Preseason NCHC Predictions

Another season is upon us, and now it's time to fruitlessly predict how the NCHC will finish pull out the crystal ball and make some picks.

Before we do that, here's how they finished in 2014-15:

1. North Dakota
2. Miami
3. Omaha
4. Denver
5. UMD
6. St. Cloud State
7. Western Michigan
8. Colorado College

For fun, here's how I picked them:

1. Miami
2. St. Cloud State
3. North Dakota
4. UMD
5. Omaha
6. Denver
7. Western Michigan
8. Colorado College

Not as bad as the year before, but still not very good. Of course, that won't stop me from trying again. I wish I wasn't so stubborn.

8. Colorado College

I was prepared to move the Tigers out of the cellar, even with questions up front and in goal, largely because of defenseman Jaccob Slavin. Then I turned on the NHL Network and saw him playing for the Carolina Hurricanes. Guess that means he's not coming back.

(Kidding. I knew he was gone. But seeing that was a stark reminder of how young CC is going to be this season.)

It seemed the Tigers had some moments of positivity in Mike Haviland's first season. There were plenty of nights where CC was competitive and just lost out on some bad bounces, or the stunning lack of scoring really reared its ugly head. I just don't see how they get out from that with 14 freshmen on the roster this year. Haviland will have a much better team, though. If the Tigers get goaltending they could really surprise.

7. Western Michigan

How stupid competitive is the NCHC? Western Michigan is good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. I have them seventh in an eight-team league.

Highly-respected veteran coach Andy Murray lost big forward Colton Hargrove to the Boston Bruins, but he returns speedy forward Sheldon Dries and highly-skilled Nolan Laporte, who can score goals while also getting under the skin of opponents. The hard-nosed Broncos did lose talented defenseman Kenney Morrison and four-year goalie Frank Slubowski, but Lukas Hafner is back in net, and Murray has some promising young defensemen to deploy.

(The team overall is young. Laporte and Hafner are the best -- in my view -- of a five-man senior class at WMU.)

Western might not wow anyone with its speed or pace of play, but the Broncos are a formidable foe because of how consistently hard they play. They're as good as anyone in the league at making life hell for opponents in all zones.

6. St. Cloud State

Last year, the Huskies finished sixth in the NCHC. How did they end their season? By blitzing Omaha in a two-game road playoff sweep, then taking down No. 1 North Dakota in the NCHC semifinals before bowing to Miami in the title game. Oh, and then SCSU went to the NCAA West Regional, beat Michigan Tech, and ended its season a win away from a second trip to the Frozen Four in three years.

Not too shabby, eh?

Bob Motzko has built a power here, a team capable of annual NCAA trips, and this year is no different. With that being said, the Huskies do have to fill some holes. Goal-scorer Jonny Brodzinski left early, and SCSU also lost steady leaders like Joe Rehkamp and Nick Oliver up front, along with Andrew Prochno and Tim Daly in the back.

Talent? They've got it. Joey Benik already made the leap, and he could be a darkhorse Hobey candidate. David Morley and Kalle Kossila lead a strong senior class, and Charlie Lindgren is rock-solid in goal.

5. Omaha

Some teams lost talented players. Omaha lost its backbone. If not for Ryan Massa, UNO doesn't make the Frozen Four. He might not have been at his best in the semifinal loss to Providence, but Massa was as good as any goalie in the country last year, and he was that way basically from start to finish.

He's gone now, but Dean Blais isn't shedding tears and wondering how his team will compete. While Massa was backstopping UNO to Boston, young players were learning the ropes and showing a ridiculous amount of promise. Now, the Mavs have Avery Peterson and Jake Randolph back as sophomores, joined by junior forwards Austin Ortega and Jake Guentzel, as dangerous as anyone in the league.

Blais will need Luc Snuggerud and Joel Messner to keep stepping forward on the blue line, as depth there is a bit questionable.

4. North Dakota

"Bruce, you're doing it again. You're underrating UND."

North Dakota fans should be happy. It seems I do this every year, and every year UND outperforms my expectations.

I respected Dave Hakstol as much as any opposing coach I've ever dealt with. I've heard nothing but good things about Brad Berry, who takes over after Hakstol left for the NHL. This prediction isn't about coaching. Not in the least.

Instead, I'm curious about UND's forward depth and goaltending. Even if Drake Caggiula puts up All-NCHC numbers as I believe he will, and even if Nick Schmaltz has the big year I think he will, I don't know that North Dakota has the scoring depth to win the league again.

What do I know? That North Dakota's blue line -- featuring Paul LaDue, Troy Stecher, captain Gage Ausmus, and soon-to-emerge Tucker Poolman -- is as good as any in college hockey. And just think: Jordan Schmaltz left early for pro hockey.

3. Miami

A disappointing end to last season, for sure, losing to Providence in the first round of the NCAAs, and when you look on paper, it's easy to say Miami was gutted up front. Austin Czarnik, Riley Barber, and Blake Coleman are all gone.

But the underrated Sean Kuraly and Anthony Louis are both back up front, and the RedHawks were able to supplement a large senior class (ten guys, including both primary goalies) with another strong recruiting class, led by NTDP star Jack Roslovic.

Defenseman Matthew Caito is one of the seniors, and sophomore Louie Belpedio will be one of the nation's best blue-liners this year (you'll notice I voted Belpedio to my preseason all-league team).

Despite the heavy losses, I expect Miami will content. Rico Blasi's team might not score as much this year, but they'll be stronger from the net out to make up the difference.

2. Denver

Similar to North Dakota, I do question Denver's forward depth. Trevor Moore and Danton Heinen are the most explosive forwards in the conference, but Jim Montgomery does need to find them a new center (assuming he keeps them on the same line). The good news? With all due respect to Daniel Doremus, Montgomery could put a broomstick in between those two and get 20 points out of it (it's an old wrestling analogy, just go with me on it). If Montgomery needs volunteers to play center on that line, I'll look into my college eligibility.

In all seriousness, you're not going to find a better one-two scoring punch, possibly in the country. Whoever plays center will be a better player for it, just having these two to feed. We talk about great centers making the linemates better. In DU's case, the unbelievably-talented Moore and Heinen can make the center better.

(Again, assuming they stay on the same line. I'd have to think DU at least starts out that way.)

Joey LaLeggia is the biggest loss in the NCHC, but Denver's blue line isn't a barren wasteland without him. Nolan Zajac and Will Butcher are ready, and Montgomery has some nice complimentary pieces in Matt VanVoorhis and Adam Plant. Freshmen Blake Hillman and Sean Mostrom will compete for a piece of the pie as well.

Oh, and the goalies. Tanner Jaillet and Evan Cowley both return, and while both had their share of struggles at times, Montgomery has a potent tandem in net.

1. UMD

Before you cry "HOMER!," know this:

2015-16 is my 11th year calling UMD hockey. I'm such a terrible homer that this is the first time I've ever picked UMD to win its conference.

And I have my reasons.

It starts with preseason All-NCHC goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo. Here's what I wrote about him in March:

Kaskisuo was fantastic in the NCAA Tournament, to the point I voted him Most Outstanding Player for the Northeast Regional (votes were due before BU got the late power play). He played well in both games, and this summer will be a key to his success going forward. I think he has a chance to be one of the best goalies in the NCHC, if not Division I, next season if he has a good offseason.

Now, we see it all come together for Kaskisuo. He unquestionably had a rough patch last season, and there were times his fundamentals were just a little off what they should be. If he can improve that .917 he put up as a freshman by even a couple percentage points, UMD is off and running. If something happens to Kaskisuo, senior Matt McNeely is waiting in the wings. "Matty Ice" only got in five games last year, but one of those was a crucial 2-1 win over Minnesota. In that game at the North Star College Cup, McNeely played possibly his best game as a Bulldog and helped UMD snap a four-game losing streak that threatened to spoil a promising season.

Preseason all-league defenseman and cap'n Andy Welinski leads a stout blue line that returns big-minute guys Willie Raskob and Carson Soucy (emerging as a top prospect on the Wild blue line, by the way), along with improved senior Willie Corrin. Oh, and Hermantown's Neal Pionk debuts this year after two strong years in the USHL.

Up front, the top line of Tony Cameranesi, Austin Farley, and Karson Kuhlman return intact, along with juniors Dominic Toninato and Alex Iafallo. UMD adds former Hibbing star Adam Johnson after he had a very good year in the USHL last year.

Not that it should matter, but given the difficulty UMD had extracting points from games against Western Michigan last year, it probably helps the Bulldogs that they only see Western Michigan once this year. It's the kind of scheduling break that could make a difference in such a competitive league.

UMD has skill, size, depth, and goaltending. I believe the Bulldogs have the fewest holes in the NCHC, and they are my pick to claim the Penrose Cup.

Preseason All-NCHC Team Announced

The NCHC announced its preseason all-league team yesterday. Here is the pertinent information.

Four teams are represented on the 2015 NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team led by two selections each from Denver and Minnesota Duluth. The Pioneers placed two forwards on the team in junior Trevor Moore and sophomore Danton Heinen, who earned 21 and 20 votes respectively. The third forward is North Dakota senior Drake Caggiula, who garnered 17 votes. UMD senior defenseman Andy Welinski anchors the Preseason All-NCHC defensive pairing with 22 votes while Miami senior Matthew Caito is the other defenseman, receiving 10 votes. Minnesota Duluth sophomore goaltender Kasimir Kaskisuo completed the Preseason All-NCHC Team with 14 votes.

Moore (Thousand Oaks, Calif.) was a First-Team All-NCHC selection and the NCHC Forward of the Year as a sophomore in 2014-15, when he led the NCHC with 22 goals and was third in the conference with 44 points in 39 games. His 30 points in conference play also led the NCHC while his 13 goals tied for the league lead. Heinen (Langley, B.C.) was the NCHC Rookie of the Year and a Second-Team All-NCHC recipient a season ago when he tied for the NCHC scoring lead with 45 points, third among freshmen nationally, including 16 goals in 40 games. The Boston Bruins prospect also chipped in 26 points in conference play, tops along all freshmen. Caggiula (Whitby, Ont.), also a Second-Team All-NCHC honoree in 2014-15, compiled 36 points in 42 games on 18 goals and assists each. In conference play, he tied for the NCHC lead with 13 goals and totaled 22 points.

On the blue line, Welinski (Duluth, Minn.) was another Second-Team All-NCHC member from last season, tallying 21 points in 40 games with 51 blocked shots. The Anaheim Ducks prospect recorded 12 points, including seven goals, and blocked 25 shots in conference play as a junior.  Caito (Coto de Caza, Calif.) was an NCHC Honorable Mention pick last year when he compiled 24 points in 39 games and posted a plus-19 rating, tops among NCHC defensemen a season ago. In conference play, he tallied 16 points, including three goals, blocked 45 shots and accrued a plus-10 rating as a junior.

Rounding out the NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team is Kaskisuo (Vantaa, Finland), who earned NCHC All-Rookie Team honors in goal last season after posting an 18-14-3 record while making 36 starts, recording a 2.30 goals-against average and posting a .917 save percentage. He was one of just two NCHC netminders last year to start all 24 conference games as he went 12-9-3 with a 2.27 GAA and a .918 save percentage.

Last season, four of the six student-athletes chosen for the NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team were also named to the 2014-15 NCHC All-Conference First Team at the end of the season.

2015 NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team
F – Trevor Moore, Denver, Jr. – 21 votes
F – Danton Heinen, Denver, So. – 20 votes
F – Drake Caggiula, North Dakota, Sr. – 17 votes
D – Andy Welinski, Minnesota Duluth, Sr. – 22 votes
D – Matthew Caito, Miami, Sr. – 10 votes
G – Kasimir Kaskisuo, Minnesota Duluth, So. – 14 votes

For those interested, here's how I voted:

Forwards
Moore
Heinen
Tony Cameranesi, UMD

Defensemen
Welinski
Louie Belpedio, Miami

Goalie
Kaskisuo

Most difficult choices I had were Cameranesi over Austin Ortega and Drake Caggiula at forward, and Belpedio over Caito, Paul LaDue, and Carson Soucy on defense.

For UMD's sake, I hope the voters are as sharp with these picks as they were last year. If Kaskisuo especially is good enough to be all-conference in March, UMD will be in great position going into the postseason.

NCHC Preseason Poll and All-Conference Teams Announced

The ramp-up to hockey season continues. The National Collegiate Hockey Conference convened Media Day events in Minneapolis Thursday.

(Y'all don't care, but sorry I couldn't make it, as it's my 15th wedding anniversary, and I'd like to make it to 16 and beyond.)

(And yes, I feel old sometimes.)

Anyway, the league announced the results of its annual preseason polls. Media were asked to pick the order of finish (eight-way tie for first was not an option) and an all-league team. My votes were already published on the blog here.

After finishing second in the inaugural season of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference, North Dakota has been tabbed as the favorite to win the NCHC regular-season title in 2014-15 by media, as the conference released the NCHC Preseason Poll Thursday in advance of its Media Day.

North Dakota totaled 181 points from the 25 media members who voted in the poll, including receiving 12 first-place votes, the most of any team. Three different teams received at least one first-place vote with Miami coming in second in the preseason poll with 167 points and nine first-place votes. St. Cloud State, the defending Penrose Cup champions, was selected to finish third, receiving 151 points in the poll, including four first-place votes.

Coming in fourth in the NCHC Preseason Poll was Denver, who finished 2013-14 strong by capturing the inaugural NCHC Frozen Faceoff championship. The Pioneers collected 117 points, while Minnesota Duluth was right behind in fifth with 112 points. Omaha placed sixth in the poll, compiling 73 points, while Western Michigan was just behind in seventh with 67 points. Rounding out the preseason poll was Colorado College, which finished seventh a season ago and received 32 points from the media.

North Dakota returns 20 letterwinners from a 2013-14 squad that finished 25-14-3 overall, including placing second in the NCHC at 15-9-0 after losing out on the regular-season title to SCSU on the final night of the season. UND advanced to the NCAA Frozen Four a season ago and is primed for another strong run, boasting a roster with 14 NHL draft picks, including junior goaltender Zane McIntyre, who was a unanimous NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team selection.

Miami, who was the NCHC preseason favorite a season ago, struggled in the NCHC’s inaugural season, finishing eighth with a record of 15-20-3 overall and 6-17-1-1 in conference play. But the RedHawks showed promise late in the season, making a run to the Frozen Faceoff championship game before falling to Denver. Miami brings back 19 letterwinners from that team, including NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team selections senior forward Austin Czarnik and junior forward Riley Barber, who finished first and second respectively in the overall NCHC scoring race in 2013-14.

St. Cloud State, the lone other team to receive first-place votes, won the inaugural regular-season title with a record of 15-6-3-0 and finished 22-11-5 overall while reaching the NCAA West Regional Final. The Huskies bring back 21 letterwinners from that team, led by junior forward Jonny Brodzinski, who was selected to the NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team.

NCHC Preseason Poll
1.       North Dakota – 181 points (12 first-place votes)
2.       Miami – 167  (9)
3.       St. Cloud State – 151 (4)
4.       Denver – 117 (0)
5.       Minnesota Duluth – 112 (0)
6.       Omaha – 73 (0)
7.       Western Michigan  - 67 (0)
8.       Colorado College – 32 (0)

Here's the release on the preseason all-NCHC team.

Five NCHC teams are represented on the six-man NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team, led by two from Miami in senior forward Austin Czarnik and junior forward Riley Barber. The lone unanimous selection on the team is North Dakota junior goaltender Zane McIntyre, who was listed on all 25 ballots. Rounding out the group of forwards is St. Cloud State junior forward Jonny Brodzinski, while the defensive pair of Denver senior Joey LaLeggia and Colorado College sophomore Jaccob Slavin complete the team.

Czarnik, who received 23 votes, was a NCHC First-Team All-Conference selection last year after leading the NCHC with both 34 assists and 47 points in 37 games a season ago. Brodzinski, who compiled 19 votes, was named NCHC Honorable Mention in 2013-14 while finishing fourth in the conference with 41 points, including 21 goals. Barber (12 votes) was a NCHC Second-Team All-Conference pick last season while finishing second in the overall scoring race behind his teammate Czarnik with 44 points, including 19 goals.

Anchoring the blue line is LaLeggia (19 votes), who is the lone other returning First-Team All-NCHC selection along with Czarnik. LaLeggia, the reigning NCHC Defenseman of the Year, tied for the NCHC lead among defensemen in 2013-14 with 25 points and had a NCHC-best 12 goals among blueliners on the season. Slavin (13 votes), who was the inaugural NCHC Rookie of the Year, shared the defenseman scoring lead with LaLeggia by also tallying 25 points, including 20 assists – tops among NCHC defensemen.

Completing the Preseason All-NCHC Team is McIntyre, who garnered NCHC Honorable Mention as a sophomore. McIntyre compiled a conference-best 1.99 goals-against average a season ago, while posting a .926 save percentage and went 20-10-3 between the pipes with the 20 wins tying for the league lead.

The NCHC Preseason Poll will be released Thursday in advance of Media Day.

The NCHC’s second season begins with four exhibition games Saturday, Oct. 4 while regular-season play begins Friday, Oct. 10 with seven of the eight teams in action. Conference play opens the following Friday, Oct. 17 as Omaha travels to Western Michigan and North Dakota heads to Colorado College. Watch over 100 games live throughout the season on NCHC.tv.

NCHC Preseason All-Conference Team
F - Austin Czarnik, Miami, Sr. – 23 votes
F – Jonny Brodzinski, St. Cloud State, Jr. – 19 votes
F – Riley Barber, Miami, Jr. – 12 votes
D – Joey LaLeggia, Denver, Sr. – 19 votes
D – Jaccob Slavin, Colorado College, So. – 13 votes
G – Zane McIntyre, North Dakota, Jr. – 25 votes (unanimous)

Vikings Sit Starters Thursday

Did you watch the Vikings game against San Diego on Friday night?

It wasn't good.

The Chargers were sitting 18 starters, including a number of their elite defensive players. Most notably, cornerback Quentin Jammer was sidelined. By no means do I think the Chargers are a one- or two-man operation on defense, but one would think so many guys out would give Minnesota an advantage.

Or not.

Christian Ponder was shaky, the running game wasn't sharp without Adrian, and the Vikings lost 12-10. Ponder was hit way too much, and while the Vikings tried to put some of this on him, there's a chunk that has to fall on the linemen, especially Matt Kalil, the rookie who had his share of rough moments in the game.

How does Leslie Frazier respond?

He gives most of his starters the night off for Thursday's game at Houston.

The Star Tribune's Jim Souhan thinks this is a flawed idea.

I just listened to Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave downplay his team's struggles during the Friday night loss to San Diego. He shouldn't be taking this approach. He should be demanding that they play on Thursday until they put together an impressive drive, however long that may take. This is no time to go soft on a young, unproven team coming off an embarrassing performance.

I'm not sure I agree with Souhan, but I do think there's something to be said for reps when you're dealing with so many young players, and so many guys who haven't played together before.

Ponder didn't look good at all Friday. Maybe he would struggle again Thursday, but it's more likely he would play better over one series, and perhaps it would be a necessary jolt of confidence for the second-year signal caller.

Kalil was not good in his first extended action against a 3-4 defense as a pro. There's a chance Kalil would have problems again on Thursday, but he needs reps at this point. He isn't going to become more intimately familiar with the offense while he's standing on the sideline cracking jokes with his teammates.

Yeah, it probably doesn't matter. Minnesota isn't going to be anyone's pick to make the playoffs, even though we all know the average is a six-team turnover from year to year. If anyone is going to make the playoffs in the NFC North after missing last year, it's the Bears.

But it would be nice to see more aggression out of the Vikings' coaches. It's one thing to be cautious with Adrian Peterson, who's coming off major reconstructive surgery. It's another to give the kid-gloves treatment to guys who haven't done anything on the field to merit it, and who aren't hurt.

For the sake of Vikings fans, let's hope this is a good sign, but it doesn't appear to be one.