PairWise Notes and Thoughts: The Final Day is Upon Us

MINNEAPOLIS -- Greetings from downtown Minneapolis, where the sirens are loud and the buildings are tall.

This is the final day of the season in college hockey. There are six conference championship games that will decide automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament. Most of the teams involved don't need those automatic bids to get in, but there are still a few teams' seasons on the line.

Before we get to that, the schedule for Sunday's selection announcements was sent out Friday by ESPN PR.

10am - The four No. 1 regional seeds are announced on Twitter @NCAAIceHockey.
10am hour - ESPN host and Frozen Four VOX John Buccigross will tweet which regionals the No. 1 seeds are assigned to @buccigross.
11am - NCAA Selection Show airs on ESPNU to show all four regionals in full; game times and TV will be announced for each regional (we don't know any of them yet).

The two Friday/Saturday regionals next weekend are Fargo and Providence. Saturday/Sunday regionals are Cincinnati and Manchester. Of the four, only Fargo is sold out, which means very limited tickets available for UMD fans (UMD will have an allotment to sell, but it isn't much, and priority season ticket holders will get first shot).

Of course, Fargo is also the only one within reasonable driving distance. Take the good with the bad, I suppose.

Anyway, here are the games for Saturday.

Atlantic Hockey: Air Force vs Robert Morris (winner in, loser out)
WCHA: Bowling Green at Michigan Tech (winner in, loser out)
Hockey East: Boston College vs UMass-Lowell (BC out with a loss, UML in either way)
Big Ten: Wisconsin vs Penn State (Wisconsin out with a loss, Penn State in either way)
ECAC: Harvard vs Cornell (both teams in)
NCHC: UMD vs North Dakota (both teams in)

College Hockey News' Probability Matrix is a good resource when it comes to who will get in. Between that and the predictor tools readily available on the internet box, the following is clear:

The following teams are in the tournament, no matter what happens Saturday: Denver, UMD, Harvard, Western Michigan, Minnesota, Boston University, UMass-Lowell, Union, North Dakota, Cornell, Penn State, Notre Dame.

As explained above, Atlantic Hockey and the WCHA will each be one-bid leagues. Further, the Bowling Green-Tech winner will be the No. 16 overall seed. If Robert Morris beats Air Force, it will be the No. 15 overall seed. If the Fighting Serratores win, they quite possibly will be above the No. 15 spot (looks like No. 12 is the most likely landing spot if Air Force wins).

Right now, Providence and Ohio State are the last two at-large teams in. If we have straight chalk in the Big Ten and Hockey East, those two teams will get in, knocking Boston College and Wisconsin out. If either Boston College or Wisconsin win (but not both), Ohio State is sent packing. If both BC and UW win, Providence is out, too.

A Western Michigan non-loss in the NCHC third place game likely means the NCHC will have three of the top four overall seeds. UMD and Denver are locked into the top three, no matter what happens. Western joins them if it doesn't lose to Denver. That's it. A win or tie will do just fine. And if last year -- when Denver played its backup goalie and a handful of guys who weren't lineup regulars -- is any indication, Western has a real shot. Even if WMU rests guys, it's a 50/50 game at worst.

How does UMD get to a No. 1 seed? It more than likely must beat North Dakota and definitely have Denver not beat Western Michigan. Again, even a tie in the third-place game will be fine for UMD, but the Bulldogs must win the NCHC title to have a chance at the No. 1 overall seed. There is at least one scenario where UMD is No. 1 overall with a loss Saturday night.

Where will UMD go? Great question. Friday night, before the B1G semifinals were finished up (Penn State beat Minnesota in double overtime, on a power play goal, on an extremely lame call, but I digress), I ran a bunch of scenarios and was able to get UMD into each of the four regionals.

Right now, I have no idea what will happen. Here's the big issue: attendance.

The selection committee has shown the willingness in past years to bend the bracket -- i.e. sending Providence as a No. 4 seed to the Providence regional two years ago, even though Providence by rule didn't have to go there -- to drive attendance and try to create a championship atmosphere.

So, for example, if the Friars get in, they're almost certainly heading to Providence. Depending on how the final field looks, it might take some work.

I believe the No. 1 overall seed -- whether it's Denver or UMD -- will go to Fargo. I know it sounds silly, since UND will be there and that team is rolling right now. But UND can't be a No. 4 seed, which would create the need for a non-NCHC team to go to Fargo (conference rivals can't meet in the opening round unless there are at least five teams from that league that get in, and the NCHC can't get more than four this year).

I believe the committee will send Western Michigan to Cincinnati, especially if it is a No. 1 seed. So, if this happens for example, I think UMD goes to Manchester. But, again, it depends on how the committee wants to try to drive attendance. UMD will not help attendance at any regional (sorry, Bulldog fans, but the only regional you guys will want to go to is sold out).

But Harvard, UMass-Lowell, Boston University, and Boston College can help in Manchester and maybe Providence. This becomes especially important if Providence doesn't get in.

So the easy answer: It's way too early to tell. Lots of options on the table right now.

But no matter what, UMD will be a No. 1 seed wherever it goes. And UMD vs North Dakota at Target Center should be fantastic. Can't wait.

PairWise Implications Abound for NCHC Frozen Faceoff

After last year's PairWise drama, it's kind of nice to see UMD sitting in the position it's in.

For probably around a month -- maybe longer -- the Bulldogs have been able to lose all remaining games and still comfortably get in the NCAA Tournament. Even last week, UMD would have remained on the No. 1 seed line (the top four PairWise teams get No. 1 regional seeds) even if swept by Miami in the first round of the NCHC playoffs.

As we get ready for the NCHC Frozen Faceoff, which starts Friday at Target Center in Minneapolis, the Bulldogs appear locked into a top three overall spot in the tournament when selections are announced Sunday (11am, ESPNU). The College Hockey News Probability Matrix and Jim Dahl both believe this to be true, and I'm not smart enough to do anything but parrot what the numbers say, so we'll go with it.

It shouldn't change how UMD plays this weekend, but how can it not be different than it was last year, when everyone knew UMD needed to win one and possibly two games to get in the NCAA Tournament?

(UMD ended up beating No. 1 North Dakota 4-2 in the semifinals before falling 3-1 to St. Cloud State in the championship. Had Minnesota beaten Michigan in the Big Ten title game, the Bulldogs would have missed the NCAA Tournament.)

To a man, players and staff have admitted this. Head coach Scott Sandelin talked a couple weeks ago about the "desperation" his team had no choice but to play with down the stretch last season, and it worked to the tune of a seven-game winning streak that ultimately made the difference between an NCAA trip and early tee times.

So with Denver and UMD locked into the top three overall, what is on the line this weekend?

Western Michigan is in the tournament. The Broncos are likely to finish fourth (39 percent per CHN), fifth (30), or sixth (22). If WMU ends up fourth, look for it to head to Cincinnati as the top seed in the Midwest Regional. That probably punches UMD's plane tickets out east, as Denver is 90 percent (again, per CHN) to finish No. 1 and most of us are under the assumption they'd go to Fargo in that scenario.

Unless ...

What if North Dakota ends up 13th or 14th? CHN lists it as a 27 percent possibility (13 percent 13th, 14 percent 14th). If that happens and WMU takes the fourth No. 1 seed, it'll send Harvard to Fargo, the Broncos to the land of Skyline Chili, and both UMD and Denver would have to go east.]

A straight-chalk (every high seed wins) bracket would get UND in as a 13th seed, however it bumps Western out of the top four. However, if Minnesota doesn't get the Big Ten autobid and Boston College gets hot in the Hockey East tourney, it could lead us to this final PairWise, which would introduce Harvard to lovely Fargo and a world where no one is picking the Crimson -- who would have a 14-game winning streak if this plays out -- to win their first-round game.

North Dakota is not in the tournament, but fans can breathe at least a little. Even if UND loses both games this weekend, Dahl has it at 89 percent for the Fighting Hawks to get in. If UND wins a game, either day, it is in. Two wins can get North Dakota as high as seventh overall (3 percent), a two-seed in its regional in Fargo.

If UND doesn't win a game, fans need to root for the likes of Boston College, Wisconsin, and Ohio State to not get hot. High seeds winning in other leagues would be good for North Dakota's chances if it can't give itself enough help.

Per CHN, there are nine teams still alive for the NCAAs that can only get in via their respective league's automatic bid. Those are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State (B1G), Canisius, Army, and Robert Morris (Atlantic Hockey), both combatants in the WCHA title game (Michigan Tech and Bowling Green), and Quinnipiac (ECAC). Everyone else playing this weekend is either a lock for the tournament or is like North Dakota -- not 100 percent in but capable of getting in either via an automatic or at-large bid.

I'll update scenarios on the blog Saturday for sure, maybe Friday if the Big Ten first round Thursday changes anything significantly (Penn State losing to Michigan, for example, could make things very interesting). Will also be back with a NCHC semifinal preview, probably Thursday night, and obviously plenty of content from Target Center.

Pairwise Changes Come a Year Late

HOUGHTON, Mich. -- Last March, UMD players and fans were left in limbo, waiting to learn their team's ultimate fate after their run at the WCHA Final Five ended with a 2-0 loss to North Dakota.

The news wouldn't be good, as the Bulldogs were bumped from the field by a series of unfortunate events in other conference tournaments.

Turns out that they were victims of a flawed system that wasn't addressed until this year.

We knew the system was flawed. Nothing is perfect, after all, and the Pairwise has holes in it big enough to drive a bus through. One of those holes was the idea that the only teams that should be rated are the top 25 of the RPI, or Ratings Percentage Index. That arbitrary line was the subject of much debate, and it led to a term called the "TUC Cliff," meant to describe the last couple spots in the Pairwise, which changed constantly as teams at the bottom won and lost.

The number (25) was odd, because the idea of the "Teams Under Consideration" being that big for a 16-team field that included six (now five) automatic bids was a bit crazy. While that term doesn't really fit many of the teams, the change the NCAA Championship Committee made this week makes perfect sense, and it moves us away from that arbitrary number.

Beginning in 2011, the Pairwise will include any team with an RPI of .500 or better. While you could argue that this is also arbitrary and non-sensical (why the hell should Michigan State's ability to maintain a .500 RPI have any impact on who makes the NCAAs?), it's not nearly as bad as what we had before.

Why not? Because you're no longer deciding that 25 teams -- and only 25 teams, dammit -- are good enough to be in the ratings. Instead, a perfectly reasonable line has been drawn (.500 RPI) that a decent, mediocre, good, or great team can meet, but a truly bad team can't.

Teams like Quinnipiac, St. Cloud State, and Michigan State haven't had enough success to make the NCAAs without winning their league tournaments, but they have picked off some good teams this season. It makes sense that the ability of the teams above them to win games against these types of opponents would matter when it comes selection time. It should matter.

Not only that, but the Pairwise won't be as volatile with this new provision. Yes, you'll see fluctuation in the rankings. It might go from 34 teams to 38 to 33 to 30 in a short time. But once we get closer to the big day, that number won't move as much, and the teams that are on the bubble won't have to lament a series sweep over a team that finished up at No. 26, or a loss to a team that finished No. 24 in the Pairwise.

Simply put, the TUC cliff that everyone hated is gone.

Now, about that silly "TUC" moniker.

Yes, it's stupid for anyone to think that a team rated No. 33 in the Pairwise is "under consideration" for the NCAA Tournament. It's dumb. Makes no sense.

But it's just a term. It's not like the selection committee is going to sit and debate the merits of St. Cloud State's candidacy, wasting everyone's time when we all know they're not getting in.

Arguing over the term is just a waste of time.

Instead, let's look at the merits of what the committee has done here. They fixed an issue with their system.

Granted, it was a year late.

Last year, with this system in place, UMD unquestionably would have made the NCAAs. In fact, they would have been a No. 3 regional seed, with no need for hand-wringing as we headed into the selections. It's an unfortunate reality, but perhaps UMD's plight helped urge the committee to make this switch for 2011.

Of course, the Bulldogs are out to make the PWR a non-factor in 2011. Stay tuned on that.

Potential Significance of UMD-Clarkson is High

CANTON, N.Y. -- Last year, UMD didn't miss the NCAA Tournament by much. While my math isn't good enough to run numbers and confirm anything, it's reasonable to suggest that if any one of five losses by UMD over the second half of the season in winnable games (at Vermont, at Bemidji State, vs. Bemidji State, at Michigan Tech, and at Alaska-Anchorage) had been wins instead of losses, the Bulldogs would have gone dancing.

Being close isn't good enough, and the best way to avoid letting a computer decide your fate is to just win games.

Of course, life isn't always that easy.

Right now, UMD is 13-4-3, pending Tuesday's game with Clarkson. According to the version of the Pairwise currently available at CHN, UMD sits at No. 6 in the Pairwise after Monday's 4-1 win in Potsdam. That puts them safely in the NCAA field, but we've got a lot of hockey left to play.

Because there's so much season left, Tuesday's game for UMD is a highly significant one. Here's why.

In the Pairwise, each team eligible (the top 25 of the RPI -- also known as Teams Under Consideration) is compared to one another in four different categories. Those are RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), Head to Head (when applicable), Record vs. Teams Under Consideration (TUC), and Record vs. Common Opponents (when applicable).

Because there simply aren't many WCHA vs. ECAC regular-season games, each one that is played gets over-valued in a sense. It's the nature of this system, and everyone is playing under the same rules. UMD's games against Clarkson are the only time this season they will see an opponent from the ECAC. Clarkson, meanwhile, will play every other team in the ECAC, including Yale, RPI, Union, Princeton, and Dartmouth, all of whom are currently in the Pairwise.

If UMD can beat Clarkson, they will help themselves immensely. Clarkson is unlikely to go the rest of the season without a win. They're a good team with a good record, and there are plenty of chances for them to beat a top team the rest of the way. Clarkson plays Yale, RPI, and Union twice each before the regular season ends. Every time one of those teams fails to beat Clarkson, it's a win in the Pairwise for UMD. The Golden Knights will not be the only common opponent for UMD and Yale, Union, or RPI, but they will be one of few.

Yale played (and won) at Colorado College. UMD hasn't played CC yet, but will visit in late February. RPI also visited CC, getting a loss and tie for their efforts. The Engineers don't share any other opponents. Union played Minnesota (win) and Bemidji State (loss) at the Gophers' tournament this past weekend, and the Dutchmen also beat Alaska-Anchorage in Fairbanks.

That makes Union 2-1 against those common opponents so far. UMD is 3-1-2 (two wins vs. UAA, a win and tie vs. Bemidji, and a loss and tie vs. UMTC). The Bulldogs still have two games left with Minnesota, and the games with Clarkson will count in that comparison once Union plays Clarkson this weekend.

Not only would a sweep of Clarkson help the Bulldogs in these individual comparisons, but it's a huge get if Clarkson plays well enough down the stretch to stay among the TUC teams. Record vs. TUC only counts if you have ten games against TUCs within a comparison (head-to-head games don't count; for example, when you compare UMD and North Dakota, their games against each other are eliminated from the TUC record, and because of that, the comparison isn't counted yet because UMD doesn't have ten games against other TUCs).

It's a bit early to pay much attention to the ebb and flow of the rankings, but it's not too early to understand what games are potentially significant to rankings and (maybe) seedings down the road.

I will now depart from the nerdery. Talk to you later from Potsdam.