Blue Practice Field a Sign the Mental Battle Is Lost for Oregon State

90 percent of the battle is half-mental, or something.

Oftentimes, when you see a team change their whole routine, their whole way of doing things, all for the sake of one opponent, it means the mental battle is lost. Or won, depending on your perspective.

The Oregon State Beavers play at Boise State this weekend. Boise, as you probably know, is famous for having blue turf on its home field. It's not thought to be a really big deal, more of an anomaly that people deal with and generally think is pretty cute.

Oregon State doesn't think it's cute. They think it's an advantage. So much so that they painted their practice field blue in advance of this week's game.

While this is definitely funny, it's not a good sign for the Beavers. Not that anyone really thought they stood much of a chance in Boise, but the change in their normal ways shows they are behind in the all-important mental battle.

Instead of just having a normal week of practice and maybe doing some crowd-noise prep, Oregon State altered their normal environment and did it in the name of trying to get ready for the Boise environment.

The environment is important, but the devotion to that preparation could have been better spent trying to get the defense ready to face Kellen Moore and a prolific passing attack, or maybe to get the offense ready for what is going to be a physical battle along the front.

Then again, if Oregon State wins this game, WAC teams will go bankrupt trying to buy blue paint for their practice fields.

That's the other part of the football world. It's a copycat society.

In this case, there will be no need. Boise wins going away.

The pick: Boise State

Alabama at Arkansas
Listen, I'd love to sit here and say that Arkansas has a shot at taking down the defending champs.

Then came the fourth quarter Saturday against Georgia.

Arkansas had that team BEAT. Georgia was done for, and the Razorbacks somehow let UGA back in the game. That happened because the Arkansas defense is vulnerable, and the Hogs can't run the ball.

That's a bad sign going into a game with Alabama, who will likely win the trench battle on both sides of the ball.

Yes, the Tide can be beaten, but they can't be beaten by a team with a one-dimensional offense -- even one with a quarterback as good as Ryan Mallett.

The pick: Alabama

Other games (home team in CAPS)
MICHIGAN over Bowling Green
MICHIGAN STATE over Northern Colorado
PURDUE over Toledo
IOWA over Ball State
NORTHWESTERN over Central Michigan
WISCONSIN over Austin Peay
OHIO STATE over Eastern Michigan
(Note: How the hell is this game on ABC? Thank goodness I won't be home for the carnage.)
PENN STATE over Temple
Stanford over NOTRE DAME
FLORIDA over Kentucky
Nevada over BYU
INDIANA over Akron
AUBURN over South Carolina
MINNESOTA over Northern Illinois
LSU over West Virginia
(Note: This might be the best game played under the lights anywhere Saturday.)
ARIZONA over California

Last week: 17-3
Season: 45-8

Bring on the Cupcakes: College Football Opens With Its Usual Whimper

It's kind of like what Paul Crewe says in the 2005 version of The Longest Yard, when asked by the prison guy how to best get his football team ready for a game.

"In college, we'd start every season against Appalachian State or some slack Division II team. Kick the living (bad word) out of them."

Appalachian State irony aside -- right, Michigan fans -- this is how college football teams start their season.

Find a Division I-AA team that stinks. Sign a contract to play them. Beat the snot out of them. Move on to Week 2.

It takes a bit of fun out of this upcoming weekend, but not all of it. After all, the season does open this week. There are some good games.

The rules around here are pretty simple. We pick every game involving a Big Ten team to beef up the overall percentage. Then we grab a few interesting games and pick those. We try to do it once a week. Sometimes it fails.

The picks fail more often, but such is life.

The top games this week are as follows:

Pittsburgh at Utah (Thursday)
Connecticut at Michigan
Purdue at Notre Dame
Oregon State vs. TCU at Arlington
LSU vs. North Carolina at Atlanta
Boise State vs. Virginia Tech at Baltimore

That's not a ton to pick from. Boise/VTech is the best of the bunch, and I don't think it's particularly close. We'll get to see this elite Boise offense operate against a strong Tech defense. Kellen Moore threw three picks in over 400 passes last year, but if the Hokies are on their game, they could match that in one night.

What people aren't talking about enough is the Boise State defense. The Broncos don't give teams a lot, and they have some potential stars like Ryan Winterswyk, Billy Winn, and Winston Venable out there. I know Tyrod Taylor has some receivers to work with, and I know he has Ryan Williams back to run the ball. I get that. But this Boise defense can seriously go. This isn't going to be about Virginia Tech having some sort of advantage in the trenches because they're from a "major conference" and Boise is from the WAC.

After all, we all thought that last year when Boise played Oregon, and the Broncos did the mouth-punching on that night.

This team is legit, and they're playing with a chip on their shoulder. Boise wins Monday night.

The pick: Boise State

As for the other games (home team in CAPS) ...

Thursday night
UTAH over Pittsburgh
SOUTH CAROLINA over Southern Miss
INDIANA over Towson
OHIO STATE over Marshall
Minnesota over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

Saturday
MICHIGAN STATE over Western Michigan
PENN STATE over Youngstown State
IOWA over Eastern Illinois
Missouri over Illinois (at St. Louis)
Colorado State over Colorado (at Denver)
MICHIGAN over Connecticut
NOTRE DAME over Purdue
Northwestern over VANDERBILT
TCU over Oregon State (at Arlington)
LSU over North Carolina (at Atlanta)
Wisconsin over UNLV

Monday
Navy over Maryland (at Baltimore)

Last year: 68-40 (we think)

Boise State to the Mountain West?

All the talk about conference expansion seems to have focused on the wrong leagues.

Sure, the Big Ten, Pac 10, and Big East are among the "notable" "power" conferences involved in talks about membership changes. There's no question that moves by one of the "notable" "power" conferences will set off a chain reaction of stuff happening.

However, the most significant and noteworthy move could come from outside college football's power structure. Such a move might cause a change in what we all think the power structure really is.

As June starts, we are approaching what could be a significant day in the history of the Mountain West Conference. The league meets next week, amid speculation that they will be looking to add Boise State to the already-formidable lineup.

Dr. Saturday has more on this, making it sound like it's pretty much a done deal if the conference goes through with the formal invite.

Let's not make a mistake about this. It's a football move. Doc explains as best he can.

... even rival presidents would have a hard time begrudging Boise a move that would mean more money, less travel, better competition and, if the stars align, a shot at an automatic BCS bid. As you may be aware, that title comes with a pretty significant bump in pay grade.

To recap, the Mountain West must pass the BCS' three-pronged test for an automatic bid to one of the big-money bowls, which takes into account a) The average rank of each conference's highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings; b) The average computer rank of the entire conference lineup at the end of the regular season; and c) A complicated point system that measures the percentage of each conference's lineup in the top 25 of the final BCS standings, all over a given four-year period.

For the next BCS negotiations, the four-year period in question will be 2008-11, and though the MWC's "Big Three" – BYU, TCU and Utah – have kept the conference in pretty good standing so far according to criteria a) and c), the bottom half of the league remains an anchor when it comes to the averaging the standing of the entire conference. By that crucial measure, the Mountain West ranks seventh; the BCS requires a top-six finish in all categories. (With likely exceptions for the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac-10 and ACC, of course, should the need ever arise – those carefully negotiated bowl tie-ins must be fulfilled, after all. Otherwise, based on the first two years of the ongoing evaluation period, the ACC would seem to be on particularly thin ice.) Adding Boise's nearly flawless record to the mix would dramatically increase the MWC's chances of making the cut; if nothing else, it would provide enough of a boost to increase their chances of being granted an exception, however farfetched that scenario may be. Above all, it makes the Mountain West a stronger conference on the field, and therefore a more marketable conference off it – certainly too good to remain in the television ghetto of Versus and the mtn.

The idea of the Mountain West stealing an automatic BCS bid is pretty hilarious. Even if they can't do it, the addition of Boise State gives them a pronounced top four of Boise State, TCU, Utah, and BYU. You have Air Force just outside that group, but perfectly capable of picking off any or all of those top four teams in the right year.

It's a football move, though. With all due respect to Boise's other athletic programs, the Mountain West is looking to boost its football profile, and they know they can't do it if they simply wait for New Mexico and UNLV to form more consistent programs. Wyoming isn't putting them over the hump, either.

The intention is obvious. The Mountain West wants to be stronger in the most important college sport you'll find.

To me, though, the most interesting offshoot of a Boise State invite to the Mountain West is its potential implications on the Big East and ACC.

Regardless of whether the Mountain West can swipe an automatic BCS bid, the league could fire the first shot in a historic run of expansion that could change the landscape of the sport. Without anything else happening, Boise State moving would apply a ton of pressure on the Big Ten and Pac 10, both of whom seem to want to expand to parts unknown. You've talked the game, and now the piddly little Mountain West has played the game before you could pull anything off. Better back up that big talk, or wind up looking pretty dumb in the end.

In essence, there would then be heat on the Big East and ACC, both of whom could get raided in expansion efforts, and both of whom could find it tough to stay in "automatic BCS bid" territory.

All because of Boise State.

Boise State could start the avalanche of conference expansion. Wow.

Imagine what would have been said to someone who uttered those words five years ago.