I posted these on Twitter earlier in the week, but I figured I'd expand on it. I'm not big on making week-by-week predictions on the blog anymore, but you can follow me for the occasional pick and plenty of bad jokes and snark.
Here are my division picks, with some commentary.
NFC EAST
1. NY Giants
2. Philadelphia
3. Dallas
4. Washington
The Giants are still the best. The Eagles are not far behind, and I think without the ridiculous hype surrounding them, they will improve. Dallas showed me something Wednesday, but Tony Romo hasn't really put it together since the 2007 season when they had TO, and even that team flamed out when it counted the most. Love RG3, but I don't think he makes Washington a contender right away.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota
Sorry, everyone, but the Packers still have to be considered the division favorites. An improved defense makes them a more complete team, but unless Cedric Benson works miracles in the backfield, they won't approach 15-1. Chicago needs to show the secondary it will take to slow down the Packers and Lions. The Lions have to keep their heads straight and play defense. Minnesota is better, and could make a run for third place if Detroit falters. But the Vikings aren't nearly as talented as their division brethren right now.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans
2. Carolina
3. Atlanta
4. Tampa Bay
Bounty scandal or not, the Saints are the best team in this division. Definite Super Bowl threat. Carolina's defense is a huge key for the Panthers. The pieces exist on offense. Atlanta is highly overrated by many. There's just no reason to trust Mike Smith or Matt Ryan at this point. If Josh Freeman puts things together, Tampa Bay could surprise with new coach Greg Schiano, who did an amazing job as a college coach at Rutgers.
NFC WEST
1. St. Louis
2. San Francisco
3. Seattle
4. Arizona
It's a hunch, pure and simple. Jeff Fisher, an improved secondary, and a healthy Sam Bradford should mean good things for the Rams, despite an insane roster turnover. San Francisco takes a step back because Alex Smith is still Alex Smith. The 49ers weren't evaluating Peyton Manning for no reason. Seattle has a rookie at quarterback in Russell Wilson. I love Wilson, but his targets are shaky, as is the defense. Arizona won't be any good until the quarterback problem is dealt with.
NFC SEEDS
1. NY Giants
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. St. Louis
5. Chicago
6. Philadelphia
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Green Bay over NY Giants
AFC EAST
1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. NY Jets
4. Miami
While the Patriots still don't have a good defense, it's good enough. It isn't as good as Buffalo's, and that's why the Bills pass the Jets in the standings. The Jets just have too much drama and not enough skill talent around Mark Sanchez. As anyone who gets HBO can attest, the Dolphins just don't look to be any good.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Cleveland
The Ravens are running a no-huddle, which means Joe Flacco better be good. I like his chances. Pittsburgh wants to run the ball, and the Steelers are counting on a healthy Rashard Mendenhall, something that might be too much to ask for at this point. The Bengals will slide back a bit, and the Browns will move forward, making for a really, really interesting Battle of Ohio for third place. Oh, wait.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Indianapolis
4. Jacksonville
I expect the Texans to roll through this division, with only a small challenge from the Titans. Tennessee needs Jake Locker to be ready, but luckily he can give the rock to Chris Johnson. The Colts will surprise, but don't have enough horses -- no pun intended -- to contend for a playoff spot. Jacksonville is in flux, with a running back who held out and a quarterback who looked completely overwhelmed last year.
AFC WEST
1. Denver
2. San Diego
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland
All four were close last year, and I think the top three will be this time around. Was a tough pick, but I went with the team that has the best quarterback. So yeah, I'm banking on Peyton Manning being healthier than some allege he is. The Chargers will be improved and could sneak into the playoffs. We remember how bad Romeo Crennel's teams looked in Cleveland, right? Well, I don't see it getting much better in Kansas City just because he's a nicer guy than Todd Haley. Oh, and as much as I've grown to really like the Raiders, this isn't going to go well in the short term.
AFC SEEDS
1. Baltimore
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Denver
5. Buffalo
6. Pittsburgh
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Baltimore over Houston
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Friday, September 07, 2012
Monday, July 16, 2012
Random Rabble: July 16
Former Rutgers football player Eric LeGrand penned this week's Monday Morning Quarterback at SI.com, filling in for the incomparable Peter King. LeGrand, who suffered a serious spinal cord injury on a kickoff play in 2010, was signed as a free agent by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this spring. The Bucs are now coached by LeGrand's college coach, Greg Schiano. LeGrand insists he will walk again, and also addresses the issue of player safety on kickoffs. NFL people have at least discussed the idea of removing kickoffs from the sport.
Couldn't agree with LeGrand more. Generally, you'd expect someone like LeGrand -- whose life was forever altered by a chance happening on an admittedly dangerous football play -- to at least be on the fence. Instead, LeGrand acknowledges that what happened to him is not something that happens with any kind of regularity.
He's right. A lot of players can make a career out of special teams, and removing kickoff plays from the game would certainly take some excitement away.
Former UMD star Tim Stapleton signed a deal with Dinamo Minsk of the Kontinental Hockey League last week. Stapleton talked to the Winnipeg Free Press about his decision.
Stapleton did indeed have a good season for Winnipeg, but the lack of interest in an undersized forward pushing 30 is not awfully surprising. I figured a lot of guys would be in the same boat, faced with deciding between an offer to play overseas and the prospect of waiting for the CBA negotiations to play out before getting any serious NHL offers.
I don't know what he's making with Minsk, but it's probably more than he'd make on an NHL deal. With Minsk, Stapleton also has the security of knowing there will be a season, something we can't say in the NHL right now.
Speaking of the ongoing NHL CBA negotiations, if the reports from Friday are at all accurate, we'll be here for a while.
Um.
I tweeted Saturday that the owners should be ashamed of this offer. It's ridiculous. It sends an awfully poor message about where things stand, as well as the chances of the league starting its next season on time.
It's also another sign that ownership wants the players to help save them from themselves. Of course, as we learned in the NBA -- where nearly a third of the season was lost so teams could throw eight-figure salaries at guys like Jeremy Lin -- nothing can save the owners from themselves. They will always find a way to overspend and stretch their resources way too thin.
The only benefit to the players taking this one-sided deal would be getting to watch the owners find a way to keep overspending.
You'll also note in the report that owners want entry-level deals stretched to five years instead of three. Call me crazy, but does anyone else think this would only add to the number of players looking to get away from the teams that drafted them, like Justin Schultz did? You can swallow a three-year commitment to a team you might not want to play for, but five is a ton.
I can see the owners' side on this, because there is a lot of money and time and effort put into the draft, and allowing only three years on the maximum entry-level deal means teams have to spend even more money.
It's totally just a thought, but I'm curious if it is something that could play out. Of course, the CBA negotiation also presents a chance to get rid of the rule that allows drafted players to become free agents, even if the team that drafted the player wants to sign him. If that happens, it doesn't matter what happens to entry-level deals.
Take it from someone who has gotten injured on a kickoff: I think kickoffs in the NFL should return to the way they used to be, because lots of football players can make a career out of playing on special teams, and the new system takes some of the thrill and excitement of the game out.
Couldn't agree with LeGrand more. Generally, you'd expect someone like LeGrand -- whose life was forever altered by a chance happening on an admittedly dangerous football play -- to at least be on the fence. Instead, LeGrand acknowledges that what happened to him is not something that happens with any kind of regularity.
He's right. A lot of players can make a career out of special teams, and removing kickoff plays from the game would certainly take some excitement away.
Former UMD star Tim Stapleton signed a deal with Dinamo Minsk of the Kontinental Hockey League last week. Stapleton talked to the Winnipeg Free Press about his decision.
"It wasn't an easy decision. I even woke up today thinking, 'Man, what did I do?' But it's just something that made sense, especially turning 30 (next week). I've got to look out for life after hockey."
Stapleton posted career highs in goals (11) and points (27) and managed to score three game-winners while working predominantly on the Jets' fourth line.
But with a handful of players/prospects in the system ready to grab his spot, this popular and respected teammate was not atop the priority list of an organization that stressed size as one of its key off-season needs.
"It's too bad. I did everything I possibly could because I wanted to come back but I think their main focus was they wanted to get bigger," said Stapleton.
"I've been dealing with this situation (all) my career as far as getting into the NHL. And then when I get in I'm still dealing with it. I sat down with a lot of people, including my family, and we weighed the pros and cons. I had to look at what is in front of me and all I had was Russia.
"I guess now I get to become a fan now and I'll definitely be following the team and all the guys."
Stapleton did indeed have a good season for Winnipeg, but the lack of interest in an undersized forward pushing 30 is not awfully surprising. I figured a lot of guys would be in the same boat, faced with deciding between an offer to play overseas and the prospect of waiting for the CBA negotiations to play out before getting any serious NHL offers.
I don't know what he's making with Minsk, but it's probably more than he'd make on an NHL deal. With Minsk, Stapleton also has the security of knowing there will be a season, something we can't say in the NHL right now.
Speaking of the ongoing NHL CBA negotiations, if the reports from Friday are at all accurate, we'll be here for a while.
According to RDS Insider Renaud Lavoie's Twitter account, the NHL made its initial proposal for a new collective bargaining agreement to the NHLPA in Toronto today:
NHL proposal to players: 1-reduce players hockey related revenues to 46% from 57 %. 2-10 seasons in NHL before being UFA.
3-contracts limites to 5 years 4-no more salary arbitration. 5- entry-level contract 5 years instead of 3.
To Clarify the initial proposal:
1. Right now it's 57-43 in favor of the players. Owners want it to be 54-46 in favor of the owners
2. In the last CBA negotiations during the 2004-05 season elimination, the NHL agreed to accelerating unrestricted free agency from 10 years to age 27 (or 7 years).
3. There are currently no contract limits, which Wild fans learned last week when Zach Parise and Ryan Suter were given 13-year deals by Minnesota.
4. There's currently player elected and club elected arbitration
5. Is self-explanatory above.
Um.
I tweeted Saturday that the owners should be ashamed of this offer. It's ridiculous. It sends an awfully poor message about where things stand, as well as the chances of the league starting its next season on time.
It's also another sign that ownership wants the players to help save them from themselves. Of course, as we learned in the NBA -- where nearly a third of the season was lost so teams could throw eight-figure salaries at guys like Jeremy Lin -- nothing can save the owners from themselves. They will always find a way to overspend and stretch their resources way too thin.
The only benefit to the players taking this one-sided deal would be getting to watch the owners find a way to keep overspending.
You'll also note in the report that owners want entry-level deals stretched to five years instead of three. Call me crazy, but does anyone else think this would only add to the number of players looking to get away from the teams that drafted them, like Justin Schultz did? You can swallow a three-year commitment to a team you might not want to play for, but five is a ton.
I can see the owners' side on this, because there is a lot of money and time and effort put into the draft, and allowing only three years on the maximum entry-level deal means teams have to spend even more money.
It's totally just a thought, but I'm curious if it is something that could play out. Of course, the CBA negotiation also presents a chance to get rid of the rule that allows drafted players to become free agents, even if the team that drafted the player wants to sign him. If that happens, it doesn't matter what happens to entry-level deals.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
UMD's Resiliency Key to Playoff Run
I doubt anyone is really surprised to see the UMD football team in the regional final Saturday. They've been a staple in the Division II playoffs in recent years, and UMD has made four straight Super Region Three finals (wins over Grand Valley State and Augustana, with a loss to Grand Valley in 2009). This is the third straight year that the Super Region Three final will be contested at Malosky Stadium, an amazing accomplishment for a football program that hadn't tasted anything close to this level of success before its first title in 2008.
UMD, though, didn't follow the same path as prior years in getting to this point.
UMD rolled through the 2008 and 2010 championship years with matching 15-0 records. The Bulldogs were rarely challenged in the regular season, and outside of the 2008 road win over top-ranked Grand Valley State, really didn't pull any upsets to win the title. There was adversity in 2010, with injuries to Isaac Odim and Brad Foss and the playoff suspension of leading receiver D.J. Winfield. But UMD overcame it, beating Delta State for the national championship.
That late-season and playoff adversity was a harbinger of things to come for the football program. The 2011 season started well, with a road win over an amped-up Augustana team that was hell-bent on making up for last year's playoff loss in Duluth. The Bulldogs, though, fell to Wayne State (Nebraska) 7-0 in late September, marking their first NSIC loss since they rejoined the league when the North Central Conference died in 2007.
If that wasn't enough, UMD turned in its worst performance in years in losing to St. Cloud State 35-7 in October, marking UMD's first two-loss regular season since Bob Nielson returned as head coach. The Huskies were better than UMD in virtually every area, and the score really wasn't said to be deceiving.
However, the Bulldogs responded to both losses. After the Wayne game, UMD went to Bemidji and beat a good BSU squad. After they fell to St. Cloud State, UMD needed to win its remaining games to qualify for the Division II playoffs. The Bulldogs did that, including a solid win over Minnesota State in the season finale.
In the playoffs, UMD has shown its resiliency, its mental toughness, its mettle, whatever you want to call it. This might not be the most talented team Nielson has taken into the Division II playoffs, but they're tough and experienced, and they know how to win in the postseason.
Against Colorado State-Pueblo Saturday, we saw how tough this UMD team really is. Pueblo scored on its opening drive, then didn't score an offensive touchdown for the remainder of the first half. UMD's defense stiffened throughout the game, holding the potent Thunderwolves to just 224 yards, a season low.
The Bulldogs offense was content to grind things out, wearing down the smaller Pueblo front seven with a punishing ground game. Were it not for an errant snap that gave CSUP a touchdown right before halftime, there's a chance UMD could have won going away. Instead, the Bulldogs had to respond to that late touchdown, and they did on the opening drive of the third quarter, impressively going the length of the field for a go-ahead touchdown.
After a CSUP touchdown drive gave the Thunderwolves a 21-17 lead, UMD had to again respond to adversity. Quarterback Chase Vogler threw an interception in the end zone, giving CSUP the ball back after a long UMD drive that ended up empty. The defense came out -- desperately needing a stop -- and forced a three and out. After an Aaron Roth punt return touchdown was called back by a penalty, Vogler ripped off a 31-yard run that led to Brian Lucas' one-yard score to cap the scoring.
UMD might not be capable of overwhelming opponents, but Todd Strop's defense has developed into a very good group. They shut down MSU in the season finale, made the necessary stops late in the game against Saginaw Valley State, keeping the Cardinals from scoring a game-changing or game-winning touchdown on a couple occasions. But their best performance of the season may have come against Pueblo.
With Wayne State -- not the one from Nebraska, this one is from Michigan -- coming in on Saturday, look for more out of this defense. UMD isn't as potent offensively as in past years, so they're going to need it as the Bulldogs look to grind out three more wins and pick up what could end up being the most improbable of national championships.
It may be improbable to some, but it really shouldn't be surprising. Nielson's teams have been known for their toughness and resiliency through tough times, and this one may be the most impressive in that regard. Come playoff time, there is nothing at all wrong with a team leaning on its toughness and experience to win close games.
In fact, it's often the best way to win.
UMD, though, didn't follow the same path as prior years in getting to this point.
UMD rolled through the 2008 and 2010 championship years with matching 15-0 records. The Bulldogs were rarely challenged in the regular season, and outside of the 2008 road win over top-ranked Grand Valley State, really didn't pull any upsets to win the title. There was adversity in 2010, with injuries to Isaac Odim and Brad Foss and the playoff suspension of leading receiver D.J. Winfield. But UMD overcame it, beating Delta State for the national championship.
That late-season and playoff adversity was a harbinger of things to come for the football program. The 2011 season started well, with a road win over an amped-up Augustana team that was hell-bent on making up for last year's playoff loss in Duluth. The Bulldogs, though, fell to Wayne State (Nebraska) 7-0 in late September, marking their first NSIC loss since they rejoined the league when the North Central Conference died in 2007.
If that wasn't enough, UMD turned in its worst performance in years in losing to St. Cloud State 35-7 in October, marking UMD's first two-loss regular season since Bob Nielson returned as head coach. The Huskies were better than UMD in virtually every area, and the score really wasn't said to be deceiving.
However, the Bulldogs responded to both losses. After the Wayne game, UMD went to Bemidji and beat a good BSU squad. After they fell to St. Cloud State, UMD needed to win its remaining games to qualify for the Division II playoffs. The Bulldogs did that, including a solid win over Minnesota State in the season finale.
In the playoffs, UMD has shown its resiliency, its mental toughness, its mettle, whatever you want to call it. This might not be the most talented team Nielson has taken into the Division II playoffs, but they're tough and experienced, and they know how to win in the postseason.
Against Colorado State-Pueblo Saturday, we saw how tough this UMD team really is. Pueblo scored on its opening drive, then didn't score an offensive touchdown for the remainder of the first half. UMD's defense stiffened throughout the game, holding the potent Thunderwolves to just 224 yards, a season low.
The Bulldogs offense was content to grind things out, wearing down the smaller Pueblo front seven with a punishing ground game. Were it not for an errant snap that gave CSUP a touchdown right before halftime, there's a chance UMD could have won going away. Instead, the Bulldogs had to respond to that late touchdown, and they did on the opening drive of the third quarter, impressively going the length of the field for a go-ahead touchdown.
After a CSUP touchdown drive gave the Thunderwolves a 21-17 lead, UMD had to again respond to adversity. Quarterback Chase Vogler threw an interception in the end zone, giving CSUP the ball back after a long UMD drive that ended up empty. The defense came out -- desperately needing a stop -- and forced a three and out. After an Aaron Roth punt return touchdown was called back by a penalty, Vogler ripped off a 31-yard run that led to Brian Lucas' one-yard score to cap the scoring.
UMD might not be capable of overwhelming opponents, but Todd Strop's defense has developed into a very good group. They shut down MSU in the season finale, made the necessary stops late in the game against Saginaw Valley State, keeping the Cardinals from scoring a game-changing or game-winning touchdown on a couple occasions. But their best performance of the season may have come against Pueblo.
With Wayne State -- not the one from Nebraska, this one is from Michigan -- coming in on Saturday, look for more out of this defense. UMD isn't as potent offensively as in past years, so they're going to need it as the Bulldogs look to grind out three more wins and pick up what could end up being the most improbable of national championships.
It may be improbable to some, but it really shouldn't be surprising. Nielson's teams have been known for their toughness and resiliency through tough times, and this one may be the most impressive in that regard. Come playoff time, there is nothing at all wrong with a team leaning on its toughness and experience to win close games.
In fact, it's often the best way to win.
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