RANDOMIZATION: 09/17/07

Someone help Charlie Weis. Poor guy is probably beside himself right about now. Well, "poor" is a bit of a misnomer, $30 million contract and all. But you know what I mean.

Listen, I'm the last guy who is going to drum up sympathy for Notre Dame. They have their own lucrative television contract, they can schedule anyone they want, and they have a tremendous recruiting edge because of the aforementioned television contract.

("Listen, kid. You can come to South Bend, where every one of your games will be televised nationally. The majority of them are on over-the-air TV. NBC has our home games, and our road games always get lots of attention because Notre Dame equals ratings. Or, you can go to Purdue, where any games not picked up by ESPN end up on ESPN 360 or the Big Ten Network, which have a combined reach of about 37.")

However, it's hard to say anything good about Weis' coaching this year. While teams like Ohio State are making plenty of noise with inexperienced starters, the Irish just look lost. Jimmy Clausen is going to be a pretty good college quarterback, but that's not going to happen as long as the running game, offensive line, and wide receivers all stink.

I know Weis isn't going anywhere, because he's signed long-term, and he's allegedly the savior of the program and all. It's just worth noting that this team is 0-3, awful, and still facing the toughest portion of their schedule.

Not even the green jerseys can save them now.

More on the Patriots. It wasn't really much of a shock that the bulk of NFL pregame programming Sunday was focused on the issue last week involving the Patriots. There are clear issues facing the league right now, and after seeing commissioner Roger Goodell on NBC last night, I am convinced that this guy is ready to face those issues.

(By the way, the Patriots kicked the living crap out of San Diego. That's what we all get for making them mad. Of course, the fact that they're a really good football team had nothing to do with their success.)

While Goodell tried to evade some of Bob Costas' questioning, he gave us some very important information regarding the case. Goodell confirmed that he expects the Patriots to turn over all files and tapes and such related to the case, and he said he's prepared to up their punishment if they don't. When Costas reacted skeptically to the order, Goodell reiterated that he expects New England to comply.

As an outsider, his response struck me as the equivalent to a parent saying "Because I said so". Goodell sees himself as the league's main authority figure, and he's absolutely unafraid of flexing his muscles. Not only will he flex, but he expects that his orders will be followed to the letter. The bottom line is that Goodell expects the threat of further punishment to be enough to make New England compliant. We can question the wisdom of that, but I have no reason to believe that Goodell will stand for being disobeyed.

Also, Goodell confirmed to Costas that he indeed has reserved the right to add to the punishment if he sees fit. This is a perfect response. No beating around the bush. He just laid it out there. Clearly, Patriots fans aren't going to be happy with the possibility that this story isn't done yet. But Goodell came across as determined to complete a thorough investigation into this issue.

I salute that, even if I'm still a bit skeptical that he'll uncover everything he's searching for.

Here it is, BlogPollers. I'm throwing out a challenge. It's for all of you who voted for USC as the top team in early polls, then picked someone else for #1 last week as punishment to USC for daring to have a bye week. Oh, how dare they!

Anyway, who's your choice this week? Oklahoma showed nothing because they played the fourth-best team in Utah (you've seen nothing until you've seen that Southern Utah juggernaut in action). LSU showed nothing except that they have a better defense than Louisville, but I think we all knew that.

USC, meanwhile, stomped all over Nebraska in Lincoln. Handed the Huskers their worst home loss since 2003, but this may have been worse. There are expectations with this team. Not only that, but this one happened in prime-time on national television, with tons of buildup.

In terms of USC's program, it's one of the more impressive wins they've had. Undoubtedly, beating a contender to a pulp on the road is more impressive than beating a contender to a pulp at home.

(I have no answers on this. I voted for USC at #1 last week, and I'm keeping them there this week. Ballot tomorrow or later today or whatever.)

The Packers are 2-0. It hasn't happened since 2001, so let me rejoice a tad. The Pack beat up the suddenly hapless Giants 35-13 Sunday, and they did it with that washed-up oldhead Favre throwing for three scores and hitting his first 14 passes of the second half. Man, I wish that guy hadn't lost it so decisively.

The Packers host an angry San Diego team Sunday, but it's not a lost cause. The Chargers have struggled to run the ball in the first two weeks, and outside of TE Antonio Gates, they don't pose a great threat in the passing game. That defense, however, is potentially the toughest the Pack will face this year (outside of perhaps the Bears). The Chargers have the personnel to cause Favre a lot of problems, and the Packers will get him broken in half if they're not careful.

That said, this is a time to enjoy the start. It's a good one.

PATRIOTGATE? WHAT A STUPID NAME

I know "Belichickgate" doesn't roll off the tongue, and "Videogate" isn't specific enough, but "Patriotgate"?

And does every "scandal" have to have "-gate" on the end of it? I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that the break-in happened in Washington instead of here, because that would be just awkward to explain to the kids.

Anyway, the name might be stupid, but the story was quite interesting. If you didn't hear, and I'm not sure how you could have pulled that off (after all, I was in Green Bay, and I heard even when I wasn't trying), the New England Patriots apparently employed some intern or whatever to videotape the Jets' sideline coaches sending hand signals out onto the field.

The Jets' security team, clearly made aware of this tactic having been used in the past, caught the offending employee, confiscated the camera, and sent it to the league office. The league found enough evidence in that camera to fine the Patriots organization $250,000, take away their first-round pick in next year's draft (second- and third-rounders should a miracle happen and the Patriots miss the playoffs), and the league also slapped the maximum $500,000 fine on head coach Bill Belichick.

Since then, the media has predictably had a field day with this story, and more stories of its ilk have come out. Other teams had experienced strange happenings while playing the Patriots, and none of them thought enough of what happened to inform the league about it. Matt Millen of Detroit said it best when he told Sports Illustrated's Paul Zimmerman, "You never know for sure. And if you don't know it at the time, you don't feel right reporting it later."

To me, this isn't about what happened to other teams. The league needs to look into potential issues involving headsets, because we have heard nothing of these problems at other stadiums. If it's happening at Foxborough and nowhere else, it needs to be looked at very carefully.

What this is about also isn't the legacy of Belichick or Tom Brady or Charlie Weis or Robert Kraft or anyone else with the Patriots. It's not that I don't think anything of these questions. Instead, I don't think they're valid right now. These aren't the issues that you bring up in the week after a story like this breaks. They are the issues that we bring up once we know everything there is to know about the story. We don't know everything right now. In fact, we might not know much of anything.

I'm worried right now about the game's integrity, as is the commissioner. While some may say he didn't act harshly enough, I do think he took a huge step here. The punishment is not a light one, and it comes to one of the league's true signature franchises. I have no problem with it, because only a forfeit would have been more severe (I am not in the camp that believes a suspension of Belichick would have accomplished much, because it wouldn't have), and the Patriots weren't forfeiting a game they won 38-14 even if it was proven that they played with 12 guys on the field on every play.

In looking at what happened, I see a few indisputable points:

• The Patriots violated a league rule.
• The Patriots had been directly warned about this particular rule.
• The Patriots have done this before. If you believe that they just happened to get caught the first time they did something like this, then I'd like some of what you're smoking.
• Jets head coach Eric Mangini had some clue that the Patriots were doing this, likely from his time there as an assistant.
• Mangini should have reported what he knew to the league office long before it came to this.

If you believe this has never happened before, you're crazy. I guess there are some who believe that a person's first drunk-driving arrest signifies the first time they ever drove drunk. But I tend to think that's usually wrong.

Along similar lines, if you believe that this tarnishes the legacy of the franchise all by itself, you're also crazy. I mean, do you honestly think this hurts the legitimacy of every game this team has ever won? Don't you think they would have had the whistle blown on them at some point if it was really that well-known and common of a practice? What does it say about the NFL when a team can do this, possibly for years, and get away with it until one of their former assistant coaches gets the guts to say something?

Listen, I respect the Patriots and Belichick, but the bottom line is that they deliberately and knowingly broke NFL regulations and got caught. The "Everyone else is doing it" line doesn't work. The "We didn't think we were breaking the rules" line doesn't work. Neither does "It's not that big of a deal". If the league asks teams to avoid using a particular brand of tape or glove, and a team gets caught defying the request, it's a big deal. You do what you're asked, and you stop doing what you're asked to stop. It's not a time to try to skate by on "interpretation of the rule". That's an excuse, and a bad one at that.

It's similar to the athlete that says "I didn't know that what I was taking contained a banned substance". The body is a temple for these guys. They know what they're putting in it, and they're lying if they say they don't. They don't eat a bowl of cereal without checking first.

Belichick is in the same mold. If you think for one second that he's authorizing behavior that might be in direct violation of NFL rules without knowing that the league might be mad if they catch it, you're an apologist for the guy. Belichick and his coaches don't do anything without knowing first if it's legal by league rules. For that matter, no self-respecting NFL coach would do that.

Patriots fans, I have some simple advice for you. Your team cheated, and they got caught and punished rather severely for it. The sooner you can deal with these indisputable facts, rather than allowing yourself to get caught up in some PR garbage, the better.

This isn't about the Jets, Mangini, the Chargers, Lions, Bengals, Mike Martz, Tony Dungy, or anyone else not involved with the Patriots. Trying to make it about the "whiners on the outside" only makes your case look weak.

I guarantee that the Patriots organization will handle this aftermath better than their fans do.

NFL FOOTBALL '07: WEEK TWO PICKS

I'm left with one question after Week One:

If you're showing me a game in HD, and the game you are about to show a highlight from is also available in HD, why don't I get to see the highlight in HD?

I'm sure there's a perfectly reasonable explanation for this.

Last week: 11-5
Season: 11-5

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Titans won last week, even though they failed to show any proficiency throwing the football. I can't imagine this will continue, as not every opponent is going to let a team that can't throw the ball run for almost 300 yards.

The Colts are the Colts. Balanced enough on offense to keep you from keying on one guy, with an offensive line that pretty much keeps their QB clean all the time. Even though Vince and the Titans won over Indy last year, it's not going to happen again. They need to balance out that offense a little bit first.
The pick: Indianapolis

San Diego at New England: Much has been made of the following:

1. The Chargers' post-game whining after last year's playoff loss, some of which spilled into this week;
2. The videotape that got New England in serious trouble with the league office this week.

The Patriots and their fans can talk all they want about the Chargers' whining, but the reality is that it's a non-factor. Outside of the fact that they probably won't be stupid enough to do it again this week, the videotape is a non-factor.

What is a factor? The Chargers took a long time to wake up offensively last week, and they almost paid for it. In fact, they would have paid for it if the Bears didn't appear to be offensively inept. That can't happen again.

New England benefited greatly from the "What the (bleep)? Let's just throw it up to Randy" offense, last seen in Minnesota a few years ago. There's nothing wrong with it, really; in fact, it's fun. However, anyone who saw the Vikings operating the "WTFLJTIUTR" offense knows it can disappear at random. The Patriots have to remember that they should exercise moderation with the "WTFLJTIUTR" offense to avoid burnout and predictability. Then again, predictability has never been a problem for this offense.
The pick: New England

Other games (Home team in CAPS)
JACKSONVILLE over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH over Buffalo
Cincinnati over CLEVELAND
Green Bay over N.Y. GIANTS
CAROLINA over Houston
New Orleans over TAMPA BAY
San Francisco over ST. LOUIS
Dallas over MIAMI
DETROIT over Minnesota
Seattle over ARIZONA
CHICAGO over Kansas City
BALTIMORE over N.Y. Jets
DENVER over Oakland
PHILADELPHIA over Washington

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '07: WEEK THREE PICKS

Rollin' on, I guess.

Week Two saw some surprises, as reflected in the new BlogPoll (see to the right). LSU takes over at #1, and USC inexplicably falls to #3 because they dared not play a game.

I am not a USC fan by any means. In fact, I hope Nebraska takes them to the woodshed Saturday night (more on that in a moment). However, I'm not stupid. The Trojans have been one of the best programs in the country for about five years running. They were a well-deserved #1 in the polls in the preseason, and they convincingly won their game on September 1. They then had a bye week.

So what happened? Yeah, LSU won big over Virginia Tech. But that Virginia Tech team was so impressive that they have already changed quarterbacks. And so has that Miami team that new #2 Oklahoma pounded on last week.

Seriously, what did USC do? And if they do kick Nebraska into oblivion Saturday, will they get the same respect from the voters that LSU and Oklahoma did?

We shall see. Wednesday.

On to the picks.

Last week: 20-1
Season: 40-4

The Citadel at Wisconsin: Oy. I could rant and rave about non-conference scheduling and how really stupid it is, but you've read the rant, and you don't need to read it again. Plus, what level-headed person doesn't agree at this point?
The pick: Wisconsin

Central Michigan at Purdue: This looked like a good matchup until CMU went to Lawrence and lost to Kansas 52-7. Now, it looks like it will be an upset if it's not a blowout.
The pick: Purdue

Pittsburgh at Michigan State: Last year, the Spartans absolutely thrashed the Panthers in Pittsburgh. This time around, the Panthers are still training in a new QB while Sparty has looked quite solid, albeit against teams they should look solid against. If Pittsburgh can't run the ball effectively, they're probably in trouble.
The pick: Michigan State

Akron at Indiana: Expect Akron to play hard, like they did in Columbus last week. The Zips, however, looked practically punchless offensively against tOSU, and that's not likely to turn around in a week. Then again, it is the Indiana defense.
The pick: Indiana

Illinois at Syracuse: Outscored 42-12 in two games so far, Syracuse looks to turn things around at home. Keep looking, Orange.
The pick: Illinois

Buffalo at Penn State: See "The Citadel at Wisconsin".
The pick: Penn State

Minnesota at Florida Atlantic: Since this game is being played at Dolphins Stadium in Miami, this screams of "Please come to the game and help us reach NCAA Division I-A (er, FBS) attendance guidelines". It will take a near-perfect effort for the Owls to pull the upset, and that's not expected. The Gophers will pull away late with their spread offense.
The pick: Minnesota

Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa State has lost games to Kent State of the MAC and Northern Iowa of I-AA (er, FCS). Iowa, well, is better than those teams, meaning Gene Chizik gets a nightmare 0-3 start at home.
The pick: Iowa

Notre Dame at Michigan: What does this matchup have in common with "Houston at Tulane", "San Jose State at Stanford", and "Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois"? They're the only matchups of two winless I-A (er, FBS) teams this weekend. Some company, Lloyd and Charlie. Oh, the game. Um, I'll take Michigan. Why? Because I already know Notre Dame's offense stinks. I think Michigan has a chance to be at least decent.
The pick: Michigan

Ohio State at Washington: Wow, is Washington a bit of a surprise. They took it to Boise State last week, and now they get tOSU at home. The Buckeyes have not impressed on offense, but their defense is better than anything the Huskies have faced so far. Expect a low-scoring game, with tOSU coming out on top.
The pick: Ohio State

Duke at Northwestern: Nevada stinks, but it was still a really nice win for Northwestern last week, as they came from behind and got a masterful late 80-yard drive from QB C.J. Bacher. The Wildcats should have fewer problems this week.
The pick: Northwestern

Tennessee at Florida: The Gators won in dramatic fashion last year in Knoxville. This time around, the Volunteers won't blow a chance to win the game late.
The pick: Florida

Texas at Central Florida: UCF opens a shiny new on-campus stadium Saturday...by losing.
The pick: Texas

Arkansas at Alabama: To me, the big difference in this game is that Alabama has been somewhat underwhelming so far on offense. Their defense could be really good, but it's faced nothing like Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
The pick: Arkansas

Boston College at Georgia Tech: While everyone salivates over the matchup of Matt Ryan versus that aggressive Georgia Tech defense, Taylor Bennett and Tashard Choice will be busy dealing with the BC defense. I like Tech's side of both of those matchups.
The pick: Georgia Tech

USC at Nebraska: As I mentioned above, I am looking at this as a huge game. Nebraska doesn't figure to get the Arkansas treatment, because they're good enough to avoid it. However, that strong and quick USC defense is going to be too much in the end, and John David Booty will outplay Sam Keller.
The pick: USC

Florida State at Colorado: I like what I saw early from CU last week, but they simply imploded after taking a 14-0 lead. FSU seems to be the opposite. If they can avoid a hideous start like they had against Clemson, they will come out on top.
The pick: Florida State

BLOGPOLL BALLOT - PRELIMINARY

Few changes this week. Ballots due Wednesday, but I'm leaving town Tuesday so please offer up any thoughts on this ballot by no later than Tuesday morning.

Rank	Team	Change
1	Southern Cal	--
2	LSU	1
3	West Virginia	1
4	Florida	2
5	Oklahoma	2
6	Oregon	10
7	Arkansas	3
8	Nebraska	--
9	Wisconsin	5
10	Texas A&M	1
11	Louisville	2
12	Ohio State	--
13	California	--
14	Clemson	4
15	Texas	--
16	Virginia Tech	11
17	South Florida	2
18	Rutgers	4
19	Georgia Tech	7
20	Washington	6
21	Boise State	7
22	Missouri	1
23	Penn State	2
24	South Carolina	2
25	UCLA	1

Dropped Out: Auburn (#17), Miami (Florida) (#20), TCU (#21), Hawaii (#24).

Few thoughts on the reasoning for some of this:

Miami and TCU failed in tests against higher-ranked foes.
Hawaii should have lost. To Louisiana Tech.
Auburn practically gave the game away. And their offense still looks crappy.
Oregon was awesome...I don't care what you think about Michigan right now.
Wisconsin was bad and should have lost. To UNLV.
Virginia Tech wouldn't have beaten Michigan.
Washington was impressive in beating Boise State.

FOOTBALL WEEKEND

Before hockey takes over and consumes our lives for an entire winter, there are fun weekends like this, which are devoted to football.

14 hours of college football today, and close to that tomorrow with NFL openers.

Thanks to this site, I am able to lay out a list of all the college games I will be able to watch.

West Virginia at Marshall
Miami at Oklahoma
Nebraska at Wake Forest
Bowling Green at Michigan State
Nevada at Northwestern
Miami (Ohio) at Minnesota
Akron at Ohio State
Eastern Illinois at Purdue
Rhode Island at Army
Samford at Georgia Tech
California at Colorado State
North Carolina State at Boston College
Oregon at Michigan
Fresno State at Texas A&M
Boise State at Washington
UAB at Florida State
South Carolina at Georgia
Notre Dame at Penn State
North Carolina at East Carolina
BYU at UCLA
TCU at Texas
Western Illinois at Illinois
Maine at Connecticut
Hawai'i at Louisiana Tech
Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois
Stephen F. Austin at North Dakota State
Indiana at Western Michigan
Syracuse at Iowa
South Florida at Auburn
Virginia Tech at LSU
Wisconsin at UNLV
Colorado at Arizona State

You can find out your local stations' NFL games here.

More as the weekend goes on. Enjoy the football!

NFL FOOTBALL '07: WEEK ONE PICKS

I wavered on how to format a picks column. I know that some weeks will be hectic, and I don't want to sit here and write for hours about games I don't care about.

The way around that? I'm picking two, three, or four, or five, or whatever matchups to spotlight every week. That way, I can be lazy and still give you my picks.

About last night - Ouch. Wow. That was a beatdown in the second half. If the Saints play like that all season, we can forget about the feel-good Saints doing anything positive this year. That was an eye-opener. They actually looked as bad as the Giants' offense used to look when Sean Payton was calling plays. I wonder if there's any correlation to that.

Chicago at San Diego: I don't like either team's chances of repeating their success from last year, when they combined to go 29-6, including playoff games. The Bears face a challenge from Green Bay in the NFC North (if the Packers can do anything positive offensively), while the Chargers face a challenge from Norv Turner on their sidelines. Not sure who's worse off.

In this game, I'll take the Chargers at home, since they have the best offensive player in the game (LDT) and arguably the best defensive player in the game (Shawne Merriman, though that's heavily debatable). The Bears have too much potential for disaster on their offense.
The pick: San Diego

New England at N.Y. Jets: I think this matchup is wayyy overrated, but this gives me a chance to rip the media people who like the Jets so much. The QB (Pennington) can't throw deep and has a young, talented backup waiting for him to screw up. They can't stop the run (ask the Vikings, who spent one night in the preseason making people believe that they will be able to move the football this season).

I know it's sexy to pick the Jets because the Patriots are missing Seymour (injury) and Harrison (suspension) on the defense. But the Patriots are a strong multi-faceted offense, and there's no reason to think the Jets can slow them down.
The pick: New England

Philadelphia at Green Bay: McNabb's back, and this could mean trouble for Green Bay. One advantage for the Packers is that Philadelphia is no stronger offensively than they were a year ago, the Packers are much better on defense, and the Packers pose more of a threat to Philly's defense than they did last year. Oh, and the game is at home. This Packer team is determined to restore their home-field advantage. I think it starts in Week One.
The pick: Green Bay*

(*--The standing rule since about Week Nine last year: Pick the Packers unless there is an absolutely compelling reason not to, like "Brett Favre's dead", or something like that. Such a reason does not exist this week. Now, back to the rational portion of our football picks.)

Other games (home team in CAPS)
Denver over BUFFALO
Kansas City over HOUSTON
Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND
MINNESOTA over Atlanta
WASHINGTON over Miami
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee
ST. LOUIS over Carolina
OAKLAND over Detroit
SEATTLE over Tampa Bay
DALLAS over N.Y. Giants (Sunday night)
Baltimore over CINCINNATI (Monday night)
SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona (Monday night)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '07: WEEK TWO PICKS

Good start last week, eh? I was stupid enough to think Drew Weatherford would play better with a new and rather awesome offensive coordinator, the Gophers could beat a mediocre MAC team, and that Michigan could beat a I-AA team.

Since I strive for perfection, I'll have to keep trying. But I'm guessing last week is as close as I'll get.

(All games Saturday unless noted.)

Last week: 20-3
Season: 20-3

Eastern Illinois at Purdue: No Appalachian State deal here. At least not that I can figure.
The pick: Purdue

Nevada at Northwestern: The Wolf Pack showed last week that they are more of a rebuilding WAC team, and rebuilding WAC teams don't beat potentially good Big Ten teams, which Northwestern is.
The pick: Northwestern

Bowling Green at Michigan State: Sparty won't be caught off-guard by the Falcons' pass-happy version of the spread. One thing to worry about: It looks as if Michigan State will end up being rather one-dimensional on offense, with Jehuu Caulcrick providing that dimension.
The pick: Michigan State

Akron at Ohio State: The Buckeyes look just like I expected: shaky on offense and solid on defense. It's enough to beat the likes of Youngstown State and Akron, but the offense has to keep improving if they're going to win the Big Ten.
The pick: Ohio State

Miami (Ohio) at Minnesota: Minnesota should find it easier to slow the RedHawks' offense down. The question: Is Minnesota going to get better in their shiny new spread offense? They're going to have serious problems competing in the Big Ten if they can't run the offense with a bit more efficiency.
The pick: Minnesota

Oregon at Michigan: Listen, Michigan's not a bad team. They're a laughingstock, but it's not because they're a bad team. Unfortunately for them, they face a team that appears to cause them a host of matchup problems. I can't pick Michigan to beat a pretty good team until they show me something defensively.
The pick: Oregon

Notre Dame at Penn State: Like Michigan, Notre Dame is going to end up being pretty good, but they have problems right now. Like Michigan, Notre Dame is facing a team that appears capable of exploiting their primary weaknesses, which lie on offense.
The pick: Penn State

Western Illinois at Illinois: See "Eastern Illinois at Purdue".
The pick: Illinois

Syracuse at Iowa: With Syracuse on the road, we can all hope this means no head-to-toe orange for the Orange. Outside of that, not much to see here. If Iowa struggles, it's a bad sign.
The pick: Iowa

Indiana at Western Michigan: This is a pretty good matchup. The Broncos can move the ball a bit, which is a problem for Indiana since their defense stinks out loud. We know Indiana has some talent on offense, and it should be enough to keep up, though WMU is almost certain not to yield 62 like they did against West Virginia last week.
The pick: Indiana

Wisconsin at UNLV: This one is almost certain to be ugly. If UNLV somehow keeps this close enough to steal it in the fourth quarter, it's ugly, and if Wisconsin does what they should do, it's ugly.
The pick: Wisconsin

Navy at Rutgers (Friday): The Middies will come prepared, but are they physically equipped to slow down Ray Rice?
The pick: Rutgers

Nebraska at Wake Forest: Obviously, when Nebraska agreed to this trip, they didn't know Wake Forest would have a decent team. Instead of setting up as a walk-through for USC, this game sets up to be a dangerous one for the Cornhuskers if they aren't careful.
The pick: Nebraska

Miami (FL) at Oklahoma: Good matchup of intersectional teams with somewhat different expectations. It's an old rivalry that is like 20 years late in renewing. Miami is trying to get off the mat after a trying season, while Oklahoma is trying to prove it can contend for the Big 12 title with new starters in the offensive backfield. The Sooners appear further along in their goals, so I'll go with OU.
The pick: Oklahoma

Boise State at Washington: This is one of the more underrated games of the day. Boise has enough defense to slow down Washington's young offensive guns. The Huskies are resurging, but not quickly enough to stop the Broncos.
The pick: Boise State

South Carolina at Georgia: Maybe I'm wrong, and I'm too lazy to check my archives, but it doesn't strike me as a great idea to blindly pick the team coached by Spurrier. I'm going to do it anyway.
The pick: South Carolina

BYU at UCLA: You could argue that the up-and-down Bruins are almost assured of losing a game they should win at some point. And BYU seems like a great candidate to pull that off. Leave it up to me to go against that kind of logic.
The pick: UCLA

TCU at Texas: This the chic upset pick of the week. I'm always wary of those, because they often turn out the wrong way. TCU is a very good team, but I think Texas will come out with something to prove after a lackluster opener.
The pick: Texas

South Florida at Auburn: This potential upset hasn't gotten as much play this week...at least not that I've seen. But I love this game. USF is a potential shocker team in the Big East, and Auburn is not sharp offensively. The Tigers might come out smoking ala what I think Texas will do, but I believe the Bulls will get themselves a huge non-conference road win.
The pick: South Florida

Virginia Tech at LSU: Excellent way to cap a night of big intersectional non-conference games. This should be a defensive struggle, with both QBs having problems generating consistent offense. LSU wins because they have a better QB and a little more power on that defense.
The pick: LSU

Mid-Major Game of the Week
Toledo at Central Michigan: Two teams who are expected to contend for the MAC West title meet, both trying to rebound from poundings they took at the hands of BCS conference teams last week. No easy way to figure this one out, as both teams looked pretty terrible last week.
The pick: Central Michigan

NFL WEEK ONE - FOR STARTERS

I'm not going to spend much time on this, because I have food to prepare before the game tonight. But I wanted to get a pick in.

You've read my series of NFL previews, so I will just throw a few things out there.

• Neither defense is particularly impressive.
• As a result, everyone is predicting a high-scoring game, which probably ensures us a 20-14 result.
• This game counts. Finally.

I'm with the home team tonight. I think the Colts will struggle a bit to find their rhythm, but this is Peyton Manning we're talking about, and I think he's still driven.

The pick: Indianapolis

(The rest of the NFL picks for this weekend, along with my college picks, tomorrow.)

NFL FOOTBALL '07: NFC WEST

(Before I begin, a few things to note. You'll read some information in these previews that was blatantly stolen from the Pro Football Prospectus book, an extremely enjoyable publication released by the brains behind Football Outsiders. I want to give my props to Aaron Schatz and all his experts for their hard work. While I don't yet comprehend everything in the book, there are some great points both about teams and individual players. It's all helped me increase my understanding of football, and the Prospectus will be an annual purchase for me as long as it's in publication.)

We now continue our series of NFL previews with a look at the NFC West. You'll notice we've gone a bit shorter with this preview. Same goes for the NFC East and NFC South. Stupid time constraints. THE SEASON OPENS TONIGHT!!!

1. Seattle Seahawks
Last year: 9-7 (3-3 vs. NFC West)
Playoffs: Beat Dallas in NFC Wild Card; Lost to Chicago in NFC Divisional Playoff

At times last year, everything let the Seahawks down. The offensive line was often porous, Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander were both hurt, and the defense was equal parts dominant and awful.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Can Alexander bounce back? He may have been playing hurt most of the year, which would explain things, because his numbers were bad. 3.6 yards per carry, seven touchdowns, and five fumbles.

2. Are the receivers good enough? D.J. Hackett and Nate Burleson now work with Deion Branch as the primary receivers, as leading receiver Darrell Jackson was dealt to San Francisco during the draft. They won't desperately miss Jackson, but it's a blow to the position's depth, because they really didn't add anyone new.

3. Can Jim Mora coach up this secondary? The Seahawks have changed over some personnel here, and the hope is Mora - the former Falcons head coach - can help mold a cohesive unit. He has solid starters to work with at CB with Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings, but his safeties, Deon Grant and Brian Russell, are both new.

2. San Francisco 49ers
Last year: 7-9 (3-3 vs. NFC West)
Playoffs: None

The nattily-clad Mike Nolan appears to have this team headed in the right direction. QB Alex Smith is only going to improve, and they have an elite RB in Frank Gore that many people may have forgotten about. As the passing attack continues to gain steam, the 49ers will have to lean less and less on Gore and the defense to do everything.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Did they make the right moves at receiver? Darrell Jackson is a good pickup. He'll provide a solid target for Smith, and he'll start opposite the anonymous but talented Arnaz Battle. Ashley Lelie looked like a good idea at the time, but he's buried on the depth chart as we approach the opener. Remember, too, that super-athletic TE Vernon Davis should be healthy from the start.

2. How good is Gore? In an offense devoid of passing-game playmakers, Gore was four yards short of 1,700, and he averaged a more-than-impressive 5.4 yards per carry. He also caught 61 passes. An improved passing game is probably music to his ears, as it will peel those pesky defenders further and further away from the line of scrimmage.

3. $80 million? Really? Nate Clements is good, but it seems as if he's stolen some money from the 49ers here. He'll be paired as a starting CB with Walt Harris, who has been up-and-down for most of his career but managed eight picks last year. If Clements is as good as advertised, Harris will get even more chances to intercept the ball with an elite corner on the other side of the field.

3. St. Louis Rams
Last year: 8-8 (2-4 vs. NFC West)
Playoffs: None

Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger lead the way for the Rams now on offense, and the mission is a bit different than it was when Mike Martz ran things. They still light up opposing defenses, but Jackson gives them more muscle than sizzle. The problem, however, was the defense last year. And it's still a problem.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Will Jackson decline? 346 carries, 90 receptions. That's a lot, even for a young guy. But Jackson's high number of touches shouldn't be a problem just yet. Even with that in mind, expect the Rams to try to limit his work a little more this year. It would make sense, and a small cut in his touches wouldn't hurt the offense that much while it prolongs his career at the same time.

2. How much better will the defense be? It still looks like an issue for the Rams, though they tried to help themselves in the offseason by bringing in Mike Rumph and Lenny Walls to provide reinforcements in the secondary. The front seven is still missing something, even after they drafted lineman Adam Carriker in the first round.

3. Finally, about those special teams...? The Rams brought in former Chief Dante Hall to invigorate the worst return team in the NFL. Hall will do some things to make this unit better, but he won't work miracles without some blocking.

4. Arizona Cardinals
Last year: 5-11 (4-2 vs. NFC West)
Playoffs: None

It's a familiar thing for Cardinals fans, who are probably accustomed to the firing of failed head coaches and the hiring of new ones. With new coach Ken Whisenhunt comes optimism, but the same thing happened when Dennis Green got the job. He was who we thought he was, so he got fired.

KEY QUESTIONS
1. Will we ever see the old Edgerrin James again? While an offensive line would help, James is no longer a spring chicken. He struggled his way to a 1,000-yard season last year, needing 337 carries to do it because of a 3.4-yard average. Improvement on the line, thanks to new line coach Russ Grimm, will make James a better back. How much better is in question because of his advancing age.

2. Will Matt Leinart be good? A lot of it depends on the line and James, but Leinart showed me a lot last year. He has a good arm, is smart, and has the guts to be a leader at this position. He knows to feed the ball to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, too, and that can make any quarterback look good.

3. Is the defense going to see improvement? Some, yes, but injury and age issues along the defensive line will combine with talent issues in the secondary to hold the Cardinals back a little bit. The first part of the schedule will really test this team, with the 49ers, Seahawks, Ravens, Steelers, and Rams all in the first five weeks.