2011 College Football Preview: Conference USA

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

CONFERENCE USA
Predicted Order of Finish
East Division
1. Southern Mississippi
2. Central Florida
3. UAB
4. Marshall
5. East Carolina
6. Memphis
West Division
1. Houston
2. Tulsa
3. SMU
4. Rice
5. Tulane
6. UTEP

Top storylines to watch in Conference USA

Case Keenum's return to a loaded Houston team. Keenum's senior season was cut short last year, so he successfully gained a medical redshirt from the NCAA and is back again. He's already passed Kevin Kolb on Houston's all-time passing yards list, and the NCAA record is within reach if he can make it through this season without any problems. The Cougars need to replace three starters in the secondary, where Texas A&M transfer Colton Valencia becomes eligible at safety. But they have plenty of talent elsewhere, especially with senior receivers Patrick Edwards and Tyron Carrier and senior running back Bryce Beall. Keenum is familiar with this offense, his targets, and he is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Don't count him out of the Heisman race if he can stay healthy, and don't count Houston out as a darkhorse BCS contender. With UCLA, East Carolina, and SMU at home, the schedule is incredibly manageable. A Nov. 26 game at Tulsa will likely decide the division title.

Can Tulsa get by Houston in the West? Change came at a bad time for the Golden Hurricane, as Todd Graham's move to Pittsburgh came right before signing day. That shouldn't greatly impact this year's team, as UT returns 18 starters, including ten on offense. The lead dog is quarterback G.J. Kinne, who has flourished since transferring from Texas. Kinne pitched 31 touchdown passes last year, and still found time to lead the team with 561 rushing yards. Tulsa used a committee approach to running the ball last year, with three backs totaling at least 335 yards as the team averaged over 200 yards per game on the ground. Look for sophomore Trey Watts to carry more of that load this season. New coach Bill Blankenship has plenty of experience in the program, but this is his first rodeo as a college head coach. He sure has a lot of players who have played significant snaps in the past, but that's not a guarantee of anything in a division which includes Houston and SMU. Another double-digit win season looks likely, but the non-conference schedule may prevent that in the end.

Southern Miss tries to bust the BCS, too. Houston isn't the only team capable of a big season in 2011. Southern Mississippi has pieces in place on both sides of the ball, along with a pretty favorable schedule. Quarterback Austin Davis is in position to break Brett Favre's USM career passing record early in the season, sophomore Kendrick Hardy could be on the verge of stardom, and wide receivers Kelvin Bolden and Quentin Pierce are all returning from last year's team, which averaged nearly 37 points per game. The defense should be better, thanks to seven returning starters, including the top four tacklers and star linebacker Korey Williams, who plays all over the field. The favorable schedule includes only one real tough non-conference game (at Virginia), along with a bunch of winnable games at home (SMU, Central Florida, Rice). It's not inconceivable that USM could meet Houston in a battle of 12-0 teams for the Conference USA title.

Can UAB get to a bowl? Last year, Alabama-Birmingham showed improvement in many areas, but still took a step back in record, going from 5-7 in 2009 to 4-8. The school decided to keep coach Neil Callaway, who has the lowest salary of CUSA coaches, and possibly the worst facilities to work with. Despite those handicaps, the Blazers could be improved enough to qualify for a bowl this season. It helps that teams like East Carolina, Marshall, and Memphis are still in a bit of transition in the East Division. UAB has to deal with non-division games against Tulsa and Houston, but they get Southern Miss and Central Florida at home, and senior quarterback Bryan Ellis returns to lead the offense. His line is virtually intact in front of him, including senior left tackle Matt McCants. Expect Ellis to be more efficient, and the running game will improve. Callaway's defense gets a jolt with new coordinator Tommy West (former Memphis coach), and it helps that West gets to work with nine returning starters.

The Rest of the Story

After an 11-win season, Central Florida only has ten starters back. Luckily for George O'Leary, one of them is sophomore quarterback Jeff Godfrey, who is only going to get better after a very good freshman campaign. ... Marshall has to replace quarterback Brian Anderson, but I still think they could find a way to a bowl game, assuming they survive an incredibly difficult league schedule that includes non-division games against Tulsa and Houston, both on the road ... A tough non-conference schedule (South Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Navy) could keep East Carolina from going bowling, but it also doesn't help that a defense that allowed 44 points per game lost four starters off the front seven. Big things will happen with Dominique Davis back to lead the offense, though. ... They won one game last year, and Memphis is not going to be good this year, either. Larry Porter's rebuilding job continues with another season of double-digit losses more than likely here. ... Expect huge numbers out of June Jones' offense in year three at SMU. He finally has the personnel he wants in place at all the key positions. That said, their defense still won't be good enough to overcome Houston and Tulsa, both of whom SMU plays on the road. ... Rice could be a surprise team, but it will take a Herculean effort out of their defense. Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie and sophomore Taylor McHargue are more than capable offensive stars, and the Owls could very well hit 35-40 points per game. The problem is that they're also likely to allow those types of numbers. ... Steady improvement has been the way at Tulane recently, but it's time to make a real move in the right direction. Bob Toledo gets 14 starters back, and one of them is emerging star back Orleans Darkwa. He also gets leading tackler Trent Mackey back on defense, and both units should improve statistically. ... Mike Price only has two starters back on offense at UTEP. All-time leading passer Trevor Vittatoe departs, as does leading receiver Kris Adams. The Miners might have to ride their defense, which gets nine starters back and might take a huge leap forward from the average unit they had a year ago.

College Football 2010: Conference USA

Yes, we're doing a College Football Preview again. Yes, you know I love Phil Steele's work. Order from his plethora of preview options here. I'm also armed with The Sporting News College Football 2010, and I picked up the Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook this year, too. I've also done research through local newspapers and school websites to try to get the most up-to-date information on the teams.

Conference USA
East Division
1. Southern Mississippi
2. Central Florida
3. UAB
4. Marshall
5. East Carolina
6. Memphis

West Division
1. Houston
2. Tulsa
3. UTEP
4. SMU
5. Rice
6. Tulane

Stories to Watch in Conference USA

Keenum's Heisman Case. Yes, it's a bad play on words, but it was done for the best quarterback you may not have heard of if you're a power conference elitist. Houston quarterback Case Keenum has virtually no business playing college football, but you could argue the unfinished business is what brought him back. The Cougars were thought to be a BCS-buster team before they got blown out at UTEP after upset wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Then they lost to East Carolina in the Conference USA title game, and were blown out by Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, in a game where Keenum threw six of his 15 picks for the season. Keenum is also within reach of a number of records. He is 14 yards away from passing Kevin Kolb for the school's all-time career passing record. He's 4,167 yards away from Timmy Chang's NCAA record, a number easily within reach since Keenum threw for 5,671 in 2009. The sky's the limit for Keenum, who isn't just another college system product. He's a legitimate NFL candidate, and this Houston team is a legitimate Top 25 threat. Keenum has receivers James Cleveland, Tyron Carrier, and Patrick Edwards to throw to, and running backs Bryce Beall and Charles Sims both return. If the Cougars can get their defense to stop people, this team could be in a major bowl this winter.

Ruffin McNeill and Doc Holliday get their shots. It's been a long time coming for two veteran college coaches. McNeill got a taste of being a head coach when Texas Tech named him as the interim replacement for Mike Leach when the latter was suspended before the Red Raiders' bowl game last season. After Leach and his staff were let go, McNeill got the head job at alma mater East Carolina, replacing new South Florida coach Skip Holtz. McNeill has some work to do, as longtime starting quarterback Patrick Pinkney as he installs the wide-open offense he saw become so successful at Texas Tech. Meanwhile, longtime college assistant Holliday got the job at Marshall, replacing the canned Mark Snyder. Marshall has fallen quite a bit under Snyder, going 22-37 after being a perennial bowl team since their ascension to Division I-A. Holliday takes over a team that surged late last season, qualifying for and winning a bowl game to finish 7-6. Now, he has to guide this team through a brutal schedule that includes Ohio State and West Virginia in the first two games. As they try to build depth all along the roster, expect them to rely on senior Brian Anderson to lead the offense. Clemson transfer Willy Korn couldn't win the job, so Holliday moved the senior to safety. The Thundering Herd and Pirates are both in good hands, even if neither is a serious East Division contender this year.

Tulsa's quick rebound? After back-to-back campaigns with double-digit wins, Tulsa slipped to a 5-7 record last year. They lost some insanely close games to teams like Boise State and Houston, but also got blown out at home by East Carolina and finished 1-6 after a 4-1 start. The rebound for Todd Graham should be pretty quick. The Golden Hurricane are likely bowl-bound again this year, thanks to an experienced quarterback and more consistent defense. G.J. Kinne will be better this year, thanks to a ground game that can only get better this year. The 'Cane was led in rushing by Kinne, who didn't even top 400 yards on the season. They have to run the ball better, and they will. Where Tulsa will really get better is in the passing game. Kinne had his moments where he looked every bit the rusty quarterback who had sat out two seasons (redshirt and transfer seasons). He has almost all his receivers back, including Damaris Johnson and Trae Johnson, both of whom have plenty of experience in this offense.

Interesting East Division race. It's hard to tell what to think about the East Division. On one hand, there's Southern Mississippi, long a tough team to knock out of this race, but still looking for their first Conference USA title in the two-division format. In the other corner sits Central Florida, a program marked lately by its inconsistency. The Knights haven't posted back-to-back winning seasons under George O'Leary, alternating between losing and winning records. Last year, UCF went 8-5. USM has the more balanced offense, despite losing running back Damion Fletcher. Look out for redshirt freshman Kendrick Hardy, who could be a big-time player. The Golden Eagles have to decide on a quarterback, as both Austin Davis and Martevious Young have starting experience. Coach Larry Fedora seems inclined to go with Davis, but Young will get a chance to play. He's a better athlete, but not by much, and Davis is a bit more accurate with his throws. At UCF, there are questions in the offensive backfield. O'Leary has said both Rob Calabrese and true freshman Jeffrey Godfrey will play at quarterback this season. Godfrey is probably more talented, but Calabrese has more experience and is looking to rebound after a slow start led to his benching last year. At running back, Brynn Harvey banged up his knee in spring practice and will miss at least a month to start the season. Look for Jonathan Davis to start, and for there to be a dropoff in ability there. Harvey is quite talanted, and UCF will struggle to make due without him while also dealing with a quarterback controversy. UCF's defense is also in need of a rebuild. The two meet in Orlando come November, in a game likely to decide the division's representative in the Conference USA Championship.

Best of the rest
Now without Joe Webb, UAB looks to make another step forward in their rebuilding. Coach Neil Callaway likes sophomore David Isabelle, and while Webb was a great player for the Blazers, it might benefit them to not have him around as the centerpiece of the offense. Look for the ball to get spread around more now. ... Memphis also debuts a new coach, as they hired an African American Larry Porter, who also happens to be the first alum to take the helm of their football program. There's a lot of work here, as the Tigers were 2-10 and are very low on quality depth. ... There's pressure on UTEP coach Mike Price this year. And there should be. The Miners have a talented and experienced quarterback in Trevor Vittatoe, and they have yet to even get to bowl game with him. This is their last chance, and it may be Price's. ... June Jones has worked his magic again. Somehow, despite using a true freshman quarterback for the second half of the season, Jones got SMU to a bowl game, and they routed Nevada in the Hawai'i Bowl. Kyle Padron gets a whole season this time, and big things could be coming to Dallas. ... Rice returns 18 starters this year, and they should be significantly better than last year. The Owls started 0-8 last year, and hope to build off a modest 2-2 record to close the season. Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi is likely to start at quarterback. ... Bob Toledo's work has just started at Tulane. Now that he is happier with the competition on the roster, Toledo needs the team to perform better on the field. Just five wins over the last two years don't lead to many expectations.

Preseason Conference USA Superlatives
Best QB: Case Keenum, Houston
Best RB: Donald Buckram, UTEP
Best WR: James Cleveland, Houston
Best offense: Houston
Best defense: Central Florida
Best coach: Kevin Sumlin, Houston
Coach in the most trouble: Bob Toledo, Tulane
Best non-conference matchup: Houston at UCLA, Sept. 18
Worst non-conference matchup: Central Arkansas at Tulsa, Sept. 25

College Football 2009: Conference USA

This year's College Football Preview uses information gathered from many sources. As usual, my full endorsement goes to Phil Steele and his College Football Preview, which is the most comprehensive publication of its kind available. I also used The Sporting News College Football Preview, along with school websites and local newspapers, in my research for these preview posts. Please contact me ASAP if you have updated information that can be used to make this work more accurate.

EAST DIVISION
1. Southern Mississippi
2. East Carolina
3. Memphis
4. Marshall
5. Central Florida
6. UAB

WEST DIVISION
1. Houston
2. UTEP
3. Tulsa
4. SMU
5. Rice
6. Tulane

The Fab Four: Top Storylines in Conference USA

Southern Mississippi's no-huddle machine. When USM fired Jeff Bower after 17 loyal and generally productive seasons, many -- including your humble correspondent -- wondered what the hell they were thinking. Larry Fedora brought a wide-open offense to Hattiesburg, which seemed to run a bit in contrast to their talent. No worries, though, because Fedora simply started a freshmen at quarterback (Austin Davis) and wide receiver (DeAndre Brown). Obviously, Brown's gruesome leg injury and his long recovery are huge storylines, but Fedora has a year's worth of recruits now, and this offense is only going to get stronger as Davis gains more experience running it. As a freshman, he threw eight picks in 454 passes, so he's certainly got a strong foundation to build from. With two-time All-Conference USA First Team running back Damion Fletcher beside Davis, the Golden Eagles possess one of the strongest backfields in the league. If Brown is healthy and able to play, the offense is going to be insane. Without him, they should still be able to improve on the 30.6 points per game they averaged in 2006.

Can UTEP play defense? It's the $64,000 question for this year's Miners. In 2005, UTEP made it to the GMAC bowl after an eight-win season in which they allowed around 26 points per game. While the offense has been pretty steady, save for a bit of a lapse in 2006, the defense has been absolutely awful since. They have allowed 37 points per game over the last two seasons, posing a 9-15 record, and until things get better on that side of the ball, Mike Price won't take this program anywhere. Trevor Vittatoe is back to throw to the likes of Kris Adams and Jeff Moturi, and an improved running game should make for a very strong offense again this season. The defense returns seven starters, and if they can find a way to improve their front seven, things are looking up. Allowing opposing rushing attacks to gain five yards per carry won't get you to the top of the league, nor will it get you a postseason bid. New defensive coordinator Rocky Long shouldn't have to do much to field an improved unit from last year.

Year 2 better than Year 1? For SMU and June Jones, it wouldn't take much. The Mustangs were miserable in 2008, but the 1-11 finish wasn't a complete throwaway for Jones, who took a lucrative offer to move to the mainland from Hawai'i. SMU still has some serious problems on defense, but they were able to find the triggerman for Jones' run-and-shoot attack. While Bo Levi Mitchell did throw a nation-leading 23 interceptions, he also took command of a offense tough to execute without experience. Jones will cut Mitchell's interceptions and bad throws down significantly. A full offseason to work with a group of receivers that returns intact from 2008 will help, as will the increased confidence that is undoubtedly coming as Mitchell spends more time in the offense. The Mustangs averaged a non-existent 41 yards per game rushing last year, topped 100 exactly once (against Tulsa), and won't go anywhere until they get better blocking and better running. Put it all together, and Jones can find a way to keep his beleagured defense off the field. That unit allowed at least 200 yards rushing in seven of 12 games, and they got torched for over 250 passing yards six times. Ouch.

Tulsa reloads again. Paul Smith left, but the Golden Hurricane didn't miss a beat. David Johnson stepped in as a senior, tossing for over 4,000 yards and 46 touchdowns. While leading receiver Brennan Marion and Johnson are both gone, as is star back Tarrion Adams, Tulsa expects to be able to field a potent offense again this year. Junior Jacob Bower heads a three-way battle for the starting job under center, but whoever wins the job will be under the gun right away. Tulsa opens with three straight road games and four out of five. While one of those is against beatable Tulane, the others are against New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Rice, and it isn't inconceivable that the Hurricane will start 3-2 or 2-3. The good news? Tulsa has just two road games after that. Bad? Those are against UTEP and Southern Mississippi.

Best of the rest

A loaded West Division looks like a wide-open race, but Houston should be considered a serious favorite. The Cougars have all the pieces for a dominant offense, thanks to quarterback Case Keenum, sophomore running back Bryce Beall, and receivers like L.J. Castile, Tyron Carrier, and Patrick Edwards. The three receivers (two of whom are sophomores) combined for over 150 receptions and more than 2,000 yards in 2008. ... Rice won a school-record ten games last year, but will fall off notably this season. Starting quarterback Chase Clement and top receivers Jarrett Dillard and James Casey (combined 198 catches for over 2,600 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2008) are all gone. While nine starters are back on defense, the Owls will need to allow a lot less than 33 points per game if they are to post another winning season. ... Bob Toledo is just spinning his wheels at Tulane. A 6-18 record over two years highlights virtually no on-field progress. The Green Wave continue to struggle on both sides of the ball, and while there is some nice young talent, Toledo appears to still be a year or two from leading the Green Wave to bowl contention. ... Off a nine-win season, East Carolina is in position for bigger and better things. What should be a season-long battle with USM for the East Division title could come down to a Nov. 28 meeting in Greenville. Roadies to West Virginia, North Carolina, Memphis, and Tulsa will test ECU before that big game. Senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney will look for a big season to close out his career with the Pirates. ... Just 16-31 in four years, Mark Snyder is in a bit of trouble at Marshall. Thundering Herd fans have come to expect more out of this program, which hasn't been to a bowl since 2004. He has to solve his team's quarterback problem before that will happen. The Herd were not good there in 2008, and we'll see if junior Brian Anderson can win the job and play well this season. ... If they can survive the always-tough non-conference schedule and an insane Conference USA schedule rotation, Memphis could be a surprise contender. Expect the Tigers to field one of the better secondaries in the league, led by senior safety Alton Starr and free safety DeRon Furr, an Auburn transfer. Not only does Memphis get Mississippi and Tennessee in non-conference play, but they also have to deal with Houston, Tulsa, and UTEP from the CUSA West Division. ... Central Florida's defense wasn't the problem last year. An offense that averaged 230 total yards and just 16.6 points per game was. Finding some sort of way to score points will be huge for UCF. They lose some talented guys from the defense, including cornerback Joe Burnett, but they do have nine starters back on offense, including all the skill-position talent. ... UAB fans should be treated to a better product this season, even if it doesn't translate to a lot of wins. Neil Callaway is in his third year, and now has a ton of his own talent to work with. Quarterback Joe Webb has to cut down on his mistakes, and it would help if they found more ways to get running back Rashaud Slaughter the ball.

Conference USA Preseason Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Case Keenum, QB, Houston
Defensive Player of the Year: Eddie Hicks, S, Southern Mississippi
Coach of the Year: Mike Price, UTEP
Coach on the Hot Seat: Mark Snyder, Marshall
Best non-conference game: Texas Tech at Houston, September 26
Worst non-conference game: Sam Houston State at Tulsa, September 26

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: CONFERENCE USA

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

EAST DIVISION
1. Central Florida
2. Marshall
3. East Carolina
4. Memphis
5. Southern Mississippi
6. UAB

WEST DIVISION
1. Tulsa
2. SMU
3. Houston
4. Rice
5. UTEP
6. Tulane

TOP FIVE STORYLINES IN CONFERENCE USA
June Jones to the Metroplex. There was probably no bigger coaching change in college football than this one. SMU's program has been a joke since the Death Penalty sanctions imposed by the NCAA a little more than 20 years ago. They haven't been to a bowl since 1984, and athletic director Steve Orsini finally had enough. He fired Phil Bennett after a 1-6 start to the 2007 season. Then, at the end of the year, he found a way to get June Jones to join his program from Hawai'i. Jones had probably accomplished all he could with the Warriors, thanks to a shoestring budget he was saddled with. At SMU, he'll make some $2 million per year, he has a relatively new on-campus football stadium, and he has a job in one of the richest recruiting bases in the country. So, yeah, this won't take long. Short-term, the prognosis is good. He's got some speed to work with at the skill positions, and he has a junior QB in Justin Willis who has already started 22 games. Shoring up a defense that allowed over 300 passing yards per game last year is the first priority.

Central Florida gets it done with defense. They're going to have to. The two rocks of the Knights' offense last year were RB Kevin Smith (2,567 yards, 30 total TD) and QB Kyle Israel (2,173 yards, 15 TD). Michael Greco, who transferred from NC State in 2005, seems to have the inside track on replacing Israel. Smith's old job is wide-open, with upwards of six players in line for a shot at it in the fall. Meanwhile, George O'Leary has no such problems on the other side of the ball. The Knights return nine starters on what could be Conference USA's top defense, including their top seven tacklers. Also back are the co-leaders in interceptions from a year ago, CBs Joe Burnett (right) and Johnell Neal. The experienced, talented secondary features four senior starters who have already combined to start an astounding 134 games at UCF. If the Knights can find a way to generate enough pass rush, the secondary will likely put up some great numbers.

Is Mark Snyder in trouble? Longtime head coach Bob Pruett retired in 2004, just as Marshall was up against some NCAA sanctions and a move to a tougher conference (leaving the MAC for Conference USA). A program used to bowl appearances, conference titles, and NFL-caliber talent (Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich, Randy Moss, etc.) wasn't going to take well to rebuilding, but that was in the cards. Snyder is just 12-23 in three seasons, including 3-9 a year ago. However, things are looking up. Marshall returns 17 starters, 33 players on the roster who have started a game, and 41 total letterwinners back. The Herd need to replace a starting QB in Bernard Moore, but the coaches like redshirt freshman Mark Cann, who currently sits atop the depth chart. Improvement will be expected if Marshall is to win games this season, and a big part of that will be a defense that was destroyed last year. The Herd allowed 34 points per game, couldn't stop anyone running or passing the ball. Snyder's job security is in question, and results are needed this year, in all likelihood.

Where did all the runners go? A look at Conference USA shows a startling number of star RBs gone from last year. Marcus Thomas (UTEP), Anthony Aldridge (Houston), Matt Forte (Tulane), Chris Johnson (ECU), Smith (UCF), and Joseph Doss (Memphis) are all gone, and they take 9,686 yards and 104 rushing TDs (118 total) with them. And that's just the 2007 total. Needless to say, there are a ton of teams in Conference USA with top runners to replace, with UCF and Tulane the most hurt, as Smith and Forte each cleared 2,000 yards a year ago. Perhaps this is a nod to Southern Miss (Damion Fletcher) and Tulsa (Tarrion Adams), both of whom return 1,000-yard rushers from last season. Or maybe it's a sign that Conference USA will lean more toward air attacks this season than ever before.

Tulsa reloads. For the first time since 2004, Paul Smith will not be under center (or in the shotgun) for the Golden Hurricane. Tulsa has plenty of talent surrounding the new starter, who will be senior David Johnson. WRs Trae Johnson(right) and Charles Clay combined for 139 catches last year, and while Brennan Marion only caught 39 passes, he averaged a record 31.9 (!) yards per catch. Adams returns in the backfield, and he's a solid receiver. Johnson should be well-protected by a solid offensive line. The schedule is favorable, with only a home date against New Mexico posing any major issues among Tulsa's first five games. With that in mind, Johnson should be well-established before an October 11 game at SMU.

BEST OF THE REST
East Carolina should threaten for the top spot in the East, thanks to a strong defense and improved passing attack. However, replacing a key player like Johnson may be too much to ask for this offense. Believe it or not, Tommy West of Memphis is the longest-tenured head coach in the league. He's been there since 2001. If they can figure out the defensive issues that plagued them throughout the season, Memphis should also be a factor in the East. Southern Miss made the most controversial coaching change, letting Jeff Bower go after 17 seasons. Former Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Larry Fedora gets the job, and he'll bring his no-huddle attack with him. Fletcher should benefit greatly in this offense. Neil Calloway fielded a thin football team last year, but the second-year UAB coach did it out of necessity. He flushed the bad apples out of the program, and now has quite the rebuilding project. The numbers indicate that this will be another rough year in Birmingham, but the Blazers will continue to improve gradually. New Houston coach Kevin Sumlin is highly-regarded and probably not long for this job. While he's there, expect the Cougars to continue with their high-flying offense. With Sumlin's background as a recruiter at schools like Oklahoma and Texas A&M, UH's profile on the national scene is likely to rise considerably. Rice was running the wishbone as recently as 2005. Now, the Owls have a passing attack that is top-notch, thanks to QB Chase Clement and WR Jarett Dillard. Expect Rice to return to bowl contention this year after a 3-9 season in David Bailiff's debut. If sophomore QB Trevor Vittatoe can build off a 31-touchdown freshman season, UTEP should improve off their 4-8 record from 2007. Much will also be decided by whether they can find a RB to replace Thomas, who was a huge part of the offense last year. No team in the league has to replace a player as important as Forte. Bob Toledo returns a ton of players from last year's team, but for Tulane to get any better in a tough division, all the skill-position players have to perform better in Forte's absence. That's probably too much to ask.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Tarrion Adams, RB, Tulsa
Defensive Player of the Year: Joe Burnett, CB, UCF
Coach of the Year: June Jones, SMU
Coach on the Hot Seat: Mark Snyder, Marshall
Best Non-Conference Game: South Florida at Central Florida, September 6
Worst Non-Conference Game: Central Arkansas at Tulsa, September 27

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '07: CONFERENCE USA

CONFERENCE USA EAST

1. Southern Mississippi
2. Central Florida
3. Memphis
4. Marshall
5. East Carolina
6. UAB

-->TOP FIVE STORYLINES IN CONFERENCE USA EAST

5. How will East Carolina replace their top passer and receiver? James Pinkney threw for over 2,700 yards a year ago, and Aundrae Allison caught 64 of his 232 completions, along with four of Pinkney's 12 touchdowns. Both have moved on, leaving (likely) sophomore Rob Kass as the starting QB this season. Kass hit less than 50 percent of his throws in limited duty last year. Senior Phillip Henry is the top returning receiver, and fellow senior Steven Rogers is a big-play threat for the ECU offense. The running game, dormant for most of last year, needs to be much better this year with Pinkney and Allison gone.

4. Can Memphis recover from a disastrous season? The loss of DeAngelo Williams to the NFL wasn't supposed to hurt this much. Tommy West changed defensive coordinators in the middle of the season last year, and he changed offensive coordinators in the offseason. The Tigers return from a 2-10 season with their starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receivers all back. The offensive line returns both starting tackles, and the defensive front seven is almost intact. The schedule, featuring seven home games, seems to slightly favor a turnaround, and Memphis is a better football team on paper. However, it's hard to assume that a 2-10 team will do much more than sneak into bowl eligibility.

3. Is Marshall talented enough to overcome a potentially murderous schedule? The Herd lost their best offensive player in running back Ahmad Bradshaw, but they return 14 total starters, including almost the entire defensive back seven. The first obstacle I see outside of replacing Bradshaw is the schedule, which opens with a road game at Miami, followed by a home date with West Virginia. Marshall also travels to Cincinnati in non-conference play, and the C-USA West opponents they drew were Tulsa, Rice, and Houston, who were all bowl teams last year. The 5-7 record they posted in 2006 could be an achievement in 2007. Marshall is a classic example of a team that should be better on the field than they were last year, but the record may not reflect that.

2. How much will Central Florida be improved? The Knights open a new on-campus stadium with what could be the most talented team George O'Leary has fielded. Not much went right a year ago as UCF went 4-8, but 17 starters return, including nine defensive players. The secondary looks extremely dangerous, with a combination of good size and speed. O'Leary has a new quarterback (sort of) in senior Kyle Israel. He started the last two games last year and completed 65 percent of his throws. Top rusher Kevin Smith is also back for the Knights. In a bit of a weak division, it's not unreasonable to suggest that the Knights are the best available contender to USM's perch on top.

1. What stops Southern Mississippi from running away with this division? The Golden Eagles are loaded on defense, with their top five tacklers and eight total starters back. Even where starters were lost, at cornerback, the Eagles have impressive size and strength returning. The offensive backfield is intact, with star runner Damion Fletcher back to try to improve on his 1,388 yard season in 2006. Signal-caller Jeremy Young started shaky, but was generally better in the second half of the season. Even when he struggled with his accuracy, Young still took pretty good care of the football. Road trips to Tennessee and Boise State should go a long way toward preparing USM for another Conference USA title run.

CONFERENCE USA WEST
1. Houston
2. SMU
3. Tulsa
4. Rice
5. UTEP
6. Tulane

-->TOP FIVE STORYLINES IN CONFERENCE USA WEST
5. Was 2006 a fluke for UTEP? The answer is unclear. On one hand, only Jordan Palmer is gone from a highly-skilled offense, and while Palmer was good last year, there looked at times to be something missing on offense. Where UTEP will be hurt this year is on defense, where seven starters are gone, and the unit was a great disappointment last year. The front seven has to do a better job of generating pressure on opposing offenses, and the secondary will improve as a result. The rest of the division, sans Tulane, looks improved, so it will be tough for the Miners to make much headway, but they should again be able to knock on the door of bowl eligibility.

4. Can SMU make the leap to being a bowl team? Absolutely. 14 starters are back from a team that narrowly missed out on the postseason with a 6-6 record last year, and coach Phil Bennett appears to have the pieces in place to make a run at eight or nine wins. The offense scored over 27 points per game, which is the highest since the famed Death Penalty in the 1980s. Sophomore QB Justin Willis is back, joined in the backfield by junior DeMyron Martin, who was injured last year and only made six starts. If Bennett can find replacements for three defensive line starters who have moved on, SMU has the makings of a surprise contender in the West.

3. Why exactly did Toledo fire Chris Scelfo? I mean, all he did was lead them through the Katrina tragedy (for those who don't know, Tulane had to play all 11 games in 2005 in different venues because of the damage done to the Louisiana Superdome) with class and dignity. Then last year, Scelfo got saddled with a very tough schedule that featured just five home games. They went 3-2 at the refurbished Superdome, but only 1-6 away from home. While the Green Wave were not competitive in three late-season losses, there were signs of impending improvement, especially on defense. Not only did Scelfo do a good job here, but the best Tulane could do for a replacement was retread Bob Toledo. Improvement won't be immediate, but Tulane will show some positive signs this year, and it won't necessarily be anything Toledo does right.

2. How smooth will the coaching transition be for Tulsa and Rice? Todd Graham awkwardly left Rice to head to Tulsa after Steve Kragthorpe left there for Louisville. It's hard to argue with Kragthorpe's decision, but Graham has made some enemies at Rice. The jilted Owls grabbed Texas State coach David Bailiff, who will keep them running a wide-open offense and hope to improve a defense that cut a touchdown off their points per game average last year (40 in 2005 down to 33), but that still has a ton of work to do. Meanwhile, Tulsa hopes to keep their success going under Graham. Kragthorpe won 29 games in four years there. The Golden Hurricane only have four starters back on offense, but two of them are star QB Paul Smith and leading rusher Courtney Tennial.

1. Is Houston still the top dog in the West? The Cougars lose four-year starting quarterback Kevin Kolb and top receiver Vincent Marshall, but there still is talent. The defense, bringing back seven starters, should get better, especially up front, where UH still has to do a better job. Senior running back Anthony Aldridge takes over the top job this year after averaging an eye-popping 10.1 per carry last year, and senior receivers Donnie Avery and Jeron Harvey are back to help out new starting quarterback Blake Joseph. With a strong offensive line and a super running back, Joseph should have little trouble transitioning to his new gig.

CISKIE BLOG PRESEASON CONFERENCE USA AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Damion Fletcher, RB, Southern Mississippi
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Albert McClellan, DE, Marshall
Preseason Coach of the Year: Phil Bennett, SMU
Coach on the Hot Seat: Tommy West, Memphis
Bowl Bound: Southern Mississippi, Houston
Bowl Bubble: SMU, Central Florida, Tulsa, Memphis
Best Non-Conference Game: Oklahoma at Tulsa, September 21
Worst Non-Conference Game: Texas Southern at UTEP, September 22