Thinking Out Loud: California Chrome Fails, So Do Hockey Fans

Listen, I'll be the first to admit. I'm not a horse racing guy. I bet on the Kentucky Derby in Vegas four years ago (won), but it was nothing more than a lucky guess.

I'm a passive fan when it comes to the Triple Crown, but I'm fully aware of how it works. When a horse wins the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, he will inevitably face a horse in the Belmont that did not run each of the first two legs.

The co-owner of California Chrome, Steve Coburn, clearly isn't happy about this fact. Here is his rant from after Saturday's Belmont Stakes.



Coburn didn't back off Sunday.

"It says Triple Crown. You nominate your horse for the Triple Crown. That means three," Coburn said in the track-side interview with ESPN on Sunday. "Even the Triple Crown trophy has three points on it. So when you earn enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, those 20 horses that start in the Kentucky Derby should be the only 20 allowed to run in the Preakness and the Belmont for the Triple Crown."

He also made a questionable analogy of why Tonalist's participation Saturday was unfair.

"These people nominate their horses for the Triple Crown and then they hold out two [races] and then come back and run one," Coburn told ESPN. "That would be like me at 6-2 playing basketball with a kid in a wheelchair. They haven't done anything with their horses in the Triple Crown. There were three horses in this race that ran in the first two -- California Chrome, Ride on Curlin and General a Rod -- none of the other horses did.  You figure out. You ask yourself, 'Would it be fair if I played basketball with a child in a wheel chair?"

Coburn made the analogy in both interviews Sunday morning. He was asked in the "Good Morning America interview" if he considered the comparison offensive.

"No, I'm just trying to compare the two," he said. "Is it fair for me to play with this child in a wheelchair? Is it fair for them to hold their horses back?"

Coburn said he has no problems if people label him a "sore loser" and even proceeded to give out his phone number so people can call him with their complaints.

Listen, I'm not an expert on this. But the Triple Crown has been run the same way for 146 years. When Affirmed won in 1973, he beat horses that didn't run all three races. When Secretariat won two years earlier, same story.

Whether Coburn likes it or not, this is how the sport works. If he doesn't like it, maybe he should bring it up with racing commissions who run the Triple Crown. I highly doubt anything will change, but perhaps Coburn will feel better.

I get that it's a quick turnaround for the horses who run, but I'm not in favor of anything that will make the Triple Crown easier to win. It's been done 11 times, and it should be difficult. Otherwise, it wouldn't carry nearly the prestige it does. Then the sport suffers, and horse racing has suffered enough over the years.

******

Coburn wasn't the only person putting his foot squarely in his mouth over the weekend.

Hello, hockey fans.

As soon as LeBron James left Game 1 of the NBA Finals Thursday because of leg cramps, the internet started in.

I'm as pro-NHL as the next guy, but this is a great example of hockey fans' inferiority complex. The sport doesn't do as well on television as the NBA does, and that drives people crazy, because they don't think there's any competition when it comes to the quality of the games.

I don't argue that. What I argue is how NHL fans choose to articulate themselves.

LeBron James might be an egomaniac, but he's a two-time NBA champion, NBA MVP, and an Olympic gold medalist. He isn't a quitter. If he's not finishing an NBA Finals game, something is wrong.

And I've seen what leg cramps can do to elite athletes. I've seen some of the best marathon runners in the world crippled by cramps less than halfway into a 26-mile race. These folks train their entire lives to run distance, but end up unable to stand without help when the heat and humidity prove to be too much for them.

Comparing LeBron James to a hockey player just doesn't work. All it does it make hockey fans look petty and silly.

Thinking Out Loud: NBA Playoffs, Baseball, Lacrosse

I'm going to try to do this more often, by the way.

The NBA wrapped up its first round of playoffs over the weekend. Plenty of fun games were played, with defense optional all over the place. Nowhere was this more true than with the Clippers and Golden State. Caught a good chunk of Games 4 and 7 of this series, which was probably the best of the first-round series. Donald Sterling's idiocy made it a newsworthy series, but it was already a highly-watchable one.

The Clippers just couldn't defend DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin enough, and Stephen Curry couldn't hit enough shots to render the Clips' bigs moot. It was a lot of fun to watch, however, because you new you saw Golden State give LA its very best. The Warriors didn't lose because of poor coaching, or a bad GM, or because a starter took too many minutes off. The Warriors lost because the Clippers were (barely) a better team.

By the way, Brooklyn and Toronto played 11 games this season between the regular season and playoffs. They each scored 1,070 points. Couldn't get more even than that. Of course, that doesn't make the Raptors feel any better.

Conference semifinals are Indiana vs Washington and Brooklyn vs Miami in the East, with Portland vs San Antonio and Oklahoma City vs the Clippers in the West. Thunder-Clippers could be every bit as entertaining as Clippers-Warriors was, and the Blazers might give San Antonio a run if Damian Lillard hits enough shots to keep the Spurs honest. Otherwise, they clamp down on LaMarcus Aldridge and the series is over.

******

Despite losing three of four to Cincinnati, the Milwaukee Brewers still sport the best record in baseball. That advantage is down to a half-game over San Francisco at 21-11 versus 20-11.

I'm not here to be a Debbie Downer, but this team has to start hitting if it is to have any chance. The Brewers' pitching has been nails. The rotation has gotten great outings from all five starters, and all but third starter Matt Garza have given them multiple great outings. Garza is about the only one of the five who hasn't gotten going. That's bad -- the Brewers paid him a hell of a lot of money, presumably not to post an ERA over 5 -- but it's also good, because he's bound to figure things out.

The bullpen has been fantastic, though it faltered a couple times in Cincinnati. Over the course of a 162-game season, even the best pitching staff experiences the occasional meltdown. What the Brewers need is for the offense to start pulling its weight.

If that happens, Milwaukee has a contender.

******

My son is in his first year of lacrosse, and he's amped about it. Loving the game.

The pinnacle of the lacrosse season nationally is the NCAA Tournament, which opens this week. The field has been expanded to 18 teams from its previous 16, with the top two seeds facing the winners of two play-in games during the week.

Defending national champion Duke is the top seed, followed by ACC rival Syracuse and 15-1 Loyola of Maryland.

The field is always dominated by East teams, but there are a couple entries from Colorado, including the No. 5 national seed Denver, which enters at 14-2. Air Force is in for the first time and will play in a play-in game for the right to get hammered by play Duke on Sunday.

The national semifinals are May 24, with the title game May 26 in Baltimore.

Kevin Durant Is Becoming What LeBron James Can't Be

I don't watch much NBA basketball, but after the New Jersey Devils found a way to stay alive in the Stanley Cup Final Wednesday, I flipped over to TNT and caught the last 14 minutes or so of the San Antonio Spurs' season.

This didn't seem to be a likely scenario as the hockey game was playing out. The Spurs led by 15 points early in the game, saw it peak at 18 in the second quarter, and took a 15-point lead into recess. As the hockey game played to its conclusion, the Thunder were staging a stirring comeback.

Along the way to a 107-99 win, Kevin Durant may have become the kind of team-leading star that LeBron James was supposed to be. He played all 48 minutes, scored 34 points, pulled down some huge rebounds, had the pass that led to Kendrick Perkins' monstrous and dagger-licious dunk in the final 30 seconds, and even drew a Manu Ginobili charge in the fourth quarter.

The difference between the snippets of the first half I got to see and the fourth quarter? Oklahoma City turned on the defensive energy in the second half. The Spurs had too many open looks in the first half, and while they might be old, they have plenty of guys who can hit big shots when you leave them open.

In the second half, the Thunder -- led by Durant and Russell Westbrook and James Harden -- were all over the place defensively, contesting every pass, drive, and shot. It was an impressive display for a young team, one that people assumed would crumble early in this series.

Instead, the Spurs crumbled. The team with a 20-game winning streak (going back to the regular season) didn't have a chance in the second half of this game, much like it didn't have a chance in Game 3, and much like how it looked inferior for most of Game 5.

Durant and the Thunder earned this. In doing so, Durant may have propelled himself past James in the pantheon of present-day NBA greats. James gets all the publicity -- good and bad -- because of the star power he's possessed since he was in high school. Durant wasn't the top pick in his draft (Greg Oden), he has played in two middle-road markets (Seattle and then Oklahoma City), and at no point has he gotten the deserved publicity because of 1) the market he plays in; 2) the power of guys he's in the league with right now; and 3) the fact he hasn't won a title.

(I know James hasn't won a title, but he's got a running buddy who has in Dwyane Wade, and he has been the alpha dog in this sport since he was 17. Durant can't claim those things. His experienced running buddy is Derek Fisher, a guy who generally goes about his business the right way and doesn't draw attention to himself by wearing asinine clothes after crushing playoff losses.)

James hasn't been a favorite of mine since the whole "Decision" debacling, so it was awesome to see Durant step up in the fourth quarter Wednesday -- at both ends of the floor -- and take a leading role in his team's defining moment.

Well, defining moment for now. There is more business to come for the Thunder.

Lakers Dynasty Dies Quick and Painful Death

As I said on Twitter (twitter.com/bruceciskie) Sunday, there isn't much about the NBA more enjoyable than watching the Los Angeles Lakers get eliminated.

Of course, when it goes down like it did Sunday, one is left to wonder exactly how much fun it really was.

After all, when a team doesn't display much passion, pride, or general desire to extend their season beyond the first elimination game, it renders the idea of getting to throw salt in the proverbial wound as rather useless.

And let's not make any mistake. On Sunday, the Lakers showed absolutely no fire. No drive. No want. They were ready to be done.

Contrast that with the end of the Philadelphia Flyers' season on Friday night in Boston, in a game where the Flyers fought and clawed and stuck with things until late in the third, when things finally fell apart for a team that had already shown they really didn't have anything for Boston this time around. It wasn't about heart or desire to compete. The Flyers had plenty. They just didn't have anything left in the tank, and they lost to a clearly better and more effective team.

If that's not enough evidence, look at the Detroit Red Wings, who are still alive after falling behind three games to none against San Jose. Not only are the Wings still alive, but smart money at this point is probably on them winning their series.

The Lakers will not be revived as quickly. Their flawed team was mercilessly exposed by Dallas, and a listless effort did nothing to cover up the known flaws, including a general lack of athleticism and the need for an elite point guard who can run the offense and play some defense.

Was it the most emphatic elimination of a two-time (or more) champion in recent memory? The last time the Lakers won multiple titles in a row, they lost in six games to San Antonio in 2003 (after a three-peat). Discounting the Chicago Bulls, who were blown up after their 1998 title (sixth in eight years and third straight), the 1997 Houston Rockets were the last two-time defending champion to be swept out of the playoffs the following year. The 2006 Miami Heat were swept out of the 2007 playoffs by Chicago.

In other sports, the fall-off can be more dramatic. It's not uncommon for defending Stanley Cup champions to miss the playoffs the following year, as Carolina did after their 2006 title. Of course, Detroit took their title defense in 2009 all the way to Game 7 of the Finals, and Chicago wasn't eliminated by Vancouver until Game 7 this year, even though half of last year's Blackhawk roster was playing elsewhere this year.

Discounting Carolina missing the playoffs in 2007, the last defending champion to be swept out of the NHL playoffs was Detroit in 2003 (Anaheim). You have to go back to 1976 to find a multi-time defending champion (Philadelphia) who was swept out of the playoffs the following year, and Philly played Montreal that year ... for the Stanley Cup.

What's my point?

This was quite a fall from grace for Los Angeles. That they did it without class or without a fight should be no shock, because while they didn't go streetball on the Celtics in the 2008 finals, they did get blown out of Game 6 in Boston.

It was a sad way for Phil Jackson to go out -- assuming this really was his last game. Jackson is one of the all-time greats in his profession, no matter what you think of the players he got to coach during his career. Other coaches have screwed up better situations than those Jackson was presented with over the years.

We'll see if the Lakers players learned anything over the years of playing for Jackson. Based on their behavior Sunday, it's fair to say they may not have.

The 'Other' Pro Sports Playoff

While my eyes are usually focused on hockey, the NBA Playoffs are kicking off Saturday.

Unfortunately for the bouncyball association, the drama is not likely to kick in until the second round or later, because the league was so ridiculously top-heavy that it's hard to find more than one or two potential upsets among the first-round series.

That makes it pretty easy to preview them, no?

Anyway, FanHouse does a much better job covering the NBA than I ever could. It's the passion of many of those folks, and they do some great writing.

As for me, I enjoy putting together dumb lists and preditions and then watching them blow up in my face. Or at least that's what happened with the NHL.

Why not one more dumb column with playoff predictions? We'll head back to school and do it in the form of the old-school true-false test.

The Lakers will not repeat. TRUE
They're the favorites, I believe. Kobe Bryant is still playing like a man possessed, and he's got help from Pau Gasol and Ron Artest.

However, it's insanely difficult to repeat. They lost 25 games this season, including 17 to Western Conference teams. There are enough cracks in the armor to suggest they can lose a best-of-seven series without being totally incompetent, something Bryant will likely not allow to happen.

Even though I have serious doubts about the Lakers' ability to roll through the likes of Utah, Denver, Dallas, and maybe Cleveland, they shouldn't have much trouble with Oklahoma City in the first round. The Thunder are a cute story, and Kevin Durant is an absolute beast, but they don't have the kind of supporting cast around him that they need to win a playoff series.

No higher seeds will lose in the first round. FALSE.
It's not as easy as you might think. This is a patently ridiculous statement in a normal year, but this isn't normal.

In the East, Cleveland, Orlando, and Atlanta are mortal locks to move on. Cleveland is a great team up against a pretty average Chicago outfit. Orlando is a horrific matchup for first-time entrant Charlotte, though I'd still be worried if I were a Magic fan, because Larry Brown has outcoached smarter guys than Stan Van Gundy in his career. Atlanta gets a Milwaukee team that is without starting center Andrew Bogut and will have a hard time competing against the athletic Hawks without him.

However, Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat have a great chance to upset the aging, unfocused Celtics. If Kevin Garnett's gait and Rasheed Wallace's attitude weren't enough to implode the once-great Celts, word leaked this week that coach Doc Rivers might step down after the season. That end might come quicker than anyone in Boston wants to believe.

Anyway, the Western Conference sees the Lakers get a series with Oklahoma City. The Thunder won't win more than two, if they win that many. I love the "We're not all about Brandon Roy" angle for Portland, but I don't know that it's effective. They'll try to slow the Suns down, and if they can keep the pace slow, they might have a shot. It's still a long shot, though.

Denver might go down to Utah, but the loss of Andrei Kirilenko will be a huge blow for the Jazz. San Antonio has a boatload of playoff experience, but that didn't help them against Dallas last year, when the roles were reversed in terms of seeding (Dallas is the high seed this year). Mavericks win.

So, while the odds aren't great for the low seeds, the No. 4 vs. No. 5 series provide enough intrigue to make me think at least one high seed will fall.

Don't be surprised if this is horribly wrong, though.

Cleveland is a lock out East. FALSE.
I get the mantra. Earn the No. 1 seed, then do everything you can to get ready for the playoffs.

However, the Cavaliers lost their last four games. They started a bit of controversy by resting LeBron James for home games.

Feel how you want about that (I don't agree with Tim on the issue, but the bottom line is that sitting the best player in the world for regular season home games is not a good marketing plan), but the Cavaliers aren't carrying momentum into the playoffs.

Yes, Mike Brown looks stupid if James sprains his ankle going for a rebound in a meaningless game, but you don't sit him for the entire preseason, do you? He has to play to get ready for the regular season.

Similarly, he should play at least 15-20 minutes a night down the stretch to keep fresh and ready for game action when the playoffs come.

While I still believe Cleveland will play in the NBA Finals come June, there will be speedbumps. There will be tests of character. And I believe that James will need some time to get his legs back after taking time off. Orlando already knows they can beat Cleveland when it matters most. Atlanta wants to believe they can get the job done. Why plant any more seeds of doubt by allowing time to develop rust before the most important games of the year?

Good thing the first-round opponent is Chicago.

"Fear The Deer" is brilliant. TRUE
Marketing campaigns in sports are generally lame. The Milwaukee Bucks have found a gem.

"Fear The Deer."

No one knows its real origin, but it's made the rounds on Twitter, and the Bucks are smart to embrace it, wherever it came from.

It's the kind of thing that won't help you win a playoff series against a better team, but it's something the fans can get excited about. Right there you have enough reason for the Bucks to love it, because they were 22nd in the NBA in attendance.

I'm dumb enough to make more predictions. TRUE

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Quarters
Cleveland over Chicago in 5
Miami over Boston in 7
Orlando over Charlotte in 6
Atlanta over Milwaukee in 5
Semifinals
Cleveland over Miami in 5
Orlando over Atlanta in 7
Finals
Cleveland over Orlando in 7

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Quarters
L.A. Lakers over Oklahoma City in 6
Denver over Utah in 7
Dallas over San Antonio in 6
Phoenix over Portland in 6
Semifinals
L.A. Lakers over Denver in 7
Dallas over Phoenix in 6
Finals
Dallas over L.A. Lakers in 7

NBA FINALS
Cleveland over Dallas in 7

TRUTHS ABOUT THE NBA FINALS

I have no magical potion to figure out what will happen in this series, though I think the Lakers will win.

I do, however, feel pretty strongly about a few statements, and the result of the series won't change my mind.

For a basketball fan, this isn't a bad series at all.

I heard Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio talking about this. He made -- hark! -- a really good point. The idea here is that the Cleveland-San Antonio series a couple years ago was a bad matchup for the league. It was a one-man team against a heavy favorite that lacked a serious personality. Remember, the media was so hell-bent on finding a storyline with that Spurs team that they were screaming every five minutes about Bruce Bowen being a dirty player. That's all they could come up with.

There is likely no shortage of entertaining basketball coming in this year's Finals. The Lakers can run the floor with the best of them, and Orlando will push the tempo and take a lot of shots.

There are superstars on both teams, with Kobe for the Lakers and Dwight Howard for Orlando. Not only that, but for Howard, this is a chance to make some noise as a mainstream star, something that hasn't really happened because everyone is too busy fellating LeBron he plays in Orlando.

Orlando has a chance.

Any team that has beaten the likes of Boston and Cleveland has to be given a real shot to win a best-of-seven. You know they'll have at least one game where they shoot lights-out and can't be stopped. That leaves them to get three wins in six games, and I believe this Orlando team is good enough to go 3-3 against anyone in the league.

That said, it's too hard to pick a team like Orlando to win. They don't have the talent to match up with Los Angeles, and they have to rely on the sly coaching of Stan Van Gundy and their long-range shooters.

Oh, and they have to hope the refs don't screw them. There, I said it.

If nothing else, the Van Gundy storyline adds intrigue.

My background in broadcasting makes me naturally interested in something like this. I thought Bob Griese was borderline terrible when he called his son's games at Michigan. Almost like he was trying too hard to hide what everyone knew.

Jeff Van Gundy offered to be taken off the ABC broadcasts of the NBA Finals when Orlando made it. He thinks he can fairly call games coached by his brother, but he didn't want anyone to think he was pushing an agenda.

ABC declined, trusting he would be a professional. While I think he will do a good job, the bottom line is that Jeff Van Gundy is a human being. His presence has helped ABC immensely, and I think it will help them in these Finals, as people will be waiting for him to slip up and start cheering from press row.

The Magic don't need Jameer Nelson.

Don't get me wrong. I'm sure they'd love to have him. But putting a player who is rusty and possibly not 100 percent on the floor isn't going to help you beat a team like the Lakers. Stan Van Gundy has set a rotation, and he's worked it well during his team's playoff run.

The last thing they should do right now is mess with that rotation to put an injured player on the floor. Yes, Nelson could help the Magic. He also could hinder them, and it's not at all worth the risk involved.

I won't be watching very much.

It doesn't help that I'm not an NBA fan. It also doesn't help that I get up for work early in the morning. 8pm Central time starts just don't agree with my schedule.

But I know I don't matter to the NBA. Neither does anyone in the Eastern time zone. Instead, they set a start time that caters to -- of all things -- the West Coast.

It's one thing that the NHL does more right than the NBA. It might be only one thing, but for the NHL, it has to be considered a start.

TRIPLE OVERTIME GOODNESS

Not a hockey game, unfortunately.

Even 24 hours after its start, the Bulls-Celtics game still reverberates. The triple-overtime thriller will be long remembered as one of the best NBA playoff games in eons.

The obvious issues with the NBA, including the assinine number of timeouts that are taken late in games and then in overtime. Officiating is inconsistent to the point that it makes the NHL look consistent.

None of that mattered on Thursday. The crowd in Chicago was as much a part of it as the players were, at least for this observer. Every great game needs a great crowd, and the 22,000 or whatever at the United Center did more than their share of the work.

Via TrueHoop, here's Rick Telander's awesome take on the game.

If the NBA could produce more drama on a wooden floor, it would have to use gasoline and gunpowder.

''Whatever overtime it was,'' Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro said afterward. He was trying to describe some key play, some key shot, but it was all a blur.

There was constant seesaw basketball, yes. But there was also the adrenaline-pumping mayhem of a near-brawl, with tempers flaring so badly at the start, it seemed poor little Celtics guard Rajon Rondo might have to be escorted from the building with full Blackwater security.

Rondo is without question the most despised small man in Chicago since, hmm, Eddie Gaedel's evil twin?

The raucous chant from the fiery crowd, ''Rondo sucks!'' pretty much never stopped. Indeed, the noise was such each time the 6-1, 171-pound playmaker touched the ball that one was moved to notice a moderately clever sign in the mezzanine: ''RONDO SUCKSO.''

Game Seven is Saturday night in Boston. You'd be an idiot not to watch, even if you don't like the NBA.

Sometimes, teams meet that are just a perfect match for one another. This is one of those cases. This is awesome theater, and will probably not be repeated at any point in the playoffs.

AWESOMENESS

My feelings for the NBA are not well-hidden around here. In general, the Association has screwed up a ton the last ten years, and I don't watch nearly as much basketball as I used to.

A big part of the problem is that the NBA just can't produce enough compelling playoff basketball to keep me interested.

This year? Well, it's been a notable exception.

Derrick Rose went off in Game One. Ray Allen in Game Two. The Celtics then owned Game Three. Ben Gordon ruled Game Four. Then, with Ray Allen fouled out and Kevin Garnett still broken, the Celtics' other "big star" and its youngest, brightest star took over Tuesday night.

Paul Pierce hit the huge shots. Rajon Rondo set them up.

It was a magnificent display of up-and-down excitement that basketball needs more of. Quite fitting, actually, that it would come one night after that 121-63 disgrace. The irony of that? Well, the Celtics are the number-two seed and Chicago seventh in the East. Denver and New Orleans are - respectively - the exact same seeds in the West. Denver might not be 58 points better than New Orleans ever, ever again, but the Celtics and Bulls could play 100 times and not have a margin of victory bigger than 25.

For all the talk about how the Western Conference is superior, it's incredibly top-heavy, and I'm not so sure it's superior. Outside of Denver, Utah, and the top-seeded Lakers, I'm not sure I'd take any Western team to beat their Eastern counterpart in a best-of-seven series. I'd certainly think twice about locking on teams like Houston and San Antonio against teams like Miami and Philadelphia.

As for Chicago and Boston, it's been everything you could ask for in an NBA playoff series. Except boring, which too many series around the league have been in recent years.

Also, big ups to Dallas, who won twice in San Antonio, broke a three-year road playoff drought, and took out the undermanned Spurs in five games.

KOBE, LEBRON, AND THE REST?

Well, that's what the mainstream media would have you believe, at least.

Especially since this week's revelation that Kevin Garnett could miss the rest of the playoffs with a bad knee. I mean, you'd think the 14 other teams in the NBA Playoffs had no business being there.

I don't pretend to be a basketball expert, but "Kobe, LeBron, and the guys who don't play very good" doesn't seem like a smart marketing strategery for a four-round tournament that lasts around two months.

(Then again, the NHL seems to only care about two teams. I mean, at least the Lakers and Cleveland can actually meet in the Finals. Pittsburgh and Washington could meet as early as the second round in the NHL. Man, is Bettman really an idiot.)

With all that in mind, here's a quick look at the games being played on hardwood this weekend. Why so quick? Because I don't try to act like a huge fan of the sport. Check the links on the right if you want more in-depth stuff.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Best matchup

Atlanta vs Miami. It's the 4-5 pairing, but features a legitimate MVP candidate capable of carrying his team at any given time. Dwyane Wade has had a fantastic season, but does he have enough magic left in him?

As for Atlanta, the Hawks have actually built on last year's seven-game tilt with the Celtics in the first round. Proving it wasn't a fluke, Atlanta energized their fan base and earned home court for this series. Guys like Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Al Horford give the Hawks a great chance to advance. They're much deeper across the front line and the bench than Miami is.

Wade took more than 300 more shots than Johnson - who led the Hawks with over 1,400 shot attempts - did. His 30-point average includes a number of huge performances, and he's the key player in the series.

Atlanta should win this series, but I'd be stunned if it didn't go seven. If this ends up being a five- or six-game series, Miami wins it.

Worst matchup

Orlando vs Philadelphia. Where is the intrigue? The Magic are a very good team, and should be able to challenge Boston for a shot at Cleveland in the conference final. Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson are too good for the Sixers to slow down.

About the only thing Philadelphia has going for them is that no one thinks they can win. While that "no one gives us a chance" mentality is all over sports and is often a good thing, it doesn't help when you're just not as good as your opponent.

Phillly might win one or two games, but this isn't a good enough team to seriously threaten the Magic.

The rest

Boston vs Chicago. No Garnett means the Bulls might have a shot. It would still take a perfect storm for them to win. Not much has changed from Chicago's last playoff berth. Ben Gordon makes the team go, and there's no one else who can carry them.

Cleveland vs Detroit. Step one to James' coronation. The Pistons offer little to no resistance.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Best matchup

Denver vs New Orleans. You may think the Hornets have to "ugly it up" against the fast-paced Nuggets to win. However, I think there's some serious drama in this series. The Hornets have the best player among the two teams in Chris Paul. Despite this, Denver has all the pressure in the world on it. After all, they managed to win a tough division, and they have home court for this series.

Sure, Paul and the Hornets want to win, but Denver has to. You can't measure that kind of pressure, and you don't get that kind of pressure when you're the seventh seed.

New Orleans has a real chance to win this thing in six or seven games, though the Nuggets could win this thing quickly with their, um, fast pace. George Karl has to keep this team playing warp speed to overwhelm the somewhat-undermanned Hornets. If he can do that, and they shoot well, Denver not only can win this series, but they could go far.

Worst matchup

LA Lakers vs Utah. I don't even have anything productive to say about this. It's not going to be pretty. Remember how competitive Utah was in the conference semifinals a year ago? Well, hold on to those memories, Laker haters. No chance.

The rest

San Antonio vs Dallas. The Mavericks have lost their last nine road playoff games. That's probably not a good way to go into this series. Being that the Spurs have home court, my math tells me Dallas has to win at least one road game.

Portland vs Houston. Bill Simmons touts the Blazers as the biggest threat to the Lakers in the West. He might be right, but they have to get through a legitimately tough first-round opponent in the Rockets. Brandon Roy hit a buzzer-beater to avert a season sweep at the hands of Houston, and he'll have to be huge again in this series.

(Rub on the head: TrueHoop)