The Ciskie Blog: August 2008

Friday, August 29, 2008

SO MUCH FOR THAT FLORIDA TRIP

Original schedule here.

They could have canceled that trip to Alaska, or the one to Denver. No offense to either place, but Florida is much nicer.

So they cancel the Florida trip, replacing it with a trip to Chicago. In January.

The University of Notre Dame will play host to the first ever Shillelagh Tournament at the Sears Centre in Hoffman Estates, Ill. on Jan. 2 and 3, 2009. The tournament, originally scheduled as the Lightning College Hockey Classic in Tampa, Fla., will feature the University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs, the Union College Dutchmen and the University of Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks.

The tournament that was hosted by the National Hockey League's Tampa Bay Lightning the past two years moves from the Florida city due to the change in ownership of the Lightning who decided not to sponsor the tournament. Notre Dame will now serve as the hosts for the new tournament at the Sears Centre.

"We had commitments from three teams that expected to play in this tournament and it was important for us to fulfill that obligation," said Irish hockey coach Jeff Jackson.

"We were very fortunate that the people from the Sears Centre opened their doors for us to maintain this tournament. The Chicago area is a second home to Notre Dame and hopefully this can help develop into a relationship that will allow us to play games in Chicago on an annual basis."

Jackson added, "I am extremely disappointed in the Tampa Bay Lighting's decision to not continue the tournament. We had a verbal agreement to continue this for two more years and as hosts of the Frozen Four in 2012, I'm not sure it's the best message to send to the college hockey community by cancelling the tournament at such a late date."

You're not the only one disappointed, Coach Jackson.

Then again, "disappointed" doesn't really describe how I feel. On the bright side, I'll have some extra room in my bag, because I don't think I'll need my swim trunks or sandles to go to Chicago. The shores of Lake Michigan aren't quite as nice as the shores of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2008: WEEK ONE!

Oh, it's a wonderful thing.

One thing I'd like to do this year is break down where you'll see games if you have satellite television. Obviously, everyone's local cable might be different, but if you have DirecTV, you'll get channel numbers of games I'm picking in parentheses. Note that this will be for national games only. Games on ABC or FSN will be listed as such, as channel numbers for ABC vary, as do the FSNs that carry the national games (i.e. Wake Forest at Baylor Thursday night, which isn't on FSN North because of Twins baseball).

I don't remember how I did last year, and I'm too lazy to look it up, so we'll just go ahead and start with the 0-0 slate, just like every team.

(Well, Nebraska may be an exception, since Bo Pelini will probably get fired after his team's first loss. In the minds of many Nebraska fans, they're 0-3 without playing a game.)

Thursday night
UTEP at Buffalo --> The Bulls made great strides last year, but they start a new season with a doozy. The Miners disappointed greatly in 2007, and Mike Price is determined to get them back to the postseason. I like the talent UTEP has, and I think they'll find a way to eek out a road win in what should be a tough environment.
The pick: UTEP

North Carolina State at South Carolina (ESPN, channel 206)--> Steve Spurrier doesn't know what he has with this Carolina outfit. They look like they're a quarterback away from being a real threat, but no one - not even the Ol' Ball Coach - knows if they have that quarterback. NC State thinks they have a gem in redshirt freshman Russell Wilson, who beat out senior Daniel Evans for the job. Throwing him out in front of 80,000 fans for a night game doesn't seem that smart to me.
The pick: South Carolina

Wake Forest at Baylor (FSN regionals, check listings)--> Wake is legitimately ranked in most polls, mainly because of experienced quarterback Riley Skinner and wily coach Jim Grobe. Baylor has the wide-open spread attack thanks to new coach Art Briles. I think Briles will do fine there, but there's no way that the Bears' defense can slow down the Demon Deacons in this game. They just don't have the horses.
The pick: Wake Forest

Saturday
USC at Virginia (ABC/ESPN2 reverse mirror)--> Frankly, Al Groh's bunch doesn't have a shot here. USC may have lost a ton of offensive talent, but Virginia lost a ton of talent. Without Chris Long anchoring that defense, even an inexperienced USC line is going to push them around. The Trojans have a multi-pronged running attack, and it should be enough to assure that new signal-caller Mark Sanchez is comfortable in the pocket before he has to do anything important.
The pick: USC

Utah at Michigan (ABC/ESPN2 reverse mirror)--> I'm worried for Michigan. New offensive starters all over the field, a new coach bringing new systems, and an opponent loaded with talent and experience. No matter who RichRod goes with at quarterback, Brian Johnson of Utah is the best one on the field. He's finally healthy, and Utah is primed for an upset. I have a hard time pulling the trigger, because Michigan will be hell-bent on avoiding what happened last year. But I still think Utah is the better team right now. In November, I don't know that I'll be able to say that.
The pick: Michigan

Appalachian State at LSU (ESPN, 206)--> App State still has Armanti Edwards, the best player in Division I-AA, and they still have a ton of skill players who are out to prove they were overlooked by the big schools. Such motivation is tough to measure if applied properly, and it clearly is in Boone. However, the "sneak-up" factor is up, out, and gone. There's no chance LSU overlooks this game. The first-ever matchup of defending college football national champions will likely fizzle into a blowout by the third quarter. But it was fun while it lasted.
The pick: LSU

Alabama vs Clemson at Atlanta (ABC, regional)--> Great opening weekend matchup, but there really is only one question heading into this one. It surrounds the Tigers, because if Clemson plays to their potential, they're the best team in the ACC and a two-touchdown winner in this game. However, they have a tendency to come up short in bigger games, and as much as we may all dislike Nick Saban, it's hard to deny he's one of the best. I'll take Clemson, but I envision a game that is closer than it should be.
The pick: Clemson

Michigan State at California (ABC, regional)--> Cal's decision to go with Kevin Riley over incumbent starter Nate Longshore is an interesting one. Perhaps Riley is just a better fit with the other new starters along the offense. No matter what, the Bears should be able to run the ball at will against Sparty's porous defense. Even though I expect Javon Ringer to do the same ot Cal, Michigan State doesn't have enough on either side of the ball to win.
The pick: California

Illinois vs Missouri at St. Louis (ESPN, 206)--> This was one of the best openers last year, as Illinois fought back from a huge deficit and should have won. They did it largely without starting quarterback Juice Williams, who was injured early. Williams has Regus Benn to throw to, and there are highly-rated players all over the defense. Missouri still has Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin, and they are one of the serious threats to sneak into the BCS.
The pick: Missouri

OTHER GAMES (home team in CAPS - all games Saturday unless noted)
Oregon State over STANFORD (Thursday) (ESPN2, 209)
Virginia Tech over EAST CAROLINA (ESPN, 206)
INDIANA over Western Kentucky (Big Ten Network, 611)
NORTHWESTERN over Syracuse (ESPN2, 209)
WISCONSIN over Akron (BTN, 623)
OHIO STATE over Youngstown State (BTN, 610)
PENN STATE over Coastal Carolina (BTN, 617)
IOWA over Maine (BTN, 608)
Tcu over NEW MEXICO (Versus, 604 HD, 603 SD)
MINNESOTA over Northern Illinois (BTN, 610)
OREGON over Washington (FSN regionals, check listings)
COLORADO over Colorado State (Sunday) (FSN regionals, check listings)
Fresno State over RUTGERS (Monday) (ESPN, 206)
UCLA over Tennessee (Monday) (ESPN, 206)

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW WRAP-UP

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Illinois
4. Penn State
5. Michigan
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan State
8. Purdue
9. Iowa
10. Minnesota
11. Indiana

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State
Defensive Player of the Year: James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State
Coach of the Year: Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Coach on the Hot Seat: Kirk Ferentz, Iowa
Best Non-Conference Game: Ohio State at USC, September 13
Worst Non-Conference Game: Northern Colorado at Purdue, September 6

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 1. OHIO STATE

Virtually everything. The Buckeyes have a smart, accurate quarterback in Todd Boeckman. They have one of the best backs in the country in Chris "Beanie" Wells, a legitimate H*i*m*n threat on a team that is too loaded to really need one. They have Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie back at receiver. Ohio State also boasts two of the land's best linebackers in James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman. If that's not enough, two-time first-team All-Big Ten corner Malcolm Jenkins is back along with the entire secondary. There's a lot of motivation for redemption, considering tOSU has lost the last two national title games by a combined 79-38. As much as you and I can't stand Jim Tressel's smarminess, there's no doubt he can coach, and the Buckeyes' systems are a great fit for the talent on hand.

Needs work
You mean I have to pick something? An offensive line that was super in pass protection throughout the season allowed five sacks against LSU. Since Boeckman is something close to the polar opposite of "fleet of foot", the line has to do quite a good job of protecting him. Yes, many of tOSU's pass plays call for quick drops and quick, decisive throws, but when you have a virtually immobile quarterback, you have to protect him well. Then again, when you have Terrelle Pryor on the bench, maybe you don't worry about such things. As for other potential flaws on this team, the speed on defense is still not good enough for a national title, and the lost shoes of Vernon Gholston will be extremely difficult to fill.

Final thoughts

I'd love to pick on tOSU for losing the last two title games by a wide margin, but the bottom line is that they've blown through the Big Ten the last two seasons with a combined record of 15-1. Their only loss was Boeckman's worst game of 2007. Outside of the game at USC September 13, there isn't a loss on this schedule. An 8-0 Big Ten run is at least a 50/50 proposition. If that happens, it's possible that the Buckeyes could absorb a loss to USC and still be in the title game in January.

Tressel could be on the verge of fielding his best team after seeing his team play for three national championships in six years. It's beyond scary to think of what this team can accomplish in 2008.

Monday, August 18, 2008

BLOGPOLL 2008 - PRESEASON

It's that time of the year again.

Yes, the BlogPoll is still functional, and I'm still (somehow) invited to vote.

Here is my preseason ballot. Please offer some thoughts, as I'm not at all committed to much of any of this.

Rank	Team
1	Georgia
2	Southern Cal
3	Florida
4	Oklahoma
5	Ohio State
6	Auburn
7	Missouri
8	LSU
9	Clemson
10	Oregon
11	Texas Tech
12	South Florida
13	Virginia Tech
14	West Virginia
15	Kansas
16	Alabama
17	California
18	Wisconsin
19	Fresno State
20	Texas
21	Illinois
22	Wake Forest
23	Brigham Young
24	Penn State
25	Arizona State

Dropped Out:

Sunday, August 17, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 2. WISCONSIN

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 3. ILLINOIS

Cornerback. Seriously, Illinois could be the best in the conference at this position. All-America candidate Vontae Davis (brother of 49er Vernon) is rock-solid in every way. He's fast enough to stick with speedy receivers. He's got smooth body movement so he can change direction with little effort. He's also very physical and willing to play a part in run support. Fewer and fewer teams will throw his way, so that puts some pressure on the very capable Dere Hicks to keep a high level of play. I wouldn't be surprised if Hicks had more interceptions and pass breakups this year, even though Davis is obviously a better player. Depth is young, but very talented, as sophomore Miami Thomas is joined by freshman Patrick Nixon in competing for playing time.

Needs work
Running back. It's bad enough that Rashad Mendenhall - a very special player - turned pro early and badmouthed Ron Zook on the way out the door. But brother Walter, expected to take over the top spot, also moved on. He decided to transfer. It leaves Illinois with the always-dreaded running-back-by-committee. Daniel Dufrene leads the charge, but he's not nearly close to Mendenhall's level right now. Redshirt freshman Troy Pollard should get some playing time, too. Either way, the heat is on junior QB Juice Williams, who made strides as a passer last year but has a long way to go. Yes, this spread offense is predicated on running the ball, but Williams can't get by hitting less than 60 percent of his passes. He also needs to cut down on his interceptions (12 last year). At this point, he's obviously a better option than Eddie McGee, who filled in for Williams a couple times last year.

Final thoughts
Zook earned everything he got last year. He took a lot of heat at Florida, despite capable recruiting that set up Urban Meyer for the success he's had. Now, he's rebuilt Illinois into a credible Big Ten program by recruiting his tail off and letting his athletes perform. This year is a big test for the Illini, as they try to prove themselves as a legitimate, consistent team.

Williams has to throw better, the running game has to come together, and the defense must keep performing after losing the likes of J Leman and Antonio Steele. Starting off with Missouri won't be easy, but a great comeback effort against the Tigers last year is what really helped set Illinois up for a super season. If they're to smell the roses again January 1, they'll need to avoid losing both of their first two Big Ten games (Penn State and Michigan, both on the road). A split there sets them up for another nine-win season, or better.

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 4. PENN STATE

Wide receiver. Sounds weird to associate strength at that particular position with Penn State, but it's true. The Nittany Lions field three strong seniors on the perimeter of their offense. Deon Butler (right) is more of a playmaker, averaging over 13.5 yards per catch last year. Derrick Williams is the possession receiver, having led the team with 55 catches a year ago. Menawhile, Jordan Norwood is a smaller receiver in the mold of Butler. He led the team last year with five receiving touchdowns. This offense is helped appreciably by the departure of eminently overrated QB Anthony Morelli, who managed to hit just 58 percent of his throws to this superb group a year ago. Expect the battle between Darryl Clark and Pat Devlin to play out for the rest of fall camp before Joe Paterno and his staff decide on a starter.

Needs work
Offensive backfield. First off, you have the aforementioned battle between Clark and Devlin. The job of throwing to Butler, Williams, and Norwood is an important one, especially when you consider that leading rusher Rodney Kinlaw is gone. Sophomore Evan Royster should have the first crack at that job. Royster averaged an impressive six yards per carry in limited work a year ago. I crack at Morelli, but the bottom line is that the inexperience at quarterback will make the running game much more important. Royster has a potentially great line to run behind, but he has to prove he can handle the rigors of being the alpha dog in the backfield.

Final thoughts
Penn State lost conference games to Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State last year. Have they improved enough defensively (lost leading tacklers Dan Connor and Sean Lee) to close the gap with new starters at the two most important positions on offense? I'm not sure.

Also worth noting is the potential distraction surrounding Paterno. Whether you're talking about his future or his perceived inability (or, worse, unwillingness) to control his players, it's an issue. If any players get in trouble during the season, or if the Nittany Lions struggle, the microscope will be on the venerable coach.

In the end, road trips to Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, and Iowa in Big Ten play will be too much to come out of unscathed. I see a big season for Penn State, as nine or ten wins look likely. But that won't be enough to get close to the top of the Big Ten. There are too many potential landmines on that league slate (they play everyone but Northwestern and Minnesota).

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 5. MICHIGAN

Defensive line. The Wolverines weren't awful up front last year, but they were cover-your-eyes bad at various points of the season. For example, in allowing 491 rushing yards over those disastrous first two losses. Oh, and there's the 661 yards rushing they allowed over the last three games (two losses). But new coordinator Scott Shafer has some talent to work with. Senior tackles Terrance Taylor and Will Johnson bring a ton of experience and a combined 604 pounds to the middle of the defense. Then you have ends Brandon Graham and Tim Jamison (in the photograph). Jamison is a beast who comes to camp in the best shape of his Michigan career. Graham is no slouch, having led the Wolverines with 8.5 sacks last year. Expect a great improvement in this area, and there had better be one, because Michigan can't afford a dropoff at their most experienced - and arguably most talented - position.

Needs work
Offense. This isn't because of a talent deficiency. In fact, Michigan has quite the opposite. Guys like RB Carlos Brown, WR Greg Mathews, TE Carson Butler, and OLs Tim McAvoy, Cory Zirbel, and Stephen Schilling were all highly-recruited athletes, and guys like Schilling and Butler have plenty of experience in the Big Ten wars. However, this unit is extremely short on skill-position experience, and new coach Rich Rodriguez is overhauling the offense. Expect Michigan to field a freshman starter at QB, and only Mathews, Butler, and Schilling will start this year after being regulars a year ago. Rodriguez should have no trouble getting his spread offense implemented because of the number of new faces, but how long will it take them to get accustomed to this high a level of football?

Final thoughts

It's all about your faith in RichRod. You could believe that this offense will struggle to score points, and the schedule to open the Big Ten season - Wisconsin and Illinois both visit the Big House - will be too tough to overcome. Or you might think Rodriguez will do well getting this offense in place because he doesn't have to cater to very many veteran players on that side of the ball. Michigan's defense struggled mightily against spread-type attacks early a year ago, as both Appalachian State and Oregon used the spread to gain a combined 1,000-plus yards over the first two games.

I tend to think the most likely finish is somewhere around the middle of the pack. I can see Michigan finishing as high as third and as low as seventh or maybe eighth. I'll pick them fifth, because I do think the Wolverines will have some problems with the new system at first. Even with new starters almost all the way across the board, this new offense represents culture shock in this program compared to what they've run in the past.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 6. NORTHWESTERN

Passing offense. C.J. Bacher doesn't get much recognition, but he improved in a lot of areas last year. He got his completion percentage to 61, which is ever-so-important in the spread offense. Bacher averaged over 300 yards per game and simply needs to do a better job taking care of the ball. A 19-19 touchdown-interception ratio will not cut it again this year. Bacher leads an experienced group that boasts three senior receivers, Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, and Rasheed Ward. Expect to see Bacher take better care of the ball this year for a variety of reasons. For starters, he's more experienced, and he has another year to work with this group of receivers. It will also help him if Tyrell Sutton can stay healthy and run like he did in his freshman year. The running game was absent for much of the 2007 season thanks to Sutton's injuries. Northwestern didn't average even four yards per rush in any of their last four games, putting a lot of pressure on Bacher to do it all himself.

Needs work

Pass defense. You'd think working against Bacher and friends every day in practice would help them. It apparently doesn't. The Wildcats didn't generate any pass rush, as one-third of their sacks (six) came in a loss to Iowa. Take out that game, and Northwestern had all of six sacks in seven league games. Because of that, the secondary was torched often, allowing nearly 250 yards per game through the air, along with a staggering completion percentage of nearly 63. To turn that around, guys like ends Corey Wootton and Kevin Mims have to get up the field, and a retooled secondary, led by FS Brad Phillips, has to do a better job in coverage. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald saw the issues on defense, and he hired Mike Hankwitz as the new coordinator. Hankwitz struggled with a talented unit at Wisconsin last year, but he is a capable coach who is going to be out for redemption.

Final thoughts
Fitzgerald has done a good job keeping the ship above water in the two years since the sudden passing of Randy Walker. This is his payoff. Northwestern has the quarterback, the skill-position talent around him, the experience, and the motivation on defense to improve. Yes, they have to play Ohio State, but the Wildcats avoid Wisconsin and Penn State on the Big Ten slate. The toughest non-conference game is at Duke.

In all seriousness, there's no reason for Northwestern to miss the postseason this year. The schedule and the team are in good position to win seven or maybe even eight games if all goes well.

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 7. MICHIGAN STATE

Offensive backfield. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio had a heckuva first year at the helm, thanks in large part to the work of his offensive backfield. QB Brian Hoyer emerged as a very good player who ran his offense efficiently. However, four of his 11 picks were thrown in the Champs Sports Bowl loss. It's a performance Hoyer is more than capable of rebounding from, even without favorite target Devin Thomas. In the backfield, Jehuu Caulcrick has moved on, but Javon Ringer returns, fresh off a 1,447-yard performance. Caulcrick scored all the touchdowns (21), but Ringer is a very dangerous player if he's healthy (a problem in the past). As long as Dantonio can find a short-yardage back to take pressure off Ringer, the offense should continue to click. I'm not sure it can average 33 points per game again, but it also shouldn't have to score that much.

Needs work
Pass defense. Yikes. Talk about Jekyll and Hyde. The Spartans held three opponents under 100 yards passing (Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and Iowa - though the Hawkeyes managed to win, anyway). However, Michigan State gave up large chunks of yardage just too often to be effective on defense. They allowed nearly 300 pass yards to Bowling Green. Wisconsin threw for nearly 250 against them, which is saying something because Wisconsin didn't throw all that well a year ago. Northwestern topped 500 yards and beat MSU in overtime. Purdue nearly hit 350 yards, and Boston College got to 250. The overall numbers (58 percent completions, 220 yard average, 40 sacks) aren't terrible, but consistency will be an issue again. This isn't all on the secondary, either. The Spartans didn't get enough pass rush in Big Ten play, posting just 16 sacks in eight league games. That has to improve, because while the Big Ten isn't exactly loaded with great quarterbacks, there's enough talent and experience to burn a team that doesn't get great coverage and doesn't generate enough pass rush.

Final thoughts
I like Hoyer's leadership, and I think this offense is going to be generally very good. They run well, and Hoyer throws well. The key to this team will be the defense. Starting LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon return, as do CBs Kendell Davis-Clark and Chris Rucker. There are a lot of "ifs" on defense as they search for consistency, especially up front, where MSU has three new defensive line starters.

The schedule doesn't offer much bend, as Sparty opens at California. The Golden Bears figure to be vastly improved after a disastrous finish to their 2007 season. They also get to meet a dangerous Florida Atlantic team, and you know Notre Dame will be better this year. Dantonio did a great job to get MSU to a bowl game in his first season, but finding a way to sneak them into a second straight one might be a more impressive feat.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 8. PURDUE

Defensive front. I like what Purdue brings to the table in the front seven. Yes, they lost their sack leaders from a team that generated practically nothing for pass rush all season. However, junior end Keyon Brown played well in the bowl game, tackles Ryan Baker and Alex Magee hold up well, and senior LB Anthony Heygood is set for a breakout season. The Boilermakers should be inspired to play well this year, knowing it's the last for head coach Joe Tiller. The 12th year boss is stepping aside after this season, and former Eastern Kentucky coach Danny Hope has already been tabbed as his successor. Hope will coach an offensive line that should also be very good this year, as both starting tackles return. Senior LT Sean Sester is a solid candidate for All-Big Ten honors when the season ends.

Needs work

Passing game. Yes, Curtis Painter is a solid quarterback. He's improved his accuracy, cut down on his interceptions, and did throw for nearly 3,900 yards last year. However, there are issues. Painter is still inconsistent with his accuracy. He's the exact opposite of mobile. Oh, and there's the fact that four of his top five receivers from last year are gone. Dorien Bryant and Dustin Keller were the big targets, as they take 155 catches and 15 touchdowns with them. Will Painter revert back to his mistake-prone mode without familiar targets to throw to? Can Purdue establish a solid balance to their offense, or will he have to do it all himself?

Final thoughts
Tiller's won 83 games at Purdue, and while he won't stick around long enough to hit 100, he could conceivably hit 90 this year if things go well. Painter needs to continue to improve, new receivers have to fill some huge holes on the perimeter of this offense, and Kory Sheets has to combine with Jaycen Taylor to be a threat on the ground more often. If these things happen, Purdue will easily hit last year's average of 34 points per game, and it will be up to a defense missing five key players from last year to build on that. Worth noting is that Purdue scored just short of 19 points per game in their five losses, two touchdowns below the season average. It's a small sample, but it shows that Painter will probably continue to struggle against good defenses.

Because of that, Purdue's defense has to step up. They have tools like Heygood and Magee, but there is still work to be done in the secondary. As good as Purdue has been over the years in the spread offense, they really have a hard time defending it (see: "Lefevour, Dan"). Purdue will probably be in line for a fringe bowl once again, but they could rise up the standings if everything comes together for them.

Saturday, August 09, 2008

INTERESTING DIGITS ON BOMBS

Maybe you heard. Brett Favre got traded to the Jets.

Lots of stuff on FanHouse, some of it penned by your humble correspondent. Some of it penned by other, much more intelligent people.

Anyway, Tim Graham blogs for ESPN.com on the NFL, and he unearthed some superb numbers on Favre, his predecessor in New York (Chad Pennington), and their ability to throw the deep ball.

Pennington didn't go deep as often, but he was much more effective when he did. His amazing passer rating of 107.7 dwarfed Favre's 66.9.

The main reasons for the disparity were Favre's interceptions and Pennington's judiciousness. Only 3.7 percent of Pennington's passes got picked off. Favre's daredevil antics helped inflate his interception rate to 12.1 percent.

Favre threw more than twice as many touchdown passes of 20 yards or more. But Pennington, the infamous soft-tosser, had a higher completion percentage and yards-per-attempt average.

Now, it's worth noting that Favre and Pennington have indeed used the deep ball differently. I swear there were times that Favre used it as a punt.

(And with how some of the Packers' punters have been over the years, I think Favre is better off taking care of it himself.)

It's also worth noting that Pennington threw a lot fewer deep balls, in part because his offense didn't call for them, and in part because it's hard to throw the deep ball when you're laying flat on your back.

Hopefully, the free-agent signings by the Jets work out, because the alternative is Favre spending a lot of time scrambling and/or laying flat on his back.

Friday, August 08, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 9. IOWA

Defensive line. Yes, Kenny Iwebema is gone, but Iowa returns a pair of hard-charging tackles. Mitch King led the team with 14.5 tackles for loss a year ago, and Matt Kroul led all linemen with 74 tackles. King fits the Iowa mentality perfectly, as he's an 264-pound defensive tackle who plays like he's at least 295. He has a non-stop motor and a great nose for the football, which reminds you of former Iowa linemen like Aaron Kampman and Jared DeVries who have succeeded in the NFL. The Hawkeyes also have the potential to field some playmakers at the ends, especially sophomore Adrian Clayborn. The ends will benefit from a lot of one-on-one blocking as opponents look to neutralize King and Kroul in the middle.

Needs work

Passing game. I do think junior Jake Christensen is going to be a fine QB. He only threw six picks in 370 pass attempts a year ago, despite a dreadfully bad and awfully banged-up group of receivers. His best WR, Darrell Johnson-Koulianos, returns after a 38-catch freshman season. The bad news is that he scored just two times and those 38 catches led the team. Iowa wins with tough defense and a solid ball-control offense, and they don't have to give in to the pass-first tendencies of many college offenses these days. However, they do need to average better than 190 passing yards per game if they hope to avoid another season below a 20 PPG average. Worse, the running game is also a huge question mark thanks to the departures of leading rushers Albert Young and Damian Sims.

Final thoughts
Despite returning eight starters, there isn't much to like about the Iowa offense. The Hawkeyes didn't run the ball effectively, and Christensen - while staying mainly turnover-free - just didn't light up any opposing defenses. His best performance was a 299-yard game against Northwestern. His season-high was 308 in a game Iowa lost by 18 points (Indiana). He'll help himself by completing more than 53 percent of his throws, but he'll also help himself by developing a serious rapport with Johnson-Koulianos. He should be helped by a line that returns five starters and can't possibly give up 46 sacks again (31 of those came in Iowa's six losses). Unless coach Kirk Ferentz can mold the line and develop the skill positions, Iowa is doomed for another poor season. A soft non-conference schedule (outside of a trip to Pittsburgh) probably assures a six-win season, and if they can pull off an upset in Big Ten play, they have a good shot at making a bowl game.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 10. MINNESOTA

Quarterback. I really like Adam Weber. He worked behind a pretty good offensive line, yes, but for a redshirt freshman QB to start every game on a terrible team and only get sacked 13 times says something. Weber took good care of himself, and he used his mobility well. The problem for Weber was his high number of interceptions (19), which is totally correctable with experience and coaching. Not only did Weber chuck 24 touchdowns and throw for nearly 2,900 yards, but he also led the team with over 600 rushing yards. 3,500 total yards for a freshman in the Big Ten? Yeah, he's good. He's also lucky, because he gets to throw to unheralded receiver Eric Decker, who caught 67 balls last year and will get more this year now that Ernie Wheelwright has moved on.

Needs work
Defense. The Gophers were flat-out embarrassing on defense a year ago, allowing nearly 230 rush yards and over 500 total yards per game. The 37 points per game allowed represented a double-digit increase from 2006. Coach Tim Brewster welcomes a new defensive coordinator in former Duke head coach Ted Roof. The hope is that he'll find a way to clean things up, with help from a handful of JUCOs Brewster brought in. The Gophers lose three of their top four tacklers, including S Dominique Barber and two LBs (John Shevlin and Mike Sherels). Brewster is trying to inject some speed into his linebackers, but will the speed be enough to overcome a lack of starting experience at the position?

Final thoughts

The hole Brewster (right) dug in his first season is massive, but he has help. Weber is a very good talent, as is Decker. Finding a running game is key there, because Weber can't afford to take the pounding that comes along with continuing to be his team's leading rusher. Roof has a huge project with the defense, but Brewster did bring in a tremendous recruiting class and he has tremendous hopes for the unit.

The schedule isn't very forgiving (the Gophers miss out on Penn State and Michigan State, but get to play Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin all on the road. Yippee!), but it's likely Minnesota will find a way to win a league game or two this time around. Overall, something around four or five wins would constitute improvement, though it might not be enough to keep the vultures from circling. Minnesota moves into a new on-campus football stadium in 2009, and can ill afford for Brewster's big-talk act to keep producing losing seasons. After all, if they wanted the football program to suck, they would have kept Glen Mason around.

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 11. INDIANA

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

INDIANA HOOSIERS
Last year: 7-6 overall, 3-5 Big Ten (T-7th)
Postseason: Lost to Oklahoma State, 49-33, in Insight Bowl

The Hoosiers were inspired last year. After the offseason passing of head coach Terry Hoeppner, IU rallied to play for a shot at a 13th game. That 13th game, a bowl, was a stated goal of Hoeppner when he took over a program in arrears in 2005. While he didn't live long enough to see the goal through, interim coach Bill Lynch admirably carried out the mission.

While Indiana returns some talented players from last year's team, the task they are facing is a great one. They have to follow up an emotionally draining season with something that remotely resembles progress.

In good shape

The offensive backfield should be strong this season. QB Kellen Lewis (right) returns from a suspension in the spring. Assuming the lack of work in the spring doesn't somehow affect him, Lewis should be able to build off what he did a year ago. Lewis hit 60 percent of his passes and also led the team with 736 rushing yards. He accounted for 37 total touchdowns. So, yeah, he's a pretty good player. However, he stumbled badly against Wisconsin (the 33-3 loss was IU's worst of the season) and struggled with his accuracy a lot down the stretch. It would help him greatly if RB Marcus Thigpen started to live up to his potential. He ran pretty well for most of the season, but it's telling that he was held out of the end zone, something that should never happen to a player of his ability.

Needs work

Defense. The Hoosiers were flat-out abused in the Insight Bowl, as Oklahoma State racked up 49 points and over 500 yards of offense. Leading sack man Greg Middleton (pictured) returns to anchor the defensive line. He was first-team All-Big Ten last year with 16 sacks. There is a problem, though. The Hoosiers have to replace a bunch of talent lost elsewhere. Most notably, MLB Adam McClung and CB Tracy Porter both moved on, and the Hoosiers lack depth at both positions. There was a lot of work that needed to be done to begin with, but Indiana is going to find it tough to recover from the high-end losses they suffered on what wasn't a terribly good defense to begin with.

Final thoughts
It's possible that no team in the Big Ten will miss its top playmakers like Indiana will miss Porter, McClung, and WR James Hardy (75 catches, 16 TDs). It's possible to re-energize a program in the short-term by teaching players more effectively, but the kind of bad recruiting we saw at Indiana for a lot of years isn't just going to be forgotten about. Depth is important for any program, and Indiana will feel that lack of depth this season. I hate to predict a last-place finish after all they did last year, but the Hoosiers just don't have enough going for them this year.

I'm looking at a season where the Hoosiers are lucky to win more than two Big Ten games and five games overall.

Monday, August 04, 2008

HE'S BAAAAACK

Unfortunately, this is very real. We'll know more tonight, but it appears that we have a Hall of Famer back on the Packers.

I have no issues with the man changing his mind. I have major issues with the man turning a very important training camp into one of these...

Ack. Good luck, Aaron. You got one Packer fan in your corner.

Of course, I'm human. In the end, I want this team to win. That's the bottom line. If the coaching staff eventually determines Favre is the guy to do that, then count me in.

However, I want the coaching staff to determine that. Not some empty-headed suit at ESPN (I'm looking at you, "everyone at ESPN").

(ESPN should be ashamed of themselves. Two years ago, many of these same people were chastising Favre for holding the Packers hostage when he was washed up and should have retired. Flip-flopping is bad. Just ask John McCain. He'll tell you all about it.)