The Value of Joe Nathan

One of the enjoyable aspects of the internet and how it's affected the way we cover sports is the advent of statistical analysis.

This isn't about just the things -- OPS, primarily -- that somehow got labeled as Moneyball creations. However, that part of the business of baseball has changed the way many people view the game.

While "value" is still a tough thing for many baseball people to grasp, there are metrics on the topic. Baseball Prospectus has for some time published a stat called "Value Over Replacement-level Player," or VORP. VORP is designed to produce a calculation of how many runs a player produced (or prevented) over a cheap, bargain-basement type player employed at that same position.

I caught some heat with friends for arguing that the Joe Nathan injury wasn't all that disastrous for the Twins. My feeling is that Joe Mauer is a much more important player on this team, and truly someone they can't afford to lose, while Nathan -- while really good -- fills a role that is much more replaceable. The bottom line wasn't any disrespect toward Nathan. I think the world of the guy as a closer, but he's a ninth-inning guy.

Exactly how much of an impact can he have on the Twins' success?

Joe Posnanski has some numbers.

Here are Joe Nathan’s statistics against the other four teams in the American League Central:

Kansas City Royals: 3-0, 0.85 ERA, 35 saves, team hitting .144 against him.
Detroit Tigers: 2-1, 1.55 ERA, 30 saves, team hitting .153 against him.
Chicago White Sox: 3-2, 2.06 ERA, 24 saves, team hitting .151 against him.
Cleveland Indians: 3-1, 2.98 ERA, 26 saves, team hitting .201 against him.

Oy.

Granted, the AL Central stinks, but those are some serious numbers. Nathan must be a huge value to his team, right?

Well, then there's this, also pointed out by Posnanski.

In 2008, the Phillies were second in the league in runs scored, and fourth in ERA, and closer Brad Lidge was virtually unhittable – he saved 41 games in 41 opportunities. He finished fourth in the MVP balloting.

In 2009, the Phillies were first in the league in runs scored, sixth in ERA, and closer Brad Lidge was a fiasco – he was 0-8, with a catastrophic 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves. The Phillies won one more game in 2009 than they did in 2008.

So what's the answer?

My earlier argument for Francisco Liriano going into the bullpen was as much built on Liriano's arm troubles as it was Liriano's inherent value as a starting pitcher. However, as Patrick Reusse notes, the Twins are in potential trouble if Liriano can't start.

The difference between a closer like Joe Nathan and an average closer is 4.5 percent -- Nathan's 91 percent and an average of 86.5 for all pitchers trying to close a victory in the ninth inning.

The difference between the Liriano described by Gardenhire on Sunday and the gutsy (Brian) Duensing is a percentage that's incalculable.

This is an interesting point, if you assume it's either Liriano or Duensing for the fifth starter spot behind Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, and Carl Pavano. You also have to assume that the Twins can plug in anyone to Nathan's role and get a league-average performance.

But where are the Twins more likely to get that league-average performance? Out of a guy who pitches just one inning, or a guy who has to throw five or six consistently to be effective? If Duensing struggles, Liriano is the next-best candidate to start in that fifth spot. A healthy and effective Liriano -- hard to argue the point that he's looked good so far in the spring, for what that's worth -- is much better than Duensing, and he's much more helpful to this team starting than he is closing.

Liriano as a closer should be a last resort to salvage his career. Upon further reflection, it doesn't appear we're at that point yet.

Meanwhile, Nathan's VORP last season was 26.2. That ranked him third in baseball among relief pitchers. Baseball Prospectus -- in their 2010 annual -- projected a dropoff to a VORP of 16.1 this season. That would put him in the neighborhood with guys like Jose Valverde or Huston Street, who aren't bad relief pitchers but also aren't Joe Nathan.

Can the Twins just automatically count on whoever closes -- Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, or whatever they think of -- duplicating even a 16.1 VORP?

On the flip side, of the star players the Twins could lose, isn't this the best-case scenario? The Twins have a good starting rotation, plenty of options in the bullpen, including a lefty (Mijares) and a side-winder (Pat Neshek).

Nathan will be missed, but it could be argued that he was about to slip a bit in his production (BP's projections saw the slides from Dice-K and Josh Hamilton coming last year, so while their projections aren't gospel, they do good work.)

The Twins lived without Morneau last year for the final month, but it doesn't seem like a good long-term plan to have him on the shelf for that length of time again.

Meanwhile, Mauer's VORP last year, while often carrying the offense, was 77.5. His backup is Jose Morales, whose VORP was 3.7.

So, tell me again, who would you rather replace?

Joe Nathan Going Under Knife

A test of Joe Nathan's bum elbow Sunday didn't go very well.

After a light throwing session in Florida, Nathan told reporters he has decided to undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. The procedure will take care of Nathan's torn ulnar collateral ligament, but it requires Nathan sit out the 2010 season, the team's first at new Target Field.

Nathan said he hopes to return for the 2011 season, hopefully by Opening Day.

The typical Tommy John recovery is 12-18 months, so Nathan is obviously hoping to get on the low end of that scale.

"Didn’t go like we hoped," Nathan said. "We knew it was a long shot, but what this did do is clear my head. Definitely was no gray area. Definitely was on the black side, where it didn’t go as well as we like, and we know now we’re going to have to go in and get some surgery done, get this thing fixed up." Nathan said he will have the surgery as soon as possible, though he hasn't decided where or when. The estimated recovery time is 12 months, and Nathan said he's "very confident" he'll be ready for Opening Day next year. "Any time you’re going to be out for the season -- but especially the timing of this, with this ballclub, this new stadium, the excitement -- it’s definitely tough," Nathan said. "But right now I’ve got to take care of myself and get myself ready for next year."

The Twins can now move on to the next phase of this process. While Nathan gets himself taken care of by trained medical professionals, general manager Bill Smith and manager Ron Gardenhire have to find a closer.

It's not likely that the Twins will go without a designated closer, and it's apparently not likely that they'll convert Francisco Liriano to the job, since it appears they're getting him ready to be in the starting rotation.

Even if you think this is dumb (and you have to at least think they're playing with fire by letting a guy with arm problems in his past who likes to throw too many sliders continue on as a starting pitcher), at least the organization is willing to make decisions.

Twins Suffer Blow With Nathan Injury

Spring training has just started, but a contending team already has to deal with a major loss.

Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan has been diagnosed with an ulnar collateral ligament tear in his right elbow. The injury will likely require surgery, and if you didn't pick up on it by the terms "ulnar" and "elbow," that's the Tommy John surgery that Nathan is staring at.

During a quick press gathering Tuesday morning, the team confirmed the results of an MRI on Nathan, who left Saturday's game with elbow discomfort.

What they didn't do was rule Nathan done for the 2010 season, and they also didn't speculate much on potential replacements.

General manager Bill Smith tried to preach some degree of calm on the matter.

"We're going to send the test results off and get a second opinion,'' he said. "We probably won't have a final decision on where we're going for a week or two. Let it calm down, get some of the soreness out and re-evaluate from there.''

Of course, it seems kind of ridiculous to ask people to be calm over a major injury to a star player on a team not exactly littered with star players.

Plus, let's face it: Nathan isn't pitching this season. The Twins can say all the right things about second opinions and Nathan will talk about trying to pitch through the pain. But if this diagnosis is at all accurate, he's going under the knife, and he will miss virtually the entire season, if not the whole thing.

La Velle E. Neal asks the obvious question: What now?

Well, the Twins aren't void of options. Matt Guerrier has been very good out of the pen for a couple years now, though his .211 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year indicates the possibility he'll regress, and ten home runs allowed in 76 innings doesn't scream "PUT ME IN FOR THE NINTH INNING!" to me.

Jon Rauch had 17 saves with Washington in 2008, and he can be a tough pitcher to face in short doses because of the arm angles he uses out of a six-eleven frame. Rauch's closer experience makes him a real good candidate to get a shot at closing.

Jesse Crain was not reliable last year, while Pat Neshek was hurt. Both might be better guys for seventh- and eighth-inning roles, but manager Ron Gardenhire will give them a look.

The darkhorse of the bunch is someone Neal didn't mention.

Francisco Liriano.

He has no confidence in his arm anymore. He is likely shot as a starter, but the reality is that the former Tommy John surgery undergoer guy might be best-suited for short relief. He was awesome for the Twins before he was hurt, and he does have serious stuff. It's just not worked out getting him back in the starting rotation.

Is he better off working as a closer, where he can blow away guys for an inning at a time, pitch probably at least 100 fewer innings in a full season, and perhaps pitch with more confidence and control?

It can't hurt.

If it doesn't work out, the Twins still have depth in their bullpen, and they have guys who could be good in Nathan's role. However, this could be the best way to salvage Liriano's career before he goes from "promising lights-out starter" to "unfortunate Tommy John casualty" with no hope of recovery.