The Ciskie Blog

Sunday, August 10, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 8. PURDUE

Defensive front. I like what Purdue brings to the table in the front seven. Yes, they lost their sack leaders from a team that generated practically nothing for pass rush all season. However, junior end Keyon Brown played well in the bowl game, tackles Ryan Baker and Alex Magee hold up well, and senior LB Anthony Heygood is set for a breakout season. The Boilermakers should be inspired to play well this year, knowing it's the last for head coach Joe Tiller. The 12th year boss is stepping aside after this season, and former Eastern Kentucky coach Danny Hope has already been tabbed as his successor. Hope will coach an offensive line that should also be very good this year, as both starting tackles return. Senior LT Sean Sester is a solid candidate for All-Big Ten honors when the season ends.

Needs work

Passing game. Yes, Curtis Painter is a solid quarterback. He's improved his accuracy, cut down on his interceptions, and did throw for nearly 3,900 yards last year. However, there are issues. Painter is still inconsistent with his accuracy. He's the exact opposite of mobile. Oh, and there's the fact that four of his top five receivers from last year are gone. Dorien Bryant and Dustin Keller were the big targets, as they take 155 catches and 15 touchdowns with them. Will Painter revert back to his mistake-prone mode without familiar targets to throw to? Can Purdue establish a solid balance to their offense, or will he have to do it all himself?

Final thoughts
Tiller's won 83 games at Purdue, and while he won't stick around long enough to hit 100, he could conceivably hit 90 this year if things go well. Painter needs to continue to improve, new receivers have to fill some huge holes on the perimeter of this offense, and Kory Sheets has to combine with Jaycen Taylor to be a threat on the ground more often. If these things happen, Purdue will easily hit last year's average of 34 points per game, and it will be up to a defense missing five key players from last year to build on that. Worth noting is that Purdue scored just short of 19 points per game in their five losses, two touchdowns below the season average. It's a small sample, but it shows that Painter will probably continue to struggle against good defenses.

Because of that, Purdue's defense has to step up. They have tools like Heygood and Magee, but there is still work to be done in the secondary. As good as Purdue has been over the years in the spread offense, they really have a hard time defending it (see: "Lefevour, Dan"). Purdue will probably be in line for a fringe bowl once again, but they could rise up the standings if everything comes together for them.

Saturday, August 09, 2008

INTERESTING DIGITS ON BOMBS

Maybe you heard. Brett Favre got traded to the Jets.

Lots of stuff on FanHouse, some of it penned by your humble correspondent. Some of it penned by other, much more intelligent people.

Anyway, Tim Graham blogs for ESPN.com on the NFL, and he unearthed some superb numbers on Favre, his predecessor in New York (Chad Pennington), and their ability to throw the deep ball.

Pennington didn't go deep as often, but he was much more effective when he did. His amazing passer rating of 107.7 dwarfed Favre's 66.9.

The main reasons for the disparity were Favre's interceptions and Pennington's judiciousness. Only 3.7 percent of Pennington's passes got picked off. Favre's daredevil antics helped inflate his interception rate to 12.1 percent.

Favre threw more than twice as many touchdown passes of 20 yards or more. But Pennington, the infamous soft-tosser, had a higher completion percentage and yards-per-attempt average.

Now, it's worth noting that Favre and Pennington have indeed used the deep ball differently. I swear there were times that Favre used it as a punt.

(And with how some of the Packers' punters have been over the years, I think Favre is better off taking care of it himself.)

It's also worth noting that Pennington threw a lot fewer deep balls, in part because his offense didn't call for them, and in part because it's hard to throw the deep ball when you're laying flat on your back.

Hopefully, the free-agent signings by the Jets work out, because the alternative is Favre spending a lot of time scrambling and/or laying flat on his back.

Friday, August 08, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 9. IOWA

Defensive line. Yes, Kenny Iwebema is gone, but Iowa returns a pair of hard-charging tackles. Mitch King led the team with 14.5 tackles for loss a year ago, and Matt Kroul led all linemen with 74 tackles. King fits the Iowa mentality perfectly, as he's an 264-pound defensive tackle who plays like he's at least 295. He has a non-stop motor and a great nose for the football, which reminds you of former Iowa linemen like Aaron Kampman and Jared DeVries who have succeeded in the NFL. The Hawkeyes also have the potential to field some playmakers at the ends, especially sophomore Adrian Clayborn. The ends will benefit from a lot of one-on-one blocking as opponents look to neutralize King and Kroul in the middle.

Needs work

Passing game. I do think junior Jake Christensen is going to be a fine QB. He only threw six picks in 370 pass attempts a year ago, despite a dreadfully bad and awfully banged-up group of receivers. His best WR, Darrell Johnson-Koulianos, returns after a 38-catch freshman season. The bad news is that he scored just two times and those 38 catches led the team. Iowa wins with tough defense and a solid ball-control offense, and they don't have to give in to the pass-first tendencies of many college offenses these days. However, they do need to average better than 190 passing yards per game if they hope to avoid another season below a 20 PPG average. Worse, the running game is also a huge question mark thanks to the departures of leading rushers Albert Young and Damian Sims.

Final thoughts
Despite returning eight starters, there isn't much to like about the Iowa offense. The Hawkeyes didn't run the ball effectively, and Christensen - while staying mainly turnover-free - just didn't light up any opposing defenses. His best performance was a 299-yard game against Northwestern. His season-high was 308 in a game Iowa lost by 18 points (Indiana). He'll help himself by completing more than 53 percent of his throws, but he'll also help himself by developing a serious rapport with Johnson-Koulianos. He should be helped by a line that returns five starters and can't possibly give up 46 sacks again (31 of those came in Iowa's six losses). Unless coach Kirk Ferentz can mold the line and develop the skill positions, Iowa is doomed for another poor season. A soft non-conference schedule (outside of a trip to Pittsburgh) probably assures a six-win season, and if they can pull off an upset in Big Ten play, they have a good shot at making a bowl game.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 10. MINNESOTA

Quarterback. I really like Adam Weber. He worked behind a pretty good offensive line, yes, but for a redshirt freshman QB to start every game on a terrible team and only get sacked 13 times says something. Weber took good care of himself, and he used his mobility well. The problem for Weber was his high number of interceptions (19), which is totally correctable with experience and coaching. Not only did Weber chuck 24 touchdowns and throw for nearly 2,900 yards, but he also led the team with over 600 rushing yards. 3,500 total yards for a freshman in the Big Ten? Yeah, he's good. He's also lucky, because he gets to throw to unheralded receiver Eric Decker, who caught 67 balls last year and will get more this year now that Ernie Wheelwright has moved on.

Needs work
Defense. The Gophers were flat-out embarrassing on defense a year ago, allowing nearly 230 rush yards and over 500 total yards per game. The 37 points per game allowed represented a double-digit increase from 2006. Coach Tim Brewster welcomes a new defensive coordinator in former Duke head coach Ted Roof. The hope is that he'll find a way to clean things up, with help from a handful of JUCOs Brewster brought in. The Gophers lose three of their top four tacklers, including S Dominique Barber and two LBs (John Shevlin and Mike Sherels). Brewster is trying to inject some speed into his linebackers, but will the speed be enough to overcome a lack of starting experience at the position?

Final thoughts

The hole Brewster (right) dug in his first season is massive, but he has help. Weber is a very good talent, as is Decker. Finding a running game is key there, because Weber can't afford to take the pounding that comes along with continuing to be his team's leading rusher. Roof has a huge project with the defense, but Brewster did bring in a tremendous recruiting class and he has tremendous hopes for the unit.

The schedule isn't very forgiving (the Gophers miss out on Penn State and Michigan State, but get to play Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin all on the road. Yippee!), but it's likely Minnesota will find a way to win a league game or two this time around. Overall, something around four or five wins would constitute improvement, though it might not be enough to keep the vultures from circling. Minnesota moves into a new on-campus football stadium in 2009, and can ill afford for Brewster's big-talk act to keep producing losing seasons. After all, if they wanted the football program to suck, they would have kept Glen Mason around.

2008 BIG TEN PREVIEW: 11. INDIANA

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

INDIANA HOOSIERS
Last year: 7-6 overall, 3-5 Big Ten (T-7th)
Postseason: Lost to Oklahoma State, 49-33, in Insight Bowl

The Hoosiers were inspired last year. After the offseason passing of head coach Terry Hoeppner, IU rallied to play for a shot at a 13th game. That 13th game, a bowl, was a stated goal of Hoeppner when he took over a program in arrears in 2005. While he didn't live long enough to see the goal through, interim coach Bill Lynch admirably carried out the mission.

While Indiana returns some talented players from last year's team, the task they are facing is a great one. They have to follow up an emotionally draining season with something that remotely resembles progress.

In good shape

The offensive backfield should be strong this season. QB Kellen Lewis (right) returns from a suspension in the spring. Assuming the lack of work in the spring doesn't somehow affect him, Lewis should be able to build off what he did a year ago. Lewis hit 60 percent of his passes and also led the team with 736 rushing yards. He accounted for 37 total touchdowns. So, yeah, he's a pretty good player. However, he stumbled badly against Wisconsin (the 33-3 loss was IU's worst of the season) and struggled with his accuracy a lot down the stretch. It would help him greatly if RB Marcus Thigpen started to live up to his potential. He ran pretty well for most of the season, but it's telling that he was held out of the end zone, something that should never happen to a player of his ability.

Needs work

Defense. The Hoosiers were flat-out abused in the Insight Bowl, as Oklahoma State racked up 49 points and over 500 yards of offense. Leading sack man Greg Middleton (pictured) returns to anchor the defensive line. He was first-team All-Big Ten last year with 16 sacks. There is a problem, though. The Hoosiers have to replace a bunch of talent lost elsewhere. Most notably, MLB Adam McClung and CB Tracy Porter both moved on, and the Hoosiers lack depth at both positions. There was a lot of work that needed to be done to begin with, but Indiana is going to find it tough to recover from the high-end losses they suffered on what wasn't a terribly good defense to begin with.

Final thoughts
It's possible that no team in the Big Ten will miss its top playmakers like Indiana will miss Porter, McClung, and WR James Hardy (75 catches, 16 TDs). It's possible to re-energize a program in the short-term by teaching players more effectively, but the kind of bad recruiting we saw at Indiana for a lot of years isn't just going to be forgotten about. Depth is important for any program, and Indiana will feel that lack of depth this season. I hate to predict a last-place finish after all they did last year, but the Hoosiers just don't have enough going for them this year.

I'm looking at a season where the Hoosiers are lucky to win more than two Big Ten games and five games overall.

Monday, August 04, 2008

HE'S BAAAAACK

Unfortunately, this is very real. We'll know more tonight, but it appears that we have a Hall of Famer back on the Packers.

I have no issues with the man changing his mind. I have major issues with the man turning a very important training camp into one of these...

Ack. Good luck, Aaron. You got one Packer fan in your corner.

Of course, I'm human. In the end, I want this team to win. That's the bottom line. If the coaching staff eventually determines Favre is the guy to do that, then count me in.

However, I want the coaching staff to determine that. Not some empty-headed suit at ESPN (I'm looking at you, "everyone at ESPN").

(ESPN should be ashamed of themselves. Two years ago, many of these same people were chastising Favre for holding the Packers hostage when he was washed up and should have retired. Flip-flopping is bad. Just ask John McCain. He'll tell you all about it.)

Thursday, July 31, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: INDEPENDENTS

Weis leads a turnaround. It wasn't meant to be easy for Charlie Weis (pictured yelling), but he should see some rewards from last year as soon as, well, right now. The Irish went 3-9 a year ago. They lost eight of those nine games by double-digits, including home losses of 33-3, 31-14, 38-0, and 41-24. Weis smartly went with true freshman Jimmy Clausen at QB for nine starts. While the highly-touted Clausen did virtually nothing for most of the season, the experience he got should help him be a much better player this year. It'll also help that the offensive line is likely to yield fewer than 58 sacks this year, and the Irish are likely to gain more than 75 rushing yards per game. Look out for junior RB James Aldridge, who can't possibly be held out of the end zone again this year. Notre Dame was fairly competitive on defense for most of the season, especially when you consider how much time they spent on the field. New coordinator Jon Tenuta has some quality talent to work with this year.

Navy's coaching change. With Paul Johnson gone for Georgia Tech, Navy grabbed one of his offensive assistants. Ken Niumatalolo is the first Polynesian coach in Division I-A, and the former Navy offensive assistant plans to keep the option offense intact. The Midshipmen are lucky to return starting QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada (right) for a third season at the helm. He accounted for over 1,700 yards of total offense and 20 touchdowns, but is recovering from offseason knee surgery and didn't do much in the spring. Shouldn't be a problem for the experienced starter. Of more concern is the work Niumatalolo has to do on the offensive line. Three starters are gone, and the Midshipmen are - as usual - badly undersized at the position. A bright spot on a defense that was terrible against the pass last year (opponents completed almost 70 percent of passes) is that all four starters return in the secondary, and there is plenty of experienced depth after an injury-riddled season.

Western Kentucky continues the transition. The Hilltoppers were a perennial power in Division I-AA, winning national titles in 2000 and 2002. Western Kentucky moved up to I-A beginning last year, and they will join the Sun Belt officially next year. WKU plays five games against Sun Belt teams this year, but they won't count in the league standings. This is a program that will probably take a step back this year, as they have stepped up the schedule from what they had a year ago, and they will miss four of their top six tacklers on defense. With trips to Indiana and Alabama in the season's first three weeks, coach and former WKU defensive coordinator David Elson can't waste much time building that defense back up. Elson gets his starting skill players back on offense. QB David Wolke, RB Tyrell Hayden (pictured), and WR Jake Gaebler should all improve their 2007 numbers.

Army returns to tradition. Coach Stan Brock closed down spring practice. No fans. No media. Why? Because it was time to overhaul the stagnant Black Knight offense. The old tradition of the option is back. It's a good thing for Army, as they have a ton of talented running backs, and now they have an offense that will utilize the depth at the position. Word is that freshman Paul McIntosh may have the upper hand on the QB job, beating out experienced junior Carson Williams (right), who worked in Army's pro-set offense a year ago. Small senior Carlo Sandiego may also have a shot at the job. Army averaged just 88 yards per game on the ground last year. Don't be surprised if that number comes close to tripling this year. Having Temple, New Hampshire, and Akron all at home to start the season will ease the transition. Army has worked hard to soften the schedule since their days in Conference USA. Texas A&M and Rutgers are the only teams from BCS conferences on this year's slate.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, QB, Navy
Defensive Player of the Year: David Bruton, S, Notre Dame
Coach of the Year: Charlie Weis, Notre Dame
Coach on the Hot Seat: Charlie Weis, Notre Dame
Best Non-Conference Game: Notre Dame at USC, November 29
Worst Non-Conference Game: Towson at Navy, August 30

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: WAC

Welcome to The Ciskie Blog's 2008 College Football Preview. As usual, you can expect a rundown of every Division I-A (or "Football Bowl Subdivision", if you prefer) conference, as well as a brief look at the independents. Some of the information used to compile these previews came from various football preview publications that I took the time to review this summer. I give a full endorsement to Phil Steele's College Football Preview (the national edition, as well as his various regional magazines). I also have looked at Sporting News, Athlon Sports, and Blue Ribbon (via ESPN Insider). Information was also gathered from local newspapers and school websites. Please use the comments section or e-mail for feedback, questions, and any corrections you feel need to be noted.

1. Fresno State
2. Boise State
3. Nevada
4. New Mexico State
5. Louisiana Tech
6. Hawai'i
7. San Jose State
8. Idaho
9. Utah State

TOP FIVE STORYLINES IN THE WAC
June Jones moves on. The biggest addition for Conference USA is the biggest loss for the WAC. Jones won 76 games in nine seasons at Hawai'i, taking the Warriors to the Sugar Bowl in his final season. Yes, the Warriors got worked by Georgia, 41-10, in the bowl, but the fact that Jones took a program on a shoestring budget ($50,000 for recruiting) as far as he did is a testament to his coaching abilities. Former UH defensive coordinator Greg McMackin takes over the head job, and he starts by making $300,000 more per year than Jones did (McMackin is slated to make $1.1 million). The longtime assistant coach has quite a task on his hands, as Hawai'i returns only nine starters from last year's 12-1 team. Early-season trips to Florida and Oregon State should only complicate the transition.

Fresno's BCS potential. As usual, Pat Hill has an interesting team in the Valley. The Bulldogs return 17 starters, including ten on offense, from a team that got hot late last season. Fresno won eight of their last ten games after a 1-2 start. They clearly found the QB to lead them into a potentially huge season in 2008, as Tom Brandstater (photo) hit nearly 63 percent of his throws and tossed just five picks in 337 attempts. He has all his skill players back. Feature back Ryan Mathews ran for 14 touchdowns, and top receivers Marlon Moore and Bear Pascoe combined for 93 catches and nine scores. Hill's defense was subpar a season ago, allowing over 400 yards per game and permitting 27 points per game. The schedule is also daunting, probably preventing Fresno from having a real shot at a BCS run. The Bulldogs play non-conference games at Rutgers, Toledo, and UCLA, host Wisconsin, and they also travel to Boise State November 28 for their WAC finale. It will take Hill's best coaching job yet to get this team to Boise with an 11-0 record, but it would be great to see a team like Fresno State rewarded for it's "anyone, anywhere, anytime" scheduling mentality.

The race for third. It appears Nevada is favored to end up third in the league. With WAC Freshman of the Year Colin Kaepernick (right) returning to run the Pistol offense, and all the offensive leaders back, Nevada should have little trouble topping the 33.5 points per game they averaged last season. Much like the rest of the WAC, Nevada's defense is leaky, and it likely keeps them from being a serious league title contender. Hawai'i has to replace record-setting QB Colt Brennan, three receivers who caught 90 or more passes last year, and offensive architect June Jones. New Mexico State has to be considered a threat to rise up the league standings. The Aggies return 14 starters, including seven on a defense that will benefit greatly from an improved offense. Hal Mumme's Air Raid offense was grounded by injuries to QB Chase Holbrook and WR Chris Williams. All the key pieces return on offense, so it's a matter of turning the ball over less and staying healthy. Holbrook is one of the more talented and accurate quarterbacks in the country, and he's all set up for a huge senior year. The other wild card in the WAC is Louisiana Tech. They have two transfers battling for the QB job, including last year's Georgia Tech starter, Taylor Bennett. Auburn transfer Steven Ensminger is also in the mix, as is sophomore Ross Jenkins. The Bulldogs won five games a year ago, despite a passing game that floundered under 200 yards per game. Improving the play out of the QB position will help LT a great deal. Getting more consistent defensive play would also be a good thing. Then again, that's a weakness all over the league.

Holbrook Chase-ing some attention. Yes, it's New Mexico State. Yes, it's Hal Mumme's gimmicky Air Raid offense. But Holbrook (right) is still something to watch. Despite battling injuries and throwing 18 interceptions, Holbrook hit 70 percent of his throws last year, and he's already the school's all-time leading passer by over 1,000 yards. Having a healthy Williams will help Holbrook (Williams caught over 90 passes in 2006), as will an improved offensive line and the experience of another year in Mumme's offense. The schedule shows visits from Boise State and Hawai'i, as well as a non-conference home game with rival New Mexico. Holbrook has a big arm, so anything he can do to impress NFL scouts is a bonus. He won't be a high draft pick because of Mumme's offense (he spends too much time in the shotgun), but his progress definitely bears watching. He's probably the highest-profile QB in this league.

Utah State continues to have problems. Try as he might, Brent Guy just can't right the ship in Logan, Utah. The fourth-year coach did lead his team to wins in each of their last two games a year ago, but that was after an 0-10 start that included losses by 51, 16, 15, and 52 points. The Aggies have to reconstruct the offense this year, as three-year starting QB Leon Jackson departs. Senior Sean Setzer and junior Jase McCormick appear to be the leaders to take over the position. A smallish USU defense allowed nearly 200 yards per game rushing, but they get back five of their front seven for this year. Guy also recruited DT Casey Davis from nearby Snow Junior College, hoping he can bolster the interior pass rush. The Aggies posted just 12 sacks last year, and no more than two in any single game. Winning more battles up front is a top priority for the defense. Opening at UNLV and Oregon, then at home against Utah, is not helpful. But Guy has the right attitude, and he continues to slowly improve the depth of the football team.

BEST OF THE REST
Boise State's offense continues to evolve. The Broncos have added a quicker tempo to their attack, and they're also using some spread stuff and some of Nevada's pistol offense. They still have All-America RB Ian Johnson, who battled injuries again last season. Dick Tomey led San Jose State to a bowl win in his second season, but the Spartans fell off last year. The return of RB Yonus Davis should help SJSU improve, but it means nothing if they can't replace productive QB Adam Tafralis, who graduated. If a team like Hawai'i, New Mexico State, or San Jose State falter, it is an opportunity for Idaho to surprise. Second-year coach Robb Akey should see his offense improve, thanks to ten returning starters. He'll benefit from the decision to play now-sophomore Nathan Enderle in nine games last year. That experience will pay off, as will the play of second-team All-WAC back Deonte' Jackson.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State
Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Gingo, LB, Boise State
Coach of the Year: Hal Mumme, New Mexico State
Coach on the Hot Seat: Brent Guy, Utah State
Best Non-Conference Game: Wisconsin at Fresno State, September 13
Worst Non-Conference Game: Idaho State at Boise State, August 30

Sunday, July 27, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: SUN BELT

Florida Atlantic is the class of the league. After their first conference title and first bowl berth last season, the Owls appear poised for a run at serious respect this year. I'm sure that the administration had visions of a successful program when they started up in 2001, but the fact they've come so far so fast is a tribute to legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger. Junior QB Rusty Smith (see photo) is the star of the show on the field, off a 32-touchdown season a year ago. Smith will be helped a great bit by the returns of feature back Charles Pierre and the top ten receivers from last year's team. Junior Cortez Gant is the top pass-catcher, as he topped 1,000 yards last year. FAU does need to get better on defense, where the Owls allowed well over 30 points per game while giving up 4.7 yards per carry and a 64.0 completion percentage to opponents. Schnellenberger is working on the team's ratcheted expectations this year by saying he feels they have a real chance in the opener at Texas. They might not win that game, but the schedule sets up well for nine or ten regular-season wins.

Can Louisiana-Monroe keep going after a 5-1 finish to 2007? Oh, and one of those wins was over Alabama. Not Alabama-Birmingham, Alabama State, or Alabama A&M. Alabama. The Crimson Tide. Anyway, the Warhawks did indeed finish the season 5-1, including that huge upset. For Charlie Weatherbie's club to carry it over, they have to replace three key players who have moved on. RB Calvin Dawson ran for over 1,400 yards and scored 12 times. CBs Darrius Battles and Quintez Secka combined for 20 pass breakups and played well in coverage for a good chunk of the season, standing out on a rather poor defense. QB Kinsmon Lancaster (right) returns after showing real progress a year ago, and the new spread offense incorporated by coordinator Steve Farmer really suits Lancaster's mobility and short-passing talents. If Weatherbie can steer this team through early-season games at Auburn and Arkansas, the Warhawks are poised to make a run at a bowl bid.

Biggest shoes to fill: Omar Haugabook. In 2005, Troy managed just 16 points per game on offense. They added a touchdown to that total in 2006, Haugabook's junior year. Last year, it ballooned to 34, as Haugabook accounted for 29 total touchdowns (18 passing). Only a home loss to Florida Atlantic in the season finale kept Troy from going to a bowl game. Now, Haugabook is gone, and the coaching staff is left with three candidates to replace him. Based on what I've read, sophomore Jamie Hampton has the upper hand on the job, and he'll be fortunate to be surrounded by a strong, experienced offensive line. In Troy's spread, Hampton's mobility will be a key, as will the play of new starting RB Maurice Greer, a Colorado transfer. Quickly reloading the offense will be a huge key to success for Troy, as will their ability to replace another first-round NFL draft pick on defense (CB Leodis McKelvin).

Experienced QBs all over. Yes, Haugabook is gone, but other teams are in great shape under center. Smith returns at FAU, and we already mentioned Lancaster at ULM. Also back are Michael Desormeaux at Louisiana-Lafayette, Corey Leonard from Arkansas State, Dwight Dasher and Joe Craddock (Middle Tennessee), Giovanni Vizza of North Texas, and Paul McCall from Florida International. The most intriguing position battle in the league may be at North Texas, where Vizza - off a solid freshman season - faces a serious challenge from freshman Riley Dodge. Riley's father, Todd Dodge, is the UNT head coach and architect of the Mean Green's version of the spread. It's an offense Riley knows well from his time playing for his dad at Southlake Carroll High School in Texas.

Desormeaux developing as a passer. For Louisiana-Lafayette to make a move this year, the senior has to continue improving as a throwing QB. With over 1,100 yards rushing last year and over 2,000 yards rushing in his ULL career, there's no question Desormeaux can run the ball. If he can't pass it, the Ragin Cajuns will not do much better than last year's 3-9 record. ULL has two experienced wideouts to work with, and coach Rickey Bustle has talked openly about improving the passing game this year. If they can find a way to get even a good passing game going, a rushing attack that averaged 252 yards per game last year will only improve, and so will Lafayette's record.

BEST OF THE REST

Arkansas State sports a new nickname (Red Wolves), but the same backfield they had last year. Leonard and RB Reggie Arnold (right) return after helping the offense improve by ten points per game over a miserable 2005. The Craddock-Dasher battle for the QB job at Middle Tennessee is going to be entertaining, and it might not be decided in fall camp. Craddock is a better passer, and Dasher a better athlete, leading MTU with 530 rushing yards last year. Besides Vizza vs. Dodge, the other top storyline at North Texas is the defense. They allowed a ghastly 45 points per game last year, giving up almost 500 yards per game. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that it needs to improve if UNT is to make any kind of move back up the standings. A new on-campus stadium will probably be the highlight of the season for Florida International. They'll play five games in the new digs, and while the building process is underway, there is still much work to be done for Mario Cristobal. He gets 18 starters back, and many of them are quite young.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Rusty Smith, QB, FAU
Defensive Player of the Year: Frantz Joseph, LB, FAU
Coach of the Year: Charlie Weatherbie, Louisiana-Monroe
Coach on the Hot Seat: Rickey Bustle, Louisiana-Lafayette
Best Non-Conference Game: UTEP at Louisiana-Lafayette, November 8
Worst Non-Conference Game: Alcorn State at Troy, September 13

Saturday, July 26, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '08: SEC

Tebow "defends" the H*i*m*n. They'd rather he were defending the national championship, but Florida fans have to settle for having one of the most explosive players in recent history in college football. Tim Tebow (in the photograph) won the H*i*m*n because he led the best offense in the nation in the nation's toughest conference. Tebow totaled 55 touchdowns and threw just six picks in 350 passes. This year will be just as good for the Gators' offense, as USC transfer Emmanuel Moody bolsters the running game, and Tebow works with the likes of Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, and Cornelius Ingram in the passing attack. Sure, defenses now have 13 games worth of film with Tebow at QB, but Urban Meyer is a smart, innovative coach, and there aren't many QBs in the nation who are better-suited for their offenses than Tebow.

Troubles at Alabama. An obviously and somewhat understandably defensive coach Nick Saban addressed concerns over Alabama's offseason disciplinary issues at SEC Media Day. He's on track in saying that the media tends to forget about the positives, but they do that because the negatives usually outweigh them. Nothing angers a fanbase more than players in the program who haven't earned the right to represent the program. And if Saban doesn't stop losing games to Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State, his contract won't be fat enough to overcome further off-field problems. At Alabama, you're either winning or you're on the hot seat. There is no third direction.

Cat fight! There are two sets of Tigers in the SEC. One of them just won a second national championship in five years. The other is averaging ten wins over the last ten years, and is probably a slight favorite in the SEC West this year. We'll start with defending national champion LSU. These Tigers probably lost too much top-end talent to be favored to repeat. Another strong QB, Matt Flynn, is gone, as are top rusher Jacob Hester, athletic Early Doucet, along with leading tacklers Craig Steltz, Ali Highsmith, and line star Glenn Dorsey. If they're to be in the SEC title game again, it's going to be on the back of their new starting QB, likely to be either Andrew Hatch or Jarrett Lee. The two split time in the spring game. Auburn, meanwhile, returns a load of experience from a team that won four of its last five after a last-second loss to LSU. Tommy Tuberville's Tigers bring back 16 starters, including leading rusher Ben Tate and top receiver Rodgeriqus Smith. Kodi Burns and Chris Todd will have a great battle in camp for the starting QB job, with Burns presenting more athletic ability. Whoever wins the job has plenty to work with in the new spread offense.

Spurrier's quarterback problem. The offense implemented and mastered by Steve Spurrier (right) needs top-notch QB play leading it. If South Carolina's spring game is any indication, this could be a rough year for the Gamecocks. The most talented of Spurrier's bunch this year is redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia, but he's suspended until August 15 and is unlikely to steal the starting job in less than two weeks of practice. That is, unless sophomore Chris Smelley and junior Tommy Beecher continue to underwhelm. As you can see, Spurrier has a problem on his hands. The defense is in place for Carolina to make a run, and there is plenty of skill-position talent, but if Spurrier can't solve the quandary under center, the Gamecocks will be on the edge of bowl eligibility again.

Nutt or Petrino? Arkansas got rid of Houston Nutt for really no good reason. There were some issues in the program, but it wasn't anything that caused the team to be bad, and the Razorbacks weren't loaded with troublemaking players. However, talented backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones parlayed 1,000-yard seasons in Nutt's offense into first-round status in the NFL Draft. If there's anything good about the turnover, it means Bobby Petrino can more easily transition into his wide-open offense. Petrino quit on the Atlanta Falcons, and he deserved every bit of criticism he got for the move. However, his decision was born out of the mistake he made in leaving college football to begin with. Petrino has to build his offense around the iffy Casey Dick this fall, but he should have no trouble eventually making a winner out of the Razorbacks. Nutt moved to Ole Miss to replace the fired Ed Orgeron. While Orgeron wasn't much of a game coach, he did prove himself as a recruiter, and Nutt will benefit from that. I don't have the guts to pick them ahead of Alabama, because I'd still like to think Saban can win nine games with even an average football team. However, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Nutt get the Rebels to the upper half of the West Division in short order.

BEST OF THE REST

Georgia figures to be a preseason number one team, thanks to the play of QB Matt Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno (pictured), and defenders like Geno Atkins, Dannell Ellerbe, and C.J. Byrd. The Bulldogs have to survive early-season trips to South Carolina and Arizona State, but they're a top contender in the SEC and in the country. Offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe left for Duke, so Tennessee reloads with new coordinator Dave Clawson and tries to replace long-time starting QB Erik Ainge. The Volunteers struggled for much of the year on defense, and that may be the key to their season. Losing top-notch talents like QB Andre Woodson and RB Rafael Little hurts Kentucky a great deal. The Wildcats just don't have the depth in their program to replace both. Struggling Vanderbilt replaces 13 starters, including top receiver Earl Bennett, but the administration has shown great patience with coach Bobby Johnson. He's really doing a solid job, despite his 20-50 record. How far they've come without reaching a postseason game should show how bad this program truly was before Johnson arrived. It was a pleasant surprise to see Mississippi State in a bowl game last year, but it will be a tough task to repeat the feat. They scraped by in three of their regular-season wins, and still got blown out by LSU, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Sylvester Croom gets 14 starters back, but this team could easily post an inferior record while playing better football.

PRESEASON AWARDS AND NOTABLES
Offensive Player of the Year: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Defensive Player of the Year: Geno Atkins, DT, Georgia
Coach of the Year: Houston Nutt, Mississippi
Coach on the Hot Seat: Nick Saban, Alabama
Best Non-Conference Game: Auburn at West Virginia, October 23
Worst Non-Conference Game: Tennessee-Martin at Auburn, November 8