Most of this week's posts will be draft-intensive...just so you're warned.
You can get scouting reports all over the internet. Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sportsline, FOX Sports, and ESPN Insider will all have scouting reports on various players, and there are draft guide magazines everywhere that you can buy books and magazines. So I'm not going to waste time rating players. I will have a mock draft later in the week, but I'm going to start the week by focusing on the primary needs of the two teams I cover, the Packers and the Vikings. We'll start with the Packers, who went 4-12 last year and probably have a few more holes than the Vikings do (insert obligatory "Swiss cheese" joke).
(Please note: Because this draft is not about Brett Favre, and Brett Favre's status is probably not going to be a huge factor - if it isn't a complete non-factor - in the Pack's draft strategy, Brett Favre will receive no further mention in this piece. Belated thanks go out to the folks at ESPN for airing a two-minute piece on SportsCenter Sunday that said absolutely nothing about Favre's status with the Packers, which is the only mentionable part of this story. ESPN instead focused on the fact that Favre is still a topic of conversation on sports radio in Green Bay, and they managed to do so without giving any kind of idea what the majority of fans are thinking about the issue. OMG BREAKING NEWS: EITHER BRETT FAVRE IS COMING BACK OR HE ISN'T.)
The Packers had a bad season last year, and as a result, they pick fifth in this year's draft. That's a good thing, since general manager Ted Thompson didn't bother to spend the truckload of cap room the Packers entered the offseason with. He wants to build the core of this team in the draft, and use free agency to supplement the roster instead of using free agency to build the core of the team. Only time will tell if this strategy will really work, but much of the "Why didn't we sign anyone?" talk is tempered by the fact that this team was so tantalizingly close in so many games a year ago (eight of the 12 losses came by a combined 31 points).
WHEN DO THE PACKERS PICK:
1st round (5) - 5th overall
2nd round (4) - 36th overall
3rd round (3) - 67th overall
4th round (7) - 104th overall
5th round (6) - 139th overall
5th round (33) - 165th overall
7th round (45) - 253rd overall
PRIMARY TEAM NEEDS
OLB -->The Packers have some nice players at the linebacker position. Nick Barnett is still developing, and he has some work to do, but Barnett is one of the few players that Mike Sherman drafted who should work out quite nicely for the Packers. However, Barnett is not an overly physical player, and he also doesn't strike as a leader on defense. With Na'il Diggs and Paris Lenon both gone, and Robert Thomas joining Barnett as the only returning player at linebacker, the Packers know they have a need here. They signed Ben Taylor away from Cleveland, but he's hardly a star. A player like A.J. Hawk from Ohio State would be a great pick for Green Bay in the first round. Hawk is a physical player who can make plays all over the field, and his teammates feed off his energy level and intensity. If the Packers look elsewhere with their first-round selection, they could fill this void later in the draft with a player like Bobby Carpenter (also from tOSU) or Thomas Howard (UTEP). Either way, Thompson knows he probably needs to leave this draft with a starting OLB.
OG --> Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle left, and I went on some rant about how offensive guards were being ridiculously overpaid (something I still believe is true, especially given the stupid contract that the Vikings gave Steve Hutchinson). Then, contrary to my rant, the interior of the Packers' offensive line fell apart in 2005, leading to much of the sucktitude that was 4-12. Then Thompson let the Texans overpay for center Mike Flanagan in free agency, so the entire interior of the Packers' line needs to be rebuilt. While there aren't any solid first-round prospects at guard, Georgia's Max Jean-Gilles is a potential second-rounder, and Oklahoma's Davin Joseph could be a fit in Green Bay, too. A good second-day selection could be a guy like Minnesota's Mark Setterstrom. Look for Thompson to get at least one starting-caliber guard out of this draft.
WR --> The Packers have a problem. Their best receiver, Javon Walker, would like to be traded, and he says he'll retire rather than play in Green Bay again. Donald Driver is a nice complimentary piece, but he's not an elite receiver. Robert Ferguson drops too many passes and has missed out on a number of opportunities to increase his role with the team. Rod Gardner has never been able to seize chances to be a top receiver. The Packers need someone who has the ability to be a #1 receiver, and while this draft doesn't yield any blue-chip prospects, they'd be wise to try to grab a developmental prospect like Greg Lee of Pittsburgh or Martin Nance of Miami (Ohio) - the type of player who will be on the board late in the first day of the draft and could develop into an elite receiver within a couple of years.
DB --> Al Harris and Nick Collins are solid starters. The Packers thought enough of safety Marquand Manuel to sign him to a five-year deal, so conventional wisdom suggests that he'll start. However, the Packers need a solid second CB to take the pressure off of Harris, and Ahmad Carroll doesn't appear to be the answer at that position. If a player like South Carolina's Johnathan Joseph falls into the second round, the Packers could take a look at him. There are also rumors that Green Bay is interested in Texas CB/S Michael Huff and could trade down a few spots to get him late in the top ten.
C --> With Flanagan gone, it appears the Packers will try to replace him with a younger player. Scott Wells filled in at guard in 2005, and likely will start at center in 2006. With the pool at center pretty talented this year, the Packers will probably try to get a prospect in the second day who can help provide some depth along the interior of the offensive line. A player like Ryan Cook out of New Mexico could be a good pick-up early in the second day.
DE --> The Packers spent a lot of money to re-sign Aaron Kampman, and they have a lot invested in Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, but they don't have much behind either player. The Packers need a big, physical end who can push KGB for playing time on rushing downs, as it will help keep him fresh for pass-rushing situations where KGB is still a tough player to block. A late-round prospect such as Devan Long of Oregon or Darrell Adams of Virginia could be a perfect fit.
DT --> While the starting lineup appears set for 2006 (Ryan Pickett and Cullen Jenkins/Corey Williams), the depth is in flux. Donnell Washington has promise, and Colin Cole has shown some flashes. Thompson should still keep his eyes open for a run-stuffer in this draft. Tennessee's Jesse Mahelona and Texas A&M's Johnny Jolly are both run-stopping prospects who could be on the board early in the second day.
FIRST ROUND BEST BET
Hawk. He fits the Packers' OLB needs, and he is also a potential leader on a defense that severely lacked any leadership and was incredibly soft the past two years. If the first four picks shake down the right way, Green Bay could make a trade down a few spots, pick up an extra pick on the first day, and still get a strong defensive back prospect like Huff - or maybe Hawk would slip far enough to let the Pack sucker an extra pick out of a team like Oakland and still get him.
Here's my read on the Packers' first-round selection, listed in order of likelihood:
1. Hawk
2. Trade down
3. Trade up for Mario Williams (DE, NC State)
4. Huff
5. QBs Matt Leinart or Jay Cutler
Tomorrow, we'll cover the Vikings' needs entering the draft this weekend.
Monday, April 24, 2006
Friday, April 21, 2006
Randomization 04/21/06 - Apparently it's the "Video Game Edition"
How do we go about getting a Viking on the cover again? Apparently, the announcement of the "cover boy" for Madden video games is now a big deal. On the same day I picked up Madden 06, they announced that Seattle RB Shaun Alexander will be gracing the cover for Madden 07.
(I've always been behind the times somewhat, and I've decided that it would be cool to have all the EA "06" games. I have NASCAR, FIFA, NHL, NCAA Football, and NCAA Baseball. I saw Madden yesterday at Sam's Club, and decided to pull the trigger. Haven't played it yet as of this writing, but I can't imagine that a Madden game would be anything less than great.)
With the jinx in full force last year (Donovan McNabb), and recent cover players Marshall Faulk, Daunte Culpepper, and Michael Vick all having sob stories to tell, it's wondrous to me that EA can get anyone on the cover. EA should try one year to see if the jinx can work the other way. Take a completely miserable excuse for a football player (Joey Harrington comes to mind) and put him on the cover - just to see what happens to his career. After all, a guy like Harrington can't get any worse, can he?
Since I brought it up...random video game notes. NCAA Baseball is awesome. One of the best things to happen to my video gaming experience is EA losing the rights to produce MLB-licensed games. Because of that, EA made the decision to make a college baseball game. It's got some holes (the "create a team" feature sucks, and there aren't nearly enough ballparks, nor is there enough detail in the "create a ballpark" feature), but EA did a good job. There's already some talk about an MVP 07: NCAA Baseball game, so I'm guessing sales are at least decent. If you haven't picked it up, and you like playing video game baseball, I highly recommend it.
I like FIFA 06, but I think it stinks that EA made a separate World Cup game. I guess I'll have to get that before the World Cup starts in June (Father's Day gift...hmm...). FIFA is fun because if you set the game speed high enough, you can get a full game in and it only takes about 15 minutes (I usually play a six-minute half). I took on the challenge of trying to build Norwich into an English club soccer power. You're pretty limited in the money you can spend in Manager mode, so it makes it pretty tough to get the players you want.
NCAA Football 06 is one of the best games I've ever played. Superb detail, fun features, and exciting gameplay. It took three seasons, but I just won a national championship with Army. It was fun, because it was exceptionally challenging. It would have been even more challenging if I hadn't created the perfect QB to run the spread-option offense. The defense still isn't that good most of the time, but it's fun to see how many more blue-chip recruits want to play for your once-moribound program when you start winning a little bit. I was losing recruits to crappy MAC schools in my first year, and recruiting after the national championship season was much easier.
NHL 06 is the best hockey game EA has produced in, literally, years. Like FIFA, the gameplay is fast enough that a full game can be played within 15-20 minutes. And the game is challenging enough (at least for me) in dynasty mode. About halfway through my first season, the Wild are fighting like dogs for a top-four spot in the West. Usually, the challenge for me is to make the game challenging without making it impossibly hard. That's not a problem for me in this edition. The difficulty is such that I've had some blowout wins and some blowout losses. And I like that goal horns in the different arenas are much more authentic than I remember them in previous years.
Even though I've had NASCAR 06 for some time, I haven't played it much. The career mode is interesting, as you have to work your way up the ladder, instead of starting as a Cup series driver. The gameplay is fun (hard to screw up car racing), and it's pretty realistic, with the exception that other drivers, in my view, are much more aggressive in this game than they are in the actual races. There is too much bumping going on in the game, to the point where you will never win much of anything unless you turn the damage settings down.
To confirm, I am actually going on 29 years old. I am married, and I do have a four-year-old son. And I am an avid video-game player. Ain't life great?
Weekend notes...The NFL Draft is a week away. Still no sign that anyone but Reggie Bush will be selected by anyone but Houston with the first pick. I expect the Saints to try very hard to trade down, and I think the Packers will end up with tOSU linebacker A.J. Hawk.
The NBA Playoffs start tomorrow. I'm not going to preview them with the same enthusiasm as I did the NHL, but I'm looking forward to seeing Detroit beat up on everyone in the East, and I'm looking forward to seeing LeBron James in the playoffs. The Clippers will be a nice story, and expect Kobe Bryant to make things very interesting in the Lakers/Phoenix series.
(I've always been behind the times somewhat, and I've decided that it would be cool to have all the EA "06" games. I have NASCAR, FIFA, NHL, NCAA Football, and NCAA Baseball. I saw Madden yesterday at Sam's Club, and decided to pull the trigger. Haven't played it yet as of this writing, but I can't imagine that a Madden game would be anything less than great.)
With the jinx in full force last year (Donovan McNabb), and recent cover players Marshall Faulk, Daunte Culpepper, and Michael Vick all having sob stories to tell, it's wondrous to me that EA can get anyone on the cover. EA should try one year to see if the jinx can work the other way. Take a completely miserable excuse for a football player (Joey Harrington comes to mind) and put him on the cover - just to see what happens to his career. After all, a guy like Harrington can't get any worse, can he?
Since I brought it up...random video game notes. NCAA Baseball is awesome. One of the best things to happen to my video gaming experience is EA losing the rights to produce MLB-licensed games. Because of that, EA made the decision to make a college baseball game. It's got some holes (the "create a team" feature sucks, and there aren't nearly enough ballparks, nor is there enough detail in the "create a ballpark" feature), but EA did a good job. There's already some talk about an MVP 07: NCAA Baseball game, so I'm guessing sales are at least decent. If you haven't picked it up, and you like playing video game baseball, I highly recommend it.
I like FIFA 06, but I think it stinks that EA made a separate World Cup game. I guess I'll have to get that before the World Cup starts in June (Father's Day gift...hmm...). FIFA is fun because if you set the game speed high enough, you can get a full game in and it only takes about 15 minutes (I usually play a six-minute half). I took on the challenge of trying to build Norwich into an English club soccer power. You're pretty limited in the money you can spend in Manager mode, so it makes it pretty tough to get the players you want.
NCAA Football 06 is one of the best games I've ever played. Superb detail, fun features, and exciting gameplay. It took three seasons, but I just won a national championship with Army. It was fun, because it was exceptionally challenging. It would have been even more challenging if I hadn't created the perfect QB to run the spread-option offense. The defense still isn't that good most of the time, but it's fun to see how many more blue-chip recruits want to play for your once-moribound program when you start winning a little bit. I was losing recruits to crappy MAC schools in my first year, and recruiting after the national championship season was much easier.
NHL 06 is the best hockey game EA has produced in, literally, years. Like FIFA, the gameplay is fast enough that a full game can be played within 15-20 minutes. And the game is challenging enough (at least for me) in dynasty mode. About halfway through my first season, the Wild are fighting like dogs for a top-four spot in the West. Usually, the challenge for me is to make the game challenging without making it impossibly hard. That's not a problem for me in this edition. The difficulty is such that I've had some blowout wins and some blowout losses. And I like that goal horns in the different arenas are much more authentic than I remember them in previous years.
Even though I've had NASCAR 06 for some time, I haven't played it much. The career mode is interesting, as you have to work your way up the ladder, instead of starting as a Cup series driver. The gameplay is fun (hard to screw up car racing), and it's pretty realistic, with the exception that other drivers, in my view, are much more aggressive in this game than they are in the actual races. There is too much bumping going on in the game, to the point where you will never win much of anything unless you turn the damage settings down.
To confirm, I am actually going on 29 years old. I am married, and I do have a four-year-old son. And I am an avid video-game player. Ain't life great?
Weekend notes...The NFL Draft is a week away. Still no sign that anyone but Reggie Bush will be selected by anyone but Houston with the first pick. I expect the Saints to try very hard to trade down, and I think the Packers will end up with tOSU linebacker A.J. Hawk.
The NBA Playoffs start tomorrow. I'm not going to preview them with the same enthusiasm as I did the NHL, but I'm looking forward to seeing Detroit beat up on everyone in the East, and I'm looking forward to seeing LeBron James in the playoffs. The Clippers will be a nice story, and expect Kobe Bryant to make things very interesting in the Lakers/Phoenix series.
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Hey, they're giving out the Stanley Cup again!! Western Conference Playoff Preview
Sadly, we have to talk about things like officiating. In every sport, it's the zebra in the room...pun intended.
This year, the officiating in the NHL has undergone a bit of an adjustment. The league has been adamant about opening the game back up after years of empty promises about obstruction crackdowns. New officiating head Steven Walkom got things off on the right foot early, making it clear that the obstruction, hooking, holding, etc. (heretofore referred to as "crap") was going to be called and that no letup on that crackdown would be tolerated.
Walkom also did something that officials hardly ever do in hockey or any other sport. He made it clear that he didn't care if his men had to call 15 penalties on one team and three on the other. He didn't want calls to "even up", and he wanted teams called for penalties they committed. It was rare because of the candor - Walkom was basically admitting that officials had spent years trying to even up the power play distribution in games, and he wanted it to stop (are you reading this, Greg Shepherd?).
That said, here comes the test. Now, we get to see how serious these officials are about cleaning up the crap in the game. Will they call 20 hooking penalties in a playoff game if they have to? Or will they let it all go as they used to? Obviously, the company line is that the crackdown will continue. We will have to wait and see starting Friday.
We've already previewed the East. Now, let's see who will make it out of the West.
8. Edmonton Oilers (41-28-13, 95 points)
The Oilers were beaten decisively in the Battle of Alberta, losing the season series to Calgary 5-3, and losing out to the Flames in the Northwest Division by eight points. The Oilers should be thanked, however, for sending The Canadian Scourge to the golf course early this year. I hear that Todd Bertuzzi got enough practice hacking during the season that he actually broke par yesterday. Congratulations, Todd.
Why the Oilers will go far: Edmonton has plenty of speed, and they can hit people, too. Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff both topped 70 points, and Sergei Samsonov was a nice addition at the trade deadline. Ryan Smyth developed into a top goal-scorer, and Jarrett Stoll had a nice season. Chris Pronger got a lot of money from the Oilers for this time of year. He scored 56 points this year and was a great presence on the power play (42 points). The Oilers gave up a first-round draft pick to bring in veteran goaltender Dwayne Roloson, and while the results were somewhat mixed early, Rolie played well down the stretch. With Edmonton's depth and athleticism, they have to hope they can wear down the older Red Wings in the first round.
Why the Oilers will go away: This isn't so much about the Oil. Edmonton can score, and they can defend. While Roloson got a little better, he was only 8-7 with a 2.42 GAA in Edmonton, and that's not going to strike fear in the Red Wings. Edmonton's solid on special teams (8th on the power play, 12th on the penalty kill), but they need to play a more disciplined style against Detroit. The Wings are just too good on the power play for the Oilers to be constantly killing off penalties. Edmonton is a solid eighth seed, but they don't match up well with the Wings in a first-round series because they don't have the defense and goaltending to sufficiently slow the Wings down.
Bottom line: Most people know what I think of the Red Wings. And most people know what I think of Edmonton. So this hurts. I don't see Edmonton being terribly competitive in this series, unless Roloson invokes memories of his play during Minnesota's 2003 playoff run while Detroit experiences a goaltending meltdown. Detroit is too strong for Edmonton, and they'll finish off the Oil in five games.
7. Colorado Avalanche (43-30-9, 95 points)
Even with some veterans who struggled early, and season-long problems in goal, the Avalanche are back in the playoffs. They are, however, a pretty heavy underdog in their opening-round series against Dallas. The Avalanche could be a tough out if they get goaltending, because you know their forwards can score, and they won't back down from a hard-hitting game.
That said, "if they get goaltending" is a pretty big IF for Colorado right now.
Why the Avalanche will go far: Jose Theodore may have fallen off a bit this year, but he's done this before, and he's been able to rebound and produce in the playoffs. If he doesn't, the Avs also have Peter Budaj, and who would have thought Budaj could do what he did in the Olympics? Joe Sakic can still score with the best of them, and Alex Tanguay and Milan Hejduk are a nice supporting cast. Andrew Brunette, a veteran free agent who was let go by Minnesota, produced nearly 70 points. Rob Blake and John-Michael Liles both put up some nice offensive numbers, and Blake rebounded from a rough start to play well defensively after the Olympics.
Why the Avalanche will go away: Theodore and Budaj are inconsistent. The Avalanche aren't particularly strong up front outside of Sakic, Tanguay, and Hejduk. As long as young star Marek Svatos is out, the Avs will suffer up front. Also missing in round one will be Steve Konowalchuk, who could add some experience to the lineup if he were healthy. The defensive corps is very shaky, and that doesn't bode well for the Avs if the goaltending can't come through.
Bottom line: Dallas has a balanced, hard-working team, and they have an elite goaltender in Marty Turco. The Stars present matchup nightmares, especially in goal, for the Avalanche, who haven't yet come close to replacing Patrick Roy. If Theodore can step up, the Avs might be able to hang around for seven games, and they might spring the upset. But the more realistic scenario has Colorado bowing out to Dallas in five games.
6. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (43-27-12, 98 points)
If only the season had started after the Olympics. If that were the case, the Ducks could easily find themselves in the top four of the West. And that way, they'd be able to have home-ice advantage. One of the best moves the Ducks made looked strange at the time. They traded Sergei Fedorov to Columbus, and they did it after Fedorov had played just five games. While the Ducks didn't get much in return, they did open the door for some of their younger players to take over.
And did they ever take over.
Why the Ducks will go far: While free-agent acquisition Teemu Selanne was good for 40 goals and 90 points, the story was the youth in Anaheim. Joffrey Lupul scored 28 goals. Andy McDonald was good for 34 goals and 85 points. Former Ferris State hack Chris Kunitz picked up 41 points. And while the youngsters were learning, steady veteran defenseman Scott Niedermayer proved himself worth every penny the Ducks paid him to sign. He picked up 50 assists and 63 points, and Niedermayer scored 36 points on the power play this season for Anaheim. The Ducks went 11-4-1 in March, and started 4-1 in April, so they really made their playoff charge after the Olympic break.
Why the Ducks will go away: It's not a deal-breaker, but the Ducks did lose three of their last four. While Jean-Sebastien Giguere has played better since the break, the Ducks' netminder doesn't match up well with the Flames in the first round, and Giguere will have a hard time matching what Miikka Kiprusoff can do in goal. Niedermayer is great, but the rest of Anaheim's defense is leaky and not playoff-hardened. Niedermayer will have to log some serious minutes, which he can do, but it won't be easy for him to hold up this ship against the hard, intense forecheck of Calgary.
Bottom line: The Anaheim story is a nice one. They rallied and stormed into the playoffs after a lackluster first 45 games. But they don't match up well with the Flames, and Calgary will end Anaheim's season in six games.
5. Nashville Predators (49-25-8, 106 points)
When this franchise started up, everyone - even the locals - seemed to be skeptical. And those folks got even more skeptical when the Predators struggled early in their history. Before the lockout that cancelled the 2004-2005 season, we started to sense some life in Nashville. The Preds made the playoffs, and they were very competitive before losing a six-game series to Detroit. After the lockout, the Predators almost immediately showed their willingness to compete, as they signed free-agent star Paul Kariya. That move came after they traded for former Blackhawk Steve Sullivan during their run to the playoffs in 2003-2004 and retained Sullivan in free agency.
Now, the Predators have veteran leadership in Sullivan and Kariya, and they have complimented them with some solid young talent. Unfortunately for Nashville, their playoff chances were dealt a huge blow last week, when it was learned that starting goaltender Tomas Vokoun would miss the postseason with blood clot issues. Now, the fourth-seeded Predators have gone from being a favorite to being an underdog, home ice notwithstanding.
Why the Predators will go far: Sullivan and Kariya are an impressive one-two punch. 62 goals and 153 points combined, with 80 of those points coming on the power play. Martin Erat and Scott Hartnell are nice complimentary players, and the Predators have some good defensemen with guys like Kimmo Timonen and Marek Zidlicky. The team has faith in backup goalie Chris Mason, whose role certainly became more significant with the announcement about Vokoun.
Why the Predators will go away: Sullivan and Zidlicky are banged up, and neither may be 100 percent for the playoffs. The Vokoun situation is a bad one for Nashville. The Predators rode Vokoun all season for a reason. They may say they have faith in Mason, and they may really have faith in Mason, but the Predators know this is a problem. They're not as deep, and they're not playing as well as first-round opponent San Jose, whose hard-checking forwards could present a matchup issue for Nashville's top line.
Bottom line: Nashville would be a great story if they could make a run, but that is unlikely. Sullivan and Zidlicky are question marks, and no one knows what Mason is going to do. San Jose won't put Nashville away easily, but the Sharks will eliminate the Predators in six games.
4. San Jose Sharks (44-27-11, 99 points)
When San Jose started making their run towards the playoffs, they were fighting with the likes of Minnesota, Edmonton, and Colorado for positioning. While the Wild fell off the map, the Sharks got hot and blew past everyone at the bottom of the West playoff race. San Jose ended up fifth thanks to a 16-4-2 run since the trade deadline. Included in that is an eight-game winning streak that was only broken up by a loss to Los Angeles in a meaningless game at the end of the regular season.
Why the Sharks will go far: They're hot, and their top players are hitting on all cylinders. Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo combined for 76 goals and 185 points, as Thornton went from Boston outcast to San Jose superstar. Cheechoo doubled his previous single-season high with 56 goals this season. Patrick Marleau also topped 80 points, and Nils Eckman scored 20+ goals while also posting a +20 on the season. The Sharks have a great combination of goaltenders with Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskela. Toskela is the likely starter, as he played very well late in the season when Nabokov struggled a bit.
Why the Sharks will go away: They're a one-line team. While Thornton and Cheechoo are playing at another level right now, San Jose is extremely susceptible to a team that can slow down that top line. There's no way to say that the second or third lines are good enough to beat a team that shuts down that top line. The Sharks aren't terrible defensively, but they're not outstanding, either. It's a group that lacks a lot of experience, but they have some good, physical players on the blue line.
Bottom line: San Jose is good enough to get by Nashville, who has been decimated by injuries and the loss of their starting goaltender due to a blood problem. The Sharks will meet their match in the second round, though, as Detroit will knock them out in six games.
3. Dallas Stars (53-23-6, 112 points)
Like Colorado (Dallas' first-round opponent), the Stars weren't expected to be here. The older and hideously expensive Stars were going to lose a few top players because of the salary cap, and the Stars weren't going to have the young bodies ready to take charge and keep the team on top.
Oops.
Dallas won 53 games, ran away with the Pacific Division, and were the best team in the West not named "Detroit" this season. Now, they have to be considered a major threat in the West playoffs, because while they have adjusted well to the new-age NHL, the Stars still play quality defense and they have one of the best goaltenders in the world in Marty Turco.
Why the Stars will go far: The Stars have plenty of reasons to be confident. Jere Lehtinen, best known as a defensive forward, has 33 goals (!). Mike Modano has 77 points and is +23. Sergei Zubov is the top-scoring defenseman with 71 points. Youngsters Jussi Jokinen and Phillippe Boucher have held their own, though one has to wonder how well Jokinen will perform in the playoffs, where there won't be any shootouts. The Stars have a stud in goal in Turco, who may have slipped a bit (.898 save percentage suggests it's possible), but is still equal parts fundamentally sound and scintillating.
Why the Stars will go away: The Stars' penalty kill was pretty good, but the power play wasn't. It ranked 20th in the NHL this season. They still rely on their defense and Turco to win games, as they just don't score a ton of goals. They are vulnerable to hard-charging, athletic teams who have deep lines and tough skill players. Dallas simply isn't as potentially explosive offensively as other West contenders Detroit and Calgary, and both teams play as well defensively as Dallas does.
Bottom line: The Stars are good enough to move past Colorado in the first round, and they could make it look easy. However, the conference semifinals bring a likely matchup with Calgary, and the Flames will oust the Stars in one of the best series of the playoffs.
2. Detroit Red Wings (58-16-8, 124 points)
To a lesser extent than Dallas and Colorado, there were serious questions being asked about the ability of the Red Wings to compete with the top teams in the NHL. The answer? Emphatic.
There isn't much that Detroit doesn't do well, and many people seem to think that the best hope for everyone else is that the Wings get worn down on their way to the Finals.
Why the Wings will go far: Let's see. Top power play. Third-best penalty kill. Top road record in the NHL. Can score in bunches. Can defend against anyone. What doesn't Detroit do well? Captain Steve Yzerman had an 11-game point streak down the stretch. The Wings have gotten at least one point in 20 straight games between March 9 and April 17. Detroit's only regulation loss since March 7 came in the season finale against Nashville, a meaningless game. Seven Detroit players (including ageless defenseman Chris Chelios) are +20 or better (!). Four Detroit players (Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Brendan Shanahan, Niklas Lidstrom) are at 80 or more points. Eight Detroit players scored 20 or more goals. Oh, and Manny Legace posted a save percentage of .915 while winning 37 games. They're not bad.
Why the Wings will go away: Excuse any typos. I'm busy reaching for the straws over there. OK. I got my mitts on a few of these. The Wings still aren't getting any younger. After Calgary wore them down two years ago, the possibility still exists that Detroit could be worn down by younger, more physical teams with quality goaltending. Unfortunately for the Wings, there are at least two other teams in the West (Calgary, Dallas) that fit that mold, and one other team (San Jose) that thinks they fit that mold. Finally, goaltending will be a question mark for this team until Manny Legace gets to touch the Cup.
Bottom line: For Detroit, it's all about staying the course and taking advantage of opportunities. The Wings probably can't afford to allow early-round series to be extended, as it's not a cakewalk for this team to move on to the Finals. Detroit skates past Edmonton, has a harder time with San Jose, and then the Wings fall in a seven-game West final series to...
1. Calgary Flames (46-25-11, 103 points)
After the improbable run of 2004, coach/GM Darryl Sutter decided not to stand pat post-lockout. The Flames brought in Tony Amonte, Daymond Langkow, and Roman Hamrlik. Sutter also traded for Kristian Huselius during the season. Results? The Flames won the tight Northwest Division race, and Calgary appears primed for another long playoff run.
The red-clad, rabid fans of Calgary have fastened their seat belts. Here we go.
Why the Flames will go far: They have it all. Jarome Iginla scored 35 goals and was the offensive catalyst. Langkow fit in perfectly, posting almost 60 points. Amonte was a non-factor for much of the season, but he managed to contribute a 40-point season and he played well down the stretch. Besides star goaltender Kiprusoff, who tied for the league lead in wins and posted a .923 save percentage, the Flames are very good on defense. Rookie Dion Phaneuf doesn't play like a rookie, and Robyn Regehr, Jordan Leopold, Andrew Ference, and Hamrlik have all been strong on the blue line. With how strong the Flames' penalty kill is, you're probably better off just declining penalties. There might not be a harder-working team in the league.
Why the Flames will go away: The Flames aren't deep offensively. If a team can shut down Iginla (a pretty big "if"), then they're probably going to shut down the Flames. They don't have a lot of speed outside of Iginla, though their grit usually makes up for it. Can this team handle expectations? They didn't have any in 2004, and now they're considered one of the favorites in the NHL. If the weight becomes too much, the Flames may be prone for an upset.
Bottom line: The top three here is very good. But the Flames' defense, goaltending, and work ethic are superior, and the Flames will oust Anaheim, Dallas, and Detroit on their way to play the Buffalo Sabres in the Stanley Cup Finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND SCHEDULE (courtesy NHL.com)
Detroit vs Edmonton
Game 1: Friday at Detroit, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 2: Sunday at Detroit, 1pm ET (NBC, CBC)
Game 3: Tuesday at Edmonton, 10pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 4: April 27 at Edmonton, 9:30pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 5: April 29 at Detroit, 3pm ET (NBC, CBC)
Game 6: May 1 at Edmonton, TBA (OLN, CBC)
Game 7: May 3 at Detroit, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Dallas vs Colorado
Game 1: Saturday at Dallas, 3pm ET (NBC)
Game 2: Monday at Dallas, 9pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 3: Wednesday at Colorado, 9:30pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 4: April 28 at Colorado, 10pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 5: April 30 at Dallas, 2pm ET (NBC)
Game 6: May 2 at Colorado, TBA (OLN, TSN)
Game 7: May 4 at Dallas, TBA (OLN, TSN)
Calgary vs Anaheim
Game 1: Friday at Calgary, 10pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 2: Sunday at Calgary, 9pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 3: Tuesday at Anaheim, 10pm ET (CBC)
Game 4: April 27 at Anaheim, 10pm ET (CBC)
Game 5: April 29 at Calgary, 10pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 6: May 1 at Anaheim, TBA (OLN, CBC)
Game 7: May 3 at Calgary, TBA (OLN, CBC)
Nashville vs San Jose
Game 1: Friday at Nashville, 8pm ET (TSN)
Game 2: Sunday at Nashville, 1pm ET (NBC, TSN)
Game 3: Tuesday at San Jose, 10:30pm ET (TSN)
Game 4: April 27 at San Jose, 10:30pm ET (TSN)
Game 5: April 30 at Nashville, 8:30pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 6: May 2 at San Jose, 10:30pm (TBA)
Game 7: May 4 at Nashville, TBA (TBA)
This year, the officiating in the NHL has undergone a bit of an adjustment. The league has been adamant about opening the game back up after years of empty promises about obstruction crackdowns. New officiating head Steven Walkom got things off on the right foot early, making it clear that the obstruction, hooking, holding, etc. (heretofore referred to as "crap") was going to be called and that no letup on that crackdown would be tolerated.
Walkom also did something that officials hardly ever do in hockey or any other sport. He made it clear that he didn't care if his men had to call 15 penalties on one team and three on the other. He didn't want calls to "even up", and he wanted teams called for penalties they committed. It was rare because of the candor - Walkom was basically admitting that officials had spent years trying to even up the power play distribution in games, and he wanted it to stop (are you reading this, Greg Shepherd?).
That said, here comes the test. Now, we get to see how serious these officials are about cleaning up the crap in the game. Will they call 20 hooking penalties in a playoff game if they have to? Or will they let it all go as they used to? Obviously, the company line is that the crackdown will continue. We will have to wait and see starting Friday.
We've already previewed the East. Now, let's see who will make it out of the West.
8. Edmonton Oilers (41-28-13, 95 points)
The Oilers were beaten decisively in the Battle of Alberta, losing the season series to Calgary 5-3, and losing out to the Flames in the Northwest Division by eight points. The Oilers should be thanked, however, for sending The Canadian Scourge to the golf course early this year. I hear that Todd Bertuzzi got enough practice hacking during the season that he actually broke par yesterday. Congratulations, Todd.
Why the Oilers will go far: Edmonton has plenty of speed, and they can hit people, too. Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff both topped 70 points, and Sergei Samsonov was a nice addition at the trade deadline. Ryan Smyth developed into a top goal-scorer, and Jarrett Stoll had a nice season. Chris Pronger got a lot of money from the Oilers for this time of year. He scored 56 points this year and was a great presence on the power play (42 points). The Oilers gave up a first-round draft pick to bring in veteran goaltender Dwayne Roloson, and while the results were somewhat mixed early, Rolie played well down the stretch. With Edmonton's depth and athleticism, they have to hope they can wear down the older Red Wings in the first round.
Why the Oilers will go away: This isn't so much about the Oil. Edmonton can score, and they can defend. While Roloson got a little better, he was only 8-7 with a 2.42 GAA in Edmonton, and that's not going to strike fear in the Red Wings. Edmonton's solid on special teams (8th on the power play, 12th on the penalty kill), but they need to play a more disciplined style against Detroit. The Wings are just too good on the power play for the Oilers to be constantly killing off penalties. Edmonton is a solid eighth seed, but they don't match up well with the Wings in a first-round series because they don't have the defense and goaltending to sufficiently slow the Wings down.
Bottom line: Most people know what I think of the Red Wings. And most people know what I think of Edmonton. So this hurts. I don't see Edmonton being terribly competitive in this series, unless Roloson invokes memories of his play during Minnesota's 2003 playoff run while Detroit experiences a goaltending meltdown. Detroit is too strong for Edmonton, and they'll finish off the Oil in five games.
7. Colorado Avalanche (43-30-9, 95 points)
Even with some veterans who struggled early, and season-long problems in goal, the Avalanche are back in the playoffs. They are, however, a pretty heavy underdog in their opening-round series against Dallas. The Avalanche could be a tough out if they get goaltending, because you know their forwards can score, and they won't back down from a hard-hitting game.
That said, "if they get goaltending" is a pretty big IF for Colorado right now.
Why the Avalanche will go far: Jose Theodore may have fallen off a bit this year, but he's done this before, and he's been able to rebound and produce in the playoffs. If he doesn't, the Avs also have Peter Budaj, and who would have thought Budaj could do what he did in the Olympics? Joe Sakic can still score with the best of them, and Alex Tanguay and Milan Hejduk are a nice supporting cast. Andrew Brunette, a veteran free agent who was let go by Minnesota, produced nearly 70 points. Rob Blake and John-Michael Liles both put up some nice offensive numbers, and Blake rebounded from a rough start to play well defensively after the Olympics.
Why the Avalanche will go away: Theodore and Budaj are inconsistent. The Avalanche aren't particularly strong up front outside of Sakic, Tanguay, and Hejduk. As long as young star Marek Svatos is out, the Avs will suffer up front. Also missing in round one will be Steve Konowalchuk, who could add some experience to the lineup if he were healthy. The defensive corps is very shaky, and that doesn't bode well for the Avs if the goaltending can't come through.
Bottom line: Dallas has a balanced, hard-working team, and they have an elite goaltender in Marty Turco. The Stars present matchup nightmares, especially in goal, for the Avalanche, who haven't yet come close to replacing Patrick Roy. If Theodore can step up, the Avs might be able to hang around for seven games, and they might spring the upset. But the more realistic scenario has Colorado bowing out to Dallas in five games.
6. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (43-27-12, 98 points)
If only the season had started after the Olympics. If that were the case, the Ducks could easily find themselves in the top four of the West. And that way, they'd be able to have home-ice advantage. One of the best moves the Ducks made looked strange at the time. They traded Sergei Fedorov to Columbus, and they did it after Fedorov had played just five games. While the Ducks didn't get much in return, they did open the door for some of their younger players to take over.
And did they ever take over.
Why the Ducks will go far: While free-agent acquisition Teemu Selanne was good for 40 goals and 90 points, the story was the youth in Anaheim. Joffrey Lupul scored 28 goals. Andy McDonald was good for 34 goals and 85 points. Former Ferris State hack Chris Kunitz picked up 41 points. And while the youngsters were learning, steady veteran defenseman Scott Niedermayer proved himself worth every penny the Ducks paid him to sign. He picked up 50 assists and 63 points, and Niedermayer scored 36 points on the power play this season for Anaheim. The Ducks went 11-4-1 in March, and started 4-1 in April, so they really made their playoff charge after the Olympic break.
Why the Ducks will go away: It's not a deal-breaker, but the Ducks did lose three of their last four. While Jean-Sebastien Giguere has played better since the break, the Ducks' netminder doesn't match up well with the Flames in the first round, and Giguere will have a hard time matching what Miikka Kiprusoff can do in goal. Niedermayer is great, but the rest of Anaheim's defense is leaky and not playoff-hardened. Niedermayer will have to log some serious minutes, which he can do, but it won't be easy for him to hold up this ship against the hard, intense forecheck of Calgary.
Bottom line: The Anaheim story is a nice one. They rallied and stormed into the playoffs after a lackluster first 45 games. But they don't match up well with the Flames, and Calgary will end Anaheim's season in six games.
5. Nashville Predators (49-25-8, 106 points)
When this franchise started up, everyone - even the locals - seemed to be skeptical. And those folks got even more skeptical when the Predators struggled early in their history. Before the lockout that cancelled the 2004-2005 season, we started to sense some life in Nashville. The Preds made the playoffs, and they were very competitive before losing a six-game series to Detroit. After the lockout, the Predators almost immediately showed their willingness to compete, as they signed free-agent star Paul Kariya. That move came after they traded for former Blackhawk Steve Sullivan during their run to the playoffs in 2003-2004 and retained Sullivan in free agency.
Now, the Predators have veteran leadership in Sullivan and Kariya, and they have complimented them with some solid young talent. Unfortunately for Nashville, their playoff chances were dealt a huge blow last week, when it was learned that starting goaltender Tomas Vokoun would miss the postseason with blood clot issues. Now, the fourth-seeded Predators have gone from being a favorite to being an underdog, home ice notwithstanding.
Why the Predators will go far: Sullivan and Kariya are an impressive one-two punch. 62 goals and 153 points combined, with 80 of those points coming on the power play. Martin Erat and Scott Hartnell are nice complimentary players, and the Predators have some good defensemen with guys like Kimmo Timonen and Marek Zidlicky. The team has faith in backup goalie Chris Mason, whose role certainly became more significant with the announcement about Vokoun.
Why the Predators will go away: Sullivan and Zidlicky are banged up, and neither may be 100 percent for the playoffs. The Vokoun situation is a bad one for Nashville. The Predators rode Vokoun all season for a reason. They may say they have faith in Mason, and they may really have faith in Mason, but the Predators know this is a problem. They're not as deep, and they're not playing as well as first-round opponent San Jose, whose hard-checking forwards could present a matchup issue for Nashville's top line.
Bottom line: Nashville would be a great story if they could make a run, but that is unlikely. Sullivan and Zidlicky are question marks, and no one knows what Mason is going to do. San Jose won't put Nashville away easily, but the Sharks will eliminate the Predators in six games.
4. San Jose Sharks (44-27-11, 99 points)
When San Jose started making their run towards the playoffs, they were fighting with the likes of Minnesota, Edmonton, and Colorado for positioning. While the Wild fell off the map, the Sharks got hot and blew past everyone at the bottom of the West playoff race. San Jose ended up fifth thanks to a 16-4-2 run since the trade deadline. Included in that is an eight-game winning streak that was only broken up by a loss to Los Angeles in a meaningless game at the end of the regular season.
Why the Sharks will go far: They're hot, and their top players are hitting on all cylinders. Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo combined for 76 goals and 185 points, as Thornton went from Boston outcast to San Jose superstar. Cheechoo doubled his previous single-season high with 56 goals this season. Patrick Marleau also topped 80 points, and Nils Eckman scored 20+ goals while also posting a +20 on the season. The Sharks have a great combination of goaltenders with Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskela. Toskela is the likely starter, as he played very well late in the season when Nabokov struggled a bit.
Why the Sharks will go away: They're a one-line team. While Thornton and Cheechoo are playing at another level right now, San Jose is extremely susceptible to a team that can slow down that top line. There's no way to say that the second or third lines are good enough to beat a team that shuts down that top line. The Sharks aren't terrible defensively, but they're not outstanding, either. It's a group that lacks a lot of experience, but they have some good, physical players on the blue line.
Bottom line: San Jose is good enough to get by Nashville, who has been decimated by injuries and the loss of their starting goaltender due to a blood problem. The Sharks will meet their match in the second round, though, as Detroit will knock them out in six games.
3. Dallas Stars (53-23-6, 112 points)
Like Colorado (Dallas' first-round opponent), the Stars weren't expected to be here. The older and hideously expensive Stars were going to lose a few top players because of the salary cap, and the Stars weren't going to have the young bodies ready to take charge and keep the team on top.
Oops.
Dallas won 53 games, ran away with the Pacific Division, and were the best team in the West not named "Detroit" this season. Now, they have to be considered a major threat in the West playoffs, because while they have adjusted well to the new-age NHL, the Stars still play quality defense and they have one of the best goaltenders in the world in Marty Turco.
Why the Stars will go far: The Stars have plenty of reasons to be confident. Jere Lehtinen, best known as a defensive forward, has 33 goals (!). Mike Modano has 77 points and is +23. Sergei Zubov is the top-scoring defenseman with 71 points. Youngsters Jussi Jokinen and Phillippe Boucher have held their own, though one has to wonder how well Jokinen will perform in the playoffs, where there won't be any shootouts. The Stars have a stud in goal in Turco, who may have slipped a bit (.898 save percentage suggests it's possible), but is still equal parts fundamentally sound and scintillating.
Why the Stars will go away: The Stars' penalty kill was pretty good, but the power play wasn't. It ranked 20th in the NHL this season. They still rely on their defense and Turco to win games, as they just don't score a ton of goals. They are vulnerable to hard-charging, athletic teams who have deep lines and tough skill players. Dallas simply isn't as potentially explosive offensively as other West contenders Detroit and Calgary, and both teams play as well defensively as Dallas does.
Bottom line: The Stars are good enough to move past Colorado in the first round, and they could make it look easy. However, the conference semifinals bring a likely matchup with Calgary, and the Flames will oust the Stars in one of the best series of the playoffs.
2. Detroit Red Wings (58-16-8, 124 points)
To a lesser extent than Dallas and Colorado, there were serious questions being asked about the ability of the Red Wings to compete with the top teams in the NHL. The answer? Emphatic.
There isn't much that Detroit doesn't do well, and many people seem to think that the best hope for everyone else is that the Wings get worn down on their way to the Finals.
Why the Wings will go far: Let's see. Top power play. Third-best penalty kill. Top road record in the NHL. Can score in bunches. Can defend against anyone. What doesn't Detroit do well? Captain Steve Yzerman had an 11-game point streak down the stretch. The Wings have gotten at least one point in 20 straight games between March 9 and April 17. Detroit's only regulation loss since March 7 came in the season finale against Nashville, a meaningless game. Seven Detroit players (including ageless defenseman Chris Chelios) are +20 or better (!). Four Detroit players (Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Brendan Shanahan, Niklas Lidstrom) are at 80 or more points. Eight Detroit players scored 20 or more goals. Oh, and Manny Legace posted a save percentage of .915 while winning 37 games. They're not bad.
Why the Wings will go away: Excuse any typos. I'm busy reaching for the straws over there. OK. I got my mitts on a few of these. The Wings still aren't getting any younger. After Calgary wore them down two years ago, the possibility still exists that Detroit could be worn down by younger, more physical teams with quality goaltending. Unfortunately for the Wings, there are at least two other teams in the West (Calgary, Dallas) that fit that mold, and one other team (San Jose) that thinks they fit that mold. Finally, goaltending will be a question mark for this team until Manny Legace gets to touch the Cup.
Bottom line: For Detroit, it's all about staying the course and taking advantage of opportunities. The Wings probably can't afford to allow early-round series to be extended, as it's not a cakewalk for this team to move on to the Finals. Detroit skates past Edmonton, has a harder time with San Jose, and then the Wings fall in a seven-game West final series to...
1. Calgary Flames (46-25-11, 103 points)
After the improbable run of 2004, coach/GM Darryl Sutter decided not to stand pat post-lockout. The Flames brought in Tony Amonte, Daymond Langkow, and Roman Hamrlik. Sutter also traded for Kristian Huselius during the season. Results? The Flames won the tight Northwest Division race, and Calgary appears primed for another long playoff run.
The red-clad, rabid fans of Calgary have fastened their seat belts. Here we go.
Why the Flames will go far: They have it all. Jarome Iginla scored 35 goals and was the offensive catalyst. Langkow fit in perfectly, posting almost 60 points. Amonte was a non-factor for much of the season, but he managed to contribute a 40-point season and he played well down the stretch. Besides star goaltender Kiprusoff, who tied for the league lead in wins and posted a .923 save percentage, the Flames are very good on defense. Rookie Dion Phaneuf doesn't play like a rookie, and Robyn Regehr, Jordan Leopold, Andrew Ference, and Hamrlik have all been strong on the blue line. With how strong the Flames' penalty kill is, you're probably better off just declining penalties. There might not be a harder-working team in the league.
Why the Flames will go away: The Flames aren't deep offensively. If a team can shut down Iginla (a pretty big "if"), then they're probably going to shut down the Flames. They don't have a lot of speed outside of Iginla, though their grit usually makes up for it. Can this team handle expectations? They didn't have any in 2004, and now they're considered one of the favorites in the NHL. If the weight becomes too much, the Flames may be prone for an upset.
Bottom line: The top three here is very good. But the Flames' defense, goaltending, and work ethic are superior, and the Flames will oust Anaheim, Dallas, and Detroit on their way to play the Buffalo Sabres in the Stanley Cup Finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND SCHEDULE (courtesy NHL.com)
Detroit vs Edmonton
Game 1: Friday at Detroit, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 2: Sunday at Detroit, 1pm ET (NBC, CBC)
Game 3: Tuesday at Edmonton, 10pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 4: April 27 at Edmonton, 9:30pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 5: April 29 at Detroit, 3pm ET (NBC, CBC)
Game 6: May 1 at Edmonton, TBA (OLN, CBC)
Game 7: May 3 at Detroit, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Dallas vs Colorado
Game 1: Saturday at Dallas, 3pm ET (NBC)
Game 2: Monday at Dallas, 9pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 3: Wednesday at Colorado, 9:30pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 4: April 28 at Colorado, 10pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 5: April 30 at Dallas, 2pm ET (NBC)
Game 6: May 2 at Colorado, TBA (OLN, TSN)
Game 7: May 4 at Dallas, TBA (OLN, TSN)
Calgary vs Anaheim
Game 1: Friday at Calgary, 10pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 2: Sunday at Calgary, 9pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 3: Tuesday at Anaheim, 10pm ET (CBC)
Game 4: April 27 at Anaheim, 10pm ET (CBC)
Game 5: April 29 at Calgary, 10pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 6: May 1 at Anaheim, TBA (OLN, CBC)
Game 7: May 3 at Calgary, TBA (OLN, CBC)
Nashville vs San Jose
Game 1: Friday at Nashville, 8pm ET (TSN)
Game 2: Sunday at Nashville, 1pm ET (NBC, TSN)
Game 3: Tuesday at San Jose, 10:30pm ET (TSN)
Game 4: April 27 at San Jose, 10:30pm ET (TSN)
Game 5: April 30 at Nashville, 8:30pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 6: May 2 at San Jose, 10:30pm (TBA)
Game 7: May 4 at Nashville, TBA (TBA)
Hey, they're giving out the Stanley Cup again!! Eastern Conference Playoff Preview
The NHL season ended last night, and while the Western Conference (which we'll get to at a different time) is littered with the usual suspects and little new blood, the Eastern Conference got turned all sorts of inside-out this year.
The season was entertaining. Scoring was up. Tempo was up. It turned back into, for the most part, a young man's game, with two rookies topping 100 points (one of them, Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby, became the youngest ever to score 100 points). Attendance was up, even in former NHL outposts like South Florida, Carolina, and Atlanta, where fans seemed to truly enjoy the up-tempo nature of the "new NHL". 18 of the NHL's 30 teams drew average crowds better than 90 percent of their arena capacity. 10 of those teams averaged either a sellout or an overflow crowd every night. Leaguewide attendance could end up being a record. We could find out that information from the NHL sometime today.
The shootout, which I was against at first, has been an absolute success. The players embraced it, with players on the Atlanta Thrashers even wearing their helmets backwards (like a rally cap in baseball) during their team's shootouts. Fans loved it. Do you think any arena around the league emptied before a shootout? And while I still don't like the idea of playoff spots being decided by something so gimmicky, we'd all better get used to it. There's no chance, at this point, that the shootout is going away. It went too well for the league to ditch it now.
Let's count down the eight playoff contenders in the East. The postseason starts Friday. When I post the West preview, we'll talk about one of the biggest playoff storylines this spring: officiating.
8. Montreal Canadiens (42-31-9, 93 points)
The Canadiens got everyone's attention by winning ten of twelve games on their way to the playoffs. However, Montreal had to back into the postseason after losing their last two home games, including blowing a 3-0 lead in their final game and losing to New Jersey. The Habs have quality goaltending, but can they play enough defense to spring an opening-round upset?
Why the Canadiens will go far: For Montreal, one of the major keys has been the power play. In the playoffs, every special-teams opportunity is important, and it's nice to have the fifth-ranked power play in the NHL on your side. Alexei Kovalev is absolutely explosive, and Michael Ryder had himself a nice 30-goal season. The Canadiens have strong goaltending, with Cristobal Huet leading the way with his .930 save percentage. The team hopes that, if Huet falters, David Aebischer will benefit from a change of scenery and play well for them after struggling in Colorado.
Why the Canadiens will go away: Blowing a 3-0 lead on home ice can never be acceptable, and in the case of the Montreal-Jersey game Tuesday night, it exposed the major weakness of the Canadiens: Defense. The Habs just don't play consistently well in their own zone, and they give up a lot of shots and scoring chances as a result. Huet and Aebischer are prone to slumps, and the offense doesn't have enough support for Kovalev. Saku Koivu has been slumping for some time, and the Habs aren't particularly deep up front.
Bottom line: The Canadiens are game, but they are overrun by Carolina's skill and depth in the first round. Montreal loses in six games.
7. Tampa Bay Lightning (43-33-6, 92 points)
The defending Cup champions are the eighth seed in this year's tournament. Tampa had some issues in goal this year, and the play up front was often inconsistent. With the run this team had in 2004, no one questions their ability to put it all back together in the playoffs this year. But it seems like too much to ask for this team to upend a team that they failed to beat in four tries during the regular season.
Why the Lightning will go far: I'm not a fan of using "experience" as an argument, but it's hard to argue against the idea that the Lightning will benefit at least a little bit from their status as the defending champion. And they still have much of that cast intact. Defensemen Dan Boyle, Pavel Kubina, and Darryl Sydor can play. And we all know the Lightning can score with the best of them, led by Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, and Ruslan Fedotenko.
Why the Lightning will go away: Goaltending. Sean Burke and John Grahame both showed flashes of solid play this season, but neither was nearly consistent enough to earn the job on a regular basis. The defense also had issues this season, allowing too many quality scoring chances in front of what was largely shaky goaltending. The Lightning were off-and-on all season, and now they have to hope that they can "flip the switch" in time for the second season. It's a lot to ask of anyone, even a reigning Stanley Cup champion.
Bottom line: The Lightning play better in their own zone, but a lack of timely scoring and spotty goaltending conspire to doom them in a five-game run against top-seeded Ottawa.
6. New York Rangers (44-26-12, 100 points)
It was simple for the Rangers with five games left. All they needed was one win. One.
They got none.
The Rangers ended up doing the impossible. They blew an insurmountable lead and lost the division title to New Jersey. In the process, the Rangers, on the last night of the season, fell from the third seed to the sixth seed.
Why the Rangers will go far: Henrik Lundqvist is one of the top goaltenders in the league. He sat out a few games down the stretch to rest a hip problem, but he's allegedly okay now. While the NHL may have changed a little bit, one thing hasn't changed. Goaltending will be huge in the playoffs. The Rangers have the goaltending to carry them on a long run, and they have some depth. Guys like Petr Prucha, Petr Sykora, and Jason Ward are solid third- and fourth-line players, and Sykora doesn't lack in experience. With a top-line scorer like Jaromir Jagr on the first line, the Rangers can certainly score goals. Jagr may have had his best season this year. The Rangers are good on special teams.
Why the Rangers will go away: They didn't play well down the stretch, and the Rangers are matched up with an opponent (New Jersey) who is on an 11-game winning streak, including a four-goal rally to win their season finale and clinch the Atlantic Division. The Rangers need to solidify their defensive play, as was evidenced by Ottawa's five-goal performance at the Garden on Tuesday night. The Rangers showed a ton of promise throughout the season, and now they need to cash in on it, and do it as the underdog.
Bottom line: The Rangers have a favorable matchup in New Jersey, a team they're familiar with and a team that doesn't have New York's depth. But the Devils have Martin Brodeur, and he will frustrate the Rangers out of the playoffs in seven games.
5. Philadelphia Flyers (45-26-11, 101 points)
Good news: Keith Primeau, the captain, has been practicing with the team after missing pretty much the whole season with concussion issues.
Bad news: Primeau is probably not going to play, though nothing in the playoffs can be ruled out. Coaches will hide everything they can hide, and there's no chance that Ken Hitchcock will say anything definitive about Primeau's status until he is absolutely certain that he can't use the information against someone.
If Primeau can play, look out. But I'm not counting on it.
Why the Flyers will go far: With how great Robert Esche was during Philly's 2004 Eastern Conference playoff run, it's not a stretch to suggest that he could do it again. If Peter Forsberg is healthy, he undoubtedly makes Philadelphia a better team. Guys like Simon Gagne, Mike Knuble, and Joni Pitkanen feed off of Forsberg, and the power play is better when Forsberg is around, too. Hitchcock is a savvy, experienced coach who has won the Stanley Cup, and there is no question that he can do it again.
Why the Flyers will go away: Esche has been inconsistent and banged-up this season, and he is looking over his shoulder at Antero Niittymaki, who led Finland to the Olympic silver medal in February. It sounds like Esche will start Game One in Buffalo on Saturday, but how long will he stay in net? Will the Flyers rotate goalies? Will Esche play himself out of the job? Can Forsberg stay in the lineup? If Forsberg is out, the Flyers probably will be, too. They'd better stay out of the box, too, as these Flyers rank a startling 27th in the NHL on the penalty kill.
Bottom line: While Philadelphia will keep things interesting, they don't have the defense or the consistent goaltending necessary to slow down Buffalo in the first round. Philadelphia will lose to the Sabres in six games.
4. New Jersey Devils (46-27-9, 101 points)
The Devils are an interesting case. They're the hottest team in the league, having won their last eleven (!) games. They have loads of playoff experience, and they have one of the best goaltenders of the last 20 years in Brodeur. The Devils looked shaky throughout much of the season, but they really picked it up down the stretch.
Why the Devils will go far: It starts with Brodeur. Not only can he be downright spectacular, but he's one of the most consistent goaltenders in the game. He knows what he has to do to help his team win, and this year, that's a little more than it used to be, because the Devils aren't as good defensively as they used to be. I remember watching Brian Gionta play at Boston College, and I never remember thinking that there would be a time where Gionta would get anywhere near 50 goals in a single NHL season. He set a franchise record this year with 48. Scott Gomez and Patrik Elias can score. Elias had 16 in just 38 games, a pace that would have seen him score 35 in a full season. Brian Rafalski leads the defensive corps, and while his offensive numbers suffered this year, his defense is still as good as it gets.
Why the Devils will go away: They're not particularly good defensively, and even with Brodeur playing as well as Brodeur plays, they give up more goals than we're used to seeing them give up. They're also not very deep, with Gionta and Gomez the only 30-goal scorers. In the "new NHL", it seems like Jersey will eventually have to find a lot more production out of their second and third lines.
Bottom line: Jersey has enough scoring and goaltending to get by the slumping Rangers, but it won't be easy. The Devils then would have to play Carolina, a team with too much speed and skill for New Jersey to handle effectively. Carolina eliminates the Devils in a seven-game conference semifinal series.
3. Ottawa Senators (52-21-9, 113 points)
The Senators signed Dominik Hasek in hopes that he was the missing piece to a Cup Finals run. Unfortunately for Ottawa, all Hasek has been lately is a missing piece. He hasn't played since February 11, leaving the goaltending duties to rookie Ray Emery.
That means that this year's Senators look a lot like previous Senator teams. Lots of skill. Lots of scoring. Okay defense. Shaky goaltending.
At least Ottawa fans should be used to this by now.
Why the Senators will go far: Outside of Hasek, they're healthy now. The Senators have talented defenseman Zdeno Chara back, with Chris Phillips possibly back in time for the playoff opener. Wade Redden is also a very good defenseman. Overall, the Sens are as talented and as deep defensively as they've ever been. Martin Havlat is back up front, and the top line of Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, and Daniel Alfredsson is as good a line as you'll find in the NHL. If Hasek can go, the Senators suddenly become dangerously close to a complete team.
Why the Senators will go away: Hasek might play. Key word: "might". The Senators just don't know, and as long as he's a question mark, he's a distraction. Ottawa likes Emery, but he's not as good as Hasek, and he lacks the big-game experience. But Hasek's groin has been a problem for years, and the Senators have themselves to blame if Emery fails in the playoffs, because they should have had a better backup plan in place. If Havlat doesn't produce, it puts a lot of pressure on that top line to carry the Ottawa attack.
Bottom line: Ottawa can make a run, even without Hasek. But it would be a lot better for them if there was a decision made, one way or the other. Either way, the health of Chara, Phillips, and Havlat is huge for Ottawa. And they need to avoid the stigma of previous playoff troubles. Ottawa gets by Tampa Bay in a surprisingly easy five-game series, but Ottawa can't skate past Buffalo, as the Sabres use their superior goaltending to knock out the Senators in six games.
2. Carolina Hurricanes (52-22-8, 112 points)
The Hurricanes were the story of the league this season, shocking everyone by finishing in the top half of the East, and narrowly missing out on the top seed. The Hurricanes have good speed and skill up front, and their goaltending has been much better than what was expected when the season started, as Martin Gerber stepped up and had a fine season. Attendance shot up in Raleigh, as fans found out what a real hockey team looks like, and they liked it.
Why the Hurricanes will go far: Carolina has plenty of scoring. Eric Staal had a great season. Rod Brind'Amour found the fountain of youth. Cory Stillman continued to be a solid, steady veteran presence. Their defensemen are more the stay-at-home types, but they can jump into the play when needed. Bret Hedican, Glen Wesley, and Aaron Ward have been around the block, and Mike Commodore had a good season. Gerber got hot in the Olympics and carried Switzerland on a fun ride.
Why the Hurricanes will go away: Like the Rangers, the 'Canes didn't have the strongest finish. They weren't a real strong road team this year, either, playing much better in front of the home fans. The Hurricanes lost four of their last five, including two of their last three games at the RBC Center. The Hurricanes are skilled, but not particularly deep, and they're not the grittiest team in the conference. They'll have trouble against hot goaltenders because their offense is such a sparkplug for the entire team.
Bottom line: Every year, someone with a high seed gets bumped. In some years, more than one team gets bumped. This year, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't trust Tampa Bay or Montreal enough to pick them to pull off the upsets. Carolina wins over Montreal, but they need six games to get it done. That's followed up by an epic seven-game series win over a game New Jersey outfit that just doesn't have enough depth to hold up. Carolina loses the East finals in seven games to...
1. Buffalo Sabres (52-24-6, 110 points)
Talk about teams that benefitted from the "new" NHL. Buffalo has certainly done that. While the Sabres don't strike fear into you when you look at the statistics, because they don't have that 100-point guy or 50-goal guy. Instead, the Sabres have a staggering eleven players who reached double-digits in goals. Six of the eleven finished with 20 or more goals. It's that balance, along with the goaltending of Ryan Miller (a Hobey Baker winner at Michigan State), that makes Buffalo such a tough out.
Why the Sabres will go far: Balance. Buffalo's top scorer is Maxim Afinogenov (73 points). He tied for 42nd in the league in scoring. Chris Drury hit the 30-goal mark. Daniel Briere and Ales Kotalik both hit 25 goals, as did rookie Thomas Vanek. J.P. Dumont also hit the 20-goal mark. Miller rebounded from an early injury to post outstanding numbers. On defense, the Sabres aren't outstanding, but they get in the way. Jay McKee led the league this year in shots blocked, which shows his willingness to pay the price, and his teammates share that work ethic. No team in the league can boast Buffalo's balance, and Miller gives the Sabres upside in goal that they haven't had in some time. (None of this is meant to forget about Martin Biron, who can also play. He won 21 games for the Sabres this season.)
Why the Sabres will go away: While Drury and Afinogenov are good, they're not good enough to carry this team. Who steps up and scores in the clutch? Can the Sabres play good-enough defense in front of Miller and/or Biron? They have some issues there, though they will benefit from a healthy Dmitri Kalinin. I don't know how Drury is -11 for the season, as he has really developed his defensive game.
Bottom line: This might not be the sexy pick in the East, but it's my pick. The Sabres are as good as anyone in the league, thanks to their balance and work ethic. They have enough depth to run the Flyers out in the first round, and they have enough skill and goaltending to deal with Ottawa and Carolina on their way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Who will the Sabres face off against for the right to lift the Cup? You'll just have to wait until tomorrow to find out.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST-ROUND SCHEDULE (courtesy NHL.com)
Ottawa vs Tampa Bay
Game 1: Friday at Ottawa, 7pm ET (CBC)
Game 2: Sunday at Ottawa, 6pm ET (OLN)
Game 3: Tuesday at Tampa, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 4: April 27 at Tampa, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 5: April 29 at Ottawa, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 6: May 1 at Tampa, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 7: May 3 at Ottawa, 7pm ET (CBC)
Carolina vs Montreal
Game 1: Saturday at Carolina, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 2: Monday at Carolina, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 3: Wednesday at Montreal, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 4: April 28 at Montreal, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 5: April 30 at Carolina, 7:30pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 6: May 2 at Montreal, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 7: May 4 at Carolina, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
New Jersey vs New York Rangers
Game 1: Saturday at New Jersey, 3pm ET (NBC, TSN)
Game 2: Monday at New Jersey, 7pm ET (OLN)
Game 3: Wednesday at New York, 7pm ET (OLN)
Game 4: April 29 at New York, 3pm ET (NBC, TSN)
Game 5: April 30 at New Jersey, 6pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 6: May 2 at New York, 7pm ET (OLN)
Game 7: May 4 at New Jersey, TBA (OLN)
Buffalo vs Philadelphia
Game 1: Saturday at Buffalo, 7pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 2: Monday at Buffalo, 7pm ET (TSN)
Game 3: Wednesday at Philadelphia, 7pm ET (TSN)
Game 4: April 28 at Philadelphia, 7pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 5: April 30 at Buffalo, 2pm ET (NBC, TSN)
Game 6: May 2 at Philadelphia, 7pm ET (TSN)
Game 7: May 4 at Buffalo, 7pm ET (TSN)
The season was entertaining. Scoring was up. Tempo was up. It turned back into, for the most part, a young man's game, with two rookies topping 100 points (one of them, Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby, became the youngest ever to score 100 points). Attendance was up, even in former NHL outposts like South Florida, Carolina, and Atlanta, where fans seemed to truly enjoy the up-tempo nature of the "new NHL". 18 of the NHL's 30 teams drew average crowds better than 90 percent of their arena capacity. 10 of those teams averaged either a sellout or an overflow crowd every night. Leaguewide attendance could end up being a record. We could find out that information from the NHL sometime today.
The shootout, which I was against at first, has been an absolute success. The players embraced it, with players on the Atlanta Thrashers even wearing their helmets backwards (like a rally cap in baseball) during their team's shootouts. Fans loved it. Do you think any arena around the league emptied before a shootout? And while I still don't like the idea of playoff spots being decided by something so gimmicky, we'd all better get used to it. There's no chance, at this point, that the shootout is going away. It went too well for the league to ditch it now.
Let's count down the eight playoff contenders in the East. The postseason starts Friday. When I post the West preview, we'll talk about one of the biggest playoff storylines this spring: officiating.
8. Montreal Canadiens (42-31-9, 93 points)
The Canadiens got everyone's attention by winning ten of twelve games on their way to the playoffs. However, Montreal had to back into the postseason after losing their last two home games, including blowing a 3-0 lead in their final game and losing to New Jersey. The Habs have quality goaltending, but can they play enough defense to spring an opening-round upset?
Why the Canadiens will go far: For Montreal, one of the major keys has been the power play. In the playoffs, every special-teams opportunity is important, and it's nice to have the fifth-ranked power play in the NHL on your side. Alexei Kovalev is absolutely explosive, and Michael Ryder had himself a nice 30-goal season. The Canadiens have strong goaltending, with Cristobal Huet leading the way with his .930 save percentage. The team hopes that, if Huet falters, David Aebischer will benefit from a change of scenery and play well for them after struggling in Colorado.
Why the Canadiens will go away: Blowing a 3-0 lead on home ice can never be acceptable, and in the case of the Montreal-Jersey game Tuesday night, it exposed the major weakness of the Canadiens: Defense. The Habs just don't play consistently well in their own zone, and they give up a lot of shots and scoring chances as a result. Huet and Aebischer are prone to slumps, and the offense doesn't have enough support for Kovalev. Saku Koivu has been slumping for some time, and the Habs aren't particularly deep up front.
Bottom line: The Canadiens are game, but they are overrun by Carolina's skill and depth in the first round. Montreal loses in six games.
7. Tampa Bay Lightning (43-33-6, 92 points)
The defending Cup champions are the eighth seed in this year's tournament. Tampa had some issues in goal this year, and the play up front was often inconsistent. With the run this team had in 2004, no one questions their ability to put it all back together in the playoffs this year. But it seems like too much to ask for this team to upend a team that they failed to beat in four tries during the regular season.
Why the Lightning will go far: I'm not a fan of using "experience" as an argument, but it's hard to argue against the idea that the Lightning will benefit at least a little bit from their status as the defending champion. And they still have much of that cast intact. Defensemen Dan Boyle, Pavel Kubina, and Darryl Sydor can play. And we all know the Lightning can score with the best of them, led by Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, and Ruslan Fedotenko.
Why the Lightning will go away: Goaltending. Sean Burke and John Grahame both showed flashes of solid play this season, but neither was nearly consistent enough to earn the job on a regular basis. The defense also had issues this season, allowing too many quality scoring chances in front of what was largely shaky goaltending. The Lightning were off-and-on all season, and now they have to hope that they can "flip the switch" in time for the second season. It's a lot to ask of anyone, even a reigning Stanley Cup champion.
Bottom line: The Lightning play better in their own zone, but a lack of timely scoring and spotty goaltending conspire to doom them in a five-game run against top-seeded Ottawa.
6. New York Rangers (44-26-12, 100 points)
It was simple for the Rangers with five games left. All they needed was one win. One.
They got none.
The Rangers ended up doing the impossible. They blew an insurmountable lead and lost the division title to New Jersey. In the process, the Rangers, on the last night of the season, fell from the third seed to the sixth seed.
Why the Rangers will go far: Henrik Lundqvist is one of the top goaltenders in the league. He sat out a few games down the stretch to rest a hip problem, but he's allegedly okay now. While the NHL may have changed a little bit, one thing hasn't changed. Goaltending will be huge in the playoffs. The Rangers have the goaltending to carry them on a long run, and they have some depth. Guys like Petr Prucha, Petr Sykora, and Jason Ward are solid third- and fourth-line players, and Sykora doesn't lack in experience. With a top-line scorer like Jaromir Jagr on the first line, the Rangers can certainly score goals. Jagr may have had his best season this year. The Rangers are good on special teams.
Why the Rangers will go away: They didn't play well down the stretch, and the Rangers are matched up with an opponent (New Jersey) who is on an 11-game winning streak, including a four-goal rally to win their season finale and clinch the Atlantic Division. The Rangers need to solidify their defensive play, as was evidenced by Ottawa's five-goal performance at the Garden on Tuesday night. The Rangers showed a ton of promise throughout the season, and now they need to cash in on it, and do it as the underdog.
Bottom line: The Rangers have a favorable matchup in New Jersey, a team they're familiar with and a team that doesn't have New York's depth. But the Devils have Martin Brodeur, and he will frustrate the Rangers out of the playoffs in seven games.
5. Philadelphia Flyers (45-26-11, 101 points)
Good news: Keith Primeau, the captain, has been practicing with the team after missing pretty much the whole season with concussion issues.
Bad news: Primeau is probably not going to play, though nothing in the playoffs can be ruled out. Coaches will hide everything they can hide, and there's no chance that Ken Hitchcock will say anything definitive about Primeau's status until he is absolutely certain that he can't use the information against someone.
If Primeau can play, look out. But I'm not counting on it.
Why the Flyers will go far: With how great Robert Esche was during Philly's 2004 Eastern Conference playoff run, it's not a stretch to suggest that he could do it again. If Peter Forsberg is healthy, he undoubtedly makes Philadelphia a better team. Guys like Simon Gagne, Mike Knuble, and Joni Pitkanen feed off of Forsberg, and the power play is better when Forsberg is around, too. Hitchcock is a savvy, experienced coach who has won the Stanley Cup, and there is no question that he can do it again.
Why the Flyers will go away: Esche has been inconsistent and banged-up this season, and he is looking over his shoulder at Antero Niittymaki, who led Finland to the Olympic silver medal in February. It sounds like Esche will start Game One in Buffalo on Saturday, but how long will he stay in net? Will the Flyers rotate goalies? Will Esche play himself out of the job? Can Forsberg stay in the lineup? If Forsberg is out, the Flyers probably will be, too. They'd better stay out of the box, too, as these Flyers rank a startling 27th in the NHL on the penalty kill.
Bottom line: While Philadelphia will keep things interesting, they don't have the defense or the consistent goaltending necessary to slow down Buffalo in the first round. Philadelphia will lose to the Sabres in six games.
4. New Jersey Devils (46-27-9, 101 points)
The Devils are an interesting case. They're the hottest team in the league, having won their last eleven (!) games. They have loads of playoff experience, and they have one of the best goaltenders of the last 20 years in Brodeur. The Devils looked shaky throughout much of the season, but they really picked it up down the stretch.
Why the Devils will go far: It starts with Brodeur. Not only can he be downright spectacular, but he's one of the most consistent goaltenders in the game. He knows what he has to do to help his team win, and this year, that's a little more than it used to be, because the Devils aren't as good defensively as they used to be. I remember watching Brian Gionta play at Boston College, and I never remember thinking that there would be a time where Gionta would get anywhere near 50 goals in a single NHL season. He set a franchise record this year with 48. Scott Gomez and Patrik Elias can score. Elias had 16 in just 38 games, a pace that would have seen him score 35 in a full season. Brian Rafalski leads the defensive corps, and while his offensive numbers suffered this year, his defense is still as good as it gets.
Why the Devils will go away: They're not particularly good defensively, and even with Brodeur playing as well as Brodeur plays, they give up more goals than we're used to seeing them give up. They're also not very deep, with Gionta and Gomez the only 30-goal scorers. In the "new NHL", it seems like Jersey will eventually have to find a lot more production out of their second and third lines.
Bottom line: Jersey has enough scoring and goaltending to get by the slumping Rangers, but it won't be easy. The Devils then would have to play Carolina, a team with too much speed and skill for New Jersey to handle effectively. Carolina eliminates the Devils in a seven-game conference semifinal series.
3. Ottawa Senators (52-21-9, 113 points)
The Senators signed Dominik Hasek in hopes that he was the missing piece to a Cup Finals run. Unfortunately for Ottawa, all Hasek has been lately is a missing piece. He hasn't played since February 11, leaving the goaltending duties to rookie Ray Emery.
That means that this year's Senators look a lot like previous Senator teams. Lots of skill. Lots of scoring. Okay defense. Shaky goaltending.
At least Ottawa fans should be used to this by now.
Why the Senators will go far: Outside of Hasek, they're healthy now. The Senators have talented defenseman Zdeno Chara back, with Chris Phillips possibly back in time for the playoff opener. Wade Redden is also a very good defenseman. Overall, the Sens are as talented and as deep defensively as they've ever been. Martin Havlat is back up front, and the top line of Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, and Daniel Alfredsson is as good a line as you'll find in the NHL. If Hasek can go, the Senators suddenly become dangerously close to a complete team.
Why the Senators will go away: Hasek might play. Key word: "might". The Senators just don't know, and as long as he's a question mark, he's a distraction. Ottawa likes Emery, but he's not as good as Hasek, and he lacks the big-game experience. But Hasek's groin has been a problem for years, and the Senators have themselves to blame if Emery fails in the playoffs, because they should have had a better backup plan in place. If Havlat doesn't produce, it puts a lot of pressure on that top line to carry the Ottawa attack.
Bottom line: Ottawa can make a run, even without Hasek. But it would be a lot better for them if there was a decision made, one way or the other. Either way, the health of Chara, Phillips, and Havlat is huge for Ottawa. And they need to avoid the stigma of previous playoff troubles. Ottawa gets by Tampa Bay in a surprisingly easy five-game series, but Ottawa can't skate past Buffalo, as the Sabres use their superior goaltending to knock out the Senators in six games.
2. Carolina Hurricanes (52-22-8, 112 points)
The Hurricanes were the story of the league this season, shocking everyone by finishing in the top half of the East, and narrowly missing out on the top seed. The Hurricanes have good speed and skill up front, and their goaltending has been much better than what was expected when the season started, as Martin Gerber stepped up and had a fine season. Attendance shot up in Raleigh, as fans found out what a real hockey team looks like, and they liked it.
Why the Hurricanes will go far: Carolina has plenty of scoring. Eric Staal had a great season. Rod Brind'Amour found the fountain of youth. Cory Stillman continued to be a solid, steady veteran presence. Their defensemen are more the stay-at-home types, but they can jump into the play when needed. Bret Hedican, Glen Wesley, and Aaron Ward have been around the block, and Mike Commodore had a good season. Gerber got hot in the Olympics and carried Switzerland on a fun ride.
Why the Hurricanes will go away: Like the Rangers, the 'Canes didn't have the strongest finish. They weren't a real strong road team this year, either, playing much better in front of the home fans. The Hurricanes lost four of their last five, including two of their last three games at the RBC Center. The Hurricanes are skilled, but not particularly deep, and they're not the grittiest team in the conference. They'll have trouble against hot goaltenders because their offense is such a sparkplug for the entire team.
Bottom line: Every year, someone with a high seed gets bumped. In some years, more than one team gets bumped. This year, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't trust Tampa Bay or Montreal enough to pick them to pull off the upsets. Carolina wins over Montreal, but they need six games to get it done. That's followed up by an epic seven-game series win over a game New Jersey outfit that just doesn't have enough depth to hold up. Carolina loses the East finals in seven games to...
1. Buffalo Sabres (52-24-6, 110 points)
Talk about teams that benefitted from the "new" NHL. Buffalo has certainly done that. While the Sabres don't strike fear into you when you look at the statistics, because they don't have that 100-point guy or 50-goal guy. Instead, the Sabres have a staggering eleven players who reached double-digits in goals. Six of the eleven finished with 20 or more goals. It's that balance, along with the goaltending of Ryan Miller (a Hobey Baker winner at Michigan State), that makes Buffalo such a tough out.
Why the Sabres will go far: Balance. Buffalo's top scorer is Maxim Afinogenov (73 points). He tied for 42nd in the league in scoring. Chris Drury hit the 30-goal mark. Daniel Briere and Ales Kotalik both hit 25 goals, as did rookie Thomas Vanek. J.P. Dumont also hit the 20-goal mark. Miller rebounded from an early injury to post outstanding numbers. On defense, the Sabres aren't outstanding, but they get in the way. Jay McKee led the league this year in shots blocked, which shows his willingness to pay the price, and his teammates share that work ethic. No team in the league can boast Buffalo's balance, and Miller gives the Sabres upside in goal that they haven't had in some time. (None of this is meant to forget about Martin Biron, who can also play. He won 21 games for the Sabres this season.)
Why the Sabres will go away: While Drury and Afinogenov are good, they're not good enough to carry this team. Who steps up and scores in the clutch? Can the Sabres play good-enough defense in front of Miller and/or Biron? They have some issues there, though they will benefit from a healthy Dmitri Kalinin. I don't know how Drury is -11 for the season, as he has really developed his defensive game.
Bottom line: This might not be the sexy pick in the East, but it's my pick. The Sabres are as good as anyone in the league, thanks to their balance and work ethic. They have enough depth to run the Flyers out in the first round, and they have enough skill and goaltending to deal with Ottawa and Carolina on their way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Who will the Sabres face off against for the right to lift the Cup? You'll just have to wait until tomorrow to find out.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST-ROUND SCHEDULE (courtesy NHL.com)
Ottawa vs Tampa Bay
Game 1: Friday at Ottawa, 7pm ET (CBC)
Game 2: Sunday at Ottawa, 6pm ET (OLN)
Game 3: Tuesday at Tampa, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 4: April 27 at Tampa, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 5: April 29 at Ottawa, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 6: May 1 at Tampa, 7pm ET (OLN, CBC)
Game 7: May 3 at Ottawa, 7pm ET (CBC)
Carolina vs Montreal
Game 1: Saturday at Carolina, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 2: Monday at Carolina, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 3: Wednesday at Montreal, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 4: April 28 at Montreal, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 5: April 30 at Carolina, 7:30pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 6: May 2 at Montreal, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
Game 7: May 4 at Carolina, 7pm ET (CBC, RDS)
New Jersey vs New York Rangers
Game 1: Saturday at New Jersey, 3pm ET (NBC, TSN)
Game 2: Monday at New Jersey, 7pm ET (OLN)
Game 3: Wednesday at New York, 7pm ET (OLN)
Game 4: April 29 at New York, 3pm ET (NBC, TSN)
Game 5: April 30 at New Jersey, 6pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 6: May 2 at New York, 7pm ET (OLN)
Game 7: May 4 at New Jersey, TBA (OLN)
Buffalo vs Philadelphia
Game 1: Saturday at Buffalo, 7pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 2: Monday at Buffalo, 7pm ET (TSN)
Game 3: Wednesday at Philadelphia, 7pm ET (TSN)
Game 4: April 28 at Philadelphia, 7pm ET (OLN, TSN)
Game 5: April 30 at Buffalo, 2pm ET (NBC, TSN)
Game 6: May 2 at Philadelphia, 7pm ET (TSN)
Game 7: May 4 at Buffalo, 7pm ET (TSN)
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Please tell me this isn't real
Please.
I mean, we all know this guy is nuts, but this can't be real.
Can it?
Someone help us.
If this is some sort of publicity stunt for Cruise's huge blockbuster movie, it's a sick one. And I can't imagine how it would work.
Maybe Cruise thinks he's auditioning for Movie Star Fear Factor.
And if you're Katie Holmes, are you scared yet? I mean, you know this guy's gone off the deep end. And he's about to pull you off the same deep end to join him. Oh, yeah, and there's this...
YOU'RE HAVING THIS WHACKO'S BABY!!!
How much more does Cruise need to say before someone cracks a joke about Holmes being better off carrying Michael Jackson's baby? Or have we already passed this point?
I mean, we all know this guy is nuts, but this can't be real.
Can it?
Tom Cruise yesterday revealed his latest bizarre mission..to eat his new baby's placenta.
Cruise vowed he would tuck in straight after girlfriend Katie Holmes gives birth, saying he thought it would be "very nutritious".
The Mission Impossible star, 43, said: "I'm gonna eat the placenta. I thought that would be good. Very nutritious. I'm gonna eat the cord and the placenta right there."
Someone help us.
If this is some sort of publicity stunt for Cruise's huge blockbuster movie, it's a sick one. And I can't imagine how it would work.
Maybe Cruise thinks he's auditioning for Movie Star Fear Factor.
And if you're Katie Holmes, are you scared yet? I mean, you know this guy's gone off the deep end. And he's about to pull you off the same deep end to join him. Oh, yeah, and there's this...
YOU'RE HAVING THIS WHACKO'S BABY!!!
How much more does Cruise need to say before someone cracks a joke about Holmes being better off carrying Michael Jackson's baby? Or have we already passed this point?
Randomization, 04/18/06
<--This man wants to know...Did you pay your taxes? Seriously, you don't want this guy coming after you searching for your taxes. And he will find you. He always does.
Duke players arrested. I don't know how hard it will be to prove a case that is apparently so lacking in physical evidence, but it seems like the prosecution has their work cut out for them. On the surface, this looks like it may turn into the Kobe Bryant case, which was a public relations disaster for, in the end, everyone involved who wasn't named "Kobe Bryant". The players, sophomores Reade Seligmann and Collin Finnerty, have been booked on charges of rape, sexual assault, and kidnapping. Both players maintain their innocence, and defense attorneys still point to the fact that 46 DNA tests of players came back with no matches on the accuser. The prosecution points to court records that say a medical examination of the accuser found injuries consistent with rape, and the fact that the accuser has reportedly identified her attackers with "100 percent certainty" (two of them) and "90 percent certainty" (the other one).
If this goes to trial, it won't be pretty. The defense is adamant that the players didn't do anything wrong - remember, hiring a stripper to "perform" at a college party might be stupid and immature, but it isn't illegal. There are allegations of rape, kidnapping, assault, racial slurs, and fabrication, just to name a few. Names will drag through the mud, and reputations will be harmed - no matter what the truth really is.
On the bright side, if you didn't think this case was getting enough media attention, MSNBC has now camped both Dan Abrams and Rita Cosby in Durham, North Carolina. I'm sure neither of them will go anywhere until this case is solved, because that's just how committed they are to seeking the truth. Well, that's at least what the MSNBC promos want you to believe.
Ned Yost or Ron Gardenhire. Which manager is dumber? Let's start with Yost.
In back-to-back games, he has allowed relief pitchers to get pounded with the game on the line. On Sunday, he inexplicably left Jorge De La Rosa, who should never be allowed within two miles of a close game, in when he couldn't throw strikes and keep them down in the zone. Last night, he allowed Matt Wise to completely blow a three-run lead that the Brewers had taken ten minutes earlier. I'm all for using Wise in the seventh inning last night, but Yost needs to have a quicker hook, especially in close games where the offense has, you know, just given you a three-run lead. Wise never has issues with his location, and maybe Yost just assumed that Wise would work himself out of it. But this isn't the time for assumptions. It's the time for wins. This team is too young for its manager to make mistakes handling the pitchers the way Yost has the last two games. I'm probably overreacting, which is my nature. But I don't like formula managing, and I think managers sometimes have too much faith in their short relief guys on a game-to-game basis. I am not arguing that Wise should lose his job as the Brewers' primary setup man. He's earned that spot. But that doesn't mean I should have to watch him completely implode on a day where he clearly doesn't have his good stuff.
Now, on to Gardenhire. Undoubtedly, Gardenhire has had issues in the past. But he may have reached a new low this weekend. It'll be interesting to see what the lineup is tonight when the Twins host the
White's OPS? .206.
(Editor's note: OPS=on base+slugging. The league average is usually going to be around .750. So .206 is really bad.)
Why White continued to bat cleanup through the weekend is beyond me. He looked awful in basically every single one of his at-bats against the Yankees, and it got so bad that the Yankees were walking Joe Mauer intentionally to get to the cleanup hitter. Not even the 2003 Detroit Tigers could boast such a horrible cleanup hitter.
Yes, it's early. Yes, the sample size is small. Yes, Rondell White has been a good hitter throughout his career. But a .206 OPS needs to be moved down the order until he works himself out. The Twins have some good young hitters, namely Mauer and Justin Morneau (who seems to have remembered how to hit again after forgetting for much of last season). Veteran free agent acquisition Tony Batista has looked pretty good so far, too. If the pitching comes around like we all think it will, White could be an albatross in the middle of that lineup unless he turns it around.
How good is Sid the Kid? Well, I think he's answered any questions about his game pretty emphatically. Last night, Penguin forward Sidney Crosby had three assists in a win over the Islanders. With those three assists, Crosby became the youngest player in NHL history to score 100 points in a season. Washington's Alexander Ovechkin may be the Calder Trophy winner, but Crosby has been great. The Penguins are a horrific excuse for a hockey team right now, but Crosby still found a way to score 100 points. While the Capitals aren't much better, I'd argue that Ovechkin has a little more to work with than Crosby does. Neither young star will be in the playoffs that start on Friday night, but they are clearly cornerstone players in the "new NHL", and one can only hope that, no matter what you think of the Caps and Pens, these stars eventually get the supporting casts they need to get to the playoffs.
As for the playoffs...More on the NHL later this week, as I'll take a look at the eight-team fields in each conference. The NBA playoffs also start this weekend, so I suppose I'll say a few words about that, too.
Monday, April 17, 2006
Has Mike Jaros ever been to the DECC?
Full credit to Howie Hanson, whose daily e-blog is available for subscription via e-mail. You can read the e-blog and learn more about subscribing here.
Howie's blog today has a comment from Minnesota Representative Mike Jaros (DFL - Duluth) on the proposed DECC expansion, which will try to regain life in conference committee this week after both the Senate and House snubbed the project in their separate bonding bills.
Are you serious, Mr. Jaros? You want to eliminate the new parking ramp for an area that's already tapped out when the current DECC sells out an event? Do you realize what will happen when the new arena takes away even more parking spaces? Have you ever been to a sold-out event at the DECC?
I know this. If the arena goes through without a parking ramp being added, I'll be even more grateful for my current position, a position that requires me to arrive at the DECC in the area of two hours before faceoff.
Now, let me address his idea to have Jeno Paulucci contribute some cash to the project.
On its merits, Jaros' idea makes sense. Business owners in Canal Park certainly reap some benefits from having the DECC in the area, and they would reap benefits from having a new arena there as well. Jeno's not the only one who has made some money off of UMD hockey fans (along with convention and trade show attendees and concertgoers). It would be great to have all these folks contribute to this arena, an arena that will only help their bottom lines.
However, where the hell was this idea when the planning was underway? Why, Mr. Jaros, did you wait until the closing stages of bonding bill discussion to talk publicly about this idea?
(Furthermore, don't you think it's plausible that the idea has already been brought up by someone? After all, these business owners are under no obligation to pay for the new rink, even though it would probably be a pretty smart investment to make toward the future of the Canal Park area.)
I'm just wondering. Maybe these questions have easy answers. Maybe they don't.
But I know this: Mike Jaros is one of the representatives who has done virtually nothing to fight for this project, despite the hard work being done by Mayor Bergson (and I'm not really a Bergson fan), and despite the hard work of many city leaders, who have spent a lot of time in St. Paul lobbying for this project. Apparently, the fact that many civic leaders labeled the DECC as a 'top legislative priority' wasn't enough to get the attention of our elected representatives.
The converse of this argument is that the fight is not yet over, and there is still time to salvage this project. If that is to happen, it is not going to be without the help of said local representatives. So while I'm not giving up yet, it's looking more and more everday like Duluth's longtime marriage to the DFL may be on the rocks.
Howie's blog today has a comment from Minnesota Representative Mike Jaros (DFL - Duluth) on the proposed DECC expansion, which will try to regain life in conference committee this week after both the Senate and House snubbed the project in their separate bonding bills.
"I hope Mary Murphy will be on the House/Senate bonding conference committee like last time. As you know, this project has been around for around five or six years. First, the DECC was going to remodel and expand the present facility. Two years ago the request was around $40 million and this year it is $67 million. It would be nice to reduce the amount some way. Perhaps the parking ramp could be eliminated. Half would come from the state and the other half would be paid by DECC, UMD and the hospitality sales tax that Duluthians voted for. It looks like it will be a tough sell again this year, so I was thinking that it would be nice if we could get one third from Mr. (Jeno) Paulucci, who is a big supporter, one third from the state and the rest from local sources. We could name it the DECC Paulucci/UMD Arena. Joel Labovitz is contributing a few million for the SBE/UMD."I'll address the italicized text first.
Are you serious, Mr. Jaros? You want to eliminate the new parking ramp for an area that's already tapped out when the current DECC sells out an event? Do you realize what will happen when the new arena takes away even more parking spaces? Have you ever been to a sold-out event at the DECC?
I know this. If the arena goes through without a parking ramp being added, I'll be even more grateful for my current position, a position that requires me to arrive at the DECC in the area of two hours before faceoff.
Now, let me address his idea to have Jeno Paulucci contribute some cash to the project.
On its merits, Jaros' idea makes sense. Business owners in Canal Park certainly reap some benefits from having the DECC in the area, and they would reap benefits from having a new arena there as well. Jeno's not the only one who has made some money off of UMD hockey fans (along with convention and trade show attendees and concertgoers). It would be great to have all these folks contribute to this arena, an arena that will only help their bottom lines.
However, where the hell was this idea when the planning was underway? Why, Mr. Jaros, did you wait until the closing stages of bonding bill discussion to talk publicly about this idea?
(Furthermore, don't you think it's plausible that the idea has already been brought up by someone? After all, these business owners are under no obligation to pay for the new rink, even though it would probably be a pretty smart investment to make toward the future of the Canal Park area.)
I'm just wondering. Maybe these questions have easy answers. Maybe they don't.
But I know this: Mike Jaros is one of the representatives who has done virtually nothing to fight for this project, despite the hard work being done by Mayor Bergson (and I'm not really a Bergson fan), and despite the hard work of many city leaders, who have spent a lot of time in St. Paul lobbying for this project. Apparently, the fact that many civic leaders labeled the DECC as a 'top legislative priority' wasn't enough to get the attention of our elected representatives.
The converse of this argument is that the fight is not yet over, and there is still time to salvage this project. If that is to happen, it is not going to be without the help of said local representatives. So while I'm not giving up yet, it's looking more and more everday like Duluth's longtime marriage to the DFL may be on the rocks.
Friday, April 14, 2006
Randomization, 04/14/06
Happy Easter to everyone. Well, except that moron in St. Paul that forced someone to remove the Easter bunny from City Hall because it's allegedly a religious symbol.
I-Perfection is not Curt Hennig's son. Full credit to the Florida fans who run Every Day Should Be Saturday. They found this guy, who used to play football for Georgia Tech. Even better than I-Perfection? His brother. I-Supreme. You can't make this stuff up. Nice work, Orson and company. I'm still laughing.
The Duke scandal takes another turn. A tape released yesterday indicates that police tabbed the alleged victim as "passed-out drunk" after the Duke lacrosse party in mid-March. Meanwhile, the stubborn district attorney, who is up for re-election on May 2, is still pursuing the case, and there are reports that charges could be filed as soon as Monday. I wonder if Duke President Richard Brodhead has any regret over cancelling the team's season before the DNA results were released, a move that came after the team captains offered to suspend the season until those results were announced. Unless something happened that hasn't shown up in the physical evidence, Brodhead should resign. There's nothing like pre-judging your own students and failing to allow the judicial process to carry itself out before acting on accusations. Brutal.
Finishing off the NHL season. The playoffs start next weekend, and the Vancouver Canucks won't be involved. I can't overstate how happy this makes me. Such justice for an organization that has coddled one of the most notorious thugs in the history of the sport after one of the worst hits in the history of the sport. Even though Brian Burke, one of the biggest Bertuzzi apologists alive, has left the organization, they still treat Bertuzzi with kid gloves. Oh, and their goaltending still sucks. That might also be a minor reason why the Canucks are out. The eight in the West are set, though the order may still change. Right now, the Red Wings would play Edmonton in the first round, while Dallas takes on Colorado, Calgary plays San Jose, and Nashville draws Anaheim. Those four series should all be very good. In the East, the current bracket shows Ottawa taking on defending Cup champion Tampa Bay, Carolina vs. Montreal, the New York Rangers vs. New Jersey, and Buffalo against Philadelphia. The intrigue in the East is whether or not teams like Carolina and the Rangers can keep up their season-long momentum and continue to surprise. The Rangers may have to do it against a playoff-tested team like Jersey or Philly, while Carolina will have to show that their speed and skill can survive what is normally a league-wide backoff on the enforcement of obstruction rules. No matter what happens, it will be nice to see the Stanley Cup actually awarded again this year. It'd be even better if the league allows teams to actually play the game, instead of the muck-it-up style that usually prevails in the postseason.
Scoring is up big-time this season. With one or two games left for most teams in 2005-2006, there are four players currently with 100 points or more points (four others are within three points of 100). Four players have 50 or more goals, with Dany Heatley of Ottawa at 48 goals with two games left. 40 players have 30 or more goals, with 15 more sitting at 28 or 29.
In 2003-2004, the final season before the lockout, only Martin St. Louis of Tampa Bay scored more than 90 points (94). Jarome Iginla and Ilya Kovalchuk tied for the NHL lead with 41 goals. 18 players scored 30 or more goals.
If that doesn't show you that the NHL made some good moves to clean up and jazz up the game after the lockout, I don't know what will. But you can still call me a skeptic, because I will believe that the obstruction-laced game will return in the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong, even though I'll be watching either way.
The feds are after Bonds. It's not a real shock, though the timing is strange. I wonder what the federal government thinks they'll find. If you haven't heard, Barry Bonds is now reportedly being investigated for possible perjury charges that date back to his December 2003 grand jury testimony in the BALCO case. Bonds could be charged with a felony if the feds find anything, but you should keep in mind that they have to prove not only that Bonds lied, but that he knew he was lying and lied intentionally. Proving that means proving that Bonds knew that he was taking steroids (he said he never knowingly took steroids), and that's a pretty steep hill to climb for any prosecutor.
DECC update. The Minnesota House passed their version of the state bonding bill in a vote on Wednesday. Because their near-$1 billion bill is vastly different than the one passed by the Senate, the two branches of the Minnesota Legislature must now get together in a conference committee and reconcile the two bills. Even though the DECC project was only granted $3 million in the House bill and nothing at all in the Senate bill, it's not dead yet. The DECC project was fully funded in Governor Pawlenty's proposal, and he has been an outspoken supporter of the project. House Repulicans have also voiced support, led by Speaker of the House Steve Sviggum. And even though our DFL representation has been largely silent publicly, I still have (blind?) faith that they will fight the good fight to make this project happen. If they don't, we have to make sure they are heard from, both now and at election time. We won't, because one of my fish could run on the DFL ticket and win in this area. But we should.
I-Perfection is not Curt Hennig's son. Full credit to the Florida fans who run Every Day Should Be Saturday. They found this guy, who used to play football for Georgia Tech. Even better than I-Perfection? His brother. I-Supreme. You can't make this stuff up. Nice work, Orson and company. I'm still laughing.
The Duke scandal takes another turn. A tape released yesterday indicates that police tabbed the alleged victim as "passed-out drunk" after the Duke lacrosse party in mid-March. Meanwhile, the stubborn district attorney, who is up for re-election on May 2, is still pursuing the case, and there are reports that charges could be filed as soon as Monday. I wonder if Duke President Richard Brodhead has any regret over cancelling the team's season before the DNA results were released, a move that came after the team captains offered to suspend the season until those results were announced. Unless something happened that hasn't shown up in the physical evidence, Brodhead should resign. There's nothing like pre-judging your own students and failing to allow the judicial process to carry itself out before acting on accusations. Brutal.
Finishing off the NHL season. The playoffs start next weekend, and the Vancouver Canucks won't be involved. I can't overstate how happy this makes me. Such justice for an organization that has coddled one of the most notorious thugs in the history of the sport after one of the worst hits in the history of the sport. Even though Brian Burke, one of the biggest Bertuzzi apologists alive, has left the organization, they still treat Bertuzzi with kid gloves. Oh, and their goaltending still sucks. That might also be a minor reason why the Canucks are out. The eight in the West are set, though the order may still change. Right now, the Red Wings would play Edmonton in the first round, while Dallas takes on Colorado, Calgary plays San Jose, and Nashville draws Anaheim. Those four series should all be very good. In the East, the current bracket shows Ottawa taking on defending Cup champion Tampa Bay, Carolina vs. Montreal, the New York Rangers vs. New Jersey, and Buffalo against Philadelphia. The intrigue in the East is whether or not teams like Carolina and the Rangers can keep up their season-long momentum and continue to surprise. The Rangers may have to do it against a playoff-tested team like Jersey or Philly, while Carolina will have to show that their speed and skill can survive what is normally a league-wide backoff on the enforcement of obstruction rules. No matter what happens, it will be nice to see the Stanley Cup actually awarded again this year. It'd be even better if the league allows teams to actually play the game, instead of the muck-it-up style that usually prevails in the postseason.
Scoring is up big-time this season. With one or two games left for most teams in 2005-2006, there are four players currently with 100 points or more points (four others are within three points of 100). Four players have 50 or more goals, with Dany Heatley of Ottawa at 48 goals with two games left. 40 players have 30 or more goals, with 15 more sitting at 28 or 29.
In 2003-2004, the final season before the lockout, only Martin St. Louis of Tampa Bay scored more than 90 points (94). Jarome Iginla and Ilya Kovalchuk tied for the NHL lead with 41 goals. 18 players scored 30 or more goals.
If that doesn't show you that the NHL made some good moves to clean up and jazz up the game after the lockout, I don't know what will. But you can still call me a skeptic, because I will believe that the obstruction-laced game will return in the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong, even though I'll be watching either way.
The feds are after Bonds. It's not a real shock, though the timing is strange. I wonder what the federal government thinks they'll find. If you haven't heard, Barry Bonds is now reportedly being investigated for possible perjury charges that date back to his December 2003 grand jury testimony in the BALCO case. Bonds could be charged with a felony if the feds find anything, but you should keep in mind that they have to prove not only that Bonds lied, but that he knew he was lying and lied intentionally. Proving that means proving that Bonds knew that he was taking steroids (he said he never knowingly took steroids), and that's a pretty steep hill to climb for any prosecutor.
DECC update. The Minnesota House passed their version of the state bonding bill in a vote on Wednesday. Because their near-$1 billion bill is vastly different than the one passed by the Senate, the two branches of the Minnesota Legislature must now get together in a conference committee and reconcile the two bills. Even though the DECC project was only granted $3 million in the House bill and nothing at all in the Senate bill, it's not dead yet. The DECC project was fully funded in Governor Pawlenty's proposal, and he has been an outspoken supporter of the project. House Repulicans have also voiced support, led by Speaker of the House Steve Sviggum. And even though our DFL representation has been largely silent publicly, I still have (blind?) faith that they will fight the good fight to make this project happen. If they don't, we have to make sure they are heard from, both now and at election time. We won't, because one of my fish could run on the DFL ticket and win in this area. But we should.
UMD season wrap-up: No blame game this year
You might remember the fun we had here last March, when a disappointing UMD men's hockey season came to a merciful close, and I tried to play the blame game to figure out who was most at fault for the letdown. You can read the piece here (just scroll down past the baseball previews - it's near the bottom of the page).
No blame game this year. While 11 wins was a letdown for sure, there is a lot to be excited about.
The unofficial head of the unofficial WCHA/college hockey blog ring, Chris Dilks (an okay guy for a Minnesota State fan with Michigan ties), has requested that I take part, along with a bunch of other bloggers, in a roundtable discussion of the college season. He sent along seven questions. I'll do my best not to "Joe Morgan" any of them and actually answer them instead. Feel free to throw out some thoughts on UMD's season and future, though I'm sure it won't be as much fun as the discussion last year.
Give a brief summary of your team's season
UMD finished 11-25-4 overall, and 6-19-3 in the WCHA (ninth place). Expectations were low because of the 11 freshmen and the heavy personnel losses from the year before, and the start of the season was rough, with four straight losses by a combined score of 18-5. The Bulldogs showed some life in the next few weeks, going 7-5-2 in their next 14 games, including a win over eventual WCHA regular-season champion Minnesota, a win at Colorado College (after a 7-2 loss the previous night), and the program's first two overtime wins since November of 2003.
After a Denver sweep of UMD in mid-December, the Bulldogs placed second in the Florida College Classic in late December. UMD beat eventual Frozen Four participant Maine up and down the ice in a 4-1 semifinal victory, then lost to NCAA quarterfinalist Cornell in a shootout after a 1-1 tie in the title game.
Rock bottom happened shortly after the Florida trip. With expectations rising after the Florida performance, UMD lost their first seven games after the Florida trip, suffering sweeps against Michigan Tech, St. Cloud State, and Minnesota State. Wisconsin whipped UMD 7-2 on Brett Hull Night at the DECC in early February, but UMD came back the next night with a resounding 4-1 win. It would be UMD's last regular-season win, as they lost their last six games before the WCHA playoffs (against North Dakota, Colorado College, and Minnesota) by a combined score of 28-3.
With the late-season skid (1-13 after the Florida trip) as a backdrop, UMD flew to Denver for a first-round WCHA playoff series against the two-time defending national champion Pioneers. Denver needed to win the series to get off the NCAA Tournament bubble. And I think we all know what happened. If you forgot, I put together pseudo-diary of the big weekend. UMD outplayed Denver, in my view, in all three games, and they deserved to win the series in two games. Thankfully, justice was served after Jon Campion's Saturday Screwjob on Saturday night, as UMD blew Denver out of the building on Sunday night. With the win, UMD was off to the Final Five after the second-biggest playoff upset in WCHA history.
The run ended in the play-in game, as St. Cloud State beat UMD 5-1 on their way to the tournament championship game.
What were your thoughts on how your team's season ended?
It was a great show of promise for the future by the young Bulldogs. While the expectations weren't high, people had to believe that the team was going to do more than they did in the second half of the season. The way the season ended was great fun, with the upset win over Denver and the trip to St. Paul.
The team certainly peaked at the right time, and they may have found a goaltender. Sophomore Nate Ziegelmann got the start March 4 at Minnesota, following a 7-0 loss the night before. Ziegelmann made the trip after backup goalie Josh Johnson suffered a leg injury in practice on Friday morning. Otherwise, Johnson would have started the Saturday game. With Ziegelmann as the stopper, UMD had Minnesota holding on to a 1-0 lead until the game's final minute, when Hobey finalist Ryan Potulny scored an empty-net goal, his 397th goal of the season. Ziegelmann got the starts in Denver, and he was nothing short of outstanding in the three-game series. He got quality help in front of him, and the offense chipped in some huge goals.
With the improvement UMD showed in their final five games of the season, fans got a chance to see what the true potential of this group is. And the freshmen who worked so hard throughout the season finally got some rewards for their hard work and dedication. They also learned what it takes to win in the WCHA, a lesson that will only help them in the next couple years.
What offseason improvements can your team make to be better next year?
With so many young players, there is still work to be done. A number of the 2006-2007 sophomores have to get stronger. To name names, I wouldn't mind seeing a few more pounds on guys like Mason Raymond, Michael Gergen, Josh Meyers, and MacGregor Sharp. I expect a number of the guys to stay in town and work out, both on and off the ice.
There are no issues with the work ethic of these young guys, and they will continue to set a good example for what is expected of the players in this program.
Gergen and Raymond need to keep working hard to develop their goal-scoring skills. For UMD to really improve in 2006-2007, they need these guys to step up and score more consistently.
Ziegelmann and incoming freshman Alex Stalock should combine to make a pretty good tandem of goaltenders, and the hope right now is that defenseman Ryan Geris, who missed most of 2004-2005 and all of 2005-2006 with post-concussion issues, will be able to return for his senior season. If Geris can play, he's likely the team captain and will be their steadiest defenseman. He'd be a great leader for the entire group, as he stayed involved during his time away from the game by serving as a volunteer assistant. Geris gained great experience in that role, and it would only add to his ability on the ice if he can make a safe return to hockey.
Are there any players on your team that might leave for the pros during the offseason?
This will probably be more of a worry next season, as Raymond and Gergen, along with defenseman Matt Niskanen (first-round pick), may be candidates to depart. This year, I'm not concerned about anyone leaving the program to go play pro hockey, though I guess anything is possible.
Which player(s) will be expected to carry the load for your team next season?
Sophomores Raymond and Gergen, along with sophomore Nick Kemp, will be big scorers. Meyers is an elite defenseman in the making, and Niskanen is a big-time talent. Stalock has earned rave reviews from basically everyone who's ever seen him play goal, and he should make an impact as a freshman. Also, look out for freshman forward Mitch Ryan, who has turned a slow start into a huge season in the USHL.
The upperclassmen aren't strong in numbers, and they probably won't be strong on the ice next year. Senior-to-be Jeff McFarland works hard every time he steps on the ice, but he's not much of an offensive threat. Bryan McGregor has a ton of talent, and he started to put things together late last season, though his numbers didn't necessarily reflect that. I'm not sure what will happen to Mike Curry. His only two goals last season came in October at Michigan Tech, and he was prone to taking bad penalties and playing a bit out of control at times. He has talent, but he's been a bit of a disappointment so far at UMD. We'll see if he can turn it around.
Which player will be most vital to your team's success next season?
This almost sounds silly, but the answer might be a freshman. UMD had serious struggles with defense and goaltending throughout much of 2005-2006, and even though Stalock has never played a WCHA game, people are already talking about him being a star in the league. If Stalock can respond to the pressure, UMD could surprise some people. However, if Stalock isn't quite ready, and Ziegelmann struggles, UMD is in trouble.
They can score as many goals as they want, but as we saw with the Gophers this year, you won't win consistently in March without good defense and quality goaltending.
What is your expectation for your team next season?
This is still going to be a junior/senior-dominated league for the most part. With that in mind, UMD might still be a year away from being a bona fide contender in the WCHA. Unless guys like McGregor and Curry step up and the young defense is boosted by the Geris' return to the blue line, UMD will probably settle for a middle-of-the-pack season in the WCHA.
If UMD can catch a break and end up with a decent non-conference schedule (Bemidji State and Northern Michigan should be pretty good - the NMU series isn't set in stone yet - while UMD also gets to play in Ohio State's Christmas tournament), they should have the power ratings on their side. I can see the Bulldogs finishing in the top five of the WCHA and earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. I think the worst-case scenario has UMD finishing sixth or seventh and struggling to make the Final Five, which might increase the negativity in this town surrounding the program and head coach Scott Sandelin, who doesn't deserve to have to listen to some of the crap I've heard around town regarding his program.
No blame game this year. While 11 wins was a letdown for sure, there is a lot to be excited about.
The unofficial head of the unofficial WCHA/college hockey blog ring, Chris Dilks (an okay guy for a Minnesota State fan with Michigan ties), has requested that I take part, along with a bunch of other bloggers, in a roundtable discussion of the college season. He sent along seven questions. I'll do my best not to "Joe Morgan" any of them and actually answer them instead. Feel free to throw out some thoughts on UMD's season and future, though I'm sure it won't be as much fun as the discussion last year.
Give a brief summary of your team's season
UMD finished 11-25-4 overall, and 6-19-3 in the WCHA (ninth place). Expectations were low because of the 11 freshmen and the heavy personnel losses from the year before, and the start of the season was rough, with four straight losses by a combined score of 18-5. The Bulldogs showed some life in the next few weeks, going 7-5-2 in their next 14 games, including a win over eventual WCHA regular-season champion Minnesota, a win at Colorado College (after a 7-2 loss the previous night), and the program's first two overtime wins since November of 2003.
After a Denver sweep of UMD in mid-December, the Bulldogs placed second in the Florida College Classic in late December. UMD beat eventual Frozen Four participant Maine up and down the ice in a 4-1 semifinal victory, then lost to NCAA quarterfinalist Cornell in a shootout after a 1-1 tie in the title game.
Rock bottom happened shortly after the Florida trip. With expectations rising after the Florida performance, UMD lost their first seven games after the Florida trip, suffering sweeps against Michigan Tech, St. Cloud State, and Minnesota State. Wisconsin whipped UMD 7-2 on Brett Hull Night at the DECC in early February, but UMD came back the next night with a resounding 4-1 win. It would be UMD's last regular-season win, as they lost their last six games before the WCHA playoffs (against North Dakota, Colorado College, and Minnesota) by a combined score of 28-3.
With the late-season skid (1-13 after the Florida trip) as a backdrop, UMD flew to Denver for a first-round WCHA playoff series against the two-time defending national champion Pioneers. Denver needed to win the series to get off the NCAA Tournament bubble. And I think we all know what happened. If you forgot, I put together pseudo-diary of the big weekend. UMD outplayed Denver, in my view, in all three games, and they deserved to win the series in two games. Thankfully, justice was served after Jon Campion's Saturday Screwjob on Saturday night, as UMD blew Denver out of the building on Sunday night. With the win, UMD was off to the Final Five after the second-biggest playoff upset in WCHA history.
The run ended in the play-in game, as St. Cloud State beat UMD 5-1 on their way to the tournament championship game.
What were your thoughts on how your team's season ended?
It was a great show of promise for the future by the young Bulldogs. While the expectations weren't high, people had to believe that the team was going to do more than they did in the second half of the season. The way the season ended was great fun, with the upset win over Denver and the trip to St. Paul.
The team certainly peaked at the right time, and they may have found a goaltender. Sophomore Nate Ziegelmann got the start March 4 at Minnesota, following a 7-0 loss the night before. Ziegelmann made the trip after backup goalie Josh Johnson suffered a leg injury in practice on Friday morning. Otherwise, Johnson would have started the Saturday game. With Ziegelmann as the stopper, UMD had Minnesota holding on to a 1-0 lead until the game's final minute, when Hobey finalist Ryan Potulny scored an empty-net goal, his 397th goal of the season. Ziegelmann got the starts in Denver, and he was nothing short of outstanding in the three-game series. He got quality help in front of him, and the offense chipped in some huge goals.
With the improvement UMD showed in their final five games of the season, fans got a chance to see what the true potential of this group is. And the freshmen who worked so hard throughout the season finally got some rewards for their hard work and dedication. They also learned what it takes to win in the WCHA, a lesson that will only help them in the next couple years.
What offseason improvements can your team make to be better next year?
With so many young players, there is still work to be done. A number of the 2006-2007 sophomores have to get stronger. To name names, I wouldn't mind seeing a few more pounds on guys like Mason Raymond, Michael Gergen, Josh Meyers, and MacGregor Sharp. I expect a number of the guys to stay in town and work out, both on and off the ice.
There are no issues with the work ethic of these young guys, and they will continue to set a good example for what is expected of the players in this program.
Gergen and Raymond need to keep working hard to develop their goal-scoring skills. For UMD to really improve in 2006-2007, they need these guys to step up and score more consistently.
Ziegelmann and incoming freshman Alex Stalock should combine to make a pretty good tandem of goaltenders, and the hope right now is that defenseman Ryan Geris, who missed most of 2004-2005 and all of 2005-2006 with post-concussion issues, will be able to return for his senior season. If Geris can play, he's likely the team captain and will be their steadiest defenseman. He'd be a great leader for the entire group, as he stayed involved during his time away from the game by serving as a volunteer assistant. Geris gained great experience in that role, and it would only add to his ability on the ice if he can make a safe return to hockey.
Are there any players on your team that might leave for the pros during the offseason?
This will probably be more of a worry next season, as Raymond and Gergen, along with defenseman Matt Niskanen (first-round pick), may be candidates to depart. This year, I'm not concerned about anyone leaving the program to go play pro hockey, though I guess anything is possible.
Which player(s) will be expected to carry the load for your team next season?
Sophomores Raymond and Gergen, along with sophomore Nick Kemp, will be big scorers. Meyers is an elite defenseman in the making, and Niskanen is a big-time talent. Stalock has earned rave reviews from basically everyone who's ever seen him play goal, and he should make an impact as a freshman. Also, look out for freshman forward Mitch Ryan, who has turned a slow start into a huge season in the USHL.
The upperclassmen aren't strong in numbers, and they probably won't be strong on the ice next year. Senior-to-be Jeff McFarland works hard every time he steps on the ice, but he's not much of an offensive threat. Bryan McGregor has a ton of talent, and he started to put things together late last season, though his numbers didn't necessarily reflect that. I'm not sure what will happen to Mike Curry. His only two goals last season came in October at Michigan Tech, and he was prone to taking bad penalties and playing a bit out of control at times. He has talent, but he's been a bit of a disappointment so far at UMD. We'll see if he can turn it around.
Which player will be most vital to your team's success next season?
This almost sounds silly, but the answer might be a freshman. UMD had serious struggles with defense and goaltending throughout much of 2005-2006, and even though Stalock has never played a WCHA game, people are already talking about him being a star in the league. If Stalock can respond to the pressure, UMD could surprise some people. However, if Stalock isn't quite ready, and Ziegelmann struggles, UMD is in trouble.
They can score as many goals as they want, but as we saw with the Gophers this year, you won't win consistently in March without good defense and quality goaltending.
What is your expectation for your team next season?
This is still going to be a junior/senior-dominated league for the most part. With that in mind, UMD might still be a year away from being a bona fide contender in the WCHA. Unless guys like McGregor and Curry step up and the young defense is boosted by the Geris' return to the blue line, UMD will probably settle for a middle-of-the-pack season in the WCHA.
If UMD can catch a break and end up with a decent non-conference schedule (Bemidji State and Northern Michigan should be pretty good - the NMU series isn't set in stone yet - while UMD also gets to play in Ohio State's Christmas tournament), they should have the power ratings on their side. I can see the Bulldogs finishing in the top five of the WCHA and earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. I think the worst-case scenario has UMD finishing sixth or seventh and struggling to make the Final Five, which might increase the negativity in this town surrounding the program and head coach Scott Sandelin, who doesn't deserve to have to listen to some of the crap I've heard around town regarding his program.
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Randomization, 04/13/06
Bruce on Bonds on Bonds. Having only seen the segment where Bonds blubbers like George Brett on the day he retired, I can't vouch for the overall quality of the show. I do, however, have to address a couple of issues that come up regarding the show. First off, ESPN is not doing themselves any favors by entering into a business relationship with someone who they cover on a regular basis. The Bob Knight show they did was tolerable for a couple reasons, including the fact that there was virtually no chance of there being anything newsworthy eminating from the program. But the concept - entering into a business relationship with a newsworthy figure - still has its flaws. Can ESPN continue to cover Bonds without any biases, or do they run the risk of harming their business relationship with Bonds and the production company contracted to put the show together? ESPN has been doing more lately to blur these lines, with Knight's "Knight School" show, where prospects competed for a chance to walk on to the Texas Tech basketball team, and the Sebastian Telfair documentary "Through the Fire", which was "independently produced", but still required the cooperation of Telfair and his family. What is Bonds going to do that is worthy of a 30-minute show every week? He hates the media, and he seems to detest the idea that people would be interested in his life behind the scenes. Word is that this was the idea of Bonds and his agent, as a way of letting the public get to know Bonds a little better. But unless Bonds owns up to whatever he did to allow his body to blow up like it did, no one is going to be interested in what he has to say. So far, it's been typical "poor me" stuff from Bonds, complete with the crying episode at the end of the premiere. Bonds wants us to feel bad for him because he's been treated like crap by the media for all these years. Bonds, though, has done nothing about this treatment. Instead of being rude and condescending to the press, just ignore them, Barry. Put your headphones on, shut your eyes, and say nothing. Eventually, they will go away.
NFL Draft BS. That's what most of this is - BS. The final two weeks before the draft are all about GMs and coaches trying to convince us that they are going to do what they say they are going to do, when the exact opposite is true. Typically, if team representatives start talking publicly about a player they say they love, it means they don't like him. The converse of that is also typically true. Teams that are "certain to try to move up" are either going to stay put or move down. 90% of trades that are rumored before the draft won't happen during the draft. Instead, a bunch of trades will make their way in out of left field. Teams bring in players for interviews all the time, but those players are sometimes being used as smokescreens to hide the player that said team truly likes and wants with their first-round pick. Guys will move up the board because of their workout numbers and "athletic upside" (call this the Mike Mamula Principle or the Jonathan Sullivan Rule). Guys will move down the board because they passed gas during their interview or when their production in college is forgotten about because of poor measurables (call this the Deion Branch Theory or the Steve Smith Corollary). Teams will be rated on their performance after the draft, even though the players they drafted haven't played a single game, and even though such ratings (or "grades", if you prefer that term) have been proven a fallacy over the years, because we can't predict how well guys will perform at the next level, no matter how hard we try.
Despite all this, we all follow the draft, and we will all react to the picks that our teams make. I will do that here, and I will also preview the draft in the coming two weeks, looking at the top needs of the Packers and Vikings, speculating about the players available in this year's draft that best fit those needs, and talk about the draft itself, presenting a mock draft and looking at sleepers and overrated players.
If it's too much for you, I'll offer my apologies now. I'm one of those morons who will sit and watch the draft pretty much from start to finish. I love the drama of the draft, and I love the debates about individual players. It's great because we all watch the college game, and we all have opinions about players available in the draft. The arguments are often quite passionate, and it makes you wonder if people are discussing the same player. Frankly, it's one of my favorite single events of the spring, and much of it is due to the job the NFL does marketing it and the job ESPN does covering it. I can't imagine any other sport experiencing the same kind of rush with their draft.
NFL Draft BS. That's what most of this is - BS. The final two weeks before the draft are all about GMs and coaches trying to convince us that they are going to do what they say they are going to do, when the exact opposite is true. Typically, if team representatives start talking publicly about a player they say they love, it means they don't like him. The converse of that is also typically true. Teams that are "certain to try to move up" are either going to stay put or move down. 90% of trades that are rumored before the draft won't happen during the draft. Instead, a bunch of trades will make their way in out of left field. Teams bring in players for interviews all the time, but those players are sometimes being used as smokescreens to hide the player that said team truly likes and wants with their first-round pick. Guys will move up the board because of their workout numbers and "athletic upside" (call this the Mike Mamula Principle or the Jonathan Sullivan Rule). Guys will move down the board because they passed gas during their interview or when their production in college is forgotten about because of poor measurables (call this the Deion Branch Theory or the Steve Smith Corollary). Teams will be rated on their performance after the draft, even though the players they drafted haven't played a single game, and even though such ratings (or "grades", if you prefer that term) have been proven a fallacy over the years, because we can't predict how well guys will perform at the next level, no matter how hard we try.
Despite all this, we all follow the draft, and we will all react to the picks that our teams make. I will do that here, and I will also preview the draft in the coming two weeks, looking at the top needs of the Packers and Vikings, speculating about the players available in this year's draft that best fit those needs, and talk about the draft itself, presenting a mock draft and looking at sleepers and overrated players.
If it's too much for you, I'll offer my apologies now. I'm one of those morons who will sit and watch the draft pretty much from start to finish. I love the drama of the draft, and I love the debates about individual players. It's great because we all watch the college game, and we all have opinions about players available in the draft. The arguments are often quite passionate, and it makes you wonder if people are discussing the same player. Frankly, it's one of my favorite single events of the spring, and much of it is due to the job the NFL does marketing it and the job ESPN does covering it. I can't imagine any other sport experiencing the same kind of rush with their draft.
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