can survive the LSU/USC/Stanford/Notre Dame gauntlet (latter two on the road) over the first five weeks of the season, the Huskies could surprise.

USC's dominance continues. They've done it all before. Whether you ask the Trojans to replace top defensive players who have moved on to the NFL, top offensive players, or top coaches, they do it almost seamlessly. Would you have ever known Matt Leinart left, or Carson Palmer before that? Did the defense skip a beat after Shaun Cody, Mike Patterson, or Troy Polamalu moved on? It's all old hat for Pete Carroll, who simply restocks at key positions with the top recruits in the country. Out goes Mark Sanchez, and in comes either Aaron Corp or Matt Barkley. Lost Rey Maualuga, Clay Matthews, and Brian Cushing, that's fine. They'll just plug in Malcolm Smith, Marquis Simmons, Chris Galippo, and Michael Morgan. Senior safety Taylor Mays returns after an All-America season, and there's no question he will be the leader of the defense. Whether Corp or Barkley start the opener against San Jose State, Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable, and Joe McKnight will play a huge role in the offense. When they leave, Carroll will just move down the line and put the next great Trojan in the starting lineup.

Cal returns to contention. If a 6-3 conference record equates the end of a down spell, most teams would love the down spell. For California, a return to conference title contention is likely to happen this year. The Bears need to pick a quarterback -- bet on Kevin Riley holding the job this time. Of course, a big part of Riley's job will be to simply turn around and give the rock to Jahvid Best. The 1,580-yard rusher returns for his junior season as a top Heisman contender. He shouldn't have to carry the offense, as senior receivers Nyan Boateng and Verran Tucker both return. Look out for freshman tight end Spencer Ladner, who has the potential to be a really good player. The defense was a rock last year, allowing only 315 yards per game. They could actually improve, thanks to a group of eight returning starters that includes top cornerbacks Syd'Quan Thompson and Darian Hagan, along with pass-rushing tackle Tyson Alualu. A schedule that includes visits from USC and Oregon State is favorable for a conference title run, but it's doubtful the Bears will actually topple the USC machine.

Is Stanford ready? Many -- mainly Michigan fans -- have ripped coach Jim Harbaugh for his rather brash nature when speaking in public. What the detractors can't deny is that he's worked hard to point the Stanford program in the right direction. After inheriting a team that was outscored by an average of three touchdowns per game in 2006, Harbaugh has taken on the slow build to respectability. The Cardinal were virtually even with their opponents in points last year, and the offense has improved by 120 yards per game over two seasons. The next step is to take the next step, and get this program into a bowl game for the first time since the 2001 Seattle Bowl. Redshirt freshman Andrew Luck is the new starting quarterback, with two-year starter Tavita Pritchard now a backup. Luck has to get comfortable in a hurry, as the Cardinal play their first two on the road. Seven home games out of the last ten will follow that, and the ability to navigate through some tough games (seven opponents won bowl games last year) will determine Stanford's bowl viability.

Best of the rest

UCLA thinks they can make a run at USC this year. Redshirt freshman Kevin Prince is expected to stabilize a quarterback position that was responsible for just eight touchdown passes and 21 interceptions last year. All the other pieces are in place on offense for serious improvement. ... It's nice to see multiple preseason rags saluting Oregon State coach Mike Riley. His teams are never picked to finish high in the Pac-10, but they're always competitive. Jacquizz Rodgers tries to build off a magical freshman season in 2009. He ran for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. ... Arizona lost star quarterback Willie Tuitama off their eight-win squad, but junior running back Nic Grigsby returns. The defense, stellar in the second half of their bowl win against BYU, has seven starters back. ... Mike Bellotti is now the athletic director at Oregon, leaving the head coaching duties to former offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Kelly inherits some great talent, especially on offense, but it's a daunting schedule that starts with a Thursday night opener at Boise State. ... A subpar 5-7 season included a stunning home loss to UNLV and a blowout loss at Arizona. For Arizona State, it could be a bit of a long road back. They have a strong front seven on defense, and only a trip to Georgia is terribly daunting among the Sun Devils' first six games. A 5-1 or 4-2 start may lead to a better season than expected.

Preseason Pac 10 Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Jahvid Best, RB, California
Defensive Player of the Year: Taylor Mays, S, USC
Coach of the Year: Rick Neuheisel, UCLA
Coach on the Hot Seat: Paul Wulff, Washington State
Best non-conference game: USC at Ohio State, September 12
Worst non-conference game: Idaho State at Arizona State, September 5

Sunday, August 16, 2009

College Football 2009: Mountain West

Fab Four: Top Storylines in Mountain West

Will the BYU line hold up? No one can question the quality of talent BYU has in their offensive backfield. The Cougars are blessed with arguably the best quarterback (Max Hall) and running back (Harvey Unga) in the MWC. In order for the two to operate at the highest efficiency, BYU needs to replace four lost starters on the offensive line. The only guy back from last year's starting five is sophomore left tackle Matt Reynolds, a freshman All-American from a year ago who was very good keeping Hall's blind side protected. BYU does have some older players to draw from on the line, including senior center R.J. Willing and junior linemen Jason Speredon and Nick Alletto. One of the reasons Hall was so successful last year was he was only sacked 19 times in 13 games. Six of those came during an embarrassing loss to TCU. While Hall should be able to count on good blind-side protection, BYU will head into the season opener against Oklahoma with some uncertainty up front. It won't be a good way to start the season, but things should be solved by the conference opener against Colorado State.

TCU will be good enough, again. Gary Patterson just finds a way to churn out a quality football team every year, no matter what they lost the year before. Defensively, the Horned Frogs are in for another challenge. In this offense-driven era of college football, TCU has allowed no more than 18.7 points per game in any of the last four seasons. Last season, the Horned Frogs permitted double-digit scoring just six times, with a season-high of 35 allowed to national championship contender Oklahoma. With just four starters back on defense, TCU may have to lean a bit on their offense in 2009. Quarterback Andy Dalton returns, as do leading rusher Joseph Turner and leading wide receivers Jimmy Young and Bart Johnson. After averaging 33 points per game, TCU could be poised for a big offensive year. With trips to Virginia and Clemson among the Frogs' first three games, they're going to need the support as the defense finds itself.

Big year for UNLV. The patience of the UNLV administration is about to be rewarded. After giving football coach Mike Sanford a three-year extension after a 5-7 finish in 2008, the Rebels are ready to take the next step. A defense that had its moments a year ago returns seven starters, including leader and tackling machine Jason Beauchamp. Quarterback Omar Clayton returns, ready to trigger a spread offense that picked up a touchdown per game over 2007, and will only get better as they continue to develop a ground attack. Helping UNLV even more this year will be a schedule that includes seven home games, including three straight to start the season. Games at Wyoming and New Mexico are totally winnable, as are home dates with Sacramento State, Hawaii, San Diego State, and Colorado State. Finding a couple more wins could make for a very big season in Vegas.

Is Brady Hoke the answer? This is a question we may need a few years to answer. Chuck Long tried, but just didn't get much good done at San Diego State. When he left after a 2-10 season in 2008, the Aztec program was very lucky to bring in former Hoke, the former coach at Ball State. Hoke comes in and inherits a stocked cupboard of players looking for some direction. The Aztecs sport a slew of experienced defensive players, and former New Mexico head man Rocky Long will try to get something out of that group. Meanwhile, quarterback Ryan Lindley, wide receiver Vincent Brown, and leading rusher Atiyyah Henderson are all back from last year. Even a marginal improvement means the Aztecs should be able to climb out of the Mountain West cellar. True bowl contention might not come right away, but with Hoke in charge and fully confident in his coaching acumen after a 12-2 season at Ball State, anything can happen.

Best of the rest

Blitz machine Stevenson Sylvester leads a maniacal Utah defense, which hopes to keep the Utes near the top of the Mountain West despite the loss of some key pieces on offense. Expect running back Matt Asiata to be the key guy on offense early in the season. ... Air Force has won 17 games in two years under coach Troy Calhoun. This should be another strong year for the Falcons, who still run the ball as well as anyone, but have integrated a more efficient passing game. ... Nice bowl run for Colorado State under rookie coach Steve Fairchild, but it's going to be tough to repeat that feat. The Rams lost a ton of skill-position talent, along with six starters from a defense that struggled, even when things were going well. ... Mike Locksley takes over at New Mexico, where the Lobos struggled to a 4-8 finish last year. Without defensive ace Long on staff, expect UNM to have issues keeping teams off the scoreboard. Considering that the Lobos haven't averaged 30 points per game since 2003, it could be a long season. ... For Wyoming, the promise of a Las Vegas bowl win back in 2004 has been tempered. The Cowboys are 19-28 since, including 4-8 last year, enough to get coach Joe Glenn fired. Former Missouri assistant Dave Christensen is the new boss. He has 16 starters, but has to find a quarterback and restructure this offense. With Christensen's offensive background, expect it to be a short turnaround, but a tough schedule that includes a visit from Texas and trip to Colorado will keep Wyoming from climbing the ladder right away.

Preseason Mountain West Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Max Hall, QB, BYU
Defensive Player of the Year: Jan Jorgensen, DE, BYU
Coach of the Year: Mike Sanford, UNLV
Coach on the Hot Seat: Mike Sanford, UNLV
Best Non-Conference Game: Oklahoma vs BYU (at Arlington, Tex.), September 5
Worst Non-Conference Game: Nicholls State at Air Force, September 5

Monday, August 10, 2009

College Football 2009: MAC

EAST DIVISION
1. Temple
2. Ohio
3. Bowling Green
4. Buffalo
5. Akron
6. Kent State
7. Miami (Ohio)

WEST DIVISION
1. Central Michigan
2. Western Michigan
3. Toledo
4. Eastern Michigan
5. Northern Illinois
6. Ball State

Fab Four: Top Storylines in MAC

Temple's time. In 2005, Temple went 0-11 and got rid of head coach Bobby Wallace. The Owls hired Al Golden from Virginia, hoping a young coach who was known for his recruiting acumen could lead Temple to the postseason for the first time since 1979. While Golden has fallen short of those hopes in his three years on the job, he has brought the program to the point that it is a serious bowl contender. After a 4-8 season in 2007, many thought Temple had the goods to go bowling last year. However, senior quarterback Adam DiMichele missed three games, the running game never got going, and an improved defense wasn't good enough to get Temple over .500. Heartbreaking losses to Connecticut, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Navy, and Kent State relegated Temple to another losing campaign. Nine starters -- including senior end Junior Galette (pictured) -- return on a defense that should be among the elite in the MAC. Syracuse transfer Lamar McPherson and sophomore Kee-ayre Griffin need to step up in the backfield in support of junior quarterback Vaughn Charlton. Thanks to that defense, the new faces on offense shouldn't have to do much for the Owls to contend in the East.

LeFevour's swan song. For a conference that has produced guys like Byron Leftwich and Ben Roethlisberger, there's some high praise coming for Central Michigan senior Dan LeFevour. Already CMU's all-time career passing leader, now LeFevour has a chance to take the Chippewas to a fourth straight bowl game and cement his status as a high NFL draft pick with another strong season. LeFevour has all the physical tools, and the big question will be how little he gets to play against top competition. Of course, similar fears didn't stop Leftwich or Roethlisberger from being top ten picks. The Chippewas have a very tough schedule, but a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. LeFevour has top receivers Antonio Brown, Bryan Anderson, and Kito Poblah available, and the defense returns ten starters. Among the leaders there are middle linebacker Nick Bellore and defensive end Frank Zombo. If the Chippewas can survive road trips to Arizona, Michigan State, and Boston College in non-conference play, they're a serious threat in the MAC.

Time of transition at Ball State. Brady Hoke came out of nowhere to become a coaching star. Ball State went from 2-9 in 2004 to steady improvement through 2007, then a meteoric rise in 2008. Quarterback Nate Davis and running back MiQuale Lewis led the Cardinals to an amazing 12-2 season, one that was capped by disappointment, both in the MAC title game against Buffalo and the GMAC Bowl against Tulsa. Those two losses, by a combined 87-37, put the brakes on an unbeaten run, and may have signaled the start of a fall. Hoke is gone, having escaped Muncie for the sunnier weather at San Diego State, and coaching veteran Stan Parrish (2-31-1 in his career as a head coach, thanks to a disastrous stint at Kansas State before Bill Snyder revived the program) takes over. Davis is gone, but Lewis remains. However, a defense that was strong against the pass for most of the season is missing nearly their top cornerbacks, and it appears the Cardinals may be starting a redshirt freshman (Kelly Page) in place of Davis. The schedule is easy early on, but Ball State draws Temple, Bowling Green, and Ohio for non-divisional play.

Buffalo tries to follow up on the magic. Turner Gill joins Golden as the up-and-coming stars of the MAC coaching ranks. Gill was a finalist for the Nebraska job in 2007, then Auburn last year. Last year, the Bulls started 2-4, but won six of their last seven games, including the MAC title game over Ball State, to earn a trip to the International Bowl in Toronto. Included in those were three overtime wins -- Army, then Akron in four OTs, and Bowling Green. Donald Brown and Connecticut waxed Buffalo in the bowl game, but UB has some solid players returning. Replacing quarterback Drew Willy is a huge challenge, but the Bulls should still be able to play defense. Linebacker Justin Winters and safeties Davonte Shannon and Mike Newton lead the defense, which does need to get after the quarterback more effectively. If running back James Starks can become the unquestioned leader of the offense, Buffalo should find itself back in the postseason.

Best of the rest

Can Frank Solich lead Ohio back to a bowl game? The Bobcats have 14 starters back, including a two-headed monster at quarterback. Expect Theo Scott and Boo Jackson to share time at the position, with Jackson having gained some real experience last season. They need a big year from the ground game to solidify the offense. ... Bowling Green replaced Gregg Brandon with former Tennessee assistant and Richmond head man Dave Clawson. If he can keep the offense going with senior quarterback Tyler Sheehan, it should buy him some time to renovate a defense decimated by graduation. ... Quarterback Chris Jacquemain (photo) has established himself as the top guy at Akron. Coach J.D. Brookhart now has to find someone to run the ball. Dennis Kennedy departs after a 1,300-yard season, leaving the reins to freshman DeVoe Torrence. The Zips have to plug some leaks on defense, but Jacquemain could lead them to surprise contention in the East. ... For Kent State, losing Julian Edelman could be disastrous. Or maybe it won't be. It could be argued that the Golden Flashes relied too much on their quarterback, and didn't get the ball in the hands of diminutive playmaker Eugene Jarvis nearly enough when he was healthy. That should change now that Edelman is gone, and coach Doug Martin hopes to develop a multi-faceted offense. ... Former Notre Dame assistant Mike Haywood takes over at Miami after a 2-10 season, the RedHawks' second such finish in three years. To avoid a repeat, Haywood has to find a quarterback and clean house on defense, where Miami was awful a year ago. ... A blowout loss in the Texas Bowl didn't destroy the season for Western Michigan, but it was a bad way to end things. The defense that Rice shredded will look completely different this fall, thanks to at least eight new starters. Luckily for the Broncos, quarterback Tim Hiller and running back Brandon West return on the other side of the ball. ... Tom Amstutz is done at Toledo after 30 years with the program, and former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Tim Beckman takes over. There is some talent to work with after a tough 3-9 season, but nothing will matter if the Rockets can get that defense going. Beckman will play a huge role in this. ... Ron English moves from Ann Arbor to nearby Ypsilanti, as he is the new head man at Eastern Michigan. Quarterback Andy Schmitt and eight other starters are back on offense, and English -- a defensive coordinator by trade -- gets to try to rebuild a defense that has been simply awful for many years. ... Youth ruled at Northern Illinois, as freshman quarterback Chandler Harnish and freshman running back Me'co Brown helped the Huskies go bowling. The defense was stellar, allowing just 18 points per game, but they have to replace seven starters.

Preseason Mid-American Conference Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan
Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bellore, LB, Central Michigan
Coach of the Year: Al Golden, Temple
Coach on the Hot Seat: Doug Martin, Kent State
Best non-conference game: Colorado at Toledo, September 11
Worst non-conference game: Alcorn State at Central Michigan, September 19

Friday, August 07, 2009

College Football 2009: Conference USA

The Fab Four: Top Storylines in Conference USA

Southern Mississippi's no-huddle machine. When USM fired Jeff Bower after 17 loyal and generally productive seasons, many -- including your humble correspondent -- wondered what the hell they were thinking. Larry Fedora brought a wide-open offense to Hattiesburg, which seemed to run a bit in contrast to their talent. No worries, though, because Fedora simply started a freshmen at quarterback (Austin Davis) and wide receiver (DeAndre Brown). Obviously, Brown's gruesome leg injury and his long recovery are huge storylines, but Fedora has a year's worth of recruits now, and this offense is only going to get stronger as Davis gains more experience running it. As a freshman, he threw eight picks in 454 passes, so he's certainly got a strong foundation to build from. With two-time All-Conference USA First Team running back Damion Fletcher beside Davis, the Golden Eagles possess one of the strongest backfields in the league. If Brown is healthy and able to play, the offense is going to be insane. Without him, they should still be able to improve on the 30.6 points per game they averaged in 2006.

Can UTEP play defense? It's the $64,000 question for this year's Miners. In 2005, UTEP made it to the GMAC bowl after an eight-win season in which they allowed around 26 points per game. While the offense has been pretty steady, save for a bit of a lapse in 2006, the defense has been absolutely awful since. They have allowed 37 points per game over the last two seasons, posing a 9-15 record, and until things get better on that side of the ball, Mike Price won't take this program anywhere. Trevor Vittatoe is back to throw to the likes of Kris Adams and Jeff Moturi, and an improved running game should make for a very strong offense again this season. The defense returns seven starters, and if they can find a way to improve their front seven, things are looking up. Allowing opposing rushing attacks to gain five yards per carry won't get you to the top of the league, nor will it get you a postseason bid. New defensive coordinator Rocky Long shouldn't have to do much to field an improved unit from last year.

Year 2 better than Year 1? For SMU and June Jones, it wouldn't take much. The Mustangs were miserable in 2008, but the 1-11 finish wasn't a complete throwaway for Jones, who took a lucrative offer to move to the mainland from Hawai'i. SMU still has some serious problems on defense, but they were able to find the triggerman for Jones' run-and-shoot attack. While Bo Levi Mitchell did throw a nation-leading 23 interceptions, he also took command of a offense tough to execute without experience. Jones will cut Mitchell's interceptions and bad throws down significantly. A full offseason to work with a group of receivers that returns intact from 2008 will help, as will the increased confidence that is undoubtedly coming as Mitchell spends more time in the offense. The Mustangs averaged a non-existent 41 yards per game rushing last year, topped 100 exactly once (against Tulsa), and won't go anywhere until they get better blocking and better running. Put it all together, and Jones can find a way to keep his beleagured defense off the field. That unit allowed at least 200 yards rushing in seven of 12 games, and they got torched for over 250 passing yards six times. Ouch.

Tulsa reloads again. Paul Smith left, but the Golden Hurricane didn't miss a beat. David Johnson stepped in as a senior, tossing for over 4,000 yards and 46 touchdowns. While leading receiver Brennan Marion and Johnson are both gone, as is star back Tarrion Adams, Tulsa expects to be able to field a potent offense again this year. Junior Jacob Bower heads a three-way battle for the starting job under center, but whoever wins the job will be under the gun right away. Tulsa opens with three straight road games and four out of five. While one of those is against beatable Tulane, the others are against New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Rice, and it isn't inconceivable that the Hurricane will start 3-2 or 2-3. The good news? Tulsa has just two road games after that. Bad? Those are against UTEP and Southern Mississippi.

Best of the rest

A loaded West Division looks like a wide-open race, but Houston should be considered a serious favorite. The Cougars have all the pieces for a dominant offense, thanks to quarterback Case Keenum, sophomore running back Bryce Beall, and receivers like L.J. Castile, Tyron Carrier, and Patrick Edwards. The three receivers (two of whom are sophomores) combined for over 150 receptions and more than 2,000 yards in 2008. ... Rice won a school-record ten games last year, but will fall off notably this season. Starting quarterback Chase Clement and top receivers Jarrett Dillard and James Casey (combined 198 catches for over 2,600 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2008) are all gone. While nine starters are back on defense, the Owls will need to allow a lot less than 33 points per game if they are to post another winning season. ... Bob Toledo is just spinning his wheels at Tulane. A 6-18 record over two years highlights virtually no on-field progress. The Green Wave continue to struggle on both sides of the ball, and while there is some nice young talent, Toledo appears to still be a year or two from leading the Green Wave to bowl contention. ... Off a nine-win season, East Carolina is in position for bigger and better things. What should be a season-long battle with USM for the East Division title could come down to a Nov. 28 meeting in Greenville. Roadies to West Virginia, North Carolina, Memphis, and Tulsa will test ECU before that big game. Senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney will look for a big season to close out his career with the Pirates. ... Just 16-31 in four years, Mark Snyder is in a bit of trouble at Marshall. Thundering Herd fans have come to expect more out of this program, which hasn't been to a bowl since 2004. He has to solve his team's quarterback problem before that will happen. The Herd were not good there in 2008, and we'll see if junior Brian Anderson can win the job and play well this season. ... If they can survive the always-tough non-conference schedule and an insane Conference USA schedule rotation, Memphis could be a surprise contender. Expect the Tigers to field one of the better secondaries in the league, led by senior safety Alton Starr and free safety DeRon Furr, an Auburn transfer. Not only does Memphis get Mississippi and Tennessee in non-conference play, but they also have to deal with Houston, Tulsa, and UTEP from the CUSA West Division. ... Central Florida's defense wasn't the problem last year. An offense that averaged 230 total yards and just 16.6 points per game was. Finding some sort of way to score points will be huge for UCF. They lose some talented guys from the defense, including cornerback Joe Burnett, but they do have nine starters back on offense, including all the skill-position talent. ... UAB fans should be treated to a better product this season, even if it doesn't translate to a lot of wins. Neil Callaway is in his third year, and now has a ton of his own talent to work with. Quarterback Joe Webb has to cut down on his mistakes, and it would help if they found more ways to get running back Rashaud Slaughter the ball.

Conference USA Preseason Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Case Keenum, QB, Houston
Defensive Player of the Year: Eddie Hicks, S, Southern Mississippi
Coach of the Year: Mike Price, UTEP
Coach on the Hot Seat: Mark Snyder, Marshall
Best non-conference game: Texas Tech at Houston, September 26
Worst non-conference game: Sam Houston State at Tulsa, September 26

Thursday, July 30, 2009

College Football 2009: Big 12

Fab Four: Top Storylines in Big 12

Bradford vs. McCoy/Oklahoma vs. Texas may have company. There are many schools of thought on this year's Big 12 race. In the reading I've done, the most popular one is that the Texas/Oklahoma game in Dallas will decide the Big 12 South title.

While it makes perfect sense, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy aren't the only big-time players in this division race. Don't sleep on Zac Robinson.

Once best known as the guy Mike "I'm a Man! I'm 40!" Gundy elevated to starting quarterback ahead of Bobby Reid, Robinson is poised to do his most damage yet as a senior. Top receiver Dez Bryant returns, as does dynamic leading rusher Kendall Hunter. The defense will (not "might") be much improved, and Oklahoma State gets Texas, Texas Tech, and Colorado at home in conference play.

As for Oklahoma, they should have a strong defense, but can the offensive line come anywhere near last year's performance. A huge part of Bradford's Heisman credentials came from the fact he was only sacked 11 times in 13 games before the national championship. Bradford gets left tackle Trent Williams back, but every other starter will be new.

Texas has McCoy -- almost a shoo-in for a trip to New York in December -- and he has his entire offense back after averaging over 42 points per game last year. The Longhorns' defense looks to be potentially phenomenal, too.

Are the Blackshirts back? Brothers Bo (head coach) and Carl (defensive coordinator) Pelini have only been on the job in Lincoln for one year, but results are already starting to show. The Cornhuskers shaved more than a touchdown per game and almost 125 yards per game off their hideous 2007 numbers. Not only that, but the rush yards per game were cut exactly in half between 2007 and 2008.

Nebraska is now ready for a defensive breakout, as the Cornhuskers return the entire secondary and seven total starters from last year. Chief among these returnees are senior safeties Larry Asante and Matt O'Hanlon, along with senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The Pelinis understand that there is only so much they can do at once, but getting this defense to play again at a high level is a huge part of restoring the pride in Nebraska football. What happens on offense isn't at all insignificant, but it does take a back seat to the work being done by the defense.

Bill Snyder's return. When Kansas State jettisoned Ron Prince, no one knew that they had this in mind. Snyder turns 70 during the season, he says he won't stay long, but he is indeed back. His previous K-State stint saw him win 136 games and perform well enough to have the football stadium named after his family. He told ESPN earlier this month that he'll stick around "as long as it takes" to get the program on solid footing. Of course, he did also said he wouldn't stay long, which implies that he is very confident in his own skills, and he must think Prince was totally incompetent.

Snyder's defense is fast and experienced, though not blessed with awe-inspiring size. There's no way K-State allows 35 points per game again. The problem could come with an offense that was good last year, but lost its triggerman when Josh Freeman went to the NFL. If the Wildcats can find a way to protect new starter Daniel Thomas, they should have a good chance to return to the postseason.

Then we can see next year how Snyder does coaching Prince's recruits.

The rise of Baylor has begun. A little-known freshman named Robert Griffin took over as Baylor's starter not long after the season opened with a disastrous 41-13 home loss to Wake Forest. Yes, the Bears again slumped to a losing season, finishing 4-8, but Griffin was a great find and a perfect fit for Art Briles' spread offense.

Griffin is a great athlete, but showed himself to also be a tough kid and a mature leader for Baylor. He totaled nearly 3,000 yards (combined passing and rushing), scored 28 touchdowns (15 passing, 13 rushing) and tossed just three picks in 267 throws. All of a sudden, Baylor football was becoming exciting, and much more competitive.

The transition continues in 2009, as Griffin has all his key weapons back, an offensive line that's almost completely intact, and should benefit greatly from a full offseason in Briles' scheme. Not only that, but the Bears' defense, which allowed less than 30 points per game for the first time in three years, gets eight starters back, including its top four tacklers. Also returning are team leaders in passes defensed, interceptions, and tackles for loss. While all three non-conference home games should be wins, the Bears will again struggle in Big 12 play, as they're not ready to compete with the likes of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas.

Best of the rest

Kansas should roll on in 2009, thanks to a loaded offense and what should be a much-improved defense. While everyone fawns over guys like Bradford, McCoy, and even Robinson (rightfully so), Todd Reesing is often forgotten as a top college quarterback. ... Quarterback Cody Hawkins took a big step forward for Colorado last year, but the offense as a whole did not. Hawkins' decision-making has to improve so he can avoid the kinds of hits he took in 2008, while giving his playmakers a better chance to do things in the open field. ... Missouri lost a ton from last year's team, including a Heisman candidate at quarterback, the top three receivers, and five of the top eight tacklers. Good luck with that. ... Another new coach at Iowa State. If Paul Rhoads decides to bolt after two seasons, maybe he'll be kind enough to win more than five games before heading out the door. While a losing season is likely, Chizik did leave a stocked cupboard for Rhoads. If he can get his team to play with some confidence defensively, they could build a postseason contender. ... Texas Tech has to replace another quarterback and another receiver. Something tells me it won't be as easy as it sounds or than it has been in the past. Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree weren't just system guys. Well, at least Crabtree wasnt. ... Mike Sherman's tenure at Texas A&M didn't start well, thanks to a home loss to Arkansas State. It doesn't look good this season, either. The Aggies still have some miscast parts on offense, though junior quarterback Jerrod Johnson could be a good one. If they can play a little defense, they may be able to stage a battle for fourth place in the division. That's a big "if", however.

Big 12 Preseason Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Defensive Player of the Year: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Coach of the Year: Dan Hawkins, Colorado
Coach on the Hot Seat: Mike Sherman, Texas A&M
Best non-conference game: BYU vs. Oklahoma (at Arlington), September 5
Worst non-conference game: Northern Colorado at Kansas, September 5