Danica's Miscalculation

The NASCAR season opens for real this week, as Speedweeks hit a fever pitch at Daytona. The Sprint Cup drivers hit the track Thursday for the Duel races, which will determine the final starting grid for the Daytona 500 Sunday. They also serve as a last chance of sorts for the drivers who have yet to qualify for the race on speed.

(I'm not even going to try to lay the qualifying procedure out. Not sure I understand it myself. Click here for a primer.)

They are absolutely not the focal point of any media attention in Daytona. Instead, the Super Bowl of stock car racing is taking a backseat to the Go Daddy sideshow known as Danica Patrick.

With all due respect, Danica drove well in Saturday's ARCA series race at Daytona. She belongs in a stock car, and she will likely develop into a good NASCAR driver. In that respect, she is not a sideshow. None of what you're going to see at Daytona is a good thing. She isn't asking for the overwhelming attention she will get, and there's a good chance she'll be embarrassed by some of it.

However, the media has jumped on this like they jump on Brett Favre, Alex Rodriguez, and other needle-moving sports figures. They're all-in.

That means it will be a sideshow, unless Danica wins, which is extremely unlikely. That said, anything can happen in a plate race.

Patrick has announced she will run the No. 7 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet for JR Motorsports Saturday, as the NASCAR Nationwide Series kicks off its 2010 season at Daytona.

It's not a mistake because she's taking attention away from the race. She's going to do that in every race she runs. It's not a mistake because she appears to be -- at least for one race -- taking a ride away from Kelly Bires, who was signed to JR Motorsports to replace Brad Keselowski (now with Penske Racing). Bires was scheduled to run the full Nationwide schedule, but now will miss the first race because the other JR car is being run by team owner Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

It's a mistake because Danica doesn't need to expose herself to this spotlight so early in her stock-car racing career.

The season-opening race is a big deal for everyone, from drivers to crew members to media. Because it's such a big deal, a ton of Sprint Cup drivers will run the Nationwide race to maximize sponsor dollars for their owners.

The same kind of spotlight isn't on the Week 2 race at California. The entry list will be less cluttered with Sprint Cup names, and Patrick would have her chance to get her feet wet against competition less hungry for a win. It's more the kind of race she'll see in her other Nationwide Series starts, and it's a better race for her to start with.

Daytona, with its high banks, high speeds, and high tempers, is not a good place to give a rookie her first outing.

Perhaps she will drive the wheels off the car, impress everyone, and score a finish higher than anyone expects. But the potential for her to be involved -- directly or indirectly -- in the kinds of incidents she doesn't need to get into is too high.

For my taste, it's just too risky to send the rookie out for this race. JR Motorsports could have and should have convinced Patrick to wait for California to make her debut. There, she could have run a solid race, won the respect of her peers, and learned the give-and-take of stock-car racing at that level.

Instead, she's going right into the fire, and it isn't the kind of risk anyone should be taking.

'Who Dat?' Done It

As odd as it is to write, the New Orleans Saints are Super Bowl champions.

Good for them, I say.

It wasn't a fluke, either. The Saints fell behind 10-0, but it was almost like a rope-a-dope maneuver. From that point, New Orleans owned the show, outscoring Indianapolis 31-7 and clearly establishing themselves as the better-prepared team, along with being the better team.

There are many ways to emerge victorious in a one-game playoff. It's part of why playoffs are a bit of a misnomer when it comes to determining the best team in a given sport. However, there is no questioning a team that dominated virtually from start to finish, and then beat three future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in very different ways to win a championship.

(Think about it. The Saints jumped all over Kurt Warner and the Cardinals, running up points like crazy and then coasting through most of the second half. They practically broke Brett Favre in half in the NFC title game. While they didn't hit Peyton Manning much, they rattled the hell out of him mentally and confused him like he hasn't been confused in a long time.

Yes, I know I picked Indianapolis. If I had it to do over again, I'd pick the Colts, too. Not to pat myself on the back, but at least I got part of the equation right.

Turnovers. Special teams. Fundamentals. These things don't always decide games. But they're usually a good starting point. And they're terribly hard to predict. ... it's so hard to say that one team or the other will win the battle of "little things" in a game like this.

The Saints won the battle.

I had a feeling before the game that something like this would happen. Sean Payton made clear his message to his team throughout the week, and he made clear during meetings with the CBS broadcasters that he would not let his team get caught playing passive, not-to-lose football.

They were going to be the aggressors, and in doing so, the Saints made up a new blueprint for success in the NFL.

New Orleans treated this like a hockey game, really. They wanted to initiate from the start, but they also knew they weren't going to bash Manning around like they did to Favre. Instead of initiating a physical assault on Manning, they initiated a mental one. Read Dan Graziano, FanHouse colleague, on the Saints' plan.

You have to go back to Monday, Jan. 25, the day after the Saints beat the Vikings to claim the NFC title. In a meeting with his coaches, Saints head coach Sean Payton was discussing the idea that they would do well to encourage the Colts to run.

"You guys can't be upset," Payton said to defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, "if they have 100 yards rushing."

Williams, who agreed with the sentiment, went a little harder.

"We can't be upset if they have 200 yards rushing," Williams said.

So a couple of days later, Payton addressed the defense in a team meeting and hedged.

"You guys can't be upset if they get 150 yards rushing," he said.

So a multi-faceted game plan developed, and one of its key facets was a shift to a 3-4 alignment for the first quarter so the Saints could cover the Colts' receivers deep and invite them to run the ball up the middle.

"We tried to invite them to run as much as they would do it," Williams said late Sunday night, when it was all over.

The Colts did. They racked up 66 rushing yards in the first quarter and raced out to a 10-0 lead that might have had Saints fans panicked but was pretty much along the lines of what Williams had been expecting. As long as the score didn't get out of hand, he knew he could stick with the amoeba game plan, which called for a switch back to a 4-3 alignment for the second quarter and then a ton of shifting looks in the second half.

"You can't beat Peyton Manning if you don't keep changing what he's looking at," Williams said.

That last quote is the money shot from this game. You can read 3,000 more words on the Super Bowl, and none of them will be as significant as those 14.

Finally, someone had the guts to change defensive looks, possibly allowing themselves to be singed for a time, because they knew they couldn't afford to get into a pattern.

I'm not about to say that this is the downfall of the Colts or of Manning. He's an elite quarterback, and he will be enshrined in Canton someday. He will have more chances to win rings, and he will likely hoist the Lombardi Trophy again.

But he met his match -- for at least one night -- in Williams. He met his match with an opponent who refused to sit back and play passively, allowing Manning to dictate matchups and tempo for four quarters. He met his match with an opponent who refused to allow Manning to adjust, because Williams was prepared to be the initiator in the mental game during the second half.

Payton, however, gets the award for aggression. It's one thing to see a hole in a team's kick return game that can be attacked by an onside kick. It's another to 1) have enough faith in your kicker (who had never tried an onside kick), 2) have enough faith in a defense that was beaten regularly in the first half to make a stop if necessary, and 3) have the guts to make the brashest Super Bowl play call in years.

The guts of Payton, the confidence and swagger of Williams, and the talent of guys like Brees, Tracy Porter, and -- yes -- Thomas Morstead made this team unbeatable on this night.

Even for a guy like Manning, who is used to having nights like this go his way. This time, Manning found an opponent who refused to let him win, no matter what he could have tried.

Let's see how many teams follow the blueprint, because it's not a popular path to choose.

NFL teams aren't known for ruthless aggression from a standpoint of strategery. They prefer to do what everyone else does, and play this bland, conservative style of football, hoping the other teams screws up.

Since guys like Manning rarely screw up, teams who play the Colts conservatively are ripe for the picking. But the Saints clearly saw things on film in the AFC title game, when the Jets bottled the Colts up until the two-minute warning of the first half.

Where the Jets went wrong, though, is that they had no answer once Manning figured them out. They didn't have anything to throw at him, because he had seen it all and had a way to beat it.

Williams, as noted by Graziano, knew going in that they had to be constantly changing looks, the way the Saints do on offense.

By turning his defense into an offense, Williams held the key to a Super Bowl win for a franchise -- and a city -- that will revere it like no other.

Game 30: UMD at Michigan Tech

HOUGHTON, Mich. -- The only thing good about Friday's loss to Michigan Tech is that I can stop the stupid musical interludes, because they clearly weren't destined to work for long.

Fine by me.

Now, time to break this 1-4 slide. And, no, it won't be much better if it becomes a 2-4 stretch. But 2-4 is a helluva lot better than 1-5 if you look at it that way. So go win, boys.

Lines.

UMD
Connolly (Mike) - Connolly (Jack) - Grun
Bordson - Oleksuk - Seidel
Fulton - Akins - Fontaine
Danberg - DeLisle - Hendrickson

Olsen - Montgomery
Bergman - Lamb
Olson - Kishel

Reiter - Hjelle

MTU
Royer - Olson - Gwilliam
Baker - Kattelus - Dobson
Pietila - MacLeod - Bunger
Vlaisavljevich - Witt - Lickteig

Kivisto - Nielsen
Cousens - VanWagner
Doriott - Seigo

Genoe - Robinson - Cramer

Super Bowl XLIV: All About the Quarterbacks (Maybe)

There aren't many things in the world harder than penning a Super Bowl preview and coming up with something original.

After two weeks of storylines, press conferences, hype, overhype, and more overhype, the game is Sunday in Miami. Instead of sitting here talking about things you've already read about, let's try to keep it relatively simple.

The little things are always important in a football game.

Turnovers. Special teams. Fundamentals.

These things don't always decide games. But they're usually a good starting point. And they're terribly hard to predict.

The Green Bay Packers were plus-28 in turnover ratio this season. They lost their only playoff game this year -- at Arizona -- largely because they were minus-two in the game. Who could have seen that coming?

The Chicago Bears had an game-opening kickoff return touchdown by Devin Hester in the Super Bowl three years ago. They were then thoroughly dominated by Indianapolis and lost 29-17, despite making the only truly significant special teams play of the game.

Whoda thunk that Kurt Warner -- future Hall of Famer -- would throw the dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb pass he threw to James Harrison that turned Super Bowl XLIII on its ear before halftime? Warner knew better, and he threw it anyway, costing his team points and causing a huge shift in momentum before halftime.

These things happen in playoff football games, and it's so hard to say that one team or the other will win the battle of "little things" in a game like this.

Myth: Quarterbacks decide this game.

What if they don't? What if the defenses pick up their play and change the way it's played?

You're telling me you don't think Gregg Williams can pull a rabbit out of his hat and at least slow Peyton Manning down long enough to make him think a bit?

Same for the Colts and Drew Brees. It's crazy to think a defense that stiffened like it did during the AFC Championship could be helpless against an offense that has been notorious for slow starts on the road (Miami and Washington this season come to mind). Oh, and Brees didn't exactly light up the Vikings, especially in the second half, when they were held under 100 yards.

It's just as likely that guys like Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush will have a huge say in how the game plays out.

No need to oversimplify things. Brees and Manning are big-time quarterbacks, and the offenses are both keyed by the passing game. Both teams, however, have proven they can run the ball, and one-dimensional offense isn't likely to win the game.

The game is better with the week off.

Having watched a couple Super Bowls where the teams didn't have an off week ahead of it, I believe pretty strongly that the overall quality of play is better when you have that extra week. Most teams will build their game plan at home during the bye week, then fly to the game site Sunday or Monday before the game.

Practices happen in the host area, but neither team is doing a ton to tip their hand, because each team has a pool reporter assigned to their workouts (closed to the public). The game plan has been in place, everyone knows what is going to happen, and it's all about mental preparation and blocking out all the distractions for the game.

When you don't have the off week, you accelerate everything. In some respects, it could be a better game if you don't give coaches an extra week to overthink everything. Without the extra week, coaches are more inclined to do what got them to the Super Bowl, instead of trying to re-invent the wheel.

But you need the right coaches and players to make the short week work. With media obligations, family and friends begging for tickets, and having to get to the host city early in the week, there is a lot going on outside of the preparation. For many teams, it's proven to be too much to deal with in recent years.

Stick with the week off, NFL. The quality of the game is more important than the oversaturation of coverage that is produced when you have the off week.

The Colts are the better all-around team and will win.

It busts me up, because I want the Saints to win. But Bill Simmons probably said it best.

How dumb will you feel in the fourth quarter, with the Colts leading by 10 and driving for another score, if Manning has the New Peyton Manning Face going? Would you be kicking yourself? Would you be saying, "Why did I go against Manning? What was I thinking?"

Let's not be That Guy. Manning is better than Brees. Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Dallas Clark are better than Devery Henderson, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, and Jeremy Shockey. The Colts are better on defense, even if Dwight Freeney is limited or sidelined.

Oh, and Manning is better than anyone on the field for either team.

If you're in doubt about a game, you look at who has the better players. You have to love the story of the New Orleans Saints, but how can you argue they have better players? That's insane, and it's wrong.

Colts win.

Game 29: UMD at Michigan Tech

HOUGHTON, Mich. -- The Bulldogs enter Houghton on a bizarre winning streak of sorts. UMD has won four straight WCHA road games dating back to a Nov. 21 win over Minnesota at Mariucci Arena.

This is bizarre to me for a couple reasons:

1. UMD has experienced plenty of struggles to win in both venues in recent years (Minnesota, Minnesota State).

2. UMD has only played four WCHA road games in a span of more than two months.

Six of the last eight are on the road, so if UMD is to earn home-ice advantage in the first round of the WCHA playoffs, they'll have to do it by getting points on the road.

Lines.

UMD
Connolly (Mike) - Connolly (Jack) - Grun
Bordson - Oleksuk - Seidel
Fulton - Akins - Fontaine
Danberg - DeLisle - Flaherty

Olsen - Montgomery
Bergman - Lamb
Olson - Kishel

Reiter - Hjelle

MTU
Royer - Olson - Gwilliam
Baker - Kattelus - Dobson
Pietila - MacLeod - Bunger
Schooley - Witt - Lickteig

Kivisto - Nielsen
Cousens - VanWagner
Doriott - Seigo

Genoe - Robinson - Cramer

Since the lame musical interlude worked last weekend, here it is again.

The Winter Carnival Death Trap

Motivation is a difficult thing to predict. With that being said, it's virtually certain that a nationally-ranked team will struggle to get motivated for games against a last-place bunch.

The task is even tougher in a dead building. If there isn't atmosphere and energy in the building, a team can be more prone to playing to the level of its competition.

For UMD, there shouldn't be as many issues as usual during their annual trip to Houghton, Mich.

Yes, Michigan Tech is in last place in the WCHA. A 4-1 win Friday over Minnesota State broke a string of 15 straight games without a win (0-14-1). They have less than half as many goals (54) as their opponents (110). The penalty kill is hitting at under 70 percent for the season.

No sugarcoating here. The Huskies have had an awful season. There have been rumblings in the U.P. about the future of head coach Jamie Russell. In a town that small, there are more than a few unkind things that have been said and easily gotten back to Russell, who is a good guy and a good hockey coach. He just happens to be in a nearly-impossible situation at Michigan Tech, especially when his team is beset by injuries and can't play their normal in-your-face style that got them to a Final Five not too many years ago.

However, this weekend is different. There won't be 2,000 people milling around the MacInnes Student Ice Arena. Instead, the building will be packed, and there will be an atmosphere unlike any other weekend in Houghton.

It's Winter Carnival.

There will be huge crowds, a loud building, and people having a ton of fun. The games are part of a huge weekend celebrating the winter and the immense amount of snow they get in Houghton. Snow sculptures have been under construction on campus for a few weeks now, and they will be in full view all over this weekend. Hotels 50 miles away are booked solid.

When it comes to comparing this to something people are more familiar with, the best we can muster is a football homecoming weekend in the fall. It's very similar, only the setting is snowier and involves hockey instead of football. Alumni come back from all around, and it's a proud weekend for the people of Houghton.

Oh, and Michigan Tech is always tough during Winter Carnival. Just ask any of the last five teams who have visited for Carnival Weekend, because none of them have left with four points, regardless of how bad Michigan Tech has been. 2004 was the last time Tech was swept during Winter Carnival.

Overall, UMD has been there five times before, posting a record of 3-6-1. Michigan Tech is well over .500 all-time in Winter Carnival games.

As you can see, this won't be easy.

It becomes especially difficult if the Bulldogs can't cash in on opportunities. In November, UMD lost a game to Tech despite outshooting them by a more than 2-1 margin. Letting Tech hang around a game is a recipe for disaster, especially when they're amped up by a full and loud home building, something entirely too rare for them in recent years.

On the ice, UMD has to shut down the duo of Malcolm Gwilliam and Superior native Brett Olson, who will burn you if you let them. Jack Connolly and Mike Connolly played well Saturday with new linemate David Grun, and he brings them an edge that allows them to gain more space to make plays. Even better, it seemed Justin Fontaine only made an effective line of Drew Akins and Jordan Fulton better.

On paper, the Bulldogs have too much firepower for Michigan Tech. By a lot. The key will be focus and determination for 60 minutes both games. It's easier said than done when playing a four-win team, but being able to pull it off is a big difference between contenders and pretenders.

Just because Michigan Tech is always a tough out during this particular weekend doesn't mean it's okay to give them points.

UMD Inks Football Recruits

I don't get into Signing Day. It's hard to muster much enthusiasm for the college decisions made by teenagers who I have never seen play.

However, I do always (I think) post on here when UMD signs a recruiting class. The Bulldogs announced 18 football signees on Wednesday, and while none of them will make the kind of waves Seantrel Henderson made by deciding on USC, these kids will get the chance to help the Bulldogs build on a pretty strong foundation.

UMD won the Division II national title in 2008, then made the quarterfinals in 2009 before losing to eventual NCAA runner-up Grand Valley State (Mich.).

Here is the release from UMD:

A talent-laden group of 18 student-athletes, including a pair of local high school standouts, have signed national letters of intent to attend and play football for the the two-time defending Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference champion University of Minnesota Duluth in 2010.

"All and all, we are extremely pleased with this recruiting class -- it's a high-quality and promising group of athletes," said Bob Nielson, the 2008 D2football.com national coach of the year who completed his seventh season with the Bulldogs last fall.

"I think our coaching staff once again did a tremendous job in identifying and addressing our future needs on offense, defense and special teams. We were successful in bringing the kids we had targeted at each of the various positions and that's a testament to all of the hard work our staff put into our recruiting efforts."

The 2010 UMD recruiting class, which is comprised of five incoming freshmen from Minnesota, 10 from Wisconsin, and one each from Illinois, Michigan and Washington, is as follows:

Player Pos Hgt Wgt Hometown (High School)
Jacob Brusehaver DL 6-4 220 Hutchinson, Minn (Hutchinson HS)
Marc Dahlin OL 6-8 300 Verona, Wis. (Edgewood HS)
Dan Desorcy DB 6-0 175 Plover, Wis. (Stevens Point HS)
Aaron Esala OL 6-4 305 Ashland, Wis. (Ashland HS)
Gavin Grady LB 6-3 215 Minnetonka, Minn. (Hopkins HS)
Yusef Hassan LB 6-0 220 Burnsville, Minn (Burnsville HS)
Kal Herzog WR 6-5 195 Eau Claire, Wis. (Memorial HS)
Tyler Hilar WR 6-4 205 Conover, Wis. (Northland Pines HS)
Greg Hynes QB 6-2 185 St. Louis Park, Minn. (St. Louis Park HS)
Michael Maguire TE 6-4 220 Sammamish, Wash. (Eastlake HS)
Kerwin McKay DB 6-0 185 Kettle Moraine, Wis. (Bradford HS)
Ryan Miesbauer RB/FB 5-9 210 South Range, Wis. (Northwestern HS)
Andrew Pattock OL 6-3 295 Circle Pines, Minn. (Centennial HS)
Sam Renk DB 5-9 165 Peru, Ill. (LaSalle-Peru Township HS)
Philip Rutz OL 6-5 270 Amherst, Wis. (Amherst HS)
Austin Sikorski RB 5-10 185 Plover, Wis. (Stevens Point HS)
Mitch Van Effen WR 6-0 195 Escanaba, Mich. (Escanaba HS)
Mitch Ziegler TE 6-3 230 Kenosha, Wis. (Bradford HS)

UMD closed out its 77th season of intercollegiate football with an 11-2 overall record and made its second straight NCAA Division II playoff appearance (and third in five years) before bowing out to Grand Valley State University in the quarterfinal round. The 2008 national champion Bulldogs also laid claim to their second NSIC crown in as many years with a perfect 10-0 mark and, along the way, established 21 individual and team single-game, single-season and career marks while producing three All-Americans.

UMD has always done well with local recruits, and while they didn't get everyone this year, the two they got should be good.

Esala was a rock on the Oredockers' offensive front, and he could have a chance to play as a freshman because of his big frame.

Miesbauer starred at Northwestern, and was a big key to the quick turnaround that program experienced over the last two years. The Tigers went from a 1-8 season in 2007 to the Wisconsin Division 4 semifinals in 2009. Miesbauer might not carry the ball as much at UMD, but he is a good athlete for his size and will only get better as a fullback with the experience he will get as a Bulldog.

Stunner: Champ Isn't Always 'Best Team'

As you may have heard, Sunday is the Super Bowl.

(You'll notice that I have avoided saying much since the Packers were eliminated. I also didn't say a word about the Vikings being eliminated. It's partially by design. I figure that I'm not in Miami, and you're getting plenty of Super Bowl coverage elsewhere. I'll break down the matchup and throw out a prediction while I'm in Houghton this weekend.)

As the Colts and Saints prepare to lock horns, fans are left to marvel at the sight of No. 1 seeds advancing out of the respective conferences. It doesn't happen often.

Parity in sports is a hot-button subject. In the NFL, the objective these days is more to just get in the playoffs than it is to have a 14-2 season. Other sports, while still leaning toward the favorites, have had their moments.

Of course, it helps that other pro sports feature best-of-seven series in the playoffs. The format tends to tilt in favor of the superior team, since it's pretty hard to be an inferior team and win four of seven games.

If you do, it's probably because you deserve it, no matter your status in the regular season. After all, you just won four out of seven (or fewer) games against a good team. It's not a one-and-done fluke. It's more of the real deal.

For the NFL, a study confirms what most of us have known for many, many years.

The best team doesn't always win.

To quantify this, consider an alternate universe in which the NBA adopted the NFL’s format for the regular season and playoffs. Neil Paine of Basketball Reference constructed an approximation of such an NBA season, aligning teams to match as closely as possible the NBA’s 30-team league with the NFL’s 32-team league. With 16 games to go around, there aren’t enough games for every team to play every other one, like in the NFL — so, for instance, the Lakers don’t play the Cleveland Cavaliers in this alternate reality. Then Paine simulated 10,000 such NBA seasons, using teams’ stats through last Tuesday’s games to estimate their strength and therefore their likelihood of winning each game.

In these seasons, the usual suspects tend to finish on top. The Cavs win the “Super Bowl” 19.6% of the time, followed by the Lakers at 19.4% and the Celtics at 12.1%. The Hawks, Nuggets, Spurs, Jazz and Magic all also have at least a 6% chance of winning it all. However, some losing teams win in more than one of these simulated seasons, including the 76ers, the Clippers and the Kings.

Before this NBA season, Paine ran similar simulations, using the actual NBA season structure, and found that the best team has about a 48% chance of winning the title.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again.

Playoffs aren't designed to figure out which team is the best. They're designed for drama, television ratings, and revenue.

The only way for the best team to win the championship every year is to adopt the "everyone plays each other twice" system used by -- among others -- the English Premier League.

It will never happen. Instead, fans in the States have always enjoyed playoff competition, and they're not at all concerned about proving who the absolute best team is. That's why college football gets so much crap from American sports fans, after all.

Lucia Gets Vote of Confidence

Sitting in seventh place, and threatened with the prospect of being on the road for a WCHA playoff series for the second time in three years, the University of Minnesota is facing fan backlash against the hockey program.

This isn't terribly new. Gopher Hockey is a huge entity in Minnesota, and when it isn't going well, fans don't react terribly well. They're used to winning. They're used to being at home in the WCHA playoffs. They're used to a team that pounds the daylights out of Minnesota teams like UMD, St. Cloud State, Minnesota State, and Bemidji State.

This year, they haven't gotten that. Against the four Minnesota schools, the Gophers are just 2-6 this season. With the overall record sitting at just .500 (13-13-2), you can imagine the rumblings about head coach Don Lucia.

He isn't going anywhere.

Athletic director Joel Maturi spoke to our good friend and regular intermission guest Jess Myers, and he gave coach Don Lucia a vote of confidence.

“I can tell you that Don Lucia will be coaching Gopher hockey next year unless he chooses not to,” Maturi told InsideCollegeHockey.com. ... “I think we’ve got to just take a deep breath and stay the course,” Maturi said. “Nobody’s happy that we’re not winning more. I’m concerned and we’re all concerned. But I’m not concerned about the competencies and talents of Don Lucia.”

Listen. You're not going to find excuses for Gopher hockey shortcomings in this space. They're not nearly as good as they should be, and Lucia deserves at least some blame for it.

However, this guy didn't win over 500 games and two national championships in college hockey by being a dummy. To suggest that the game has passed him by at age 51 is just silly. He's still sharp, still well-connected, and still knows how to win games.

He also has a hella talented crop of players coming in next year, led by Blaine's Nick Bjugstad. We've heard about Gopher recruiting classes before, but this one seems like it has a ton of potential. Why the rush to throw out a proven winner?

Oh, yeah. Dean Blais is back coaching college hockey, and it's not at Minnesota. Can't have that.

The Morning After: Thoughts on Brian Burke's Day of Dealing

In retrospect, Sunday wasn't the best day to virtually go into hiding. Instead of just letting the hockey world get by with one easy, news-free day, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke went crazy.

Saddled with a low-rung team in the Eastern Conference, Burke -- who famously stated he "wouldn't watch this again" after Toronto finished 12th in the East last year -- saw enough of mediocrity, and he attacked this team's biggest weakness.

In two moves, Burke performed a bigger shakeup than any we've seen on one day in the NHL in a long time, definitely since the salary cap came into play after the lockout.

Joining him in the "Enough is enough" line was Calgary Flames general manager Darryl Sutter.

Calgary trades defenseman Dion Phaneuf to Toronto in seven-player swap.

It was the first major deal announced Sunday, and it's definitely the biggest. Burke saw enough of his team not being tough enough in their own zone, and he dealt away forwards he wasn't likely to bring back next season, anyway.

Niklas Hagman and Matt Stajan are capable players, but they aren't superstars. It's clear that Burke thinks highly of youngster Tyler Bozak, and he already has his top scoring winger in Phil Kessel.

Impending free agent defenseman Ian White joins Hagman and Stajan in Calgary, as does veteran forward Jamal Mayers, who wanted out anyway, and he played like it Saturday against Vancouver, lazily playing defense on Daniel Sedin while the latter scored the game-winning goal.

While this looks like a good move for both teams, it's more intriguing for Calgary than it is good for Toronto.

The move keeps the Flames positioned as a strong defensive team. As Bob McKenzie notes, White is no slouch, even if he's not necessarily as well-known as Phaneuf. With that said, White is a free agent (restricted) after the season, so it's not a total lock he'll be back.

Stajan and Hagman upgrade the offense, giving them more depth across their lines, something they haven't had much of. It doesn't help them at all that Olli Jokinen hasn't fulfilled his potential there, and they haven't found anyone to center Jarome Iginla the way Mike Cammalleri did last year.

However, is this a move that sets up something potentially (much) bigger?

Last week, McKenzie noted that Calgary was potentially interested in Ilya Kovalchuk, a free-agent-to-be superstar in Atlanta. The Thrashers are trying desperately to re-sign Kovalchuk, but let's not be stupid. This is a long shot.

(Yes, McKenzie mentions Phaneuf in his report, but let's play along for a moment.)

It could be said he belongs somewhere that will take hockey seriously, instead of playing in front of third-full buildings (if that) in Atlanta. Of course, the Thrashers are improving, and they need Kovalchuk to be a part of the effort to make this franchise viable.

Either way, Atlanta has to trade him by March 3 if they can't re-sign him. It's either that or let his negotiating rights go for a draft pick after the Stanley Cup Finals. This is a much more attractive option, because it gives them a chance to pick up some talent in return.

Now, Calgary has some assets they could afford to flip for Kovalchuk, should they choose to be aggressive. The beauty of this is that Sutter can wait through nearly two more weeks of games to see how the new guys come along, and he can play around with numbers and trade possibilities during the two-week Olympic break before he has to make a decision.

Chances are Atlanta would want NHL-level players, a top prospect, and/or a draft pick for Kovalchuk. The draft pick is less valuable because you're dealing Kovalchuk to a contender, so the pick is in the bottom third of the first round.

Instead, Atlanta is better off taking players, even if they're guys like White and Dustin Boyd, who are RFAs after the season. You could envision the Flames flipping Hagman, who has two reasonably-priced years left on his deal, or Stajan, who would be reunited with former Leaf mates Nik Antropov and Pavel Kubina in Atlanta.

You can't replace guys like Kovalchuk, but the Thrashers have to get NHL value for him, as they are still in the thick of the East playoff race. With the break coming, it's unlikely Atlanta will fall off the map before the trade deadline.

Burke gets his big, bruising defenseman who has a big name. Phaneuf upgrades a bad defensive team, and he also brings the kind of edge that Burke loves. One thing that is driving Burke nuts is how easily his team gets pushed around, and he's been trying to change that for a while. The Mike Komisarek signing backfired because of injury, and holdover Jeff Finger hasn't been very good this year.

Short-term, the Leafs win. They make a big splash when Burke needed to shake things up, and he gets a long-term solution in Phaneuf -- who's only 24, by the way -- in exchange for three impending free agents and Hagman.

Oh, and Burke also got the best young player in the deal, because he wrestled prospect defenseman Keith Aulie from the Flames, too.

Sutter's team was short on scoring and depth, and he actually looks like the more desperate guy in the deal, giving up two big young blue-liners for a guys who might not be around past this spring.

Anaheim swaps Jean-Sebastien Giguere for Jason Blake and Vesa Toskala from Toronto.

This is much simpler. Giguere needs to get his mojo back if he is ever going to come close to justifying his huge contract. This move reunites him with Burke and Francois Allaire, Giguere's longtime goaltending coach.

He wasn't going to play much in Anaheim, as the Ducks had just made a four-year, multi-million dollar deal with Jonas Hiller. He is their guy moving forward, and Giguere had to go.

Burke, meanwhile, was tired of watching Toskala look fantastic one night and incompetent the next. Now, youngster Jonas Gustavsson gets a high-quality on-ice mentor in Giguere, and the Leafs get a guy who is actually capable of being a No. 1 goaltender. This is a no-lose for both sides.

Blake wasn't exactly lighting it up in Toronto, with ten goals and 26 points in 56 games. Now he gets a change of scenery, and he joins a forward group in Anaheim that includes tough veterans like Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne.

The Ducks get future cap flexibility, and they rid themselves of a $7 million backup goalie. Good deal for them. Having to take on Toskala's salary is a small price for shipping Giguere north.

It was a big Sunday for the Maple Leafs, who might be in last place in the Eastern Conference, but they're still not dead, and now they get a chance to prove that.

One thing is certain: If they continue to play like they've been, Burke will find more deals to make before the March 3 deadline. He's not really good at "standing pat" or "being patient."