I didn't think Wisconsin had the chops to post that "best-case" 11-1 record last year. In the end, I was dead wrong about the Badgers.
They coughed up an early road game against Michigan State, but rebounded nicely to finish 11-1 in the regular season before losing to TCU in the Rose Bowl.
To be blunt, it was a much better season than anyone probably could have expected or asked for, especially given that the injury bug never really left this team.
With Scott Tolzien gone, along with John Clay, Lance Kendricks, and Gabe Carimi, the offense is getting a makeover at spring practice. One of the key pieces of that makeover, however, is quarterback Curt Phillips, who has undergone two ACL surgeries already, and apparently had another procedure recently.
"It shouldn't be anything major, hopefully," Badgers coach Bret Bielema told local reporters following Thursday's practice. "Kind of just deal with the cards after they are there. If it's something they can take care of and clean up, hopefully, he'll be back full-time in June."
It might not be a huge setback, but Phillips was already facing an uphill climb to wrestle the starting job away from Jon Budmayr. With only freshmen on the depth chart, it's key for Phillips to get healthy and stay there, but he may never be the same quarterback again.
Phillips -- more than any potential UW starter since Brooks Bollinger -- really likes to use his athleticism to make plays. Lately, the Badgers have used pocket quarterbacks like Jim Sorgi, John Stocco, and Tolzien to run the offense (the one athlete they had during this recent run was Tyler Donovan, whose competitiveness was greatly appreciated, but Phillips at 100 percent is probably a better athlete).
That's not to say either style of quarterback really gave Wisconsin any more or less success. However, they haven't started a redshirt freshman at quarterback in a long time, and having some experience pushing or backing up Budmayr -- whichever it is -- could be a big thing for his development and the Badgers' chances of having a good season to follow up last year's stellar one.
A horrifying hit took center stage on a busy night in the NHL Tuesday.
The Boston-Montreal rivalry heated up with a high-scoring, fight-filled affair earlier this season. While Tuesday's game was relatively tame, both in terms of goals scored and fights happening, there was an awful incident towards the end of the second period that will lead to plenty of discussion, debate, yelling, and probably a suspension for one of the league's more visible players.
Bruins captain Zdeno Chara is likely going to be suspended after this hit on Montreal forward Max Pacioretty (video from NHL.com via Puck Daddy).
Chara received a five-minute major for interference and a game misconduct, which simply postponed his inevitable fight for the teams' next meeting, which is Mar. 24 in Boston.
Pacioretty was stretchered off the ice, but was said to have movement of his extremities when he left the arena. That's good, though we don't know the extent of any injuries he may have suffered.
In the meantime, the NHL has a tough decision to make. Boston's next game is Thursday against Buffalo, and you can bet on the big defenseman not being eligible to play.
Let's get something out of the way. Only an idiot would think Zdeno Chara was trying to send Max Pacioretty to the hospital. I know a few people out there -- generally not fans of the Boston Bruins -- probably think Chara is a dirty player, one who takes the occasional liberties and sometimes hits guys in the head.
Of course, Chara is a physical player, which by definition means he will sometimes take liberties with guys. He's almost always the biggest guy on the ice, so he's almost always hitting players who are smaller. And when you're tall with long arms and bigger than everyone else, you have to be ultra-careful at all times to make sure you aren't hitting guys high, using your elbows, or looking like a dirty player.
Frankly, I think given everything, Chara does a pretty damn good job of being effective and physical without constantly crossing the line or even really making it look like he does.
He wasn't trying to knock Pacioretty out. He was trying to knock him out of the play. That simple.
However, Chara should (and probably will) be held responsible for the end result.
If you look at how the game of hockey rules on hits these days, it typically doesn't matter if a player puts himself in a vulnerable position. It matters that the player is in a vulnerable position. Here is an example of a hit where the aggressor was not in any way trying to injure the player he hit, and had virtually no control over the final circumstances.
Brad Malone made no attempt to break Jesse Martin's neck. He was trying to finish his check, but Martin lost the puck and put his head down to find it. Combine those two things, and you have a near-tragic outcome that was awful for everyone.
Honestly, this is probably a poor example, because you could argue that if either of these two hits was malicious in any way, it was Chara's.
As noted by Michael Russo, it was a "reckless, needless hit, no puck ... I don't buy he didn't know where he was."
Chara might not have known he was that close to the partition/turnbuckle/whatever you want to call it, but part of his duty as an aggressive player is to 1) know who/what he is hitting, and 2) know where he is hitting that player.
Even if he can successfully argue that he had no idea the partition/turnbuckle that is in every NHL arena in the same spot happened to be near where he was hitting Pacioretty, the league will tell him it's his duty to have at least a basic understanding of what will happen upon contact with an opposing player.
To be blunt, this understanding is what separates players like Zdeno Chara from players like Trevor Gillies. Chara avoids suspensions for his hits because he typically avoids the kind of hit he threw Tuesday. Gillies can't avoid suspensions because he's not a hockey player and has no inkling of an understanding of player safety.
If you have a guy whose head is down and back is to the boards, you have to understand that hitting that player could send him head-first into the boards. That might have been a cool visual in 1991, but it doesn't work anymore.
If you don't have that understanding, you either avoid making the hit or prepare to pay the price for the hit. And pray you don't break someone's neck in the process.
I'm not going to call Chara a dirty player, because I don't believe he is. But he's smarter than he showed Tuesday, and the league will make sure he understands that going forward.
The San Jose Sharks have placed goalie Antero Niittymaki on injured reserve.
Word is that he was injured (lower body, no specifics in yet) during Thursday's morning skate in Vancouver, where the Sharks played the Canucks on Thursday.
The Sharks didn't have time to bring anyone up from the minors or sign a free agent, so they plucked a goalie in from the University of British Columbia on an amateur tryout.
A player on injured reserve has to sit out at least seven days, so San Jose has to find another goalie to at least back up Antti Niemi while Niittymaki is out.
Could this be former UMD Bulldog star Alex Stalock's shot?
Stalock is the No. 1 goalie at AHL Worcester, and he has yet to see any time in the NHL. He set the rookie record for wins by a goalie last year, and he has been playing well after a relatively slow start to this season.
Certainly, Bulldog fans are rooting for this outcome. We'll keep you posted.
NOTE: The Sharks told FanHouse colleague A.J. Perez that they wouldn't make a decision until Friday morning at the earliest. The team's next game is Saturday night at home against Minnesota.
Player safety has become a hot-button issue in the NFL, as well as the NHL. For football fans, the league's decision to make some changes to how illegal hits are dealt with -- as well as the general definition of an illegal hit -- has brought up some questions about the game's future.
While many of the people crowing about the league trying to take hitting out of the sport are just misguided, and the thought that the NFL is "wussifying" football is generally cringe-inducing, reality is that the league is studying ways to make football less dangerous.
There is an acknowledgment from most proponents of these safety measures that nothing the league does will fully prevent the possibility of players being stretchered off fields with potentially serious injuries. The game is just too fast and too violent to do that.
Instead, the NFL is spending their time and energy trying to make things as safe as possible.
... as part of the league’s ongoing effort to enhance player safety, the NFL will consider the possibility of widening the field and the hash marks. The thinking is that opening up the field could make the game safer.
While player safety continues to be a noble and important cause, it's not likely that this measure will be passed without resistance.
As Mike Florio notes on PFT, we've already heard thoughts from a Pro Bowl safety that indicate this isn't a terribly good idea.
Steelers safety Troy Polamalu, who gradually become the most outspoken player against the league’s stance on illegal hits, is now blaming the shift to wide-open offense.
“The game has evolved in a sense that, of course, people are bigger and faster now, but it’s also evolved in a sense that it’s not eight guys in the box every down and two guys in the backfield,” Polamalu said, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “When you start spreading teams out and you start getting space and distance — and you’ve got to get that burst to make that hit — that’s why you’re seeing a lot more hits than normal. It’s because of the way offenses are playing.”
Polamalu might be wrong to go after the commissioner like he has over the league's stance, but his point is an interesting one.
The fact that you have more room for guys to run around isn't going to make the game safer. Even if it does, that improved safety will only last until the players become faster and more capable of covering that extra ground quicker. Once that happens, the game will become even more violent and dangerous than it is right now.
Not only will widening the field not make the game safer, but it won't make the game any better. As proven in college hockey, a bigger playing surface doesn't always equate to more exciting or wide-open action. The logic in hockey is a bit different, because by widening the playing surface, you're taking players (and, as a result, the puck) farther away from the goal. But in the end, making a football field wider doesn't mean you're going to make football better.
Just ask the CFL. After all, if the wider field meant people would like the product more, they'd probably have more than eight teams in the CFL, and they'd probably have more than a crappy TV deal on NFL Network in the United States.
Just wanted to throw up a quick update on Denver senior forward Jesse Martin, who was seriously injured on a hit by North Dakota senior Brad Malone a couple weeks ago. Malone, as you may know, had a hard time dealing with what happened, and Martin actually called him to try to ease his mind.
All around, it's been great to see, because Malone certainly didn't mean to do what he did. While Martin was undoubtedly the victim here, no matter how you slice it, Malone also had to recover in a way. Watching him play Saturday against UMD, it didn't appear he was holding back much.
Malone was suspended for one game, missing Friday's win over UMD, while Martin may never play hockey again (the exact prognosis is still uncertain).
Monday, Martin underwent surgery in the Twin Cities to stabilize multiple C2 neck fractures. His father reports that the operation went well and Martin has a good chance to live a "real good lifestyle."
For nearly a season and a half, Packer fans watched helplessly as Brett Favre helped the Vikings win games and put themselves in a position to win a championship.
There were, sure, a few gut punches along the way, including in the NFC Championship. However, Favre played great in 2009 and left little doubt -- despite his self-produced offseason drama -- that he would return in 2010.
Of course, that doesn't mean that his return was a good idea.
In fact, it seems like this has been the biggest mistake Favre's made since he hit "send" on his cell phone in 2008.
(Pause for laughter. Or groans. Or for you to click off this site.)
Favre has 14 turnovers, contributing (often directly) to 51 points for the opposition and a lot of pressure on his team's very-good defense. Favre's passer rating is 30th out of 33 quarterbacks currently with enough throws to qualify for the passing title.
That's 30th-best, by the way.
For head coach Brad Childress, who has prided himself on getting greatsolidvery gooddecent mediocre play out of his quarterbacks during his time at Minnesota, this has to be eating him alive. He can't even get Favre to be an offensive caretaker, because the running game -- while led by a total stud in Adrian Peterson -- isn't good enough to be a one-dimensional offense.
With Favre possibly sidelined (chuckle) by a foot/ankle injury, there is so much speculation about his status for Sunday that you could probably get your fill of it while watching MSNBC. But while idiots like me continue to laugh at the notion that Favre won't play, there are some who think it's at least a possibility.
Will keep saying it. Childress, not foot, is Favre's biggest obstacle.
Seifert knows more than I do. In the end, I'm willing to take the word of those who cover the team on a regular basis over my hunches.
But this is freaking Brett Favre. He can't just sit, right?
Right?
There's acrimony between Favre and Childress. There are real issues in that relationship. As the kids say, it's complicated. Don't discount Childress' desire to put his stamp on this team and exhibit control over the players. He might not get along great with Favre, but he wants to win, and if he feels that a gimpy Favre doesn't give his team the best chance to win, he will bench the streak.
While it shouldn't be up to Favre, most people think it is. The right thing for him to do is sit.
And he can't wait to sit until the Vikings fall out of serious playoff contention. He is no longer his team's best chance to win, and it's too bad he fails to recognize it. I think Childress knows it, but he doesn't have the guts/political power necessary to make this decision.
Simply put: Unless Favre's left foot falls off before Sunday, or Favre himself decides that he can't go, Favre will start.
And while only time will tell if it's the right move, there doesn't appear to be much chance that it will end well for Favre.
As you know by now, the Green Bay Packers are going to be without starting running back Ryan Grant for the rest of the season. He was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, and now Brandon Jackson is the Packers' starting running back.
Be alarmed, Packer fans. Be alarmed. Jackson might be a hair faster than Grant, but it's not much, and it doesn't make up for the fact that he's not as stout and he lacks the vision and sense required for the zone running game Green Bay employs.
Apparently, so does every running back on Earth that you've heard of.
Instead of going after a name guy -- Willie Parker and J.J. Arrington are free agents, while Marshawn Lynch is widely thought to be available for the right price in a trade -- general manager Ted Thompson is going with Jackson as his starter, and some guy named Dimitri Nance as the backup. Nance was on the Atlanta Falcons practice squad and is a rookie. You've probably never heard of him, and that's okay.
Neither has anybody else, except Thompson, apparently.
I think Thompson has done a pretty good job for the most part, but there are areas he sorely lacks in. One of them is the willingness to make a deal to improve this team on the fly. He's content to promote, rather than make trades and potentially give up draft picks.
His stubborn insistence on keeping his own high picks around has led to the Packers' lack of depth on the defensive line (Justin Harrell just couldn't be let go under any circumstances), and has them holding a $4 million per year linebacker on the sideline (A.J. Hawk).
Even with his star quarterback trying to get Lynch to Green Bay, you know Thompson won't do it. This isn't his style. He'd rather roll the dice on some kid from a practice squad ... for better or for worse.
What it means -- at least in the short-term -- is that Green Bay is stuck with Jackson. The fourth-year pro is still short of 700 yards in his NFL career. He's a better receiver than Grant, which might play a factor in how the offense is run by Mike McCarthy.
We're totally unsure how they'll use Nance. He's a tough, powerful back who could be helpful in goal-line situations, but Jackson stands to get the bulk of the work, and we don't know how he'll handle that, given that it has yet to happen in the NFL.
In the end, the season will be defined by a number of factors, most notably how the offensive line plays and if the pass defense improves. Grant's injury adds a new dimension to the season, though. Now, we get to find out exactly how valuable a piece Grant was to the offense ... and how wise Thompson was to draft Jackson in 2007. Early returns are less than overwhelming, but now Jackson really gets a shot at proving himself on the big stage.
If he flops, Nance sure isn't going to save this team ... no matter how much of a diamond in the rough he may be.
It's been over three years. In that amount of time, so much has changed. Not just in baseball, but in the world. New president, new problems, new fads, new technology.
For Brewers pitcher Chris Capuano, enough was enough.
Capuano has dealt with two Tommy John surgeries on his left elbow. There was a time where people wondered if he would ever pitch again.
Manager Ken Macha said Sunday that Capuano would be limited to under 70 pitches in this start, and he told the media he would be thrilled to get four innings out of Capuano. The plan was for Carlos Villanueva, a former starter, to pitch into the seventh, thus lessening the strain on an oft-overworked bullpen.
Capuano did his manager one better, getting through five innings while throwing 65 pitches. From there, a Rickie Weeks two-run home run gave the Brewers a 3-1 lead in the sixth, and Capuano was in line for the win.
Afterward, it was clear how important this was to Capuano and his teammates. After all, it's hard to get around a streak of 30 major-league appearances without a win.
“I surprised myself with how much I was aware of it,” said Capuano, who got a new perspective on winning and losing when he wasn’t sure he’d ever pitch again.
... When he was done, Capuano retreated to the clubhouse to fetch his iPod, trying to soothe his anxiety with some relaxing music as he watched a succession of four relievers cover the final four innings. Things got a bit tense in the ninth when the Pirates put two on with no outs against closer John Axford, who responded by striking out Brewer-killer Ryan Doumit and Ryan Church before retiring Ronny Cedeno on a grounder to second.
Axford, who converted his 12th save in 12 chances, said the relievers were aware of what was at stake for Capuano after Rickie Weeks’ two-run homer in the top of the sixth snapped a 1-1 tie.
“When we went ahead, 3-1, we said, ‘Let’s do this for ‘Cappy,’” said Axford. “When you look at what he’s gone through, for Cappy to persevere is a testament to him. It’s unbelievable. It really is.”
... “It’s going to be pretty tough to get me down tonight,” said Capuano, whose only other start came on June 3 in Florida after returning to the majors. “That was a really nice gift from the team.
“I have a long view with baseball now. Wins and losses become a lot less important when you’re faced with ‘Am I going to pitch again?’ It puts all that stuff in perspective. I’m just really happy to get (a victory) with the Brewers.”
It's a nice story during what has been a dreadful season for Milwaukee. Capuano might not do much else this season, but he's proven he can win at this level.
More importantly, he showed great heart and moxie just making it back to the bigs after all the adversity he's experienced.
In April, the New York Giants selected a safety named Chad Jones in the third round of the 2010 NFL Draft. Jones, out of LSU, signed a four-year contract in June, a few days before being injured in a horrific car accident.
As a result of his injuries, Jones' left leg was in peril, but it appears doctors were able to save it.
This initial surgery may have saved the leg, but Jones has quite the mountain to climb to recover from his injuries. His family is unsure if he will ever get to play football again, and they really aren't worried about that. Instead, they're focused on getting him well and helping him through the surgeries and recovery he has remaining.
Even though Jones has never played a game for the Giants (and he may never get the chance), the team has made the right choice in handling his medical situation.
"Nobody has said whether Chad will play again or not," Al Jones, Chad's father, said from New York, where Chad was transported Tuesday for treatment at the Hospital for Special Surgery, an orthopedic specialty facility. "We're not even asking that question right now.
"Things are going well. They have shown that they are taking good care of Chad while they're doing what they need to do to make sure their investment is protected."
Obviously, the Giants know they have an investment to protect, because they could have cut the cord over a non-football injury like this. Doing so would have meant a minimal expense to the organization, but would have subjected them to outcries about how they weren't doing the right thing.
While they could still settle on his contract and release Jones, the organization should be applauded for committing to take care of Jones' medical expenses, which will be out of this world.
It also means Jones will get the best medical care money can buy, something that should help him feel more secure about his future, whether that be as a football player, baseball player (he's accomplished in that sport, too), or as just a guy trying to lead a "normal life."
It happens all the time. A person suffers a major injury, we find a way to blame someone or something, and we clamor for a rules change.
These campaigns are always well-intentioned, but they aren't always well-executed.
Such is the case with two recent movements in sports. Both are the result of injuries, both have some serious pros behind them, and both are bad ideas.
We'll start in college hockey, where there is a call for half-shields in place of full face masks on players.
Why? Well, there are some who feel the players would be safer if they didn't wear full protection over their faces. The theory is that if everyone wore a half-shield, they'd magically stop getting sticks up and hitting people in the head.
Of course, if you've watched 20 NHL games in your life, you know this is stupid.
This study lumped partial face protection and full face protection in together, though the evidence shows a partial face shield is closer to having no protection than full protection. The number of concussions in each case wasn't statistically significant -- 4 with none, 5 with half, 2 with full --but the real difference is in facial injuries. 52 injuries with no face protection, 45 with half protection, and only 16 with full protection.
That theory I was talking about? It's rooted in emotion. While that isn't always a bad thing, it's not a good thing in this case.
Instead of protecting college hockey players, we're going to open them up to more serious injuries. If the half-shield plan passes, it will only last until an unsuspecting Yale defender is turned into Ian Laperriere.
Do we need to let that happen to someone? Why bother?
It's not a safety improvement. It's an emotional reaction to headshots, but what the people having the reaction don't realize is that those headshots are happening in the NHL, where the players wear half-shields. Guys still get high-sticked in the face, they still get hit in the face by elbows, and they still block shots and passes with their faces. In none of those cases will a half-shield offer more protection than a full face mask.
If you want the college game to be bloodier, vote for this!
Elsewhere in sports, emotions are taking over in California. There, a young pitcher's life flashed before his eyes, when a batted ball came flying at him faster than he could protect himself from it.
Assembly Bill 7, which will be considered this week by the state senate, would impose a two-year moratorium on the use of metal bats in high school baseball in California.
... Sandberg's team and the entire league voluntarily switched to wood bats after the accident. Community members were selling "Got Wood?" T-shirts, with the proceeds going to help pay Sandberg's medical bills. California assemblyman Jared Huffman, who represents Marin County, authored the bill to ban the metal bats just weeks after the March 11 accident.
Of course, it's not that simple.
Mike May, spokesman for the Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association, said he's been devoting almost all of his time to defending the metal bat since Sandberg's accident. May has been plying lawmakers and members of the media with one study after another to show that accidents like Sandberg's are no more likely with metal bats than with wooden ones.
"We just want the decision in California to be made on facts and data, not emotions," May told FanHouse.
The metal bats of today are safer than those of a few years ago, May said, because of standards in place since 2003 to regulate the Ball Exit Speed Ratio (BESR) off metal bats.
"Many people don't realize that the baseball bat of 1980 can't be used today," May said. "People think bats have gotten more juiced up, and frankly it's the opposite."
May also said that the NCAA is adopting a standard to further weaken metal bats in 2011, with the National Federation of State High School Associations adopting it in 2012.
The next step is to engineer the metal bats to have a smaller sweet spot, but the science is there.
Meanwhile, a move to ban wooden bats makes the sport more expensive, at a time when we don't need to be doing that ... in any sport. The science is questionable, the change would be costly, and it's a story (rightfully) full of emotion.
(Give the California Legislature credit. This proposed ban is only for two years. It's not meant to be permanent, even if that's what would eventually happen.)
No one wants to see a kid debilitated by an injury, but we have better things to legislate than things that will not necessarily improve safety in sports.
Letting emotion get in the way of sound decisions based on science is not good. It doesn't help anyone, and it leaves us wondering in ten years what the hell we were thinking.
One of college hockey's best defensemen is returning.
North Dakota's season could have been derailed in November, when star defenseman Chay Genoway went down with a concussion. The hit was the source of much controversy in the league, and it led to the first of a handful of supplementary discipline decisions in the WCHA.
If you forgot what happened, here is the shot by Aaron Marvin that sent Genoway to the shelf.
To this day, I cannot figure out how this penalty call got so badly botched ... both on the ice and by the league after the fact.
Genoway didn't play again. Despite losing an All-American blue-liner, the Fighting Sioux finished fourth in the final league standings, and they won the WCHA Final Five.
Genoway had ten points in nine games before Marvin ended his season, and he will immediately take the role of leader for this coming season's Fighting Sioux team. Considering that Chris VandeVelde and Darcy Zajac were the only notable losses, it makes sense that the Sioux will be a preseason favorite in the WCHA, as well as nationally.
If Genoway can return at full strength -- and even the staunchest of rivals has to be rooting for him to make a comeback given what he's gone through up to this point -- he makes North Dakota's defense more experienced and more potent offensively.
Imagine a power play quarterbacked by Genoway, with Danny Kristo at the other point, and guys like Jason Gregoire, Brett Hextall, and Matt Frattin up front.
Even on paper, it looks incredibly dangerous.
More importantly, good for Chay. This is a huge step for him, and let's hope to see him on the ice at full strength in October.
It's also a win for college hockey. No, Genoway was probably never a serious candidate to leave school early because of his size, but he's an elite player who makes the sport better with his presence. This is a comeback story college hockey should embrace as we get closer to the fall.
When the Minnesota Twins lost closer Joe Nathan for the season to Tommy John surgery, I linkeda LaVelle E. Neal III blog post where he speculated the Twins would avoid a "closer by committee" situation.
It was well-reasoned. As LVIII noted, manager Ron Gardenhire tried to use a committee of setup men in 2008, and it was an epic fail. The thinking was he would avoid such a situation for his closer's role in 2010.
Not only that, but "closer by committee" sets a manager up for a lot of second-guessing. If he designates a closer, sticks with that guy, and gets reasonable results, he doesn't have to deal with "Hey idiot, why'd you use that guy in the ninth instead of this other guy?" questions from the media after ninth-inning implosions.
"Same with our setup roles," Gardenhire said. "We plan on bouncing those guys all around because we think we have four, five guys who are very capable going into those roles ... unless something changes."
Gardenhire said someone could emerge from the group to fill Nathan's role, but it's a lot to ask, considering Nathan's 246 saves are the most in baseball since 2004.
"We're going to try just about anything and see how we get them out," Gardenhire said.
The Twins do have options. Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, and maybe someday Francisco Liriano (no, I'm not letting that go) could all have a shot at closing at one point or another. Of course, if someone gets hot, expect Gardenhire -- who's far from an idiot -- to ride that horse as long as he can.
While you have to like the gusto of such a plan, it does set the manager up for a long year of stupid second-guessing reporters.
You put yourself in that position, you run the risk of ending up like Hal McRae.
Now put that in your (bleep)in' pipe and smoke it.
One of the enjoyable aspects of the internet and how it's affected the way we cover sports is the advent of statistical analysis.
This isn't about just the things -- OPS, primarily -- that somehow got labeled as Moneyball creations. However, that part of the business of baseball has changed the way many people view the game.
While "value" is still a tough thing for many baseball people to grasp, there are metrics on the topic. Baseball Prospectus has for some time published a stat called "Value Over Replacement-level Player," or VORP. VORP is designed to produce a calculation of how many runs a player produced (or prevented) over a cheap, bargain-basement type player employed at that same position.
I caught some heat with friends for arguing that the Joe Nathan injury wasn't all that disastrous for the Twins. My feeling is that Joe Mauer is a much more important player on this team, and truly someone they can't afford to lose, while Nathan -- while really good -- fills a role that is much more replaceable. The bottom line wasn't any disrespect toward Nathan. I think the world of the guy as a closer, but he's a ninth-inning guy.
Exactly how much of an impact can he have on the Twins' success?
Here are Joe Nathan’s statistics against the other four teams in the American League Central:
Kansas City Royals: 3-0, 0.85 ERA, 35 saves, team hitting .144 against him. Detroit Tigers: 2-1, 1.55 ERA, 30 saves, team hitting .153 against him. Chicago White Sox: 3-2, 2.06 ERA, 24 saves, team hitting .151 against him. Cleveland Indians: 3-1, 2.98 ERA, 26 saves, team hitting .201 against him.
Oy.
Granted, the AL Central stinks, but those are some serious numbers. Nathan must be a huge value to his team, right?
Well, then there's this, also pointed out by Posnanski.
In 2008, the Phillies were second in the league in runs scored, and fourth in ERA, and closer Brad Lidge was virtually unhittable – he saved 41 games in 41 opportunities. He finished fourth in the MVP balloting.
In 2009, the Phillies were first in the league in runs scored, sixth in ERA, and closer Brad Lidge was a fiasco – he was 0-8, with a catastrophic 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves.The Phillies won one more game in 2009 than they did in 2008.
So what's the answer?
My earlier argument for Francisco Liriano going into the bullpen was as much built on Liriano's arm troubles as it was Liriano's inherent value as a starting pitcher. However, as Patrick Reusse notes, the Twins are in potential trouble if Liriano can't start.
The difference between a closer like Joe Nathan and an average closer is 4.5 percent -- Nathan's 91 percent and an average of 86.5 for all pitchers trying to close a victory in the ninth inning.
The difference between the Liriano described by Gardenhire on Sunday and the gutsy (Brian) Duensing is a percentage that's incalculable.
This is an interesting point, if you assume it's either Liriano or Duensing for the fifth starter spot behind Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, and Carl Pavano. You also have to assume that the Twins can plug in anyone to Nathan's role and get a league-average performance.
But where are the Twins more likely to get that league-average performance? Out of a guy who pitches just one inning, or a guy who has to throw five or six consistently to be effective? If Duensing struggles, Liriano is the next-best candidate to start in that fifth spot. A healthy and effective Liriano -- hard to argue the point that he's looked good so far in the spring, for what that's worth -- is much better than Duensing, and he's much more helpful to this team starting than he is closing.
Liriano as a closer should be a last resort to salvage his career. Upon further reflection, it doesn't appear we're at that point yet.
Meanwhile, Nathan's VORP last season was 26.2. That ranked him third in baseball among relief pitchers. Baseball Prospectus -- in their 2010 annual -- projected a dropoff to a VORP of 16.1 this season. That would put him in the neighborhood with guys like Jose Valverde or Huston Street, who aren't bad relief pitchers but also aren't Joe Nathan.
Can the Twins just automatically count on whoever closes -- Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, or whatever they think of -- duplicating even a 16.1 VORP?
On the flip side, of the star players the Twins could lose, isn't this the best-case scenario? The Twins have a good starting rotation, plenty of options in the bullpen, including a lefty (Mijares) and a side-winder (Pat Neshek).
Nathan will be missed, but it could be argued that he was about to slip a bit in his production (BP's projections saw the slides from Dice-K and Josh Hamilton coming last year, so while their projections aren't gospel, they do good work.)
The Twins lived without Morneau last year for the final month, but it doesn't seem like a good long-term plan to have him on the shelf for that length of time again.
Meanwhile, Mauer's VORP last year, while often carrying the offense, was 77.5. His backup is Jose Morales, whose VORP was 3.7.
After a light throwing session in Florida, Nathan told reporters he has decided to undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. The procedure will take care of Nathan's torn ulnar collateral ligament, but it requires Nathan sit out the 2010 season, the team's first at new Target Field.
Nathan said he hopes to return for the 2011 season, hopefully by Opening Day.
The typical Tommy John recovery is 12-18 months, so Nathan is obviously hoping to get on the low end of that scale.
"Didn’t go like we hoped," Nathan said. "We knew it was a long shot, but what this did do is clear my head. Definitely was no gray area. Definitely was on the black side, where it didn’t go as well as we like, and we know now we’re going to have to go in and get some surgery done, get this thing fixed up."Nathan said he will have the surgery as soon as possible, though he hasn't decided where or when. The estimated recovery time is 12 months, and Nathan said he's "very confident" he'll be ready for Opening Day next year."Any time you’re going to be out for the season -- but especially the timing of this, with this ballclub, this new stadium, the excitement -- it’s definitely tough," Nathan said. "But right now I’ve got to take care of myself and get myself ready for next year."
The Twins can now move on to the next phase of this process. While Nathan gets himself taken care of by trained medical professionals, general manager Bill Smith and manager Ron Gardenhire have to find a closer.
It's not likely that the Twins will go without a designated closer, and it's apparently not likely that they'll convert Francisco Liriano to the job, since it appears they're getting him ready to be in the starting rotation.
Even if you think this is dumb (and you have to at least think they're playing with fire by letting a guy with arm problems in his past who likes to throw too many sliders continue on as a starting pitcher), at least the organization is willing to make decisions.
Spring training has just started, but a contending team already has to deal with a major loss.
Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan has been diagnosed with an ulnar collateral ligament tear in his right elbow. The injury will likely require surgery, and if you didn't pick up on it by the terms "ulnar" and "elbow," that's the Tommy John surgery that Nathan is staring at.
During a quick press gathering Tuesday morning, the team confirmed the results of an MRI on Nathan, who left Saturday's game with elbow discomfort.
What they didn't do was rule Nathan done for the 2010 season, and they also didn't speculate much on potential replacements.
General manager Bill Smith tried to preach some degree of calm on the matter.
"We're going to send the test results off and get a second opinion,'' he said. "We probably won't have a final decision on where we're going for a week or two. Let it calm down, get some of the soreness out and re-evaluate from there.''
Of course, it seems kind of ridiculous to ask people to be calm over a major injury to a star player on a team not exactly littered with star players.
Plus, let's face it: Nathan isn't pitching this season. The Twins can say all the right things about second opinions and Nathan will talk about trying to pitch through the pain. But if this diagnosis is at all accurate, he's going under the knife, and he will miss virtually the entire season, if not the whole thing.
Well, the Twins aren't void of options. Matt Guerrier has been very good out of the pen for a couple years now, though his .211 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year indicates the possibility he'll regress, and ten home runs allowed in 76 innings doesn't scream "PUT ME IN FOR THE NINTH INNING!" to me.
Jon Rauch had 17 saves with Washington in 2008, and he can be a tough pitcher to face in short doses because of the arm angles he uses out of a six-eleven frame. Rauch's closer experience makes him a real good candidate to get a shot at closing.
Jesse Crain was not reliable last year, while Pat Neshek was hurt. Both might be better guys for seventh- and eighth-inning roles, but manager Ron Gardenhire will give them a look.
The darkhorse of the bunch is someone Neal didn't mention.
Francisco Liriano.
He has no confidence in his arm anymore. He is likely shot as a starter, but the reality is that the former Tommy John surgery undergoer guy might be best-suited for short relief. He was awesome for the Twins before he was hurt, and he does have serious stuff. It's just not worked out getting him back in the starting rotation.
Is he better off working as a closer, where he can blow away guys for an inning at a time, pitch probably at least 100 fewer innings in a full season, and perhaps pitch with more confidence and control?
It can't hurt.
If it doesn't work out, the Twins still have depth in their bullpen, and they have guys who could be good in Nathan's role. However, this could be the best way to salvage Liriano's career before he goes from "promising lights-out starter" to "unfortunate Tommy John casualty" with no hope of recovery.
Just as the boys were getting hot, the Brewers have lost their leadoff hitter and emerging star second baseman.
Years of struggles had left fans wondering if Rickie Weeks would ever realize his boatload of potential. The start Weeks got off to in 2009 answered a lot of questions.
Sitting at .272/.340/.519 and on pace to blow away his career bests in many offensive categories, Weeks couldn't have been doing much more to alleviate fears about his development. Suddenly, the Brewers were looking at a legitimate All-Star setting the table.
(GM Doug) Melvin and head trainer Roger Caplinger said preparation was being made for Weeks to have surgery Wednesday in Phoenix by specialist Don Sheridan. Sheridan repaired his right wrist injury in 2006 as well as a torn thumb tendon in 2005.
Caplinger said there was no known medical reason for Weeks having the same injury in both wrists.
"Dr. Sheridan said he never had a patient who had that in both wrists," said Caplinger.
"Basically, it's Rickie being Rickie. He has very strong hands and wrists and has a lot of bat speed with torque."
There couldn't be much more disappointment with this news. Weeks had the look last year of a player who would forever struggle at the major-league level. The team has been greatly patient with him, though, and it seemed that the light came on for Weeks during spring training.
"It's depressing. It really is," said (Brewers' bench coach Willie) Randolph. "I know the hard work he put in this spring. He was one of the best students I’ve worked with in recent years. I just feel terrible for him. I know he was looking forward to going to the next level.
"I challenged him in spring training to set his goals on becoming an all-star this year. He came out ready to take over. I believed it. I think he believed it too.
"Right now, you just feel terrible for the kid. I don’t know what to say. I was praying that it would come back not as bad as they thought. I just had a bad feeling in my gut.
"He was on the right track. This is a tough business; you have to roll with the punches. But when it hits you like this, it’s not easy. It’s hard to deal with."
Where the club goes from here is going to be interesting.
Youngster Mat Gamel was already up from the minors, and he's in the lineup for Monday's game at St. Louis. Another player will be brought in from Triple-A Nashville when Weeks is formally placed on the disabled list.
Who plays second base full-time? Maybe the answer is "No one". Veteran Craig Counsell figures to see a lot of action, and I would expect the Brewers to bring Hernan Iribarren up from the minors. He won't play every day, either.
Bill Hall has experience in the middle infield, and fans who have speculated that J.J. Hardy could someday move to second base to accomodate big prospect shortstop Alcides Escobar may advocate that move now. Escobar is not ready, though, and he certainly isn't ready to play every day. Nor would Hardy be ready to play every day at second base.
I think we'll see a mishmash of players at the position, with Counsell getting the bulk of the work. However, another injury (PLEASE NO!!) could change all of this, perhaps escalating Escobar's rise through the system.
They're only 13-17 since Kevin McHale took over as head coach, but there were some obvious signs of improvement with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Throw it all out the window, and stick the Wolves in the mix for the top pick in this summer's NBA Draft. Center Al Jefferson will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. That should sufficiently blow up any outside chance Minnesota had at a respectable season.
It's unfortunate when any player goes down, but it's especially heartbreaking to see this happen to a guy who's playing the best ball of his career -- he's one of three players in the league averaging at least 20 point and 10 boards a game this year, and he's put up an incredible 26.9 and 11.8 boards in his last 10 games.
It's devastating news for Minnesota fans. Jefferson was really coming into his own, and he was a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
On the bright side, McHale is not running the basketball operations now. He's coaching. And I'll say it: He's doing a pretty good job. Maybe owner Glen Taylor can convince McHale to continue coaching, and the front office can move on without its most incompetent member.
That would be a real sign of hope, in another lost season.
Me update. Things are good here. As you can see to the right, I've been quite busy at FanHouse. I'm also blogging now at College Hockey News, though I've been dormant there for like a week now. Thanks to all for their kind words and such over the last 15 days. Yes, it's been that long.
I'll effort to give you more updates on this blog as we move forward. Here's a quick couple of thoughts for now.
McHale's team stinks, too. Granted, they've played some pretty tough competition. But the Timberwolves have yet to win for Kevin McHale, and I don't think it's a coincidence. The team just isn't very good. Whether it's free throws, three-pointers, ball protection, or defense, there just seems to be at least one thing at any given time that this team is really bad at. That's what gets you to 4-19.
Well, that and losing by 20-plus points to a wretched team like the Clippers.
Gaborik is coming! It's about damn time. My update on it for FanHouse can be found here.
Honestly, the Wild have looked as bad as ever in the last five games. They're not scoring, and the defense is horrifically leaky. No, they're not giving up a ton of goals, but they are yielding way too many shots. With Gaborik returning to the lineup Wednesday, you can expect to see part-time forward Brent Burns move back to defense. Burns came to the Wild as a forward, and they made a really good defenseman out of him. He played well up front, but I look at it as akin to the Packers moving Charles Woodson to safety.
It filled up one hole, but it created another one. And in both cases, the hole created may have been more significant than the one filled.
Speaking of the Packers ... It just wasn't meant to be, I guess. The Packers won't go to the playoffs, and in the end, it might not be a bad thing. This isn't a veteran team taking their last shot together and experiencing failure. It's a young team that has its best years in front of it. That has to be encouraging for Packer fans.
This fanbase is wonderfully spoiled. The Packers have posted exactly two losing seasons since 1992, by far the best mark in the NFL.
There are two games left, and I hope the Packers are smart enough to at least use some of that time to see what can be done about gaping holes on the offensive line and some underachieving players on defense. There should be no shortage of motivation, with a chance to spoil the Chicago Bears playoff chances Monday night, followed by the currently-winless Detroit Lions. If the Lions show up at Lambeau 0-15, there's no way the Packers can afford a loss. That's the wrong kind of history.
For as long as I've followed hockey, I've never understood why NHL players were so resistant to using visors to protect their eyes from serious injury.
Every time I see something happen involving a facial injury, I wonder even more.
To the right is Philadelphia defenseman Braydon Coburn, who took a puck to the face in Game Two of Philadelphia's series with Pittsburgh. He didn't return for the rest of the series. Combined with the loss of Kimmo Timonen, who didn't play until Game Five because of a blood clot, it crippled Philly's defense.
Movements to make visors or face shields mandatory have been met with enough resistance to stop them. However, there are some within hockey who believe that it's only a matter of time.
Quoting from Adam Proteau's Hockey News blog, Greg Wyshynski notes a very solid point made by AHL commissioner Dave Andrews:
"I don't think there's any reason for a player to take (a visor) off," said Andrews, whose league made visors mandatory for its players at the start of the 2006-07 season. "Every player now turning professional...whether they come from Europe, NCAA or major junior, has been wearing a visor, and to play without one is to consciously take it off."
I am of the "the sooner, the better" attitude here. Coburn's injury was absolutely avoidable, and I fail to understand why so many players don't realize this. They choose to stop wearing a face shield, and in doing so, they put themselves at incredible risk of a career-altering or career-ending injury.
This isn't about the impact of Coburn's loss on the Flyers' ability to beat Pittsburgh. It's about Coburn's injury, and the potential such an injury has to change a young player's career. Coburn is lucky he will be able to recover and play this fall. His injury should have little impact on his future. However, it has happened before (just ask Bryan Berard), and it will probably happen again if something isn't done.
