Ten Years After Holy Cross, the NCAA Tournament Yields No True Upsets Anymore

WORCESTER, Mass. -- When you look at the history of the NCAA Hockey Tournament, things changed on March 24, 2006, ten years ago to this day.

It wasn't a moment that Minnesota Gopher fans want to remember, but it might be one of the more significant happenings in the history of college hockey.

(Justin Holl's buzzer-beater against North Dakota in 2014 is also significant, guys, so don't think we're trying to make you feel bad here.)

It was that night at Ralph Engelstad Arena that Holy Cross became the first No. 4 regional seed to beat a No. 1 since the tournament went from 12 teams to 16 (and from two six-team regionals to four four-team regionals) in 2003. The Crusaders' run ended the next night at the hands of regional host North Dakota, but that's not why this is significant.

Holy Cross' win, while maybe not directly starting the storm, led us to a sea change in the college hockey world that makes us look differently on this tournament than we ever have before.

Since that fateful Tyler McGregor shot eluded Kellen Briggs and sent all those North Dakota fans in attendance into delirium, No. 4 regional seeds have made quite the impact on the tournament.

(By the way, Brad Schlossman has a great story up on the Holy Cross win, which is arguably the most memorable moment to date at The Ralph. Talked to McGregor and some others on the impact of the win.)

In the nine tournaments since 2006, No. 4 regional seeds are 15-21 in opening round games against No. 1 seeds, with at least one team winning at least one game every year. In 2008, Notre Dame became the first No. 4 seed to reach a Frozen Four, falling to Boston College in the championship game. At least one fourth seed has reached the Frozen Four in six of the last eight years (2009 and 2013 each had two). Four have played for national championships.

Oh, and two of the last three national champions (Yale in 2013 and Providence last year) were No. 4 regional seeds.

"It's the parity across college hockey," Providence coach Nate Leaman said. "To say that someone's a one seed or a four seed, when there's tens or thousandths of a point on the RPI that separates them, there's not a lot. Teams are good. These are one-game scenarios.

"There are no one-seeds and four-seeds anymore."

There's no question that the gap between No. 1 and No. 16 is as small as it's ever been. Part of it is structure. It used to be that college hockey was helter-skelter and there was a lot more free-wheeling in the game. Just like every other level, structure has taken over the game. Everyone has video. There are no secrets. And everyone is getting good players.

Not everyone has the depth that a team like Providence can brag about, but the gap between the top lines on most teams has shrunk considerably over the years. Now, you look at RIT's top line, for example, and you see dangerous players that have to be accounted for. And it seems all teams good enough to get here have good goaltending nowadays.

"Parity," UMD coach Scott Sandelin said. "You look at the last four or five years, all the first time (NCAA champions). It's made college hockey a lot better. There are no easy games in college hockey at any point of the year. It's hard sometimes as a coach. I think it's been great for our game."

"You might perceive some upsets," legendary Boston College coach Jerry York said, "but just like basketball, it's about who is the best team on that particular night. In hockey, there's not a wide disparity between the leagues now. Even the bottom parts of leagues are strong now.

"I think the field is very balanced. I think it's a lot closer from the really top end teams and what is generally considered 16 and below."

And it all started with plucky Holy Cross, one of those teams out of a one-bid league that had to win its conference tournament to get in. Minnesota, meanwhile, eased its way through a WCHA championship while posting 25 regular-season wins. After sweeping Alaska Anchorage in the first round of the WCHA playoffs, the Gophers were stunned at the Final Five, losing a crazy 8-7 overtime game to St. Cloud State in the semifinals before losing to Wisconsin 4-0 in the third-place game.

Despite those upsets, the Gophers were comfortably a No. 1 regional seed, second overall, and were placed in the closest regional to them, which was in Grand Forks. In North Dakota's building, the home of Minnesota's biggest rival.

We didn't know it at the time, but Minnesota was in a bad spot, and Holy Cross took full advantage.

I can't give the Crusaders all the credit. There had been close 1 vs 4 games prior, and there had been one-bid league champions making things very interesting against high-seeded teams. But Holy Cross was the first to get over the hump, and they've had a lot of company in that winner's circle since.

However, as the folks at BCInterruption have noted, there is a trend with the high seed teams that do survive the opening weekend muckedy muck: They're all close to home.

Since 2008, top regional seeds that are playing in-state are 11-1 in their regional games. Those that travel to their regional by bus are 17-3. The top seeds that fly to their regional site are just 7-13 (hi, North Dakota!).

It shouldn't matter, because the vast majority of teams are located within a two-hour flight of their regional (UMD flew two hours to Worcester for this round, going straight out of Duluth via a charter flight). But clearly it makes a difference.

(The same story shows No. 4 seeds are 16-19 when flying, versus 5-2 when playing in state, in case you were curious.)

Not making any predictions on this matchup, by the way. I have no idea how it will play out on Friday. What I do know is that both teams played well down the stretch. Providence won ten straight after an uneven 6-5-1 run from Christmas through a 3-1 loss to New Hampshire on Jan. 30. UMD won seven straight to shake off an 11-14-5 record and wiggle into the NCAA field as an at-large team.

And if UMD wins, it won't be a tremendous upset. Ten years ago, we would have looked at it differently. But Holy Cross vs Minnesota in Grand Forks changed that.

Monday Musings: Seniors, Kaskisuo Secure Sweep

Fitting, I must say, that UMD's Senior Night ceremony led to some unheralded seniors making huge contributions in the Bulldogs' latest key victory.

Pregame, head coach Scott Sandelin lauded his eight-man class, saying "Some have been great contributors. Some maybe don't feel like they have been but they have. Every guy's a valuable member."

Even better: This wasn't their last home game. UMD's win Friday guaranteed one more series on home ice, which we'll talk about in a smidge.

In UMD's 3-1 win Saturday, senior defenseman Willie Corrin opened the scoring with his first goal of the season in the first period, and classmate Charlie Sampair gave UMD the lead for good early in the third.

Corrin has been more confident in the offensive zone as of late, and on his goal, he drove down the left boards with the puck and cut to the front, where his initial shot was stopped by Miami goalie Jay Williams before he put the rebound home. 

Miami was able to assert itself defensively more on Saturday than Friday. The RedHawks did a very good job cutting down on scoring chances, holding UMD to just 21 shots on the night and pestering the Bulldogs throughout the night.

I thought captain Sean Kuraly led the way for Miami from the start. He was strong in all three zones, and was a beast on the penalty kill for Miami as UMD was held to one shot in two scoreless power plays in the first period. Freshman Jack Roslovic was very good as well, after being hard to find for a chunk of Friday's affair.

Miami tied the game in the second period, as Kiefer Sherwood was set up at the doorstep by Kuraly and Roslovic. That goal came in the final two minutes of the second period, but it wasn't tied for long.

Less than two and a half minutes into the third, Tony Cameranesi stole a puck near the blue line and got a shot on Williams, who made the initial save but kicked the rebound into the left circle, where Sampair was able to drive it home for a 2-1 lead. Sampair is close to his 100th career game (96 after Saturday), and it'd be great to get him there. He struggled to get in the lineup as a freshman, and suffered a season-ending injury as he was really gaining traction in his sophomore season. 100 might not be a ton of games for a four-year guy, but for Sampair, I believe it's a meaningful accomplishment.

Sophomore goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo made that lead stand up, making a great save on Kuraly late when Miami went with six skaters. He made 20 saves on the night and 40 on 41 shots in the series, securing the NCHC goaltending title with a 1.69 goals against, edging out North Dakota's Cam Johnson, who finished with a 1.80 goals against in league play after allowing three goals on four shots in the first 12 minutes of UND's eventual 5-4 win over Western Michigan Saturday.

Kaskisuo is up to a .926 save percentage on the season, including .932 in 23 NCHC games. He is currently two-thousandths of a percentage point ahead of Alex Stalock (.924 in 2008-09) for the best save percentage in a single season in program history.

(His .917 from last year ranks third, behind Stalock and Josh Johnson, who was a .922 goalie as a senior in 2006-07).

I'm checking with UMD on this, but the Bulldogs' team save percentage of .922 is likely a single-season record as well (.920 in 2008-2009 is the highest I can find).

By the way, Kaskisuo's last six starts: 4-2 record, 1.16 goals against, .959 save percentage.

Seems that's pretty good.

******

The mission last week was to get home ice. That's accomplished, but there is a lot more work to be done.

The math wizards at College Hockey News say UMD is better than a 50/50 shot to make the national tournament, but I guarantee you that chance reduces to near zero if UMD doesn't win this weekend.

It's Miami again, and this time it's a best of three to move on to Target Center and the NCHC Frozen Faceoff. If UMD wins the series in two straight, I believe the Bulldogs would need only one win at Target Center to secure an NCAA bid, but that depends on who else advances in the tournament.

(The home teams in this weekends' playoff series are 14-0-2 against the visiting teams, including UMD's 3-0-1 mark against Miami. Normally, I'd be inclined to pick some upsets this weekend, but I don't know where I would start on that venture.)

The Bulldogs have gotten hot here, but the hole they were in was pretty deep. To keep playing beyond this weekend, UMD must stay hot.

Huskies Extend the Summer

Not that summer ends when the Duluth Huskies are done, but it's nice to see the local baseball season extended.

After all, no one is worried about the Twins or Brewers doing anything this season.

(Let's be nice, though. The Twins just made headlines by setting a Major League Baseball record, scoring 23 straight runs off home runs over six games. Probably a good thing, because the hitters had three hits in 48 at bats with runners in scoring position.)

Anyway, the Huskies have been a good franchise in the Northwoods League since joining in 2003. They haven't always drawn wonderfully well, but we haven't heard a lot of threats -- real or implied -- about the franchise leaving or being dissolved. Couldn't say that about the Duluth-Superior Dukes when they were around, because it never seemed like there was a full season without someone saying the team would be on the move if attendance didn't improve.

Duluth has experienced some success in the league, but the Huskies hadn't made the playoffs since 2007 before this summer. They hadn't played in the league championship series since 2004.

Until this year.

Duluth advanced to the Summer Collegiate World Series with a 2-1 win over Waterloo Tuesday in Waterloo. The Huskies won the series 2-0.

On paper, it appeared to be a bit of a mismatch. Waterloo beat the Huskies by eight games in the standings, and Duluth had to get in based on overall record, because the Bucks won both halves in the North Division. Of course, baseball games aren't played on paper. They're played on the internet.

Wait.

Anyway, the Huskies bucked that trend throughout the season, taking eight of ten meetings from the Bucks. Kept it going when it mattered most, too, and now Duluth has a chance to play for a championship.

Wade Stadium rocks when it's nice out and people are drawn in. The Huskies really had it going down the stretch of the regular season, bringing in some huge crowds that took advantage of good weather to see a hot baseball team.

The Dukes had those nights, too, but when you pay players, the bottom line is a little tougher to deal with. I don't know what the attendance average is for the Huskies to post a profit, but I know it was higher for the Dukes because the players drew salaries, no matter how small. And the Dukes didn't have enough nice crowds to keep things going.

Once other cities started building nice, new stadiums, Duluth was priced out of that league.

The Northwoods League is a perfect fit. Players aren't paid a salary, and travel expenses are kept as small as possible. The Huskies will be just fine in this league, and stretches like the weather we've been seeing should help put more bodies in the seats at the Wade.

GM Craig Smith and field boss Daniel Hersey have done a magnificent job with this club. Sometimes, you look at the batting order and think they're a little short offensively compared to other clubs, but Duluth gets timely hitting from all over the place (they had a comeback win recently where almost all the major damage was done by the bottom of the order), and they pitch as well as anyone in the league.

Hopefully, Hersey gets a chance to give the ball to league Pitcher of the Year Clay Chapman in the title series. If he does, you can bet the Huskies will have a chance to win that game. And the way this team has been pitching, they have a chance against either Lakeshore or Madison.

It's fun to see relevant baseball from someone this deep into the summer, isn't it?

The Death of the BCS

We've hashed away at this for years.

For Yahoo! Sports' Dan Wetzel, the subject was enough for him to turn into a book that -- dare I say -- helped spring everything that's happened as of late.

And, now, it's time to (finally) lay the BCS to rest.

A committee of university presidents approved a plan for a four-team playoff put forward by commissioners of the top football conferences.

Rejoice!

Apparently not one to brag, Wetzel instead recognizes that this necessary step was simply a step and not anything remotely close to perfect. Witness, if you will, how the bowl people took the news.

So they wouldn't even give us a high school-style playoff. They pretended it would ruin the regular season (it won't), that it would curb bowl-game charitable donations (they actually give extremely little), that it would be an impediment to student-athletes' academic progress (everyone always laughed at that one).

They said a lot of things. Almost none of it was true.

In 2010, Rick Baker, president of the AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic, said, "A playoff system would ruin the AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic."

Tuesday, Rick Baker, president of the AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic, said, "It's a great day for college football. We congratulate the conference commissioners and presidents for their diligent work to enhance the postseason."

It was all the ridiculousness, all the dishonesty, all the worst parts of college sports. And none of the good stuff, just one measly championship game, often with a disputed matchup, 40-something days after the season ended. 

Wetzel's column, by the way, is a must read. Just do it.

We talked about the BCS in November, when the flawed formula rendered every conference championship game totally meaningless. No matter what happened, LSU was going to play Alabama for the national title. There was nothing that could be done about it.

So much for preserving a meaningful regular season, right? The most important games of said regular season meant were worth less than this blog.

We're supposed to believe a four-team playoff will preserve the regular season in college football.

Super.

I'm glad we get to preserve quality non-conference competition like Florida Atlantic-Alabama, Jacksonville State-Arkansas, Bowling Green-Florida, Northern Iowa-Wisconsin, UAB-Ohio State, New Mexico-Texas, and so many others.

Yes, college basketball powerhouses play tomato cans once in a while. But as long as the system in college football lacks any sort of inclusion come postseason selection time, there is little incentive for powerhouses to take on serious challenges. Instead, Oklahoma will travel to UTEP and pat itself on the back for taking that road game.

In fact, if you look at Phil Steele's preseason top ten (Florida State, Oklahoma, LSU, USC, Alabama, Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Wisconsin, Florida), here are the true road games that are being played in non-conference action:

Florida State at South Florida
Oklahoma at UTEP
Texas at Mississippi
Wisconsin at Oregon State
Florida at Florida State

You'll count one -- ONE! -- head-to-head game among the ten teams. Obviously, there is some head-to-head from conference rivals in the group. However, Florida-Georgia and Oklahoma-Texas are at neutral sites, and LSU-Alabama only requires that the kickers show up for the game. LSU travels to Florida, but neither LSU nor Alabama have to play Georgia.

But look at the system in college football.

Lose a game, and you're out.

What's the incentive for anyone to schedule a real road game against a real opponent? Why bother?

Plus, if you're an elite program, why would you bring in an elite team for a game, when you can fill your stadium just as easily when you play a tomato can?

Until there is a system that allows teams to lose games -- one that actually encourages real non-conference scheduling -- we're left to dream.

Well, that and look at a schedule grid and pick out matchups that could be happening Sept. 1 if anyone had any guts.

(I already have done some work on this. How about we start with LSU-Oklahoma, Arkansas-Wisconsin, Florida-Texas, and Florida State-Stanford?)

It's a start, and we're all glad to see the BCS go. But college football still has some work ahead, as those with common sense try to cut through all the crap that's been left by those who lack it.

High School Hockey Playoff Schedule

Here is the schedule for all three Northeastern Minnesota-esque boys' high school hockey sections.

SECTION 7AA
Saturday, February 18
9 St. Francis at 8 Cambridge, 7pm

Tuesday, February 21
 St. Francis/Cambridge winner at 1 Duluth East, Heritage Center, 7pm
5 Cloquet/Esko/Carlton at 4 Elk River, 7pm
6 Forest Lake at 3 Grand Rapids, 7pm
7 St. Michael-Albertville at 2 Andover, 7pm

Saturday, February 25
Amsoil Arena
St. Francis/Cambridge/Duluth East winner vs. CEC/Elk River winner, 10am
Forest Lake/Grand Rapids winner vs. St. Michael-Albertville/Andover winner, 12pm

Thursday, March 1
Amsoil Arena
Championship, 7:30pm

SECTION 7A
Tuesday, February 21
 9 Ely at 8 Silver Bay, 7:30pm
10 Two Harbors at 7 Eveleth Gilbert, 7:30pm

Thursday, February 23
 Ely/Silver Bay winner at 1 Duluth Marshall, 7:30pm
5 Virginia/MIB at 4 Duluth Denfeld, 7:30pm
6 Greenway at 3 International Falls, 7:30pm
Eveleth-Gilbert/Two Harbors winner at 2 Hibbing, 7:30pm

Saturday, February 25
Ely/Silver Bay/Duluth Marshall winner vs. Virginia/Duluth Denfeld winner, at Hibbing, 1pm
Greenway/IFalls winner vs. Eveleth-Gilbert/Two Harbors/Hibbing winner, at Grand Rapids, 7:30pm

Wednesday, February 29
Amsoil Arena
Championship, 7:30pm

SECTION 5A
Tuesday, February 21
9 Moose Lake at 8 Mora/Hinckley-Finlayson, 7pm
11 Pine City/Rush City at 6 Princeton, 7pm
10 North Branch at 7 Legacy Christian Academy, 7pm

Thursday, February 23
Moose Lake/Mora winner at 1 Hermantown, 7pm
5 Proctor at 4 Sauk Rapids, 7pm
Pine City/Princeton winner at 3 St. Cloud Cathedral, 7pm
North Branch/Legacy Christian at 2 Rogers, 7pm

Saturday, February 25
Proctor/Sauk Rapids winner vs. Moose Lake/Mora/Hermantown winner, at high seed, 7pm
Pine City/Princeton/St. Cloud Cathedral winner vs. North Branch/Legacy Christian/Rogers winner, at high seed, 2pm

Friday, March 2
Heritage Center
 Championship, 7pm

Gearing Up For High School Playoffs

The boys' high school hockey season is winding down. Most Minnesota teams have two to four games left on their schedules, which will wrap up by next weekend at the latest.

There are three sections that feature area teams, and there's a good chance we'll have three area teams in the state tournament. However, there's a lot to decide before we get to that point, and things tend to change.

Section 7A
While it might seem Duluth Marshall is the obvious favorite, we've danced this dance before in the section.

Last year, Hibbing was not the No. 1 seed and was not the section favorite. Yet, there they were, giving Hermantown everything it could handle in the state semifinals. That came after the Bluejackets blasted favored Virginia/MIB 5-0 in the section final.

This team could do that again. Guys like Josh Bestul, Adam Johnson, and Mike Pechovnik were big parts of the team last year, and they will do it again this time around. Hibbing's team goaltending numbers aren't terribly impressive, but goaltending is obviously a big part of any team this time of year. A hot goalie at the right time can make a team into a champion, but a championship-caliber team is nothing without quality big-spot goaltending.

Marshall should be the top seed. The Hilltoppers had a bit of a down year last season, hovering around .500 but then giving Virginia a heck of a tussle in the section semifinal. Star Judd Peterson (St. Cloud State commit) averages nearly three points per game, and he leads a group of six players over 20 points on the season. Marshall plays tough defense and gets quality goaltending, so the Hilltoppers should be stout.

Virginia could be a factor, with Mark Krebsbach leading the offensive charge. But the Blue Devils don't have the quality depth they've had in the past. International Falls might be a darkhorse.

In the end, though, it appears we're looking at a Marshall/Hibbing section final at Amsoil Arena Feb. 29.

Section 5A
This looks too easy. Hermantown is 22-0, is outscoring its opponents 134-34, and has more depth than virtually anyone in Class A. It's also a very well-coached team, making it even more difficult to beat.

However, the Hawks know they will see challenges in the section tournament. Hermantown will be seeded first, but right behind them will be Rogers and St. Cloud Cathedral, teams that played the Hawks very tight during the regular season (2-1 games against both).

I don't see any other serious threats in the section tournament, as the rest of 5A lacks the talent and depth to match up against anyone in the top three. If there are upsets, they will be monumental, and they'll involve goalies standing on their heads in fluky 2-1 or 1-0 games.

(I have to give the nod here to Moose Lake, though I don't see the Rebels winning more than one game in the playoffs. Josh Cisar has 52 goals, and brother Tyler has 71 points. They're a great tandem, and it's a great story, even if the team doesn't have enough to go far.)

Section 7AA
This race is four or five teams deep, potentially. Duluth East is 21-1 and the favorite, and there's no question a Greyhounds team that hits on all cylinders will not be beaten by anyone in the section.

However, there's a line of teams that would like a shot. Grand Rapids is probably the second-best team in the section, but don't discount Andover. The Northwest Suburban team has some nice wins this season, including one over Cloquet/Esko/Carlton. These teams should be seeded second and third, with CEC seeded fourth or fifth, spots they will contend with Elk River for.

I tend to think this is a two-horse race, with East and Grand Rapids. The Thunderhawks, however, have been banged up all season long, and Monday's loss to Hibbing certainly opens the prospect that they will have to deal with being the third seed. It means a tougher first-round game, and it means being the visiting team on the scoreboard for the section semifinals, in all likelihood.

East has the scoring depth and defensemen to win, but it's fair to wonder about the Greyhounds' goaltending after that Minnetonka disaster, as well as a rather uneven performance Monday night against CEC.

If someone can protect their net and catch East on a day where its own net drive isn't as good as it can be, this team is no different than any other. It can be picked off.

Ron Roenicke Outthinks Himself, Puts Brewers in Precarious Position

By all accounts, Ron Roenicke has done a very good job in his first season as a major-league manager. He's handled platoon situations and injuries well, and his quiet, modest demeanor is a good fit for the club. Not only that, but his door is open, and the players seem to like the way he communicates.

He's a huge reason the Brewers are three wins away from the World Series. Unfortunately, though, he's also a huge reason the Brewers are still three wins away from the World Series.

Game 3 of the National League Championship Series was Wednesday night in St. Louis. With the series even at a game apiece, it was looked upon as a crucial game, especially for a visiting team coming off a 12-3 loss and struggling to pitch effectively outside of Yovani Gallardo, Wednesday's starter.

Roenicke decided to make a lineup change, hoping to impact the team's somewhat-struggling offense without killing it defensively. Center fielder Nyjer Morgan was benched in favor of veteran Mark Kotsay, who matched up well against Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter, but is -- to say the least -- a liability in center field.

In making the change, Roenicke ignored the fact that Kotsay is a clear No. 4 on a team with four guys who have played center field (Morgan, Carlos Gomez, Jerry Hairston). He also ignored the fact that the Cardinals have typically done a very good job of putting the ball in play against Gallardo, meaning the team would need good defensive play more than usual.

So what happens? With one out in the first inning, Kotsay walks. Then Ryan Braun gets hit by a pitch. With Prince Fielder hitting, though, Kotsay appeared to fall asleep at second base. Fielder smacked a line drive to center field that was caught. Inexplicably, Kotsay was halfway to third base, and was doubled off rather easily to kill a potential first-inning rally.

Then, after a leadoff single by Rafael Furcal in the first inning, Kotsay misplays a bloop by John Jay that virtually every center fielder in Major League Baseball -- including Morgan, Gomez, and Hairston -- would have easily caught. That bloop turned into a double, and before the dust settles, the Brewers are down 4-0.

Kotsay hit a solo home run in the third and reached base three times, but the damage was done. Cardinals win, 4-3.

I'm not about throwing good managers under the bus. But Roenicke outmanaged himself in this case. He overthought a situation that didn't require a lot of thought. If Morgan isn't going to hit, and Gomez is an obvious upgrade defensively, get him out there. Instead, Roenicke told the media types after the game that he basically didn't even think about playing Gomez.

That's worth a facepalm. If you have decided your No. 1 option isn't good enough, why would you do anything but start the No. 2 guy? Moreover, why would you ever start your No. 4 guy when the top three guys are all healthy and available?

If it's the worst mistake Roenicke makes over a long and meaningful managerial career, it's certainly forgivable. But in the short-term, with a fanbase that hasn't seen its team make the World Series in 29 years, it's absolutely inexcusable.