There were pieces in place.
Just not enough of them.
A lack of depth up front led to a lack of even-strength scoring, and it was that offensive drought that went a long way toward dooming UMD to its first losing season in a while.
How long? UMD's last losing season before 2012-13 ended on March 15, 2008. Freshman defenseman Willie Raskob turned 13 the day before.
"Our standard is a lot higher," senior co-captain Joe Basaraba said. "We expect to win. Last season was tough. Looking at this season, I think the future's bright."
Now, the Bulldogs have regrouped and reloaded for the first season of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference. Optimism is abound that this group can resume its winning ways.
"It's been a fun group," head coach Scott Sandelin, about to start his 14th year at the helm, said. "We've got some good skill and good depth. The freshmen are very exciting."
UMD fans should be excited to see the further development of sophomore forwards Tony Cameranesi and Austin Farley, along with defenseman Andy Welinski. All three of them played huge minutes last season as freshmen, showed themselves more than capable of playing at this level, and return ready to become even bigger parts of this year's team.
They're joined by another strong crop of freshmen, led by the hometown hero, Dominic Toninato. The former Duluth East star tore up the United States Hockey League last season in Fargo, along with Force linemate and fellow UMD freshman Alex Iafallo. The two are joined -- for the start of the season, at least -- by junior Caleb Herbert, who returns to wing after spending nearly all of last season at center.
"The opportunity to keep Dominic and Alex together," Sandelin points out, "two guys that played on the same line and had their chemistry in Fargo, it's like having returning guys, even though they're freshmen.
"And it gives us the luxury to try Caleb at wing. I think he's really enjoying it. There's a ton of skill."
(Remember, Herbert played wing as a freshman and had a great season. He started slowly as a center last year and ended with a relatively unspectacular 25 goals.
UMD's improved depth at forward is undeniable. Cameranesi sat out the exhibition with a minor injury, which put Max Tardy in the middle of Farley and Basaraba. They produced two goals, Toninato scored twice, and freshman Kyle Osterberg was an ignitor on the third line with three points. Osterberg is drawing plenty of preseason praise from 14th-year head coach Sandelin.
"He's a very competitive player," Sandelin said. "He plays kind of a rat role. If people remember Luke Stauffacher, how Luke played, he was an agitator but had the skill to score goals. I think he (Kyle) is very similar to that. He's not going to back down. He's gonna get involved in the corners and all over the rink."
Yes, it was an exhibition against a Canadian college team that didn't stand much of a chance against UMD's skill level. But UMD has players across its lines who can do things, as opposed to last year's squad that was missing that key forward depth.
That improved forward depth should help in another area: The penalty kill. UMD has scored just two short-handed goals over the last two full seasons. The kill wasn't bad statistically last year, but it didn't create much offense.
This year, players like Cameranesi, Farley, Herbert, and others are going to help on the kill. The improved skill level on the PK could give UMD an offensive dimension there it hasn't had since Mike Connolly was roaming the ice at Amsoil Arena.
"We do have the skill to do that if we need a goal late," co-captain Adam Krause said. "Maybe make those power play 'D' a little lazy and flying a guy up (the rink)."
Defensively, Welinski will play on the top pair, but it's unknown who will join him after Drew Olson graduated. Willie Corrin, Derik Johnson, Luke McManus, and Tim Smith all return, and Raskob is joined in the group of newcomers by Wild draft pick Carson Soucy and former Eden Prairie state champion Dan Molenaar.
There are a lot of questions on the blue line, but there is also offensive ability that was missing last year outside of Welinski and the graduated Wade Bergman. Raskob and Soucy both showed a lot of willingness to pinch in the offensive zone during the exhibition. Don't be shocked if we see some growing pains while everyone finds their role in this group.
UMD returns all three goalies, and Matt McNeely, Aaron Crandall, and Alex Fons all started games last year. I think McNeely will get a chance to win the No. 1 job at some point, but I also don't think anyone is going to be in a rush to make that happen. Aaron Crandall has plenty of experience, and there's no reason he can't split duties -- or come close to a split -- while things play out.
"Last year, we were waiting for someone to take it and run with it," Sandelin said. "They need to understand that someone needs to want that and step up and try to grab it. I think it creates some good competition, but the sooner the better (on a No. 1 emerging)."
Sandelin believes that he needs the goaltending to "steal some games" on occasion while a young team grows in front of the net.
Michigan Tech is in town this weekend. It's funny, because even if you go back to Basaraba's freshman and seasons, this program was something seriously awful (4-30-4 that year). Not the case now. The Huskies are a legitimate contender in the new WCHA, one that might look weakened on paper but still has a few very good programs calling it home (Minnesota State was in the NCAAs last year and is a top ten team in the preseason this year, and Ferris State played for the national title in 2012). Settle in, because this will be a fun way to start the season.
"I think it's going to be really similar to what we see week in and week out in our league," Sandelin said. "They play very aggressive. They go hard to the net. They have some big bodies. It's going to be one of those grind it out kind of series. Not a lot of room on the rink."
Next week, the NCHC grind begins. And it'll be a heck of a grind. Just look at the preseason poll. UMD is picked sixth, and no matter what you think of that placement, Colorado College and Omaha are behind us. Neither is going to be an easy out for anyone. It might not have the glitz of the B1G, but the NCHC is a contender for the meaningless label of "toughest league in college hockey."
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Monday, October 07, 2013
Exhibition: Lakehead at UMD
It's entirely too nice outside for this.
Come on. You knew I couldn't get through the first game without some sort of complaint, right?
Off and running at Amsoil Arena, where UMD opens with an exhibition. Abbreviated pregame (6:45 or so) leading up to the 7pm start.
Lines?
Lines.
UMD
Farley - Tardy - Basaraba
Iafallo - Toninato - Herbert
Sampair - Decowski - Krause
Osterberg - Spurrell - Crandall (Justin)
Young
Corrin - Welinski
Johnson - Raskob
McManus - Soucy
Smith - Molenaar
Crandall (Aaron) - Fons - McNeely
LAKEHEAD
Gamache - Alcock - Grondin
Magill - Kaarela - Wilkins
Thompson - Hammond - Carrick
Restoule - Quesnele (David) - DeLory
Quesnele (Mike) - Fillman
Maw - Gilbert
McIntosh - Tessier
Bosch - McDonald
Come on. You knew I couldn't get through the first game without some sort of complaint, right?
Off and running at Amsoil Arena, where UMD opens with an exhibition. Abbreviated pregame (6:45 or so) leading up to the 7pm start.
Lines?
Lines.
UMD
Farley - Tardy - Basaraba
Iafallo - Toninato - Herbert
Sampair - Decowski - Krause
Osterberg - Spurrell - Crandall (Justin)
Young
Corrin - Welinski
Johnson - Raskob
McManus - Soucy
Smith - Molenaar
Crandall (Aaron) - Fons - McNeely
LAKEHEAD
Gamache - Alcock - Grondin
Magill - Kaarela - Wilkins
Thompson - Hammond - Carrick
Restoule - Quesnele (David) - DeLory
Quesnele (Mike) - Fillman
Maw - Gilbert
McIntosh - Tessier
Bosch - McDonald
UMD's Goal: Goals
After a renaissance period of offensive hockey, the UMD men's hockey team fell off a bit last year.
It wasn't completely unexpected.
Yes, Mike Seidel returned after a solid junior season. And Caleb Herbert looked awfully good a sa freshman. However, they were surrounded by unproven players and promising kids. In a college hockey world largely ruled by juniors and seniors, this wasn't a recipe for great success.
So it wasn't a stunner when a freshman-dominated UMD team fell to ninth in the WCHA and finished five games under .500 despite a nice late-season surge that included four straight wins and two quality performances against Minnesota.
Now, those freshmen -- forwards Tony Cameranesi, Austin Farley, and an emerging Cal Decowski, along with big-minutes, big-shot defenseman Andy Welinski -- are sophomores. Expectations on all of them are high, and more promising freshmen join the team for the 2013-14 season.
Seidel is gone, but Herbert is back for his junior season. After a slow start, he picked up his consistency last year, and it sounds like he will move to the middle this season, with former Duluth East star Dom Toninato manning the middle and fellow freshman and former Fargo Force standout Alex Iafallo working a wing on the second line.
Cameranesi stays on the No. 1 unit with Farley and senior co-captain Joe Basaraba, at least for now. With Cameranesi and Farley not being the biggest guys in the NCHC, it's nice to have Basaraba on that line to help make room and keep opponents honest against the highly-skilled sophomores.
In all, UMD's top two lines are more talented, more experienced, and deeper than they were last year. Decowski and co-captain Adam Krause provide more offensive push on the third line, and freshmen Kyle Osterberg and Sammy Spurrell could work themselves into the mix for playing time, along with senior Max Tardy and sophomore Charlie Sampair.
Defensively, I think the Bulldogs could suffer a bit while some new guys get adjusted. UMD will miss Drew Olson more than many realize. He was a steady, smart, heart-and-soul guy whose non-stop effort woke that team up more than once last year. Wade Bergman had a good offensive finish to his career and certainly ate a lot of minutes. Chris Casto started slowly, but came on late last season, and his early departure will hurt, too.
Welinski is joined by holdovers like Derik Johnson, Luke McManus, Willie Corrin, and Tim Smith. Smith is the only senior in this group. Freshmen Carson Soucy, Dan Molenaar, and Willie Raskob should all play big roles. Raskob could be in line for some real minutes with his offensive skill. He came in a year early after Casto left, so chances are he isn't here to sit.
In goal, Matt McNeely and Aaron Crandall will battle for the minutes. Both are capable, and both should be helped mightily by better puck possession and more scoring. They also have to do more, as a team save percentage in the .890s will do nothing for Scott Sandelin's blood pressure.
The Bulldogs are better in the middle, stronger and deeper on the wing, and have some potential talent on defense, especially when it comes to moving the puck. The first part of the season will be a huge key, as the new blue-liners get acclimated and UMD hopes to get off to a good start.
It wasn't completely unexpected.
Yes, Mike Seidel returned after a solid junior season. And Caleb Herbert looked awfully good a sa freshman. However, they were surrounded by unproven players and promising kids. In a college hockey world largely ruled by juniors and seniors, this wasn't a recipe for great success.
So it wasn't a stunner when a freshman-dominated UMD team fell to ninth in the WCHA and finished five games under .500 despite a nice late-season surge that included four straight wins and two quality performances against Minnesota.
Now, those freshmen -- forwards Tony Cameranesi, Austin Farley, and an emerging Cal Decowski, along with big-minutes, big-shot defenseman Andy Welinski -- are sophomores. Expectations on all of them are high, and more promising freshmen join the team for the 2013-14 season.
Seidel is gone, but Herbert is back for his junior season. After a slow start, he picked up his consistency last year, and it sounds like he will move to the middle this season, with former Duluth East star Dom Toninato manning the middle and fellow freshman and former Fargo Force standout Alex Iafallo working a wing on the second line.
Cameranesi stays on the No. 1 unit with Farley and senior co-captain Joe Basaraba, at least for now. With Cameranesi and Farley not being the biggest guys in the NCHC, it's nice to have Basaraba on that line to help make room and keep opponents honest against the highly-skilled sophomores.
In all, UMD's top two lines are more talented, more experienced, and deeper than they were last year. Decowski and co-captain Adam Krause provide more offensive push on the third line, and freshmen Kyle Osterberg and Sammy Spurrell could work themselves into the mix for playing time, along with senior Max Tardy and sophomore Charlie Sampair.
Defensively, I think the Bulldogs could suffer a bit while some new guys get adjusted. UMD will miss Drew Olson more than many realize. He was a steady, smart, heart-and-soul guy whose non-stop effort woke that team up more than once last year. Wade Bergman had a good offensive finish to his career and certainly ate a lot of minutes. Chris Casto started slowly, but came on late last season, and his early departure will hurt, too.
Welinski is joined by holdovers like Derik Johnson, Luke McManus, Willie Corrin, and Tim Smith. Smith is the only senior in this group. Freshmen Carson Soucy, Dan Molenaar, and Willie Raskob should all play big roles. Raskob could be in line for some real minutes with his offensive skill. He came in a year early after Casto left, so chances are he isn't here to sit.
In goal, Matt McNeely and Aaron Crandall will battle for the minutes. Both are capable, and both should be helped mightily by better puck possession and more scoring. They also have to do more, as a team save percentage in the .890s will do nothing for Scott Sandelin's blood pressure.
The Bulldogs are better in the middle, stronger and deeper on the wing, and have some potential talent on defense, especially when it comes to moving the puck. The first part of the season will be a huge key, as the new blue-liners get acclimated and UMD hopes to get off to a good start.
Monday, September 23, 2013
NCHC Preseason Poll: My Votes
Last week, the NCHC posted its inaugural preseason poll, showing Miami on top and UMD sixth. Here's how I voted, with some words on each team.
8. Nebraska Omaha Mavericks
This was tough. I mean, excruciating. But I prioritized a number of things in putting this list together, including scoring balance, defense, and goaltending. I also looked at the fact that UNO appeared to be (again) trending in the wrong direction late last season. The Mavericks went just 3-7 over their last ten games, and two of the wins were over Alaska Anchorage. Also in that span was an exhibition loss to the US Under 18 Team. I don't know what to make of UNO's goaltending, and I just don't think the uber-talented Ryan Walters (Hobey candidate if UNO ends up being better than I'm expecting) and Josh Archibald can score enough to keep the Mavericks out of last place in the NCHC's first season.
7. Colorado College Tigers
If anyone else finishes last in the league, I'd guess it's CC. There's talent here with this group, including the highly underrated Alex Krushelnyski. I think Archie Skalbeck could make a leap this season. CC loses Mike Boivin in the back, however, and I think a lot will end up on the shoulders of freshman Gustav Olofsson (Wild second round pick in 2013) to do things offensively that Boivin (14 goals) did last year. Joe Howe is gone, so the net belongs to Josh Thorimbert for the time being, though he was inconsistent like crazy last year and could get unseated.
6. St. Cloud State Huskies
This was also difficult. There's a ton of scoring talent, with guys like Jonny Brodzinski, Nic Dowd, Kalle Kossila, and youngster Joey Benik, who really emerged in the postseason. Where the Huskies could suffer is the back line, where Nick Jensen departs, leaving Andrew Prochno as the team's top defenseman. He and Kevin Gravel are capable, but the depth isn't as strong here. SCSU was a tough team to figure out, because I do think the experience of last year's Frozen Four run is significant, but the Huskies lost a lot of big-time skill and leadership from that team, and now we'll see if it can be quickly replaced.
5. Denver Pioneers
No more Gwoz means Denver might be slightly less interesting, at least from a reporter's standpoint. But Gwoz doesn't leave a bare cupboard for new bench boss Jim Montgomery. Top recruits like Will Butcher stuck around, and so did senior goalie Sam Brittain, who inherits the No. 1 job for the time being after Juho Olkinuora departed. The Pioneers aren't as deep up front as SCSU, but I think they have more talent on defense and better goaltending. For this Pioneers team, it's going to be all about how they handle the adjustment from Gwozdecky to someone who isn't Gwozdecky.
4. UMD Bulldogs
I believe this team is poised for a rise after a down year. If a No. 1 goalie doesn't emerge, UMD could be in some trouble, but UMD has high-end talent at forward with Tony Cameranesi, Austin Farley, Caleb Herbert, and freshman Dominic Toninato. Andy Welinski is going to be a top defenseman in this new league, and freshman Willie Raskob has a lot of talent. The Bulldogs have to fill some third- and fourth-line holes, but look for this team to display more puck possession, crisper offense, and an improved back line.
3. Western Michigan Broncos
Here's my reach in the poll. The Broncos only scored 87 goals last season, and leading scorer Dane Walters is gone. I'm betting big with this pick on a few things: Chase Balisy becomes a bigger part of the offense, as does Denney Morrison from the blue line; Colton Hargrove emerges as a top-line scoring threat; and Frank Slubowski keeps doing Frank Slubowski things in goal. Andy Murray is a hell of a coach, and it's going to be fun to watch him match wits with guys like Hakstol, Motzko, Sandelin, and Blais on a regular basis.
2. North Dakota
This might be more of a respect vote, because I'm not sure UND has enough defense to win consistently in a tougher league. However, I've wondered this about UND before, and UND's always just fine. North Dakota will do okay this season, too. Rocco Grimaldi will have a huge season, as will Mark MacMillan. There's more than enough talent in the back with guys like Dillon Simpson and Jordan Schmaltz. I do wonder about UND's goaltending, which was shaky at times, but you could do a lot worse than returning two guys who combined for a .916 save percentage.
1. Miami RedHawks
No-brainer, in my view. These polls are impossible, especially with new league alignments, but Miami has the most returning talent in all phases, and it's not like the CCHA was a scrub league last year. Scoring will be balanced, and they have high-end skill guys like Austin Czarnik and Riley Barber back, along with defenseman Matthew Caito and goalies Ryan McKay and Jay Williams. This is a well-coached team that expects to be on top of its league, and I think Miami might be the team to beat, nationally as well as in the NCHC.
8. Nebraska Omaha Mavericks
This was tough. I mean, excruciating. But I prioritized a number of things in putting this list together, including scoring balance, defense, and goaltending. I also looked at the fact that UNO appeared to be (again) trending in the wrong direction late last season. The Mavericks went just 3-7 over their last ten games, and two of the wins were over Alaska Anchorage. Also in that span was an exhibition loss to the US Under 18 Team. I don't know what to make of UNO's goaltending, and I just don't think the uber-talented Ryan Walters (Hobey candidate if UNO ends up being better than I'm expecting) and Josh Archibald can score enough to keep the Mavericks out of last place in the NCHC's first season.
7. Colorado College Tigers
If anyone else finishes last in the league, I'd guess it's CC. There's talent here with this group, including the highly underrated Alex Krushelnyski. I think Archie Skalbeck could make a leap this season. CC loses Mike Boivin in the back, however, and I think a lot will end up on the shoulders of freshman Gustav Olofsson (Wild second round pick in 2013) to do things offensively that Boivin (14 goals) did last year. Joe Howe is gone, so the net belongs to Josh Thorimbert for the time being, though he was inconsistent like crazy last year and could get unseated.
6. St. Cloud State Huskies
This was also difficult. There's a ton of scoring talent, with guys like Jonny Brodzinski, Nic Dowd, Kalle Kossila, and youngster Joey Benik, who really emerged in the postseason. Where the Huskies could suffer is the back line, where Nick Jensen departs, leaving Andrew Prochno as the team's top defenseman. He and Kevin Gravel are capable, but the depth isn't as strong here. SCSU was a tough team to figure out, because I do think the experience of last year's Frozen Four run is significant, but the Huskies lost a lot of big-time skill and leadership from that team, and now we'll see if it can be quickly replaced.
5. Denver Pioneers
No more Gwoz means Denver might be slightly less interesting, at least from a reporter's standpoint. But Gwoz doesn't leave a bare cupboard for new bench boss Jim Montgomery. Top recruits like Will Butcher stuck around, and so did senior goalie Sam Brittain, who inherits the No. 1 job for the time being after Juho Olkinuora departed. The Pioneers aren't as deep up front as SCSU, but I think they have more talent on defense and better goaltending. For this Pioneers team, it's going to be all about how they handle the adjustment from Gwozdecky to someone who isn't Gwozdecky.
4. UMD Bulldogs
I believe this team is poised for a rise after a down year. If a No. 1 goalie doesn't emerge, UMD could be in some trouble, but UMD has high-end talent at forward with Tony Cameranesi, Austin Farley, Caleb Herbert, and freshman Dominic Toninato. Andy Welinski is going to be a top defenseman in this new league, and freshman Willie Raskob has a lot of talent. The Bulldogs have to fill some third- and fourth-line holes, but look for this team to display more puck possession, crisper offense, and an improved back line.
3. Western Michigan Broncos
Here's my reach in the poll. The Broncos only scored 87 goals last season, and leading scorer Dane Walters is gone. I'm betting big with this pick on a few things: Chase Balisy becomes a bigger part of the offense, as does Denney Morrison from the blue line; Colton Hargrove emerges as a top-line scoring threat; and Frank Slubowski keeps doing Frank Slubowski things in goal. Andy Murray is a hell of a coach, and it's going to be fun to watch him match wits with guys like Hakstol, Motzko, Sandelin, and Blais on a regular basis.
2. North Dakota
This might be more of a respect vote, because I'm not sure UND has enough defense to win consistently in a tougher league. However, I've wondered this about UND before, and UND's always just fine. North Dakota will do okay this season, too. Rocco Grimaldi will have a huge season, as will Mark MacMillan. There's more than enough talent in the back with guys like Dillon Simpson and Jordan Schmaltz. I do wonder about UND's goaltending, which was shaky at times, but you could do a lot worse than returning two guys who combined for a .916 save percentage.
1. Miami RedHawks
No-brainer, in my view. These polls are impossible, especially with new league alignments, but Miami has the most returning talent in all phases, and it's not like the CCHA was a scrub league last year. Scoring will be balanced, and they have high-end skill guys like Austin Czarnik and Riley Barber back, along with defenseman Matthew Caito and goalies Ryan McKay and Jay Williams. This is a well-coached team that expects to be on top of its league, and I think Miami might be the team to beat, nationally as well as in the NCHC.
Thursday, September 19, 2013
NCHC Preseason Poll; UMD 6th
UMD has been picked to finish sixth in the NCHC preseason media poll. The survey was filled out by 16 voters, two representing each NCHC team.
Here is the scoop from the new league. I'll post my votes this week.
Here is the scoop from the new league. I'll post my votes this week.
In the Inaugural National Collegiate Hockey Conference preseason poll, Miami University was picked to win the conference, as announced today at the NCHC Media Day at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn. The poll was voted on by a total of 16 media members who regularly cover NCHC teams, two from each institution’s market.
Miami received a total of 115 points, including a league-best seven first-place votes. The RedHawks posted a 25-12-5 record last season and reached the NCAA Midwest Regional final. Miami returns 17 lettermen from last season’s team. North Dakota was second in the poll with 109 points and five first-place votes. UND was 22 13-7 overall last season, reaching the NCAA West Regional final. UND returns 18 lettermen from last season’s squad. St. Cloud State, after reaching the NCAA Frozen Four for the first time in school history last season, was third in the poll with 99 points and four first-place votes. The Huskies return 22 lettermen from last season’s team the finished 25-16-1 overall.
Denver was fourth in the preseason poll (66 points), followed by Western Michigan (61), Minnesota Duluth (43), Colorado College (42) and Nebraska Omaha (41).
Place Team (1st-place votes) Points
1. Miami (7) 115
2. North Dakota (5) 109
3. St. Cloud State (4) 99
4. Denver 66
5. Western Michigan 61
6. Minnesota Duluth 43
7. Colorado College 42
8. Nebraska Omaha 41
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
2013-14 WCHA Predictions
We'll go league-by-league through the western half of our realigned college hockey nation, starting with the league UMD (and many others) left.
The WCHA might not be as strong as it once was, but it houses at least one legitimate top-15 team, and a couple others that would like to stake a claim.
10. Alabama Huntsville Chargers
Mike Corbett takes over as the Chargers' head coach, and obviously there are high hopes that the move to the WCHA will provide the program with much-needed stability. However, that stability might take some time to show itself on the ice. UAH definitely benefits from no longer living such a nomadic existence, but the Chargers aren't ready to contend in a Division I league just yet. There are some building blocks here, with guys like forward Jeff Vanderlugt back, and UAH is young, so the future certainly is better.
9. Lake Superior State Lakers
It could be a struggle out in Sault Ste. Marie this season. The Lakers lose a lot of high-end guys from a so-so 2012-13 squad, most notably leading scorer Domenic Monardo and runner-up Nick McParland. Their depth was hit by the early departure of power forward Kellan Lain. Senior goalies Kevin Murdock and Kevin Kapalka return, and they might have to carry the team early while it finds some offense.
8. Northern Michigan Wildcats
The Wildcats have to shake off some losses, especially the early departure of goalie Jared Coreau, who could have been a real leader on this team had he not turned pro. Junior forward Reed Seckel can score (13 last year), but who sets him up with Matt Thurber gone? And who plays goal with Coreau and his 38 games gone to the pros? Lots of questions for Walt Kyle to answer as his team starts up in a new league.
7. Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves
New administration and a new coach for UAA, as Matt Thomas takes over for the fired Dave Shyiak. If Thomas can get the culture changed, this could turn around quickly. There is talent, especially with sophomore Blake Tatchell, junior Scott Allen, and senior Matt Bailey up front. Thomas needs to straighten out his blue line and find consistent goaltending. Community support wouldn't hurt, either.
6. Alaska Nanooks
UAF snuck over .500 last year, and wasn't really written out of NCAA contention until late in the season. However, leading scorer Andy Taranto departs. Sophomore goalie John Keeney played 27 games last year and should carry the load again in '13-14. Senior forward Cody Kunyk could be in for a big season.
5. Ferris State Bulldogs
Last year in Florida was my first chance to see Ferris State in person, but these Bulldogs have always impressed me from afar. The chances for veteran coach Bob Daniels' team in the new WCHA depend the development of some young forwards. Seniors Garrett Thompson and Cory Kane return, but they need help from guys like Kenny Babinski and Dakota Klecha to add scoring balance. CJ Motte returns in goal after a strong sophomore season.
4. Bemidji State Beavers
Always a well-coached group, Tom Serratore and the Beavers might benefit greatly from the sport's realignment. BSU just didn't have the talent to consistently compete with the likes of North Dakota, Minnesota, and others (their odd hex on UNO notwithstanding). The Beavers, however, do have the talent and work ethic to make noise in this league. And with junior Andrew Walsh, they have the goalie.
3. Bowling Green Falcons
People in this part of the land might not have noticed, but man has Chris Bergeron done a nice job with this program. The record (39-73-14) is underwhelming, but the Falcons look ready to make some strides. Juniors Ryan Carpenter and Dajon Mingo lead the offense, and the Falcons have experience all over the ice. The one exception is goal, where Andrew Hammond is gone.
2. Michigan Tech Huskies
Mel Pearson should have his best this this season. The Huskies have high-end forwards like Blake Pietila, Alex Petan, Tanner Kero, and David Johnstone all back. The early departure of Jujhar Khaira should only be a small dent in the group. Defense and goaltending lacked last season, but the hope is improved depth between the pipes and further development from defensemen like Riley Sweeney and Justin Fillion should help matters.
1. Minnesota State Mavericks
Even if I wanted to, I'm not sure I could make an argument against MSU being the prohibitive favorite in the WCHA. Mike Hastings got this team to the NCAAs last year, and they're only going to be better. JP Lafontaine, Matt Leitner, Zach Lehrke, Max Gaede, and Bryce Gervais are among the top forwards, and the Mavs sport a strong group of defensemen led by Zach Palmquist. Not only is MSU legit in this league, but the Mavericks should be in most preseason top tens. Justifiably so, too.
The WCHA might not be as strong as it once was, but it houses at least one legitimate top-15 team, and a couple others that would like to stake a claim.
10. Alabama Huntsville Chargers
Mike Corbett takes over as the Chargers' head coach, and obviously there are high hopes that the move to the WCHA will provide the program with much-needed stability. However, that stability might take some time to show itself on the ice. UAH definitely benefits from no longer living such a nomadic existence, but the Chargers aren't ready to contend in a Division I league just yet. There are some building blocks here, with guys like forward Jeff Vanderlugt back, and UAH is young, so the future certainly is better.
9. Lake Superior State Lakers
It could be a struggle out in Sault Ste. Marie this season. The Lakers lose a lot of high-end guys from a so-so 2012-13 squad, most notably leading scorer Domenic Monardo and runner-up Nick McParland. Their depth was hit by the early departure of power forward Kellan Lain. Senior goalies Kevin Murdock and Kevin Kapalka return, and they might have to carry the team early while it finds some offense.
8. Northern Michigan Wildcats
The Wildcats have to shake off some losses, especially the early departure of goalie Jared Coreau, who could have been a real leader on this team had he not turned pro. Junior forward Reed Seckel can score (13 last year), but who sets him up with Matt Thurber gone? And who plays goal with Coreau and his 38 games gone to the pros? Lots of questions for Walt Kyle to answer as his team starts up in a new league.
7. Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves
New administration and a new coach for UAA, as Matt Thomas takes over for the fired Dave Shyiak. If Thomas can get the culture changed, this could turn around quickly. There is talent, especially with sophomore Blake Tatchell, junior Scott Allen, and senior Matt Bailey up front. Thomas needs to straighten out his blue line and find consistent goaltending. Community support wouldn't hurt, either.
6. Alaska Nanooks
UAF snuck over .500 last year, and wasn't really written out of NCAA contention until late in the season. However, leading scorer Andy Taranto departs. Sophomore goalie John Keeney played 27 games last year and should carry the load again in '13-14. Senior forward Cody Kunyk could be in for a big season.
5. Ferris State Bulldogs
Last year in Florida was my first chance to see Ferris State in person, but these Bulldogs have always impressed me from afar. The chances for veteran coach Bob Daniels' team in the new WCHA depend the development of some young forwards. Seniors Garrett Thompson and Cory Kane return, but they need help from guys like Kenny Babinski and Dakota Klecha to add scoring balance. CJ Motte returns in goal after a strong sophomore season.
4. Bemidji State Beavers
Always a well-coached group, Tom Serratore and the Beavers might benefit greatly from the sport's realignment. BSU just didn't have the talent to consistently compete with the likes of North Dakota, Minnesota, and others (their odd hex on UNO notwithstanding). The Beavers, however, do have the talent and work ethic to make noise in this league. And with junior Andrew Walsh, they have the goalie.
3. Bowling Green Falcons
People in this part of the land might not have noticed, but man has Chris Bergeron done a nice job with this program. The record (39-73-14) is underwhelming, but the Falcons look ready to make some strides. Juniors Ryan Carpenter and Dajon Mingo lead the offense, and the Falcons have experience all over the ice. The one exception is goal, where Andrew Hammond is gone.
2. Michigan Tech Huskies
Mel Pearson should have his best this this season. The Huskies have high-end forwards like Blake Pietila, Alex Petan, Tanner Kero, and David Johnstone all back. The early departure of Jujhar Khaira should only be a small dent in the group. Defense and goaltending lacked last season, but the hope is improved depth between the pipes and further development from defensemen like Riley Sweeney and Justin Fillion should help matters.
1. Minnesota State Mavericks
Even if I wanted to, I'm not sure I could make an argument against MSU being the prohibitive favorite in the WCHA. Mike Hastings got this team to the NCAAs last year, and they're only going to be better. JP Lafontaine, Matt Leitner, Zach Lehrke, Max Gaede, and Bryce Gervais are among the top forwards, and the Mavs sport a strong group of defensemen led by Zach Palmquist. Not only is MSU legit in this league, but the Mavericks should be in most preseason top tens. Justifiably so, too.
Friday, September 13, 2013
UMD Football: Bulldogs Must Slow Upper Iowa's Offense
WATERLOO, Iowa -- That's right. After (nearly) eight years, it's back on the UMD football beat, at least for one week.
The Bulldogs are at it Saturday night in Fayette, about an hour's drive from here in Waterloo, taking on Upper Iowa in a Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference game.
I've called 293 UMD men's hockey games, a couple UMD women's hockey games, and a slew of high school hockey games since the last time I threw on a headset and called a football game.
I'm equal parts excited and nervous ahead of Saturday, largely hopeful I won't sound like a bumbling idiot who can't get his sports terminology straight.
The Bulldogs beat Sioux Falls 32-7 last week, but Upper Iowa presents challenges that Sioux Falls did not, and you're making a serious mistake if all you do is look at the Peacocks' record from last season (2-9) and just shrug this game off as an easy UMD win. There are challenges afoot for the Bulldogs Saturday, and many of them surround the UIU offense.
The Peacocks run a fast-paced offense that works a lot without a huddle. It's an offense that clicked in a few games last season, rolling up over 40 points in an incredible 106 total plays against Sioux Falls. UIU also topped 90 plays in a game against Minnesota State-Moorhead. For the season in 2012, Upper Iowa averaged nearly 75 plays per game.
"If you let them get a couple first downs, they're a little tougher to defend," veteran defensive coordinator John Steger told me this week. "Plus they'll wear you out a little bit because you can't substitute, and we can't get some of our packages on the field."
"They're a high pace, up-tempo offense," head coach Curt Wiese said. "Definitely a concern is making sure our defense is aligned, that we can slow their tempo offensively."
UIU likes to run out of one-back sets with three wide receivers and an H-back/tight end type on the field. The Peacocks will also spread the field with four and five wide receivers, and they'll let their junior quarterback, Cole Jaeschke, sling the rock around.
It was nearly a recipe for upsets last year, but UIU couldn't finish close games with teams like Southwest, Winona State, Wayne State, or Sioux Falls. The Peacocks gave up late scores to lose to Wayne (field goal with 2:14 left), Southwest (TD with :25 left), and Bemidji State (TD with :40 left). They had chances against Winona and Sioux Falls, but couldn't get the job done or make the key stop.
"I think that's a message to our kids," Wiese said. "Upper Iowa's a team that can sneak up and beat you."
Jaeschke threw five scoring passes in last week's win over Minnesota Crookston, a game where about all that went wrong for Upper Iowa was a couple missed field goals from close range and two botched extra points.
UIU outgained Crookston 565-61 and was never threatened. That won't happen this week.
As good as the offense is for the Peacocks, it's had problems staying on the field. And their defense has struggled to get off of it.
Last year, Upper Iowa averaged barely 26:30 of possession per game. Contrast that with a UMD team that may have run fewer plays per game (70.8 compared to UIU's 74.6), but one that averaged holding the ball for over 33 minutes per game. There were a few games last year where the Peacocks either didn't hit or barely hit 20 minutes of possession. That's a recipe for getting worn out on the other side of the ball when you're playing a team like UMD.
The Bulldogs are content to make stops defensively, then let redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Bauer and sophomore transfer Eric Kline lead the team on long drives as the big heavies in front lean on an Upper Iowa front that isn't blessed with a ton of size or depth.
Both quarterbacks played in the USF win last week, and Wiese said both will play again.
"Overall, thought Drew played extremely well, was confident on the field," Wiese said. He went on to add he thought Kline led "the most important drive of the game. Made a fourth down pass and a third down pass. Played composed."
The Bulldogs got great line play last week, despite starting two freshmen on the offensive front. Left tackle Peter Bateman could quickly become a cornerstone player for a program that churns out all-conference linemen the way Penn State churned out linebackers back in the day. No one thought it was going to be easy to replace a player of Jake Bscherer's caliber, but Bateman got off to a great start in the opener.
When you consider that left guard Andrew Muer is already an all-league and potential All-America player, as is stalwart right tackle Tom Olson, you can see why there's so much optimism about the offensive line. Center Grant Schnobrich is out this week, so junior Andrew Pattock will start.
UMD's other line, the defensive one, was outstanding last week. They routinely got pressure rushing just three, which puts a smile on Steger's face.
"That allows us to do a lot of things," he noted. "When we get them in second and long and third and long, we can pressure people."
That's a big key on Saturday. If the defense can continue to stop the run like it did against the Cougars (Sioux Falls ran for a whole 11 yards all night), it'll force Jaeschke to go to five-step drops and throw the ball downfield. His career accuracy numbers aren't eye-popping, so getting him away from the bubble screens and quick passes that dominate this offense would be a win for the Bulldogs.
One way to do that, as Steger and Wiese both pointed out, is to get the offense off schedule. That means get them into second and long and third and long. It negates the running game, ruins any hopes of gaining traction with play-action, and a defense like the one Steger runs here is going to feast on an offense that is rendered basically one-dimensional.
I expect that UIU will have a good crowd and a pumped-up team for Saturday. It's the home opener, and they'll pull out all the stops to try to get the upset win that eluded them last year.
In the end, if the Bulldogs execute as capable on both sides of the ball, that upset will continue to elude the Peacocks.
Pregame on The Fan 1490 and the Bulldog Sports Radio Network is set for 5:30 Saturday, with kickoff around 6. New starting this weekend: Fans can listen to the live stream on their smart phones. Once the game stream is activated (around 5:20pm), you can use your phone browser, log on to www.fan1490.com, and find the box on the right side that says "Listen to UMD Football."
(That image rotates with other local sports we carry, but it all routes to the same webpage, which is this one.)
Tap that link, and it'll take you to our stream menu. Find the UMD game, tap the "Watch/Listen Live" icon, and you're good to go. We tested this new toy on an iPhone and an Android phone, and it worked just fine.
The Bulldogs are at it Saturday night in Fayette, about an hour's drive from here in Waterloo, taking on Upper Iowa in a Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference game.
I've called 293 UMD men's hockey games, a couple UMD women's hockey games, and a slew of high school hockey games since the last time I threw on a headset and called a football game.
I'm equal parts excited and nervous ahead of Saturday, largely hopeful I won't sound like a bumbling idiot who can't get his sports terminology straight.
The Bulldogs beat Sioux Falls 32-7 last week, but Upper Iowa presents challenges that Sioux Falls did not, and you're making a serious mistake if all you do is look at the Peacocks' record from last season (2-9) and just shrug this game off as an easy UMD win. There are challenges afoot for the Bulldogs Saturday, and many of them surround the UIU offense.
The Peacocks run a fast-paced offense that works a lot without a huddle. It's an offense that clicked in a few games last season, rolling up over 40 points in an incredible 106 total plays against Sioux Falls. UIU also topped 90 plays in a game against Minnesota State-Moorhead. For the season in 2012, Upper Iowa averaged nearly 75 plays per game.
"If you let them get a couple first downs, they're a little tougher to defend," veteran defensive coordinator John Steger told me this week. "Plus they'll wear you out a little bit because you can't substitute, and we can't get some of our packages on the field."
"They're a high pace, up-tempo offense," head coach Curt Wiese said. "Definitely a concern is making sure our defense is aligned, that we can slow their tempo offensively."
UIU likes to run out of one-back sets with three wide receivers and an H-back/tight end type on the field. The Peacocks will also spread the field with four and five wide receivers, and they'll let their junior quarterback, Cole Jaeschke, sling the rock around.
It was nearly a recipe for upsets last year, but UIU couldn't finish close games with teams like Southwest, Winona State, Wayne State, or Sioux Falls. The Peacocks gave up late scores to lose to Wayne (field goal with 2:14 left), Southwest (TD with :25 left), and Bemidji State (TD with :40 left). They had chances against Winona and Sioux Falls, but couldn't get the job done or make the key stop.
"I think that's a message to our kids," Wiese said. "Upper Iowa's a team that can sneak up and beat you."
Jaeschke threw five scoring passes in last week's win over Minnesota Crookston, a game where about all that went wrong for Upper Iowa was a couple missed field goals from close range and two botched extra points.
UIU outgained Crookston 565-61 and was never threatened. That won't happen this week.
As good as the offense is for the Peacocks, it's had problems staying on the field. And their defense has struggled to get off of it.
Last year, Upper Iowa averaged barely 26:30 of possession per game. Contrast that with a UMD team that may have run fewer plays per game (70.8 compared to UIU's 74.6), but one that averaged holding the ball for over 33 minutes per game. There were a few games last year where the Peacocks either didn't hit or barely hit 20 minutes of possession. That's a recipe for getting worn out on the other side of the ball when you're playing a team like UMD.
The Bulldogs are content to make stops defensively, then let redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Bauer and sophomore transfer Eric Kline lead the team on long drives as the big heavies in front lean on an Upper Iowa front that isn't blessed with a ton of size or depth.
Both quarterbacks played in the USF win last week, and Wiese said both will play again.
"Overall, thought Drew played extremely well, was confident on the field," Wiese said. He went on to add he thought Kline led "the most important drive of the game. Made a fourth down pass and a third down pass. Played composed."
The Bulldogs got great line play last week, despite starting two freshmen on the offensive front. Left tackle Peter Bateman could quickly become a cornerstone player for a program that churns out all-conference linemen the way Penn State churned out linebackers back in the day. No one thought it was going to be easy to replace a player of Jake Bscherer's caliber, but Bateman got off to a great start in the opener.
When you consider that left guard Andrew Muer is already an all-league and potential All-America player, as is stalwart right tackle Tom Olson, you can see why there's so much optimism about the offensive line. Center Grant Schnobrich is out this week, so junior Andrew Pattock will start.
UMD's other line, the defensive one, was outstanding last week. They routinely got pressure rushing just three, which puts a smile on Steger's face.
"That allows us to do a lot of things," he noted. "When we get them in second and long and third and long, we can pressure people."
That's a big key on Saturday. If the defense can continue to stop the run like it did against the Cougars (Sioux Falls ran for a whole 11 yards all night), it'll force Jaeschke to go to five-step drops and throw the ball downfield. His career accuracy numbers aren't eye-popping, so getting him away from the bubble screens and quick passes that dominate this offense would be a win for the Bulldogs.
One way to do that, as Steger and Wiese both pointed out, is to get the offense off schedule. That means get them into second and long and third and long. It negates the running game, ruins any hopes of gaining traction with play-action, and a defense like the one Steger runs here is going to feast on an offense that is rendered basically one-dimensional.
I expect that UIU will have a good crowd and a pumped-up team for Saturday. It's the home opener, and they'll pull out all the stops to try to get the upset win that eluded them last year.
In the end, if the Bulldogs execute as capable on both sides of the ball, that upset will continue to elude the Peacocks.
******
Pregame on The Fan 1490 and the Bulldog Sports Radio Network is set for 5:30 Saturday, with kickoff around 6. New starting this weekend: Fans can listen to the live stream on their smart phones. Once the game stream is activated (around 5:20pm), you can use your phone browser, log on to www.fan1490.com, and find the box on the right side that says "Listen to UMD Football."
(That image rotates with other local sports we carry, but it all routes to the same webpage, which is this one.)
Tap that link, and it'll take you to our stream menu. Find the UMD game, tap the "Watch/Listen Live" icon, and you're good to go. We tested this new toy on an iPhone and an Android phone, and it worked just fine.
Wednesday, September 04, 2013
2013 NFL Predictions
Federal law requires that all sports blogging types submit NFL season predictions, despite the fact that the NFL becomes more difficult to predict every season.
Look around the eight divisions. There might be some races that "look" like slam dunks, and there are actually a couple that appear to be real-life slam dunks. However, keep a few things in mind:
That's where this becomes difficult. If you aren't picking four teams to turn over, you probably aren't going to be right. But it's often very difficult to find the teams that will miss out to make room.
With all that in mind, here we go on another season of incorrect NFL predictions.
NFC EAST
1. Dallas
2. NY Giants
3. Washington
4. Philadelphia
Romo. Romo. Romo. Romo. Romo. I'm putting my chips to the middle, betting on Tony Romo. Help me. Don't be shocked if Philly jumps Washington. I think Chip Kelly is going to do some things there.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay
2. Detroit
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
The Packers are probably the best team in this division, but they better stay healthy. Especially You-Know-Who. Detroit is a darkhorse. Reggie Bush makes an impact. I don't trust Minnesota's quarterback or secondary.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans
2. Carolina*
3. Atlanta
4. Tampa Bay
I think Sean Payton and Drew Brees pick up the pieces and have a big year. This isn't a knock on Atlanta, but I think they're old in some key spots and I still think Matt Ryan is a tad overrated.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco
2. Seattle*
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona
Seattle edges St. Louis for a Wild Card spot, but if the Seahawks don't get healthy at wide receiver, this result could flip. San Fran is still the top dog with the best coach (ugh) in the division.
AFC EAST
1. New England
2. Miami
3. NY Jets
4. Buffalo
Closer than you might think, but the Patriots have too many weapons at this point. Jets edge the Bills in the most compelling third place race in AFC East history.
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati
2. Cleveland*
3. Baltimore
4. Pittsburgh
What? Yes. Bengals are ready to assume the perch. Browns will shock the world, while the Ravens suffered too many offseason departures to be a playoff team again. Don't fret. They'll be back shortly.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston
2. Indianapolis
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville
Ugly. Houston could clinch this in Week 11. Colts can't repeat last year's magic.
AFC WEST
1. Denver
2. Kansas City*
3. San Diego
4. Oakland
Easiest division to pick, which means this will be horribly wrong somehow. Kansas City was remarkably unlucky last year, and Andy Reid will make sure that doesn't repeat itself.
PLAYOFFS
NFC
1. New Orleans
2. San Francisco
3. Dallas
4. Green Bay
5. Carolina
6. Seattle
WILD CARD
Seattle over Dallas
Carolina over Green Bay
DIVISIONAL
New Orleans over Carolina
San Francisco over Seattle
CHAMPIONSHIP
New Orleans over San Francisco
AFC
1. Houston
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Kansas City
6. Cleveland
WILD CARD
Cincinnati over Cleveland
New England over Kansas City
DIVISIONAL
Cincinnati over Denver
Houston over New England
CHAMPIONSHIP
Houston over Cincinnati
SUPER BOWL
New Orleans over Houston
Look around the eight divisions. There might be some races that "look" like slam dunks, and there are actually a couple that appear to be real-life slam dunks. However, keep a few things in mind:
- In a normal season, there is a playoff turnover of around five teams. In fact, last year broke a 16-year run of there being at least five new teams in the NFL playoffs.
- Every other year since 2007, there has been a six-team turnover in the playoffs. This is the "other" year, so the pattern says there will be six new teams in the tournament.
That's where this becomes difficult. If you aren't picking four teams to turn over, you probably aren't going to be right. But it's often very difficult to find the teams that will miss out to make room.
With all that in mind, here we go on another season of incorrect NFL predictions.
NFC EAST
1. Dallas
2. NY Giants
3. Washington
4. Philadelphia
Romo. Romo. Romo. Romo. Romo. I'm putting my chips to the middle, betting on Tony Romo. Help me. Don't be shocked if Philly jumps Washington. I think Chip Kelly is going to do some things there.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay
2. Detroit
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
The Packers are probably the best team in this division, but they better stay healthy. Especially You-Know-Who. Detroit is a darkhorse. Reggie Bush makes an impact. I don't trust Minnesota's quarterback or secondary.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans
2. Carolina*
3. Atlanta
4. Tampa Bay
I think Sean Payton and Drew Brees pick up the pieces and have a big year. This isn't a knock on Atlanta, but I think they're old in some key spots and I still think Matt Ryan is a tad overrated.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco
2. Seattle*
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona
Seattle edges St. Louis for a Wild Card spot, but if the Seahawks don't get healthy at wide receiver, this result could flip. San Fran is still the top dog with the best coach (ugh) in the division.
AFC EAST
1. New England
2. Miami
3. NY Jets
4. Buffalo
Closer than you might think, but the Patriots have too many weapons at this point. Jets edge the Bills in the most compelling third place race in AFC East history.
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati
2. Cleveland*
3. Baltimore
4. Pittsburgh
What? Yes. Bengals are ready to assume the perch. Browns will shock the world, while the Ravens suffered too many offseason departures to be a playoff team again. Don't fret. They'll be back shortly.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston
2. Indianapolis
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville
Ugly. Houston could clinch this in Week 11. Colts can't repeat last year's magic.
AFC WEST
1. Denver
2. Kansas City*
3. San Diego
4. Oakland
Easiest division to pick, which means this will be horribly wrong somehow. Kansas City was remarkably unlucky last year, and Andy Reid will make sure that doesn't repeat itself.
PLAYOFFS
NFC
1. New Orleans
2. San Francisco
3. Dallas
4. Green Bay
5. Carolina
6. Seattle
WILD CARD
Seattle over Dallas
Carolina over Green Bay
DIVISIONAL
New Orleans over Carolina
San Francisco over Seattle
CHAMPIONSHIP
New Orleans over San Francisco
AFC
1. Houston
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Kansas City
6. Cleveland
WILD CARD
Cincinnati over Cleveland
New England over Kansas City
DIVISIONAL
Cincinnati over Denver
Houston over New England
CHAMPIONSHIP
Houston over Cincinnati
SUPER BOWL
New Orleans over Houston
Sunday, September 01, 2013
Wisconsin Badger Football: What We Know
Already covered the Gophers. Now it's Wisconsin's turn.
Here's what we know about the Badgers.
The coach changes, but the mentality doesn't.
There have been some rumblings out of Madison that indicate Gary Andersen is going to be easier on the local beat writers than Bret Bielema was. Outside of that, not much is changing.
Andersen wants this team to play strong defense and run the hell out of the ball. Sound familiar?
The Badgers aren't going spread/five wide/throw 60 times a game anytime soon, unless you control the team in a video game. And even then it would look weird.
We don't know who the quarterback is.
I'd love to provide insight here, but I can't. I think both Joel Stave and Curt Phillips are going to see time in the first two games, which are presumed layups against Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech. Andersen knows he has to figure out which guy is his guy before a Sept. 14 game at Arizona State.
Stave has a good arm, but has yet to show consistent accuracy, especially deep. Phillips doesn't have the arm strength, but he's a better runner. With a consistent deep threat in Jared Abbrederis, there's no reason Wisconsin can't be effective throwing the ball. And the better UW is in that regard, the more openings guys like James White and Melvin Gordon will have to carry the rock.
White and Gordon are both good, but Gordon will be the man by the end of the season.
The running game will survive without Montee Ball. White knows this offense inside and out, but Gordon is going to end up being the bell cow. He has decent enough size, but his speed is off the charts. He'll break more big plays than White, and while the temptation will be to limit his carries early, that big-time big-play potential will win Gordon about a 60 percent share of the carries he and White get by midseason.
The defense will be very good.
I like some of the pieces on this defense, most notably Ethan Armstrong and Chris Borland. Bielema was such a highly-touted defensive coach that it's easy to dismiss Andersen's credentials in that area. Coordinator Dave Aranda will dial up the right mix of fronts and coverages to confuse quarterbacks and put players in good positions.
I don't know what the ceiling of this team is.
I could see the Badgers posting another 8-5 type season. Really, I could, and I don't think it would be a grand disappointment.
It's also conceivable that UW could win 11 games, losing only to Ohio State (sorry, I don't see it happening). I'm not sure Andersen could ask for a better debut.
No matter what, much of Wisconsin's success is going to ride on the arm of someone. Probably Stave, because he has all the upside at this point.
Here's what we know about the Badgers.
The coach changes, but the mentality doesn't.
There have been some rumblings out of Madison that indicate Gary Andersen is going to be easier on the local beat writers than Bret Bielema was. Outside of that, not much is changing.
Andersen wants this team to play strong defense and run the hell out of the ball. Sound familiar?
The Badgers aren't going spread/five wide/throw 60 times a game anytime soon, unless you control the team in a video game. And even then it would look weird.
We don't know who the quarterback is.
I'd love to provide insight here, but I can't. I think both Joel Stave and Curt Phillips are going to see time in the first two games, which are presumed layups against Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech. Andersen knows he has to figure out which guy is his guy before a Sept. 14 game at Arizona State.
Stave has a good arm, but has yet to show consistent accuracy, especially deep. Phillips doesn't have the arm strength, but he's a better runner. With a consistent deep threat in Jared Abbrederis, there's no reason Wisconsin can't be effective throwing the ball. And the better UW is in that regard, the more openings guys like James White and Melvin Gordon will have to carry the rock.
White and Gordon are both good, but Gordon will be the man by the end of the season.
The running game will survive without Montee Ball. White knows this offense inside and out, but Gordon is going to end up being the bell cow. He has decent enough size, but his speed is off the charts. He'll break more big plays than White, and while the temptation will be to limit his carries early, that big-time big-play potential will win Gordon about a 60 percent share of the carries he and White get by midseason.
The defense will be very good.
I like some of the pieces on this defense, most notably Ethan Armstrong and Chris Borland. Bielema was such a highly-touted defensive coach that it's easy to dismiss Andersen's credentials in that area. Coordinator Dave Aranda will dial up the right mix of fronts and coverages to confuse quarterbacks and put players in good positions.
I don't know what the ceiling of this team is.
I could see the Badgers posting another 8-5 type season. Really, I could, and I don't think it would be a grand disappointment.
It's also conceivable that UW could win 11 games, losing only to Ohio State (sorry, I don't see it happening). I'm not sure Andersen could ask for a better debut.
No matter what, much of Wisconsin's success is going to ride on the arm of someone. Probably Stave, because he has all the upside at this point.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Minnesota Gopher Football: What We Know
As college football kicks off this week, it's time to look at the teams local people (allegedly) care about. One of those is Minnesota. The Gophers open up Thursday at home against UNLV. You might remember last year, when Minnesota needed three overtimes to topple the tenacious (and awful) Runnin' Rebels.
Before you settle in for kickoff of the season, here is what you need to know about the Gophers.
Philip Nelson will be better.
Not many top-flight college football teams start true freshmen at quarterback and succeed. Nelson was not really one of them, but the seven games he got to start provided him with valuable experience heading into a big sophomore season. No more does Nelson have to stand in the shadow of athletic enigma MarQueis Gray, who has moved on. Max Shortell, who played as a freshman in 2011, has transferred.
This is Nelson's team. Look for him to take advantage of the confidence his coaches have shown in him.
I'm not proclaiming Nelson a Heisman candidate or anything, but he will improve as he learns more about the level he's playing at.
He should have strong protection from right tackle Josh Campion and left tackle Marek Lenkiewicz (or Ed Olson, I guess), so the hope is he won't be harassed into bad decisions and take a lot of unnecessary hits.
Nelson has a good arm, is a good athlete, and has a better grasp of the offense than ever before. With Mitch Leidner available to play but not pushing Nelson, this is his time.
I don't know who Nelson will throw to.
Part of Nelson's development will be the Gophers coming up with some quality options on the outside. There have been times recently where Gray, a freaking quarterback, looked like the team's best option at receiver. Guys like Derrick Engel and Isaac Fruechte are the best experienced receivers, and they combined for 34 catches last year.
Minnesota figures to be quite young in the passing game. Engel and Fruechte are both juniors, as are receivers KJ Maye and Logan Hutton. Tight ends Drew Goodger and Logan Plsek are both sophomores.
Someone has to step up and give Nelson a target, or all of this is naught.
Donnell Kirkwood can play.
He didn't crack 1,000 yards, but Kirkwood became the most valuable player on Minnesota's offense last year. The Gophers averaged a decent 150-plus yards per game, but didn't do well in short-yardage or goal line situations.
Kirkwood isn't a big dude, and neither is promising freshman Berkley Edwards (he's out at least the first game with an ankle injury). But they have speed to burn, and given how Jerry Kill limited Kirkwood's snaps in the spring sessions and fall camp, he should be plenty fresh and ready to be Minnesota's bell-cow back this fall.
Minnesota has to improve in short yardage, but at least part of that comes from blocking, and the offensive line is big, experienced, and more talented than last year.
Ra'Shede Hageman is legit.
There are no guarantees in football, especially for linemen, where one guy falling onto your leg can alter your career.
But Hageman is developing into a guy who will get his name called by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell at the 2014 draft. In other words, he is a budding first-round pick.
Hageman had six sacks last season, and appeared to finally start tapping into his huge potential. The 311-pounder provides the Gophers with a lot of push in the middle. He's a great athlete for his size, and he has a better understanding of how to beat blockers.
I look at Hageman and see a guy who could potentially play as an under tackle in a 4-3 defense, or as a defensive end in a 3-4 look. In Minnesota's 4-3, he's a great fit as a tackle. If he continues to fulfill his potential, Hageman will win some awards this season, and he will get paid next spring.
The schedule is entirely too difficult for the Gophers to be a contender.
The team has too many holes. I like Nelson, but don't know that he's a star yet. The wide receiving corps is really thin and lacks a true star. Despite Hageman's presence, there isn't enough play-making ability in the front seven for the defense to take a huge step forward.
Oh, and the Gophers will come off a month's worth of non-conference layups to face this Big Ten gauntlet: Michigan (away), Northwestern (away), Nebraska (home), Penn State (home), Wisconsin (home), Michigan State (away).
The talent is there for seven wins, which would be nice, or eight wins, which would be a breakthrough. But 6-6 isn't out of the question, and how would "Gopher Nation" react to that?
Before you settle in for kickoff of the season, here is what you need to know about the Gophers.
Philip Nelson will be better.
Not many top-flight college football teams start true freshmen at quarterback and succeed. Nelson was not really one of them, but the seven games he got to start provided him with valuable experience heading into a big sophomore season. No more does Nelson have to stand in the shadow of athletic enigma MarQueis Gray, who has moved on. Max Shortell, who played as a freshman in 2011, has transferred.
This is Nelson's team. Look for him to take advantage of the confidence his coaches have shown in him.
I'm not proclaiming Nelson a Heisman candidate or anything, but he will improve as he learns more about the level he's playing at.
He should have strong protection from right tackle Josh Campion and left tackle Marek Lenkiewicz (or Ed Olson, I guess), so the hope is he won't be harassed into bad decisions and take a lot of unnecessary hits.
Nelson has a good arm, is a good athlete, and has a better grasp of the offense than ever before. With Mitch Leidner available to play but not pushing Nelson, this is his time.
I don't know who Nelson will throw to.
Part of Nelson's development will be the Gophers coming up with some quality options on the outside. There have been times recently where Gray, a freaking quarterback, looked like the team's best option at receiver. Guys like Derrick Engel and Isaac Fruechte are the best experienced receivers, and they combined for 34 catches last year.
Minnesota figures to be quite young in the passing game. Engel and Fruechte are both juniors, as are receivers KJ Maye and Logan Hutton. Tight ends Drew Goodger and Logan Plsek are both sophomores.
Someone has to step up and give Nelson a target, or all of this is naught.
Donnell Kirkwood can play.
He didn't crack 1,000 yards, but Kirkwood became the most valuable player on Minnesota's offense last year. The Gophers averaged a decent 150-plus yards per game, but didn't do well in short-yardage or goal line situations.
Kirkwood isn't a big dude, and neither is promising freshman Berkley Edwards (he's out at least the first game with an ankle injury). But they have speed to burn, and given how Jerry Kill limited Kirkwood's snaps in the spring sessions and fall camp, he should be plenty fresh and ready to be Minnesota's bell-cow back this fall.
Minnesota has to improve in short yardage, but at least part of that comes from blocking, and the offensive line is big, experienced, and more talented than last year.
Ra'Shede Hageman is legit.
There are no guarantees in football, especially for linemen, where one guy falling onto your leg can alter your career.
But Hageman is developing into a guy who will get his name called by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell at the 2014 draft. In other words, he is a budding first-round pick.
Hageman had six sacks last season, and appeared to finally start tapping into his huge potential. The 311-pounder provides the Gophers with a lot of push in the middle. He's a great athlete for his size, and he has a better understanding of how to beat blockers.
I look at Hageman and see a guy who could potentially play as an under tackle in a 4-3 defense, or as a defensive end in a 3-4 look. In Minnesota's 4-3, he's a great fit as a tackle. If he continues to fulfill his potential, Hageman will win some awards this season, and he will get paid next spring.
The schedule is entirely too difficult for the Gophers to be a contender.
The team has too many holes. I like Nelson, but don't know that he's a star yet. The wide receiving corps is really thin and lacks a true star. Despite Hageman's presence, there isn't enough play-making ability in the front seven for the defense to take a huge step forward.
Oh, and the Gophers will come off a month's worth of non-conference layups to face this Big Ten gauntlet: Michigan (away), Northwestern (away), Nebraska (home), Penn State (home), Wisconsin (home), Michigan State (away).
The talent is there for seven wins, which would be nice, or eight wins, which would be a breakthrough. But 6-6 isn't out of the question, and how would "Gopher Nation" react to that?
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