--> Does Joe Morgan really think I'm stupid? In a recent chat session on ESPN.com, Morgan responded to a question about the sick lack of run support that Houston starter Roger Clemens has received so far (the Astros haven't scored a single run in any of Clemens' last three starts - all 1-0 losses and Clemens no-decisions). Here is what ESPN's main baseball game analyst had to say: Obviously Roger has pitched well ... but obviously, whoever he was pitching against each time, THAT guy pitched better than him or just as well or else Roger would have more wins. Sure, some pitchers get more run support, but still, the object is to shut them down and win the game. If you are losing games, somebody else, the other pitcher is throwing just as well if not better if he is the one walking away with the win. If you look at last year, Roger got great run support to win those games. I guess the question is, would you rather be Roger Clemens at this point, or Jon Garland who is 4-0. I wouldn't trade Clemens for Garland, but the point remains -- he's winning right now. ... All that said, I think Clemens will get plenty of wins before the season's over. Now, Morgan has been around a lot longer than I have, and I'm not here to say that I know more about baseball or anything like that. But let's be serious for a moment. Roger Clemens has started four games. He's pitched 28 innings, allowed 16 hits, one run (a solo home run in his first start), walked six batters, and struck out 32. How could any rational human being argue that Clemens' 1-0 record and the Astros' 1-3 record in his starts is at all Clemens' fault? Clemens can't control how well the other guy pitches, and he can't control his team's ability to hit that particular pitcher.
It's the crux of my argument as to why win/loss record is one of the most overrated stats in baseball. Clemens won the Cy Young Award last year because he went 18-4. That's a great record, but there were two pitchers (Randy Johnson and Ben Sheets) who statistically outperformed Clemens and didn't get fair consideration for the award because they were a combined 28-28. Johnson and Sheets had better ERAs than Clemens, better WHIPs than Clemens, and they allowed fewer walks combined (76) than Clemens did by himself (79), even though Clemens pitched fewer innings than both of them. The choice made me wonder what exactly the purpose of the award is. After all, I always thought that the Cy Young Award went to the best pitcher in each league. That clearly didn't happen last year, and unless Clemens either trails off or gets some run support, it won't happen this year, either. The writers will give it to the sexy 20-game winner with inferior numbers to Clemens.
For Morgan to fall into that trap is inexcusable. He's seen enough baseball to know better than to do this, but he's unknowingly become part of the problem. Win/loss record is as meaningless to me in baseball as a team's ranking in the polls is to me in college basketball. Good pitchers don't win every game they pitch in, because even the best pitchers have no control over the run support they are given. As Clemens and Sheets, who have a combined total of two wins in eight starts so far, have proven, you can pitch an incredible game and not get the "W". The fact that Jon Garland has gotten an average of seven runs of offensive support per start doesn't put a damper on his hot start, but it does explain how Garland could be 4-0 despite having inferior numbers to the 1-0 Clemens.
Sheets, meanwhile, hasn't pitched as well as he did in 2003 (30 hits allowed in 27 IP, 3.95 ERA). However, it probably wouldn't matter much if Sheets was posting Clemens-like numbers. In four starts, the Brewers have scored a total of ten runs. Nine of those came on Opening Day, when Sheets got what is still his only win of the season.
Luckily, Joe Morgan isn't reading this Blog. If he was, he's post a comment about how Sheets had a poor season in 2003, when he went 12-14 (and was statistically better than Roger Clemens). At some point, even the biggest hardheads have to realize that the old standards of win/loss for pitchers and batting average for hitters have to be set aside. I'm not a Moneyball guy by any stretch, but it's become blatantly obvious to me that there are better ways to break down players than overrated stats like win/loss record or batting average.
Friday, April 29, 2005
Tuesday, April 26, 2005
NFL Draft Musings
Musings are back. Enjoy. You can leave comments on this site, or e-mail them to me directly.
--> For those who didn't keep track themselves (and why wouldn't you?), I correctly projected seven of the 32 first-round picks. There were four other teams that drafted a player from the position I projected. Not bad, especially when compared to some of the crap you may have seen elsewhere on the internet. This concludes the Barry Horowitz portion of this entry.
--> Some things will always amaze me in the draft, no matter how many times I see them. I don't begrudge San Francisco for taking Alex Smith first overall, even though I still feel Aaron Rodgers is a better player. I think the top five basically fell into form with few surprises, and I think everyone will be happy with their pick. Smith was the biggest reach in the top five, which has to worry the 49ers brass a little bit. He's everything you want a player to be off the field and in the film room, but is he everything you need him to be on the field? Only time will tell. I think Smith would benefit most from sitting behind Tim Rattay for at least half a season. Mike Nolan can't afford to get a somewhat skinny Smith killed behind an atrocious offensive line in his rookie year.
--> I have heard a lot of pros to the pick, but I still don't think I like what the Vikings did with the seventh pick. Troy Williamson, a very good athlete with loads of potential, caught 91 passes in his three-year career at South Carolina. Mike Williams caught 95 passes in 2003. Williamson has track-meet speed, which would be fine if NFL games were played on a track with players in shirts and shorts. Unfortunately for Williamson, NFL games are played on football fields, and Williamson, while showing flashes of brilliance, also made it clear during his college career that he is far from a polished product. The Vikings needed to pick a player who will make an impact as a rookie. Williamson might need a year or two before the light comes on (ala Javon Walker at division rival Green Bay, who emerged as a star in his third year). Williams was the far more polished product and the far safer pick. Considering how close many in the Minnesota organization feel they are to a Super Bowl run, it was puzzling to see them take a chance with the seventh pick. Super Bowl contenders don't often pick in the top half of the first round. When they do, they need to make it count. The Vikings had a golden opportunity to solidify their offense for a huge run in 2005, and it appears they may have passed on that chance.
--> The Vikings' main rival in the division, Green Bay, didn't fare much better in this draft. They caught a break in the first round, when Rodgers inexplicably fell into their laps with the 24th pick. No matter what pundits around the country want you to believe, Green Bay had no choice. Ted Thompson had to make Rodgers his first pick as the Packers' GM because they were never going to find a better prospect to eventually take the snaps in Green Bay once Brett Favre departs. But from that point, their draft fell apart. The Packers took eleven players, and many of them have the potential to be contributors on the team down the line. Thompson, though, didn't get enough immediate help for a soft, porous defense. Unless the Packers believe veteran free agents like Arturo Freeman, Earl Little, and Raynoch Thompson can help make the defense better, they're going to be in trouble unless new coordinator Jim Bates is a miracle worker.
--> S Brock Marion (Detroit) and DE Kenny Mixon (Minnesota) have both been cut by NFC North teams this week. If the Packers are smart, they move to sign at least one of these veteran players, preferably Marion, who could help steady the safety position and provide leadership for fourth-rounder Marviel Underwood, who is one of the only second-day Packer picks that I actually like. Among the other non-first rounders from the two teams, look out for Minnesota second-round OL Marcus Johnson and fourth-round RB Ciatrick Fason, and Green Bay fourth-round DE Brady Poppinga and sixth-round WR Craig Bragg. Of the five running backs now on Minnesota's roster, I think Fason has the best chance to become a reliable full-time back.
--> I think I made it clear in an entry last week. I don't like drafting kickers. I especially don't like the idea of drafting a kicker in the second round, and then cutting the veteran who could have pushed the rookie for a starting job. The New York Jets ignored needs on both sides of the ball to pick Ohio State K Mike Nugent 47th overall. On Sunday, they informed 11-year veteran Doug Brien that he wouldn't be invited back. I don't feel badly for Brien; he'll have a chance to win a job somewhere. I feel badly for Nugent. He now enters camp as the Jets' starting placekicker, and there is no viable competition for the job. In a stadium that's as tough to kick in as Giants Stadium is, it's nonsensical to draft a kicker that early. And now that Nugent won't be pushed for the job, one wonders what the Jets will do if he has a rough training camp or a bad preseason game. Kickers are a dime a dozen, and they're almost impossible to scout. Brien once missed two extra points in one half (indoors!) while playing for the Vikings. Last year, Brien was 11-of-13 from 40 yards and beyond. I don't like labeling players as busts before they ever suit up in the NFL, but Nugent will have to be a Pro Bowler as a rookie to make the New York faithful happy.
--> Why is everyone jumping all over Denver coach Mike Shanahan? Is it surprising that he would pick troubled RB Maurice Clarett in the third round? It was the 101st overall pick. There were at least three teams that were guilty of bigger reaches in that very round than Denver was with Clarett. Denver's system is very friendly to running backs, and Clarett's running style is a good fit for that system. While there were about 200 reasons not to draft Clarett, Shanahan is being unfairly criticized for the pick. If he can salvage a decent career out of Clarett, he'll have accomplished more with this pick than many teams will with third- and fourth-round selections. There's also this: It's the ultimate test for Shanahan's system. Can a running back who was slower in the 40 at the combine than Richie Incognito flourish for the Denver Broncos?
--> I'm not going to grade draft-day performances. Well, at least I'm not going to grade the teams on the job they did drafting players. Here are some thoughts on various people put on TV by ESPN to analyze the draft:
Chris Berman (A)--Solid, as always. Some good stories, another good cab driver anecdote, and commentary when appropriate. I thought he handled the Rodgers story very well.
Chris Mortensen (B+)--Downgraded a bit because of his gushing commentary on Matt Jones, but good information as always. Seems to be developing more of a rapport with...
Mel Kiper (A)--He'd get an A even if I thought he was bad. Anyone who takes the time to break down video on all these players and analyze their NFL prospects has my respect now and forever. I just wish he'd stop posting post-draft grades on ESPN.com when he knows full well that you can't fairly analyze a draft for at least two years.
Torry Holt (C)--Not real fluid, as expected. Not a whole lot of insight. Messed up more than his fair share of player names, including calling the Vikings' starting QB "Daunte Pepper". Looked uncomfortable at times, especially in the second and third rounds. Not a bad effort for a first-timer on that set.
Suzy Kolber (B)--Like Mort, you know what you're getting. Good insight, good questions during interviews, and it looked Alex Smith wanted to lean in for a kiss after going first overall.
Overall (B)--I would have liked more interviews with coaches and executives around the league, and less commentary from players. I respect Jon Jansen, Trent Green, and Mike Vrabel (along with Holt) for going on TV and giving honest opinions, but I really don't care that much about what they think. I'd rather see coaches and execs grilled about their picks. I think that kind of insight makes for high-quality TV.
--> For those who didn't keep track themselves (and why wouldn't you?), I correctly projected seven of the 32 first-round picks. There were four other teams that drafted a player from the position I projected. Not bad, especially when compared to some of the crap you may have seen elsewhere on the internet. This concludes the Barry Horowitz portion of this entry.
--> Some things will always amaze me in the draft, no matter how many times I see them. I don't begrudge San Francisco for taking Alex Smith first overall, even though I still feel Aaron Rodgers is a better player. I think the top five basically fell into form with few surprises, and I think everyone will be happy with their pick. Smith was the biggest reach in the top five, which has to worry the 49ers brass a little bit. He's everything you want a player to be off the field and in the film room, but is he everything you need him to be on the field? Only time will tell. I think Smith would benefit most from sitting behind Tim Rattay for at least half a season. Mike Nolan can't afford to get a somewhat skinny Smith killed behind an atrocious offensive line in his rookie year.
--> I have heard a lot of pros to the pick, but I still don't think I like what the Vikings did with the seventh pick. Troy Williamson, a very good athlete with loads of potential, caught 91 passes in his three-year career at South Carolina. Mike Williams caught 95 passes in 2003. Williamson has track-meet speed, which would be fine if NFL games were played on a track with players in shirts and shorts. Unfortunately for Williamson, NFL games are played on football fields, and Williamson, while showing flashes of brilliance, also made it clear during his college career that he is far from a polished product. The Vikings needed to pick a player who will make an impact as a rookie. Williamson might need a year or two before the light comes on (ala Javon Walker at division rival Green Bay, who emerged as a star in his third year). Williams was the far more polished product and the far safer pick. Considering how close many in the Minnesota organization feel they are to a Super Bowl run, it was puzzling to see them take a chance with the seventh pick. Super Bowl contenders don't often pick in the top half of the first round. When they do, they need to make it count. The Vikings had a golden opportunity to solidify their offense for a huge run in 2005, and it appears they may have passed on that chance.
--> The Vikings' main rival in the division, Green Bay, didn't fare much better in this draft. They caught a break in the first round, when Rodgers inexplicably fell into their laps with the 24th pick. No matter what pundits around the country want you to believe, Green Bay had no choice. Ted Thompson had to make Rodgers his first pick as the Packers' GM because they were never going to find a better prospect to eventually take the snaps in Green Bay once Brett Favre departs. But from that point, their draft fell apart. The Packers took eleven players, and many of them have the potential to be contributors on the team down the line. Thompson, though, didn't get enough immediate help for a soft, porous defense. Unless the Packers believe veteran free agents like Arturo Freeman, Earl Little, and Raynoch Thompson can help make the defense better, they're going to be in trouble unless new coordinator Jim Bates is a miracle worker.
--> S Brock Marion (Detroit) and DE Kenny Mixon (Minnesota) have both been cut by NFC North teams this week. If the Packers are smart, they move to sign at least one of these veteran players, preferably Marion, who could help steady the safety position and provide leadership for fourth-rounder Marviel Underwood, who is one of the only second-day Packer picks that I actually like. Among the other non-first rounders from the two teams, look out for Minnesota second-round OL Marcus Johnson and fourth-round RB Ciatrick Fason, and Green Bay fourth-round DE Brady Poppinga and sixth-round WR Craig Bragg. Of the five running backs now on Minnesota's roster, I think Fason has the best chance to become a reliable full-time back.
--> I think I made it clear in an entry last week. I don't like drafting kickers. I especially don't like the idea of drafting a kicker in the second round, and then cutting the veteran who could have pushed the rookie for a starting job. The New York Jets ignored needs on both sides of the ball to pick Ohio State K Mike Nugent 47th overall. On Sunday, they informed 11-year veteran Doug Brien that he wouldn't be invited back. I don't feel badly for Brien; he'll have a chance to win a job somewhere. I feel badly for Nugent. He now enters camp as the Jets' starting placekicker, and there is no viable competition for the job. In a stadium that's as tough to kick in as Giants Stadium is, it's nonsensical to draft a kicker that early. And now that Nugent won't be pushed for the job, one wonders what the Jets will do if he has a rough training camp or a bad preseason game. Kickers are a dime a dozen, and they're almost impossible to scout. Brien once missed two extra points in one half (indoors!) while playing for the Vikings. Last year, Brien was 11-of-13 from 40 yards and beyond. I don't like labeling players as busts before they ever suit up in the NFL, but Nugent will have to be a Pro Bowler as a rookie to make the New York faithful happy.
--> Why is everyone jumping all over Denver coach Mike Shanahan? Is it surprising that he would pick troubled RB Maurice Clarett in the third round? It was the 101st overall pick. There were at least three teams that were guilty of bigger reaches in that very round than Denver was with Clarett. Denver's system is very friendly to running backs, and Clarett's running style is a good fit for that system. While there were about 200 reasons not to draft Clarett, Shanahan is being unfairly criticized for the pick. If he can salvage a decent career out of Clarett, he'll have accomplished more with this pick than many teams will with third- and fourth-round selections. There's also this: It's the ultimate test for Shanahan's system. Can a running back who was slower in the 40 at the combine than Richie Incognito flourish for the Denver Broncos?
--> I'm not going to grade draft-day performances. Well, at least I'm not going to grade the teams on the job they did drafting players. Here are some thoughts on various people put on TV by ESPN to analyze the draft:
Chris Berman (A)--Solid, as always. Some good stories, another good cab driver anecdote, and commentary when appropriate. I thought he handled the Rodgers story very well.
Chris Mortensen (B+)--Downgraded a bit because of his gushing commentary on Matt Jones, but good information as always. Seems to be developing more of a rapport with...
Mel Kiper (A)--He'd get an A even if I thought he was bad. Anyone who takes the time to break down video on all these players and analyze their NFL prospects has my respect now and forever. I just wish he'd stop posting post-draft grades on ESPN.com when he knows full well that you can't fairly analyze a draft for at least two years.
Torry Holt (C)--Not real fluid, as expected. Not a whole lot of insight. Messed up more than his fair share of player names, including calling the Vikings' starting QB "Daunte Pepper". Looked uncomfortable at times, especially in the second and third rounds. Not a bad effort for a first-timer on that set.
Suzy Kolber (B)--Like Mort, you know what you're getting. Good insight, good questions during interviews, and it looked Alex Smith wanted to lean in for a kiss after going first overall.
Overall (B)--I would have liked more interviews with coaches and executives around the league, and less commentary from players. I respect Jon Jansen, Trent Green, and Mike Vrabel (along with Holt) for going on TV and giving honest opinions, but I really don't care that much about what they think. I'd rather see coaches and execs grilled about their picks. I think that kind of insight makes for high-quality TV.
Wednesday, April 20, 2005
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Mock Draft Version 2.0
1. San Francisco – Alex Smith, QB, Utah. . Word is the 49ers want Alex Smith, but signability concerns might send them back to Rodgers. The team denies that signability will be a factor, so we'll make the call that Smith is the pick. Smith has the smarts, field vision, and quick release necessary, and even though his arm isn't particularly strong, it's strong enough to be an NFL starter when you consider his intangibles.
2. Miami – Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn. The Dolphins, under new coach Nick Saban, know that they have to upgrade at running back, especially if they’re still serious about employing A.J. Feeley at quarterback. Brown's size and speed are outstanding, and he’ll be the workhorse back the Dolphins lacked last year after Ricky Williams left abruptly before training camp. Talk of a Williams comeback and a QB pick here is probably not more than a smokescreen coming from Saban.
3. Cleveland – Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan. The Browns will try to shed years of bad drafts with this pick. New GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennell are under a lot of pressure with this pick. Edwards is the safest pick on the board, as he is the top-rated player for many teams, and he is the playmaking wideout that the Browns are lacking. Expect them to go after a quarterback in the second round if they pass on Smith.
4. Chicago – Cedric Benson, RB, Texas. If Edwards were still available, the Bears would pounce. However, they don't need Mike Williams because he isn't the vertical threat they'd like to have opposite new starting wideout Muhsin Muhammad. The Bears can use this pick to upgrade their running attack, which is led by the inconsistent and injury-prone Thomas Jones. Benson is a workhorse back that would benefit from platoon duty early in his career after carrying the ball 600 or so times the past two years at Texas.
5. Tampa Bay – Aaron Rodgers, QB, California. Jon Gruden has been eyeing Carnell Williams since he coached the kid in the Senior Bowl. But he can't afford to pass on a chance to draft a franchise quarterback. The Buccaneers aren't particularly high on Brian Griese as the future of the franchise, but his presence would allow Rodgers to learn the system and adjust to the pro game before being thrust into the starting role. Rodgers has a strong arm, makes quick decisions, and is a good fit for the West Coast offense.
6. Tennessee – Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia. Like the quarterbacks at the top of the board, not much separates the top two cornerbacks. Both Jones and Miami’s Antrel Rolle have good speed, cover skills, and both can help immediately as dynamic return men. I’ll put Jones a bit higher because he’s less physical in coverage but still more than willing to help out against the run. Tennessee lost starting corner Samari Rolle and might lose Andre Dyson in free agency, so Jones could start immediately for the Titans opposite Andre Woolfolk. If Dyson re-signs, Jones can assume a role covering slot receivers in his rookie year.
7. Minnesota – Mike Williams, WR, Southern California. After trading Randy Moss to Oakland and acquiring this pick, speculation began to run rampant about the Vikings drafting Williams. Unless the Vikings have an inflated view of Travis Taylor, they haven’t acquired a number one receiver to replace Moss. Williams is the closest thing to that left on the board. His size (6’5”) and hands make him an attractive option for a team that just spent seven years throwing to the 6’4” Moss. He's a better downfield threat than many teams think, and the Vikings could be adding to a history of draft-day blunders if they pass up on him.
8. Arizona – Carnell Williams, RB, Auburn. This pick will change if the Cardinals are able to acquire Travis Henry from Buffalo. For now, though, they need a running back. Williams is the best back left on the board, and he might be more ready to start than college teammate Brown. He’s not as accomplished a receiver as the Brown, but he’s more than adequate in that area. If the Cardinals acquire Henry before the draft, look for them to pick up Antrel Rolle or Carlos Rogers with this pick.
9. Washington – Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami-FL. The Redskins will take either of the top two corners on the board. After losing Fred Smoot in free agency, the team knows they have to upgrade at that position. They need a guy who can excel in man coverage as well as run support, something that isn’t a strength for returning starter Shawn Springs. Rolle would start opposite Springs, and he will give the team a physical presence on the outside while also providing a dynamic kick-return threat.
10. Detroit – Alex Barron, OT, Florida State. The Lions need a new starting right tackle, as Stockar McDougle left for Miami in free agency. While the defense also has holes, the Lions need to shore up this position, and they haven’t gotten it done in free agency. Barron is the best lineman in this draft. He needs to be more physical and more consistent, but he has the potential to become a Pro Bowl player. Arguments can be made for the Lions to draft a pass-rush threat or LB Derrick Johnson, but tackle is the most immediate need this team has, and it's one of the weakest positions in the draft. Barron is good enough to start right away, but no one who will be available for Detroit later on is.
11. Dallas – Demarcus Ware, DE/OLB, Troy. The Cowboys crave a player who can get to the quarterback from the edge. Ware has flashed great speed and pass-rush instincts. His athleticism will be a welcome addition to the Cowboys' defense, and he has a chance to develop into an every-down linebacker. Ware has shot up draft boards recently, and should go in the first half of the first round.
12. San Diego – Shawne Merriman, DE/OLB, Maryland. The Chargers are in need of help with a pass rush that produced only 29 sacks last season. The 3-4 defense is a great fit for a player like Merriman. Merriman might not be an every-down defensive end, but he has the size to play from a down lineman position and still be productive, and he can also rush as a linebacker out of the 3-4.
13. Houston – Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas. The Texans view outside linebacker as a pressing need, as they would like to move Kailee Wong inside after cutting Jamie Sharper. To do that, they have to upgrade on the outside, and Johnson is a perfect fit. He has the ability to get to the quarterback from the edge, and he can also drop back into coverage without looking lost. Johnson needs to improve as a tackler, and he sometimes has trouble when teams run right at him, but the Texans would love to add his speed and instincts to their defense.
14. Carolina – Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina. Wide receiver is a need, as is the running back position. However, Williamson is the best prospect on the board, and even though he's a bit of a project, Carolina will take the chance. Williamson is a great athlete who fits in as a vertical threat in Carolina's offense, and he has the upside to become a starter in a hurry if he develops his route-running skills.
15. Kansas City – Marcus Spears, DE. LSU. The Chiefs shouldn’t even be allowed to draft offensive players. They have too many needs on defense. One of those needs is an every-down defensive end. They traded for former Tennessee Titan Carlos Hall, but still need to get better. Spears is a bit of a 'tweener, but he is versatile enough to play every down, and he might be the best defensive end in the draft when it comes to his ability against the run.
16. New Orleans – Thomas Davis, S, Georgia. Davis is a perfect fit for the Saints' needs, which are primarily safety and outside linebacker. Davis can play both, and many teams have projected him as an outside linebacker because of his size and run-stuffing ability. Davis isn't a liability in coverage, so the Saints will have the luxury of playing him at the position where he fits the best at the NFL level.
17. Cincinnati – Carlos Rogers, CB, LSU. As the Bengals look up at Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the AFC North, they probably notice one huge discrepancy between the three teams. The Steelers and Ravens have top-notch defenses, while the Bengals were not a good defensive team in 2004. Rogers would be a gift here for Marvin Lewis, a defensive-minded coach who needs to improve the defense on a team that features emerging QB Carson Palmer.
18. Minnesota – David Pollack, DE, Georgia. Minnesota has done a great job in free agency, signing Fred Smoot and Darren Sharper to help in the secondary, Pat Williams at defensive tackle, and acquiring Napoleon Harris and Sam Cowart at linebacker. Kenechi Udeze was a bit of a disappointment last year as a pass-rusher, and Lance Johnstone isn’t durable enough to be counted on, so the Vikings still need a defensive end that can pressure from the outside. While there are better pure pass-rushers in the draft, the Vikings will stick with the best prospect available.
19. St. Louis – Jamaal Brown, OT, Oklahoma. Even if Kyle Turley (back problems) is healthy, it’s hard to imagine he’ll return to play for a coach that he allegedly threatened to kill. With that in mind, the Rams need to find a new starting right tackle. Brown is raw and there are questions about how quickly he will pick up the techniques he needs to learn. But he’s experienced as a right tackle, and he has excellent footwork in pass blocking. There is risk here, but Brown is the best prospect at a position of need for the Rams.
20. Dallas – Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin. The Cowboys need to continue upgrading their defense. James has fallen some on a few boards because of subpar workouts and durability concerns, but he is one of the top pass rushers in the draft. Ware and James would work as a great tandem in the Cowboys' front seven as they adjust to a 3-4 defense. James is big enough to sustain himself against the run, and he is impressive going upfield at the quarterback.
21. Jacksonville – Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington. The Jaguars have Mike Pearson, but his availability for 2005 is up in the air after he suffered a serious knee injury last season. Without him, the Jaguars’ lack of depth is exposed. Barnes has been rising on some draft boards despite some concerns over his durability and work ethic. He had a broken wrist in 2004, but was having a strong season until the injury. He has good fundamentals and is very light on his feet.
22. Baltimore – Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State. Defensive tackle isn't as big a need for the Ravens as other positions are, but Johnson is too good of a value to pass up. Despite character concerns, Johnson would be a steal for Baltimore with this pick. He's a big, disruptive defensive tackle who wouldn't have to start right away, but would be a key contributor in the Ravens' rotation.
23. Seattle – Dan Cody, DE, Oklahoma. The team filled a major need at cornerback on Thursday, signing free-agent Andre Dyson to a five-year deal. Now, they can turn their attention to the defensive line. The Seahawks need to get younger and more athletic at this position, and Cody brings a lot of speed to the table. He is taking medication to deal with clinical depression, and that has turned some teams off on him, but he is a good value with this pick.
24. Green Bay – Matt Roth, DE, Iowa. The Packers are looking for another defensive end who can get upfield. Aaron Kampman is adequate against the run, but doesn’t give the Packers much of a pass-rush threat. New defensive coordinator Jim Bates wants athletic ends who can get to the quarterback. Roth is a good pass-rusher who has better overall skills than most people think, and he plays with a mean streak. His attitude would be a great fit on a Packers defensive line that played way too soft at times last year.
25. Washington – Roddy White, WR, UAB. In a pick acquired this week from Denver, Joe Gibbs will likely target his offense. The Redskins need a player who can be a threat vertically, and White can do that with his speed and jumping ability. A tandem of White and Santana Moss on the outside could make the Redskins' passing game much more lethal.
26. Oakland – Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma. The Raiders got this pick in a pre-draft deal with the Jets. It's possible that they'll use this pick to add some depth to their defensive line, but Pool is a good value at another position of need. He has excellent ball skills and is solid in zone coverage. Pool is a smart player who can contribute immediately as a “center fielder” type of safety. He has underrated ability in run support, but isn’t overly physical or intimidating.
27. Atlanta – Luis Castillo, DT, Northwestern. The Falcons need a run-plugging tackle to add to their rotation, and Castillo is a good fit. He's hard to move around at the point of attack, and he flashes some upfield mobility. His steroid test was a turnoff for some, but not for others, as some teams appreciated his candidness in dealing with the issue. Many appear ready to write it off as a mistake made that won't be repeated. Castillo is a smart player who is a first-rounder on many teams' boards.
28. San Diego – Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma. The Chargers are a safe bet to go offense/defense with their two first rounders, assuming they keep both picks. They can't pass up on Merriman with the earlier pick if he's available, and they can't pass on Clayton here. Clayton is undersized, but is the most polished wideout in the draft. He possesses great route-running skills, great hands, and shows good burst and elusiveness after the catch.
29. Indianapolis – Heath Miller, TE, Virginia*. The Colts lost Marcus Pollard in free agency, putting the pressure on Dallas Clark to produce as the team’s top tight end. At this point, Clark is the only tight end on the roster with any significant experience. Miller is a player rated much higher on many draft boards, and the Colts won’t be able to pass him up here, despite their plethora of defensive needs. Miller has great hands and would be a perfect fit in the Colts’ wide-open offense.
30. Pittsburgh – Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska. Thanks to free-agency losses and salary cap cuts, Pittsburgh has some holes to fill on defense. There is talk that they will sign Ty Law once he's healthy, but it's no guarantee that Law will sign, or that he could go for 16 games as an everydown player. Washington has great potential, and he would make a good nickel corner in his rookie season while he learns how to use his 4.29 speed to become an even better player.
31. Philadelphia – Shaun Cody, DE, Southern California. Cody has plenty of potential, and he certainly is the kind of nonstop-motor player teams like to have on the defensive line, but there is concern over his status as a 'tweener. Even with that in mind, it's hard to imagine a player of Cody's talents falling completely out of the first round. Matt Jones will be tempting here for Philly, but it's too much of a reach to take such a developmental prospect in the first round.
32. New England – Barrett Ruud, LB, Nebraska. New England is unpredictable. They have some needs, namely cornerback, linebacker, and offensive line depth. Ruud has the look of a Patriot. He's a heady player who has good character and leadership skills. And, by the way, he's one of the most efficient tacklers in this draft.
2. Miami – Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn. The Dolphins, under new coach Nick Saban, know that they have to upgrade at running back, especially if they’re still serious about employing A.J. Feeley at quarterback. Brown's size and speed are outstanding, and he’ll be the workhorse back the Dolphins lacked last year after Ricky Williams left abruptly before training camp. Talk of a Williams comeback and a QB pick here is probably not more than a smokescreen coming from Saban.
3. Cleveland – Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan. The Browns will try to shed years of bad drafts with this pick. New GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennell are under a lot of pressure with this pick. Edwards is the safest pick on the board, as he is the top-rated player for many teams, and he is the playmaking wideout that the Browns are lacking. Expect them to go after a quarterback in the second round if they pass on Smith.
4. Chicago – Cedric Benson, RB, Texas. If Edwards were still available, the Bears would pounce. However, they don't need Mike Williams because he isn't the vertical threat they'd like to have opposite new starting wideout Muhsin Muhammad. The Bears can use this pick to upgrade their running attack, which is led by the inconsistent and injury-prone Thomas Jones. Benson is a workhorse back that would benefit from platoon duty early in his career after carrying the ball 600 or so times the past two years at Texas.
5. Tampa Bay – Aaron Rodgers, QB, California. Jon Gruden has been eyeing Carnell Williams since he coached the kid in the Senior Bowl. But he can't afford to pass on a chance to draft a franchise quarterback. The Buccaneers aren't particularly high on Brian Griese as the future of the franchise, but his presence would allow Rodgers to learn the system and adjust to the pro game before being thrust into the starting role. Rodgers has a strong arm, makes quick decisions, and is a good fit for the West Coast offense.
6. Tennessee – Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia. Like the quarterbacks at the top of the board, not much separates the top two cornerbacks. Both Jones and Miami’s Antrel Rolle have good speed, cover skills, and both can help immediately as dynamic return men. I’ll put Jones a bit higher because he’s less physical in coverage but still more than willing to help out against the run. Tennessee lost starting corner Samari Rolle and might lose Andre Dyson in free agency, so Jones could start immediately for the Titans opposite Andre Woolfolk. If Dyson re-signs, Jones can assume a role covering slot receivers in his rookie year.
7. Minnesota – Mike Williams, WR, Southern California. After trading Randy Moss to Oakland and acquiring this pick, speculation began to run rampant about the Vikings drafting Williams. Unless the Vikings have an inflated view of Travis Taylor, they haven’t acquired a number one receiver to replace Moss. Williams is the closest thing to that left on the board. His size (6’5”) and hands make him an attractive option for a team that just spent seven years throwing to the 6’4” Moss. He's a better downfield threat than many teams think, and the Vikings could be adding to a history of draft-day blunders if they pass up on him.
8. Arizona – Carnell Williams, RB, Auburn. This pick will change if the Cardinals are able to acquire Travis Henry from Buffalo. For now, though, they need a running back. Williams is the best back left on the board, and he might be more ready to start than college teammate Brown. He’s not as accomplished a receiver as the Brown, but he’s more than adequate in that area. If the Cardinals acquire Henry before the draft, look for them to pick up Antrel Rolle or Carlos Rogers with this pick.
9. Washington – Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami-FL. The Redskins will take either of the top two corners on the board. After losing Fred Smoot in free agency, the team knows they have to upgrade at that position. They need a guy who can excel in man coverage as well as run support, something that isn’t a strength for returning starter Shawn Springs. Rolle would start opposite Springs, and he will give the team a physical presence on the outside while also providing a dynamic kick-return threat.
10. Detroit – Alex Barron, OT, Florida State. The Lions need a new starting right tackle, as Stockar McDougle left for Miami in free agency. While the defense also has holes, the Lions need to shore up this position, and they haven’t gotten it done in free agency. Barron is the best lineman in this draft. He needs to be more physical and more consistent, but he has the potential to become a Pro Bowl player. Arguments can be made for the Lions to draft a pass-rush threat or LB Derrick Johnson, but tackle is the most immediate need this team has, and it's one of the weakest positions in the draft. Barron is good enough to start right away, but no one who will be available for Detroit later on is.
11. Dallas – Demarcus Ware, DE/OLB, Troy. The Cowboys crave a player who can get to the quarterback from the edge. Ware has flashed great speed and pass-rush instincts. His athleticism will be a welcome addition to the Cowboys' defense, and he has a chance to develop into an every-down linebacker. Ware has shot up draft boards recently, and should go in the first half of the first round.
12. San Diego – Shawne Merriman, DE/OLB, Maryland. The Chargers are in need of help with a pass rush that produced only 29 sacks last season. The 3-4 defense is a great fit for a player like Merriman. Merriman might not be an every-down defensive end, but he has the size to play from a down lineman position and still be productive, and he can also rush as a linebacker out of the 3-4.
13. Houston – Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas. The Texans view outside linebacker as a pressing need, as they would like to move Kailee Wong inside after cutting Jamie Sharper. To do that, they have to upgrade on the outside, and Johnson is a perfect fit. He has the ability to get to the quarterback from the edge, and he can also drop back into coverage without looking lost. Johnson needs to improve as a tackler, and he sometimes has trouble when teams run right at him, but the Texans would love to add his speed and instincts to their defense.
14. Carolina – Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina. Wide receiver is a need, as is the running back position. However, Williamson is the best prospect on the board, and even though he's a bit of a project, Carolina will take the chance. Williamson is a great athlete who fits in as a vertical threat in Carolina's offense, and he has the upside to become a starter in a hurry if he develops his route-running skills.
15. Kansas City – Marcus Spears, DE. LSU. The Chiefs shouldn’t even be allowed to draft offensive players. They have too many needs on defense. One of those needs is an every-down defensive end. They traded for former Tennessee Titan Carlos Hall, but still need to get better. Spears is a bit of a 'tweener, but he is versatile enough to play every down, and he might be the best defensive end in the draft when it comes to his ability against the run.
16. New Orleans – Thomas Davis, S, Georgia. Davis is a perfect fit for the Saints' needs, which are primarily safety and outside linebacker. Davis can play both, and many teams have projected him as an outside linebacker because of his size and run-stuffing ability. Davis isn't a liability in coverage, so the Saints will have the luxury of playing him at the position where he fits the best at the NFL level.
17. Cincinnati – Carlos Rogers, CB, LSU. As the Bengals look up at Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the AFC North, they probably notice one huge discrepancy between the three teams. The Steelers and Ravens have top-notch defenses, while the Bengals were not a good defensive team in 2004. Rogers would be a gift here for Marvin Lewis, a defensive-minded coach who needs to improve the defense on a team that features emerging QB Carson Palmer.
18. Minnesota – David Pollack, DE, Georgia. Minnesota has done a great job in free agency, signing Fred Smoot and Darren Sharper to help in the secondary, Pat Williams at defensive tackle, and acquiring Napoleon Harris and Sam Cowart at linebacker. Kenechi Udeze was a bit of a disappointment last year as a pass-rusher, and Lance Johnstone isn’t durable enough to be counted on, so the Vikings still need a defensive end that can pressure from the outside. While there are better pure pass-rushers in the draft, the Vikings will stick with the best prospect available.
19. St. Louis – Jamaal Brown, OT, Oklahoma. Even if Kyle Turley (back problems) is healthy, it’s hard to imagine he’ll return to play for a coach that he allegedly threatened to kill. With that in mind, the Rams need to find a new starting right tackle. Brown is raw and there are questions about how quickly he will pick up the techniques he needs to learn. But he’s experienced as a right tackle, and he has excellent footwork in pass blocking. There is risk here, but Brown is the best prospect at a position of need for the Rams.
20. Dallas – Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin. The Cowboys need to continue upgrading their defense. James has fallen some on a few boards because of subpar workouts and durability concerns, but he is one of the top pass rushers in the draft. Ware and James would work as a great tandem in the Cowboys' front seven as they adjust to a 3-4 defense. James is big enough to sustain himself against the run, and he is impressive going upfield at the quarterback.
21. Jacksonville – Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington. The Jaguars have Mike Pearson, but his availability for 2005 is up in the air after he suffered a serious knee injury last season. Without him, the Jaguars’ lack of depth is exposed. Barnes has been rising on some draft boards despite some concerns over his durability and work ethic. He had a broken wrist in 2004, but was having a strong season until the injury. He has good fundamentals and is very light on his feet.
22. Baltimore – Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State. Defensive tackle isn't as big a need for the Ravens as other positions are, but Johnson is too good of a value to pass up. Despite character concerns, Johnson would be a steal for Baltimore with this pick. He's a big, disruptive defensive tackle who wouldn't have to start right away, but would be a key contributor in the Ravens' rotation.
23. Seattle – Dan Cody, DE, Oklahoma. The team filled a major need at cornerback on Thursday, signing free-agent Andre Dyson to a five-year deal. Now, they can turn their attention to the defensive line. The Seahawks need to get younger and more athletic at this position, and Cody brings a lot of speed to the table. He is taking medication to deal with clinical depression, and that has turned some teams off on him, but he is a good value with this pick.
24. Green Bay – Matt Roth, DE, Iowa. The Packers are looking for another defensive end who can get upfield. Aaron Kampman is adequate against the run, but doesn’t give the Packers much of a pass-rush threat. New defensive coordinator Jim Bates wants athletic ends who can get to the quarterback. Roth is a good pass-rusher who has better overall skills than most people think, and he plays with a mean streak. His attitude would be a great fit on a Packers defensive line that played way too soft at times last year.
25. Washington – Roddy White, WR, UAB. In a pick acquired this week from Denver, Joe Gibbs will likely target his offense. The Redskins need a player who can be a threat vertically, and White can do that with his speed and jumping ability. A tandem of White and Santana Moss on the outside could make the Redskins' passing game much more lethal.
26. Oakland – Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma. The Raiders got this pick in a pre-draft deal with the Jets. It's possible that they'll use this pick to add some depth to their defensive line, but Pool is a good value at another position of need. He has excellent ball skills and is solid in zone coverage. Pool is a smart player who can contribute immediately as a “center fielder” type of safety. He has underrated ability in run support, but isn’t overly physical or intimidating.
27. Atlanta – Luis Castillo, DT, Northwestern. The Falcons need a run-plugging tackle to add to their rotation, and Castillo is a good fit. He's hard to move around at the point of attack, and he flashes some upfield mobility. His steroid test was a turnoff for some, but not for others, as some teams appreciated his candidness in dealing with the issue. Many appear ready to write it off as a mistake made that won't be repeated. Castillo is a smart player who is a first-rounder on many teams' boards.
28. San Diego – Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma. The Chargers are a safe bet to go offense/defense with their two first rounders, assuming they keep both picks. They can't pass up on Merriman with the earlier pick if he's available, and they can't pass on Clayton here. Clayton is undersized, but is the most polished wideout in the draft. He possesses great route-running skills, great hands, and shows good burst and elusiveness after the catch.
29. Indianapolis – Heath Miller, TE, Virginia*. The Colts lost Marcus Pollard in free agency, putting the pressure on Dallas Clark to produce as the team’s top tight end. At this point, Clark is the only tight end on the roster with any significant experience. Miller is a player rated much higher on many draft boards, and the Colts won’t be able to pass him up here, despite their plethora of defensive needs. Miller has great hands and would be a perfect fit in the Colts’ wide-open offense.
30. Pittsburgh – Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska. Thanks to free-agency losses and salary cap cuts, Pittsburgh has some holes to fill on defense. There is talk that they will sign Ty Law once he's healthy, but it's no guarantee that Law will sign, or that he could go for 16 games as an everydown player. Washington has great potential, and he would make a good nickel corner in his rookie season while he learns how to use his 4.29 speed to become an even better player.
31. Philadelphia – Shaun Cody, DE, Southern California. Cody has plenty of potential, and he certainly is the kind of nonstop-motor player teams like to have on the defensive line, but there is concern over his status as a 'tweener. Even with that in mind, it's hard to imagine a player of Cody's talents falling completely out of the first round. Matt Jones will be tempting here for Philly, but it's too much of a reach to take such a developmental prospect in the first round.
32. New England – Barrett Ruud, LB, Nebraska. New England is unpredictable. They have some needs, namely cornerback, linebacker, and offensive line depth. Ruud has the look of a Patriot. He's a heady player who has good character and leadership skills. And, by the way, he's one of the most efficient tacklers in this draft.
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Kickers/Punters
This won't take long.
There is rarely a player at either position worth drafting on the first day. Past picks of players like B.J. Sander have shown this to be the case. This year might be an exception thanks to Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent. He projects as a possible third-round pick, though teams with other needs are foolish to draft a kicker that early. There is too much bust potential in young kickers. I see Nugent and top punter Dustin Colquitt of Tennessee as fifth-round picks. Michigan State kicker Dave Rayner might be worth a late pick, along with Minnesota's Rhys Lloyd. Other punters who could be drafted include Ball State's Reggie Hodge, along with Bryce Benekos of Texas-El Paso.
Overall, though, kickers and punters are better suited as free-agent prospects after the draft. Teams that draft these positions are taking a chance that they might end up with a wasted pick.
There is rarely a player at either position worth drafting on the first day. Past picks of players like B.J. Sander have shown this to be the case. This year might be an exception thanks to Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent. He projects as a possible third-round pick, though teams with other needs are foolish to draft a kicker that early. There is too much bust potential in young kickers. I see Nugent and top punter Dustin Colquitt of Tennessee as fifth-round picks. Michigan State kicker Dave Rayner might be worth a late pick, along with Minnesota's Rhys Lloyd. Other punters who could be drafted include Ball State's Reggie Hodge, along with Bryce Benekos of Texas-El Paso.
Overall, though, kickers and punters are better suited as free-agent prospects after the draft. Teams that draft these positions are taking a chance that they might end up with a wasted pick.
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Defensive backs
There are a number of first-round prospects in this class. I'll profile the top three, and take a look at some other interesting prospects.
Cornerbacks
Top dogs
1. Adam Jones, West Virginia. "Pac-Man" is undersized, and he caused some concern by scoring an underwhelming 13 on the Wonderlic, but Jones is ready for the NFL. His coverage skills are excellent, and he has the speed and athleticism to overcome a lack of height and bulk. He does a great job locating and closing on the ball, and he also has tremendous ability as a kick returner. Jones doesn't have the ideal size of an NFL cornerback, but his cover skills and kick-return ability will make him the first cornerback off the board. Projected: 1st round.
2. Antrel Rolle, Miami. Bigger and stronger than Jones, Rolle is another solid prospect. He has good cover skills, solid speed for his size, and is very good at locating the ball in the air and going after it. Rolle is a more physical player in coverage than Jones, which might cause some concern because of the NFL's recent crackdown on illegal downfield contact. He's also not as fluid in man coverage as Jones is. The two are virtually interchangeable, but I rate Jones a little bit higher. Rolle, though, has great potential in the NFL. Projected: 1st round.
3. Carlos Rogers, Auburn. Rogers is the forgotten player of this class. He has good size and is a physical player at the line of scrimmage. He's a willing participant in run support who can get the job done, and he also has the speed to make plays downfield. He's not as fluid in coverage as Rolle or Jones, and his college career was a bit inconsistent. His size and strength, along with more-than-adequate speed, make Rogers an intriguing prospect who could quickly become a solid NFL starter. Projected: 1st round.
Sleeper
Corey Webster, LSU. Good athlete with tremendous downfield coverage ability. He has a 39-inch vertical, long arms, and has shown very good ball skills downfield. Webster doesn't have ideal top-end speed, but makes up for it with his fundamentals and aggressiveness in coverage. There are concerns, as Webster had nagging leg and foot injuries that set him back in 2004, and he only scored a 12 on the Wonderlic. Webster has a chance to be a solid pro if he can stay healthy and overcome a lack of elite speed. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Overrated
Brandon Browner, Oregon State. Browner is a good athlete for his size. The tallest corner in the class, Browner has shown some good coverage skills, especially in press coverage, and he is a physical player who is strong in run support. Browner isn't a factor in zone coverage, and he is not a fluid athlete; he will be susceptible to double-moves by faster NFL receivers. Browner's size virtually ensures that he will come off the board by the middle of the second round, but he might have trouble developing into more than a role player. Projected: 2nd round.
Other notables
Fabian Washington, Nebraska - 1st round
Marlin Jackson, Michigan - 1st or 2nd round
Justin Miller, Clemson - 1st or 2nd round
Bryant McFadden, Florida State - 3rd round
Stanley Wilson, Stanford - 3rd or 4th round
Scott Starks, Wisconsin - 4th round
Ronald Bartell, Howard - 4th or 5th round
Safeties
Top dogs
1. Thomas Davis, Georgia. A tremendously physical player at the line of scrimmage, Davis is the best safety on the board, and he has the skill to eventually move to linebacker if he gets bigger. Davis is a solid open-field hitter and is better in coverage than a lot of people think. He needs work in man coverage, because he does sometimes get lost against quicker receivers. He has good range in zone coverage, and he locates the ball well. Davis should be the first safety off the board, and he could start in a hurry if he goes to the right team. Projected: 1st round.
2. Brodney Pool, Oklahoma. Unlike Davis, Pool is best suited as a "centerfield" safety. He has great sideline-to-sideline range and locates the ball as well as any safety in the class. Pool is a bit of a liability against the run because he's not as physical as he needs to be, and he doesn't do a very good job of shedding blockers. But Pool's ball skills make him an attractive prospect. He won't be ready to start right away, but should contribute immediately in nickel and dime packages. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
3. Ernest Shazor, Michigan. Shazor is an intimidating force in the secondary. He hits hard everywhere on the field, but is better against the run. He is hard to block. He does a good job diagnosing run plays and explodes into the ball carrier. Shazor is not a fluid athlete and he struggles in coverage, especially when he's one-on-one with slot receivers. Shazor would work well coverage-oriented safeties that would allow him to play closer to the line of scrimmage and blitz on occasion. Projected: 2nd round.
Sleeper
Oshiomogho Atogwe, Stanford. Atogwe is an interesting prospect because of his playmaking skills. He had nine interceptions, 11 forced fumbles and seven fumble recoveries in three years as a starter while leading Stanford in tackles each year. He's not a real big hitter, and he lacks the athleticism of other prospects, but Atogwe's work ethic, understanding of the game, and his playmaking skills make him a good candidate to come off the board late in the first day, and he has a chance to become a starter. Projected: 3rd round.
Overrated
Sean Considine, Iowa. Considine has some ability. He has decent size and good straight-line speed. Considine plays bigger than he is, and he's a big factor in run defense because of his reliability as a tackler. He needs to improve his recognition skills, and he has to take better angles in the open field because he doesn't have the pure speed to run guys down. Considine is a decent prospect, but his lack of experience and questionable coverage skills, along with a lack of size, should relegate him to the second day. Projected: 3rd round.
Other notables
Josh Bullocks, Nebraska - 2nd or 3rd round
Vincent Fuller, Virginia Tech - 3rd round
Dustin Fox, Ohio State - 4th round
Kerry Rhodes, Louisville - 4th or 5th round
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin - 5th round
Matt Grootegoed, Southern California - 6th round
Cornerbacks
Top dogs
1. Adam Jones, West Virginia. "Pac-Man" is undersized, and he caused some concern by scoring an underwhelming 13 on the Wonderlic, but Jones is ready for the NFL. His coverage skills are excellent, and he has the speed and athleticism to overcome a lack of height and bulk. He does a great job locating and closing on the ball, and he also has tremendous ability as a kick returner. Jones doesn't have the ideal size of an NFL cornerback, but his cover skills and kick-return ability will make him the first cornerback off the board. Projected: 1st round.
2. Antrel Rolle, Miami. Bigger and stronger than Jones, Rolle is another solid prospect. He has good cover skills, solid speed for his size, and is very good at locating the ball in the air and going after it. Rolle is a more physical player in coverage than Jones, which might cause some concern because of the NFL's recent crackdown on illegal downfield contact. He's also not as fluid in man coverage as Jones is. The two are virtually interchangeable, but I rate Jones a little bit higher. Rolle, though, has great potential in the NFL. Projected: 1st round.
3. Carlos Rogers, Auburn. Rogers is the forgotten player of this class. He has good size and is a physical player at the line of scrimmage. He's a willing participant in run support who can get the job done, and he also has the speed to make plays downfield. He's not as fluid in coverage as Rolle or Jones, and his college career was a bit inconsistent. His size and strength, along with more-than-adequate speed, make Rogers an intriguing prospect who could quickly become a solid NFL starter. Projected: 1st round.
Sleeper
Corey Webster, LSU. Good athlete with tremendous downfield coverage ability. He has a 39-inch vertical, long arms, and has shown very good ball skills downfield. Webster doesn't have ideal top-end speed, but makes up for it with his fundamentals and aggressiveness in coverage. There are concerns, as Webster had nagging leg and foot injuries that set him back in 2004, and he only scored a 12 on the Wonderlic. Webster has a chance to be a solid pro if he can stay healthy and overcome a lack of elite speed. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Overrated
Brandon Browner, Oregon State. Browner is a good athlete for his size. The tallest corner in the class, Browner has shown some good coverage skills, especially in press coverage, and he is a physical player who is strong in run support. Browner isn't a factor in zone coverage, and he is not a fluid athlete; he will be susceptible to double-moves by faster NFL receivers. Browner's size virtually ensures that he will come off the board by the middle of the second round, but he might have trouble developing into more than a role player. Projected: 2nd round.
Other notables
Fabian Washington, Nebraska - 1st round
Marlin Jackson, Michigan - 1st or 2nd round
Justin Miller, Clemson - 1st or 2nd round
Bryant McFadden, Florida State - 3rd round
Stanley Wilson, Stanford - 3rd or 4th round
Scott Starks, Wisconsin - 4th round
Ronald Bartell, Howard - 4th or 5th round
Safeties
Top dogs
1. Thomas Davis, Georgia. A tremendously physical player at the line of scrimmage, Davis is the best safety on the board, and he has the skill to eventually move to linebacker if he gets bigger. Davis is a solid open-field hitter and is better in coverage than a lot of people think. He needs work in man coverage, because he does sometimes get lost against quicker receivers. He has good range in zone coverage, and he locates the ball well. Davis should be the first safety off the board, and he could start in a hurry if he goes to the right team. Projected: 1st round.
2. Brodney Pool, Oklahoma. Unlike Davis, Pool is best suited as a "centerfield" safety. He has great sideline-to-sideline range and locates the ball as well as any safety in the class. Pool is a bit of a liability against the run because he's not as physical as he needs to be, and he doesn't do a very good job of shedding blockers. But Pool's ball skills make him an attractive prospect. He won't be ready to start right away, but should contribute immediately in nickel and dime packages. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
3. Ernest Shazor, Michigan. Shazor is an intimidating force in the secondary. He hits hard everywhere on the field, but is better against the run. He is hard to block. He does a good job diagnosing run plays and explodes into the ball carrier. Shazor is not a fluid athlete and he struggles in coverage, especially when he's one-on-one with slot receivers. Shazor would work well coverage-oriented safeties that would allow him to play closer to the line of scrimmage and blitz on occasion. Projected: 2nd round.
Sleeper
Oshiomogho Atogwe, Stanford. Atogwe is an interesting prospect because of his playmaking skills. He had nine interceptions, 11 forced fumbles and seven fumble recoveries in three years as a starter while leading Stanford in tackles each year. He's not a real big hitter, and he lacks the athleticism of other prospects, but Atogwe's work ethic, understanding of the game, and his playmaking skills make him a good candidate to come off the board late in the first day, and he has a chance to become a starter. Projected: 3rd round.
Overrated
Sean Considine, Iowa. Considine has some ability. He has decent size and good straight-line speed. Considine plays bigger than he is, and he's a big factor in run defense because of his reliability as a tackler. He needs to improve his recognition skills, and he has to take better angles in the open field because he doesn't have the pure speed to run guys down. Considine is a decent prospect, but his lack of experience and questionable coverage skills, along with a lack of size, should relegate him to the second day. Projected: 3rd round.
Other notables
Josh Bullocks, Nebraska - 2nd or 3rd round
Vincent Fuller, Virginia Tech - 3rd round
Dustin Fox, Ohio State - 4th round
Kerry Rhodes, Louisville - 4th or 5th round
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin - 5th round
Matt Grootegoed, Southern California - 6th round
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Linebackers
Included in this group of linebackers are two "tweeners", players who might play defensive end and/or linebacker in the NFL, but that I project to be "rush" linebackers instead of full-time defensive ends.
Inside linebackers
Top dogs
1. Barrett Ruud, Nebraska. Is Ruud the most talented inside linebacker available? Nope. However, Ruud should be the first one off the board. He's not the fastest at this position, but he has adequate quickness and great instincts. His biggest assets are his smarts (both on and off the field), his work ethic, and his overall character. Ruud is the highest-rated senior prospect in this class. While he might not be the first ILB off the board, he's the best overall prospect because of his tackling ability and overall character. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
2. Odell Thurman, Georgia. Thurman is a talented linebacker, especially against the run. He fills gaps well and has a good feel for playing near the line of scrimmage. He's a sure tackler who takes very good angles when pursuing the ball carrier. He's a bit undersized for an inside linebacker. Thurman will struggle at times in man coverage because of his size, but he has the speed to be a factor in zone coverage. He may come off the board in the first round because of his talent, but teams must be wary of his off-field problems. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
3. Channing Crowder, Florida. The most athletic of the top inside linebackers, Crowder has good size and speed, is very fluid both near the line of scrimmage and in the open field, and is the best of these top prospects in pass coverage. Crowder is athletic enough to run with a lot of running backs. He needs to be stronger at the point of attack and be more consistent in his reads. Crowder has a good motor, but can be pushed around at times and sometimes looks lost. Would have been a sure first-rounder in 2006 had he stayed in school. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
Sleeper
Lofa Tatupu, Southern California. While Tatupu lacks ideal measurables (he's not very tall, and his 40 time is a pedestrain 4.8-ish), he's a football player. At this position, football players are often successful. Tatupu is a sure tackler, fundamentally sound in coverage, and always seems to be around the football. He's always playing hard, is a good blitzer, and has great character. Tatupu might last until the draft's second day, but he'll contribute immediately on special teams and could become a solid starter in the right system. Projected: 4th round.
Overrated
Lance Mitchell, Oklahoma. I don't like downgrading players because of injuries, especially injuries suffered in 2003, but Mitchell is a rare exception. He grades out well, with good tackling skills and instincts and the speed to be a factor in pass coverage. His knee injury in 2003 seems to have sapped some of that quickness, as he wasn't quite the same player in 2004. Mitchell could rebound and become a solid pro, but teams should be wary of taking him too early and investing too much in him until he proves he's fully recovered. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Other notables
Adam Seward, UNLV - 3rd round
Rian Wallace, Temple - 5th round
Martin Patterson, Texas Christian - 6th or 7th round
Outside linebackers
Top dogs
1. Shawne Merriman, Maryland. Merriman is the first of the big-time "tweener" players in this class. He needs to improve in pass coverage, because he spent most of his time in college rushing the quarterback, but the overall skill to improve is there. He has great straight-line speed, shows good recognition skills, and has that sixth sense (it seems that he's always around the ball). Merriman is a big hitter who will make plays, and he projects as a standup player (probably a rush linebacker in a 3-4) in the NFL. Projected: 1st round.
2. Derrick Johnson, Texas. Athletic, sideline-to-sideline playmaker who is a force both against the run and the pass. Johnson is a bit inconsistent when teams run at him, but he makes up for that with his tackling skills and athleticism. He's a sure tackler who hits hard enough to force fumbles, and he will get better as a pass-rusher in the NFL. Johnson has played inside linebacker, but doesn't have the bulk to hold up there in the NFL, so teams have looked at him as an outside linebacker. He should be the first "true" linebacker off the board. Projected: 1st round.
3. Demarcus Ware, Troy. It seems like teams are looking at Ware as more of a defensive end, but he needs to add bulk before he can seriously consider playing that position. For now, he appears to be a good fit as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, as he'd be engulfed by most blockers if he played as a down lineman because of his lack of upper-body strength. Ware has big-time quickness off the edge, and he is a fluid athlete. He's still raw, but Ware has shot up the board lately, and will go in the top half of the first round. Projected: 1st round.
Sleeper
Michael Boley, Southern Mississippi. After dominating over three seasons as a starter at USM, Boley takes his playmaking skills and football sense to the NFL. Boley was consistently productive in college, and he is a smart enough player to make it in the NFL despite ideal athleticism or strength. Boley is a smaller player who will struggle at times to shed blocks, but he is a nice prospect who will be picked late in the first day of the draft. Projected: 3rd round.
Overrated
Kevin Burnett, Tennessee. Burnett is a good tackler who has plenty of upside. But his college career was filled with inconsistencies. The undersized Burnett has to improve in pass coverage, and he has to react quicker when the play is underway. Scouts differ incredibly in their opinion of Burnett because of his inconsistent production and solid upside. If he can develop a better sense of the play in front of him, Burnett has a chance to be a second-round steal. But he will need time to improve his game. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Other notables
Darryl Blackstock, Virginia - 2nd or 3rd round
Ryan Claridge, UNLV - 3rd or 4th round
Matt McCoy, San Diego State - 3rd or 4th round
Roger Cooper, Montana State - 4th or 5th round
Tyson Smith, Iowa State - 6th round
Inside linebackers
Top dogs
1. Barrett Ruud, Nebraska. Is Ruud the most talented inside linebacker available? Nope. However, Ruud should be the first one off the board. He's not the fastest at this position, but he has adequate quickness and great instincts. His biggest assets are his smarts (both on and off the field), his work ethic, and his overall character. Ruud is the highest-rated senior prospect in this class. While he might not be the first ILB off the board, he's the best overall prospect because of his tackling ability and overall character. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
2. Odell Thurman, Georgia. Thurman is a talented linebacker, especially against the run. He fills gaps well and has a good feel for playing near the line of scrimmage. He's a sure tackler who takes very good angles when pursuing the ball carrier. He's a bit undersized for an inside linebacker. Thurman will struggle at times in man coverage because of his size, but he has the speed to be a factor in zone coverage. He may come off the board in the first round because of his talent, but teams must be wary of his off-field problems. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
3. Channing Crowder, Florida. The most athletic of the top inside linebackers, Crowder has good size and speed, is very fluid both near the line of scrimmage and in the open field, and is the best of these top prospects in pass coverage. Crowder is athletic enough to run with a lot of running backs. He needs to be stronger at the point of attack and be more consistent in his reads. Crowder has a good motor, but can be pushed around at times and sometimes looks lost. Would have been a sure first-rounder in 2006 had he stayed in school. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
Sleeper
Lofa Tatupu, Southern California. While Tatupu lacks ideal measurables (he's not very tall, and his 40 time is a pedestrain 4.8-ish), he's a football player. At this position, football players are often successful. Tatupu is a sure tackler, fundamentally sound in coverage, and always seems to be around the football. He's always playing hard, is a good blitzer, and has great character. Tatupu might last until the draft's second day, but he'll contribute immediately on special teams and could become a solid starter in the right system. Projected: 4th round.
Overrated
Lance Mitchell, Oklahoma. I don't like downgrading players because of injuries, especially injuries suffered in 2003, but Mitchell is a rare exception. He grades out well, with good tackling skills and instincts and the speed to be a factor in pass coverage. His knee injury in 2003 seems to have sapped some of that quickness, as he wasn't quite the same player in 2004. Mitchell could rebound and become a solid pro, but teams should be wary of taking him too early and investing too much in him until he proves he's fully recovered. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Other notables
Adam Seward, UNLV - 3rd round
Alfred Fincher, Connecticut - 3rd or 4th round
Mike Goolsby, Notre Dame - 4th or 5th roundRian Wallace, Temple - 5th round
Martin Patterson, Texas Christian - 6th or 7th round
Outside linebackers
Top dogs
1. Shawne Merriman, Maryland. Merriman is the first of the big-time "tweener" players in this class. He needs to improve in pass coverage, because he spent most of his time in college rushing the quarterback, but the overall skill to improve is there. He has great straight-line speed, shows good recognition skills, and has that sixth sense (it seems that he's always around the ball). Merriman is a big hitter who will make plays, and he projects as a standup player (probably a rush linebacker in a 3-4) in the NFL. Projected: 1st round.
2. Derrick Johnson, Texas. Athletic, sideline-to-sideline playmaker who is a force both against the run and the pass. Johnson is a bit inconsistent when teams run at him, but he makes up for that with his tackling skills and athleticism. He's a sure tackler who hits hard enough to force fumbles, and he will get better as a pass-rusher in the NFL. Johnson has played inside linebacker, but doesn't have the bulk to hold up there in the NFL, so teams have looked at him as an outside linebacker. He should be the first "true" linebacker off the board. Projected: 1st round.
3. Demarcus Ware, Troy. It seems like teams are looking at Ware as more of a defensive end, but he needs to add bulk before he can seriously consider playing that position. For now, he appears to be a good fit as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, as he'd be engulfed by most blockers if he played as a down lineman because of his lack of upper-body strength. Ware has big-time quickness off the edge, and he is a fluid athlete. He's still raw, but Ware has shot up the board lately, and will go in the top half of the first round. Projected: 1st round.
Sleeper
Michael Boley, Southern Mississippi. After dominating over three seasons as a starter at USM, Boley takes his playmaking skills and football sense to the NFL. Boley was consistently productive in college, and he is a smart enough player to make it in the NFL despite ideal athleticism or strength. Boley is a smaller player who will struggle at times to shed blocks, but he is a nice prospect who will be picked late in the first day of the draft. Projected: 3rd round.
Overrated
Kevin Burnett, Tennessee. Burnett is a good tackler who has plenty of upside. But his college career was filled with inconsistencies. The undersized Burnett has to improve in pass coverage, and he has to react quicker when the play is underway. Scouts differ incredibly in their opinion of Burnett because of his inconsistent production and solid upside. If he can develop a better sense of the play in front of him, Burnett has a chance to be a second-round steal. But he will need time to improve his game. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Other notables
Darryl Blackstock, Virginia - 2nd or 3rd round
Ryan Claridge, UNLV - 3rd or 4th round
Matt McCoy, San Diego State - 3rd or 4th round
Roger Cooper, Montana State - 4th or 5th round
Tyson Smith, Iowa State - 6th round
Tuesday, April 19, 2005
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Defensive line
We'll combine the ends and tackles into one huge posting. I'm still on track to get everything done before the draft, though it could get a bit hairy later in the week. I will work hard to get all the previews up before the 49ers (or whoever they trade the pick to) are on the clock.
Defensive tackles
Top dogs
1. Travis Johnson, Florida State. Johnson is an impressive prospect with good size, good athleticism, and great explosiveness. He has the potential to be disruptive both against the run and the pass, and he could be a force if his motor is running. The problem? His motor isn't always running. Johnson was accused of sexual assault in college (charges were dropped), and he turned a lot of coaches off with his demeanor at FSU's pro day. Johnson will still be the first player off the board at this position. Projected: 1st round.
2. Luis Castillo, Northwestern. Castillo has built his profile recently, showing a willingness to do what it takes to get better. Unfortunately, "what it takes" apparently included taking an illegal steroid to help heal an elbow injury before the scouting combine. Luckily for Castillo, this is a weak class, and his athletic upside and willingness to own up to the steroid use in a letter sent to all 32 teams last week will only help him. If GMs are down enough on Johnson because of the attitude problems at his pro day, Castillo could still be the first tackle picked. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
3. Mike Patterson, Southern California. Explosive one-gap tackle who can get up the field and disrupt the play in the backfield. He's undersized at just a shade under six feet tall, but his quickness and smarts help make up for it. While his size is a concern, he's a good character guy and team leader. In a class full of character risks at the top, Patterson and teammate Shaun Cody are rare breeds. I think Patterson is a bit more explosive than Cody, and worthy of a second-round pick. Projected: 2nd round.
Sleeper
Ronald Fields, Mississippi State. Fields isn't as explosive as the top players in this class, but he still has the look of a first-day pick who might surprise a few people. Fields is a pure nose tackle who might get up the field a few times, but is mainly a force at the point of attack. He holds up well in the trenches, and can move blockers around. Fields is limited as an athlete, but has a chance to be a force in the NFL against the run, especially if he can add a few pounds. Projected: 3rd or 4th round.
Overrated
Anttaj Hawthorne, Wisconsin. Solid athlete who is strong at the point of attack and shows good pass-rush moves from the interior. Locates the ball well and is capable of making big plays. Hawthorne had an uneven senior season, however, with questionable effort at times, and it seemed he regressed a bit as the season wore on. He didn't help his own cause with a positive marijuana test at the combine, but his stock was already dropping before word of that test came out because of bad workouts. Projected: 4th round.
Other notables
Shaun Cody, Southern California - 2nd round
Atiyyah Ellison, Missouri - 2nd or 3rd round
Jonathan Babineaux, Iowa - 2nd or 3rd round
Darrell Shropshire, South Carolina - 4th round
C.J. Mosley, Missouri - 4th round
Jason Jefferson, Wisconsin - 4th or 5th round
Albert Means, Memphis - 6th round
Defensive ends
Top dogs
1. David Pollack, Georgia. Pollack does everything right. He plays hard every snap, has great technique, is active with his hands and does a good job of slapping away blocks, and he has great football instincts. He's stronger than he might look and won't get pushed around by anyone. The knocks on him are his size, his measured quickness (he plays quicker on the field than he runs on a track), and a perceived lack of a position. Pollack can play defensive end in the NFL, and he's the best football player at that position available in this draft. Projected: 1st round.
2. Erasmus James, Wisconsin. After a very good senior season where he bounced back from a hip injury that ruined 2003, James is one of the top defensive ends available in this draft. He answered questions about his durability by quickly rebounding from a leg injury suffered on a controversial block against Purdue. James plays both the run and pass well, working hard to hold his ground at the point of attack while showing an impressive array of pass-rush moves. James still has room to grow, but is good enough to be the second end selected. Projected: 1st round.
3. Marcus Spears, Louisiana State. The biggest of the defensive end prospects, Spears flashes good athleticism and excellent power. He can play both tackle and end, but he appears to be a better fit at defensive end. He's not quick, but he plays a fundamentally strong game, and he will use his long arms to bat down passes when he can't get to the quarterback. Spears had knee surgery that caused him to miss the combine, but he should be fine, and he grades out as one of the best all-around defensive line prospects. Projected: 1st round.
Sleeper
Jonathan Welsh, Wisconsin. Not a typical defensive end, the undersized Welsh has displayed enough speed and playmaking ability to be drafted by a team looking for a situational pass-rusher. His acceleration and explosiveness are impressive, and he shows a good array of pass-rush moves. He has a good work ethic and was durable in college. Scouts knock Welsh because of his small frame, but someone will be able to find playing time for him, as he is capable of being a playmaker in the pass rush. Projected: 4th or 5th round.
Overrated
Jovan Haye, Vanderbilt. Haye is okay, and is one of few big defensive ends on the board, but his lack of athletic ability will knock him down a bit. Haye is stout against the run and shows some good pass-rush moves. But he's not overly athletic, and he has trouble disengaging from blockers. He has some quickness, but he is too hesitant at times. Haye will continue to improve as he gains experience (he didn't play on the defensive line until college), and he has teased enough ability to get himself drafted on the first day.Projected: 3rd round.
Other notables
Dan Cody, Oklahoma - 1st round
Matt Roth, Iowa - 1st or 2nd round
Justin Tuck, Notre Dame - 2nd round
Chris Canty, Virginia - 2nd or 3rd round
Vincent Burns, Kentucky - 5th or 6th round
Bill Swancutt, Oregon State - 5th or 6th round
Defensive tackles
Top dogs
1. Travis Johnson, Florida State. Johnson is an impressive prospect with good size, good athleticism, and great explosiveness. He has the potential to be disruptive both against the run and the pass, and he could be a force if his motor is running. The problem? His motor isn't always running. Johnson was accused of sexual assault in college (charges were dropped), and he turned a lot of coaches off with his demeanor at FSU's pro day. Johnson will still be the first player off the board at this position. Projected: 1st round.
2. Luis Castillo, Northwestern. Castillo has built his profile recently, showing a willingness to do what it takes to get better. Unfortunately, "what it takes" apparently included taking an illegal steroid to help heal an elbow injury before the scouting combine. Luckily for Castillo, this is a weak class, and his athletic upside and willingness to own up to the steroid use in a letter sent to all 32 teams last week will only help him. If GMs are down enough on Johnson because of the attitude problems at his pro day, Castillo could still be the first tackle picked. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
3. Mike Patterson, Southern California. Explosive one-gap tackle who can get up the field and disrupt the play in the backfield. He's undersized at just a shade under six feet tall, but his quickness and smarts help make up for it. While his size is a concern, he's a good character guy and team leader. In a class full of character risks at the top, Patterson and teammate Shaun Cody are rare breeds. I think Patterson is a bit more explosive than Cody, and worthy of a second-round pick. Projected: 2nd round.
Sleeper
Ronald Fields, Mississippi State. Fields isn't as explosive as the top players in this class, but he still has the look of a first-day pick who might surprise a few people. Fields is a pure nose tackle who might get up the field a few times, but is mainly a force at the point of attack. He holds up well in the trenches, and can move blockers around. Fields is limited as an athlete, but has a chance to be a force in the NFL against the run, especially if he can add a few pounds. Projected: 3rd or 4th round.
Overrated
Anttaj Hawthorne, Wisconsin. Solid athlete who is strong at the point of attack and shows good pass-rush moves from the interior. Locates the ball well and is capable of making big plays. Hawthorne had an uneven senior season, however, with questionable effort at times, and it seemed he regressed a bit as the season wore on. He didn't help his own cause with a positive marijuana test at the combine, but his stock was already dropping before word of that test came out because of bad workouts. Projected: 4th round.
Other notables
Shaun Cody, Southern California - 2nd round
Atiyyah Ellison, Missouri - 2nd or 3rd round
Jonathan Babineaux, Iowa - 2nd or 3rd round
Darrell Shropshire, South Carolina - 4th round
C.J. Mosley, Missouri - 4th round
Jason Jefferson, Wisconsin - 4th or 5th round
Albert Means, Memphis - 6th round
Defensive ends
Top dogs
1. David Pollack, Georgia. Pollack does everything right. He plays hard every snap, has great technique, is active with his hands and does a good job of slapping away blocks, and he has great football instincts. He's stronger than he might look and won't get pushed around by anyone. The knocks on him are his size, his measured quickness (he plays quicker on the field than he runs on a track), and a perceived lack of a position. Pollack can play defensive end in the NFL, and he's the best football player at that position available in this draft. Projected: 1st round.
2. Erasmus James, Wisconsin. After a very good senior season where he bounced back from a hip injury that ruined 2003, James is one of the top defensive ends available in this draft. He answered questions about his durability by quickly rebounding from a leg injury suffered on a controversial block against Purdue. James plays both the run and pass well, working hard to hold his ground at the point of attack while showing an impressive array of pass-rush moves. James still has room to grow, but is good enough to be the second end selected. Projected: 1st round.
3. Marcus Spears, Louisiana State. The biggest of the defensive end prospects, Spears flashes good athleticism and excellent power. He can play both tackle and end, but he appears to be a better fit at defensive end. He's not quick, but he plays a fundamentally strong game, and he will use his long arms to bat down passes when he can't get to the quarterback. Spears had knee surgery that caused him to miss the combine, but he should be fine, and he grades out as one of the best all-around defensive line prospects. Projected: 1st round.
Sleeper
Jonathan Welsh, Wisconsin. Not a typical defensive end, the undersized Welsh has displayed enough speed and playmaking ability to be drafted by a team looking for a situational pass-rusher. His acceleration and explosiveness are impressive, and he shows a good array of pass-rush moves. He has a good work ethic and was durable in college. Scouts knock Welsh because of his small frame, but someone will be able to find playing time for him, as he is capable of being a playmaker in the pass rush. Projected: 4th or 5th round.
Overrated
Jovan Haye, Vanderbilt. Haye is okay, and is one of few big defensive ends on the board, but his lack of athletic ability will knock him down a bit. Haye is stout against the run and shows some good pass-rush moves. But he's not overly athletic, and he has trouble disengaging from blockers. He has some quickness, but he is too hesitant at times. Haye will continue to improve as he gains experience (he didn't play on the defensive line until college), and he has teased enough ability to get himself drafted on the first day.Projected: 3rd round.
Other notables
Dan Cody, Oklahoma - 1st round
Matt Roth, Iowa - 1st or 2nd round
Justin Tuck, Notre Dame - 2nd round
Chris Canty, Virginia - 2nd or 3rd round
George Gause, South Carolina - 3rd or 4th round
Jonathan Goddard, Marshall - 4th or 5th roundVincent Burns, Kentucky - 5th or 6th round
Bill Swancutt, Oregon State - 5th or 6th round
Monday, April 18, 2005
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Offensive line
This is not a strong batch of offensive linemen, but there are a couple blue-chip prospects at tackle along with an elite center. Here’s a look at the offensive line class of 2005.
Tackles
Top dogs
1. Alex Barron, Florida State. Tall, long-armed blocker who came into his own in 2004. He has the quickness and solid fundamentals to handle pass rushers off the edge, and he is also a stout run blocker. The 2004 consensus All-American needs to be a more consistent player, as his first step and angles are not up to par some of the time. However, Barron is a fluid athlete for his size, and he has room to get bigger without losing that athletic abilty. He merits selection in the top half of the first round. Projected: 1st round.
2. Khalif Barnes, Washington. Barnes is a late-bloomer on most draft boards. The former defensive tackle started 42 straight games before a broken wrist ended his senior season. With the injury having healed, Barnes worked out and impressed the scouts with his range and athletic ability. There are issues surrounding Barnes’ work ethic, as some believe he will not be the same player once he gets that first big paycheck. However, the athletic ability and blocking fundamentals are impressive, and Barnes should go off the board in the first round. Projected: 1st round
3. Jamaal Brown, Oklahoma. Brown is a proven commodity, having been a full-time starter for three straight years. His strength is his mobility. He shows good body control and great quickness in pass protection. He needs to be more physical to fully develop as a run-blocker. Brown’s biggest weaknesses are his aggressiveness and his mental makeup. He’s not known as a player with a mean streak, and he scored just a 13 on his Wunderlic, which has some worried about his ability to pick up NFL blocking schemes. Despite these questions, Brown is a likely first-round pick because of his consistent production in college. Projected: 1st round.
Sleeper
Michael Roos, Eastern Washington. Roos is a native of Estonia who has only been playing offensive tackle for three years. He was first-team All-Big Sky in 2004 after earning honorable mention in 2002 and 2003. Roos has already developed into a solid prospect who has a knack for recognizing pass rush moves and reacting quickly to them. He has the room on his body to add bulk, which he will almost certainly have to do to become a factor in the NFL. However, his development has been impressive, and Roos has great upside. He turned heads during Senior Bowl week and will be drafted on the second day. Projected: 4th round.
Overrated
Michael Munoz, Tennessee. Munoz has come back from serious injury and dealt with minor health issues during his college career, and he came on with a big season in 2004. His fundamentals are strong, and he has good size. However, he is not overpowering as a run blocker, and he can be beaten off the edge by good pass rushers. If he can stay healthy and become a stronger player at the point of attack, Munoz will be a factor. However, he doesn’t have much upside, and he failed to live up to expectations in college until his senior season. Projected: 3rd round.
Guards
Top dogs
1. Elton Brown, Virginia. Impressive footwork and overall athleticism for a guard. Brown is effective in pass protection, but could be better against a bull rush, where he is sometimes caught with poor leverage. Brown isn’t quite as overpowering in run-blocking as he could be, but has the impressive size and strength to be effective. A three-year starter in college, Brown has plenty of experience and is ready to make the jump. In a relatively weak guard class, Brown is the best of the bunch and warrants a second-round pick. Projected: 2nd round.
2. Logan Mankins, Fresno State. Mankins is one of the smallest of the top guard prospects at just a shade over 300 pounds. He doesn’t overpower anyone, but he plays with great intensity and is able to sustain his blocks. Mankins moves his feet well, and his technique makes up for an overall lack of upper- and lower-body strength. He’ll need to get stronger to become an NFL starter, but even with that in mind, Mankins should be drafted on the first day. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Sleeper
Dan Buenning, Wisconsin. Buenning could end up like Bill Ferrario, a late-round pick from Wisconsin who was overmatched in the NFL. Buenning could end up like Mark Tauscher, a late-round pick from Wisconsin who has turned himself into a solid starting tackle. Buenning is excellent as a run blocker, and he is better than anticipated in pass protection. He doesn’t have ideal speed or quickness, and he is only average in the open field. However, Buenning has enough skill to be drafted in the fourth round, and in the right system, he could become a solid starter. Projected: 4th round.
Overrated
Chris Kemoeatu, Utah. Massive, mauling type of guard who destroys at the point of attack and has underrated quickness, especially for his 340-pound size. Kemoeatu plays with a mean streak, but that’s not always a good thing; Kemoeatu was suspended after twice kicking players in the face during games. His conditioning and weight will always be a problem, and his work in pass protection needs improvement. Kemoeatu will likely be drafted on the first day, but will need time to become an NFL starter, assuming he’s able to become one. Projected: 3rd round.
Other notables
Evan Mathis, Alabama – 3rd round
Nick Kaczur, Toledo – 3rd or 4th round
Adam Snyder, Oregon – 4th round
Jonathon Clinkscale, Wisconsin – 4th or 5th round
Justin Geisinger, Vanderbilt – 5th round
Dan Connolly, SE Missouri State – 6th or 7th round
Centers
Top dogs
1. David Bass, Michigan. He’s the most prepared of any of the center prospects in a weak class. Bass has all the physical tools, though he is a bit undersized. He’s good in pass protection, and he shows excellent power run-blocking. Bass rarely makes mental errors, and he is an experienced player who serves as a good leader on the offensive line. While he probably won’t be drafted in the first round, Bass is clearly at the head of this class, and he should go by no later than the middle of the second round. Projected: 2nd round.
2. Chris Spencer, Mississippi. Spencer only started as a center for one season, but showed tremendous upside. He has good mobility, and he understands how to use leverage to his advantage. His lower body isn’t developed, and he risks getting pushed around early in his career unless he gets a stronger base. While Spencer’s experience is a concern for some, it’s worth pointing out that Bass only started for a single full season at center, too. When you consider the talents of these two, it’s a lot closer than some think it is, and both should go in the second round. Projected: 2nd round.
Sleeper
Scott Mruczkowski, Bowling Green. While Mruczkowski appears to be more of a center/guard ‘tweener, he enters the draft after two seasons as the starting center in college. He is not a mauler, instead using technique and skill to move linemen at the point of attack. His ‘tweener status hurts him, as does a general lack of athleticism. Mruczkowski is a second-day selection, but his intelligence and fundamentals will make him a tough player to keep on the bench once he learns the system. Projected: 4th round.
Other notables
Jason Brown, North Carolina – 3rd round
Benjamin Wilkerson, Louisiana State – 3rd round
Richie Incognito, Nebraska – 4th or 5th round
Vince Carter, Oklahoma – 5th or 6th round
Eric Ghiacuic, Central Michigan – 7th round
Tackles
Top dogs
1. Alex Barron, Florida State. Tall, long-armed blocker who came into his own in 2004. He has the quickness and solid fundamentals to handle pass rushers off the edge, and he is also a stout run blocker. The 2004 consensus All-American needs to be a more consistent player, as his first step and angles are not up to par some of the time. However, Barron is a fluid athlete for his size, and he has room to get bigger without losing that athletic abilty. He merits selection in the top half of the first round. Projected: 1st round.
2. Khalif Barnes, Washington. Barnes is a late-bloomer on most draft boards. The former defensive tackle started 42 straight games before a broken wrist ended his senior season. With the injury having healed, Barnes worked out and impressed the scouts with his range and athletic ability. There are issues surrounding Barnes’ work ethic, as some believe he will not be the same player once he gets that first big paycheck. However, the athletic ability and blocking fundamentals are impressive, and Barnes should go off the board in the first round. Projected: 1st round
3. Jamaal Brown, Oklahoma. Brown is a proven commodity, having been a full-time starter for three straight years. His strength is his mobility. He shows good body control and great quickness in pass protection. He needs to be more physical to fully develop as a run-blocker. Brown’s biggest weaknesses are his aggressiveness and his mental makeup. He’s not known as a player with a mean streak, and he scored just a 13 on his Wunderlic, which has some worried about his ability to pick up NFL blocking schemes. Despite these questions, Brown is a likely first-round pick because of his consistent production in college. Projected: 1st round.
Sleeper
Michael Roos, Eastern Washington. Roos is a native of Estonia who has only been playing offensive tackle for three years. He was first-team All-Big Sky in 2004 after earning honorable mention in 2002 and 2003. Roos has already developed into a solid prospect who has a knack for recognizing pass rush moves and reacting quickly to them. He has the room on his body to add bulk, which he will almost certainly have to do to become a factor in the NFL. However, his development has been impressive, and Roos has great upside. He turned heads during Senior Bowl week and will be drafted on the second day. Projected: 4th round.
Overrated
Michael Munoz, Tennessee. Munoz has come back from serious injury and dealt with minor health issues during his college career, and he came on with a big season in 2004. His fundamentals are strong, and he has good size. However, he is not overpowering as a run blocker, and he can be beaten off the edge by good pass rushers. If he can stay healthy and become a stronger player at the point of attack, Munoz will be a factor. However, he doesn’t have much upside, and he failed to live up to expectations in college until his senior season. Projected: 3rd round.
Guards
Top dogs
1. Elton Brown, Virginia. Impressive footwork and overall athleticism for a guard. Brown is effective in pass protection, but could be better against a bull rush, where he is sometimes caught with poor leverage. Brown isn’t quite as overpowering in run-blocking as he could be, but has the impressive size and strength to be effective. A three-year starter in college, Brown has plenty of experience and is ready to make the jump. In a relatively weak guard class, Brown is the best of the bunch and warrants a second-round pick. Projected: 2nd round.
2. Logan Mankins, Fresno State. Mankins is one of the smallest of the top guard prospects at just a shade over 300 pounds. He doesn’t overpower anyone, but he plays with great intensity and is able to sustain his blocks. Mankins moves his feet well, and his technique makes up for an overall lack of upper- and lower-body strength. He’ll need to get stronger to become an NFL starter, but even with that in mind, Mankins should be drafted on the first day. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Sleeper
Dan Buenning, Wisconsin. Buenning could end up like Bill Ferrario, a late-round pick from Wisconsin who was overmatched in the NFL. Buenning could end up like Mark Tauscher, a late-round pick from Wisconsin who has turned himself into a solid starting tackle. Buenning is excellent as a run blocker, and he is better than anticipated in pass protection. He doesn’t have ideal speed or quickness, and he is only average in the open field. However, Buenning has enough skill to be drafted in the fourth round, and in the right system, he could become a solid starter. Projected: 4th round.
Overrated
Chris Kemoeatu, Utah. Massive, mauling type of guard who destroys at the point of attack and has underrated quickness, especially for his 340-pound size. Kemoeatu plays with a mean streak, but that’s not always a good thing; Kemoeatu was suspended after twice kicking players in the face during games. His conditioning and weight will always be a problem, and his work in pass protection needs improvement. Kemoeatu will likely be drafted on the first day, but will need time to become an NFL starter, assuming he’s able to become one. Projected: 3rd round.
Other notables
Evan Mathis, Alabama – 3rd round
Nick Kaczur, Toledo – 3rd or 4th round
Adam Snyder, Oregon – 4th round
Jonathon Clinkscale, Wisconsin – 4th or 5th round
Justin Geisinger, Vanderbilt – 5th round
Dan Connolly, SE Missouri State – 6th or 7th round
Centers
Top dogs
1. David Bass, Michigan. He’s the most prepared of any of the center prospects in a weak class. Bass has all the physical tools, though he is a bit undersized. He’s good in pass protection, and he shows excellent power run-blocking. Bass rarely makes mental errors, and he is an experienced player who serves as a good leader on the offensive line. While he probably won’t be drafted in the first round, Bass is clearly at the head of this class, and he should go by no later than the middle of the second round. Projected: 2nd round.
2. Chris Spencer, Mississippi. Spencer only started as a center for one season, but showed tremendous upside. He has good mobility, and he understands how to use leverage to his advantage. His lower body isn’t developed, and he risks getting pushed around early in his career unless he gets a stronger base. While Spencer’s experience is a concern for some, it’s worth pointing out that Bass only started for a single full season at center, too. When you consider the talents of these two, it’s a lot closer than some think it is, and both should go in the second round. Projected: 2nd round.
Sleeper
Scott Mruczkowski, Bowling Green. While Mruczkowski appears to be more of a center/guard ‘tweener, he enters the draft after two seasons as the starting center in college. He is not a mauler, instead using technique and skill to move linemen at the point of attack. His ‘tweener status hurts him, as does a general lack of athleticism. Mruczkowski is a second-day selection, but his intelligence and fundamentals will make him a tough player to keep on the bench once he learns the system. Projected: 4th round.
Other notables
Jason Brown, North Carolina – 3rd round
Benjamin Wilkerson, Louisiana State – 3rd round
Richie Incognito, Nebraska – 4th or 5th round
Vince Carter, Oklahoma – 5th or 6th round
Eric Ghiacuic, Central Michigan – 7th round
Friday, April 15, 2005
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Tight ends
This year's class of tight ends contains one blue-chip prospect and few intriguing players who will be drafted on the first day.
Top dogs
1. Heath Miller, Virginia. Clearly the best in this class, Miller has great hands, good strength off the line, and runs well for a big man. He adjusts very well to the ball in the air. He gets off the line of scrimmage well, but doesn't show a lot of ability to make tacklers miss. Also, he is a technically sound blocker who doesn't make a lot of mistakes, but could still use improvement. Overall, however, Miller is the best at his position, and he should come off the board by the latter portion of the first round. Projected: 1st round.
2. Joel Dreessen, Colorado State. Dreessen's work ethic is unmatched. He's always striving to get better, and that will only help him at the next level. Dreessen doesn't have any major deficiencies, but is not a standout in any area, either. He has adequate size and speed, is an okay blocker, and runs clean routes. He doesn't break many tackles and won't outrun safeties, but Dreessen grades out just a bit higher than Alex Smith, and should be the second tight end off the board. If he lasts past the second round, he's probably lasted too long. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
3. Alex Smith, Stanford. Size is a concern for Smith, and he doesn't have the strength to push defenders off the line of scrimmage. Until he puts on more bulk, he has to learn to play with more consistent leverage as a blocker. He projects as a good short-yardage target, but Smith lacks the speed and athleticism to make plays downfield. He won't overpower anyone at the point of attack, but there's no reason Smith can't develop into a good blocker and receiving target. He should come off the board late in the first day. Projected: 3rd round.
Sleeper
Garrett Cross, California. Cross lacks the size necessary to be more than an average blocker, but he is a good athlete who is coming into his own as a top-flight tight end. He is smooth in the passing game and shows the speed to make defenders miss in the open field. He also projects as one of the better downfield threats among this year's tight ends. Cross needs a lot of work against tough man coverage, and he needs to improve his strength at the point of attack as a blocker, but he has the skills to contribute right away as an H-back. Projected: 4th round.
Overrated
Kevin Everett, Miami (FL). Miami's reputation as being a tight end machine might help Everett get selected on the first day. He is an undersized prospect who only caught 32 passes in two years at Miami, and didn't have a touchdown as a senior. He is not as athletic as Jeremy Shockey or Kellen Winslow, and his hands aren't as good as Bubba Franks'. Everett also had surgery on a bad shoulder in January, which limited his ability to work out. He is projected by some as a first-day pick, but shouldn't come off the board until the fifth round or later. Projected: 3rd or 4th round.
Other notables
Alex Holmes, Southern California - 4th round
Adam Bergen, Lehigh - 4th round
Tony Jackson, Iowa - 4th or 5th round
Kelly Griffeth, Fort Hays State - 5th or 6th round
Jonas Crafts, UTEP - 7th round
Top dogs
1. Heath Miller, Virginia. Clearly the best in this class, Miller has great hands, good strength off the line, and runs well for a big man. He adjusts very well to the ball in the air. He gets off the line of scrimmage well, but doesn't show a lot of ability to make tacklers miss. Also, he is a technically sound blocker who doesn't make a lot of mistakes, but could still use improvement. Overall, however, Miller is the best at his position, and he should come off the board by the latter portion of the first round. Projected: 1st round.
2. Joel Dreessen, Colorado State. Dreessen's work ethic is unmatched. He's always striving to get better, and that will only help him at the next level. Dreessen doesn't have any major deficiencies, but is not a standout in any area, either. He has adequate size and speed, is an okay blocker, and runs clean routes. He doesn't break many tackles and won't outrun safeties, but Dreessen grades out just a bit higher than Alex Smith, and should be the second tight end off the board. If he lasts past the second round, he's probably lasted too long. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
3. Alex Smith, Stanford. Size is a concern for Smith, and he doesn't have the strength to push defenders off the line of scrimmage. Until he puts on more bulk, he has to learn to play with more consistent leverage as a blocker. He projects as a good short-yardage target, but Smith lacks the speed and athleticism to make plays downfield. He won't overpower anyone at the point of attack, but there's no reason Smith can't develop into a good blocker and receiving target. He should come off the board late in the first day. Projected: 3rd round.
Sleeper
Garrett Cross, California. Cross lacks the size necessary to be more than an average blocker, but he is a good athlete who is coming into his own as a top-flight tight end. He is smooth in the passing game and shows the speed to make defenders miss in the open field. He also projects as one of the better downfield threats among this year's tight ends. Cross needs a lot of work against tough man coverage, and he needs to improve his strength at the point of attack as a blocker, but he has the skills to contribute right away as an H-back. Projected: 4th round.
Overrated
Kevin Everett, Miami (FL). Miami's reputation as being a tight end machine might help Everett get selected on the first day. He is an undersized prospect who only caught 32 passes in two years at Miami, and didn't have a touchdown as a senior. He is not as athletic as Jeremy Shockey or Kellen Winslow, and his hands aren't as good as Bubba Franks'. Everett also had surgery on a bad shoulder in January, which limited his ability to work out. He is projected by some as a first-day pick, but shouldn't come off the board until the fifth round or later. Projected: 3rd or 4th round.
Other notables
Alex Holmes, Southern California - 4th round
Adam Bergen, Lehigh - 4th round
Tony Jackson, Iowa - 4th or 5th round
Kelly Griffeth, Fort Hays State - 5th or 6th round
Jonas Crafts, UTEP - 7th round
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Wide receivers
Among the projected top ten at this position for the 2005 draft are a guy that hasn't played a competitive football game since January 1, 2004, and a guy who spent four years as a starting quarterback in college.
Top dogs
1. Braylon Edwards, Michigan. Edwards had a remarkable senior season, vaulting himself into top-five status in this draft. He shed the image he was in danger of carrying with him into the draft (that of an inconsistent player) by catching just about everything thrown his way in 2004. Edwards has good size, tremendous speed, and does a good job against press coverage. Edwards has to improve his route-running skills and do a better job against zone coverage, but he has the overall skill to be an immediate contributor in the NFL. Projected: 1st round.
2. Mike Williams, Southern California. Despite sitting out the 2004 season after a failed attempt to enter the NFL Draft locked him out of college football, Williams projects as a top-ten pick and might be the first receiver drafted. Some scouts are concerned he might eat himself into an H-back or tight end role at some point, but he looks to be in good shape heading into the draft. The fact that he hasn't played in over a year is a concern, but his size, hands, and understanding of coverage are among the best in this class. Projected: 1st round.
3. Mark Clayton, Oklahoma. Clayton is the most polished receiver in this class. He has tremendous route-running skills, great hands, and is an adequate blocker. Considering his size, he has an uncanny ability to go get the ball when it's in the air. However, his size is a concern, as it may cause him to be pushed around in the NFL. Clayton was absolutely the best receiver during Senior Bowl week, and only his size will keep him from being drafted among the first twenty picks. Projected: 1st round.
Sleepers
Vincent Jackson, Northern Colorado. Jackson might be the best small-school prospect in the draft. He has good size and solid speed. Jackson possesses very good hands and is a huge threat on fade routes because of his ability to outrun and outmuscle defensive backs. He will have to shed the small-schooler label and prove that he can compete against NFL competition, and he needs time to work on his route-running skills. However, Jackson can be an immediate vertical and red-zone threat because of his size, speed, and strength. Projected: 3rd round.
Taylor Stubblefield, Purdue. Despite his lack of size, Stubblefield projects as a solid contributor in the NFL. He runs solid routes, has great hands, and has an impressive understanding of coverage. Stubblefield was very impressive in Senior Bowl week against some of the best defensive backs in this class, disspelling notions that his size and experience in Purdue's spread offense would hurt him in the NFL. Stubblefield likely won't be drafted on the first day, but he should go early in the second. Projected: 4th or 5th round.
Overrated
Troy Williamson, South Carolina. Because Williamson played in a run-first offense in college, he enters the draft as the best blocker at his position. He has decent size and great speed, making him an immediate vertical threat. But he needs to improve his work against press coverage. He doesn't have a lot of experience in the short and intermediate routes because of the offense he played in, which mainly asked him to make plays downfield. Williamson has a chance to be a very good player, but he needs a lot of improvement before he will be ready to start and play regularly. Projected: 1st round.
Matt Jones, Arkansas. After a solid four-year career as a quarterback, Jones is making the move to wide receiver. He has great natural skills, with NFL size, NFL speed, and soft hands. However, he has little experience as a wide receiver, as he only had four catches in four years at Arkansas. He has to learn his new position at the highest level in his sport, which is enough of an issue for some, but his work ethic has also been questioned by scouts. He's going to be drafted on the first day, but the talk of him as a potential first-round value is positively laughable. Projected: 2nd round.
Other notables
Roddy White, Alabama-Birmingham - 1st or 2nd round
Reggie Brown, Georgia - 2nd round
Roscoe Parrish, Miami - 2nd or 3rd round
Jerome Mathis, Hampton - 3rd round
Craig Bragg, UCLA - 3rd or 4th round
J.R. Russell, Louisville - 3rd or 4th round
Steve Savoy, Utah - 4th round
Chad Owens, Hawaii - 5th round
Geoff McArthur, California - 5th or 6th round
Lance Moore, Toledo - 6th round
Jamaica Rector, NW Missouri State - 6th or 7th round
Top dogs
1. Braylon Edwards, Michigan. Edwards had a remarkable senior season, vaulting himself into top-five status in this draft. He shed the image he was in danger of carrying with him into the draft (that of an inconsistent player) by catching just about everything thrown his way in 2004. Edwards has good size, tremendous speed, and does a good job against press coverage. Edwards has to improve his route-running skills and do a better job against zone coverage, but he has the overall skill to be an immediate contributor in the NFL. Projected: 1st round.
2. Mike Williams, Southern California. Despite sitting out the 2004 season after a failed attempt to enter the NFL Draft locked him out of college football, Williams projects as a top-ten pick and might be the first receiver drafted. Some scouts are concerned he might eat himself into an H-back or tight end role at some point, but he looks to be in good shape heading into the draft. The fact that he hasn't played in over a year is a concern, but his size, hands, and understanding of coverage are among the best in this class. Projected: 1st round.
3. Mark Clayton, Oklahoma. Clayton is the most polished receiver in this class. He has tremendous route-running skills, great hands, and is an adequate blocker. Considering his size, he has an uncanny ability to go get the ball when it's in the air. However, his size is a concern, as it may cause him to be pushed around in the NFL. Clayton was absolutely the best receiver during Senior Bowl week, and only his size will keep him from being drafted among the first twenty picks. Projected: 1st round.
Sleepers
Vincent Jackson, Northern Colorado. Jackson might be the best small-school prospect in the draft. He has good size and solid speed. Jackson possesses very good hands and is a huge threat on fade routes because of his ability to outrun and outmuscle defensive backs. He will have to shed the small-schooler label and prove that he can compete against NFL competition, and he needs time to work on his route-running skills. However, Jackson can be an immediate vertical and red-zone threat because of his size, speed, and strength. Projected: 3rd round.
Taylor Stubblefield, Purdue. Despite his lack of size, Stubblefield projects as a solid contributor in the NFL. He runs solid routes, has great hands, and has an impressive understanding of coverage. Stubblefield was very impressive in Senior Bowl week against some of the best defensive backs in this class, disspelling notions that his size and experience in Purdue's spread offense would hurt him in the NFL. Stubblefield likely won't be drafted on the first day, but he should go early in the second. Projected: 4th or 5th round.
Overrated
Troy Williamson, South Carolina. Because Williamson played in a run-first offense in college, he enters the draft as the best blocker at his position. He has decent size and great speed, making him an immediate vertical threat. But he needs to improve his work against press coverage. He doesn't have a lot of experience in the short and intermediate routes because of the offense he played in, which mainly asked him to make plays downfield. Williamson has a chance to be a very good player, but he needs a lot of improvement before he will be ready to start and play regularly. Projected: 1st round.
Matt Jones, Arkansas. After a solid four-year career as a quarterback, Jones is making the move to wide receiver. He has great natural skills, with NFL size, NFL speed, and soft hands. However, he has little experience as a wide receiver, as he only had four catches in four years at Arkansas. He has to learn his new position at the highest level in his sport, which is enough of an issue for some, but his work ethic has also been questioned by scouts. He's going to be drafted on the first day, but the talk of him as a potential first-round value is positively laughable. Projected: 2nd round.
Other notables
Roddy White, Alabama-Birmingham - 1st or 2nd round
Reggie Brown, Georgia - 2nd round
Roscoe Parrish, Miami - 2nd or 3rd round
Jerome Mathis, Hampton - 3rd round
Craig Bragg, UCLA - 3rd or 4th round
J.R. Russell, Louisville - 3rd or 4th round
Steve Savoy, Utah - 4th round
Chad Owens, Hawaii - 5th round
Geoff McArthur, California - 5th or 6th round
Lance Moore, Toledo - 6th round
Jamaica Rector, NW Missouri State - 6th or 7th round
Thursday, April 14, 2005
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Running backs
Part two of our NFL Draft preview takes a look at a very top-heavy class of running backs.
Top dogs
1. Ronnie Brown, Auburn. Because of his impressive combination of size, speed, and power, Brown was destined to be a first-round pick. But he has separated himself from the other top running backs in this class with his ability to catch the football. He has unique route-running skills for a running back, and he has the surest hands of any runner in the draft. Brown is the kind of multi-dimensional back teams can build an offense around, as the Chargers have with LaDainian Tomlinson. He won't last long in this draft. Projected: 1st round.
2. Carnell Williams, Auburn. Williams is the "other" Auburn back in this draft. While Brown has separated himself as the top back, Williams certainly isn't far behind. "Cadillac" doesn't have Brown's physical gifts, but he's a tough kid who is very competitive. He's a fundamentally sound running back who has plus skills in the passing game. He's not the matchup threat that Brown is because he's smaller, less physical, and slower, but he's a legitimate top ten pick and should be the second running back off the board. Projected: 1st round.
3. Cedric Benson, Texas. For a time, Benson topped the board at this position, and it isn't necessarily his fault that he dropped a little bit. Benson runs with tremendous leverage and isn't afraid of taking some hits. He has great vision and the patience to let his blocking develop in front of him. However, he has already taken quite a beating, having carried the ball over 1,000 times at Texas. He appears to have adequate pass blocking and receiving skills, but he's relatively untested in both areas. Benson will go early, but might slip into the teens. Projected: 1st round.
Sleepers
Marion Barber III, Minnesota. Barber has his flaws, namely that he sometimes runs too high, doesn't always see the cutback lanes, and isn't very patient. However, he has good speed, is a very tough inside runner, and he has good receiving skills. Barber will need to improve his fundamentals, and he isn't explosive enough to be considered a true blue-chip prospect. If he can get better as a receiver, he'll be a productive player in the NFL, and he'll have the chance to become a regular starter. Projected: 3rd round.
Ryan Grant, Notre Dame. While he won't be a day one pick and may never be a starter, Grant deserves more consideration than he is getting. He is a tough, durable runner who is a good team player. He has shown some explosiveness in the open field, but is likely best served as a short-yardage specialist. Grant will improve as a receiver, a role that he wasn't asked to fill in college, and his blocking skills are adequate. Grant has good enough size and adequate speed to be a contributor on most NFL rosters. Projected: 6th round.
Overrated
Ciatrick Fason, Florida. Fason is a classic "upside" back. He has the talent to develop into a solid NFL starter, but his potential is almost completely untapped. Fason is a solid between-the-tackles runner, but he lacks the vision needed to be consistently productive. He has excellent receiving skills, and he will only get better as his route-running improves. However, he will need time to develop into a starter. He needs to learn how to read the play in front of him and he has to learn to allow his blocking to develop. He'll go on the first day, despite his numerous deficiencies. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Eric Shelton, Louisville. While Shelton's potential is exciting, there are some potential roadblocks. His size and hands are outstanding, and he is a pretty good blocker, but Shelton lacks the speed to get to the outside and be a big-play threat in the running game. He has the power to break tackles and run people over in the hole. However, he is inconsistent in many areas, including blocking, route-running, and catching the football. Shelton will go on the first day of the draft, but he has a long way to go to become an NFL starter. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Other notables
J.J. Arrington, California - 2nd round
Vernand Morency, Oklahoma State - 2nd or 3rd round
Ryan Moats, Louisiana Tech - 3rd round
Cedric Houston, Tennessee - 3rd or 4th round
Kay-Jay Harris, West Virginia - 3rd or 4th round
Anthony Davis, Wisconsin - 4th round
Walter Reyes, Syracuse - 4th round
Damien Nash, Missouri - 6th round
Maurice Clarett, Ohio State - 6th or 7th round
Noah Herron, Northwestern - 6th or 7th round
Chance Kretschmer, Nevada - 7th round
Fullbacks
1. Nehemiah Broughton, The Citadel. FB/RB 'tweener is the best prospect in this class. Broughton has good speed and is hard to bring down in the open field. He has good hands and runs adequate routes. Projected: 4th or 5th round.
2. Keith Joseph, Texas A&M. Good runner and receiver who is okay as a blocker. Has the speed to make some plays in the NFL and the size to be a tough blocker at the point of attack. Projected: 5th round.
3. Kyle Eckel, Navy. Outstanding intangibles. Very intelligent player. Tough player who was a great leader at Navy. Reportedly, the Navy has agreed to allow Eckel to put off his military service and pursue an NFL career, so he will be able to play immediately. That factor helps his prospects. Projected: 5th or 6th round.
Other notables
Branden Joe, Ohio State - 6th or 7th round
Will Matthews, Texas - 6th or 7th round
Zach Tuiasosopo, Washington - 7th round
Top dogs
1. Ronnie Brown, Auburn. Because of his impressive combination of size, speed, and power, Brown was destined to be a first-round pick. But he has separated himself from the other top running backs in this class with his ability to catch the football. He has unique route-running skills for a running back, and he has the surest hands of any runner in the draft. Brown is the kind of multi-dimensional back teams can build an offense around, as the Chargers have with LaDainian Tomlinson. He won't last long in this draft. Projected: 1st round.
2. Carnell Williams, Auburn. Williams is the "other" Auburn back in this draft. While Brown has separated himself as the top back, Williams certainly isn't far behind. "Cadillac" doesn't have Brown's physical gifts, but he's a tough kid who is very competitive. He's a fundamentally sound running back who has plus skills in the passing game. He's not the matchup threat that Brown is because he's smaller, less physical, and slower, but he's a legitimate top ten pick and should be the second running back off the board. Projected: 1st round.
3. Cedric Benson, Texas. For a time, Benson topped the board at this position, and it isn't necessarily his fault that he dropped a little bit. Benson runs with tremendous leverage and isn't afraid of taking some hits. He has great vision and the patience to let his blocking develop in front of him. However, he has already taken quite a beating, having carried the ball over 1,000 times at Texas. He appears to have adequate pass blocking and receiving skills, but he's relatively untested in both areas. Benson will go early, but might slip into the teens. Projected: 1st round.
Sleepers
Marion Barber III, Minnesota. Barber has his flaws, namely that he sometimes runs too high, doesn't always see the cutback lanes, and isn't very patient. However, he has good speed, is a very tough inside runner, and he has good receiving skills. Barber will need to improve his fundamentals, and he isn't explosive enough to be considered a true blue-chip prospect. If he can get better as a receiver, he'll be a productive player in the NFL, and he'll have the chance to become a regular starter. Projected: 3rd round.
Ryan Grant, Notre Dame. While he won't be a day one pick and may never be a starter, Grant deserves more consideration than he is getting. He is a tough, durable runner who is a good team player. He has shown some explosiveness in the open field, but is likely best served as a short-yardage specialist. Grant will improve as a receiver, a role that he wasn't asked to fill in college, and his blocking skills are adequate. Grant has good enough size and adequate speed to be a contributor on most NFL rosters. Projected: 6th round.
Overrated
Ciatrick Fason, Florida. Fason is a classic "upside" back. He has the talent to develop into a solid NFL starter, but his potential is almost completely untapped. Fason is a solid between-the-tackles runner, but he lacks the vision needed to be consistently productive. He has excellent receiving skills, and he will only get better as his route-running improves. However, he will need time to develop into a starter. He needs to learn how to read the play in front of him and he has to learn to allow his blocking to develop. He'll go on the first day, despite his numerous deficiencies. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Eric Shelton, Louisville. While Shelton's potential is exciting, there are some potential roadblocks. His size and hands are outstanding, and he is a pretty good blocker, but Shelton lacks the speed to get to the outside and be a big-play threat in the running game. He has the power to break tackles and run people over in the hole. However, he is inconsistent in many areas, including blocking, route-running, and catching the football. Shelton will go on the first day of the draft, but he has a long way to go to become an NFL starter. Projected: 2nd or 3rd round.
Other notables
J.J. Arrington, California - 2nd round
Vernand Morency, Oklahoma State - 2nd or 3rd round
Ryan Moats, Louisiana Tech - 3rd round
Cedric Houston, Tennessee - 3rd or 4th round
Kay-Jay Harris, West Virginia - 3rd or 4th round
Anthony Davis, Wisconsin - 4th round
Walter Reyes, Syracuse - 4th round
Damien Nash, Missouri - 6th round
Maurice Clarett, Ohio State - 6th or 7th round
Noah Herron, Northwestern - 6th or 7th round
Chance Kretschmer, Nevada - 7th round
Fullbacks
1. Nehemiah Broughton, The Citadel. FB/RB 'tweener is the best prospect in this class. Broughton has good speed and is hard to bring down in the open field. He has good hands and runs adequate routes. Projected: 4th or 5th round.
2. Keith Joseph, Texas A&M. Good runner and receiver who is okay as a blocker. Has the speed to make some plays in the NFL and the size to be a tough blocker at the point of attack. Projected: 5th round.
3. Kyle Eckel, Navy. Outstanding intangibles. Very intelligent player. Tough player who was a great leader at Navy. Reportedly, the Navy has agreed to allow Eckel to put off his military service and pursue an NFL career, so he will be able to play immediately. That factor helps his prospects. Projected: 5th or 6th round.
Other notables
Branden Joe, Ohio State - 6th or 7th round
Will Matthews, Texas - 6th or 7th round
Zach Tuiasosopo, Washington - 7th round
Wednesday, April 13, 2005
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Quarterbacks
As the draft approaches, we are going to begin a series of breakdowns of the top players, most overrated players, and sleepers by position. It starts today with the field generals.
Top dogs
1. Aaron Rodgers, California. Rodgers is the most complete package in this class. He has a strong arm, is an accurate passer, and is very smart in his reads. He makes good decisions, and has shown tremendous leadership ability. There are minor concerns about his level of experience, as he only has two years as a Division I-A starter. However, he shows the intelligence, grit, and talent to be a very good NFL quarterback. He should be the first overall pick. Projected: 1st round.
2. Alex Smith, Utah. Smith doesn't have Rodgers' physical ability, but makes up for it with an uncanny understanding of the game. Smith is the smartest QB in this class. He makes very quick decisions, understands defenses, and is a huge threat to make plays on the run. Smith's arm, however, isn't as strong, and he comes from a gimmicky offense where he lined up in the shotgun almost all the time. Smith should be a good one, but he isn't enough of a "total package" to go first overall. Projected: 1st round.
3. Jason Campbell, Auburn. Talented passer who might slide into the first round. Campbell gets brownie points because he had to work in four different offensive systems in his four years at Auburn. Campbell had a fine senior season in Al Borges' offense, throwing for 2,700 yards with an impressive 20-7 TD-INT ratio. He's not as highly regarded as Smith or Rodgers, but his intelligence and physical attributes will give him a chance to develop into a solid NFL starter. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
Sleepers
Adrian McPherson, Florida State. McPherson was a first-ever Mr. Football and Mr. Basketball winner in Florida, whose college career was derailed in 2002 by a gambling scandal. He turned pro after being kicked off the FSU roster, joining the Arena Football League. McPherson has had success in the AFL, and decided to make himself available for the draft. His baggage will probably cause him to stay on the board until Day 2, but McPherson has a chance to succeed in the NFL if he can harness his tremendous physical gifts. Projected: 4th round.
Derek Anderson, Oregon State. Anderson is a big, strong passer who has improved his decision-making skills in college. Anderson still forces too many passes into coverage, and he isn't very mobile. He also doesn't have a very good sense of the pass rush, causing him to take too many hits. Anderson will be drafted either late in the first day or early in the second, but if he continues to improve his decision-making and develops a better pocket sense, he will have a chance to start. Projected: 3rd round.
Overrated
Charlie Frye, Akron. After Frye had a pretty good Senior Bowl week, he began to move up some draft boards, with some projecting him as a first-round pick. However, his arm isn't very strong, and he has a slow delivery. Frye is a tough player with good leadership skills and a good presence in the huddle. But his funky release and average arm strength, along with questions about the level of competition he played against in college, hurt his overall potential as a pro. He'll be picked probably a round earlier than he should be. Projected: 2nd round.
Kyle Orton, Purdue. Orton is an accurate passer with a good arm. He knows how to read defenses and understands how to attack them. The knocks on Orton revolve around consistency. He seemed to go into a funk after his team's undefeated season was spoiled by a late comeback by Wisconsin last season. Part of his problem late last season was a hip injury, but his lack of consistency in college is somewhat alarming. To make it in the NFL, Orton will have to be even quicker in his decision-making and more effective against heavy pass pressure. Projected: 2nd round.
Other prospects
Andrew Walter, Arizona State - 2nd or 3rd round
David Greene, Georgia - 3rd round
Dan Orlovsky, Connecticut - 4th round
Jason White, Oklahoma - 5th round
Gino Guidugli, Cincinnati - 5th or 6th round
Chris Rix, Florida State - 5th or 6th round
Stefan Lefors, Louisville - 6th round
Jared Allen, Florida Atlantic - 7th round
Darian Durant, North Carolina - 7th round
Top dogs
1. Aaron Rodgers, California. Rodgers is the most complete package in this class. He has a strong arm, is an accurate passer, and is very smart in his reads. He makes good decisions, and has shown tremendous leadership ability. There are minor concerns about his level of experience, as he only has two years as a Division I-A starter. However, he shows the intelligence, grit, and talent to be a very good NFL quarterback. He should be the first overall pick. Projected: 1st round.
2. Alex Smith, Utah. Smith doesn't have Rodgers' physical ability, but makes up for it with an uncanny understanding of the game. Smith is the smartest QB in this class. He makes very quick decisions, understands defenses, and is a huge threat to make plays on the run. Smith's arm, however, isn't as strong, and he comes from a gimmicky offense where he lined up in the shotgun almost all the time. Smith should be a good one, but he isn't enough of a "total package" to go first overall. Projected: 1st round.
3. Jason Campbell, Auburn. Talented passer who might slide into the first round. Campbell gets brownie points because he had to work in four different offensive systems in his four years at Auburn. Campbell had a fine senior season in Al Borges' offense, throwing for 2,700 yards with an impressive 20-7 TD-INT ratio. He's not as highly regarded as Smith or Rodgers, but his intelligence and physical attributes will give him a chance to develop into a solid NFL starter. Projected: 1st or 2nd round.
Sleepers
Adrian McPherson, Florida State. McPherson was a first-ever Mr. Football and Mr. Basketball winner in Florida, whose college career was derailed in 2002 by a gambling scandal. He turned pro after being kicked off the FSU roster, joining the Arena Football League. McPherson has had success in the AFL, and decided to make himself available for the draft. His baggage will probably cause him to stay on the board until Day 2, but McPherson has a chance to succeed in the NFL if he can harness his tremendous physical gifts. Projected: 4th round.
Derek Anderson, Oregon State. Anderson is a big, strong passer who has improved his decision-making skills in college. Anderson still forces too many passes into coverage, and he isn't very mobile. He also doesn't have a very good sense of the pass rush, causing him to take too many hits. Anderson will be drafted either late in the first day or early in the second, but if he continues to improve his decision-making and develops a better pocket sense, he will have a chance to start. Projected: 3rd round.
Overrated
Charlie Frye, Akron. After Frye had a pretty good Senior Bowl week, he began to move up some draft boards, with some projecting him as a first-round pick. However, his arm isn't very strong, and he has a slow delivery. Frye is a tough player with good leadership skills and a good presence in the huddle. But his funky release and average arm strength, along with questions about the level of competition he played against in college, hurt his overall potential as a pro. He'll be picked probably a round earlier than he should be. Projected: 2nd round.
Kyle Orton, Purdue. Orton is an accurate passer with a good arm. He knows how to read defenses and understands how to attack them. The knocks on Orton revolve around consistency. He seemed to go into a funk after his team's undefeated season was spoiled by a late comeback by Wisconsin last season. Part of his problem late last season was a hip injury, but his lack of consistency in college is somewhat alarming. To make it in the NFL, Orton will have to be even quicker in his decision-making and more effective against heavy pass pressure. Projected: 2nd round.
Other prospects
Andrew Walter, Arizona State - 2nd or 3rd round
David Greene, Georgia - 3rd round
Dan Orlovsky, Connecticut - 4th round
Timmy Chang, Hawaii - 4th or 5th round
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard - 5th roundJason White, Oklahoma - 5th round
Gino Guidugli, Cincinnati - 5th or 6th round
Chris Rix, Florida State - 5th or 6th round
Stefan Lefors, Louisville - 6th round
Jared Allen, Florida Atlantic - 7th round
Darian Durant, North Carolina - 7th round
Thursday, April 07, 2005
2005 NFL Draft coverage - Mock Draft Version 1.0
As the NFL Draft approaches on April 23-24, here is the latest update on how I see the first round playing out. The mock draft is based on independent research into team needs, as well as updated information on individual players that teams are interested in. This mock draft does not take potential trades into account. The draft order will not be altered unless a trade is made official. Players marked with an asterisk (*) are underclassmen.
1. San Francisco – Aaron Rodgers, QB, California*. The 49ers like both Rodgers and Smith. Perhaps something, like the beginning of contract negotiations, will allow us to more confidently separate the two before the draft. Rodgers has the stronger arm, though he needs more work in reading coverage. He’s a good fit for a franchise looking to rebuild around a young quarterback, and his arm might be a better fit for the West Coast offense. Because of the miserable situation San Francisco is in, a trade-down for extra picks can’t be ruled out.
2. Miami – Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn. The Dolphins, under new coach Nick Saban, know that they have to upgrade at running back, especially if they’re still serious about employing A.J. Feeley at quarterback. Brown vaulted himself to the top of this top-heavy running back class with his performance at the scouting combine. His size and speed are outstanding, and he’ll be the workhorse back the Dolphins lacked last year after Ricky Williams left abruptly before training camp.
3. Cleveland – Alex Smith, QB, Utah*. The Browns will try to shed years of bad drafts with this pick. New GM Phil Savage understands the importance of getting a franchise quarterback, especially after the Jeff Garcia experiment failed. No one on the Browns’ roster is ready to be an NFL starter, but Smith is. He doesn’t have Rodgers’ arm, but he makes up for it with uncanny field vision and great instincts. He has the toughness and leadership to make it at the next level.
4. Chicago – Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan. Even with Muhsin Muhammad in the fold, the Bears still could use help at wide receiver. They traded Marty Booker during training camp last year, and no one on the roster made up for his absence. Edwards is the top player on many boards, and would be a great bargain at number four overall, especially with Muhammad’s inconsistent and sometimes injury-prone past. While running back is also a need, the Bears are more stable at that position and can address it later.
5. Tampa Bay – Carnell Williams, RB, Auburn. Jon Gruden has been eyeing Williams since he coached the kid in the Senior Bowl. Either Gruden is playing everyone for a fool, or he needs someone to teach him the concept of a poker face. Williams’ speed, elusiveness, and receiving skills make him a very good fit for Gruden’s offense. Michael Pittman and Charlie Garner have both failed to prove themselves as reliable starting backs, so the Buccaneers will probably go in this direction with their first pick.
6. Tennessee – Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia*. Like the quarterbacks at the top of the board, not much separates the top two cornerbacks. Both Jones and Miami’s Antrel Rolle have good speed, cover skills, and both can help immediately as dynamic return men. I’ll put Jones a bit higher because he’s less physical in coverage but still more than willing to help out against the run. Tennessee lost both starting corners in free agency, so Jones will start immediately for the Titans opposite Andre Woolfolk.
7. Minnesota – Mike Williams, WR, Southern California*. After trading Randy Moss to Oakland and acquiring this pick, speculation began to run rampant about the Vikings drafting Williams. Unless the Vikings have an inflated view of Travis Taylor, they haven’t acquired a number one receiver to replace Moss. Williams is the closest thing to that left on the board. His size (6’5”) and hands make him an attractive option for a team that just spent seven years throwing to the 6’4” Moss.
8. Arizona – Cedric Benson, RB, Texas. This pick will change if the Cardinals are able to acquire Travis Henry from Buffalo. For now, though, they need a running back. Benson is the most powerful back in this class. He’s not as accomplished a receiver as the other two backs, but he’s more than adequate in that area. He’s a tough runner, but he was very durable in college, and he carried the ball a ton. If the Cardinals acquire Henry before the draft, look for them to pick up Antrel Rolle with this pick.
9. Washington – Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami-FL. The Redskins will take either of the top two corners on the board. After losing Fred Smoot in free agency, the team knows they have to upgrade at that position. They need a guy who can excel in man coverage as well as run support, something that isn’t a strength for returning starter Shawn Springs. Rolle would start opposite Springs, and he will give the team a physical presence on the outside while also providing a dynamic kick-return threat.
10. Detroit – Alex Barron, OT, Florida State. The Lions need a new starting right tackle, as Stockar McDougle left for Miami in free agency. While the defense also has holes, the Lions need to shore up this position, and they haven’t gotten it done in free agency. Barron is the best lineman in this draft. At 6’7”, 320 pounds, he’s a strong blocker with room to improve his bulk. He needs to be more physical and more consistent, but he has the potential to become a Pro Bowl player.
11. Dallas – Shawne Merriman, DE/OLB, Maryland*. The Cowboys crave a player who can get to the quarterback from the edge. While Merriman only started in college for one year, he has great pass-rush ability and is very strong for his size (250 pounds). He’s a reliable player, and he has a reputation as a guy that plays through pain. He can play standing up as a linebacker or as a down lineman, though he may project as a more effective linebacker at the next level, but will have to improve in coverage to make it as an every-down linebacker.
12. San Diego – Marcus Spears, DE, Louisiana State. Spears is a 300-pounder who has pass-rush skills, as well as the bulk to hold up against the run. The Chargers, who play a 3-4 look, need to upgrade at defensive end. They already have a stud defensive tackle in Jamal Williams, but he can’t do everything on the line by himself. Spears will compete for starting time opposite Igor Olshansky, a 2004 second-rounder who made significant progress in his rookie season.
13. Houston – Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas. The Texans view outside linebacker as a pressing need, as they would like to move Kailee Wong inside after cutting Jamie Sharper. To do that, they have to upgrade on the outside, and Johnson is a perfect fit. He has the ability to get to the quarterback from the edge, and he can also drop back into coverage without looking lost. Johnson needs to improve as a tackler, and he sometimes has trouble when teams run right at him, but the Texans would love to add his speed and instincts to their defense.
14. Carolina – Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina*. The Panthers lost Steve Smith in the season opener in 2004, and it showed. Now, they get Smith back, but they have lost Muhsin Muhammad in free agency. Keary Colbert isn’t ready to step in as the second receiver, and he may never be, so the Panthers need to find a prospect to fill that hole. Williamson has run 4.3s in his workouts, and he has excellent hands. He is a bit raw, but teams love his athleticism. He’s also a good blocker, having played for a program that primarily ran the ball.
15. Kansas City – David Pollack, DE, Georgia. The Chiefs shouldn’t even be allowed to draft offensive players. They have too many needs on defense. One of those needs is an every-down defensive end. They traded for former Tennessee Titan Carlos Hall, but still need to get better. Pollack doesn’t have the height or speed of the “elite” prospects, but he has a non-stop motor and knows how to play the game. He’ll fit in well to just about any defensive scheme, and he’ll push for playing time in Kansas City right away.
16. New Orleans – Thomas Davis, S, Georgia*. Even with the signing of Dwight Smith and the presence of veteran Jay Bellamy, the Saints know they could use a younger, faster player in center field. Davis projects as an “in the box” safety or outside linebacker to many, but he still has good coverage skills. Wherever he plays, he can help the Saints, who have holes at safety and outside linebacker. They would be foolish to pass on an athlete of Davis’ caliber at this point in the first round.
17. Cincinnati – Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State. As the Bengals look up at Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the AFC North, they probably notice one huge discrepancy between the three teams. The Steelers and Ravens have top-notch run defenses, while the Bengals were 26th last year against the run. Johnson isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he grades out highly in run defense. He’s very disruptive against the run, and he has the athletic ability to potentially improve as a pass rusher.
18. Minnesota – Dan Cody, DE, Oklahoma. The Vikings have done a great job in free agency, signing Fred Smoot and Darren Sharper to help in the secondary, Pat Williams at defensive tackle, and acquiring Napoleon Harris and Sam Cowart at linebacker. Kenechi Udeze was a bit of a disappointment last year as a pass-rusher, and Lance Johnstone isn’t durable enough to be counted on, so the Vikings still need a defensive end that can pressure from the outside. Cody is a good fit because he has the pass-rush skills to dominate in the NFL.
19. St. Louis – Jamaal Brown, OT, Oklahoma. Even if Kyle Turley (back problems) is healthy, it’s hard to imagine he’ll return to play for a coach that he allegedly threatened to kill. With that in mind, the Rams need to find a new starting right tackle. Brown is raw and there are questions about how quickly he will pick up the techniques he needs to learn. But he’s experienced as a right tackle, and he has excellent footwork in pass blocking. There is risk here, but Brown is the best prospect at a position of need for the Rams.
20. Dallas – Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn. The Cowboys like Terence Newman at left corner, but they have had trouble finding an adequate starter on the other side of the field. They signed Anthony Henry as a free agent, but he’s not likely the answer. Rogers is an underrated prospect who has good size and strength and has gained a lot of confidence in the past year. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he makes up for it with very good man-to-man skills and the ability to find the football in the air.
21. Jacksonville – Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington. The Jaguars have Mike Pearson, but his availability for 2005 is up in the air after he suffered a serious knee injury last season. Without him, the Jaguars’ lack of depth is exposed. Barnes has been rising on some draft boards despite some concerns over his durability and work ethic. He had a broken wrist in 2004, but was having a strong season until the injury. He has good fundamentals and is very light on his feet.
22. Baltimore – Roddy White, WR, Alabama-Birmingham. White has been a quick riser as of late, thanks to a strong Senior Bowl and an even stronger combine performance. White has been running in the 4.4s, which combines with his good size (6’1”, 207) to make him a dangerous vertical receiver. Even as a rookie, White could serve as the perfect compliment to new Ravens wideout Derrick Mason, who was signed as a free agent. White has to learn how to beat press coverage, something he should excel at with his size.
23. Seattle – Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin. Chike Okeafor signed with Arizona as a free agent, and Grant Wistrom is coming off a season where he missed seven games due to injury, so the Seahawks would be smart to upgrade their personnel at defensive end. James might have the best pure pass-rushing skills of any every-down defensive end in this class. He could end up being a major steal with the 23rd pick, as concerns over his durability have knocked his stock down a peg or two.
24. Green Bay – Matt Roth, DE, Iowa. The Packers are looking for another defensive end who can get upfield. Aaron Kampman is adequate against the run, but doesn’t give the Packers much of a pass-rush threat. New defensive coordinator Jim Bates wants athletic ends who can get to the quarterback. Roth is a good pass-rusher who has better overall skills than most people think, and he plays with a mean streak. His attitude would be a great fit on a Packers defensive line that played way too soft at times last year.
25. Denver – Shaun Cody, DE/DT, Southern California. Despite adding four new defensive linemen, the Broncos still need to upgrade their outside pass rush. Cody is a tweener who can rush the passer from either the outside or the inside. He’s a good fit on this defensive line, considering the Broncos had a similar player for a few years in Trevor Pryce, who they are trying to trade. Mike Shanahan may look at the players he’s added and decide to fill another need here, but there isn’t a lot of value available at positions the Broncos have needs at.
26. N.Y. Jets – Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska*. Starting corners Donnie Abraham and David Barrett don't make many mistakes, but they don't make many big plays either and are vulnerable to getting beat deep. Washington helped his stock by running a 4.29 40-yard dash, and his explosive speed adds a new dimension to the Jets’ secondary. He isn’t very physical in coverage or run support, and he may struggle early in his career against bigger receivers, but his speed and coverage skills have vaulted him into first-round consideration.
27. Atlanta – Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma. Michael Vick needs some help from people not named Alge Crumpler for this offense to continue to progress. The Falcons drafted Michael Jenkins in the first round last year, but he’s been a bit of a disappointment. Dez White wasn’t good last year, and Peerless Price has been a bust. Clayton is a much safer choice than Jenkins was last year, because of his ability to beat defenders both in man and zone coverage, combined with his above-average hands.
28. San Diego – Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma*. If the Chargers expect free-agent Bhawoh Jue to start and play effectively at free safety, they’re sorely mistaken. That position still needs an upgrade despite Jue’s signing, and Pool is a good fit. He has excellent ball skills and is solid in zone coverage. Pool is a smart player who can contribute immediately as a “center fielder” type of safety. He has underrated ability in run support, but isn’t overly physical or intimidating.
29. Indianapolis – Heath Miller, TE, Virginia*. The Colts lost Marcus Pollard in free agency, putting the pressure on Dallas Clark to produce as the team’s top tight end. At this point, Clark is the only tight end on the roster with any significant experience. Miller is a player rated much higher on many draft boards, and the Colts won’t be able to pass him up here, despite their plethora of defensive needs. Miller has great hands and would be a perfect fit in the Colts’ wide-open offense.
30. Pittsburgh – Channing Crowder, ILB, Florida*. Kendrell Bell’s departure as a free agent (Kansas City) leaves a rather large hole in the middle of Pittsburgh’s defense. Crowder doesn’t have Bell’s pass-rush skills, but he’s very good against the run, and he should do a better job of getting to the quarterback with some coaching. Crowder’s character is an issue, as is durability, but his overall skill set should get him drafted late in the first round. He’s a good fit in Pittsburgh, where he can play in a very linebacker-friendly defensive system.
31. Philadelphia – DeMarcus Ware, DE/OLB, Troy. While he is a bit on the small side at 251 pounds, Ware is a dynamic pass-rusher who can play either as an end or a rush linebacker. He has the frame to get bigger, which he may have to do to play end in the NFL. Ware is the situational pass-rush threat the Eagles need opposite Jevon Kearse, and he could work himself into the starting lineup if he gets bigger and does a better job diagnosing the run. He also needs to be a more consistent tackler.
32. New England – Marlin Jackson, CB, Michigan. Duane Starks, 31, and Tyrone Poole, 32, are the Patriots’ starting corners. Both have had issues staying healthy, and both are undersized. Jackson is big and strong, and is a much more physical player than either Starks or Poole. Jackson won’t get lost in coverage, and he’s very good in run support. He has the versatility to play safety if necessary, though he’s better off at cornerback. He’ll have to adjust to the NFL’s strict crackdown on illegal contact, but he projects as a very good pro cornerback.
1. San Francisco – Aaron Rodgers, QB, California*. The 49ers like both Rodgers and Smith. Perhaps something, like the beginning of contract negotiations, will allow us to more confidently separate the two before the draft. Rodgers has the stronger arm, though he needs more work in reading coverage. He’s a good fit for a franchise looking to rebuild around a young quarterback, and his arm might be a better fit for the West Coast offense. Because of the miserable situation San Francisco is in, a trade-down for extra picks can’t be ruled out.
2. Miami – Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn. The Dolphins, under new coach Nick Saban, know that they have to upgrade at running back, especially if they’re still serious about employing A.J. Feeley at quarterback. Brown vaulted himself to the top of this top-heavy running back class with his performance at the scouting combine. His size and speed are outstanding, and he’ll be the workhorse back the Dolphins lacked last year after Ricky Williams left abruptly before training camp.
3. Cleveland – Alex Smith, QB, Utah*. The Browns will try to shed years of bad drafts with this pick. New GM Phil Savage understands the importance of getting a franchise quarterback, especially after the Jeff Garcia experiment failed. No one on the Browns’ roster is ready to be an NFL starter, but Smith is. He doesn’t have Rodgers’ arm, but he makes up for it with uncanny field vision and great instincts. He has the toughness and leadership to make it at the next level.
4. Chicago – Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan. Even with Muhsin Muhammad in the fold, the Bears still could use help at wide receiver. They traded Marty Booker during training camp last year, and no one on the roster made up for his absence. Edwards is the top player on many boards, and would be a great bargain at number four overall, especially with Muhammad’s inconsistent and sometimes injury-prone past. While running back is also a need, the Bears are more stable at that position and can address it later.
5. Tampa Bay – Carnell Williams, RB, Auburn. Jon Gruden has been eyeing Williams since he coached the kid in the Senior Bowl. Either Gruden is playing everyone for a fool, or he needs someone to teach him the concept of a poker face. Williams’ speed, elusiveness, and receiving skills make him a very good fit for Gruden’s offense. Michael Pittman and Charlie Garner have both failed to prove themselves as reliable starting backs, so the Buccaneers will probably go in this direction with their first pick.
6. Tennessee – Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia*. Like the quarterbacks at the top of the board, not much separates the top two cornerbacks. Both Jones and Miami’s Antrel Rolle have good speed, cover skills, and both can help immediately as dynamic return men. I’ll put Jones a bit higher because he’s less physical in coverage but still more than willing to help out against the run. Tennessee lost both starting corners in free agency, so Jones will start immediately for the Titans opposite Andre Woolfolk.
7. Minnesota – Mike Williams, WR, Southern California*. After trading Randy Moss to Oakland and acquiring this pick, speculation began to run rampant about the Vikings drafting Williams. Unless the Vikings have an inflated view of Travis Taylor, they haven’t acquired a number one receiver to replace Moss. Williams is the closest thing to that left on the board. His size (6’5”) and hands make him an attractive option for a team that just spent seven years throwing to the 6’4” Moss.
8. Arizona – Cedric Benson, RB, Texas. This pick will change if the Cardinals are able to acquire Travis Henry from Buffalo. For now, though, they need a running back. Benson is the most powerful back in this class. He’s not as accomplished a receiver as the other two backs, but he’s more than adequate in that area. He’s a tough runner, but he was very durable in college, and he carried the ball a ton. If the Cardinals acquire Henry before the draft, look for them to pick up Antrel Rolle with this pick.
9. Washington – Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami-FL. The Redskins will take either of the top two corners on the board. After losing Fred Smoot in free agency, the team knows they have to upgrade at that position. They need a guy who can excel in man coverage as well as run support, something that isn’t a strength for returning starter Shawn Springs. Rolle would start opposite Springs, and he will give the team a physical presence on the outside while also providing a dynamic kick-return threat.
10. Detroit – Alex Barron, OT, Florida State. The Lions need a new starting right tackle, as Stockar McDougle left for Miami in free agency. While the defense also has holes, the Lions need to shore up this position, and they haven’t gotten it done in free agency. Barron is the best lineman in this draft. At 6’7”, 320 pounds, he’s a strong blocker with room to improve his bulk. He needs to be more physical and more consistent, but he has the potential to become a Pro Bowl player.
11. Dallas – Shawne Merriman, DE/OLB, Maryland*. The Cowboys crave a player who can get to the quarterback from the edge. While Merriman only started in college for one year, he has great pass-rush ability and is very strong for his size (250 pounds). He’s a reliable player, and he has a reputation as a guy that plays through pain. He can play standing up as a linebacker or as a down lineman, though he may project as a more effective linebacker at the next level, but will have to improve in coverage to make it as an every-down linebacker.
12. San Diego – Marcus Spears, DE, Louisiana State. Spears is a 300-pounder who has pass-rush skills, as well as the bulk to hold up against the run. The Chargers, who play a 3-4 look, need to upgrade at defensive end. They already have a stud defensive tackle in Jamal Williams, but he can’t do everything on the line by himself. Spears will compete for starting time opposite Igor Olshansky, a 2004 second-rounder who made significant progress in his rookie season.
13. Houston – Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas. The Texans view outside linebacker as a pressing need, as they would like to move Kailee Wong inside after cutting Jamie Sharper. To do that, they have to upgrade on the outside, and Johnson is a perfect fit. He has the ability to get to the quarterback from the edge, and he can also drop back into coverage without looking lost. Johnson needs to improve as a tackler, and he sometimes has trouble when teams run right at him, but the Texans would love to add his speed and instincts to their defense.
14. Carolina – Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina*. The Panthers lost Steve Smith in the season opener in 2004, and it showed. Now, they get Smith back, but they have lost Muhsin Muhammad in free agency. Keary Colbert isn’t ready to step in as the second receiver, and he may never be, so the Panthers need to find a prospect to fill that hole. Williamson has run 4.3s in his workouts, and he has excellent hands. He is a bit raw, but teams love his athleticism. He’s also a good blocker, having played for a program that primarily ran the ball.
15. Kansas City – David Pollack, DE, Georgia. The Chiefs shouldn’t even be allowed to draft offensive players. They have too many needs on defense. One of those needs is an every-down defensive end. They traded for former Tennessee Titan Carlos Hall, but still need to get better. Pollack doesn’t have the height or speed of the “elite” prospects, but he has a non-stop motor and knows how to play the game. He’ll fit in well to just about any defensive scheme, and he’ll push for playing time in Kansas City right away.
16. New Orleans – Thomas Davis, S, Georgia*. Even with the signing of Dwight Smith and the presence of veteran Jay Bellamy, the Saints know they could use a younger, faster player in center field. Davis projects as an “in the box” safety or outside linebacker to many, but he still has good coverage skills. Wherever he plays, he can help the Saints, who have holes at safety and outside linebacker. They would be foolish to pass on an athlete of Davis’ caliber at this point in the first round.
17. Cincinnati – Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State. As the Bengals look up at Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the AFC North, they probably notice one huge discrepancy between the three teams. The Steelers and Ravens have top-notch run defenses, while the Bengals were 26th last year against the run. Johnson isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he grades out highly in run defense. He’s very disruptive against the run, and he has the athletic ability to potentially improve as a pass rusher.
18. Minnesota – Dan Cody, DE, Oklahoma. The Vikings have done a great job in free agency, signing Fred Smoot and Darren Sharper to help in the secondary, Pat Williams at defensive tackle, and acquiring Napoleon Harris and Sam Cowart at linebacker. Kenechi Udeze was a bit of a disappointment last year as a pass-rusher, and Lance Johnstone isn’t durable enough to be counted on, so the Vikings still need a defensive end that can pressure from the outside. Cody is a good fit because he has the pass-rush skills to dominate in the NFL.
19. St. Louis – Jamaal Brown, OT, Oklahoma. Even if Kyle Turley (back problems) is healthy, it’s hard to imagine he’ll return to play for a coach that he allegedly threatened to kill. With that in mind, the Rams need to find a new starting right tackle. Brown is raw and there are questions about how quickly he will pick up the techniques he needs to learn. But he’s experienced as a right tackle, and he has excellent footwork in pass blocking. There is risk here, but Brown is the best prospect at a position of need for the Rams.
20. Dallas – Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn. The Cowboys like Terence Newman at left corner, but they have had trouble finding an adequate starter on the other side of the field. They signed Anthony Henry as a free agent, but he’s not likely the answer. Rogers is an underrated prospect who has good size and strength and has gained a lot of confidence in the past year. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he makes up for it with very good man-to-man skills and the ability to find the football in the air.
21. Jacksonville – Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington. The Jaguars have Mike Pearson, but his availability for 2005 is up in the air after he suffered a serious knee injury last season. Without him, the Jaguars’ lack of depth is exposed. Barnes has been rising on some draft boards despite some concerns over his durability and work ethic. He had a broken wrist in 2004, but was having a strong season until the injury. He has good fundamentals and is very light on his feet.
22. Baltimore – Roddy White, WR, Alabama-Birmingham. White has been a quick riser as of late, thanks to a strong Senior Bowl and an even stronger combine performance. White has been running in the 4.4s, which combines with his good size (6’1”, 207) to make him a dangerous vertical receiver. Even as a rookie, White could serve as the perfect compliment to new Ravens wideout Derrick Mason, who was signed as a free agent. White has to learn how to beat press coverage, something he should excel at with his size.
23. Seattle – Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin. Chike Okeafor signed with Arizona as a free agent, and Grant Wistrom is coming off a season where he missed seven games due to injury, so the Seahawks would be smart to upgrade their personnel at defensive end. James might have the best pure pass-rushing skills of any every-down defensive end in this class. He could end up being a major steal with the 23rd pick, as concerns over his durability have knocked his stock down a peg or two.
24. Green Bay – Matt Roth, DE, Iowa. The Packers are looking for another defensive end who can get upfield. Aaron Kampman is adequate against the run, but doesn’t give the Packers much of a pass-rush threat. New defensive coordinator Jim Bates wants athletic ends who can get to the quarterback. Roth is a good pass-rusher who has better overall skills than most people think, and he plays with a mean streak. His attitude would be a great fit on a Packers defensive line that played way too soft at times last year.
25. Denver – Shaun Cody, DE/DT, Southern California. Despite adding four new defensive linemen, the Broncos still need to upgrade their outside pass rush. Cody is a tweener who can rush the passer from either the outside or the inside. He’s a good fit on this defensive line, considering the Broncos had a similar player for a few years in Trevor Pryce, who they are trying to trade. Mike Shanahan may look at the players he’s added and decide to fill another need here, but there isn’t a lot of value available at positions the Broncos have needs at.
26. N.Y. Jets – Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska*. Starting corners Donnie Abraham and David Barrett don't make many mistakes, but they don't make many big plays either and are vulnerable to getting beat deep. Washington helped his stock by running a 4.29 40-yard dash, and his explosive speed adds a new dimension to the Jets’ secondary. He isn’t very physical in coverage or run support, and he may struggle early in his career against bigger receivers, but his speed and coverage skills have vaulted him into first-round consideration.
27. Atlanta – Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma. Michael Vick needs some help from people not named Alge Crumpler for this offense to continue to progress. The Falcons drafted Michael Jenkins in the first round last year, but he’s been a bit of a disappointment. Dez White wasn’t good last year, and Peerless Price has been a bust. Clayton is a much safer choice than Jenkins was last year, because of his ability to beat defenders both in man and zone coverage, combined with his above-average hands.
28. San Diego – Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma*. If the Chargers expect free-agent Bhawoh Jue to start and play effectively at free safety, they’re sorely mistaken. That position still needs an upgrade despite Jue’s signing, and Pool is a good fit. He has excellent ball skills and is solid in zone coverage. Pool is a smart player who can contribute immediately as a “center fielder” type of safety. He has underrated ability in run support, but isn’t overly physical or intimidating.
29. Indianapolis – Heath Miller, TE, Virginia*. The Colts lost Marcus Pollard in free agency, putting the pressure on Dallas Clark to produce as the team’s top tight end. At this point, Clark is the only tight end on the roster with any significant experience. Miller is a player rated much higher on many draft boards, and the Colts won’t be able to pass him up here, despite their plethora of defensive needs. Miller has great hands and would be a perfect fit in the Colts’ wide-open offense.
30. Pittsburgh – Channing Crowder, ILB, Florida*. Kendrell Bell’s departure as a free agent (Kansas City) leaves a rather large hole in the middle of Pittsburgh’s defense. Crowder doesn’t have Bell’s pass-rush skills, but he’s very good against the run, and he should do a better job of getting to the quarterback with some coaching. Crowder’s character is an issue, as is durability, but his overall skill set should get him drafted late in the first round. He’s a good fit in Pittsburgh, where he can play in a very linebacker-friendly defensive system.
31. Philadelphia – DeMarcus Ware, DE/OLB, Troy. While he is a bit on the small side at 251 pounds, Ware is a dynamic pass-rusher who can play either as an end or a rush linebacker. He has the frame to get bigger, which he may have to do to play end in the NFL. Ware is the situational pass-rush threat the Eagles need opposite Jevon Kearse, and he could work himself into the starting lineup if he gets bigger and does a better job diagnosing the run. He also needs to be a more consistent tackler.
32. New England – Marlin Jackson, CB, Michigan. Duane Starks, 31, and Tyrone Poole, 32, are the Patriots’ starting corners. Both have had issues staying healthy, and both are undersized. Jackson is big and strong, and is a much more physical player than either Starks or Poole. Jackson won’t get lost in coverage, and he’s very good in run support. He has the versatility to play safety if necessary, though he’s better off at cornerback. He’ll have to adjust to the NFL’s strict crackdown on illegal contact, but he projects as a very good pro cornerback.
Friday, April 01, 2005
Bruce Blogs Baseball - The National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
Pitchers: When the Cardinals were bounced out of the World Series in four straight by the Red Sox, one of the glaring weaknesses was a lack of front-line starting pitching. General manager Walt Jocketty was able to quickly move to acquire a much-needed staff ace, as the Cardinals traded for Oakland pitcher Mark Mulder (17-8, 4.43). Mulder faded a bit down the stretch last season, but the Cardinals don’t expect that to be a major issue. Mulder’s presence should take pressure off Chris Carpenter (15-5, 3.46), Jason Marquis (15-7, 3.41), and Jeff Suppan (16-9, 4.16). Carpenter is 29, but continues to improve, and Marquis has worked this offseason on developing a curveball and improving his stamina. Matt Morris (15-10, 4.72) has been battling shoulder problems and might not be ready for Opening Day, but he will be a factor once healthy.
32-year-old closer Jason Isringhausen (2.87 ERA, 47 saves) was practically unhittable in 2004, but wasn’t always 100 percent. The Cardinals have a pretty deep bullpen in front of him, led by righthanders Julian Tavarez and Al Reyes, along with lefties Ray King and Mike Myers. King made 86 appearances, but the specialist only threw 62 innings, as he is often called out to get one or two lefthanded hitters out. One-time starter Cal Eldred, 37, has settled into a long relief role with the Cardinals, and he put up pretty good numbers in 2004 (4-2, 3.76 in 52 games).
Position players: Even with some changes, the Cardinals are going to field a pretty tough lineup. The new leadoff man is David Eckstein (.276-2-35), signed away from the Angels. Eckstein will find ways to get on base, he’ll steal, and he’ll score plenty of runs with the crew he has hitting behind him. It starts with Larry Walker (.298-17-47 overall in 82 games), who will need the occasional day off, but can still hit for average and good power. Superstar Albert Pujols (.331-46-123) can do it all with the bat (he’s a Triple Crown waiting to happen), and he’s really improved his defense at first base. Gold Glove third baseman Scott Rolen will have trouble duplicating his 2004 numbers (.314-34-124), but anything is possible when you’re hitting behind Pujols. Veteran Jim Edmonds (.301-42-111) is coming off his best offensive year, but at age 34, how long can he play at this high of a level both offensively and defensively? The Cardinals also have Reggie Sanders (.260-22-67) and former Cub Mark Grudzielanek (.307-6-23).
Overall analysis: Mulder lost some velocity towards the end of the 2004 season; many still wonder exactly what happened to cause it. Reports out of spring training are positive, and Mulder appears ready to go. As long as he’s healthy, the Cardinals are very dangerous. They’ll have the rotation ace they so desperately needed last year, and the complementary parts are as good as any rotation in baseball. With Walker, Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds in the batting order, you know the Cardinals will score bundles of runs. As long as they can hold down the opposition consistently, this has the look of a 90-95 win team and a division champion.
2. Chicago Cubs
Pitchers: The Cubs have one of the best rotations in baseball if their frontline starters are healthy. Unfortunately for the Cubs, that’s one big “if”, because both Mark Prior 6-4, 4.02 in 21 starts) and Kerry Wood (8-9, 3.72 in 22 starts) missed significant time last season, and both are already on the shelf this spring. Without them, the Cubs’ pitching staff becomes very ordinary, though third starter Carlos Zambrano (16-8, 2.75) could be the most talented pitcher on the staff if he can control his weight. Ageless veteran Greg Maddux (16-11, 4.02) returns in search of an 18th straight season with 15 or more wins. The Cubs also have Glendon Rusch (6-2, 3.47) available for spot-starting duty. Rusch had a 3.50 ERA in his 16 starts last season. If Prior and Wood can get it together and stay healthy, the Cubs’ rotation is good enough to carry them a long way.
The Cubs still haven’t completely sorted out their bullpen situation. It appears that they’ll open the season with flammable LaTroy Hawkins (2.63 ERA, 25 saves in 34 chances) as the closer, while former closer Joe Borowski serves as a setup man. Borowski is joined in that role by capable veteran Mike Remlinger, Kyle Farnsworth, Jon Leicester, and Chad Fox. Ryan Dempster could eventually end up as the closer if he ever gets his elbow right. Fox is coming off major surgery, but has the stuff to move into the closer role.
Position players: After 13 years as a mainstay in the lineup and a beloved figure in Chicago, outfielder Sammy Sosa was dealt to Baltimore. The split was necessitated by a rough 2004 season that ended with Sosa leaving the locker room early on the final day of the season. Without Sosa in the lineup, the Cubs actually have a chance to get better (Sosa hit just .253 last year). A lot of it depends on the production of new leadoff man Corey Patterson (.266-24-72, 168 strikeouts). Patterson has good speed and a nice swing, but his strikeouts need to come down for him to be effective out of the leadoff spot. Todd Walker (.274-15-50) looks to be effective as an everyday player, as Mark Grudzielanek has moved on. With Nomar Garciaparra (.308-9-41 overall), Aramis Ramirez (.318-36-103), Derrek Lee (.278-32-98), and Jeromy Burnitz (.283-37-110 in Colorado) in the middle of the order, the Cubs should be able to generate some offense (provided Burnitz thinks he’s at Coors Field all the time; he hit .244 away from Denver last year).
Overall analysis: Besides the obvious fears regarding the health of Wood and Prior and the closer situation, the Cubs have a pretty solid team. The lineup is good, with the possible exception of a left field platoon of Todd Hollandsworth, Jason Dubois, and Jerry Hairston, Jr. Dusty Baker knows how to win, but he needs a combined 55-65 starts out of Wood and Prior for his team to have any real chance of overcoming St. Louis in the Central. Realistically, however, it’s hard to expect any more than the 43 starts the two combined for last year, and that won’t be enough.
3. Houston Astros
Pitchers: There is no shortage of veteran leadership at the top of the rotation, as 42-year-old Roger Clemens has returned for at least one more year. The 2004 Cy Young Award winner (18-4, 2.98) showed he still has plenty in the tank. Clemens is joined by Roy Oswalt (20-10, 3.49) and a returning Andy Pettitte (6-4, 3.90 in 15 starts), who is coming off major elbow surgery. Youngster Brandon Backe (5-3, 4.30) was impressive in a second-half callup, and he pitched well for Houston in the playoffs. The Astros are undecided on their fifth starter, but it will be either Brandon Duckworth (1-2, 6.86 in 19 games) or Ezequiel Astacio (13-10, 3.89 in AA). They don’t need a fifth starter until April 16, so manager Phil Garner has time to make up his mind.
With Brad Lidge (1.90 ERA, 29 saves in 33 chances, 157 strikeouts in 95 innings) available to shut the door every night, the Astros feel they have a big advantage over Central Division rivals. While they certainly do, they are at a disadvantage when it comes to have the bullpen depth to get leads into the ninth inning so Lidge can slam the door. Holdovers Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Chad Harville, and Mike Gallo are joined by Pete Munro and possibly Russ Springer in the relief corps. If they can find the right combination of arms for the seventh and eighth innings, the Astros will cut into the 23 blown saves they gave up last year, most of which happened before Lidge became closer.
Position players: Outside of not having decided on a starting center fielder and leadoff hitter, the Astros are set on offense. Veterans Craig Biggio (.281-24-63) and Jeff Bagwell (.266-27-89) are back, but both saw their numbers decline a bit last year. Biggio is 39 and Bagwell 36, so further decline is anticipated. Lance Berkman (.316-30-106) is on the shelf for the first part of the season with a knee injury, so with Carlos Beltran now a Met, the Astros don’t have a lot of established punch to work with. They’ll need big years out of holdovers Morgan Ensberg (.275-10-66) and Adam Everett (.273-8-31), along with youngsters Chris Burke and Jason Lane. 23-year-old Willy Taveras (.335-2-27, 55 stolen bases in AA) appears to be the favorite to lead off and start in center field, but Garner has reservations about having a player jump from AA and immediately become a starter.
Overall analysis: Garner has a real challenge this year. The Astros rode Clemens, Beltran, and Lidge to a playoff spot with a great second-half run. To duplicate that, they need a number of things: Pettitte needs to be healthy, Clemens must be sharp, the bullpen has to be able to get leads to Lidge so he’s not overworked with a multitude of two-inning saves, and the offense needs to find a way to score runs without Beltran and without Berkman for a time. It won’t be easy to do it, unless Biggio and Bagwell find the fountain of youth. The Astros still have a chance to finish second, but they’ll need the Cubs to falter. If things go bad in a hurry in Houston, they could find themselves in the bottom half of this division.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers: The Brewers are set in the first two positions in the starting rotation, but the other three jobs are still up in the air as we approach Opening Day. The ace of the staff is Ben Sheets (12-14, 2.70, franchise-record 264 strikeouts), who emerged last year as one of the best pitchers in the National League. Doug Davis (12-12, 3.39) serves as the second starter. The rest of the rotation will probably change at least a couple times during the season, as the team tries to find the right combination of arms. Victor Santos (11-12, 4.97; 3-9, 5.97 after the All-Star break) tailed off last season, and didn’t have a good spring, so there’s a chance he could lose the third position in the rotation. Chris Capuano (6-8, 4.99) had injury problems last year, but has looked good this spring, as has probable fifth starter Gary Glover (2-1, 3.50 in four games).
The trades of Danny Kolb and Luis Vizcaino left the closer’s job open, as well as the primary setup role. It appears that Mike Adams (2-3, 3.40) will take over as closer, with the Brewers relying on righthander Justin Lehr and youngsters like Matt Wise and Julio Santana, along with veteran Ricky Bottalico in setup roles. Bottalico has experience as a closer, though it’s become clear this spring that the Brewers don’t want to use him in that role.
Position players: This is where general manager Doug Melvin is hoping for noticeable improvement in the team’s play. After the All-Star Break, the Brewers scored just 259 runs (15th in the NL) and had a miserable .237 team batting average (16th). Melvin hopes the addition of former White Sox masher Carlos Lee (.305-31-99) is the tonic. Lee, a righthander, will bat between lefties Lyle Overbay (.301-16-87) and Geoff Jenkins (.264-27-93). The Brewers are also hopeful that some work done on hitting fundamentals by journeyman third baseman Russell Branyan (.234-11-27) will help him cut down on his strikeouts. Branyan is projected to platoon at third with Wes Helms, who is trying to battle back from a miserable season (.263-4-28 in 92 games). Melvin signed veteran Damian Miller (.272-9-58 in Oakland) to become the everyday catcher. Brady Clark (.280-7-46) takes over as the leadoff man and starting center fielder for Scott Podsednik, who was traded to the White Sox in the Lee deal.
Overall analysis: The Brewers have a chance to make some noise this season (by their horrific standards, that means finish .500 or slightly better). They’ll need their young pitchers to step up in a hurry, and the offense needs contributions from bottom-of-the-order guys like Miller and rookie shortstop J.J. Hardy. It appears Hardy is the only prospect who will start the season on the big club, meaning that barring injury, it will be a little while longer before we hear from guys like Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and David Krynzel, who have established themselves as the future of this club. If Houston falters, the Brewers have a chance to sneak into third, but fourth place is a more likely destination. Things are definitely looking up in the Brew City.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers: There is some reason for optimism in Cincinnati, as the Reds think they’ve solidified the top of their starting rotation. After years of arm problems, Paul Wilson (11-6, 4.36) has returned to the top of his game. He’s joined by former Phillie and Twin Eric Milton (14-6, 4.75), who was signed as a free agent. Milton’s ERA was hideous, but he found ways to win games thanks to some tremendous run support. Also added to the rotation in the offseason was former Angel Ramon Ortiz (5-7, 4.43), who was bounced between their rotation and bullpen and, it seemed, fell out of favor with manager Mike Scioscia. Ortiz is a former 16-game winner who has the ability to back up Wilson and Milton. Aaron Harang (10-9, 4.86) and former Yankee farmhand Brandon Claussen (2-8, 6.14) round out the rotation. Harang was impressive at times last season, while Claussen really struggled with the Reds, allowing 115 baserunners in just 66 innings.
Danny Graves (3.95 ERA, 41 saves in 50 chances) still anchors the bullpen. Graves, 31, isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but he relies on a deadly sinker to get hitters out. The Reds signed former Angel Ben Weber, who missed most of last season with carpal tunnel syndrome, in hopes that he could regain his strength and velocity. Righthanders Ryan Wagner and Jose Acevedo are joined by lefthanded veteran Kent Mercker in the bullpen.
Position players: If 35-year-old Ken Griffey, Jr., can stay healthy, the Reds have the pieces in place for a high-octane offense. Griffey (.253-20-60) lasted 83 games last year. The Reds also have 23-year-old Wily Mo Pena (.259-26-66), 25-year-old Adam Dunn (.266-46-102, 195 strikeouts), and 24-year-old Austin Kearns (.230-9-32) available to play in the outfield. Mainstay Sean Casey (.324-24-99) is back at first base. With the retirement of Barry Larkin, the Reds will have a new starting shortstop for the first time in about a hundred or so years. The honor on Opening Day will likely go to Felipe Lopez (.242 in 79 games), but Anderson Machado will eventually have a chance to take that job once he recovers from a knee injury suffered in winter ball.
Overall analysis: While the Reds have some nice young talent, it doesn’t appear they have the talent or depth to compete, even in a somewhat weakened NL Central. Wilson and Milton are shaky as a one-two in any starting rotation because both are prone to giving up home runs. The rotation has some potential, but it’s not deep. The same can be said for the bullpen, where Graves needs to cut back on his workload to be more effective as the closer (too many long outings last year). The Reds don’t boast much consistent hitting in their lineup. Dunn, Pena, Ryan Freel, Griffey, Kearns, Lopez, and Jimenez all need to cut down on their strikeouts and improve their batting averages. The Reds appear to have some nice parts in place, but they won’t go anywhere until they can improve their pitching and defense.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers: No one ever doubted the stuff possessed by 23-year-old Oliver Perez. But it wasn’t until he adjusted his mechanics before last season that he was able to pitch with the control and confidence of a future star. Perez (12-10, 2.98, 239 strikeouts in 196 innings) was the best pitcher on a team of pitchers that, for the most part, underachieved terribly in 2004. Kip Wells (5-7, 4.55) battled injuries and Josh Fogg (11-10, 4.64) battled control problems. Wells throws hard, while Fogg is more of a slop-thrower. Fogg really needs to have maximum control of all his pitches to be effective. When he’s a little off, it can get ugly. Fogg has won 33 games in three years, though, so the Pirates know he can pitch. Mark Redman (11-12, 4.71 in Oakland) was acquired in the Jason Kendall trade. Redman will need to throw strikes to be effective, as he doesn’t have the overpowering stuff of Perez.
The Pirates believe their bullpen will be a strength again in 2005. Veteran closer Jose Mesa (3.25, 43 saves in 48 chances) continues in his dual role of closer and mentor. The 38-year-old has been through it all in his career, and the young pitchers on this staff look up to him. Setup man Salomon Torres tied for third in the National League with 84 appearances, and he is capable of pitching on back-to-back days (and being effective doing it) when necessary. Brian Meadows, John Grabow, and Mike Gonzalez will also work extensively out of the bullpen.
Position players: What was once a promising lineup featuring stars like Brian Giles and Jason Kendall is now a less-promising lineup featuring 2004 National League Rookie of the Year Jason Bay (.282-26-82), and not much else. Matt Lawton (.278-20-70 in Cleveland) will probably bat leadoff, followed by shortstop Jack Wilson (.308-11-59). Streak-hitting first baseman Craig Wilson (.264-29-82) needs to be more consistent at the plate, and cutting down on his 169 strikeouts of a year ago wouldn’t hurt much. The Pirates signed ageless Benito Santiago (.274-6-23) from Kansas City to take over for Kendall as the catcher. Tike Redman (.280-8-51) needs to improve his defense and baserunning, but it looks like he’ll start in center field.
Overall analysis: It doesn’t seem like this franchise has a defined direction. They have some young talent, but they also went out and signed Santiago, traded for Lawton and Redman, and brought Mesa back to be the closer again. Every team needs veterans, but the Pirates have some young players that they would probably benefit from playing over veterans who aren’t going to carry this team very far. Perez is a future star, and could win 20 games if he gets run support. He’ll be the bright spot on this team if they falter, and he has Cy Young stuff if the team plays better. With the Brewers having improved and the Reds looking to be a little better, it’s hard to see the Pirates finishing out of the basement in the Central, even if they do improve a bit over last year.
Pitchers: When the Cardinals were bounced out of the World Series in four straight by the Red Sox, one of the glaring weaknesses was a lack of front-line starting pitching. General manager Walt Jocketty was able to quickly move to acquire a much-needed staff ace, as the Cardinals traded for Oakland pitcher Mark Mulder (17-8, 4.43). Mulder faded a bit down the stretch last season, but the Cardinals don’t expect that to be a major issue. Mulder’s presence should take pressure off Chris Carpenter (15-5, 3.46), Jason Marquis (15-7, 3.41), and Jeff Suppan (16-9, 4.16). Carpenter is 29, but continues to improve, and Marquis has worked this offseason on developing a curveball and improving his stamina. Matt Morris (15-10, 4.72) has been battling shoulder problems and might not be ready for Opening Day, but he will be a factor once healthy.
32-year-old closer Jason Isringhausen (2.87 ERA, 47 saves) was practically unhittable in 2004, but wasn’t always 100 percent. The Cardinals have a pretty deep bullpen in front of him, led by righthanders Julian Tavarez and Al Reyes, along with lefties Ray King and Mike Myers. King made 86 appearances, but the specialist only threw 62 innings, as he is often called out to get one or two lefthanded hitters out. One-time starter Cal Eldred, 37, has settled into a long relief role with the Cardinals, and he put up pretty good numbers in 2004 (4-2, 3.76 in 52 games).
Position players: Even with some changes, the Cardinals are going to field a pretty tough lineup. The new leadoff man is David Eckstein (.276-2-35), signed away from the Angels. Eckstein will find ways to get on base, he’ll steal, and he’ll score plenty of runs with the crew he has hitting behind him. It starts with Larry Walker (.298-17-47 overall in 82 games), who will need the occasional day off, but can still hit for average and good power. Superstar Albert Pujols (.331-46-123) can do it all with the bat (he’s a Triple Crown waiting to happen), and he’s really improved his defense at first base. Gold Glove third baseman Scott Rolen will have trouble duplicating his 2004 numbers (.314-34-124), but anything is possible when you’re hitting behind Pujols. Veteran Jim Edmonds (.301-42-111) is coming off his best offensive year, but at age 34, how long can he play at this high of a level both offensively and defensively? The Cardinals also have Reggie Sanders (.260-22-67) and former Cub Mark Grudzielanek (.307-6-23).
Overall analysis: Mulder lost some velocity towards the end of the 2004 season; many still wonder exactly what happened to cause it. Reports out of spring training are positive, and Mulder appears ready to go. As long as he’s healthy, the Cardinals are very dangerous. They’ll have the rotation ace they so desperately needed last year, and the complementary parts are as good as any rotation in baseball. With Walker, Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds in the batting order, you know the Cardinals will score bundles of runs. As long as they can hold down the opposition consistently, this has the look of a 90-95 win team and a division champion.
2. Chicago Cubs
Pitchers: The Cubs have one of the best rotations in baseball if their frontline starters are healthy. Unfortunately for the Cubs, that’s one big “if”, because both Mark Prior 6-4, 4.02 in 21 starts) and Kerry Wood (8-9, 3.72 in 22 starts) missed significant time last season, and both are already on the shelf this spring. Without them, the Cubs’ pitching staff becomes very ordinary, though third starter Carlos Zambrano (16-8, 2.75) could be the most talented pitcher on the staff if he can control his weight. Ageless veteran Greg Maddux (16-11, 4.02) returns in search of an 18th straight season with 15 or more wins. The Cubs also have Glendon Rusch (6-2, 3.47) available for spot-starting duty. Rusch had a 3.50 ERA in his 16 starts last season. If Prior and Wood can get it together and stay healthy, the Cubs’ rotation is good enough to carry them a long way.
The Cubs still haven’t completely sorted out their bullpen situation. It appears that they’ll open the season with flammable LaTroy Hawkins (2.63 ERA, 25 saves in 34 chances) as the closer, while former closer Joe Borowski serves as a setup man. Borowski is joined in that role by capable veteran Mike Remlinger, Kyle Farnsworth, Jon Leicester, and Chad Fox. Ryan Dempster could eventually end up as the closer if he ever gets his elbow right. Fox is coming off major surgery, but has the stuff to move into the closer role.
Position players: After 13 years as a mainstay in the lineup and a beloved figure in Chicago, outfielder Sammy Sosa was dealt to Baltimore. The split was necessitated by a rough 2004 season that ended with Sosa leaving the locker room early on the final day of the season. Without Sosa in the lineup, the Cubs actually have a chance to get better (Sosa hit just .253 last year). A lot of it depends on the production of new leadoff man Corey Patterson (.266-24-72, 168 strikeouts). Patterson has good speed and a nice swing, but his strikeouts need to come down for him to be effective out of the leadoff spot. Todd Walker (.274-15-50) looks to be effective as an everyday player, as Mark Grudzielanek has moved on. With Nomar Garciaparra (.308-9-41 overall), Aramis Ramirez (.318-36-103), Derrek Lee (.278-32-98), and Jeromy Burnitz (.283-37-110 in Colorado) in the middle of the order, the Cubs should be able to generate some offense (provided Burnitz thinks he’s at Coors Field all the time; he hit .244 away from Denver last year).
Overall analysis: Besides the obvious fears regarding the health of Wood and Prior and the closer situation, the Cubs have a pretty solid team. The lineup is good, with the possible exception of a left field platoon of Todd Hollandsworth, Jason Dubois, and Jerry Hairston, Jr. Dusty Baker knows how to win, but he needs a combined 55-65 starts out of Wood and Prior for his team to have any real chance of overcoming St. Louis in the Central. Realistically, however, it’s hard to expect any more than the 43 starts the two combined for last year, and that won’t be enough.
3. Houston Astros
Pitchers: There is no shortage of veteran leadership at the top of the rotation, as 42-year-old Roger Clemens has returned for at least one more year. The 2004 Cy Young Award winner (18-4, 2.98) showed he still has plenty in the tank. Clemens is joined by Roy Oswalt (20-10, 3.49) and a returning Andy Pettitte (6-4, 3.90 in 15 starts), who is coming off major elbow surgery. Youngster Brandon Backe (5-3, 4.30) was impressive in a second-half callup, and he pitched well for Houston in the playoffs. The Astros are undecided on their fifth starter, but it will be either Brandon Duckworth (1-2, 6.86 in 19 games) or Ezequiel Astacio (13-10, 3.89 in AA). They don’t need a fifth starter until April 16, so manager Phil Garner has time to make up his mind.
With Brad Lidge (1.90 ERA, 29 saves in 33 chances, 157 strikeouts in 95 innings) available to shut the door every night, the Astros feel they have a big advantage over Central Division rivals. While they certainly do, they are at a disadvantage when it comes to have the bullpen depth to get leads into the ninth inning so Lidge can slam the door. Holdovers Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Chad Harville, and Mike Gallo are joined by Pete Munro and possibly Russ Springer in the relief corps. If they can find the right combination of arms for the seventh and eighth innings, the Astros will cut into the 23 blown saves they gave up last year, most of which happened before Lidge became closer.
Position players: Outside of not having decided on a starting center fielder and leadoff hitter, the Astros are set on offense. Veterans Craig Biggio (.281-24-63) and Jeff Bagwell (.266-27-89) are back, but both saw their numbers decline a bit last year. Biggio is 39 and Bagwell 36, so further decline is anticipated. Lance Berkman (.316-30-106) is on the shelf for the first part of the season with a knee injury, so with Carlos Beltran now a Met, the Astros don’t have a lot of established punch to work with. They’ll need big years out of holdovers Morgan Ensberg (.275-10-66) and Adam Everett (.273-8-31), along with youngsters Chris Burke and Jason Lane. 23-year-old Willy Taveras (.335-2-27, 55 stolen bases in AA) appears to be the favorite to lead off and start in center field, but Garner has reservations about having a player jump from AA and immediately become a starter.
Overall analysis: Garner has a real challenge this year. The Astros rode Clemens, Beltran, and Lidge to a playoff spot with a great second-half run. To duplicate that, they need a number of things: Pettitte needs to be healthy, Clemens must be sharp, the bullpen has to be able to get leads to Lidge so he’s not overworked with a multitude of two-inning saves, and the offense needs to find a way to score runs without Beltran and without Berkman for a time. It won’t be easy to do it, unless Biggio and Bagwell find the fountain of youth. The Astros still have a chance to finish second, but they’ll need the Cubs to falter. If things go bad in a hurry in Houston, they could find themselves in the bottom half of this division.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers: The Brewers are set in the first two positions in the starting rotation, but the other three jobs are still up in the air as we approach Opening Day. The ace of the staff is Ben Sheets (12-14, 2.70, franchise-record 264 strikeouts), who emerged last year as one of the best pitchers in the National League. Doug Davis (12-12, 3.39) serves as the second starter. The rest of the rotation will probably change at least a couple times during the season, as the team tries to find the right combination of arms. Victor Santos (11-12, 4.97; 3-9, 5.97 after the All-Star break) tailed off last season, and didn’t have a good spring, so there’s a chance he could lose the third position in the rotation. Chris Capuano (6-8, 4.99) had injury problems last year, but has looked good this spring, as has probable fifth starter Gary Glover (2-1, 3.50 in four games).
The trades of Danny Kolb and Luis Vizcaino left the closer’s job open, as well as the primary setup role. It appears that Mike Adams (2-3, 3.40) will take over as closer, with the Brewers relying on righthander Justin Lehr and youngsters like Matt Wise and Julio Santana, along with veteran Ricky Bottalico in setup roles. Bottalico has experience as a closer, though it’s become clear this spring that the Brewers don’t want to use him in that role.
Position players: This is where general manager Doug Melvin is hoping for noticeable improvement in the team’s play. After the All-Star Break, the Brewers scored just 259 runs (15th in the NL) and had a miserable .237 team batting average (16th). Melvin hopes the addition of former White Sox masher Carlos Lee (.305-31-99) is the tonic. Lee, a righthander, will bat between lefties Lyle Overbay (.301-16-87) and Geoff Jenkins (.264-27-93). The Brewers are also hopeful that some work done on hitting fundamentals by journeyman third baseman Russell Branyan (.234-11-27) will help him cut down on his strikeouts. Branyan is projected to platoon at third with Wes Helms, who is trying to battle back from a miserable season (.263-4-28 in 92 games). Melvin signed veteran Damian Miller (.272-9-58 in Oakland) to become the everyday catcher. Brady Clark (.280-7-46) takes over as the leadoff man and starting center fielder for Scott Podsednik, who was traded to the White Sox in the Lee deal.
Overall analysis: The Brewers have a chance to make some noise this season (by their horrific standards, that means finish .500 or slightly better). They’ll need their young pitchers to step up in a hurry, and the offense needs contributions from bottom-of-the-order guys like Miller and rookie shortstop J.J. Hardy. It appears Hardy is the only prospect who will start the season on the big club, meaning that barring injury, it will be a little while longer before we hear from guys like Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and David Krynzel, who have established themselves as the future of this club. If Houston falters, the Brewers have a chance to sneak into third, but fourth place is a more likely destination. Things are definitely looking up in the Brew City.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers: There is some reason for optimism in Cincinnati, as the Reds think they’ve solidified the top of their starting rotation. After years of arm problems, Paul Wilson (11-6, 4.36) has returned to the top of his game. He’s joined by former Phillie and Twin Eric Milton (14-6, 4.75), who was signed as a free agent. Milton’s ERA was hideous, but he found ways to win games thanks to some tremendous run support. Also added to the rotation in the offseason was former Angel Ramon Ortiz (5-7, 4.43), who was bounced between their rotation and bullpen and, it seemed, fell out of favor with manager Mike Scioscia. Ortiz is a former 16-game winner who has the ability to back up Wilson and Milton. Aaron Harang (10-9, 4.86) and former Yankee farmhand Brandon Claussen (2-8, 6.14) round out the rotation. Harang was impressive at times last season, while Claussen really struggled with the Reds, allowing 115 baserunners in just 66 innings.
Danny Graves (3.95 ERA, 41 saves in 50 chances) still anchors the bullpen. Graves, 31, isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but he relies on a deadly sinker to get hitters out. The Reds signed former Angel Ben Weber, who missed most of last season with carpal tunnel syndrome, in hopes that he could regain his strength and velocity. Righthanders Ryan Wagner and Jose Acevedo are joined by lefthanded veteran Kent Mercker in the bullpen.
Position players: If 35-year-old Ken Griffey, Jr., can stay healthy, the Reds have the pieces in place for a high-octane offense. Griffey (.253-20-60) lasted 83 games last year. The Reds also have 23-year-old Wily Mo Pena (.259-26-66), 25-year-old Adam Dunn (.266-46-102, 195 strikeouts), and 24-year-old Austin Kearns (.230-9-32) available to play in the outfield. Mainstay Sean Casey (.324-24-99) is back at first base. With the retirement of Barry Larkin, the Reds will have a new starting shortstop for the first time in about a hundred or so years. The honor on Opening Day will likely go to Felipe Lopez (.242 in 79 games), but Anderson Machado will eventually have a chance to take that job once he recovers from a knee injury suffered in winter ball.
Overall analysis: While the Reds have some nice young talent, it doesn’t appear they have the talent or depth to compete, even in a somewhat weakened NL Central. Wilson and Milton are shaky as a one-two in any starting rotation because both are prone to giving up home runs. The rotation has some potential, but it’s not deep. The same can be said for the bullpen, where Graves needs to cut back on his workload to be more effective as the closer (too many long outings last year). The Reds don’t boast much consistent hitting in their lineup. Dunn, Pena, Ryan Freel, Griffey, Kearns, Lopez, and Jimenez all need to cut down on their strikeouts and improve their batting averages. The Reds appear to have some nice parts in place, but they won’t go anywhere until they can improve their pitching and defense.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers: No one ever doubted the stuff possessed by 23-year-old Oliver Perez. But it wasn’t until he adjusted his mechanics before last season that he was able to pitch with the control and confidence of a future star. Perez (12-10, 2.98, 239 strikeouts in 196 innings) was the best pitcher on a team of pitchers that, for the most part, underachieved terribly in 2004. Kip Wells (5-7, 4.55) battled injuries and Josh Fogg (11-10, 4.64) battled control problems. Wells throws hard, while Fogg is more of a slop-thrower. Fogg really needs to have maximum control of all his pitches to be effective. When he’s a little off, it can get ugly. Fogg has won 33 games in three years, though, so the Pirates know he can pitch. Mark Redman (11-12, 4.71 in Oakland) was acquired in the Jason Kendall trade. Redman will need to throw strikes to be effective, as he doesn’t have the overpowering stuff of Perez.
The Pirates believe their bullpen will be a strength again in 2005. Veteran closer Jose Mesa (3.25, 43 saves in 48 chances) continues in his dual role of closer and mentor. The 38-year-old has been through it all in his career, and the young pitchers on this staff look up to him. Setup man Salomon Torres tied for third in the National League with 84 appearances, and he is capable of pitching on back-to-back days (and being effective doing it) when necessary. Brian Meadows, John Grabow, and Mike Gonzalez will also work extensively out of the bullpen.
Position players: What was once a promising lineup featuring stars like Brian Giles and Jason Kendall is now a less-promising lineup featuring 2004 National League Rookie of the Year Jason Bay (.282-26-82), and not much else. Matt Lawton (.278-20-70 in Cleveland) will probably bat leadoff, followed by shortstop Jack Wilson (.308-11-59). Streak-hitting first baseman Craig Wilson (.264-29-82) needs to be more consistent at the plate, and cutting down on his 169 strikeouts of a year ago wouldn’t hurt much. The Pirates signed ageless Benito Santiago (.274-6-23) from Kansas City to take over for Kendall as the catcher. Tike Redman (.280-8-51) needs to improve his defense and baserunning, but it looks like he’ll start in center field.
Overall analysis: It doesn’t seem like this franchise has a defined direction. They have some young talent, but they also went out and signed Santiago, traded for Lawton and Redman, and brought Mesa back to be the closer again. Every team needs veterans, but the Pirates have some young players that they would probably benefit from playing over veterans who aren’t going to carry this team very far. Perez is a future star, and could win 20 games if he gets run support. He’ll be the bright spot on this team if they falter, and he has Cy Young stuff if the team plays better. With the Brewers having improved and the Reds looking to be a little better, it’s hard to see the Pirates finishing out of the basement in the Central, even if they do improve a bit over last year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)