Showing posts with label studies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label studies. Show all posts

Thursday, June 17, 2010

College Coaches Want to See Aluminum Bats Stay

A few weeks ago, I posted a ramble about the case being made in California against using aluminum bats in amateur baseball.

To me, the premise is still pretty simple. We can't allow emotions to take over in a case where science seems to disagree with our emotional findings.

Despite the perceived safety concerns, coaches of elite NCAA baseball programs seem to support the idea of keeping aluminum bats in the sport.

According to an Associated Press survey of 24 coaches whose programs have won 1,000 or more games since 1985, 17 said they preferred aluminum and that there was no need to study the possibility of going to wood bats.

"I just don't see the aluminum bat hindering our game in any way," Mississippi State's John Cohen said. "In an ideal world, wood would be cheap, very cost efficient and it would be totally equitable. That can never happen."

Five coaches said they like wood better, but all acknowledged that aluminum probably is here to stay. Florida coach Kevin O'Sullivan said he had no opinion on the question and Arizona State coach Tim Esmay declined to participate in the survey as both teams prepared for the College World Series, which begins Saturday with TCU, Florida St., UCLA, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Clemson also in the field.

Proponents of metal argue that all 301 Division I programs play with the same thing and there's no risk of having top programs playing with better wooden bats, potentially skewing the results. They also like the scoring boost and say a $300 aluminum bat can last an entire 56-game season, while $100 wooden bats can break at any time.

Obviously, no poll is totally scientific, but these are some respected names in college baseball. Their support of aluminum is somewhat telling, since most have been around the sport for a long time, have produced players who have gone on to play high-level professional baseball.

The possible move to wood bats in Division II has increased the talk about using them in Division I. Safety concerns aside, there is so much offense in big-time college baseball that using wooden bats would at least potentially shorten games.

However, this might already happen without the wood. The standards for aluminum bats have changed, and by 2011 they will be even closer to behaving like wooden bats. As technology advances and the chasm between the two types of bat decreases, the need for using the more expensive wooden bats in college baseball will lessen dramatically.

It's a case of emotions unnecessarily stepping in the way of science and technology. No one wants to see another 21-14 game in the College World Series, but it appears we've moved far enough away from that.

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Stunner: Champ Isn't Always 'Best Team'

As you may have heard, Sunday is the Super Bowl.

(You'll notice that I have avoided saying much since the Packers were eliminated. I also didn't say a word about the Vikings being eliminated. It's partially by design. I figure that I'm not in Miami, and you're getting plenty of Super Bowl coverage elsewhere. I'll break down the matchup and throw out a prediction while I'm in Houghton this weekend.)

As the Colts and Saints prepare to lock horns, fans are left to marvel at the sight of No. 1 seeds advancing out of the respective conferences. It doesn't happen often.

Parity in sports is a hot-button subject. In the NFL, the objective these days is more to just get in the playoffs than it is to have a 14-2 season. Other sports, while still leaning toward the favorites, have had their moments.

Of course, it helps that other pro sports feature best-of-seven series in the playoffs. The format tends to tilt in favor of the superior team, since it's pretty hard to be an inferior team and win four of seven games.

If you do, it's probably because you deserve it, no matter your status in the regular season. After all, you just won four out of seven (or fewer) games against a good team. It's not a one-and-done fluke. It's more of the real deal.

For the NFL, a study confirms what most of us have known for many, many years.

The best team doesn't always win.

To quantify this, consider an alternate universe in which the NBA adopted the NFL’s format for the regular season and playoffs. Neil Paine of Basketball Reference constructed an approximation of such an NBA season, aligning teams to match as closely as possible the NBA’s 30-team league with the NFL’s 32-team league. With 16 games to go around, there aren’t enough games for every team to play every other one, like in the NFL — so, for instance, the Lakers don’t play the Cleveland Cavaliers in this alternate reality. Then Paine simulated 10,000 such NBA seasons, using teams’ stats through last Tuesday’s games to estimate their strength and therefore their likelihood of winning each game.

In these seasons, the usual suspects tend to finish on top. The Cavs win the “Super Bowl” 19.6% of the time, followed by the Lakers at 19.4% and the Celtics at 12.1%. The Hawks, Nuggets, Spurs, Jazz and Magic all also have at least a 6% chance of winning it all. However, some losing teams win in more than one of these simulated seasons, including the 76ers, the Clippers and the Kings.

Before this NBA season, Paine ran similar simulations, using the actual NBA season structure, and found that the best team has about a 48% chance of winning the title.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again.

Playoffs aren't designed to figure out which team is the best. They're designed for drama, television ratings, and revenue.

The only way for the best team to win the championship every year is to adopt the "everyone plays each other twice" system used by -- among others -- the English Premier League.

It will never happen. Instead, fans in the States have always enjoyed playoff competition, and they're not at all concerned about proving who the absolute best team is. That's why college football gets so much crap from American sports fans, after all.