I used to be a junkie.
Well, for the NFL Draft. Couldn't get enough of names scrolling across a TV screen for two straight days. Trade drama, curveballs, Mel Kiper. It was all great theater.
Things aren't the same. Three months of draft hype on ESPN and sports radio and the internet have robbed the event of much of its intrigue. I get it, because the NFL sells and the NFL wins, but it becomes a bit much, and I think it takes away from the bit.
I used to take it all in. Wrote a lot of words about college prospects and spent plenty of cash on the draft guides and online stuff.
I've stopped. The hype is just too much, and I don't know that I can count the number of times that guys listed in draft guides as third round picks ended up going in the top 20, or vice versa. There was a year where a guy listed as a potential first-round pick in the draft guide I bought ended up going undrafted, and I'm pretty sure he never made a roster out of training camp.
Not only that, but as I got more and more into hockey, the draft prep became much less of a priority.
This year is no different. The NHL playoffs start next week, and the draft begins Thursday night.
(That's another thing. I think the new format of the draft has hurt my interest. Part of it is the fact that evenings are family time, and my wife and kid have less than zero interest in watching the first round of the draft. Oh, and I'm a morning guy, so I don't feel like staying up late to watch it all unfold. It isn't that intriguing.)
The draft this year could be interesting. There isn't really a consensus No. 1 pick, like there was last year with Andrew Luck, and like there's been in the past with players like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Reggie Bush. Oh, wait.
There also isn't really the potential for a story like Aaron Rodgers to unfold, where a guy sits in the green room for entirely too long before getting picked. Even if Rodgers didn't turn himself into one of the best players in the NFL, the 2005 draft would have been a hell of a story.
Because the Packers and Vikings chose to not suck last year, both pick in the latter stages of the first round, barring unlikely trades.
(I don't see either team moving up, though if there is a market for those late first-round picks Thursday, one or both could move down or out of the first round. Ted Thompson in Green Bay and Rick Spielman of the Vikings seem similar, in that they would rather have more picks than fewer. Thompson even talked about that last week, likening it to a baseball player getting more swings for a better chance at hits.)
Looking through a draft guide and some awesome notes from the great Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (I linked to the linebackers rankings, but you can check everything out from that page if you look in the left-hand column -- remember there is a pay wall once you hit 20 articles for a month), I've gotten a bit of a clue who the highly-coveted players are. It strikes as a depth draft and not a star draft, as last year was with Luck and RGIII going with the first two picks.
The Vikings have two first-round picks. Many are looking at Minnesota as a likely destination for Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o. The Vikings have a hole at middle linebacker -- they've actually had a hole there for a few years now -- and could use a starter-type player there. Te'o is a good fit for 4-3 defenses, so there could be something to the steam.
Despite the Greg Jennings signing, the Vikings should also be looking for a top-tier wide receiver in the first round.
While Tavon Austin -- who would make a great replacement for Percy Harvin -- is likely to be off the board, guys like Keenan Allen (Cal), Cordarrelle Patterson (Tennessee), and Robert Woods (USC) could be intriguing choices. From the college football I watch, I really like Patterson, who is featured in these highlights.
A scout in McGinn's notes says Patterson is "not very smart," but they seem to like his athleticism. He projects as a better downfield threat than Jennings, and it would be a great addition for the Vikings when you throw in Jarius Wright as the slot guy.
The Packers pick late in the first round, and while a trade is always a possibility, let's pretend they are using the pick. Honestly, with Jennings gone, it's arguable the Packers could take Patterson if he falls to them, but it's more likely they go defense or offensive line with that first selection. Cheesehead TV does a good job outlining some potential candidates. I want to zero in on one, and that's Florida International safety Jonathan Cyprien.
Dude can play the run and pass, and has plenty of size and speed for his position. I really hate to use hockey terminology, but the Packers simply have to be a harder team to play against. A guy like Cyprien would help immensely. Florida's Matt Elam would be a nice consolation prize.
I wouldn't mind seeing the Packers upgrade on the defensive line, but I think safety is a huge spot for them right now and really want to see Thompson get a top-notch starting safety out of this draft if he can.
Showing posts with label nfl draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nfl draft. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Friday, April 27, 2012
2012 NFL Draft: Packers Bolster Defense
In the interest of fairness, equal time, and actually taking a few moments to write about the team that has made the playoffs over the last couple years, I figured I'd offer up a few draft thoughts on my favorite football team, the Packers.
As I mentioned earlier this week, the Packers were in a rather odd position. Even though Green Bay was 15-1 last season and didn't lose much in free agency, the general consensus going into the draft is that the Packers have some work to do, especially on defense.
General manager Ted Thompson apparently agrees with this assessment. In his time as GM, he has now made five trades to improve his team's draft position ("trade ups," in other words). Two of those trades happened Friday night.
Dissatisfied with his position at 27th in the second round, Thompson moved up four spots in a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. He dealt the Packers' second-round pick and a fourth-rounder for the right to move up and take Michigan State defensive lineman Jerel Worthy. The big man should work as a defensive end in the Packers' 3-4 scheme, while first-round pick Nick Perry is slotted in opposite Clay Matthews at right outside linebacker. The goal with Worthy is to get a replacement of sorts for Cullen Jenkins, who was a key cog in the Packers' line during their Super Bowl XLV run. Jenkins left for Philadelphia after the lockout last summer, and he was not even remotely replaced. His loss rendered many guys, most notably Matthews and nose man BJ Raji, as much less effective than they were the previous season. Matthews' dropoff in production was also caused by a lack of a pass rush threat anywhere else in the front seven.
Thompson wasn't done. Seeing a lack of depth at cornerback, he dealt back into the second round, getting the 62nd pick from New England in exchange for the Packers' third-round selection and another Saturday pick. Thompson added to his secondary with Vanderbilt cornerback Casey Hayward. He doesn't have to make an immediate impact, but instead can work behind Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson. If he develops quickly, he provides the Packers with the security needed to potentially move Woodson to safety if that's a choice the organization wants to make.
(I'm not saying I'm in favor of it or not. As long as Woodson can play at a high level, I don't care what position he plays. I'll let the coaches make that call.)
Green Bay isn't done. This week's release of former All-Pro safety Nick Collins -- who suffered a serious neck injury in Week 2 last year and was apparently not going to be cleared to play by the Packers' medical staff -- creates a gaping hole in the middle of the secondary. Green Bay suffered greatly without Collins last year, as Charlie Peprah was torched on a seemingly regular basis. This isn't a good draft for safeties, so it's possible Thompson has something else in mind there.
Hopefully, the team doesn't plan to go into the season with the status quo. It was a scary good last season, and not in a good way. The other hope is that building more strength elsewhere on defense will help alleviate the issues at safety.
As we all know, a good pass rush can cover for a lot of deficiencies in the back. Similarly, having a strong secondary can help counter a poor pass rush. Of course, no matter what, you can only expect to cover receivers for so long before someone gets open.
The Packers still have some picks on Saturday, giving them a chance to add to a pretty solid special teams group (not the kicker and punter, instead I'm talking about adding depth for the return and coverage teams). Between that and the crop of undrafted free agents, it seems unlikely Thompson -- no matter how good he is at this job, and we know he's good -- is going to find a Week 1 starter. Can't be ruled out, but it would be foolish to count on it.
Last year's playoff disaster is still fresh in the minds of the Cheeseheads, but the way Thompson has started this draft should help calm their nerves a little bit.
As I mentioned earlier this week, the Packers were in a rather odd position. Even though Green Bay was 15-1 last season and didn't lose much in free agency, the general consensus going into the draft is that the Packers have some work to do, especially on defense.
General manager Ted Thompson apparently agrees with this assessment. In his time as GM, he has now made five trades to improve his team's draft position ("trade ups," in other words). Two of those trades happened Friday night.
Dissatisfied with his position at 27th in the second round, Thompson moved up four spots in a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. He dealt the Packers' second-round pick and a fourth-rounder for the right to move up and take Michigan State defensive lineman Jerel Worthy. The big man should work as a defensive end in the Packers' 3-4 scheme, while first-round pick Nick Perry is slotted in opposite Clay Matthews at right outside linebacker. The goal with Worthy is to get a replacement of sorts for Cullen Jenkins, who was a key cog in the Packers' line during their Super Bowl XLV run. Jenkins left for Philadelphia after the lockout last summer, and he was not even remotely replaced. His loss rendered many guys, most notably Matthews and nose man BJ Raji, as much less effective than they were the previous season. Matthews' dropoff in production was also caused by a lack of a pass rush threat anywhere else in the front seven.
Thompson wasn't done. Seeing a lack of depth at cornerback, he dealt back into the second round, getting the 62nd pick from New England in exchange for the Packers' third-round selection and another Saturday pick. Thompson added to his secondary with Vanderbilt cornerback Casey Hayward. He doesn't have to make an immediate impact, but instead can work behind Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson. If he develops quickly, he provides the Packers with the security needed to potentially move Woodson to safety if that's a choice the organization wants to make.
(I'm not saying I'm in favor of it or not. As long as Woodson can play at a high level, I don't care what position he plays. I'll let the coaches make that call.)
Green Bay isn't done. This week's release of former All-Pro safety Nick Collins -- who suffered a serious neck injury in Week 2 last year and was apparently not going to be cleared to play by the Packers' medical staff -- creates a gaping hole in the middle of the secondary. Green Bay suffered greatly without Collins last year, as Charlie Peprah was torched on a seemingly regular basis. This isn't a good draft for safeties, so it's possible Thompson has something else in mind there.
Hopefully, the team doesn't plan to go into the season with the status quo. It was a scary good last season, and not in a good way. The other hope is that building more strength elsewhere on defense will help alleviate the issues at safety.
As we all know, a good pass rush can cover for a lot of deficiencies in the back. Similarly, having a strong secondary can help counter a poor pass rush. Of course, no matter what, you can only expect to cover receivers for so long before someone gets open.
The Packers still have some picks on Saturday, giving them a chance to add to a pretty solid special teams group (not the kicker and punter, instead I'm talking about adding depth for the return and coverage teams). Between that and the crop of undrafted free agents, it seems unlikely Thompson -- no matter how good he is at this job, and we know he's good -- is going to find a Week 1 starter. Can't be ruled out, but it would be foolish to count on it.
Last year's playoff disaster is still fresh in the minds of the Cheeseheads, but the way Thompson has started this draft should help calm their nerves a little bit.
2012 NFL Draft: Vikings Score With Smarts
The Minnesota Vikings were 3-13 in 2011. There are noticeable holes at wide receiver, offensive tackle, defensive tackle, cornerback, and safety. It could be argued that the Vikings needed to get three and perhaps four immediate starters out of this draft to fill the holes that clearly exist.
That they got two out of the first round of the draft is a great accomplishment, one that isn't easy to pull off.
Minnesota traded out of the third spot in Thursday's first round, dealing with Cleveland to swap picks in the top five. The Browns then took Alabama running back Trent Richardson, while the Vikings slid back to the fourth spot, knowing full well that they would still be able to get their guy.
Despite a pretty elaborate smokescreen, many knew that their guy all along was USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil, and he was indeed the fourth pick.
Kalil might not be the prospect at left tackle that Jake Long and Joe Thomas were when they came out, but he is far and away the best left tackle in this draft, and he's a guy who should start immediately as Christian Ponder's blind-side protector. It's a solid, safe pick.
New general manager Rick Spielman wasn't done, though. He maneuvered himself into the 29th position, via a deal with the Baltimore Ravens. Once the Packers didn't select the player Spielman wanted, it was an easy call to make the trade. The player he wanted was Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith, another player who should be an immediate starter.
Smith doesn't have the best hands (he dropped a couple picks as a senior last year). He also had seven picks as a junior, and he's got the athleticism necessary to be a factor covering backs and tight ends. Good size, strong, and a great tackler. He has good instincts for the safety position.
Anytime you can pull two immediate starters out of the first round, it's cause for celebration. Making matters even better was that Spielman actually profited in draft pick currency from the wheeling and dealing.
The Browns gave up three picks -- albeit none of them before the fourth round -- to swap positions for the right to select Richardson, a player they clearly coveted. Minnesota only surrendered two -- a second and a fourth -- to move into Baltimore's first-round pick for Smith.
That leaves Spielman with ten picks. Even though he no longer has one in Friday's second round, it's a win for a team that hasn't had many lately.
You might think Spielman needs four starters out of this draft. Even if that's the case, he has plenty of ammunition to make that happen. Don't be surprised to see Minnesota try to move into the second round if a player Spielman likes falls far enough.
It was a good start for the new GM, and a good start to what fans hope is the kind of turnaround that has become quite common in the NFL these days.
That they got two out of the first round of the draft is a great accomplishment, one that isn't easy to pull off.
Minnesota traded out of the third spot in Thursday's first round, dealing with Cleveland to swap picks in the top five. The Browns then took Alabama running back Trent Richardson, while the Vikings slid back to the fourth spot, knowing full well that they would still be able to get their guy.
Despite a pretty elaborate smokescreen, many knew that their guy all along was USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil, and he was indeed the fourth pick.
Kalil might not be the prospect at left tackle that Jake Long and Joe Thomas were when they came out, but he is far and away the best left tackle in this draft, and he's a guy who should start immediately as Christian Ponder's blind-side protector. It's a solid, safe pick.
New general manager Rick Spielman wasn't done, though. He maneuvered himself into the 29th position, via a deal with the Baltimore Ravens. Once the Packers didn't select the player Spielman wanted, it was an easy call to make the trade. The player he wanted was Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith, another player who should be an immediate starter.
Smith doesn't have the best hands (he dropped a couple picks as a senior last year). He also had seven picks as a junior, and he's got the athleticism necessary to be a factor covering backs and tight ends. Good size, strong, and a great tackler. He has good instincts for the safety position.
Anytime you can pull two immediate starters out of the first round, it's cause for celebration. Making matters even better was that Spielman actually profited in draft pick currency from the wheeling and dealing.
The Browns gave up three picks -- albeit none of them before the fourth round -- to swap positions for the right to select Richardson, a player they clearly coveted. Minnesota only surrendered two -- a second and a fourth -- to move into Baltimore's first-round pick for Smith.
That leaves Spielman with ten picks. Even though he no longer has one in Friday's second round, it's a win for a team that hasn't had many lately.
You might think Spielman needs four starters out of this draft. Even if that's the case, he has plenty of ammunition to make that happen. Don't be surprised to see Minnesota try to move into the second round if a player Spielman likes falls far enough.
It was a good start for the new GM, and a good start to what fans hope is the kind of turnaround that has become quite common in the NFL these days.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Random Rabble: April 25
Here's a shocker: The Vikings stadium bill -- which looked dead in the water before Friday -- now appears to have an "air of inevitability," just days after NFL commissioner Roger Goodell showed up in Minnesota for half a day and scared the hell out of the politicos. Listen, you know where I stand on this. Couldn't be more clear. And I agree with Sen. Richard Cohen, a DFLer out of St. Paul, who said Tuesday that this charade makes lawmakers look like "a total gang of idiots."
I'd disagree in a sense, though, because the lawmakers looked like buffoons long before Goodell and Steelers owner Art Rooney arrived at the airport Friday.
If the league commissioner has to take half a day to fly to Minnesota and teach lawmakers about the economic impact of an NFL franchise on a region, and make it abundantly clear that even if the league were to ever bring a different team to Minnesota, it would 1) be a long time, and 2) be a hell of a lot more expensive, then the problem here lies with the lawmakers.
Just remember that come November, whether this thing ends up getting done this week or not. Your favorite football team has been left to twist in the wind since the money for TCF Bank Stadium and Target Field was allocated in 2006. You know, six years ago. The blame doesn't fall on your favorite football team. It falls on the people you can help elect or not elect.
Do your research on your local lawmakers' stances on this issue, and make your voice heard. It's the only recourse you have.
The NFL Draft is Thursday. I don't do mock drafts anymore, largely because it's fruitless, and largely because hockey duties take away from my note-taking time. The scouts love them some Luck and RGIII, which is fine, but I'm a bit concerned that the depth behind these two is lackluster at best. Of course, in most years that I have this reaction, things turn out just fine.
I think Minnesota will draft Matt Kalil, despite the increased steam surrounding the likes of LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. I'm not saying Claiborne is a bad pick, nor am I going back on what I said before regarding wide receiver Justin Blackmon, a guy I was trumpeting for the Vikings once it became clear they would be picking early in the draft (you know, around Week 2).
Despite a pretty blatant smokescreen thrown up by GM Rick Spielman, I don't think the Vikings are a serious candidate to trade this pick. No one else wants/needs Kalil enough to move up, and if the Vikes decide to draft Claiborne, there are other cornerbacks -- hi, Stephon Gilmore of South Carolina! -- on the board who justify first-round selections.
I'm a fan of Gilmore. He probably looks better on tape than Claiborne, though it's close. I think he'd be a good pick for someone in the middle of the round, and it certainly lowers the value of Claiborne a bit. Kalil, however, is easily the best tackle in the draft, something that should give the Vikings even more reason to pull the trigger on that pick.
I'd disagree in a sense, though, because the lawmakers looked like buffoons long before Goodell and Steelers owner Art Rooney arrived at the airport Friday.
If the league commissioner has to take half a day to fly to Minnesota and teach lawmakers about the economic impact of an NFL franchise on a region, and make it abundantly clear that even if the league were to ever bring a different team to Minnesota, it would 1) be a long time, and 2) be a hell of a lot more expensive, then the problem here lies with the lawmakers.
Just remember that come November, whether this thing ends up getting done this week or not. Your favorite football team has been left to twist in the wind since the money for TCF Bank Stadium and Target Field was allocated in 2006. You know, six years ago. The blame doesn't fall on your favorite football team. It falls on the people you can help elect or not elect.
Do your research on your local lawmakers' stances on this issue, and make your voice heard. It's the only recourse you have.
The NFL Draft is Thursday. I don't do mock drafts anymore, largely because it's fruitless, and largely because hockey duties take away from my note-taking time. The scouts love them some Luck and RGIII, which is fine, but I'm a bit concerned that the depth behind these two is lackluster at best. Of course, in most years that I have this reaction, things turn out just fine.
I think Minnesota will draft Matt Kalil, despite the increased steam surrounding the likes of LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. I'm not saying Claiborne is a bad pick, nor am I going back on what I said before regarding wide receiver Justin Blackmon, a guy I was trumpeting for the Vikings once it became clear they would be picking early in the draft (you know, around Week 2).
Despite a pretty blatant smokescreen thrown up by GM Rick Spielman, I don't think the Vikings are a serious candidate to trade this pick. No one else wants/needs Kalil enough to move up, and if the Vikes decide to draft Claiborne, there are other cornerbacks -- hi, Stephon Gilmore of South Carolina! -- on the board who justify first-round selections.
I'm a fan of Gilmore. He probably looks better on tape than Claiborne, though it's close. I think he'd be a good pick for someone in the middle of the round, and it certainly lowers the value of Claiborne a bit. Kalil, however, is easily the best tackle in the draft, something that should give the Vikings even more reason to pull the trigger on that pick.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
2012 NFL Draft: Packers Need To Do Well, Despite Recent Success
The Green Bay Packers have posted three straight winning seasons since a 6-10 performance the year after Brett Favre's first retirement.
Once Aaron Rodgers got his feet wet and was entrenched as the starter, there was no need or reason for worry about the offense.
In 2010, Dom Capers got his defense to peak at the best time possible, as it played incredibly well late in the season to help the Packers get into the NFC playoffs as the No. 6 seed. In the playoffs, the defense had plenty of high moments, including some big turnovers in all four games as the Packers went on to win the Super Bowl.
Last year, as the Packers started 13-0 and finished 15-1 in defense of their title, the defense struggled. They couldn't sack the quarterback, they got gashed in the passing game, and they allowed too many big plays, due in large part to missed tackles.
With general manager Ted Thompson entrenched in a philosophy that eschews free agency in favor of drafting and developing guys into top players, the Packers aren't going to try to find a quick fix on defense. They're sticking with the 3-4, and Capers will do what he can with the talent Thompson procures for him.
That makes this a pretty important draft. Green Bay is scheduled to pick 12 times, and the Packers have plenty of needs, most notably on defense. Thompson needs to find some depth for a defensive front that had none last year, and he needs to find an explosive guy to put opposite Clay Matthews at outside linebacker, a position where Green Bay was so weak last year it adversely affected Matthews' game.
Thompson isn't known for predictability in the draft, but there are a couple names I've honed in on as potential picks for the Packers late in the first round.
One of those is Boise State outside linebacker Shea McClellin. I'm a bit concerned that McClellin will be off the board when Green Bay picks, but if he's still around, he's a good bet to become a Packer. He's a top player who fits a pretty huge need for the Packers.
I could also see Thompson taking a shot at a defensive lineman.
I don't think that guy will be Memphis tackle Dontari Poe. The 350-pounder had everyone's attention at the scouting combine, but didn't do much on the field in college. I'm not saying guys don't wow at the combine and turn into good pros, but I don't see Thompson wasting a first round pick on a guy when YouTube searches for him yield more weightlifting and combine clips than football highlights.
More realistically, if Thompson is going to take a lineman who might not be high on the pre-draft boards you can access on the interwebs, I think a safer bet is Penn State's Devon Still.
Still can play, and he might start right away as an end in the Packers' 3-4 lineup. I like the fact that he has some explosiveness, but he also takes on blockers well. In a 3-4, the linemen need to hold their own and take up blockers. It frees up the likes of Matthews to make plays in the backfield instead of fighting off blocks while the quarterback finds an open guy 15 yards downfield.
Of course, with all this said, watch Thompson draft a running back.
Once Aaron Rodgers got his feet wet and was entrenched as the starter, there was no need or reason for worry about the offense.
In 2010, Dom Capers got his defense to peak at the best time possible, as it played incredibly well late in the season to help the Packers get into the NFC playoffs as the No. 6 seed. In the playoffs, the defense had plenty of high moments, including some big turnovers in all four games as the Packers went on to win the Super Bowl.
Last year, as the Packers started 13-0 and finished 15-1 in defense of their title, the defense struggled. They couldn't sack the quarterback, they got gashed in the passing game, and they allowed too many big plays, due in large part to missed tackles.
With general manager Ted Thompson entrenched in a philosophy that eschews free agency in favor of drafting and developing guys into top players, the Packers aren't going to try to find a quick fix on defense. They're sticking with the 3-4, and Capers will do what he can with the talent Thompson procures for him.
That makes this a pretty important draft. Green Bay is scheduled to pick 12 times, and the Packers have plenty of needs, most notably on defense. Thompson needs to find some depth for a defensive front that had none last year, and he needs to find an explosive guy to put opposite Clay Matthews at outside linebacker, a position where Green Bay was so weak last year it adversely affected Matthews' game.
Thompson isn't known for predictability in the draft, but there are a couple names I've honed in on as potential picks for the Packers late in the first round.
One of those is Boise State outside linebacker Shea McClellin. I'm a bit concerned that McClellin will be off the board when Green Bay picks, but if he's still around, he's a good bet to become a Packer. He's a top player who fits a pretty huge need for the Packers.
I could also see Thompson taking a shot at a defensive lineman.
I don't think that guy will be Memphis tackle Dontari Poe. The 350-pounder had everyone's attention at the scouting combine, but didn't do much on the field in college. I'm not saying guys don't wow at the combine and turn into good pros, but I don't see Thompson wasting a first round pick on a guy when YouTube searches for him yield more weightlifting and combine clips than football highlights.
More realistically, if Thompson is going to take a lineman who might not be high on the pre-draft boards you can access on the interwebs, I think a safer bet is Penn State's Devon Still.
Still can play, and he might start right away as an end in the Packers' 3-4 lineup. I like the fact that he has some explosiveness, but he also takes on blockers well. In a 3-4, the linemen need to hold their own and take up blockers. It frees up the likes of Matthews to make plays in the backfield instead of fighting off blocks while the quarterback finds an open guy 15 yards downfield.
Of course, with all this said, watch Thompson draft a running back.
Monday, April 23, 2012
2012 NFL Draft: Fresh Off 'Reality Check,' Vikings Get to Focus on Football
I can't pretend to know what it's been like for Minnesota Vikings fans as of late.
The promising 2009 season went up in smoke when Brett Favre threw across his body to Tracy Porter. The promising 2010 season never really got going the way everyone expected, as the Vikings went 6-10 and appeared to bottom out, as Favre never seemed interested and the defense crumbled under the pressure of increased turnovers and decreased offensive efficiency.
Then there was that 3-13 thing. Another awful season to follow the first one.
Oh, and now there's all this talk about the need for a new stadium, with no corresponding action and now a very real threat that 2012 will be the end of an era in Minnesota.
(The latest, by the way, came Friday when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell showed up in Minnesota and delivered what Minnesota Sen. Julie Rosen called a "reality check." It's sad that the league's commissioner had to make a trip to Minnesota to tell these morons what the rest of us have known for six years -- that the Metrodome sucks, isn't a long-term solution, and the team will probably leave if one isn't found soon -- but we're all glad he did.)
Now, however, it's time for fans to finally focus on football once again, even if it's only for a couple days.
Supporting a team that consistently makes the playoffs and went 15-1 last season makes it hard to understand these types of struggles, but there is a small similarity.
The Packers went 4-12 under Mike Sherman in 2005. Regular readers will know how I felt about Mr. Sherman as a football coach and (worse) a general manager. Ted Thompson was appointed GM before the 2005 season, with Sherman serving as only the head coach that season. Once it was over, Sherman was out, and the Mike McCarthy era began.
Thompson insisted (and still does, for the most part) on building his team without high-priced free agents, choosing instead to get his core built up in the draft, and supplementing it with the occasional free agent signing (guys like Ryan Pickett would apply here).
Similarly, new Vikings general manager Rick Spielman has eschewed free agency. The plan is that the Vikings will draft several potential core players this week, and this roster will be built the right way.
There might be some differences in the overall scheme, but it seems Spielman wants to follow Thompson's plan. It's not the cheap route, because the Packers will spend close to the cap in most years, as they deal out long-term contracts to core players they drafted. The difference is the Packers won't spend much on free agents, while other organizations continue to try to make big splashes in the first couple days of free agency. Similarly, the Vikings have made sure Adrian Peterson and Chad Greenway got paid, and Percy Harvin may be next in line.
You'll notice that teams like Pittsburgh, New England, and (to a somewhat lesser extent) the Giants don't make those splashes. You'll also probably notice that those teams are contenders most of the time.
It's a philosophy that can be very successful.
It starts Thursday for the Vikings, as they pick third.
(Yes, they could trade out of this pick, but I'd say I'm about 95 percent sure they'll make a pick at No. 3. I don't see another team making an offer to move up that will blow Spielman away enough to tempt him.)
There are three guys I could see the Vikings picking. Not surprisingly, they're the three guys Spielman tabbed last week when he was making the media rounds. Of the three, I think there is a clear favorite, but if Spielman is to be believed, they're not drafting based on a need, and instead based on who they rate the highest.
If that's the case, USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil is the favorite, but not necessarily a lock.
Solid tackle, a guy that the draftniks will probably try to tear down in the coming days, but I really like his game, and I think Kalil is an immediate starter in the NFL. He's also a good starter, not just a stopgap. This could be the Vikings' answer at left tackle for a decade or more.
There are other options for the Vikings. Cornerback is a need, and LSU's Morris Claiborne is a very good prospect who should be a top five pick Thursday night. Could he go third?
I love Claiborne's ball skills. He's also plenty fast enough for the position, and he has enough muscle that he shouldn't get pushed around by guys like Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall in the NFC North.
The final candidate is a guy whose tires I was pumping during the regular season. Wide receiver Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State fills a real need for the Vikings if they pick him third. He might not have the big-time buzz of a guy like AJ Green last year, but he's a receiver whose skills translate nicely to the next level.
Blackmon's got great hands, can catch the ball in traffic, and is a freaskish athlete. He's also an anti-diva type of player, whose story extends beyond the football field. Watch this heartwarming ESPN piece from last season.
I'm not going to advocate drafting Blackmon because he seems like a grounded, kind-hearted young man. But when you combine his athletic ability with what appears to be more of a Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson-type attitude, you have a pretty special prospect who won't cause you trouble in the room or off the field.
These are the top three candidates for the Vikings at No. 3. I lean Kalil based on the pre-draft news, but my heart stays with Blackmon, a player I've been trumpeting for the Vikings since September.
The promising 2009 season went up in smoke when Brett Favre threw across his body to Tracy Porter. The promising 2010 season never really got going the way everyone expected, as the Vikings went 6-10 and appeared to bottom out, as Favre never seemed interested and the defense crumbled under the pressure of increased turnovers and decreased offensive efficiency.
Then there was that 3-13 thing. Another awful season to follow the first one.
Oh, and now there's all this talk about the need for a new stadium, with no corresponding action and now a very real threat that 2012 will be the end of an era in Minnesota.
(The latest, by the way, came Friday when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell showed up in Minnesota and delivered what Minnesota Sen. Julie Rosen called a "reality check." It's sad that the league's commissioner had to make a trip to Minnesota to tell these morons what the rest of us have known for six years -- that the Metrodome sucks, isn't a long-term solution, and the team will probably leave if one isn't found soon -- but we're all glad he did.)
Now, however, it's time for fans to finally focus on football once again, even if it's only for a couple days.
Supporting a team that consistently makes the playoffs and went 15-1 last season makes it hard to understand these types of struggles, but there is a small similarity.
The Packers went 4-12 under Mike Sherman in 2005. Regular readers will know how I felt about Mr. Sherman as a football coach and (worse) a general manager. Ted Thompson was appointed GM before the 2005 season, with Sherman serving as only the head coach that season. Once it was over, Sherman was out, and the Mike McCarthy era began.
Thompson insisted (and still does, for the most part) on building his team without high-priced free agents, choosing instead to get his core built up in the draft, and supplementing it with the occasional free agent signing (guys like Ryan Pickett would apply here).
Similarly, new Vikings general manager Rick Spielman has eschewed free agency. The plan is that the Vikings will draft several potential core players this week, and this roster will be built the right way.
There might be some differences in the overall scheme, but it seems Spielman wants to follow Thompson's plan. It's not the cheap route, because the Packers will spend close to the cap in most years, as they deal out long-term contracts to core players they drafted. The difference is the Packers won't spend much on free agents, while other organizations continue to try to make big splashes in the first couple days of free agency. Similarly, the Vikings have made sure Adrian Peterson and Chad Greenway got paid, and Percy Harvin may be next in line.
You'll notice that teams like Pittsburgh, New England, and (to a somewhat lesser extent) the Giants don't make those splashes. You'll also probably notice that those teams are contenders most of the time.
It's a philosophy that can be very successful.
It starts Thursday for the Vikings, as they pick third.
(Yes, they could trade out of this pick, but I'd say I'm about 95 percent sure they'll make a pick at No. 3. I don't see another team making an offer to move up that will blow Spielman away enough to tempt him.)
There are three guys I could see the Vikings picking. Not surprisingly, they're the three guys Spielman tabbed last week when he was making the media rounds. Of the three, I think there is a clear favorite, but if Spielman is to be believed, they're not drafting based on a need, and instead based on who they rate the highest.
If that's the case, USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil is the favorite, but not necessarily a lock.
Solid tackle, a guy that the draftniks will probably try to tear down in the coming days, but I really like his game, and I think Kalil is an immediate starter in the NFL. He's also a good starter, not just a stopgap. This could be the Vikings' answer at left tackle for a decade or more.
There are other options for the Vikings. Cornerback is a need, and LSU's Morris Claiborne is a very good prospect who should be a top five pick Thursday night. Could he go third?
I love Claiborne's ball skills. He's also plenty fast enough for the position, and he has enough muscle that he shouldn't get pushed around by guys like Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall in the NFC North.
The final candidate is a guy whose tires I was pumping during the regular season. Wide receiver Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State fills a real need for the Vikings if they pick him third. He might not have the big-time buzz of a guy like AJ Green last year, but he's a receiver whose skills translate nicely to the next level.
Blackmon's got great hands, can catch the ball in traffic, and is a freaskish athlete. He's also an anti-diva type of player, whose story extends beyond the football field. Watch this heartwarming ESPN piece from last season.
I'm not going to advocate drafting Blackmon because he seems like a grounded, kind-hearted young man. But when you combine his athletic ability with what appears to be more of a Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson-type attitude, you have a pretty special prospect who won't cause you trouble in the room or off the field.
These are the top three candidates for the Vikings at No. 3. I lean Kalil based on the pre-draft news, but my heart stays with Blackmon, a player I've been trumpeting for the Vikings since September.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Christian Ponder: Pros and Cons
You can't trust the ability to trade back, because you need a partner to do that.
(Actually, Vikings vice president Rick Spielman told the Fan Radio Network Friday that they called every team picking behind them in the first round, and no one was interested in moving into the 12th spot. So there's that.)
With no one moving up, the Vikings were stuck at No. 12. They had two choices. Either make a pick, or repeat the embarrassment of a few years ago, when they passed on their pick and had to get their selection in as other teams were running to the podium to get picks ahead of the Vikes.
The pick was made on time, and Minnesota chose Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder. I tweeted earlier Thursday that I felt he was the No. 2 quarterback in the draft, and I still feel that way. I like his skill set and how it translates to the NFL a lot more than I like the skill set of Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert, two guys picked ahead of Ponder.
That said, there is a downside to the decision by the Vikings, and it's fair to point that out. It's probably not fair to scream, boo, cry, or throw a chair in protest, but it's fair to say that you don't like the pick. I'm not sure I like the pick, even though I like the player.
As far as pros go, there's the idea that the Vikings had little choice. They could have drafted Nick Fairley or Nate Solder and solidified either the defensive or offensive lines, and not gotten a bad value. They could have gotten Prince Amukamara and added depth to the secondary. But it would have come at the price of likely not getting the needed quarterback of the future -- whether it be Ponder or Andy Dalton, a player the Vikings like.
The lack of a third-round pick would have made it virtually impossible for Minnesota to trade back into the first round without mortgaging much of this year's draft and/or part of next year's draft. That wasn't desirable for a team that needs help at as many positions as the Vikings do. If anything, Spielman probably needs to focus on moving down in the second round if he can, so he can re-acquire the third-rounder that some moron traded for Randy Moss.
I understand the fans' negativity, though. Ponder isn't a sexy pick, and it's hard to argue (Spielman intimated this on the radio more than once) that Ponder was in the Vikings' top 12 on their board. That alone makes this a less-than-great pick. The Vikings have too many needs to be reaching off their board for a quarterback. It's an undeniably important position, but Ponder doesn't help the Vikings much if he's flat on his back, and he doesn't help them much if he's constantly running for his life because Bryant McKinnie can't block anymore.
It also pigeonholes the Vikings a bit, in that they have to make a move for a veteran quarterback when free agency and trades begin, perhaps as soon as Monday. The options aren't great, but the Vikings can ill afford to start the season with Joe Webb, Rhett Bomar, and Ponder as their only quarterbacks, and it doesn't seem like anyone really thinks Brett Favre is walking through that door again.
Of course, with Webb and Ponder on the roster (along with the underwhelming Bomar), the door might just be open ...
Thursday, April 28, 2011
2011 NFL Draft: Vikings and Packers
Of course, nothing's easy in the NFL anymore, and there's a chance we won't get through Thursday without a huge bombshell regarding the lockout that is no more but still kind of is.
What if players are allowed to be traded or allowed to enter free agency Thursday? How does that change the draft? Will there still be five quarterbacks taken among the first 12, as some pundits are predicting?
With so much uncertainty, it's hard to get into a ton of detail, but I'll throw a few thoughts out there.
The Vikings should be focused on taking the best available player. They went 6-10 last year, and should be seriously concerned about their secondary, offensive line, defensive interior, wide receiver, and quarterback positions.
The idea of reaching for a second- or third-round value at quarterback -- the highly-respected Rick Gosselin has them taking Andy Dalton in the first round (at least according to Twitter ... the actual mock is behind a pay wall) -- is pure lunacy and a move mainly coming out of panic. I understand the importance of the quarterback position. Every Packer fan does, because we haven't had a bad one since 1991 and therefore have only had two losing seasons since 1991.
Guys like Tyron Smith, Prince Amukamara, Robert Quinn, Da'Quan Bowers, Corey Liuget, and J.J. Watt are better "fits" for the Vikings, because they fill significant needs. They could all be off the board by pick No. 12. They're all good players who could start right away.
But the NFL is a quarterback league, no matter who is on the cover of "Madden '12" (Peyton Hillis). That drives teams to think they need to overvalue quarterbacks, which of course leads us to guys like Alex Smith, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, David Carr, Cade McNown, and a slew of other former first-round quarterbacks who never panned in the NFL, for a variety of reasons.
The league's image is one that is driven by one position. Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger got all the attention before the Super Bowl, and the story coming out was how Rodgers so badly outplayed Roethlisberger and how Rodgers took better care of the ball. Forgotten was the job Green Bay's receivers did, overcoming drops to make big plays, or how guys like Sam Shields, Nick Collins, and Jarrett Bush made huge plays on defense while Charles Woodson was lost to injury.
The draft is no different. Former NFL scout Dave Razzano talked to Yahoo Sports' Mike Silver in a great piece about his "rogue" status at this point (how is this guy not employed in the NFL?). He also talked to Silver about what can drive a lot of the first-round busts you see in the draft.
Teams often reach for a perceived need, rather than selecting the player they’ve rated the highest. First-round picks, in particular, can be impacted by an owner and/or general manager’s desire to fall into line with media projections (and to therefore receive high marks from reporters who offer instant draft grades).
“If you look at the drafts from 2000 to 2007, 44 top-15 picks have busted out,” Razzano says. “Why is that? Well, for one thing, everybody wants to hit a home run. My attitude is this: Stay away from red flags; just take a solid player. The same goes for later in the draft. You know what guys look for in late rounds? Projects, guys with potential. Again, just pick solid guys. They’ll be productive.”
Razzano talked about a falling-out he had with the Rams in 2005, the year Alex Smith was drafted No. 1 overall by San Francisco. The issue stemmed from Razzano's unwillingness to give Smith a high grade, because he simply didn't think Smith could cut it as an NFL starter. He's not perfect, because he also downgraded Rodgers in that draft, but he's pretty sharp and consistent in his philosophy of trusting what you see from a player on tape.
The Vikings need to be smart and trust their draft board. It's eye-opening, but not surprising, to consider that some NFL teams bow to media pressure when it comes to draft picks. It's probably also not a stretch to suggest that the teams doing the bowing are the teams picking high in the draft all the time.
In the end, teams will do well in the draft if they trust their board and pick the player who is the best-rated when they have a turn to pick. Nothing else matters but that board. It's what you spent all those months building, and if you're not going to trust it on the days you need it, what the hell did you waste all that time for?
The Vikings were 6-10 last year. They're full of holes, so they shouldn't be reaching for a positional need. They also shouldn't be focused on just taking the new starting quarterback in the first round. There will be the chance to make trades and sign free agents at some point. There's nothing wrong with getting a guy like Nathan Enderle from Idaho in the third or fourth round and then signing a free agent to start a couple games while he gets acclimated.
Hell, I bet Brett Favre would even consider coming back at some point.
Oh, wait.
The Packers will not focus on positional needs in the first round, even though they have a couple. This shouldn't be a surprise to any fans, because Green Bay hasn't drafted that way since Ted Thompson came aboard, and that's one of the bigger reasons he's been as successful as he's been. The Packers could use some more depth at linebacker, and they need to find more help at defensive end since Cullen Jenkins really isn't expected back. Additional depth at cornerback and on the offensive line would be good.
While a guy like Akeem Ayers would be a great fit on defense, don't expect him to be on the board at No. 32, and don't expect Thompson to load the truck for a team so he can move up. It's not that great a value, I don't think.
Expect Green Bay to make a pick to finish the first round, unless they can find a team that wants to move into that spot for a price. I don't see them moving up any more than I see them reaching for a player of need.
And even if Thompson screws up the draft, we're not even four months into a five-year moratorium on criticism of the organization. Such is the reward for winning the Super Bowl.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
2011 NFL Draft: Where is the Interest?
Why?
A few reasons ...
- My overall interest is a bit low, largely because I don't think the draft can be top of mind when we still don't know for sure if we're going to have a season that starts on time.
- The UMD hockey season elongated into April, and my focus through the national championship game was on those games and making sure I at least came as close as I could to doing a good job. The draft prep suffered as a result.
- Anytime your favorite team is picking at the end of the first round, it makes everything else a little underwhelming. Don't be looking for the Packers to move up in the first round. If anything, they're more likely to move out of the first round.
Anyway, through the run-up to Thursday night's first round, it's come to my attention that the draft just doesn't have the juice it's had in the past.
I don't know if it's all lockout-related, or if it's because we don't have any real clear-cut franchise players in the top five of the draft, or if it's simply a cyclical thing resulting from the NFL and its partners hyping this to the point that everyone realized how stupid it was and got sick of it.
(NOTE: I don't think the draft is stupid, and I think it's still a watchable, newsworthy event. However, people were doing segments on the draft before the NFL playoffs even ended, and that seems a little -- er, a lot -- ridiculous.)
It was bound to happen, especially with this lockout drama. The league has ticked off a lot of its hardcore fans with this garbage, and the players have played a role in it, too.
Fans -- many of whom are experiencing their own economic struggles and still finding ways to buy tickets and merchandise for their favorite team -- don't like watching owners and players fight over a pot of money so big that no one can really fathom how big it really is.
That's not news to anyone, but yet the NFL seems caught off-guard by everything that doesn't go their way.
That alone infuriates me as a fan, because it's a clear sign that fans are being taken for granted by the league. We're not the only ones. The league seems to assume they're going to win every legal battle, and they probably assume that the players will give in and sign a deal on the owners' preferred terms.
The draft ends up suffering. Fans are going to watch, because that's just what they do. But in the end, the casual fans will watch something else Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. The NFL is an afterthought to so many, because so many feel the NFL thinks they're an afterthought.
I guess it beats the hell out of thinking you have to work for the fans' support, huh?
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Draft Day Tidbits
Thursday marks the first primetime NFL Draft. They probably picked a good year for this move, because there is plenty of drama, especially outside the top pick.Or two picks.
We'll have plenty of coverage, including a live chat, on NFL FanHouse, and you're invited to join us for that.
In the meantime, I have decided not to do a mock draft, since there are approximately four million of them available on the internet. Instead, here are a few takes as we wind down the final eight hours until the NFL's annual "Player Selection Meeting" gets underway in New York.
Ndamukong Suh is the best player in the draft.
I have felt this way since November, when I watched Suh consistently destruct opposing offensive lines. There's just no way around it, but there was also no way that the Rams were going to take him first overall.
For starters, the Rams are trying to build a franchise around this pick. You have to have quality defensive tackles, but you can't build franchises around them.
When you drive through the Twin Cities this summer, and you're looking at billboards touting Vikings season tickets, you're not going to see Kevin or Pat Williams on them. You're going to see Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and that Favre guy. That's just how it is.
Not only that, but can the Rams justify giving $50 million guaranteed to a defensive tackle on a quarterback-less team? Probably not.
The team benefiting the most from this is Detroit, since they pick second and need a defensive tackle ... desperately.
No one knows what Washington is going to do.
Michael Lombardi wrote about this on NFP. There is a ton of uncertainty with the Redskins and their new management -- general manager Bruce Allen and coach Mike Shanahan.
Many people in the NFL believe the draft will start with Washington at the No. 4 pick. No one really has a feel for what the ‘Skins will do, and they can head in a number of different directions. But I keep hearing offensive tackle is not one of the positions they’ll pick — no smoke screen. I have a hunch, and it’s only a hunch, that it might be safety Eric Berry.
This is interesting. We're pretty sure Tampa Bay will take Gerald McCoy third, so the top quarterback and two defensive tackles will be gone when Washington selects. There is a chance the Redskins will look for an offensive tackle, no matter what Lombardi says, because it's a move they probably need to make at some point.
But there are enough holes on the Washington roster that Shanahan and Allen could look in a bunch of different directions and be totally justified in their decision.
The Tim Tebow factor reigns supreme.
Mike Florio of the ever-popular Pro Football Talk likes to remind people of this.
It only takes one.
Yes, there are 32 teams in the NFL. But if just one of them values a player as a blue-chipper or a first-rounder, the player can be considered those things.
Tebow is this year's example of a polarizing player who only needs that one team to see value in him.
The hunch is that more than one team thinks of Tebow as a first-round pick, and it's hard to imagine he'll still be on the board when the teams reconvene Friday for the second round. Instead, if (and I mean "if") Tebow lasts until the bottom portion of the first round, you can expect teams to jockey to get in a position to take him.
Of course, you never know when you'll see a curveball thrown. Maybe Tebow is more solidly a first-rounder than we all think he is.
This aspect of the draft alone is going to be very, very interesting.
Jimmy Clausen's leadership skills are rightfully under fire.
If you saw Clausen get picked apart by ESPN's Jon Gruden, you know what I'm talking about.
The breakdown really starts at the 3:40 mark, after Gruden softened Clausen up a bit by talking about touchdown passes, go routes, footwork, and leprechauns.
Florio saw this and made a very salient point.
Undercarriage of bus? Meet Notre Dame receiver.
On camera, Gruden seemed to measure his words carefully but he still made the unmistakable point that in this situation the blame falls to the quarterback. Off camera, we're hoping that Gruden pulled Clausen aside and said, "Look, Jimmy. You're already getting killed by Todd McShay for having leadership and maturity issues. When you publicly blame your receiver for something that ultimately was your responsibility, you give guys like McShay something tangible to point to. You never publicly blame your teammate like that, not right after the game or six months later or six years later. And if he told you that he saw the hand signal but that for whatever reason he chose to ignore it, then you resolve the situation in house. Regardless, you take the responsibility for not giving the guy a clear signal, for not being sure that he got it, or for not having the kind of relationship with your receiver where he'd never dare do anything other than what you tell him to do."
And, no, we don't know whether Gruden said anything like that. But if he's really trying to help the players and not simply himself, he sure as hell should have.
Bottom line: This calls into real question the leadership skills of Clausen.
Very few quarterbacks -- the class of Marino, Elway, Favre, and the like -- can get away with bus-chucking receivers over interceptions.
Jimmy Clausen, soon-to-be NFL rookie, isn't one of those.
Don't think for two seconds that teams are looking past this clip. They're going to question what Clausen's real leadership skills are, and in a draft where Clausen is competing with Tebow and Colt McCoy for first-round attention, he could be the one who falls.
Noted NFL Draft guru Mike Mayock seems, by the way, to agree with this sentiment.
"There are these nagging concerns about what kind of kid is he and the other night people around the league were talking about this," NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said this morning on the Dan Patrick Show. "He threw his wide receiver under the bus. And quarterbacking 101 is you take responsibility. Everything is your fault."
Jimmy might need to learn this. Perhaps his Gruden experience will be the starting point.
Eric Berry is a factor in this draft.
Lombardi talked about this on NFL Network Thursday morning. He might even come off the board before the Redskins pick at No. 4. That may involve a team moving up to take him, but as we have talked about, it only takes one.
Berry could go as high as third or fourth, but the reality is that he could also fall to the bottom part of the top ten, depending on what teams want to do. He is a highly-rated player, but he plays a position (safety) that doesn't often produce top-notch players with high draft picks.
Jason Pierre-Paul has "Bust" written all over him.
If you still want to indict Mike Mamula all these years later, you'd be comparing him to Pierre-Paul, a player who missed 26 games in his career at South Florida, but has shown the athletic potential to maybe be a top ten pick.
It's that tough balance teams have to strike. You have mountains of tape on a player, and you get to scout them in person at games, followed by Pro Days, combines, and individual workouts.
In the end, the eye in the sky doesn't lie.
Pierre-Paul is an intriguing prospect, but there are flaws. His production in college was a question mark, and when you watch him, it's easy to lose him on plays, especially when he runs stunts.
I think Paul is almost a definite stand-up player at the next level, leaving him as only a real good option for a 3-4 team.
Even then, there is bust potential because of his uneven production and durability in college.
Then again, I once said LaDainian Tomlinson had "bust written all over him," too, so take this with a bit of a grain of salt.
I have no idea what the Vikings or Packers will do.
Part of that is a product of how deep they're picking in the first round. Almost assuredly, someone will fall to them who we don't think should.
Can the Packers get a shot at a guy like Kyle Wilson, Mike Iupati, Taylor Mays, or one of the top offensive tackles? Will the Vikings get a crack at Clausen or Tebow, or will they stick to their needs and look for a top defensive player?
There's reason to believe that both teams will just take the best player available. The Packers seem to have this as a strategy, while the Vikings are practically picking in the second round and should probably employ that method.
The Favre factor is a non-factor for the Vikings. No matter what he does, they are going to need a quarterback unless they laughably think Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels can be the guy.
As for Green Bay, many are projecting them to take an offensive lineman, but there are multiple scenarios where the best player on the board is likely a defensive back, and I don't see them deviating from the idea of staying true to that board that they spent so long working on.
Monday, April 19, 2010
NFL Draft Preview: Anthony Davis
We preview the NFL Draft from the perspective of the Green Bay Packers.
For some time, the potential availability of a guy like Davis at this point in the first round was a pipe dream. The Packers had to think he was out of reach for them, as his athleticism and potential had people drooling.
There are some questions about Davis, however. He struggled at times with his weight, and guys with weight issues in college often develop them at the next level, too. His fundamentals need some work, though he has the athletic ability and talent to play the position, no question.
Will Davis' weight struggles be forgotten amid impressive measurables? Or will they dog him and show a lack of desire to be the best?
Watching the video, there's no question he has the ability to play left tackle in the NFL.
General manager Ted Thompson isn't the kind who likes to take risks on guys who could be character problems. If he thinks Davis won't maintain weight and work hard enough, he will pass on the kid in a second.
On the field, he can go. He's strong, pretty good with his feet, and has the intensity to be effective as a run-blocker. He looks good in pass protection, but you always worry with the mammoth tackles if they can hold up against the speedy rushers you face in the NFL.
Thompson has seen the kid play. He's seen him work out. He's probably talked to him. He has a feel for what Anthony Davis is all about.
Come Thursday, we'll see if he gets a chance to put his knowledge and feelings on Davis to the test.
For some time, the potential availability of a guy like Davis at this point in the first round was a pipe dream. The Packers had to think he was out of reach for them, as his athleticism and potential had people drooling.
There are some questions about Davis, however. He struggled at times with his weight, and guys with weight issues in college often develop them at the next level, too. His fundamentals need some work, though he has the athletic ability and talent to play the position, no question.
Will Davis' weight struggles be forgotten amid impressive measurables? Or will they dog him and show a lack of desire to be the best?
Watching the video, there's no question he has the ability to play left tackle in the NFL.
General manager Ted Thompson isn't the kind who likes to take risks on guys who could be character problems. If he thinks Davis won't maintain weight and work hard enough, he will pass on the kid in a second.
On the field, he can go. He's strong, pretty good with his feet, and has the intensity to be effective as a run-blocker. He looks good in pass protection, but you always worry with the mammoth tackles if they can hold up against the speedy rushers you face in the NFL.
Thompson has seen the kid play. He's seen him work out. He's probably talked to him. He has a feel for what Anthony Davis is all about.
Come Thursday, we'll see if he gets a chance to put his knowledge and feelings on Davis to the test.
NFL Draft Preview: Kyle Wilson
We preview the NFL Draft from the perspective of the Green Bay Packers.
For general manager Ted Thompson, it's a laborious process, but obviously one he's passionate about.
As we head down to the final days before the NFL Draft, Thompson and his scouting and evaluation team are going through the process of finalizing the team's draft board and making sure everything is ready to go for Thursday night's first round.
It's never expected that a Thompson-led staff will do much in that first round, as they usually prefer to stay put or move back.
We've spent time over the past week or so looking at draft prospects Green Bay could have their eye on with their first-rounder, No. 23 overall. The general thought is that the Packers will lean defense with this pick, though as I've mentioned a few times, they will stick to their board, meaning they will likely take the best available player, regardless of position.
With that in mind, we bring you another defensive prospect with this post. It's Kyle Wilson, a cornerback from Boise State.
As you can see, Wilson is an all-around player, and possibly a better overall prospect than Florida State's Patrick Robinson. There's a real chance he'll be off the board by the time the Packers come up.
If he's not, Thompson should take a long, hard look at Wilson.
He's a good cover corner, and he has the ability to be a game-breaker as a punt returner, something that the Packers could really use.
If you don't think he's a hitter, watch him destroy TCU quarterback Andy Dalton at the :35 mark of the above video.
His tackling technique in the open field needs work, and he could probably stand to get a little bit stronger.
The talent is there, however, to suggest he'll be a good player for some time in the NFL. The bad news is that it sounds like he's making his way up draft boards, rendering it somewhat unlikely that he'll be around at No. 23, and I don't see Green Bay moving up to get him when they only have eight picks in the draft.
For general manager Ted Thompson, it's a laborious process, but obviously one he's passionate about.
As we head down to the final days before the NFL Draft, Thompson and his scouting and evaluation team are going through the process of finalizing the team's draft board and making sure everything is ready to go for Thursday night's first round.
It's never expected that a Thompson-led staff will do much in that first round, as they usually prefer to stay put or move back.
We've spent time over the past week or so looking at draft prospects Green Bay could have their eye on with their first-rounder, No. 23 overall. The general thought is that the Packers will lean defense with this pick, though as I've mentioned a few times, they will stick to their board, meaning they will likely take the best available player, regardless of position.
With that in mind, we bring you another defensive prospect with this post. It's Kyle Wilson, a cornerback from Boise State.
As you can see, Wilson is an all-around player, and possibly a better overall prospect than Florida State's Patrick Robinson. There's a real chance he'll be off the board by the time the Packers come up.
If he's not, Thompson should take a long, hard look at Wilson.
He's a good cover corner, and he has the ability to be a game-breaker as a punt returner, something that the Packers could really use.
If you don't think he's a hitter, watch him destroy TCU quarterback Andy Dalton at the :35 mark of the above video.
His tackling technique in the open field needs work, and he could probably stand to get a little bit stronger.
The talent is there, however, to suggest he'll be a good player for some time in the NFL. The bad news is that it sounds like he's making his way up draft boards, rendering it somewhat unlikely that he'll be around at No. 23, and I don't see Green Bay moving up to get him when they only have eight picks in the draft.
Friday, April 16, 2010
NFL Draft Preview: Taylor Mays
We preview the NFL Draft from the perspective of the Green Bay Packers.
If the saying is "Stay true to your board," how do you ignore a player like Mays? Reality is that Mays has the potential to be a special player in the NFL. Yes, he could flame out, and there is risk that he won't adjust well to the pro game.
But just watch the video.
There are things to work on. He goes for the kill shot too much, leaving himself vulnerable to penalties and occasional letters from the commissioner's office. Those types of hits can also take him out of the play, leaving teammates to cover for him because he's not in the right spot.
However, there is a lot of potential for a special safety. Mays has good hands, great closing speed, and the ability to turn a turnover into a touchdown. His size makes him a tough guy to avoid in the deep middle, both for quarterbacks and for ballcarriers.
With Green Bay's weak depth at safety, and Atari Bigby's propensity for spending Sundays standing on the sideline in street clothes, it's hard to imagine Ted Thompson passing up on a guy like Mays if he's available (that's a big "if," by the way).
Thompson likes to talk about how "good players are good players," and the Packers aren't going to turn down a good player.
If they think Taylor Mays is a good player, don't be surprised to see them take him.
If the saying is "Stay true to your board," how do you ignore a player like Mays? Reality is that Mays has the potential to be a special player in the NFL. Yes, he could flame out, and there is risk that he won't adjust well to the pro game.
But just watch the video.
There are things to work on. He goes for the kill shot too much, leaving himself vulnerable to penalties and occasional letters from the commissioner's office. Those types of hits can also take him out of the play, leaving teammates to cover for him because he's not in the right spot.
However, there is a lot of potential for a special safety. Mays has good hands, great closing speed, and the ability to turn a turnover into a touchdown. His size makes him a tough guy to avoid in the deep middle, both for quarterbacks and for ballcarriers.
With Green Bay's weak depth at safety, and Atari Bigby's propensity for spending Sundays standing on the sideline in street clothes, it's hard to imagine Ted Thompson passing up on a guy like Mays if he's available (that's a big "if," by the way).
Thompson likes to talk about how "good players are good players," and the Packers aren't going to turn down a good player.
If they think Taylor Mays is a good player, don't be surprised to see them take him.
NFL Draft Preview: Mike Iupati
We preview the NFL Draft from the perspective of the Green Bay Packers.
You can label a number of positions as ones of need for the Packers. However, general manager Ted Thompson has preached a philosophy over the years of staying true to the team's draft board.
It makes sense, really. Scouts, coaches, and executives have poured over countless hours of tape on players, attended the NFL Combine, attended individual and Pro Day workouts, and conducted interviews with players.
They aren't going to do all of this, painstakingly put a draft board together, and then go off the board because it's decided that they need a defensive tackle.
With that in mind, our look at draft candidates will focus more on players we think could be atop the Packers' board when the No. 23 pick comes around.
One of those players is Idaho offensive lineman, the mammoth Mike Iupati.
As you can see, he's a big boy. After playing guard in college, there's some talk that Iupati could be a fit as a tackle in the NFL.
He is quick off the ball, which would serve him well in Green Bay's blocking scheme. If he turns out to be versatile enough to play tackle (his footwork on the tape I've seen looks a bit spotty, to be honest), he is even more valuable to the Packers.
Left tackle Chad Clifton re-signed on the first day of free agency, but he's not a long-term solution at the position. Neither is right tackle Mark Tauscher, who is also in the fold for 2010. The Packers need to find young tackles who could fill these voids in the near future. While T.J. Lang could take one spot, they still don't have a viable solution for the other.
Iupati might not start right away, but he makes a lot of sense for Green Bay because of his athleticism and versatility.
You can label a number of positions as ones of need for the Packers. However, general manager Ted Thompson has preached a philosophy over the years of staying true to the team's draft board.
It makes sense, really. Scouts, coaches, and executives have poured over countless hours of tape on players, attended the NFL Combine, attended individual and Pro Day workouts, and conducted interviews with players.
They aren't going to do all of this, painstakingly put a draft board together, and then go off the board because it's decided that they need a defensive tackle.
With that in mind, our look at draft candidates will focus more on players we think could be atop the Packers' board when the No. 23 pick comes around.
One of those players is Idaho offensive lineman, the mammoth Mike Iupati.
As you can see, he's a big boy. After playing guard in college, there's some talk that Iupati could be a fit as a tackle in the NFL.
He is quick off the ball, which would serve him well in Green Bay's blocking scheme. If he turns out to be versatile enough to play tackle (his footwork on the tape I've seen looks a bit spotty, to be honest), he is even more valuable to the Packers.
Left tackle Chad Clifton re-signed on the first day of free agency, but he's not a long-term solution at the position. Neither is right tackle Mark Tauscher, who is also in the fold for 2010. The Packers need to find young tackles who could fill these voids in the near future. While T.J. Lang could take one spot, they still don't have a viable solution for the other.
Iupati might not start right away, but he makes a lot of sense for Green Bay because of his athleticism and versatility.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
NFL Draft Preview: Patrick Robinson
We preview the NFL Draft from the perspective of the Green Bay Packers.
Whether or not the Packers sign Brian Westbrook to pretty much fill out the offense, they are likely to lean defense with their first-round pick next week, No. 23 overall.
With that in mind, one guy who is likely to be on general manager Ted Thompson's radar is Florida State cornerback Patrick Robinson.
Watching this video of Robinson in action, it's hard not to see some similarities between his style of play and that of the Packers' two veteran starting cornerbacks.
Robinson has good size, though he's not as big as Charles Woodson. He is probably a little faster than an at-his-peak Al Harris, and keep in mind Harris is now coming off a torn ACL and will be 35, so he's looking less and less like a viable option as a starting cornerback.
You see virtually all the important things you need to see in that video. He's a productive, smart cornerback who seems to enjoy the physical game. He has good closing speed, good anticipation, and is a good tackler.
Not only that, but there's a swagger and intensity about him that can be hard to teach. Given how the Packers have missed in the draft at the cornerback position (guys like Terrell Buckley, Craig Newsome, and Ahmad Carroll have either disappointed or completely bombed out for a variety of reasons), this would be an important "get" for general manager Ted Thompson.
It helps that Robinson fills a need, but there's a good chance he'll be high on the Packers' board when the No. 23 selection comes up.
Whether or not the Packers sign Brian Westbrook to pretty much fill out the offense, they are likely to lean defense with their first-round pick next week, No. 23 overall.
With that in mind, one guy who is likely to be on general manager Ted Thompson's radar is Florida State cornerback Patrick Robinson.
Watching this video of Robinson in action, it's hard not to see some similarities between his style of play and that of the Packers' two veteran starting cornerbacks.
Robinson has good size, though he's not as big as Charles Woodson. He is probably a little faster than an at-his-peak Al Harris, and keep in mind Harris is now coming off a torn ACL and will be 35, so he's looking less and less like a viable option as a starting cornerback.
You see virtually all the important things you need to see in that video. He's a productive, smart cornerback who seems to enjoy the physical game. He has good closing speed, good anticipation, and is a good tackler.
Not only that, but there's a swagger and intensity about him that can be hard to teach. Given how the Packers have missed in the draft at the cornerback position (guys like Terrell Buckley, Craig Newsome, and Ahmad Carroll have either disappointed or completely bombed out for a variety of reasons), this would be an important "get" for general manager Ted Thompson.
It helps that Robinson fills a need, but there's a good chance he'll be high on the Packers' board when the No. 23 selection comes up.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Tebow Bashing Suddenly Stylish
For four years, Tim Tebow was as close to perfect as you could be. He was treated like the second coming at Florida, and his play only justified more and more attention. A Heisman and two BCS titles later, Tebow is preparing to take the next step in his football career.The move to the NFL is going to prove much bumpier than his jump from high school to college football was.
That said, this is getting a little ridiculous. From Sporting News Today:
Florida QB Tim Tebow’s mechanics have been well documented this week, but his mental struggles were apparen Wednesday. He was consistently late on throws, specifically on deep routes. He struggled to locate receivers at the top of his dropback, and he double-clutched almost every time before throwing downfield, telegraphing his passes.
They're not the only ones.
ESPN's Todd McShay has assailed Tebow on live television multiple times this week, making it abundantly clear that he doesn't think Tebow has a snowball's chance on South Beach of making it as a quarterback.
Really? In January? The draft isn't even for three months!
If you want a voice of reason, just check out the work of Greg Bedard.
Don't pay much attention to the reports ripping Florida QB Tim Tebow. Everyone knew it was going to be a bit a process for him to adapt to the pro game, and it will be. But he has the arm strength, he just needs to tighten up his delivery a little bit and make quicker decisions.
I'm not saying Tebow is going to be a great NFL quarterback. Honestly, I don't know.
That's the point, though. Neither does anyone else.
McShay might sound confident on the air, but he's been wrong before. So has everyone else who has tried to break down players in the draft. It's an insanely inexact science.
So why is McShay so anxious to go on the air and rip into Tebow as a potential NFL player three months prior to the draft, and nearly eight months before he could play in a real NFL game?
It's all about moving the proverbial needle. There is one player in this draft who moves that needle. It's not Terrence Cody. It's not Eric Berry or Sam Bradford, either.
That player is Tim Tebow.
It's a double-edged sword. The attention helps him advance himself as a person, but it also can hinder his perception as a player. The more people break him down, the more work he has to do to build himself up in terms of his football skills.
The insistence on immediate reactions and needle-moving conversations is completely understandable, given the world we live in now. Unfortunately, what we're seeing with Tebow is the byproduct of four years of overexposure and hero worship from a portion of the football media.
Makes perfect sense, frankly, that people would try to tear him down at some point.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
CHILDRESS IS FULL OF CRAP
There's an old saying that goes something like this:It ain't bragging if it's true.
I'll be the first to admit that I'm impressed by the athleticism of Vikings first-round pick Percy Harvin. At some point, personal demons have to be set aside, and you just marvel at what this kid can do with a football in his hands.
The Vikings took Harvin with the 22nd overall pick, and while many in the "experts" field were quick to scoff at the selection because of Harvin's myriad of off-field issues, the Vikings were quick to come to his defense.
Head coach Brad "Mr. Happy" Childress flew down to Gainesville himself to interview Harvin. Obviously, he enjoyed himself, as the Vikings appeared locked onto Harvin for quite some time before the draft.
Monday, Childress was interviewed for Grampa Sid's column, and he apparently thinks he outsmarted the outsmartable.
"New England was right in there. They were right behind us [with the 23rd pick]," Childress said. "No, they didn't think we'd take him [because of off-the-field] issues. Remember, they have our receivers coach there now. So they thought they could hold ... and he'd come to them.Yes, folks, Childress is indeed expecting you to believe that the Patriots, extra picks and all, decided to stay put at 23 and hope Harvin fell past the Vikings, who had made no secret of their interest.
"They were down there working him out the day after I was there. And [Harvin] wasn't supposed to tell anybody, and I was trying to pull that out of him, who that was. So, it was a little cat-and-mouse game that occurred."
I totally can see this happening. I'm sure the Patriots employ this strategy all the time when they find guys they really like and want to be able to draft. That's why they've been so successful over the years. They find what they want, and then go after something else.
Bottom line: Childress is full of it, and of himself. There's virtually no chance this played out like he described. If nothing else, he's totally overstating any interest the Patriots may have had. Congratulate Sid, too, for buying - hook, line, and sinker - the preposterous story Childress spun him.
I'm also thrilled that Childress is bragging about talking a kid into going back on his word to a fellow NFL coach. That's beautiful.
(H/T: FanHouse)
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
THE MILITARY TAKES AFTER POLITICIANS
Thanks to Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk, we bring you an update on the saga of former Army S Caleb Campbell.Campbell was taken by the Detroit Lions in the seventh round of the NFL Draft. While past pro prospects from the service academies were forced to serve a military commitment before being cleared to play pro football, Campbell was going to benefit from a new rule.
In the past, athletes from West Point were required to serve five years of active duty in the military before they could begin their professional careers, but military rules have changed, and cadets with the ability to play sports professionally are now allowed to do so while helping out with recruiting efforts for two years.However, in a surprising and poorly-timed flip-flop akin to a political campaign, Campbell has been informed that he will not be allowed to play for the Lions this season. Or next.
In a letter to Lions president Matt Millen dated Wednesday, U.S. Army Lt. Col. Jonathan P. Liba wrote that Campbell has been ordered to give up professional football for "full-time traditional military duties."If I'm Millen, I'm livid about this.
Liba wrote that 2nd Lt. Campbell may ask to be released from his active duty obligations in May 2010.
Liba said Campbell was allowed to enter the draft "in good faith."
Yes, Campbell was a seventh-round pick, and he was probably a better bet to make the practice squad than he was to be a significant player for the Lions this season. That's not the point here.
The point is that the military allowed Campbell to enter the draft, allowed the Lions to choose him, and then pulled the rug out from under both.
As a result, a player who could have taken Campbell's roster spot through the minicamps and organized practices earlier this summer is instead unemployed. Not only that, but the Lions, who invested many hours into preparing Campbell for his first NFL training camp, are now short a safety at a time where it could be difficult to find one of NFL caliber.
Frankly, the Lions should be allowed to seek financial restitution from the military, in the amount of whatever it costs to sign a player for Campbell's spot on the roster.
Just because the military is a part of our government doesn't mean they have to act like the snakes who run our government.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
THE VIKINGS 2005 DRAFT GRADE: F
They say you're supposed to wait three years before judging an NFL team's draft.I've waited three years. The Vikings' 2005 draft was very, very, very bad.
First round, 7th overall - Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina
I could tell a bunch of jokes about drops and such, but they're all old. Williamson was a terrible pick, and the Vikings missed a great opportunity to rebuild after the Randy Moss trade.
First round, 18th overall - Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin
It's harder to blame this one on the Vikings. James was dealt to Washington this week after failing to pass his physical. Shoulder and knee injuries really sunk any chance James had to make an impact. You can't predict these types of things, so while it looks like an awful pick, I'll give Minnesota a mulligan.
Second round, 49th overall - Marcus Johnson, OL, Mississippi
Tough kid who has emerged as a decent player. Not a bad second-round pick.
Third round, 80th overall - Dustin Fox, DB, Ohio State
Who?
Fourth round, 112th overall - Ciatrick Fason, RB, Florida
Didn't last long, and was hardly a serious contender for playing time in a Viking backfield that crowded quickly with the Taylor signing and Peterson pick.
Sixth round, 191st overall - CJ Mosley, DT, Missouri
Decent contribution as a rookie, but ended up with the Jets the last two years.
Seventh round, 219th overall - Adrian Ward, UTEP
I have no idea who this guy is.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
BROHM TO PACKERS
A few things I didn't see coming last August, as I prepared for the college football season.I never thought Louisville would miss a bowl game. They looked like a legitimate BCS contender, and they flopped badly.
I also didn't think QB Brian Brohm's stock would plummet through the basement. Had he come out in last April's draft, he would have been a top ten pick at the worst. I see him as being a better overall prospect than Matt Ryan, who was picked third this year. However, Brohm paid for an extra year in school, falling all the way to the 56th spot in the draft (second round).
That the Green Bay Packers selected Brohm is also a surprise, but it shouldn't be. After all, Ted Thompson is the man making the decisions.
Thompson is the kind of guy who just has to drive the Mel Kipers of the world nuts. You can't predict what he's going to do, or when he'll do it. Packer fans will be okay with his style as long as the team is successful, but there's no doubt Thompson doesn't like to take a lot of risks in the draft.
When in doubt, find a partner and trade down. He did it again in the first round this year, dealing out of the 30th overall selection and picking up selections in the second and fourth rounds from the Jets. He used that second rounder to make another unpredictable move, taking Kansas State wide receiver Jordy Nelson. Nelson wasn't terribly high on many boards, but the Packers like his combination of size, hands, and character. He has a chance to contribute immediately as a kick returner, and he projects as having the potential to be the big outside target this offense needs.
Then came the Brohm pick. Surely, you've tired of coaches and personnel guys crowing about their draft picks with lines like "We never would have guessed he'd be available" or "We had him at the top of our board". For once, such lines were justified. What the hell was Brian Brohm doing available at 56th overall?
It's the kind of thing that makes me wonder if there's too much time between the end of the season and the NFL Draft. You give these people three months to think about their draft board, and you get them thinking that maybe, just maybe, Adrian Peterson isn't that good.
(By the way, Brad Childress says "Thank you for that".)
I'm not saying Brohm is going to the Pro Bowl as a rookie. I'm not even saying he will walk in and take the job.
(Actually, it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that the Packers don't expect him to start right away. My first clue to that? "Aaron's the guy." I'm smart.)
The Packers will say all the right things here. Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic kid, and this job is his to lose. I do feel badly for him, however. You have the team drafting a young prospect. You have your former mentor playing games with the media over the chance he'll return, even though that chance is barely - if at all - measurable.
Overall, a good first day for the Packers, capped with the selection of Auburn CB Patrick Lee. The Packers addressed an immediate need (CB), a probable need (WR), and created at least the potential for competition at the most important position on the field.
And if the past is to be any guide, Thompson's best work is to come Sunday.
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