2011 College Football Preview: Big 12

As usual, my 2011 College Football Preview includes information compiled from a variety of sources, most notably the work of Phil Steele. Check out his preview publications and material on his website. I also scour local newspapers and school websites for updated information, but it should be noted that all information contained in team and conference previews is only current up to the date of that post's publication.

BIG 12 CONFERENCE
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas A&M
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma State
5. Missouri
6. Baylor
7. Texas Tech
8. Kansas State
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas

Top Storylines in the Big 12

Texas is king; will they play like it? With Colorado and Nebraska gone, the Big 12 has ten teams. Texas is the league's crown jewel, owners of their own (somewhat controversial) television network. But the Longhorns are coming off a 5-7 season, and there are some issues to resolve if they are to return to the top of the mountain. For one, quarterback Garrett Gilbert has to cut down on the turnovers. Secondly, the Longhorns could stand to find a feature back. Unless Gilbert -- assuming he beats out the likes of Case McCoy for the starting job -- is set to become a Vince Young/Colt McCoy type who can run this offense and be the alpha dog, they need someone in the backfield to step up. That could be highly-touted freshman Malcolm Brown, who has impressed the Texas veteran players so far. The Longhorns have talent all over the field, but the offense will sputter if Gilbert struggles, and Gilbert will likely struggle if Texas doesn't find a running back to carry the load the way Ricky Williams and Cedric Benson did in years gone by.

Can Justin Blackmon do it again? In an otherwise non-descript season for Oklahoma State, wide receiver Justin Blackmon was special last year. He caught an incredible 111 passes and scored 20 touchdowns, numbers that will be difficult to build on, or even match, though it helps that triggerman Brandon Weeden returns, and running buddy Josh Cooper, an outstanding possession receiver, both return for OSU. Oklahoma State also brings back its entire offensive line intact, and there are some strong pieces on defense like cornerback Brodrick Brown and linebacker Shaun Lewis. I'm not sure they can win 11 games again, but the Cowboys are definitely a threat in a league that has one top dog (Oklahoma) and a bunch of teams with question marks.

Oklahoma is a heavy favorite. There is no getting around this, really. Junior quarterback Landry Jones threw for over 4,700 yards last year, and he's on track to become OU's all-time leading passer by the team's second game this season. The Sooners do have to replace dual-threat back DeMarco Murray, but there is an impressive stable of backs ready to take a shot. There are indications OU will use a group of guys to fill the position, instead of a single feature back. That opens the door for true freshman Brandon Williams to make a huge impact. Junior Jermie Calhoun could also be a guy to watch, along with sophomore Roy Finch. Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills return to catch Jones' passes, and eight starters are back on defense to improve a unit that allowed 362 yards and 22 points per game last year. those aren't bad numbers at all, but it's expected that OU will be just as dangerous defensively as they look to be offensively. Don't overlook the loss of tackle Trent Williams, even though he primarily played on the right side.

We'll keep seeing how good Robert Griffin III is. Baylor hasn't exactly been known for producing legendary quarterbacks over the years. In fact, until 2010, something called J.J. Joe was the school's all-time leading passer. That is no more, thanks to now-junior Robert Griffin III. Griffin shook off the torn ACL that ruined his 2009 season by making The Leap last year. He hit two-thirds of his passes for over 3,500 yards with 22 touchdowns. He chipped in eight rushing touchdowns for an even 30 on the season. He showed his potential brilliance in ten starts as a true freshman in 2008 before the injury washed away 2009. Last year, Baylor reached a bowl game for the first time since 1994, losing to Illinois in the Texas Bowl. Griffin led the Bears to a win at Texas, their first in Austin since 1991, when that Joe guy was the quarterback. Griffin has a chance to take Baylor to consecutive bowls for the first time in 20 years, and he is only going to become a bigger name in Waco with every game he wins. The Bears have 14 starters back, could field an elite offense in the Big 12, and are a far cry from the outfit that was routinely getting blown out in conference play even a few years ago.

The Rest of the Story

Mike Sherman has his quarterback at Texas A&M, and it's Ryan Tannehill. The senior took over for the last six games last season and made a huge difference for a then-struggling team. With receivers Jeff Fuller and ryan Swope both back, this offense could be scary good. ... The loss of Blaine Gabbert will be felt at Missouri, though there's no doubt that sophomore James Franklin is a talented quarterback. What will also be interesting is how the Tigers replace impact players Aldon Smith and Andrew Gachkar from the defensive front seven. ... They might not run the same mad offense in Lubbock, but Texas Tech can still score points. I expect they'll be a little wobbly this season as they continue to adjust to Tommy Tuberville's ways. Look for the defense to be vastly improved. ... Transfers like Bryce Brown (Tennessee), Meshak Williams (JUCO), and Justin Tuggle (JUCO) will make an impact at Kansas State, but the Wildcats will feel the loss of star running back Daniel Thomas despite Brown's presence. ... Iowa State continues to get better on defense, but Paul Rhoads will again struggle to get his team's offense up to snuff. Losing dual-threat quarterback Austen Arnaud won't help matters on that side of the ball, but the Cyclones do have seven starters back on defense, including linebacker Jake Knott, who is capable of 150 tackles this season. ... Last year started with a whimper for Kansas, as they lost 6-3 to North Dakota State. They then scored 24 points in their last three games of the year, losing by a combined 69 points. They were outgained by 131 yards per game, including a staggering 219 in conference play. 15 starters return, but this isn't going to get better fast.

Big Games Highlight College Football Weekend

After a bit of a slow go through the first week of the season -- slow especially if you're a fan of Kansas and Mississippi -- the college football schedule is quite impressive in Week 2.

There is likely not going to be an instant classic in the bunch for a number of reasons, but there are big names playing against each other, and that should count for something.

The best chance -- I think -- for a great game in the bunch will be in Columbus, where Miami visits Ohio State. The U has come a long way in the last couple years, and they appear ready to reclaim their spot as a marquee "franchise" in college football. The Hurricanes had a layup in Week 1, as did Ohio State, so we can't look too hard at those games.

Instead, look at the talent. Miami lines up with the athletic Jacory Harris at quarterback. He's not the biggest run threat, but he can move around, and he has a live arm. I like their receivers, led by Leonard Hankerson and Travis Benjamin, and Graig Cooper should have a big say in this game's outcome with his running ability.

Of course, Miami has their hands full on defense. Terrelle Pryor is Ohio State's starting quarterback, and he's not just a thrower. He might be the best running quarterback in the nation, even if you count option quarterbacks like Navy's Ricky Dobbs. Pryor led the Buckeyes in rushing last year, beating out back Brandon Saine. He is gaining confidence as a passer, even if there are still games where he doesn't look like he's all there yet.

Linebackers Colin McCarthy and Sean Spence of Miami will have their hands full with tOSU's strong backfield tandem.

This should be a fun game. These are teams that can push the pace, even if they primarily run the ball. They will spread the field and attack, and both teams sport confident, hard-hitting defenses.

I have said all along that I really like what I saw from Pryor in the Rose Bowl last year. It was the kind of game that screamed of being a "leap" game for him, the kind of game that makes him the star player we have all been waiting for him to become.

The problem with that thought is that we've seen games like this from him before, so he still has to prove he can be a consistently productive quarterback for Ohio State to beat a good team like Miami, even when the game is at home.

I'll take the home team, largely because I think it's time for Pryor to turn the corner, and Ohio State has a bit more talent and balance overall.

The pick: Ohio State

The other game I'm really looking forward to is Florida State at Oklahoma. The Seminoles have a high-flying passing game, and the Sooners have a problem. With all due respect to Utah State, the Sooners' secondary was abused last week by ... Utah State. I really like USU's quarterback and receivers, but they're just not good enough to be running up and down the field on Oklahoma without there being an apparent problem with Oklahoma.

The Sooners can move the ball. DeMarco Murray is great, and Landry Jones will come into his own this season. Meanwhile, Christian Ponder might be another overrated Florida State quarterback, but he's talented enough -- with good receivers -- for FSU to go into Norman and give the Sooners a scare. They might just be good enough to do more than that, and I'll call for the upset.

Simply put, I think Florida State has more balance and more experience than the Sooners, and they will play better defense when it matters most.

The pick: Florida State

Other games (home team in CAPS):

Michigan State over FLORIDA ATLANTIC
(Note: This game is in freaking Detroit. And Florida Atlantic is the home team. What a joke. It's simply a grab for money and attendance figures by FAU, and their supporters should be completely pissed about it.)
PURDUE over Western Illinois
NORTHWESTERN over Illinois State
Georgia over SOUTH CAROLINA
MINNESOTA over South Dakota
WISCONSIN over San Jose State
IOWA over Iowa State
Michigan over NOTRE DAME
AIR FORCE over Brigham Young
Oregon over TENNESSEE
ALABAMA over Penn State
ILLINOIS over Southern Illinois
Stanford over UCLA

Last week: 16-2
Season: 16-2

College Football 2010: Big 12

Yes, we're doing a College Football Preview again. Yes, you know I love Phil Steele's work. Order from his plethora of preview options here. I'm also armed with The Sporting News College Football 2010, and I picked up the Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook this year, too. I've also done research through local newspapers and school websites to try to get the most up-to-date information on the teams.

Big 12 Conference
North Division
1. Nebraska
2. Missouri
3. Colorado
4. Kansas
5. Iowa State
6. Kansas State

South Division
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas A&M
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas Tech
6. Baylor

Stories to Watch in the Big 12

Big dogs rebuild. It's not like this hasn't happened before. Texas had Vince Young, and they had to pick up with Colt McCoy. I'd say that turned out pretty well. Oklahoma has produced guys like Adrian Peterson and Mark Bradley before, and they have moved on, too. But losing McCoy and Sam Bradford won't make things easier for either team. There is a silver lining for Oklahoma, because Bradford missed much of last season. Landry Jones had to take over in a pinch, and the kid played well. Jones was the top freshman quarterback in the country, leading the youngsters in passing yards and touchdowns. He did throw 14 picks in 13 games, and he hit less than 60 percent of his passes -- unacceptable in this offense. But there's no reason to think he won't pick up where he left off and continue progressing. McCoy was a winner, an insanely accurate passer, and a good athlete for Texas. While Garrett Gilbert may not have looked terribly good in the BCS National Championship, taking over for an injured McCoy couldn't have been easy. Gilbert looked more confident in the spring, and there's no question he is the starter entering the fall. There are other losses on each team -- most notably Oklahoma tackle Trent Williams and Texas receiver Jordan Shipley -- but the quarterbacks are the key. If Gilbert can play with more confidence while Jones continues to improve, neither team will miss a beat, and they will keep owning the Big 12 South.

Disciplinary coaching changes. Two Big 12 coaches were shown the door for disciplinary reasons last year. Mark Mangino left Kansas after allegations surfaced that he was abusive to his players, while Mike Leach was fired at Texas Tech after controversial accusations he mistreated a player who was recovering from a concussion. No matter how you feel about the individual cases, there's no doubt that both schools have made significant moves. Turner Gill -- the former Nebraska star turned Buffalo coach -- takes over at Kansas. He'll find some talent left by Mangino, who stepped up the school's recruiting during his time there. The first things Gill wanted to do involved improving the overall image of the program. Now it's time to step up their play on the field. Losing quarterback Todd Reesing and receivers Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe will hurt, but at least Gill doesn't have to worry about teaching old dogs new tricks. As for Texas Tech, they went with former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, and if they wanted a more cerebral but very good and experienced coach, they got one. Tuberville took a year off after 5-7 season at Auburn led to his departure, and he might be a tad uncomfortable trying to let Tech keep their wide-open offense that Leach had nearly perfected. In the end, though, it's a good change for a school looking for a less bombastic personality in the football coach's office.

Can Dan Hawkins save his job? There is little doubt the Buffaloes are not where they want to be or where they had become accustomed to being. Hawkins has a .326 winning percentage in his four years at CU, and while that might be a sign of progress at some places, it doesn't fly at Colorado. Hawkins hurt his own cause by predicting a ten-win season in 2009 and posting a 3-9 record. A big problem has been the lack of a star quarterback. Hawkins' son, Cody, never found a footing under center, and he lost the job to Tyler Hansen last year. Now the junior Hansen is the established starter, though Hawkins was still pushing in spring practice. The Buffaloes also need more out of running back Rodney Stewart, a shifty back who can make people miss, but who only averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year. There's a lot of pressure on this team, and it will be interesting to see how they respond. A bowl trip will likely save Hawkins' job, but it will be tough with a schedule that includes non-conference dates against California, Hawaii, and Georgia (latter two at home), along with the rivalry game in Denver against Colorado State.

Missouri grows up. Last year, the Tigers had 34 freshmen and sophomores on their two-deep (depth chart). The lack of experience was telling, as Missouri showed flashes of brilliance mixed with gaps of judgment that don't happen with seniors and juniors. Off an eight-win season, Missouri has high hopes if they can take care of a couple problems. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert returns, but they lost top receiver Danario Alexander. If Gabbert can find quality targets among a group that includes Wes Kemp, Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington. The Tigers also have to find a way to stop opposing passing offenses. Seniors Carl Gettis and Kevin Rutland get the first crack at starting cornerback jobs, but there is work to be done. Missouri was last in the Big 12 in completion percentage allowed, and they were near the bottom of Division I-A in intercetions. Find a receiver. Stop the other teams' receivers. It sounds so simple. Do that, and Missouri's increased experience will be a huge factor in the Tigers having a great season and perhaps another run at the Big 12 title.

Best of the rest
There is no fear at Nebraska, even though dominating defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has departed. Part of that is the athleticism and balance that exists all along the Blackshirts defense. Oh, and the presence of huge lineman Jared Crick helps. The junior might not dominate like Suh did, but he is on track to be a very, very high draft pick either next spring or in 2012, and he will be a favorite for Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. ... Year Two at Iowa State for Paul Rhoads will produce a better football team, even if they don't win more games. Rhoads was probably lucky to get seven wins out of the Cyclones last year, and it's unlikely that Rhoads will squeeze another bowl season out of this team so quickly. ... Bill Snyder has picked up the pace at Kansas State, and I might be silly to pick them this low. He somehow had them in bowl contention for much of last season, and they can probably find a postseason slot if they get their quarterback situation resolved. It's not known if Snyder can mentor an assistant to quietly and seamlessly take his place when he decides to retire for real. That isn't a transition that worked well last time. ... He was the subject of laughter when he was in Green Bay as head coach and GM of the Packers, but Mike Sherman may have found a home at Texas A&M. Of course, it helps to have a quarterback like Jerrod Johnson and receivers like Jeff Fuller and Terrence McCoy. It'll be a big key for A&M to have a good league start, because the end of the schedule is a killer, and the first part should be the easiest for them. ... Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy gave up play-calling duties, hiring former Houston coordinator Dana Holgorsen to take over the offense. While the cupboard isn't bare, the Cowboys do lose quarterback Zac Robinson, receiver Dez Bryant, and mammoth tackle Russell Okung. Running back Kendall Hunter takes over as the offensive star, while 26-year-old junior Brandon Weeden appears to be favored to be the new quarterback. ... Athletic quarterback Robert Griffin is back from a torn ACL to run Baylor's offense again. The Bears had bowl-game optimism last year, but won just four games and went 1-7 in the Big 12. Coach Art Briles is in no trouble yet, but if Griffin and receiver Kendall Wright can get Baylor over the hump, it would be a huge thing for the program, which hasn't sniffed the postseason since 1995.

Preseason Big 12 Superlatives
Best QB: Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Best RB: Roy Helu, Jr., Nebraska
Best WR: Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma
Best offense: Oklahoma
Best defense: Nebraska
Best coach: Mack Brown, Texas
Coach in the most trouble: Dan Hawkins, Colorado
Best non-conference game: Florida State at Oklahoma, Sept. 11
Worst non-conference game: North Dakota State at Kansas, Sept. 4

Reports of Big 12's Demise Were Apparently Exaggerated

I wrote Friday about the impending demise of the once-great Big 12 Conference.

Spoke too soon.

Instead, the Big 12 is alive and very well Monday night, thanks to a decision by Texas to stay put, pushing aside the advances of the Pac-10 conference.

It wasn't long after that we found out lapdogs Texas A&M and Oklahoma will also stay in the Big 12.

(OU fans are probably cursing me. With all due respect to Texas, I never thought I'd see the day that A&M and Oklahoma just bowed their heads and went the way of the Longhorns. Rivalries be damned, it just looks stupid to me.)

In the end, Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe has found a way to at least keep a ten-team league together. That's big, because most people who have fake Twitter accounts created in their name aren't having it done for the good of the world.

(The latest, by the way, from the "Fake Dan Beebe" account? "OK, I'm actually a little worried now. UT, A&M and OU all have announced they are staying. KSU, BU and ISU are oddly silent."

Good times.)

This is good for a number of reasons. The Big Ten can stay at 12 teams, with the addition late last week of Nebraska. They fit the Big Ten, and they'll benefit from losing 14-13 to Iowa and Wisconsin all the time, as opposed to losing at home to Iowa State or having Kansas beat them by like six touchdowns.

(How stupid is Nebraska going to feel after that first 7-6 overall, 3-5 Big Ten season? And you know it's coming. Nebraska stopped being this elite, unbeatable, legendary football power like a decade ago. It's just that no one bothered to tell Nebraska. The Big 12 North can cast quite a spell. Hell, look how competent Kansas looked for a few years.)

How close did we come to the end of the Big 12? Dr. Saturday sets the timeline.

Thus concludes the dramatic, week-long Big 12 Missile Crisis, just hours before the apparent dismemberment of the league: By all accounts, the Texas Board of Regents was fully prepared to vote the Longhorns into the Pac-10 on Tuesday, followed by Texas Tech and then Oklahoma and Oklahoma State on Wednesday. Don't let the stunning reversal over the last 24 hours paint that narrative as mere smoke: Larry Scott was in Lubbock, Oklahoma City, College Station and Austin over the weekend with invitations in hand. Texas A&M's commitment was in flux, but as for the Longhorns, Sooners, Cowboys and Red Raiders, the wagon train West was packed and ready to roll.

That's close. And it didn't happen.

Congrats to Beebe, because he figured out a way to make it work.

The math nerds in college sports are probably having a field day with this. The Big 12 has ten teams. The Big Ten has 12. The Pac-10 has 11. The Atlantic 10 has 14 teams in many sports and 15 actual members.

Of course, conference names are nothing but a form of branding. The Big Eight changing to the Big 12 was the last major league to go through a name change.

(Stop it, Conference USA fans. You're not that big, yet.)

We might not be done with change.

The Big Ten should stay put. So should the Big East, ACC, SEC, and WAC. But the Mountain West may lose Utah (to the Pac-10) after gaining Boise State. The ripple effect of that could send TCU packing back to Conference USA, where they have a better TV deal and the Horned Frogs could reunite with Houston, SMU, and UTEP.

Would there be more movement among the BCS leagues? It's possible, but not likely.

As for Texas, don't salute their nod to tradition or their smarts for not wanting to schedule regular trips to Corvallis, Pullman, Eugene, and Berkeley. They are getting a lot of money from the Big 12, thanks to their stupid unequal revenue arrangement that acts as if their league would exist in its current form without the likes of Missouri, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State.

(Does Northwestern pull in less coin than Ohio State? Nope. Nor should they. Leagues are a partnership, and giving the big dog special treatment only makes it more difficult for others to emerge as a contender.)

Texas is doing this for money. They'll get more money from the Big 12, and they'll have the right to start their own television network, with a chance to make even more money. Had they joined the Pac-10, they would have been forced to turn their video inventory over to the league for the Pac-10/16/whatever Network, which was to launch in 2012 and probably still will.

Beebe pulled this together, but he had to get on his knees for the Longhorns to make it happen. Give him credit for that, because it had to be a pride-killing move.

Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and the rest of them are just pawns.

Texas is the king, and don't you ever forget it.

College Football 2009: Big 12

This year's College Football Preview uses information gathered from many sources. As usual, my full endorsement goes to Phil Steele and his College Football Preview, which is the most comprehensive publication of its kind available. I also used The Sporting News College Football Preview, along with school websites and local newspapers, in my research for these preview posts. Please contact me ASAP if you have updated information that can be used to make this work more accurate.

NORTH DIVISION
1. Kansas
2. Nebraska
3. Colorado
4. Kansas State
5. Missouri
6. Iowa State

SOUTH DIVISION
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Baylor
6. Texas A&M

Fab Four: Top Storylines in Big 12

Bradford vs. McCoy/Oklahoma vs. Texas may have company. There are many schools of thought on this year's Big 12 race. In the reading I've done, the most popular one is that the Texas/Oklahoma game in Dallas will decide the Big 12 South title.

While it makes perfect sense, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy aren't the only big-time players in this division race. Don't sleep on Zac Robinson.

Once best known as the guy Mike "I'm a Man! I'm 40!" Gundy elevated to starting quarterback ahead of Bobby Reid, Robinson is poised to do his most damage yet as a senior. Top receiver Dez Bryant returns, as does dynamic leading rusher Kendall Hunter. The defense will (not "might") be much improved, and Oklahoma State gets Texas, Texas Tech, and Colorado at home in conference play.

As for Oklahoma, they should have a strong defense, but can the offensive line come anywhere near last year's performance. A huge part of Bradford's Heisman credentials came from the fact he was only sacked 11 times in 13 games before the national championship. Bradford gets left tackle Trent Williams back, but every other starter will be new.

Texas has McCoy -- almost a shoo-in for a trip to New York in December -- and he has his entire offense back after averaging over 42 points per game last year. The Longhorns' defense looks to be potentially phenomenal, too.

Are the Blackshirts back? Brothers Bo (head coach) and Carl (defensive coordinator) Pelini have only been on the job in Lincoln for one year, but results are already starting to show. The Cornhuskers shaved more than a touchdown per game and almost 125 yards per game off their hideous 2007 numbers. Not only that, but the rush yards per game were cut exactly in half between 2007 and 2008.

Nebraska is now ready for a defensive breakout, as the Cornhuskers return the entire secondary and seven total starters from last year. Chief among these returnees are senior safeties Larry Asante and Matt O'Hanlon, along with senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The Pelinis understand that there is only so much they can do at once, but getting this defense to play again at a high level is a huge part of restoring the pride in Nebraska football. What happens on offense isn't at all insignificant, but it does take a back seat to the work being done by the defense.

Bill Snyder's return. When Kansas State jettisoned Ron Prince, no one knew that they had this in mind. Snyder turns 70 during the season, he says he won't stay long, but he is indeed back. His previous K-State stint saw him win 136 games and perform well enough to have the football stadium named after his family. He told ESPN earlier this month that he'll stick around "as long as it takes" to get the program on solid footing. Of course, he did also said he wouldn't stay long, which implies that he is very confident in his own skills, and he must think Prince was totally incompetent.

Snyder's defense is fast and experienced, though not blessed with awe-inspiring size. There's no way K-State allows 35 points per game again. The problem could come with an offense that was good last year, but lost its triggerman when Josh Freeman went to the NFL. If the Wildcats can find a way to protect new starter Daniel Thomas, they should have a good chance to return to the postseason.

Then we can see next year how Snyder does coaching Prince's recruits.

The rise of Baylor has begun. A little-known freshman named Robert Griffin took over as Baylor's starter not long after the season opened with a disastrous 41-13 home loss to Wake Forest. Yes, the Bears again slumped to a losing season, finishing 4-8, but Griffin was a great find and a perfect fit for Art Briles' spread offense.

Griffin is a great athlete, but showed himself to also be a tough kid and a mature leader for Baylor. He totaled nearly 3,000 yards (combined passing and rushing), scored 28 touchdowns (15 passing, 13 rushing) and tossed just three picks in 267 throws. All of a sudden, Baylor football was becoming exciting, and much more competitive.

The transition continues in 2009, as Griffin has all his key weapons back, an offensive line that's almost completely intact, and should benefit greatly from a full offseason in Briles' scheme. Not only that, but the Bears' defense, which allowed less than 30 points per game for the first time in three years, gets eight starters back, including its top four tacklers. Also returning are team leaders in passes defensed, interceptions, and tackles for loss. While all three non-conference home games should be wins, the Bears will again struggle in Big 12 play, as they're not ready to compete with the likes of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas.

Best of the rest

Kansas should roll on in 2009, thanks to a loaded offense and what should be a much-improved defense. While everyone fawns over guys like Bradford, McCoy, and even Robinson (rightfully so), Todd Reesing is often forgotten as a top college quarterback. ... Quarterback Cody Hawkins took a big step forward for Colorado last year, but the offense as a whole did not. Hawkins' decision-making has to improve so he can avoid the kinds of hits he took in 2008, while giving his playmakers a better chance to do things in the open field. ... Missouri lost a ton from last year's team, including a Heisman candidate at quarterback, the top three receivers, and five of the top eight tacklers. Good luck with that. ... Another new coach at Iowa State. If Paul Rhoads decides to bolt after two seasons, maybe he'll be kind enough to win more than five games before heading out the door. While a losing season is likely, Chizik did leave a stocked cupboard for Rhoads. If he can get his team to play with some confidence defensively, they could build a postseason contender. ... Texas Tech has to replace another quarterback and another receiver. Something tells me it won't be as easy as it sounds or than it has been in the past. Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree weren't just system guys. Well, at least Crabtree wasnt. ... Mike Sherman's tenure at Texas A&M didn't start well, thanks to a home loss to Arkansas State. It doesn't look good this season, either. The Aggies still have some miscast parts on offense, though junior quarterback Jerrod Johnson could be a good one. If they can play a little defense, they may be able to stage a battle for fourth place in the division. That's a big "if", however.

Big 12 Preseason Honors and Notables
Offensive Player of the Year: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Defensive Player of the Year: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Coach of the Year: Dan Hawkins, Colorado
Coach on the Hot Seat: Mike Sherman, Texas A&M
Best non-conference game: BYU vs. Oklahoma (at Arlington), September 5
Worst non-conference game: Northern Colorado at Kansas, September 5

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: BIG 12

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

NORTH DIVISION
1. Missouri
2. Kansas
3. Nebraska
4. Colorado
5. Kansas State
6. Iowa State

SOUTH DIVISION
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas A&M
6. Baylor

TOP FIVE STORYLINES IN BIG 12
More struggles at Baylor. Every school in the Big 12 has been to at least three bowl games since the calendar flipped to the year 2000. Well, every school except one has. Baylor has not seen the college football postseason since 1994. They've not won a bowl game since 1992. Guy Morriss was allowed five years to try to turn things around after being hired away from Kentucky, where he nursed the program through the worst of the Hal Mumme fallout. At Baylor, Morriss never won more than five games in a season, and he won just 18 games total. Even at a place that has become known as the Big 12's weakest sister, this isn't going to be accepted forever. Now, accomplished coach Art Briles takes over. He brings his funky spread-style offense from Houston, where he posted a so-so 34-28 record, but did guide the Cougars to four bowl bids in five years. Surely, Briles will be allowed more than a couple years at BU, and if he gets the resources he needs, the Bears should begin to improve as quickly as this year.

Is Kansas a flash in the pan? Last year's version of the Jayhawks did everything you could ask them to do, outside of beating Missouri. They rung up some serious point totals, including that 76-point outburst against Nebraska. Their defense was great throughout most of the year, holding opponents under 100 rush yards per game and keeping four teams from reaching double figures in points. They shocked many (evidently, we all thought KU would have "Just happy to be there" syndrome) by beating Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. So, can Mark Mangino engineer another magical season? They probably won't be 12-1 again, but they should be very good. Todd Reesing is back to run the offense at peak efficiency. RB Brandon McAnderson has to be replaced, but KU returns three starting linemen and two top receivers. The defense should be among the Big 12's best again. Nine starters are back, including the top four tacklers. Mangino's team has no fewer than six seniors starting on defense, and if Kendrick Harper can step up his game in departed CB Aqib Talib's spot, the Jayhawks won't miss a beat. 12-1 looks out of reach, but the Jayhawks only play four true road games all season long, and they bear watching once again.

Chase-ing the H*i*m*n. Chase Daniel (right) returns to lead North Division champion Missouri's attack. He loses top receiver Martin Rucker and leading rusher Tony Temple, but freshman All-American Jeremy Maclin is back to catch passes and return kicks, and safety blanket Chase Coffman returns. Daniel threw for over 4,300 yards and 33 scores last year. He topped 300 yards in nine of 14 games. The Tigers might not win another division title, but they're favored, and the senior QB is a big reason why. Daniel is pretty much everyone's pick for the league's Offensive Player of the Year in the preseason. With Maclin, Coffman, and Tommy Saunders all back to catch the ball, and with a loaded offensive line, Daniel will put up some serious numbers again this year.

Oklahoma's defense looks to rebound. The Sooners were flat-out embarrassed in their Fiesta Bowl loss to West Virginia. Before that fateful night in Glendale, the OU run defense hadn't once yielded 200 yards to an opponent. Only Oklahoma State's 195 even came close, and that was in a 49-17 OU win. West Virginia ran for 349 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry in a 48-28 romp. The 349 yards exceeded the total Oklahoma allowed in their first five games (338). It was an awful way to end a superb season. The Sooners lose six starters from that defense, but they get back three starters on the line, while stud SS Nic Harris anchors the secondary. If Bob Stoops can find a replacement for departed feature back Allen Patrick, the offense won't miss a beat after averaging 42 points per game in 2007. Instead, the ultimate fate of this season rests on the defense. Can they rebound and play like a confident unit after the thrashing they got from WVU?

This is Texas Tech's time. For Mike Leach, it probably doesn't get any simpler than this season. He has a senior QB in Graham Harrell who is set to obliterate any remaining school passing records (he's less than 2,000 yards from Kliff Kingsbury's career mark, meaning he may set that before the Big 12 opener October 4). He has three solid dual-threat RBs to choose from, including sophomores Aaron Crawford and Baron Batch. WR Michael Crabtree (right) won the Biletnikoff Award as a freshman last year, catching 134 passes and falling 38 yards short of 2,000 for the season. Oh, and Leach's defense returns eight starters. The schedule shows tough road games against Kansas and Oklahoma, but the other really tough Big 12 games are in Lubbock, including Nebraska and Texas. If they're ever going to climb the mountain, it's going to be this season. The best part? No matter the record, there isn't a more entertaining team in all of college football.

BEST OF THE REST
Nebraska brings back Bo Pelini, this time for a longer head-coaching stint (he coached the team in the Alamo Bowl the year Frank Solich got fired). His first task is to rebuild the image of the Blackshirts defense, which gave up a rather ghastly 37 points and 477 yards per game last year. 80,000 people paid to watch the spring game, so you know they're excited in Lincoln. The coach's son looks to improve on a solid freshman season in Boulder. Cody Hawkins (right), son of Dan, leads the Colorado offense, which improved by leaps and bounds - and by nearly 100 yards per game - over a dismal 2006. Cody threw 17 picks in 13 starts, however, and that can't happen again. The Buffaloes upset Oklahoma a year ago, and with West Virginia, Florida State, Texas, and Oklahoma State all visiting Boulder this season, they may need to pull another upset or two to reach a bowl game for the second straight year. You think Ron Prince senses trouble at Kansas State? He brought in 19 JUCO kids in this year's class, hoping to supplement a roster that returns only 12 starters from a disappointing 2007. The Wildcats fell off badly, losing their last four games by a total of 86 points. The offense has to find a way to replace leading receiver Jordy Nelson and leading rusher James Johnson. Good luck. If anything positive can be taken out of the debut season for Gene Chizik at Iowa State, it's that they played some good football towards the end of the season. The Cyclones beat bowl-bound Colorado and also dealt a crippling blow to Kansas State's postseason hopes. Chizik gets 14 starters back and should field an improved team capable of winning four or five games. Texas lost an uncharacteristic three Big 12 games last year, but recovered to blow out Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl. The defense fell off terribly from when Chizik led the way, and now they have to replace seven starters this year. A favorable early-season schedule should get the Longhorns off to a fast start, but they don't appear to be strong enough to contend in the South. Mike Gundy made headlines for his anti-media rant last year, but the Oklahoma State coach made the right move in starting Zac Robinson ahead of Bobby Reid. The Cowboys are a secondary away from being a sleeper in the South, as Robinson will continue to lead the offense to serious numbers. Former Packers coach Mike Sherman takes over at Texas A&M. While I was no fan of his work in Green Bay, I think he will be fine in the college game. The problem will be trying to sort through the mess Dennis Franchione left him. While Sherman's smarts and play-calling acumen should serve him well with the offense, I'm not sure how the hell they're going to field a defense that doesn't get destroyed.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
Defensive Player of the Year: William Moore, S, Missouri
Coach of the Year: Mike Leach, Texas Tech
Coach on the Hot Seat: Ron Prince, Kansas State
Best Non-Conference Game: Illinois vs Missouri at St. Louis, August 30
Worst Non-Conference Game: SE Missouri at Missouri, September 6

AN IDEA WHOSE TIME HAS COME

Matt Hayes of Sporting News did some interesting analysis on Big Ten football schedules. It got me thinking, so here we are.

Hayes looked at the non-conference schedules of the teams and rated them in order of strength. I have no issue with the rankings he drew up, nor do I have any issue with the content of his post or the idea behind it.

In fact, I applaud it. It really got my mind working on some stuff.

A grand total of two out of 11 teams in the Big Ten have non-conference schedules that don't include any Division I-AA (or Football Championship Subdivision, if you prefer) teams. Michigan State and Michigan are the only ones (kudos, by the way).

Three teams in the league (Wisconsin, Indiana, and Minnesota) don't meet a single foe from a BCS conference (ACC, Big East, Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC). Two teams (Northwestern and Iowa) don't face a single bowl team from a year ago.

In short, these schedules suck. Lots.

While my loyalty to the Big Ten is not without limits, I still didn't believe it would be fair to simply bash the Big Ten over this. The Big Ten is not the only guilty party. In fact, they aren't the worst offender.

Not even close.

Hayes broke down the other league's non-conference slates (check his archives for the info), and I consulted my Athlon's preview magazine for a quick gander.

There are 65 teams in the six BCS conferences. Of the 65, only 13 have a non-conference schedule void of any Division I-AA opponents this year. That's 20 percent.

Of the 42 BCS conference teams that play Division I-AA opponents this year, 11 of them won ten or more games last year.

By conference, the worst offender is clearly the ACC. The All-Cupcakes Conference has just one freaking team (Wake Forest) who didn't schedule a I-AA opponent. I hate to go all TMQ on you, but I hope the football gods reward Jim Grobe with another conference championship. Three bowl teams from a year ago (Clemson, Florida State, and Georgia Tech) saw fit to schedule TWO I-AA opponents this year (Clemson plays The Citadel and South Carolina State, Florida State hosts Western Carolina and Chattanooga, and Georgia Tech hosts Jacksonville State and Gardner-Webb).

You could justify Duke playing James Madison. It's Duke versus the Dukes. Imagine the shirts.

North Carolina and North Carolina State sucked last year, so it's not totally sinful for them to schedule McNeese State and William & Mary, respectively.

But why the hell is Boston College playing Rhode Island and Virginia Tech playing Furman?

All this lunacy has me thinking that it's time for an extreme move by the powers-that-be in college football.

It's time to make a rule that bans teams from BCS bowl consideration if they schedule more than two I-AA opponents over a rolling six-year period.

No one will be for it. The I-AA schools like the six-figure (possibly soon to be seven-figure) guarantees that come with these beatdowns (well, "beatdown" may not apply if you're Appalachian State). The BCS schools enjoy the guaranteed home sellouts and normally easy wins. Those wins help them move toward bowl eligibility, and they help the team gain confidence.

But it's a necessity. Think about it for a moment. If you match up open dates and weeks where I-AA opponents were used to fill the schedule, we're being robbed of some nice matchups. Among them:

Boston College-Rutgers
Kentucky-Kansas
Florida-Wisconsin
Georgia-Ohio State
Florida State-South Florida

That's just a few off a quick gander at schedules. You could draw up probably dozens of other great combinations.

Instead, we get crap.

Now, I know many of you will say "Hey! My team played so-and-so". And you'd be right. Ohio State does play USC. Clemson does play Alabama. Florida has Florida State and Miami on the docket.

Also valid would be the "My team only plays that I-AA team because someone else backed out of a contracted game on short notice".

That's why I went with the rolling two-year period. I don't deny that there are situations where a I-AA team is on a short list of options. It takes two teams to make a non-conference game happen. But we need to change the lazy, unimaginative, gutless mindset that has become epidemic in the game. We deserve better for our ticket money, and the fans who crowd around the TV sets for dozens of Saturday games every weekend deserve to see better matchups.

BLOGPOLL ROUNDTABLE: OVERRATED/UNDERRATED

Nice and simple. Just like I prefer it.

I don't have to think too much, and those who know me are aware that thinking sucks sometimes.

Brian of MGoBlog is your host. The questions are simple, and the answers follow.

Who is overrated?

Looking at the preseason poll, one team seems to stand out for me, and it's not a likely answer, I am guessing.

Texas.

Why Texas? As much as I like Colt McCoy's talent and leadership, there is something worrisome about this Texas team. They lost a ton of defensive talent, and while Mack Brown keeps re-stocking this roster with Phil Steele-approved VHTs, I'm concerned about a team starting two new corners and two new defensive ends in a conference that has more than enough offensive talent.

I'm also red-flagging an offensive line that got beaten up in the last two regular-season games (both losses) to the tune of seven sacks. It's also worth noting that a line more experienced than the one they'll field this year failed to protect their quarterback or run-block effectively down the stretch. Combined total of rushing yardage for Texas in their final three games: 283 yards. Very un-Texas, if you ask me. Three starters are gone from that line, so things might be a bit hairy at times for McCoy.

Call it a hunch, but I have Texas behind both Oklahoma and A&M in the Big 12 South. Yes, I'm serious. And yes, I'm stupid.

Who is underrated?

I could pick Wisconsin here, but I'm not sure they're underrated. I tend to think I may have overrated them, actually. Another good choice for me would be Arkansas, because I do think they're a tad overlooked. However, I look at the BlogPoll and I see a startling omission.

Boise State.

They're not sexy at all. They may have gotten lucky to an extent when they beat Oklahoma. But they're good. Real good, I'd say. Ian Johnson is one of the top backs in the nation, and even without Jared Zabransky throwing, the offense is going to motor. The line is very solid, and Taylor Tharp is a good player who deserves credit for waiting his turn behind Zabransky. I like the growth I'm expecting to see out of this defense, led by safety Marty Tadman.

The schedule is better than it was last year, when all they had was the Oregon State game. Washington will be a decent test for this team, and that Southern Mississippi game in late September will be a great matchup on the smurf turf. A Thanksgiving Day weekend showdown in Hawai'i may decide the league and could be a battle of overlooked unbeatens.

An updated BlogPoll ballot will be posted tomorrow, and more conference previews are coming, too. If I'm lucky, I'll get the SEC done tonight. Again, check my WDSM blog for ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and Big 12 previews.