Thinking Out Loud: Twins, Brewers Seek Improvement

Baseball is back. I'll have to admit: I didn't watch much of it last year. The Brewers stunk, and the Twins were much worse. Our local nines were stuck in the bowels of sucktitude. Once June hit, there was no real reason to watch baseball, and I might have seen a couple games through the summer.

In the words of Canadian alternative band Evans Blue, this time it's different.

Maybe.

The Twins look miserable once again. Yeah, they went out and bought themselves some requisite major league pitching. That was good, because they didn't really have any in 2013. For an organization that home-grew guys like Brad Radke, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano (yeah, I know he wasn't drafted, but most of his development was as a Twin), and others, the well ran dry in a hurry.

While Trevor May and Alex Meyer mature in Rochester, the team needs Ricky Nolasco, Philip Hughes, and 2013 newcomers Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey to lead the way. Monday, Nolasco sure didn't start well, giving up five runs and ten hits in six innings as Minnesota fell 5-3 to the White Sox.

I'm actually optimistic about Minnesota's pitching. Less so about the bats.

If you follow me on Twitter, you'll know I've been pretty consistent with the stance that Joe Mauer will have a big offensive season, by his standards. I said that when the team announced his move to first base. I'm thinking 15-20 home runs, the typical 30-35 doubles, .400 OBP, and a jump in slugging percentage, closer to his MVP season (.587) but not quite hitting that unsustainable number.

Mauer won't be the problem. If Monday's lineup is any indication, the problem will lie above him in the batting order.

Spare me the "two hits, three RBI" talk with Kurt Suzuki. He's a good defensive catcher and only a passable, replacement-level bat for the position.

He hit second in Monday's game. Brian Dozier, who makes outs for breakfast every day, was the leadoff hitter. Ahead of Mauer. Poor guy -- figuratively speaking, of course, since we all know Mauer is filthy rich -- is going to lead the American League in "at bats with two out and nobody on base" this season (had one Monday, three total two-out at bats).

I'd love to rip Ron Gardenhire, but until Aaron Hicks proves himself, the Twins don't have a viable leadoff hitter, or No. 2 guy.

Unless you put Mauer in the leadoff spot. And even that's not ideal, because while he gets more at bats, it also takes him away from more of a run-producing role.

And, no, Byron Buxton isn't ready yet.

Meanwhile, the Brewers actually have a pretty formidable top of the order. Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and Jonathan Lucroy can all rake. Youngster Scooter Gennett has shown promise at second base, where Rickie Weeks has sufficiently flamed out and has little use to this team in his current form.

This team can score runs from the top of the order. It's the bottom that has me concerned, but lots of teams can say that.

Who's playing first base? Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay.

Who's in left instead of Braun? Khris Davis.

Yuck.

They better get runs out of the top five guys, and some production out of Gennett, because whatever they get from left field and (especially) first base is going to be a bonus.

The pitching staff is solid (the Matt Garza signing was genius, because now Milwaukee has three proven starters in a pitching-rich division), but the NL Central is stacked. The Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are all contender types, so the Brewers are lost in the shuffle in the division race.

I have hope for Milwaukee, though. Ownership is committed to competing, and since the young talent pool is dry compared to, say, Minnesota, the Brewers have to make moves like the Garza and Kyle Lohse (last year) signings to stay above water.

What do the teams have in common? Solid bullpens. Minnesota's has more upside, but both should be just fine, at the worst.

For the Twins, the offense and the lack of high-end pitching will hold them back in a division that isn't exactly stacked.

For the Brewers, it's more about the top teams that already exist, along with the lack of balance in the batting order. Damn, do they miss Prince Fielder in Milwaukee.

Brewers Paying Players Twins Didn't Want

We're a week from Opening Day.

Actually, it's less than that.

So I'm going to throw a few baseball thoughts out there.

First off, over the course of spring training, the Brewers have now guaranteed $61 million to two former Twins. Carlos Gomez signed a three-year extension worth $24 million on top of a $4 million deal he already got for this season. Go-Go struggled to hit consistently in Minnesota. Well, he also did in Milwaukee, but he seemed to pick things up last season, hitting .260 and showing flashes of 30/30 type ability. But $28 million for four years?

Before I felt I had that deal totally figured out, here comes Kyle Lohse. The former Twins starter got $33 million over three years on Monday.

That's how bad the Brewers rotation looks. They signed their No. 2 or No. 3 -- depending on how you feel about Marco Estrada -- with a week left in spring training. And guaranteed him $11 million per season.

Oh, and the Brewers also surrendered their first-round pick in the June draft to sign Lohse.

As a Brewer fan, I really hope this works out. But the Twins haven't exactly been known for dumping loads of good players in the past. Gomez and Lohse are both guys the Twins decided they didn't need around anymore.

Gomez is a lot of fun to watch, especially in center field. He doesn't always take the best angles on the ball, but he's so fast that his recovery can be as entertaining as anyone else.

Lohse had a bad clubhouse rep in Minnesota. Never heard "boo" about him in St. Louis, but that is a different culture there. It'll be interesting to see if that "surrender No. 1 pick" issue is the biggest reason Lohse couldn't get a gig all winter, or if there is more to it than just that and money. If Lohse is on, as evidenced by his 16 wins and sub-3.00 ERA last season, he is certainly a very effective arm at the top of a rotation.

Of course, the last time the Brewers plucked a pitcher straight out of the Cardinals' rotation, it was Braden Looper. He gave up 39 home runs for the Brewers in 2009, and the team wasn't very good because he and Jeff Suppan drug the whole pitching staff down.

(In fact, Looper and Suppan, BOTH FORMER CARDINALS, combined to throw around 355 innings in 2009 for Milwaukee. 426 hits, 138 walks, and 64 home runs later, the Brewers had sufficiently wasted amazing seasons from both Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. 80-82. Thanks, management.)

Anyway, that's $61 million the Twins didn't want to spend. Given Minnesota's issues at positions not occupied by Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Josh Willingham, it's up to you whether the Twins got the better end of losing Gomez and Lohse.

Random Rabble: March 29

The Montreal Canadiens did the expected Thursday morning, firing general manager Pierre Gauthier. This has been a disastrous season for the Canadiens, who are last in the Eastern Conference and have already made waves by firing an assistant coach a couple hours before a game, firing the head coach on a game day, and hiring a non-French speaking coach to finish the season. Gauthier's reign being as bad as it was means most fans will probably look at this news as a positive.

But even that's relative. No one who roots for this team is truly happy, because the fact Gauthier had to go only means the franchise is in worse shape than when he took over, and that's just not acceptable.

No idea what direction Montreal will go for a new coach (no way Randy Cunneyworth stays) and GM. My guess is both will have French-speaking abilities.

Baseball is upon us, and the Brewers will again give the ball to Yovani Gallardo for Opening Day. It's not surprising, as this will be Gallardo's third straight season-opening start for the Crew. What might make it a mild surprise is the fact that Gallardo's career numbers against the Brewers' opponent next Friday -- defending World Series champion St. Louis -- are poor (11 starts, 1-7, 5.66).

The Cardinals' offense shouldn't be as menacing without Albert Pujols, but I really liked the Carlos Beltran signing. He can't hit 35 home runs or anything like that, but he has a good bat and can play center field as good as anyone around.

I'm pretty pumped for Opening Day, as usual. The Brewers won the division last year, and while the offseason wasn't exactly outstanding -- the team lost Prince Fielder, had the Braun drug controversy, and overpaid for Aramis Ramirez -- it looks like the Brewers should stay at or near the top of the Central this year.

Twins fans have reason for optimism, too, as Justin Morneau is mashing at spring training. After a 3-for-33 start to the spring, Morneau has been hot for a week or so. He's 8-for-17 with nine RBI over the last five games. Oh, and Joe is hitting .340. The Twins soooooo desperately need those bats back to snuff. The Twins don't figure to have great pitching this year, though good seasons from Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano might change that a bit.

It's hard to trust this rotation. We've danced this dance with Liriano numerous times. Pavano will never be more than he is now. Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn are solid pitchers, but can they stay healthy and consistent enough?

When next Friday rolls around, and the baseball games count again, it'll be interesting to see how long the Twins and Brewers can stay relevant.

Random Rabble: March 19

Where Bruce rambles about topics that interest him but have nothing to do with college hockey.

Haven't done anything like this in a while, so here goes.

The NCAA Tournament is remarkably low on Cinderellas this year. Yeah, there are some double-digit seeds still alive for the round of 16, but it's hard to look at North Carolina State as a Cinderella. They do play in the ACC, after all. Ohio is about the only one left.

Well, until the Bobcats get waxed by North Carolina Friday.

Can Wisconsin advance? Bo Ryan is notorious for getting teams to the Sweet 16 but not any further than that. But his Achilles heel has been lower-seeded teams, not higher. It's games against teams like Davidson and Butler that have left fans steaming, not games like the one coming on Thursday against Syracuse. In some ways, people may actually like the Badgers' chances more in that game, largely because Fab Melo won't play for the Orange, and also because Wisconsin will go in as the underdog.

You could argue Wisconsin beat Vanderbilt as an underdog, too. The Commodores became a sexy pick to come out of that region after Melo's suspension was announced. Suddenly, the Badgers' suffocating defense has knocked the 'Dores out of the dance.

14 of the 16 teams left come out of major conferences. There are low seeds left -- like NC State and Florida and Cincinnati, for example. But the tournament is void of the kind of story it's had with the Butlers and VCUs of recent years.

That is, unless Ohio does the improbable against the Heels on Friday.

Speaking of the NCAA Tournament, ESPN's Bob Knight is getting plenty of heat, and justifiably so. Previewing Saturday's NCAA Tournament games for ESPN, Knight was asked to put a team on upset alert. He chose Kentucky, set to play a game against Iowa State, but he refused to say "Kentucky," instead referring to the Wildcats as "the team from the SEC."

Fellow ESPNer Rick Reilly, shockingly, threw out a pretty funny tweet ripping Knight.

What happens to Bob Knight if he says the word "Kentucky"? Does his lower jaw fall off? Snakes spring from his hair? My God, does he smile?
— Rick Reilly (@ReillyRick) March 17, 2012

It's pretty lame for Knight to go this route. Obviously, there are petty issues with Knight and Kentucky. While those issues might go back to when Knight coached at Indiana, don't forget that Knight had it out with UK coach John Calipari over players attending class.

Knight apologized for those idiotic remarks, but obviously still feels some sort of bitterness toward Calipari. I'm not saying Calipari is clean as a whistle, because I don't know, but it doesn't justify Knight's unprofessional behavior. If he can't talk about Kentucky in an objective manner, he needs to recuse himself from the conversation.

He might feel people would think he's a chicken for doing that, but he'd be the bigger person, something Knight has never been known for in his career.

NFL free agency has been quiet for the Vikings and Packers so far. No one is surprised that the Packers have been in a slumber. Green Bay, under GM Ted Thompson, just hasn't splurged much, if at all. Thompson builds through the draft, and he prefers to spend money on contract extensions for his young talent as warranted. He lets guys walk and makes it look callous and without any real thought attached to it. In reality, these are tough decisions that Thompson has always taken seriously, and I think his success at making good decisions has made some fans lay off the boss.

It seems Minnesota is trying to copy the blueprint Thompson is following. Asked about his team's lack of spending last week, general manager Rick Spielman told KFAN in the Cities that the organization did spend money, noting contract extensions for guys like Adrian Peterson, Chad Greenway, and John Sullivan.

This seems like something Thompson would say, and it's a fair point. Spielman wants to build a quality team through the draft, and use free agency to supplement the guys he's able to find and develop. This keeps the team from overspending on guys like Pierre Garcon, a quality player who got a lot more money than his production to this point warrants.

Did the Vikings overpay Peterson? You could argue they did, and you'd have a point. But teams are almost always better off overpaying their own guys than overpaying for someone else's guys who could easily become questionable fits in their new team's system, not to mention the locker room.

Greenway, on the other hand, was not a smart signing. He's an average linebacker who tackles well, fills against the run well, and can cover people, but he's not explosive, he's not dynamic, and he's not a playmaker. He doesn't make this a better team, and it was a reach of a signing.

The Twins made a move Monday, sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to the minors. Nishioka wasn't hitting in spring training (.240 average), and he was continuing to make mistakes in the field. I don't know if this ends the experiment completely, but it certainly is a bad sign.

It doesn't necessarily mean that Minnesota is keeping a better player on the major-league roster. Given his injury setback last year, it could be argued that Nishioka doesn't need to be a bench player for the Twins. He needs to play games. I'm not saying that a two-month stint in Rochester is going to make this signing look good. I'm saying that a two-month stint in Rochester could be just what the doctor ordered to make this signing look like something less than the colossal bust it appears to be right now.

For the Twins, it's probably the last chance to make anything out of the money they gave the former Japanese batting champion.

No Matter Their Reasons, Twins Got This One Right

As we get wound up for the hot stove season in baseball*, the Minnesota Twins made their first significant move of the offseason Monday.

(* - Yes, I know free agency has started, but nothing of note generally happens until after the winter meetings.)

The Twins' move doesn't involve a player. Instead, the team has gone to its past to try to save its future.

General manager Bill Smith was fired Monday, with the team citing the always-mysterious "philosophical differences" in making the announcement. Former general manager Terry Ryan -- who served in that capacity from 1994-2007 -- is taking over on an interim basis.

"Philosophical differences" doesn't tell us much. Thankfully, 1500 ESPN's Phil Mackey did some digging on the matter.

Smith was fired, according to sources with knowledge of the team's thinking, because he simply had lost the confidence of the people around and underneath him within the organization.

... The firing, however, had nothing to do with a drop in payroll, sources said -- Smith was told, with no qualms, that the payroll would dip from $115 million to approximately $100 million. Turning a 99-loss team into a contender with a limited free-agent budget is a tall task, as the Twins are already tied up for about $80 million, but Smith did not push back in that regard.

The firing also had nothing to do with the addition of former Cincinnati Reds' GM Wayne Krivsky as a pro scout and adviser -- Smith actually facilitated that move perhaps more aggressively than anyone in the organization, one source said.

There was just a growing sense within the organization that Smith was not the right man to turn things around going forward -- a notion his successor Terry Ryan laments, because he was the one who recommended Smith to be his own successor in the first place.

Unquestionably, this is a sensitive issue for everyone involved, especially considering that Smith replaced Ryan, and now we're seeing the script flipped for the world to see.

The Twins had no choice here, especially if Mackey's report rings true (no reason to think it doesn't). The organization hasn't been moving forward lately. It's been moving the other direction. Minnesota hasn't drafted terribly well, and the players they have drafted haven't been making the kind of impact that they should.

I'm not saying the Twins can't grow prospects. Certainly, guys like Denard Span, Ben Revere, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau have done a lot of good things. But the Twins don't have the rotation ace they need, the bullpen they should have, and they haven't developed an impact position player since Kubel. He's been around long enough to be eligible for free agency, so that should tell you something.

The Twins denied permission to the Orioles to speak with scouting director Mike Radcliff about their front-office overhaul last week. It makes you think that Radcliff might be in play for the "permanent" job in Minnesota.

But is that the right way to go? It's not like the Twins are overwhelmed with prospects, and that's on the scouting guy, at least in part. Perhaps there were issues here with Smith (speculation) trying to control too much, and then this all makes more sense.

Hats off to the Twins, who didn't take any shots at Smith or reveal whatever the issue was with him. It's something more specific than "philosophical differences," but there's no point in tearing the man down more than firing him already did.

No matter the motivation, Twins brass got it right. Ryan is a good baseball man, and a loyal Twins employee. He thinks this can be fixed quickly, and we can only hope he's right. It went south in a hurry, and hopefully it can go north just as fast.

Interleague Play Whining Continues

Interleague play begins in Major League Baseball Friday, and you know what that means ...

Bigger crowds.

AL pitchers having to (gasp!) hit.

Whining.

When interleague play started in the 1990s, it created all sorts of intriguing matchups we hadn't seen before. The regional rivalries -- namely Yankees/Mets, Cubs/White Sox, Angels/Dodgers, and Rangers/Astros -- got varying amounts of interest, but they sure were fun to watch for the most part. The crowds made them fun.

Of course, crowds weren't going to show up when the Pirates played the Tigers, but it was made up for when Detroit fans got to see a team like the Cardinals, or when Pittsburgh fans got a chance to watch the Yankees.

This year, one of the highlights of the interleague schedule is this weekend's series between the Cubs and Red Sox at Fenway Park, marking Chicago's first visit to Fenway since 1918. That's pretty cool, right?

Well, it's not cool enough for chain-smoking Tigers manager and apparent curmudgeon Jim Leyland.

The appeal of interleague play, Leyland said, “has worn off for me. It was a brilliant idea to start with, but it has run its course.” He knows that higher-ups, such as his good friend Commissioner Bud Selig, won’t want to hear it, but Leyland spoke his mind all the same. “I’ll probably get chewed out for (saying) it,” he said, “but I think a lot of people feel the same way … I’m on the (Commissioner’s) committee, and I’ll probably get a phone call,” said Leyland, “but I don’t really care. That’s totally ridiculous.”

When I think of things that are ridiculous, I'm usually going to come up with stuff that isn't very good.

How is interleague play bad? San Francisco scribe -- and apparently a fellow curmudgeon -- Bruce Jenkins offers up an explanation.

Check out these discrepancies:

The Giants' series at Detroit represents their only interleague road trip (Oakland doesn't count). San Diego goes to Boston, Minnesota and Seattle.

The Giants play only four American League teams. Arizona plays six, with road trips to Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland.

While the Giants face Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit from the A.L. Central, the Colorado Rockies have four series against that division and a trip to Yankee Stadium.

The Giants play 15 interleague games. Arizona plays 18, as does Oakland.

Tell me this stuff won't be a bone of contention if a team gets knocked out of the postseason by a game or two.

Really? So who's going to have a case? Whose schedule is easier?

Last I checked, each team in the majors played 162 games -- 81 home and 81 away. Each team will usually have a couple roadtrips that approach or surpass double digits in the number of games scheduled, and each team usually has a homestand or two of similar length. Each team plays a ton of division games, and each team plays everyone else in their league (American or National) both home and away.

If the Giants miss the playoffs by a game or two, will they complain that they had to play two series against a pretty good Oakland team while Colorado was playing Minnesota and Detroit? Or will Colorado whine about playing at Yankee Stadium if they miss the playoffs?

There's an easy solution.

Win more games.

If you don't like the interleague schedule, it doesn't matter. Just win.

(Full disclosure: Jenkins' next note in this piece calls out Ned Yost for being a hot-headed moron after he left a pitcher out to allow 14 runs in just over two innings of work this week. He deserves credit for that, even if I've been saying that since like 2007. Yost is a terrible manager who has no business working with so many young players like he is in Kansas City.)

Anyway, I'm beyond tired of hearing about the unequal schedules you get out of interleague play. No one's schedule is the same, not even within divisions. If the Brewers beat out the Cardinals for a playoff spot, do you think Tony LaRussa is going to go on a diatribe about the fact the Brewers got more home games against the Mets than his team did?

(Actually, LaRussa might do something like this, but you get the point.)

It's ridiculous.

Really, this is nothing more than selective whining by people who don't like interleague play. They thought the fad was gone, but attendance figures and television ratings continue to prove them wrong. They think the fans hate the thing, but the fans don't. They think the players hate it, but they're not vocal about it if they do.

So now they're going to hammer on unequal scheduling, without realizing that no schedules are equal in baseball, with or without interleague play.

Having dinosaurs like Leyland out there using bad arguments to support their hatred of a good thing in baseball doesn't make anyone look good.

Delmon Young: Necessary Evil

As the Minnesota Twins have dealt with the death of a franchise icon and strung together a couple of wins on the road out west, there has been quite the interesting undertone to the road trip.

On Monday, after a 5-2 loss in Seattle, reports began surfacing of a screaming match in the team's clubhouse. There were apparently no members of the media present ... either that, or none of them are talking about what they saw.

Tuesday, manager Ron Gardenhire revealed that the commotion was the result of a veteran player upset with one or more younger players. As you may know, the Twins aren't exactly old, so you can probably narrow that down to a guy like Michael Cuddyer or Justin Morneau. Gardenhire wants his vets to take more of a vocal role in the clubhouse, largely because it means he doesn't have to deal with all the little petty BS that is bound to come up over a 162-game season.

The names of the players involved did not end up getting revealed, though KFAN's Paul Allen may have gotten us closer to some answers. In the first hour of his radio show Thursday, Allen mentioned that it was his understanding -- via sources -- that Delmon Young was one of the players taking a verbal beatdown of sorts.

Young struck out ten times over four games after returning to the lineup, and he was glued to the bench for two straight games until the tenth inning of Wednesday's win in Oakland, when he pinch-hit and rapped a base hit to start the winning rally. Making matters worse, his effort in left field was questioned multiple times since his return.

At just .203/.247/.243 this year, Young is a shell so far of the player who drove in 112 runs and posted a career-high OPS of .826 last year. He'll never be the kind to draw a lot of walks (28 in 613 plate appearances last year), but he makes good contact, is a home-run threat, and also hit 46 doubles last year.

The problem with Young is twofold. For starters, he is a butcher defensively. He makes Jason Kubel look like gold-glove material, and that's just not good enough when he isn't hitting the ball. The other problem is that he appears aloof and uncaring at times. That's not to say he doesn't care -- how the hell would I know? -- but instead is simply a note that he looks that way. When a guy who looks like he doesn't care gets his ass chewed in the clubhouse, it adds to the perception, fair or not.

The other problem with Young is that the Twins simply can't move him right now. Even if he's hitting, his value is much greater on this team than it is on virtually any other. He's a right-handed stick who can hit the ball far. The Twins have virtually none of those, because their best power guys -- Morneau, Jim Thome, and Kubel -- are left-handed, and so is their best hitter (Joe Mauer, when healthy ... whenever that is).

Cuddyer is the Twins' only other power threat from the right side, and he simply isn't a consistent enough threat.

Young can't be moved unless the Twins have been hiding a right-handed power hitter somewhere.

And if they've been doing that, they've got other problems besides Young's alleged aloofness ... or his defensive blunders.

Frustration Mounts Over Struggling Twins

As I wrote last week, it's not like the Twins are doing one thing wrong in their hideous start to the season. They can't score, can't pitch, and don't play very good defense.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

The Twins again sport baseball's worst record -- 12-23 -- after a loss to Detroit Wednesday. This five-game skid comes after a three-game winning streak that came after a six-game losing streak.

Two weeks before Memorial Day, the Twins already find themselves 11 games out of first place in the AL Central, and while you can argue Cleveland will come back to Earth at some point, the last-place Twins are hardly the team that will make them do that.

Joe Mauer isn't healthy. Justin Morneau isn't hitting like he is healthy. On Wednesday, Michael Cuddyer drove in a runner that wasn't himself for the second time this season.

If you want to know why this team is struggling so much, just look at these three guys. It's not to put all the blame on them, because it's not Mauer's fault he's hurt, and it's not Morneau's fault he got sick and lost a ton of weight he can't gain back. And it's not Cuddyer's fault that we've all probably overrated him a bit over the years.

But these are the Twins' three best and most consistent hitters. None of them are producing at a level they should be. Factor in that Delmon Young and Jim Thome are also on the shelf, and you have more than half of the team's best available non-pitchers who are either injured or so severely underperforming that you know it can't continue.

At least it doesn't seem that way.

Turning the pitching around is another story. Carl Pavano has never been consistently good, so a dropoff from a solid 2010 is not a surprise from him. Francisco Liriano is fighting every pitch in his arsenal, it seems, and all that does is make him question himself. Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing are back-of-the-rotation guys on a good staff, and Scott Baker is the latest incarnation of Brad Radke to adorn the Twins' rotation. Nothing special, but a guy who typically throws strikes and doesn't get shelled.

Getting Joe Nathan right is a priority, too, but it starts and ends with the offense. The Twins have allowed 187 runs so far. While that's not acceptable, the offense has been much, much worse. Minnesota has all of 113 runs in 35 games, horrific when you consider the alleged talent on hand. Their minus-74 run differential is by far the worst in the majors, 31 runs more than second-worst Houston.

Think about that. The Twins are losing games by almost one run per game than the next-worst team in baseball.

You don't there because of one guy.

Getting Mauer back will help. Getting Tsuyoshi Nishioka back will help.

Getting everyone back playing at their expected level would help more. That means Cuddyer might want to get on a pace for more than 25 RBI this season.

Francisco Liriano's No-Hitter Could Be Sign of Change

Just hours before the first pitch, I filed a piece talking about how the Twins had to find a way to get this wayward ship turned in the right direction quickly.

The notion that they have to play .630 ball over the rest of the season to match last year's win total wasn't daunting, because they don't necessarily have to finish with that kind of record to make the playoffs.

However, you can't keep scuffling along the way the Twins were and expect things to just start getting better.

Hopefully, Francisco Liriano started the ball rolling in the right direction Tuesday night.

Liriano threw one of the more improbable no-hitters in baseball history Tuesday in Chicago, as the Twins beat the White Sox 1-0. It's improbable for a slew of reasons:

• Only 66 of his 123 pitches went for strikes, a strikingly low number.
• He walked six batters and only struck out two, meaning his defense turned 22 balls in play into outs (three double plays).
• Liriano entered this start 1-4 with a 9.13 ERA, the second-worst ERA to start a game by a pitcher who would go on to throw a no-hitter since the earned run became an official statistic in 1913.
• He was only pitching with a one-run lead for most of the game, though there have been five 1-0 no-hitters in the last 20 years, so maybe that's not as big a deal as I think.

There is no doubt that things going on "between the ears" mean a lot for pitchers, perhaps more for pitchers than any other position in the game. For Liriano, this could be a huge development.

No, he wasn't throwing absolute filth Tuesday night. He was scattershot with his pitches, and he had trouble locating virtually everything. There will be -- unquestionably -- some fans (especially fans of the White Sox) who call this some version of an "accidental" no-hitter. It was the pairing of a guy who had decent stuff with a team capable of hitting the ball right at people.

But it's confidence for Liriano, and he needed that more than anything.

It's also a shot in the arm for a team that has seen nothing go right for 27 games. Between injuries and underperforming players, Minnesota has seen little that was worth celebrating this season. Now, they have that. They have the first no-hitter of the baseball season.

And no matter how much White Sox fans hate it, they can't ever take this one away from Liriano.

Twins Struggles are All-Around

Sometimes, when a team gets off to a slow start, you can pin the problems on one or two areas.

(This can be true in any sport. A basketball team could have solvable problems rebounding or shooting that cause a losing streak. Football teams might not block well or get enough pressure out of the front seven because of problems with execution or communication. A hockey team might just get in a lull where they don't give the necessary second and third efforts to make important plays. It's not always permanent.)

For the Minnesota Twins, their 9-18 start is equal parts hideous and alarming.

It's hideous because virtually no one is playing to what their perceived capabilities are.

It's alarming because virtually no one is playing to what their perceived capabilities are, and there's no tangible end in sight.

Between injuries and completely ineffective players, the Twins don't have enough bodies to answer all their questions.

In the Star Tribune, LaVelle E. Neal III did a great job laying out many of the issues Tuesday.

Among them:

• Alexi Casilla is hitting .190 and stinks defensively.
• Danny Valencia is hitting .211, stinks defensively, and seems to struggle with baserunning when he bothers to avoid making an out.
• Justin Morneau just hit his first home run of the season and is carrying a .225 average into Tuesday's game at Chicago.
• Joe Mauer is still out.
• Mauer wasn't hitting when he was in.
• Drew Butera is hitting .106 in Mauer's place at catcher, making Mauer's .235 average look like freaking Ted Williams. Butera is an ace defensively, but has a lower average than that of all National League pitchers combined, Neal notes.
• As a team, the Twins have 12 home runs. Alfonso Soriano has 11 by himself.
• Michael Cuddyer is hitting .226 with four RBI, putting him on pace for approximately 25 this season.
• The Twins have scored 85 runs. St. Louis' Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, and Colby Rasmus have combined for 88 by themselves.
• Minnesota's team ERA of 5.06 is the worst in baseball, and nearly double that of first-place Oakland (2.66).
• The "pitch to contact" mantra isn't working well. The Twins have just 152 strikeouts, easily the worst in baseball.

I probably missed a few here, but that's part of the point. The Twins aren't doing much right, and there aren't enough hours in the day to take care of the necessary problems via instruction or some sort of video session or whatever.

They're on their own for this one.

Getting Mauer back could be beneficial, and it won't hurt when Tsuyoshi Nishioka is healthy. In the end, though, a whole lot of guys have to start hitting, and the Twins can ill afford to see Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, and Nick Blackburn stink the joint up nearly as much as they have been as of late.

When Scott Baker is your ace, and he has one win, you have problems.

Then again, when you look at the laundry list of issues above, it's hard to argue the Twins don't have problems.

Now, they just need to find solutions before it's too late.

Hot Stove Heats Up in Florida

The winter meetings are closing down in Florida, as baseball's biggest free agent (Cliff Lee) still doesn't have a contract for 2011, and the best position player on the market (Carl Crawford) is heading to Boston to join the best offseason trade target (Adrian Gonzalez ... a better get than Prince Fielder from Boston's perspective because he was easier to sign long-term).

As usual, the Twins and Brewers didn't do anything terribly huge or terribly terrible, preferring the conservative route rather than the glitz and glamor of the big-time players. Milwaukee traded top prospect and apparent meathead Brett Lawrie to Toronto for starting pitcher Shawn Marcum, who could end up starting the Brewers' third game next season (assuming manager Ron Roenicke goes with Yovani Gallardo on Opening Day and Randy Wolf to follow). A good, sensible deal that gives the Brewers a good starting pitcher in exchange for a guy with exactly zero games played in the majors.

The Twins, meanwhile, decided to shake up their infield, dealing shortstop J.J. Hardy and utility guy Brendan Harris to Baltimore for a couple pitchers none of their fans have heard of. Hardy had a decent year at the dish when he was healthy, but he's streaky offensively and has shown the inability to stay healthy. With Tsuyoshi Nishioka on his way from Japan to play shortstop, the Twins could afford to jettison the more expensive and less reliable (also noticeably slower, from what it sounds like) Hardy.

Even without a guarantee of major-league talent in return, the Twins made a smart move that clears room in their infield for Nishioka, a solid hitter who has been raved as a defensive middle infielder.

If you're a Brewers or Twins fan, you're probably happy, because your team is better now than it was on Monday, especially Milwaukee. As they continue the search for quality pitching, we're reminded of the formula San Francisco used to win their championship, while the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers spent a ton of cash to combine for one playoff appearance.

It's not about the size of your payroll. It's about your ability to acquire quality pitching, play strong defense, and get just enough hitting to make the first two things relevant.

Be Careful What You Wish For, Ozzie Guillen

The Minnesota Twins have won four of six from the hated Chicago White Sox in the last week-plus. They have three games left together later in September.

After Thursday's 11-0 White Sox win that allowed them to avoid a sweep and a six-game hole in the American League Central, Chicago manager Ozzie Guillen -- not known for ever really filtering his thoughts -- was very clear.

He wants more from the Twins.

He can't wait to see them again.

"Give me a shot against them late in the season," Guillen said. "I predict this thing is going to be all the way to the wire. We stay healthy, we are going to compete and see what happens."

Hey, Ozzie: You're 5-10 against the Twins this season. That's five three-game series, at least on average, and you win one of three each time.

Do you really want to play them again?

Doesn't seem like a good idea to me. Instead, the White Sox are better off setting the Twins up with more dates against the Yankees, who they can't seem to beat under any circumstances.

Give Minnesota credit, because the White Sox have played some awesome baseball this season, but still can't seem to solve the puzzle when it comes time to play the Twins.

Let's hope it stays that way, so Ozzie can relive more of his personal nightmares Sept. 14-16 at U.S. Cellular Field.

Hello, Target Field!

Congratulations, Minnesota.

I didn't make it, but I haven't heard one bad word yet, and from the view on television, it looks like you have a beauty.

Can't wait.

Oh, and that's Jason Kubel hitting the first home run (that counts) in the stadium's history. Marco Scutaro of the loser Red Sox had the first hit, and Denard Span scored the first run.

Delmon Young had the first "warning track fly ball dropped because the outfielder couldn't tell where the wall was," so there's that.

Twins Hope To Be On Target: 2010 American League Central Preview

Not too long ago, the American League Central was a laughingstock. It was in a position where it simply didn't appear that anyone in the division was worthy of a playoff spot, and it housed some of the worst teams in the sport.

They've come a long way since then. Detroit made the World Series in 2006, and though they bowed out meekly to St. Louis, the Tigers served notice that this division wasn't going to be a punch line anymore.

Now, we get to see one of the more competitive races the Central has had. That's saying something, because the last two division championships have been decided by a one-game playoff (White Sox over Twins in 2008, Twins over Tigers in 2009).

If all goes well in the Central this year, three and maybe four teams will be improved and perhaps worthy of at least playoff consideration.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
1. Minnesota
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Kansas City
4. Detroit
5. Cleveland

The ballpark. The Twins move into Target Field this season. It opens with a visit from the Red Sox April 12, and the state is excited. But are the Twins suited for a move outside? Statistically, the Metrodome tended to rate as a hitter's park, but not as overwhelmingly as a nickname like "Homerdome" might make you think. With that in mind, Target Field could end up being a bit of a hindrance to the Twins offense, but it will have the same effect on opponents. The newly-signed Joe Mauer leads the offense, which has some serious pop with the returning Justin Morneau, veteran free agent Jim Thome, and holdovers Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. Don't forget that shortstop J.J. Hardy -- brought in from the Brewers in the Carlos Gomez deal -- popped 50 home runs over 2007 and 2008 before falling off the map last year. He should be able to recapture some of that with his change of scenery.

The pitchers. No one has a more dynamic starting rotation than the White Sox. Jake Peavy looked good once healthy last year, and he is joined by the more-than-capable John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Mark Buehrle, who threw that perfect game last year, but didn't do much after it. Veteran Freddy Garcia serves as the fifth starter as long as he's healthy. If the Sox hit at all, which is a reasonable doubt about this team, they're dangerous. Can Carlos Quentin bounce back? Will Andruw Jones get it together? How good is Gordon Beckham? Will they get anything near their money's worth out of Alex Rios? There are a lot of questions about the offense, and it's tough to imagine the Sox will figure out all the answers.

The rest. Both Kansas City and Detroit stand to be better teams. The Royals were a darkhorse pick of many a year ago, only to flop badly and threaten 100 losses. They somehow finished the season with a 4.83 team ERA despite a full season out of Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. That won't happen again. What they need are Luke Hochevar and Gil Meche to hold up their end of the rotation, and Alex Gordon and Mike Aviles to get healthy and start hitting. They need more power out of Jose Guillen. They need continued development from Billy Butler. Detroit has a rotation -- led by Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello -- but questions with the offense. Is Austin Jackson ready? If not, the Tigers have a huge hole in the leadoff spot. That's a bad place to have a huge hole. Manny Acta takes over in Cleveland, and he should be able to boost player morale. A healthy Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner would probably boost a moribound offense. The team hopes Matt LaPorta -- the prize of the C.C. Sabathia deal two years ago -- can play every day and make an impact.

Twins Name A Committee

When the Minnesota Twins lost closer Joe Nathan for the season to Tommy John surgery, I linked a LaVelle E. Neal III blog post where he speculated the Twins would avoid a "closer by committee" situation.

It was well-reasoned. As LVIII noted, manager Ron Gardenhire tried to use a committee of setup men in 2008, and it was an epic fail. The thinking was he would avoid such a situation for his closer's role in 2010.

Not only that, but "closer by committee" sets a manager up for a lot of second-guessing. If he designates a closer, sticks with that guy, and gets reasonable results, he doesn't have to deal with "Hey idiot, why'd you use that guy in the ninth instead of this other guy?" questions from the media after ninth-inning implosions.

Instead, Gardenhire appears ready to go with the ol' committee.

"Same with our setup roles," Gardenhire said. "We plan on bouncing those guys all around because we think we have four, five guys who are very capable going into those roles ... unless something changes."

Gardenhire said someone could emerge from the group to fill Nathan's role, but it's a lot to ask, considering Nathan's 246 saves are the most in baseball since 2004.

"We're going to try just about anything and see how we get them out," Gardenhire said.

The Twins do have options. Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, and maybe someday Francisco Liriano (no, I'm not letting that go) could all have a shot at closing at one point or another. Of course, if someone gets hot, expect Gardenhire -- who's far from an idiot -- to ride that horse as long as he can.

While you have to like the gusto of such a plan, it does set the manager up for a long year of stupid second-guessing reporters.

You put yourself in that position, you run the risk of ending up like Hal McRae.



Now put that in your (bleep)in' pipe and smoke it.

Those Insane Mauer-Fielder Comparisons Likely to Continue

Joe Mauer was set to be a free agent after the 2010 season. The 27-year-old opted to instead sign an eight-year deal with the Minnesota Twins for $184 million.

He's a great hitter, having already won three American League batting titles. Last year, the power people promised we would see finally showed up, as Mauer socked 28 home runs in just over 600 at-bats.

More significantly, Mauer is a great hitter, who will only get better as he continues to harness his power, but he's also a great defensive player who has drawn raves for his ability to handle a pitching staff.

As most baseball fans know, Mauer is a highly valuable player because of his two-way -- so to speak -- ability. There simply aren't a lot of perennial .320 hitters who can hit for power and also play superb defense at that position.

While Twins fans celebrate Mauer's long-term contract, fans across the border are left to wonder how this will impact their soon-to-be free-agent star.

Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder will be a free agent after the 2011 season. He turns 27 that season, and since he has Scott Boras as an agent, it makes sense that the Brewers face an uphill battle if they want to buy Fielder's free agent years.

Fielder's power has never been in question. What's nice to see is that his defense has improved since he became a big-leaguer, and he finally has found a way to get on base when people aren't pitching to him.

His power? Well, yeah. Youngest to 50 home runs in a season. 141 RBI last year to go along with 46 home runs. He would have been the highest-profile player in the NL if not for that damn Pujols guy.

.299/.412/.602 is probably the peak of his offensive abilitites, and that's just fine. He's a Hall of Famer if he can find a way to keep doing that.

Their VORP numbers are almost identical (77.5 for Mauer, 75.6 for Fielder). Their star power in these cities is enormous.

So why is it so idiotic to think that they're worth similar contracts? It's something that you're going to read a lot about, and it's already kind of started.

The Brewers would like to keep Fielder off the free-agent market as well, and have an extra year to do so. Mauer, who was eligible for free agency after the 2010 season, signed an eight-year, $184 million deal Sunday to remain with the Twins.

That deal was very close to the eight-year, $180 million deal Mark Teixeira got from the New York Yankees as a free agent prior to the 2009 season. Teixeira’s agent is Scott Boras, who also represents Fielder.

Asked about Mauer’s deal, Fielder said, “It's great. It's beautiful. I'm very happy for him.

“Any time you see another player (get a big deal), you feel good for him. I just want the best for any player in the game.”

... Whether the Brewers would offer Fielder that kind of money remains to be seen. Melvin said talks were ongoing but declined to categorize them as both sides adhere to the agreement to keep details confidential.

For starters, the Twins signed Mauer out of desperation. Yes, he's good and deserving. But the Twins were desperate to buy his free agent years and pay him through his prime, because they knew they couldn't be taken seriously as a franchise if they didn't get his guy re-signed.

Meanwhile, the Brewers already outsmarted the system, buying star outfielder Ryan Braun out of his arbitration years and the start of his free agent clock. They would really like to re-sign Fielder, but they know they already have a fanbase and they don't have to worry about being the laughingstock of the sport if they let Fielder go.

Much less pressure, and that's great, because the Brewers don't have the backing of the 15th-largest media market in the country like the Twins do.

(Yes, 15th. But keep calling the Twins small market. That's accurate. You know what other baseball franchise is small market? The Dodgers. Just write it a few times, and morons will start believing it.)

Not only that, but what's harder to find? A great defensive catcher who can hit, or a fat first baseman who socks home runs, takes walks, and is around average defensively?

Mauer might not be a better overall player than Fielder, but suggesting Fielder is worth $23 million per year because Mauer got it is laughable. Fielder is worth more than the $120 million over seven years that Matt Holliday got from St. Louis, and he's worth less than what Mauer got.

Of course, what reality dictates and what Boras thinks are often two totally different things. Boras is well-known for getting everything he can possibly get for his clients, and it's unlikely he'll let Fielder settle for what he thinks is a deal even $1 below market value.

The Value of Joe Nathan

One of the enjoyable aspects of the internet and how it's affected the way we cover sports is the advent of statistical analysis.

This isn't about just the things -- OPS, primarily -- that somehow got labeled as Moneyball creations. However, that part of the business of baseball has changed the way many people view the game.

While "value" is still a tough thing for many baseball people to grasp, there are metrics on the topic. Baseball Prospectus has for some time published a stat called "Value Over Replacement-level Player," or VORP. VORP is designed to produce a calculation of how many runs a player produced (or prevented) over a cheap, bargain-basement type player employed at that same position.

I caught some heat with friends for arguing that the Joe Nathan injury wasn't all that disastrous for the Twins. My feeling is that Joe Mauer is a much more important player on this team, and truly someone they can't afford to lose, while Nathan -- while really good -- fills a role that is much more replaceable. The bottom line wasn't any disrespect toward Nathan. I think the world of the guy as a closer, but he's a ninth-inning guy.

Exactly how much of an impact can he have on the Twins' success?

Joe Posnanski has some numbers.

Here are Joe Nathan’s statistics against the other four teams in the American League Central:

Kansas City Royals: 3-0, 0.85 ERA, 35 saves, team hitting .144 against him.
Detroit Tigers: 2-1, 1.55 ERA, 30 saves, team hitting .153 against him.
Chicago White Sox: 3-2, 2.06 ERA, 24 saves, team hitting .151 against him.
Cleveland Indians: 3-1, 2.98 ERA, 26 saves, team hitting .201 against him.

Oy.

Granted, the AL Central stinks, but those are some serious numbers. Nathan must be a huge value to his team, right?

Well, then there's this, also pointed out by Posnanski.

In 2008, the Phillies were second in the league in runs scored, and fourth in ERA, and closer Brad Lidge was virtually unhittable – he saved 41 games in 41 opportunities. He finished fourth in the MVP balloting.

In 2009, the Phillies were first in the league in runs scored, sixth in ERA, and closer Brad Lidge was a fiasco – he was 0-8, with a catastrophic 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves. The Phillies won one more game in 2009 than they did in 2008.

So what's the answer?

My earlier argument for Francisco Liriano going into the bullpen was as much built on Liriano's arm troubles as it was Liriano's inherent value as a starting pitcher. However, as Patrick Reusse notes, the Twins are in potential trouble if Liriano can't start.

The difference between a closer like Joe Nathan and an average closer is 4.5 percent -- Nathan's 91 percent and an average of 86.5 for all pitchers trying to close a victory in the ninth inning.

The difference between the Liriano described by Gardenhire on Sunday and the gutsy (Brian) Duensing is a percentage that's incalculable.

This is an interesting point, if you assume it's either Liriano or Duensing for the fifth starter spot behind Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, and Carl Pavano. You also have to assume that the Twins can plug in anyone to Nathan's role and get a league-average performance.

But where are the Twins more likely to get that league-average performance? Out of a guy who pitches just one inning, or a guy who has to throw five or six consistently to be effective? If Duensing struggles, Liriano is the next-best candidate to start in that fifth spot. A healthy and effective Liriano -- hard to argue the point that he's looked good so far in the spring, for what that's worth -- is much better than Duensing, and he's much more helpful to this team starting than he is closing.

Liriano as a closer should be a last resort to salvage his career. Upon further reflection, it doesn't appear we're at that point yet.

Meanwhile, Nathan's VORP last season was 26.2. That ranked him third in baseball among relief pitchers. Baseball Prospectus -- in their 2010 annual -- projected a dropoff to a VORP of 16.1 this season. That would put him in the neighborhood with guys like Jose Valverde or Huston Street, who aren't bad relief pitchers but also aren't Joe Nathan.

Can the Twins just automatically count on whoever closes -- Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, or whatever they think of -- duplicating even a 16.1 VORP?

On the flip side, of the star players the Twins could lose, isn't this the best-case scenario? The Twins have a good starting rotation, plenty of options in the bullpen, including a lefty (Mijares) and a side-winder (Pat Neshek).

Nathan will be missed, but it could be argued that he was about to slip a bit in his production (BP's projections saw the slides from Dice-K and Josh Hamilton coming last year, so while their projections aren't gospel, they do good work.)

The Twins lived without Morneau last year for the final month, but it doesn't seem like a good long-term plan to have him on the shelf for that length of time again.

Meanwhile, Mauer's VORP last year, while often carrying the offense, was 77.5. His backup is Jose Morales, whose VORP was 3.7.

So, tell me again, who would you rather replace?

Twins Sign Joe Mauer Through 2018

The news Sunday about Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan sure wasn't very good. While Nathan has to undergo season-killing elbow surgery, the day of Twins news was not done, and it wasn't all bad.

A big priority for the front office this spring has been to get catcher Joe Mauer locked up on a long-term deal. He was scheduled to become a free agent after the 2010 season, and the possibility of Mauer leaving Minnesota was akin to armageddon for team officials.

After some rumors earlier in the spring proved to be unfounded, the deal was made official Sunday afternoon.

The great Joe Christensen has more.

Mauer, 26, will make $23 million each year from 2011 to 2018. The deal includes a full no-trade clause.

He is under contract for $12.5 million this year in the final year of a four-year, $33 million deal. Mauer, a three-time batting champion and reigning American League Most Valuable Player, could have become a free agent after the season.

The team plans to make the signing official on Monday at a press conference in Fort Myers, starting at 6 p.m.

Obviously, this is wonderful news for the Twins and their fans. Mauer is a cornerstone player, highly popular because 1) he's from the Twin Cities, and 2) he's really freaking good.

I've seen so many guys flame out from crouching too much in their careers, and I'm worried that Mauer won't last behind the plate for the full eight years of this deal. However, even if the team has to eventually move him to first base, third base, the outfield, or designated hitter, he will be worth nearly every penny because he will not stop being a very popular part of the Twins franchise.

On a day that started with awful -- though not totally unexpected -- news on Nathan, it ends with reason for the team's supporters to celebrate. With a new ballpark almost ready to open, Twins fans should be in full celebration mode until Opening Day.

Joe Nathan Going Under Knife

A test of Joe Nathan's bum elbow Sunday didn't go very well.

After a light throwing session in Florida, Nathan told reporters he has decided to undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. The procedure will take care of Nathan's torn ulnar collateral ligament, but it requires Nathan sit out the 2010 season, the team's first at new Target Field.

Nathan said he hopes to return for the 2011 season, hopefully by Opening Day.

The typical Tommy John recovery is 12-18 months, so Nathan is obviously hoping to get on the low end of that scale.

"Didn’t go like we hoped," Nathan said. "We knew it was a long shot, but what this did do is clear my head. Definitely was no gray area. Definitely was on the black side, where it didn’t go as well as we like, and we know now we’re going to have to go in and get some surgery done, get this thing fixed up." Nathan said he will have the surgery as soon as possible, though he hasn't decided where or when. The estimated recovery time is 12 months, and Nathan said he's "very confident" he'll be ready for Opening Day next year. "Any time you’re going to be out for the season -- but especially the timing of this, with this ballclub, this new stadium, the excitement -- it’s definitely tough," Nathan said. "But right now I’ve got to take care of myself and get myself ready for next year."

The Twins can now move on to the next phase of this process. While Nathan gets himself taken care of by trained medical professionals, general manager Bill Smith and manager Ron Gardenhire have to find a closer.

It's not likely that the Twins will go without a designated closer, and it's apparently not likely that they'll convert Francisco Liriano to the job, since it appears they're getting him ready to be in the starting rotation.

Even if you think this is dumb (and you have to at least think they're playing with fire by letting a guy with arm problems in his past who likes to throw too many sliders continue on as a starting pitcher), at least the organization is willing to make decisions.

Twins Suffer Blow With Nathan Injury

Spring training has just started, but a contending team already has to deal with a major loss.

Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan has been diagnosed with an ulnar collateral ligament tear in his right elbow. The injury will likely require surgery, and if you didn't pick up on it by the terms "ulnar" and "elbow," that's the Tommy John surgery that Nathan is staring at.

During a quick press gathering Tuesday morning, the team confirmed the results of an MRI on Nathan, who left Saturday's game with elbow discomfort.

What they didn't do was rule Nathan done for the 2010 season, and they also didn't speculate much on potential replacements.

General manager Bill Smith tried to preach some degree of calm on the matter.

"We're going to send the test results off and get a second opinion,'' he said. "We probably won't have a final decision on where we're going for a week or two. Let it calm down, get some of the soreness out and re-evaluate from there.''

Of course, it seems kind of ridiculous to ask people to be calm over a major injury to a star player on a team not exactly littered with star players.

Plus, let's face it: Nathan isn't pitching this season. The Twins can say all the right things about second opinions and Nathan will talk about trying to pitch through the pain. But if this diagnosis is at all accurate, he's going under the knife, and he will miss virtually the entire season, if not the whole thing.

La Velle E. Neal asks the obvious question: What now?

Well, the Twins aren't void of options. Matt Guerrier has been very good out of the pen for a couple years now, though his .211 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year indicates the possibility he'll regress, and ten home runs allowed in 76 innings doesn't scream "PUT ME IN FOR THE NINTH INNING!" to me.

Jon Rauch had 17 saves with Washington in 2008, and he can be a tough pitcher to face in short doses because of the arm angles he uses out of a six-eleven frame. Rauch's closer experience makes him a real good candidate to get a shot at closing.

Jesse Crain was not reliable last year, while Pat Neshek was hurt. Both might be better guys for seventh- and eighth-inning roles, but manager Ron Gardenhire will give them a look.

The darkhorse of the bunch is someone Neal didn't mention.

Francisco Liriano.

He has no confidence in his arm anymore. He is likely shot as a starter, but the reality is that the former Tommy John surgery undergoer guy might be best-suited for short relief. He was awesome for the Twins before he was hurt, and he does have serious stuff. It's just not worked out getting him back in the starting rotation.

Is he better off working as a closer, where he can blow away guys for an inning at a time, pitch probably at least 100 fewer innings in a full season, and perhaps pitch with more confidence and control?

It can't hurt.

If it doesn't work out, the Twins still have depth in their bullpen, and they have guys who could be good in Nathan's role. However, this could be the best way to salvage Liriano's career before he goes from "promising lights-out starter" to "unfortunate Tommy John casualty" with no hope of recovery.