06/06/06. Ooh. Scary. I'm sure it's going to be a hell of a party in Hell, Michigan, tonight. And someone will falsely claim that the world is going to end. And if ESPN lets John Kruk be on Baseball Tonight, he will probably say something stupid about baseball. Really, it's going to be a normal day for most of us.
Ty Who? Conklin. And now he's Edmonton's only hope for a Stanley Cup.
Sorry, Oilers fans. Luckily for you, there are already a goodly number of Stanley Cup Champion banners hanging in Rexall Place, because you're probably not adding another one.
Counterpoint...This has been a weird year for goalies. There's been virtually no rhyme or reason to anything. Carolina is living proof of this, as their established starter, Martin Gerber, flopped badly in the first two games of the conference quarterfinals. Whoda thunk that Gerber would give way to Cam Ward after two games, and Carolina would find themselves in the Finals? Whoda thunk that Ilya Bryzgalov would take over for Jean-Sebastien Giguere and lead the Mighty Ducks to the conference finals? How about Ray Emery (!) leading Ottawa to the conference semis?
(WARNING: Run-on sentence ahead)
In a year where unknowns like Bryzgalov and Ward, along with young goaltenders like Ryan Miller, Vesa Toskala, Cristobal Huet, and Tomas Vokoun became stars, and a journeyman like Dwayne Roloson can find his way to the spotlight, all while established studs like Martin Brodeur, Marty Turco, Nikolai Khabibulin, and Ed Belfour busted out the golf clubs early, who's to say that Ty Conklin can't get hot and help his team win four more games?
(END run-on sentence)
Congrats to Carolina on a stirring comeback win in Game One, but here's hoping they take Conklin (or Jussi Markanen) lightly, because I don't think Edmonton is dead. And they'll respond to any life they can get at this point.
Congrats to ESPN. The "Worldwide Leader in Hype" has again shown their true colors. I'm not an ESPN hater, but there is little doubt that the powers-that-be refuse to acknowledge the existence of anything they don't have a working relationship with. The NHL isn't on a level with the NFL, MLB, or the NBA, but they certainly deserve better treatment than they got last night on SportsCenter, when it was 45 minutes into the show before there was any mention of the Stanley Cup Finals starting. Some 16-year-old brat trying to play in a tournament she shouldn't be allowed to play in, the 1000th Yankees-Red Sox game of the season, a recap of Sunday's NASCAR race, highlights of the spelling bee from last Thursday, and a rerun of a piece with Dwyane Wade that aired Sunday were all more important than Game One of a major professional sports championship series.
I will give credit where it is due. ESPNEWS aired some good coverage during the day on Monday, with analysis from MulletMan and some stories from the teams' morning skates. That was cool. Too bad that I was probably the only person watching.
How does this happen? How do two teams play a match without anyone knowing what happened? Furthermore, how does this happen on the eve of the world's biggest sporting event, the World Cup? The US and Angola played a friendly match yesterday in final preparation for the World Cup, which starts on Friday. Despite the fact that numerous media types are assembled to cover the event, and fans are making their way to Germany from points across the planet, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT HAPPENED, except that our boys won 1-0 on a goal by Brian McBride. An Angolan spokesperson says that Claudio Reyna, who has been hurt, was impressive, but a US spokesperson wouldn't even confirm that Reyna played, and the Americans played without jersey numbers or names.
Seriously, in this era of information, how does this happen? I'm impressed!
The World Cup is more wide-open than people think. Everyone thinks that Brazil is a heavy favorite, or so it seems. While I don't think it would be smart to place a monetary wager on anyone else, I also don't think that Brazil is a slam-dunk to win.
I think that, like in other sports, international soccer is gaining some parity. I think it's a result of a few things.
Defensive schemes are more elaborate. Like in hockey, but without all the clutching and grabbing and stick-holding. Teams are finding more ways to slow down more skilled opponents.
Federations are becoming more committed to the sport. US Soccer is a prime example. They got serious about being competitive after the embarrassment that was France 1998. They started reaping the benefits of that seriousness when Bruce Arena led them to the quarterfinals in 2002, and hope to take another positive step this year, though it will be tough for them in this group.
There's more skill out there. I think this is true of many sports. It's not meant as a knock on past eras. I just feel that you have a greater number of skill players, and they're more spread out than they used to be. Combine this with the increased ability of teams to play good, sound defense, and you are bound to have more teams that can be competitive at the international level.
That said, soccer isn't at an NFL level of parity yet. Brazil, England, and Germany are the top dogs, and it would be a great surprise if at least two of them don't make the semifinals.
More World Cup picks coming later this week.
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
Monday, June 05, 2006
Randomization: 06/05/06
Who gets Stanley? The NHL Stanley Cup Finals begin tonight in Raleigh, North Carolina, where the Carolina Hurricanes will host the first two games against the Edmonton Oilers. The series starts later on the calendar than usual this year for two reasons: 1) the Olympic break set the NHL back a couple weeks, and since the season didn't start early, and 2) some Sesame Street show was booked at RBC Center in Raleigh over the weekend. And, hilariously, it's not the only potential pre-emption of the Finals due to an arena booking, because Dora the Explorer, a show that already interrupted the Buffalo-Ottawa series in Ottawa, is booked for June 17 at Rexall Place in Edmonton. Apparently, that conflict will get worked out.
As for the hockey, I've broken down both teams before, and won't waste a lot of your time doing it all again. Here are three factors that will sway the series, along with my prediction.
(By the way, I went 6-1 in the East playoffs, missing only the conference finals. I went a more modest 4-3 in the West, where I didn't miss a series after the first round. And of the 14 series, 11 have been won by the team I was rooting for.)
Can Edmonton break the "extra rest leads to failure" trend that we have seen in these playoffs?
There's a side effect to earning a few extra days of rest by winning your series decisively while the other team has to play a six- or seven-game series to move on. Edmonton saw this first-hand, beating a more rested Anaheim team in the conference finals. Anaheim had swept Colorado quite decisively, while Edmonton had to battle through six games to get by San Jose.
Carolina has also seen the effect of extra rest, as they pounded a rusty New Jersey team 6-0 in Game One of the East semifinals, on their way to a five-game series win.
In this series, Edmonton has to deal with the extra rest. They ended their series against Anaheim in just five games, wrapping it up on May 27, and they haven't played since. Carolina, meanwhile, has only three days of rest after their conference final win over Buffalo, which wrapped up on Thursday. That would lead the lay-person to believe that Carolina is set up for a series win here.
The flip side of the argument? The three most prominent examples of a more rested team being more rusty than rested involve New Jersey in the East semis, Colorado in the West semis, and Anaheim in the West final. All three teams were either completely healthy or very close to it, and the rest was just that. Rest. There were no bumps or bruises that needed extra time to heal. There were no illnesses that guys needed time to recover from. Nobody was able to play in their team's next series that wouldn't have been able to play without the long rest.
Edmonton is a different animal. The Oilers had to deal with a nasty flu bug during the conference finals. A number of players were very sick, and a couple guys missed time because of their illnesses, losing significant weight in the process. There were rumblings that the Oilers were using this "flu outbreak" as a way to hide actual injuries suffered by some of the guys on the roster.
Either way, it could be argued that Edmonton will benefit from the rest, because it allows them to get healthy. They traveled East late last week, which was a smart move, because it allowed them to get acclimated to the heat and humidity they'll experience outside, and it allowed them to get away from the frenzied atmosphere of Edmonton. The Oilers have question marks, though, as a result of the rest. Can they get back to the frantic pace they were playing at on both ends of the ice? Can Dwayne Roloson stay sharp in goal?
We'll start getting answers later this evening.
Does Carolina have anything remotely resembling an answer for Chris Pronger?
Pronger is teetering on the edge of Conn Smythe contention entering this series, and the favorable matchup that awaits may push him up many voters' lists. I have nothing against Carolina's players. They have smart defensive forwards up front, and their defensive corps is a quick group that can really move the puck. But they don't have an answer for Pronger's physical play, puck-handling, or power-play prowess.
Pronger is guaranteed to be on the ice for upwards of 31 minutes a game as long as he's healthy. And he is healthy, by the way. He'll probably be matched up a lot with Eric Stall, and after seeing what Pronger has done to Teemu Selanne and Joe Thornton in the past two series, this is probably not a favorable matchup for the Hurricanes.
Will the goaltending battle go to the grizzled veteran or the relatively unknown rookie?
Cam Ward: 22.
Dwayne Roloson: 36.
Two first-time finalist netminders and two guys who no one could have figured would be where they are now. Ward entered the playoffs as the backup to Martin Gerber, who had a strong Olympics and looked poised to lead his team on a long run in the postseason before he fell apart in the conference quarterfinals against Montreal. Roloson is the starter for the eighth seed in the West, a team that was dismissed as a contender by most before the playoffs even started. Yet Roloson has posted a .931 save percentage in the postseason, and Ward has a 2.07 goals against average.
Neither goaltender has any obvious weaknesses, but Edmonton's defense has done a much better job of keeping pressure off their goaltender than Carolina's has. The Oilers may allow more shots, but it seems like, in most games, the Oilers have more quality scoring chances than their opponent. That's a huge advantage for Edmonton.
My pick?
I'm riding the underdog train. I have nothing against Carolina. (I'm not one of these snobs who thinks that St. Louis is almost too far south to be playing NHL hockey. And I don't hate the Hurricanes for moving out of little ol' Hartford, either.) But I'm rooting for Edmonton, and I think the Oilers will ride Roloson to another win. This one comes in six games, and it will set off quite a celebration on Whyte Avenue.
By the way, one last plea here to NBC. Please air the singing of the national anthems in Edmonton before Game 3 on Saturday. I don't want to be forced to listen to it in CHED out of Edmonton again because you guys are too lazy to reconfigure your pregame format to show it to us live.
This week...World Cup stuff starting tomorrow. More baseball all week. More hockey all week. And I might even preview the NBA Finals, which start Thursday night.
As for the hockey, I've broken down both teams before, and won't waste a lot of your time doing it all again. Here are three factors that will sway the series, along with my prediction.
(By the way, I went 6-1 in the East playoffs, missing only the conference finals. I went a more modest 4-3 in the West, where I didn't miss a series after the first round. And of the 14 series, 11 have been won by the team I was rooting for.)
Can Edmonton break the "extra rest leads to failure" trend that we have seen in these playoffs?
There's a side effect to earning a few extra days of rest by winning your series decisively while the other team has to play a six- or seven-game series to move on. Edmonton saw this first-hand, beating a more rested Anaheim team in the conference finals. Anaheim had swept Colorado quite decisively, while Edmonton had to battle through six games to get by San Jose.
Carolina has also seen the effect of extra rest, as they pounded a rusty New Jersey team 6-0 in Game One of the East semifinals, on their way to a five-game series win.
In this series, Edmonton has to deal with the extra rest. They ended their series against Anaheim in just five games, wrapping it up on May 27, and they haven't played since. Carolina, meanwhile, has only three days of rest after their conference final win over Buffalo, which wrapped up on Thursday. That would lead the lay-person to believe that Carolina is set up for a series win here.
The flip side of the argument? The three most prominent examples of a more rested team being more rusty than rested involve New Jersey in the East semis, Colorado in the West semis, and Anaheim in the West final. All three teams were either completely healthy or very close to it, and the rest was just that. Rest. There were no bumps or bruises that needed extra time to heal. There were no illnesses that guys needed time to recover from. Nobody was able to play in their team's next series that wouldn't have been able to play without the long rest.
Edmonton is a different animal. The Oilers had to deal with a nasty flu bug during the conference finals. A number of players were very sick, and a couple guys missed time because of their illnesses, losing significant weight in the process. There were rumblings that the Oilers were using this "flu outbreak" as a way to hide actual injuries suffered by some of the guys on the roster.
Either way, it could be argued that Edmonton will benefit from the rest, because it allows them to get healthy. They traveled East late last week, which was a smart move, because it allowed them to get acclimated to the heat and humidity they'll experience outside, and it allowed them to get away from the frenzied atmosphere of Edmonton. The Oilers have question marks, though, as a result of the rest. Can they get back to the frantic pace they were playing at on both ends of the ice? Can Dwayne Roloson stay sharp in goal?
We'll start getting answers later this evening.
Does Carolina have anything remotely resembling an answer for Chris Pronger?
Pronger is teetering on the edge of Conn Smythe contention entering this series, and the favorable matchup that awaits may push him up many voters' lists. I have nothing against Carolina's players. They have smart defensive forwards up front, and their defensive corps is a quick group that can really move the puck. But they don't have an answer for Pronger's physical play, puck-handling, or power-play prowess.
Pronger is guaranteed to be on the ice for upwards of 31 minutes a game as long as he's healthy. And he is healthy, by the way. He'll probably be matched up a lot with Eric Stall, and after seeing what Pronger has done to Teemu Selanne and Joe Thornton in the past two series, this is probably not a favorable matchup for the Hurricanes.
Will the goaltending battle go to the grizzled veteran or the relatively unknown rookie?
Cam Ward: 22.
Dwayne Roloson: 36.
Two first-time finalist netminders and two guys who no one could have figured would be where they are now. Ward entered the playoffs as the backup to Martin Gerber, who had a strong Olympics and looked poised to lead his team on a long run in the postseason before he fell apart in the conference quarterfinals against Montreal. Roloson is the starter for the eighth seed in the West, a team that was dismissed as a contender by most before the playoffs even started. Yet Roloson has posted a .931 save percentage in the postseason, and Ward has a 2.07 goals against average.
Neither goaltender has any obvious weaknesses, but Edmonton's defense has done a much better job of keeping pressure off their goaltender than Carolina's has. The Oilers may allow more shots, but it seems like, in most games, the Oilers have more quality scoring chances than their opponent. That's a huge advantage for Edmonton.
My pick?
I'm riding the underdog train. I have nothing against Carolina. (I'm not one of these snobs who thinks that St. Louis is almost too far south to be playing NHL hockey. And I don't hate the Hurricanes for moving out of little ol' Hartford, either.) But I'm rooting for Edmonton, and I think the Oilers will ride Roloson to another win. This one comes in six games, and it will set off quite a celebration on Whyte Avenue.
By the way, one last plea here to NBC. Please air the singing of the national anthems in Edmonton before Game 3 on Saturday. I don't want to be forced to listen to it in CHED out of Edmonton again because you guys are too lazy to reconfigure your pregame format to show it to us live.
This week...World Cup stuff starting tomorrow. More baseball all week. More hockey all week. And I might even preview the NBA Finals, which start Thursday night.
Thursday, June 01, 2006
Randomization: 06/01/06
Game Seven, baby. Even Jay Mariotti has to get a little jazzed for this. The Eastern Conference representative in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals will be decided tonight, as the Buffalo Sabres take their team of four defensemen to Raleigh to play the Carolina Hurricanes. The winner hosts Game One of the Finals on Monday night against Western champ Edmonton.
The Sabres have been decimated by injuries to their defensive corps, as they've lost Henrik Tallinder for the playoffs, and Teppo Numinen has not been able to play through a hip pointer. That leaves four guys manning the area in front of Ryan Miller, and those four guys could all easily log close to 30 minutes of ice time tonight. Brian Campbell, Rory Fitzpatrick, Toni Lydman, and Jay McKee are healthy, and they'd better be ready tonight. The Hurricanes will try to run the Sabres out of RBC Center tonight, and they'll be successful if the Sabres can't find a way to score early and put the pressure on the 'Canes. Buffalo's biggest flaw the last two games hasn't been Ryan Miller. It hasn't been the defense, despite the staggering lack of depth. It's been the offense.
The Sabres have missed on a large number of golden scoring chances, and it's a trend that they have to reverse if they are to survive this series and get one step closer to a championship that would invigorate the city of Buffalo and all of western New York, where the fans have suffered through those four straight Super Bowl losses with the Bills, along with the Sabres' 1998 Cup Finals run, which ended on a somewhat controversial goal by Brett Hull. If Buffalo wins tonight, it will be because they cashed in on Carolina's defensive zone mistakes and turnovers, which were happening left and right in the first period of Game 6, yet Buffalo only scored once prior to overtime.
I'm sticking with Buffalo, who I picked to make the Finals before the playoffs started. But it should be known that Carolina has to be considered the favorite to win tonight. Buffalo is too short on defensemen, and Carolina has too much speed anddiving ability skill.
Please, Ryan Miller. Please play the game of your life tonight.
32-5? To the PIRATES? The Brewers have apparently decided to suck. Hopefully, this is a short-term deal. Because good teams don't lose three straight to the Pirates by a combined score of 32-5.
Roger Clemens is back. Anyone surprised? Clemens signed another one-year deal with Houston on Wednesday. He'll make about $3.5 million.
A month.
The Astros get an ace pitcher who won't break down late in the year like Clemens did last year. And they get him at what will be a relative bargain if Clemens pitches like he has the last two seasons.
Clemens gets to play in the same organization as his son, and he gets tosweep that secret 50-game steroid suspension under the rug stay close to home.
This latest conspiracy theory (Bud Selig told Clemens to stay away until June because they caught him using steroids) is somewhat interesting. Obviously, it has merit in that Clemens is, you know, 43 and still pitching like he's 23. And with the exception of late last season, he's really never been injured in the last few years of his career. However, he signed on the day of the Astros' 54th game, and he still isn't going to play for Houston until at least June 22, which will be around Game 70 for the Astros. Why would Clemens or the Astros want a 50-game "suspension" to really last closer to 70 or 75 games? And why would Selig, even if you think he's the biggest idiot on the planet, risk something like this getting out and destroying the credibility of the "new" steroid policy at a time where Congress is still watching over baseball like I watch over my four-year old when he's riding his bike on the Lakewalk?
The Sabres have been decimated by injuries to their defensive corps, as they've lost Henrik Tallinder for the playoffs, and Teppo Numinen has not been able to play through a hip pointer. That leaves four guys manning the area in front of Ryan Miller, and those four guys could all easily log close to 30 minutes of ice time tonight. Brian Campbell, Rory Fitzpatrick, Toni Lydman, and Jay McKee are healthy, and they'd better be ready tonight. The Hurricanes will try to run the Sabres out of RBC Center tonight, and they'll be successful if the Sabres can't find a way to score early and put the pressure on the 'Canes. Buffalo's biggest flaw the last two games hasn't been Ryan Miller. It hasn't been the defense, despite the staggering lack of depth. It's been the offense.
The Sabres have missed on a large number of golden scoring chances, and it's a trend that they have to reverse if they are to survive this series and get one step closer to a championship that would invigorate the city of Buffalo and all of western New York, where the fans have suffered through those four straight Super Bowl losses with the Bills, along with the Sabres' 1998 Cup Finals run, which ended on a somewhat controversial goal by Brett Hull. If Buffalo wins tonight, it will be because they cashed in on Carolina's defensive zone mistakes and turnovers, which were happening left and right in the first period of Game 6, yet Buffalo only scored once prior to overtime.
I'm sticking with Buffalo, who I picked to make the Finals before the playoffs started. But it should be known that Carolina has to be considered the favorite to win tonight. Buffalo is too short on defensemen, and Carolina has too much speed and
Please, Ryan Miller. Please play the game of your life tonight.
32-5? To the PIRATES? The Brewers have apparently decided to suck. Hopefully, this is a short-term deal. Because good teams don't lose three straight to the Pirates by a combined score of 32-5.
Roger Clemens is back. Anyone surprised? Clemens signed another one-year deal with Houston on Wednesday. He'll make about $3.5 million.
A month.
The Astros get an ace pitcher who won't break down late in the year like Clemens did last year. And they get him at what will be a relative bargain if Clemens pitches like he has the last two seasons.
Clemens gets to play in the same organization as his son, and he gets to
This latest conspiracy theory (Bud Selig told Clemens to stay away until June because they caught him using steroids) is somewhat interesting. Obviously, it has merit in that Clemens is, you know, 43 and still pitching like he's 23. And with the exception of late last season, he's really never been injured in the last few years of his career. However, he signed on the day of the Astros' 54th game, and he still isn't going to play for Houston until at least June 22, which will be around Game 70 for the Astros. Why would Clemens or the Astros want a 50-game "suspension" to really last closer to 70 or 75 games? And why would Selig, even if you think he's the biggest idiot on the planet, risk something like this getting out and destroying the credibility of the "new" steroid policy at a time where Congress is still watching over baseball like I watch over my four-year old when he's riding his bike on the Lakewalk?
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
Randomization: 05/30/06
Memorial Day means something in baseball. Yes, it's still very early in the season. But my theory has always been that you can take a snapshot of the baseball standings on Memorial Day, and with it get an idea of how things will play out for the rest of the season. If you look at last year's Memorial Day standings, you'll find that seven of the eight playoff teams in baseball were either in first place or within 3.5 games of first place. Florida, Texas, and Baltimore were in playoff position on Memorial Day, but faded in the summer.
Drawing the same standard, here is a list of every team in baseball that is either in first place or within four games of first place right now:
Boston
New York Yankees
Toronto
Detroit
Chicago White Sox
Texas
Oakland
New York Mets
St. Louis
Arizona
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado
San Diego
San Francisco
Just keep this in mind. By the way, Atlanta is 4.5 behind the Mets, and Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are both five games back of first place in their respective divisions.
More on why Ron Gardenhire is an idiot. I like Gardy. Seems like the kind of guy you'd want to have as your manager if you were a baseball player. Well, unless you really wanted to win.
The Twins are 23-27. While they are probably already hopelessly out of the AL Central race (11.5 games out and dominated so far by the White Sox and Tigers - 4-12 combined against the two teams), they don't have a terrible record, and they have enough games coming up against crappy opponents to make you think they could pull out of this funk and have a decent season.
The pitching staff, however, is terribly thin. They don't have a truly dominant middle reliever, and their setup men (Jesse Crain and Juan Rincon) have been up-and-down so far. With that in mind, it stands to reason that the Twins would let their closer, Joe Nathan, eat some innings. After all, Nathan is one of the best in the business. 87 saves over two years. 183 strikeouts in 142 1/3 innings pitched over two years. He's good.
Of course, you wouldn't know that by watching the Twins play this season, because Nathan never pitches unless it's a save situation.
Here is a list of some of baseball's best closers (a list I think we would all agree that Joe Nathan belongs on), and the number of innings they have pitched this season:
Mariano Rivera 24 1/3
Jonathan Papelbon 26
Jason Isringhausen 18 2/3
Derrick Turnbow 22
Tom Gordon 22
Bobby Jenks 21 1/3
Brad Lidge 24 2/3
B.J. Ryan 24 2/3
Billy Wagner 24
Joe Nathan 17
With how inconsistent Rincon and Crain have been this season, it's absolutely inexplicable that Joe Nathan, who is by far the Twins' best right-handed pitcher, has only thrown 17 innings in 50 games. Ridiculous.
Even Isringhausen and Lidge, who have taken turns forgetting where home plate is, are getting more work than Nathan.
PING! Many can't stand the PING. I don't mind it, and I love watching college baseball. The NCAA Division I bracket came out yesterday, and while it doesn't lead to a pleothora of office pools around the country, there is plenty to discuss. The top eight national seeds drew little resistance. Clemson, Rice, Texas (defending champion), Alabama, Cal State-Fullerton, Nebraska, Georgia, and Georgia Tech were deserving of those seeds, and they will all likely play at home until the College World Series, if they get that far.
Of the eight, it appears that Georgia may have the toughest regional draw. The Bulldogs have to deal with two solid Florida teams, as Jacksonville and Florida State are both in that regional. Opening round opponent Sacred Heart shouldn't be a real problem for the Bulldogs. Also noteworthy there is the regional in Lincoln, where Miami and San Francisco are the second and third seeds, respectively. Miami is always dangerous at tournament time, and the Dons of San Francisco won the West Coast regular-season title before dropping two straight at home to Pepperdine in the WCC championship series.
The easiest draw, predictably, went to Clemson (Elon, Mississippi State (!), and UNC-Asheville, who is sub-.500 overall). The Tigers should stay hot by blowing through that regional. Another easy draw, surprisingly, went to North Carolina, who is unseeded nationally, but got Winthrop (serious struggles down the stretch), UNC-Wilmington, and Maine (team ERA over 5). The Tar Heels lost to Winthrop earlier in the season, but the Eagles have really had trouble since that win, blowing the Big South regular season title before losing in the league tournament.
If you're wondering, there are 16 regionals with four teams in each of them. The regional champs are paired off in eight "super regional" series next weekend, and the College World Series begins in Omaha, Nebraska, on June 16. I'll post a TV schedule for the regionals later in the week, after I figure out if any of the regional FSNs are picking up some games, assuming they're allowed to.
Drawing the same standard, here is a list of every team in baseball that is either in first place or within four games of first place right now:
Boston
New York Yankees
Toronto
Detroit
Chicago White Sox
Texas
Oakland
New York Mets
St. Louis
Arizona
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado
San Diego
San Francisco
Just keep this in mind. By the way, Atlanta is 4.5 behind the Mets, and Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are both five games back of first place in their respective divisions.
More on why Ron Gardenhire is an idiot. I like Gardy. Seems like the kind of guy you'd want to have as your manager if you were a baseball player. Well, unless you really wanted to win.
The Twins are 23-27. While they are probably already hopelessly out of the AL Central race (11.5 games out and dominated so far by the White Sox and Tigers - 4-12 combined against the two teams), they don't have a terrible record, and they have enough games coming up against crappy opponents to make you think they could pull out of this funk and have a decent season.
The pitching staff, however, is terribly thin. They don't have a truly dominant middle reliever, and their setup men (Jesse Crain and Juan Rincon) have been up-and-down so far. With that in mind, it stands to reason that the Twins would let their closer, Joe Nathan, eat some innings. After all, Nathan is one of the best in the business. 87 saves over two years. 183 strikeouts in 142 1/3 innings pitched over two years. He's good.
Of course, you wouldn't know that by watching the Twins play this season, because Nathan never pitches unless it's a save situation.
Here is a list of some of baseball's best closers (a list I think we would all agree that Joe Nathan belongs on), and the number of innings they have pitched this season:
Mariano Rivera 24 1/3
Jonathan Papelbon 26
Jason Isringhausen 18 2/3
Derrick Turnbow 22
Tom Gordon 22
Bobby Jenks 21 1/3
Brad Lidge 24 2/3
B.J. Ryan 24 2/3
Billy Wagner 24
Joe Nathan 17
With how inconsistent Rincon and Crain have been this season, it's absolutely inexplicable that Joe Nathan, who is by far the Twins' best right-handed pitcher, has only thrown 17 innings in 50 games. Ridiculous.
Even Isringhausen and Lidge, who have taken turns forgetting where home plate is, are getting more work than Nathan.
PING! Many can't stand the PING. I don't mind it, and I love watching college baseball. The NCAA Division I bracket came out yesterday, and while it doesn't lead to a pleothora of office pools around the country, there is plenty to discuss. The top eight national seeds drew little resistance. Clemson, Rice, Texas (defending champion), Alabama, Cal State-Fullerton, Nebraska, Georgia, and Georgia Tech were deserving of those seeds, and they will all likely play at home until the College World Series, if they get that far.
Of the eight, it appears that Georgia may have the toughest regional draw. The Bulldogs have to deal with two solid Florida teams, as Jacksonville and Florida State are both in that regional. Opening round opponent Sacred Heart shouldn't be a real problem for the Bulldogs. Also noteworthy there is the regional in Lincoln, where Miami and San Francisco are the second and third seeds, respectively. Miami is always dangerous at tournament time, and the Dons of San Francisco won the West Coast regular-season title before dropping two straight at home to Pepperdine in the WCC championship series.
The easiest draw, predictably, went to Clemson (Elon, Mississippi State (!), and UNC-Asheville, who is sub-.500 overall). The Tigers should stay hot by blowing through that regional. Another easy draw, surprisingly, went to North Carolina, who is unseeded nationally, but got Winthrop (serious struggles down the stretch), UNC-Wilmington, and Maine (team ERA over 5). The Tar Heels lost to Winthrop earlier in the season, but the Eagles have really had trouble since that win, blowing the Big South regular season title before losing in the league tournament.
If you're wondering, there are 16 regionals with four teams in each of them. The regional champs are paired off in eight "super regional" series next weekend, and the College World Series begins in Omaha, Nebraska, on June 16. I'll post a TV schedule for the regionals later in the week, after I figure out if any of the regional FSNs are picking up some games, assuming they're allowed to.
Friday, May 26, 2006
Randomization: 05/26/06
This is really stupid. There's this movement within youth and high school sports to regulate sportsmanship. We've seen some leagues eschew the practice of actually keeping score in games, and the latest movement comes from Connecticut, where they are trying to artifically and automatically keep the score down in games.
But you can't force teams to keep the score down without insulting their opponent. If the problem you are facing as a high-school sports organization is that you have teams winning football games 90-0, the answer isn't to force the winning team to hold their score below 50 to avoid having their coach suspended.
The answer is to figure out why a team that is so bad that it's even possible to lose a football game 90-0 is playing that opponent in the first place. Are they in a conference that they shouldn't be in? Are they in a class/division that they shouldn't be in? Are they simply not competitive?
Forcing teams to keep their margin of victory under 50 doesn't teach sportsmanship. It teaches athletes and teams to insult their opponents, and that's not what we should be teaching young athletes.
Racing across America. One of the great traditions of Memorial Day weekend is the Indianapolis 500. The open-wheel racing circuit's signature event starts off a full day of big-time racing on Sunday. Sam Hornish, Jr., has the pole for the race, but all eyes are obviously on Danica Patrick. You can figure it out without me posting one of the FHM pictures.
ABC will have a camera on Patrick throughout the race, and they certainly are hopeful that she can perform as well as she did last year, when she led a lap and ended up fourth.
Meanwhile, the NASCAR circuit follows the Indy 500 with their annual marathon race in Charlotte. The Coca Cola 600 starts in the daylight and will end under the lights at Lowe's Motor Speedway. Scott Riggs has the pole, but in this race, all eyes will be on Jimmie Johnson, for different reasons than Patrick in the Indy race. Johnson is trying to four-peat as the Coca Cola 600 winner after winning the Nextel All-Star Challenge race at Lowe's last weekend. Everyone in NASCAR knows that Johnson's car is the car to beat in this race, but I have a sneaking suspicion that someone from the group of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, and Matt Kenseth will run well enough to keep Johnson out of Victory Lane.
Ladies and gentlemen, Larry King. The Royals have lost 13 straight and are on pace to be worse than the 1962 New York Mets and the 2003 Detroit Tigers. There are other teams, namely the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have experienced a similar lack of success in recent years. But with so many talented young players on the roster, it's hard to imagine the Pirates continuing to suck. The Royals, meanwhile, have a terrible major-league team that has virtually no potential. It's a good baseball town that is being ruined by a bad organization . . . Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will officially label himself as a "hypocrite" tonight when he signs the Twins stadium bill. I really wish they would have gone ahead with a referendum, because it would have been interesting what step they would have tried to take after it failed 60/40 . . . Edmonton blew a chance to clinch a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals, getting outshot 25-3 in the first period in route to a 6-3 loss to Anaheim. It was, by far, Edmonton's worst playoff performance in years, but credit the Ducks for taking it to Edmonton practically from the opening faceoff. The Oilers will try again on Saturday in Anaheim, where they won the first two games of the series . . . OLN sucks. Their horrendous coverage, which lacks any depth whatsoever, is not doing any favors to the struggling NHL . . . Speaking of OLN, someone please tell color man Neil Smith, working the Edmonton-Anaheim series, to stop trying to crack jokes. He's about as funny as a pipe bomb.
Enjoy the weekend. Probably not going to post on Monday, but will definitely be back Tuesday. We'll recap all the hockey and hoops and talk more baseball.
The football committee of the Connecticut Interscholastic Athletic Conference, which governs high school sports, is adopting a "score management" policy that will suspend coaches whose teams win by more than 50 points.I can't put in words how dumb this is. I am all for sportsmanship. I'm all for not intentionally running up the score against an inferior opponent, and I know that in all non-professional levels of sports, you will have strong teams that face weaker opponents. It's a reality of life for high school and college teams. They know that they will be on one end or the other of blowouts over the course of the season.
A rout is considered an unsportsmanlike infraction and the coach of the offending team will be disqualified from coaching the next game, said Tony Mosa, assistant executive director of the Cheshire, Conn.-based conference.
"We were concerned with any coach running up the game. There's no need for it," Mosa said. "This is something that we really have been discussing for the last couple of years. There were a number of games that were played where the difference of scores were 60 points or more. It's not focused on any one particular person."
But you can't force teams to keep the score down without insulting their opponent. If the problem you are facing as a high-school sports organization is that you have teams winning football games 90-0, the answer isn't to force the winning team to hold their score below 50 to avoid having their coach suspended.
The answer is to figure out why a team that is so bad that it's even possible to lose a football game 90-0 is playing that opponent in the first place. Are they in a conference that they shouldn't be in? Are they in a class/division that they shouldn't be in? Are they simply not competitive?
Forcing teams to keep their margin of victory under 50 doesn't teach sportsmanship. It teaches athletes and teams to insult their opponents, and that's not what we should be teaching young athletes.
Racing across America. One of the great traditions of Memorial Day weekend is the Indianapolis 500. The open-wheel racing circuit's signature event starts off a full day of big-time racing on Sunday. Sam Hornish, Jr., has the pole for the race, but all eyes are obviously on Danica Patrick. You can figure it out without me posting one of the FHM pictures.
ABC will have a camera on Patrick throughout the race, and they certainly are hopeful that she can perform as well as she did last year, when she led a lap and ended up fourth.
Meanwhile, the NASCAR circuit follows the Indy 500 with their annual marathon race in Charlotte. The Coca Cola 600 starts in the daylight and will end under the lights at Lowe's Motor Speedway. Scott Riggs has the pole, but in this race, all eyes will be on Jimmie Johnson, for different reasons than Patrick in the Indy race. Johnson is trying to four-peat as the Coca Cola 600 winner after winning the Nextel All-Star Challenge race at Lowe's last weekend. Everyone in NASCAR knows that Johnson's car is the car to beat in this race, but I have a sneaking suspicion that someone from the group of Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, and Matt Kenseth will run well enough to keep Johnson out of Victory Lane.
Ladies and gentlemen, Larry King. The Royals have lost 13 straight and are on pace to be worse than the 1962 New York Mets and the 2003 Detroit Tigers. There are other teams, namely the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have experienced a similar lack of success in recent years. But with so many talented young players on the roster, it's hard to imagine the Pirates continuing to suck. The Royals, meanwhile, have a terrible major-league team that has virtually no potential. It's a good baseball town that is being ruined by a bad organization . . . Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will officially label himself as a "hypocrite" tonight when he signs the Twins stadium bill. I really wish they would have gone ahead with a referendum, because it would have been interesting what step they would have tried to take after it failed 60/40 . . . Edmonton blew a chance to clinch a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals, getting outshot 25-3 in the first period in route to a 6-3 loss to Anaheim. It was, by far, Edmonton's worst playoff performance in years, but credit the Ducks for taking it to Edmonton practically from the opening faceoff. The Oilers will try again on Saturday in Anaheim, where they won the first two games of the series . . . OLN sucks. Their horrendous coverage, which lacks any depth whatsoever, is not doing any favors to the struggling NHL . . . Speaking of OLN, someone please tell color man Neil Smith, working the Edmonton-Anaheim series, to stop trying to crack jokes. He's about as funny as a pipe bomb.
Enjoy the weekend. Probably not going to post on Monday, but will definitely be back Tuesday. We'll recap all the hockey and hoops and talk more baseball.
Thursday, May 25, 2006
Randomization: 05/25/06
Imagine an American crowd doing this. Thanks to USCHO Fan Forum poster "Brenthoven" for this link. OLN apparently doesn't want to get anyone to understand what makes hockey fans so special, and they apparently have no interest in giving their largely American viewership any kind of idea about the passion of Canadian hockey fans. Otherwise, things like this would easily make it on the air. If you don't have speakers on your computer, or you're at work and don't want to play the video, or just don't want to watch it for whatever reason, the video is of the fans at Rexall Place singing "Oh, Canada" before Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night. There was a singer on the ice who started the song, but he stopped about halfway through and just let the crowd finish it, which led to one of those cool "Goosebump Moments" that you get every now and then (if you don't get goosebumps watching this, you need to have your pulse checked). They're hard to duplicate, but here's hoping that whoever is assigned to sing "Oh, Canada" tonight in Edmonton is smart enough to let the crowd take over if they're singing it like they were before Game 3.
Truly a special moment that will probably never happen in the United States, where people are more interested in making sure they don't spill their beer during the national anthem than they are in actually learning the words and singing along with the performer. Congratulations to the fans in Edmonton, and not just on the fact that the Oilers are on the verge of the Stanley Cup Finals. In an era where we're too busy booing national anthems and athletes, the Oiler fans have provided us with a blueprint on how the national anthem should be treated.
Word from Edmonton fans on various message boards is that Edmonton fans also sang along with most of the Star-Spangled Banner, which would only serve to further embarrass U.S. sports fans, many of whom don't know half the words, and the majority of whom would never think to sing along.
Proof that the NBA draft lottery isn't rigged. The Toronto Raptors won. The New York Knicks didn't, though they don't get to keep their pick, anyway, since Isiah Thomas traded it to Chicago for three future second-round picks and the rights to two hot-dog vendors he had been eyeing (or, maybe it was Eddy Curry that Thomas got for the first-rounder).
Anyway, who rigs a lottery so Toronto can win it? Then again, with how this draft looks right now (plenty of depth, no sure superstar), this would be the year to "let" a small-market team win the top pick. That way, when there is a sure superstar at the top of the draft, you can rig it so a big-market team wins and no one would notice.
So maybe this isn't proof.
By the way, the Timberwolves will be blowing the sixth pick in the draft next month. Congratulations.
(For my money, by the way, LSU's Tyrus Thomas will be the first pick, and the Timberwolves will probably draft a point guard with their first pick. Either that, or they'll try to get some help for Kevin Garnett inside.)
Truly a special moment that will probably never happen in the United States, where people are more interested in making sure they don't spill their beer during the national anthem than they are in actually learning the words and singing along with the performer. Congratulations to the fans in Edmonton, and not just on the fact that the Oilers are on the verge of the Stanley Cup Finals. In an era where we're too busy booing national anthems and athletes, the Oiler fans have provided us with a blueprint on how the national anthem should be treated.
Word from Edmonton fans on various message boards is that Edmonton fans also sang along with most of the Star-Spangled Banner, which would only serve to further embarrass U.S. sports fans, many of whom don't know half the words, and the majority of whom would never think to sing along.
Proof that the NBA draft lottery isn't rigged. The Toronto Raptors won. The New York Knicks didn't, though they don't get to keep their pick, anyway, since Isiah Thomas traded it to Chicago for three future second-round picks and the rights to two hot-dog vendors he had been eyeing (or, maybe it was Eddy Curry that Thomas got for the first-rounder).
Anyway, who rigs a lottery so Toronto can win it? Then again, with how this draft looks right now (plenty of depth, no sure superstar), this would be the year to "let" a small-market team win the top pick. That way, when there is a sure superstar at the top of the draft, you can rig it so a big-market team wins and no one would notice.
So maybe this isn't proof.
By the way, the Timberwolves will be blowing the sixth pick in the draft next month. Congratulations.
(For my money, by the way, LSU's Tyrus Thomas will be the first pick, and the Timberwolves will probably draft a point guard with their first pick. Either that, or they'll try to get some help for Kevin Garnett inside.)
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
Randomization: 05/24/06
Things I'd rather do than watch "Karaoke Idol" tonight.
--> Stuff my mouth full of nails
--> Detach my own retina
--> Blow my nose with sandpaper
--> Watch tapes of injuries suffered over the years by Joe Theismann, Napoleon McCallum, and Moises Alou
--> Eat a pocketknife
--> Lick a flagpole in -30 weather
I'm sure there are more, but this should be sufficient for you to get the point. I'm not going to make the crack about more people voting for one karaoke performer or the other than we have voting in the presidential election, because unlike "Karaoke Idol", the presidential election actually requires the ability to read.
NBA West Finals preview. First off, congratulations to the NBA for what has been a rather entertaining playoff year. It's not your fault that the Eastern Conference sucks. I think it's the poor influence cast on the whole conference by Isiah Thomas. And that influence extends to their conference final series, which pits the Heat against the Detroit Pistons. It won't be as bad as Cleveland-Detroit, or those old-school Heat-Knicks playoff series that I like to make fun of. But it will be bad, especially in comparison to the series in the West.
I really like this Phoenix-Dallas matchup. I like it so much that I don't think it's a stretch to say that there will be times that these games are more entertaining than the Buffalo-Carolina hockey games that this series will be head-to-head against. It's sad for hockey, as an entertaining NBA playoff series is the last thing the NHL needs to have to worry about right now. But it's good for basketball.
Two teams that have excellent speed, skill, and perimeter shooting. Two teams that like to push the tempo. Two teams that have superstar influence (Nowitzki and Nash).
And Mark Cuban.
You can't beat this combination for entertainment. If these teams play to their ability, the series should go six or seven games, and if it does, it will go down as one of the most entertaining playoff series the NBA has seen in nearly 20 years.
As for the matchup, you almost have to let Nash and Nowitzki cancel each other out, even though Nowitzki does more for his team than Nash does his (evidence: Phoenix won twice in their conference semifinal series against the Clippers when Nash played poorly; Dallas wouldn't be here if Nowitzki played poorly as often as Nash has). Dallas' smallball lineup, which gave San Antonio fits, won't help them as much here, because the Suns are also adept at that brand of basketball. But who has the better supporting cast?
Phoenix has Shawn Marion, playing crazy minutes and averaging a 20-10 so far; Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell, and Boris Diaw, all of whom average between 14.5-16.4 points per game in the playoffs, while Bell is their top defender; and Tim Thomas, who got cut early in the season by Chicago and inexplicably sat at home for more than half the season before Phoenix picked him up.
Dallas has Jason Terry, who is at almost 20 points per playoff game and leading his team in assists when he's not punching opposing players in the "groin"; Josh Howard, a good rebounder and shooter who is currently hitting for almost 16.5 points per game in the playoffs; Jerry Stackhouse, who has emerged as a solid role player for the Mavericks; young point guard Devin Harris, a Wisconsin product (Harris was a huge factor in the San Antonio series after he was inserted as a starter for Game 2); and DeSagana Diop, a big man who virtually disappeared from the NBA after being a lottery pick out of high school, yet he was somehow a huge factor in Dallas' Game 7 win. Dallas will also use Keith Van Horn and Erick Dampier to provide the occasional "big" presence, though I would imagine their roles will be diminished, as will Diop's, in this series.
I think Dallas has a bit more depth, but Phoenix is a more explosive team. This is a tough call, but I'll take Dallas, going back to Nowitzki (I guess I lied when I said he and Nash cancelled each other out) and the level he is playing at right now, which is out of this world. I also really like Terry and Howard against Phoenix's defense. I think the Mavericks will need the full seven games, but they will advance to their first NBA Finals.
And I don't really care who comes out of the East. I want Dallas to win, if for no other reason so I can see David Stern give the O'Brien Trophy to Mark Cuban.
I don't understand this. I get that people want Barbaro to make as close to a full recovery as possible after his leg injury in the Preakness. And I'm with those folks. I'm fully in favor of Barbaro living a long life on some stud farm somewhere and making his owners many, many dollars doing nothing but having sex with hot young horses. That's the way to live.
But do these people realize that Barbaro can't read? Do they think someone is printing these, taking them to his stall, and reading them to him at night?
"Josephine Adams, of Nimrod, Minnesota, says 'I have prayed for you every night, Barbaro. I'm thrilled to hear your recovery is going well. All the best to you, and may you get the chance to breed.'"
And if someone really is doing this, do you think the horse reacts to the various messages?
(Speaking of the horse reacting to things since his surgery, I was heartened to hear that Barbaro was taking interest in nearby mares on Monday. Good to know that he can be horny after such a major operation.)
Instant classic in Edmonton. Just loop the third period alone and show it for a day on ESPN Classic. Four goals for each team, and Anaheim almost rallying from a 4-0 deficit when all looked lost? Perfect. Too bad no one was watching.
The Ducks deserve a lot of credit. I know that we are prone to saluting teams for "trying hard" or "giving a good effort" or "putting up a fight". But the Ducks were down 4-0 in the third period in a tough building, and facing a 3-0 series deficit that would be almost impossible to come back from. And they showed more fight than some teams did when the deficit wasn't nearly as daunting (see: "Jose, San" and "Rangers, New York"). Good for the Ducks. The character they showed on Tuesday night will carry them a long way in future playoff runs.
I tip my cap to their leadership guys, Scott and Rob Niedermayer, Teemu Selanne, Todd Fedoruk, and others. The veterans on that team really showed the way last night, even though their valiant comeback fell short. I'm not going to sit here and predict a series comeback for Anaheim, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they at least forced a fifth game in their building on Saturday night.
--> Stuff my mouth full of nails
--> Detach my own retina
--> Blow my nose with sandpaper
--> Watch tapes of injuries suffered over the years by Joe Theismann, Napoleon McCallum, and Moises Alou
--> Eat a pocketknife
--> Lick a flagpole in -30 weather
I'm sure there are more, but this should be sufficient for you to get the point. I'm not going to make the crack about more people voting for one karaoke performer or the other than we have voting in the presidential election, because unlike "Karaoke Idol", the presidential election actually requires the ability to read.
NBA West Finals preview. First off, congratulations to the NBA for what has been a rather entertaining playoff year. It's not your fault that the Eastern Conference sucks. I think it's the poor influence cast on the whole conference by Isiah Thomas. And that influence extends to their conference final series, which pits the Heat against the Detroit Pistons. It won't be as bad as Cleveland-Detroit, or those old-school Heat-Knicks playoff series that I like to make fun of. But it will be bad, especially in comparison to the series in the West.
I really like this Phoenix-Dallas matchup. I like it so much that I don't think it's a stretch to say that there will be times that these games are more entertaining than the Buffalo-Carolina hockey games that this series will be head-to-head against. It's sad for hockey, as an entertaining NBA playoff series is the last thing the NHL needs to have to worry about right now. But it's good for basketball.
Two teams that have excellent speed, skill, and perimeter shooting. Two teams that like to push the tempo. Two teams that have superstar influence (Nowitzki and Nash).
And Mark Cuban.
You can't beat this combination for entertainment. If these teams play to their ability, the series should go six or seven games, and if it does, it will go down as one of the most entertaining playoff series the NBA has seen in nearly 20 years.
As for the matchup, you almost have to let Nash and Nowitzki cancel each other out, even though Nowitzki does more for his team than Nash does his (evidence: Phoenix won twice in their conference semifinal series against the Clippers when Nash played poorly; Dallas wouldn't be here if Nowitzki played poorly as often as Nash has). Dallas' smallball lineup, which gave San Antonio fits, won't help them as much here, because the Suns are also adept at that brand of basketball. But who has the better supporting cast?
Phoenix has Shawn Marion, playing crazy minutes and averaging a 20-10 so far; Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell, and Boris Diaw, all of whom average between 14.5-16.4 points per game in the playoffs, while Bell is their top defender; and Tim Thomas, who got cut early in the season by Chicago and inexplicably sat at home for more than half the season before Phoenix picked him up.
Dallas has Jason Terry, who is at almost 20 points per playoff game and leading his team in assists when he's not punching opposing players in the "groin"; Josh Howard, a good rebounder and shooter who is currently hitting for almost 16.5 points per game in the playoffs; Jerry Stackhouse, who has emerged as a solid role player for the Mavericks; young point guard Devin Harris, a Wisconsin product (Harris was a huge factor in the San Antonio series after he was inserted as a starter for Game 2); and DeSagana Diop, a big man who virtually disappeared from the NBA after being a lottery pick out of high school, yet he was somehow a huge factor in Dallas' Game 7 win. Dallas will also use Keith Van Horn and Erick Dampier to provide the occasional "big" presence, though I would imagine their roles will be diminished, as will Diop's, in this series.
I think Dallas has a bit more depth, but Phoenix is a more explosive team. This is a tough call, but I'll take Dallas, going back to Nowitzki (I guess I lied when I said he and Nash cancelled each other out) and the level he is playing at right now, which is out of this world. I also really like Terry and Howard against Phoenix's defense. I think the Mavericks will need the full seven games, but they will advance to their first NBA Finals.
And I don't really care who comes out of the East. I want Dallas to win, if for no other reason so I can see David Stern give the O'Brien Trophy to Mark Cuban.
I don't understand this. I get that people want Barbaro to make as close to a full recovery as possible after his leg injury in the Preakness. And I'm with those folks. I'm fully in favor of Barbaro living a long life on some stud farm somewhere and making his owners many, many dollars doing nothing but having sex with hot young horses. That's the way to live.
But do these people realize that Barbaro can't read? Do they think someone is printing these, taking them to his stall, and reading them to him at night?
"Josephine Adams, of Nimrod, Minnesota, says 'I have prayed for you every night, Barbaro. I'm thrilled to hear your recovery is going well. All the best to you, and may you get the chance to breed.'"And if someone really is doing this, do you think the horse reacts to the various messages?
(Speaking of the horse reacting to things since his surgery, I was heartened to hear that Barbaro was taking interest in nearby mares on Monday. Good to know that he can be horny after such a major operation.)
Instant classic in Edmonton. Just loop the third period alone and show it for a day on ESPN Classic. Four goals for each team, and Anaheim almost rallying from a 4-0 deficit when all looked lost? Perfect. Too bad no one was watching.
The Ducks deserve a lot of credit. I know that we are prone to saluting teams for "trying hard" or "giving a good effort" or "putting up a fight". But the Ducks were down 4-0 in the third period in a tough building, and facing a 3-0 series deficit that would be almost impossible to come back from. And they showed more fight than some teams did when the deficit wasn't nearly as daunting (see: "Jose, San" and "Rangers, New York"). Good for the Ducks. The character they showed on Tuesday night will carry them a long way in future playoff runs.
I tip my cap to their leadership guys, Scott and Rob Niedermayer, Teemu Selanne, Todd Fedoruk, and others. The veterans on that team really showed the way last night, even though their valiant comeback fell short. I'm not going to sit here and predict a series comeback for Anaheim, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they at least forced a fifth game in their building on Saturday night.
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Randomization: 05/23/06
DECC funding: Moving on. Kudos to DECC executive director Dan Russell, who eschewed the prospects of being bitter at the fact that his expansion project didn't get the requested funding from the Minnesota Legislature. Russell instead decided to take what is probably the right angle: He knows that he will need to ask these same people for money next year or the year after, so let's not start a urination contest with them right now.
I'll do the same thing from here on in. Am I bitter that the DECC didn't get funded? Sure. Am I bitter that the Twins got a ballpark funded without a tax referendum, while we passed a tax referendum and still didn't get the funding? Yes. Am I bitter that it appears the DECC was used as a political pawn by the governor and the DFL? Absolutely.
But it's time to move on. What will UMD do from here? Is it best to continue pushing for a new DECC, or should UMD begin the planning process for a new arena on campus?
I think the best move for UMD right now is to at least begin exploring the prospect of building on campus. The university probably can't afford to sit around and wait, assuming that the state will fund the DECC in 2007 or, worse, 2008. I'm not sure that it's fair to the state to begin the process, but they had their chance to help. I know it's not fair to the DECC to begin that process. Russell and his staff worked hard to develop the plans for this new arena, and they deserve a shot to see this work through to the end. But at the same time, UMD needs to strike while the iron is hot, even if that means moving away from the DECC.
The king is dead. Despite a valiant comeback from a 20-point deficit and a late lead at home, the San Antonio Spurs' season is over. Dallas had too much speed on the perimeter for the Spurs, who used Tim Duncan inside to get a comeback going in the second half, but couldn't rely on Duncan to consistently beat the double teams down low. The Mavericks are going to be a tough matchup for Phoenix in the Western finals starting Wednesday. Dallas has an inside presence with Erick Dampier and Desagana Diop, along with Dirk Nowitzki. The Suns have no inside presence whatsoever, but they will push the floor and always be dangerous with their outside shooting (15-27 on threes in their Game 7 win over the Clippers). I like Dallas in this series, but the Mavericks will have to be a little tighter defensively than they were against San Antonio. This could rate as one of the most entertaining playoff series in 20 years.
The Eastern Conference will be a different story. Detroit and Miami will probably play a six- or seven-game slugfest. The games won't be pretty, scores won't be high, and the two teams won't come out of it liking each other. This one depends on a couple of unpredictable factors. If Detroit shows up and plays to their talent consistently, they will win the series. But if the Pistons fail to show up a couple times in the series, as has been their custom as of late, they're in trouble. The Heat need to stay healthy and maintain their poise defensively. Detroit is beatable, and the Heat have the talent to get the job done, but both teams have suffered at times from a lack of focus and energy in these playoffs.
I'm not going to judge just yet...But the NHL playoffs have taken an undesirable turn. The first four games of the conference finals have been littered with clutching, grabbing, hooking, and holding, both in the offensive and neutral zones. Edmonton, of all teams, resorted to some of these tactics (in their defense, so did their opponent, Anaheim). Carolina got away with some startling stuff last night, including a play near the Hurricane net where a Carolina defenseman literally ripped off the helmet of Buffalo Sabre Daniel Briere and threw him face-first to the ice. No penalty was called, but a ticky-tack hooking penalty was called on Buffalo off the ensuing faceoff, a call that nullified a Buffalo power play.
I hope that I'm wrong. I hope that the officials are going to resume calling this stuff. But the first four games of the conference finals were not promising.
I'll do the same thing from here on in. Am I bitter that the DECC didn't get funded? Sure. Am I bitter that the Twins got a ballpark funded without a tax referendum, while we passed a tax referendum and still didn't get the funding? Yes. Am I bitter that it appears the DECC was used as a political pawn by the governor and the DFL? Absolutely.
But it's time to move on. What will UMD do from here? Is it best to continue pushing for a new DECC, or should UMD begin the planning process for a new arena on campus?
I think the best move for UMD right now is to at least begin exploring the prospect of building on campus. The university probably can't afford to sit around and wait, assuming that the state will fund the DECC in 2007 or, worse, 2008. I'm not sure that it's fair to the state to begin the process, but they had their chance to help. I know it's not fair to the DECC to begin that process. Russell and his staff worked hard to develop the plans for this new arena, and they deserve a shot to see this work through to the end. But at the same time, UMD needs to strike while the iron is hot, even if that means moving away from the DECC.
The king is dead. Despite a valiant comeback from a 20-point deficit and a late lead at home, the San Antonio Spurs' season is over. Dallas had too much speed on the perimeter for the Spurs, who used Tim Duncan inside to get a comeback going in the second half, but couldn't rely on Duncan to consistently beat the double teams down low. The Mavericks are going to be a tough matchup for Phoenix in the Western finals starting Wednesday. Dallas has an inside presence with Erick Dampier and Desagana Diop, along with Dirk Nowitzki. The Suns have no inside presence whatsoever, but they will push the floor and always be dangerous with their outside shooting (15-27 on threes in their Game 7 win over the Clippers). I like Dallas in this series, but the Mavericks will have to be a little tighter defensively than they were against San Antonio. This could rate as one of the most entertaining playoff series in 20 years.
The Eastern Conference will be a different story. Detroit and Miami will probably play a six- or seven-game slugfest. The games won't be pretty, scores won't be high, and the two teams won't come out of it liking each other. This one depends on a couple of unpredictable factors. If Detroit shows up and plays to their talent consistently, they will win the series. But if the Pistons fail to show up a couple times in the series, as has been their custom as of late, they're in trouble. The Heat need to stay healthy and maintain their poise defensively. Detroit is beatable, and the Heat have the talent to get the job done, but both teams have suffered at times from a lack of focus and energy in these playoffs.
I'm not going to judge just yet...But the NHL playoffs have taken an undesirable turn. The first four games of the conference finals have been littered with clutching, grabbing, hooking, and holding, both in the offensive and neutral zones. Edmonton, of all teams, resorted to some of these tactics (in their defense, so did their opponent, Anaheim). Carolina got away with some startling stuff last night, including a play near the Hurricane net where a Carolina defenseman literally ripped off the helmet of Buffalo Sabre Daniel Briere and threw him face-first to the ice. No penalty was called, but a ticky-tack hooking penalty was called on Buffalo off the ensuing faceoff, a call that nullified a Buffalo power play.
I hope that I'm wrong. I hope that the officials are going to resume calling this stuff. But the first four games of the conference finals were not promising.
Monday, May 22, 2006
The Blame Game: DECC expansion fails
It's been discussed. At length.
And now it's apparently over, at least for now.
Over the weekend, the Minnesota Legislature wrapped up its 2006 session by failing to approve any kind of funding to expand the Duluth Entertainment and Convention Center. This was despite the voter referendum that passed with a 61 percent majority in late February, and despite pledges of support from Governor Tim Pawlenty and House Speaker Steve Sviggum.
Well, something like this doesn't happen without someone being blamed. So it's time to play The DECC Expansion Blame Game!
If you aren't familiar with the format for the Blame Game, it's pretty simple. We'll list candidates for blame, discuss why they deserve blame, and assess a fixed percentage of the blame that should be placed on that candidate.
Duluth Mayor Herb Bergson
Going back to my time living in Superior, Wisconsin, where Herb was the mayor for eight years, I have always said that I'm not the biggest fan of Bergson. That said, I think he did well here. He lobbied hard, spending the better part of the last five days in the Cities trying to work up support for this project, and trying to sell legislators on the importance of this project to our area.
Herb's only crime, apparently, was that he didn't have the clout that a more experienced mayor might have had in St. Paul (he's only in his first term of office in Duluth). That said, I believe he worked very hard to win support for the DECC, and it's difficult to assess a lot of blame on him for something that's largely out of his control. Blame: 10 percent.
Local representatives
Much has been made of the work done by our local representatives to try to sell this proposal to others. And, for the most part, folks believe that they didn't do enough to make it happen. Clearly, the undesirable result makes it seems like our local representatives let us down.
I don't know a lot of specifics, but I do feel pretty confident about a few things. I believe that Senator Yvonne Prettner-Solon worked extremely hard to make this happen, and I think that we got some help from Representative Tom Huntley.
However, for the most part, I think the local representation failed us. I never sensed any enthusiasm toward this project from them. As talked about here, Representative Mike Jaros made comments that left me wondering if he had ever actually been to the DECC, as he wanted the 700-car parking ramp removed from the proposed project to save money.
Some have talked about the lack of clout among our current crop of politicians, because the DFL is out of power both in the House and in the governor's mansion, and longtime stalwarts like Sam Solon and Doug Johnson are no longer in the Senate (Solon died a few years ago, and Johnson retired). I agree with this to an extent, and it falls on the voters to remove any ineffective leaders from office in November. I think there are going to be some interesting races in this part of the state. Blame: 20 percent.
The DFL Party of Minnesota
The DFL controls the Senate. The Senate never backed this project, despite lobbying by its own party members from this area, as well as the mayor of Minnesota's fourth-largest city, who is also a Democrat. Never before could there be more justifiable anger at this party in our area, an area that the DFL has owned for years.
One of the main areas of failure for the DECC was within the DFL. With the good relationship this party has had in our area in recent years, there's no excuse for the DFL ignoring a proposal that was such a high priority for our area.
And it's that relationship that makes me feel so angry towards the DFL today. Our representatives and the mayor of Duluh shouldn't have had to spend countless hours lobbying their own party on this project, and since the Republican leadership allegedly supported the project, it's ridiculous to think that the DFL did so little to keep this project from sinking. In the end, the political agenda of the DFL, which is centered at this point on making Pawlenty look like an idiot, is a big part of why the DECC expansion wasn't funded. Blame: 35 percent
Governor Tim Pawlenty
Apparently, the words "full support" don't mean as much as they used to. I thank the Governor for his initial support of this project. It made it a lot easier, I believe, to sell this idea to business leaders and citizens of the area. I recognized at the time that it was probably little more than election-year politicking by the governor, but it was still appreciated.
That said, it isn't completely unexpected that this project went in the tank. State leadership has been notorious for forgetting the northeastern part of Minnesota, to the point where local talk show host Lew Latto refers to Duluth as being "150 miles north of the United States". I'm left to wonder if Pawlenty expects to encounter border crossings when he drives through Anoka County.
Pawlenty did what politicians do. He made an empty promise. He tried to use the DECC project as a political pawn to get the spending pare-downs he wanted from the DFL. When that didn't work, he tried to use the DECC project as a political pawn to get the tax code changes he wanted from the DFL. And when that failed, he forgot about his previous pledges of support for the DECC project.
Pawlenty's Head Lackey, Brian McClung, is quick to point out that the DFL-controlled Senate didn't set aside any money for the DECC in their original bonding proposal. Of course, Head Lackey conveniently forgot (another trait of politicians - they only remember what they want to remember) that the Republican-controlled House only set aside $3 million when $33.7 million was requested, despite the fact that House Speaker Sviggum pledged his full support to the project.
I'm not going to let the governor get away from this without taking some of the blame. It's just not fair. At any given point, he could have stuck his neck out and demanded that the money for the DECC be put in the bonding bill. Instead, Pawlenty decided that playing political games and making proposals that were designed to make the Democrats appear at fault for the DECC money not being appropriated was more important to his re-election campaign. Some will give him a free pass for this, choosing instead to blame the local leadership. Blame: 35 percent.
Personally, I think they're all to blame. If anyone does their job or keeps their word, the DECC has their money, and we're talking about getting out the shovels and breaking ground on the new arena. Instead, we're left to wonder what will happen next. Will UMD try to build on campus? Will the DECC folks try again in 2007?
TPaw and the DFLers get more of the blame because they showed poor leadership. I'm not a big fan of lobbying, and I don't think a project as important as this should be decided by lobbying. Pick up a newspaper. Visit the area. Talk to people. Find out for yourself how important this project is, and vote on its merits.
All in all, a very disappointing day for Duluth.
It's stunning, really, that the DFL is blaming the governor while the governor blames the DFL. If they ever figure out that they're both at fault, we might start getting somewhere.
And now it's apparently over, at least for now.
Over the weekend, the Minnesota Legislature wrapped up its 2006 session by failing to approve any kind of funding to expand the Duluth Entertainment and Convention Center. This was despite the voter referendum that passed with a 61 percent majority in late February, and despite pledges of support from Governor Tim Pawlenty and House Speaker Steve Sviggum.
Well, something like this doesn't happen without someone being blamed. So it's time to play The DECC Expansion Blame Game!
If you aren't familiar with the format for the Blame Game, it's pretty simple. We'll list candidates for blame, discuss why they deserve blame, and assess a fixed percentage of the blame that should be placed on that candidate.
Duluth Mayor Herb Bergson
Going back to my time living in Superior, Wisconsin, where Herb was the mayor for eight years, I have always said that I'm not the biggest fan of Bergson. That said, I think he did well here. He lobbied hard, spending the better part of the last five days in the Cities trying to work up support for this project, and trying to sell legislators on the importance of this project to our area.
Herb's only crime, apparently, was that he didn't have the clout that a more experienced mayor might have had in St. Paul (he's only in his first term of office in Duluth). That said, I believe he worked very hard to win support for the DECC, and it's difficult to assess a lot of blame on him for something that's largely out of his control. Blame: 10 percent.
Local representatives
Much has been made of the work done by our local representatives to try to sell this proposal to others. And, for the most part, folks believe that they didn't do enough to make it happen. Clearly, the undesirable result makes it seems like our local representatives let us down.
I don't know a lot of specifics, but I do feel pretty confident about a few things. I believe that Senator Yvonne Prettner-Solon worked extremely hard to make this happen, and I think that we got some help from Representative Tom Huntley.
However, for the most part, I think the local representation failed us. I never sensed any enthusiasm toward this project from them. As talked about here, Representative Mike Jaros made comments that left me wondering if he had ever actually been to the DECC, as he wanted the 700-car parking ramp removed from the proposed project to save money.
Some have talked about the lack of clout among our current crop of politicians, because the DFL is out of power both in the House and in the governor's mansion, and longtime stalwarts like Sam Solon and Doug Johnson are no longer in the Senate (Solon died a few years ago, and Johnson retired). I agree with this to an extent, and it falls on the voters to remove any ineffective leaders from office in November. I think there are going to be some interesting races in this part of the state. Blame: 20 percent.
The DFL Party of Minnesota
The DFL controls the Senate. The Senate never backed this project, despite lobbying by its own party members from this area, as well as the mayor of Minnesota's fourth-largest city, who is also a Democrat. Never before could there be more justifiable anger at this party in our area, an area that the DFL has owned for years.
One of the main areas of failure for the DECC was within the DFL. With the good relationship this party has had in our area in recent years, there's no excuse for the DFL ignoring a proposal that was such a high priority for our area.
And it's that relationship that makes me feel so angry towards the DFL today. Our representatives and the mayor of Duluh shouldn't have had to spend countless hours lobbying their own party on this project, and since the Republican leadership allegedly supported the project, it's ridiculous to think that the DFL did so little to keep this project from sinking. In the end, the political agenda of the DFL, which is centered at this point on making Pawlenty look like an idiot, is a big part of why the DECC expansion wasn't funded. Blame: 35 percent
Governor Tim Pawlenty
Apparently, the words "full support" don't mean as much as they used to. I thank the Governor for his initial support of this project. It made it a lot easier, I believe, to sell this idea to business leaders and citizens of the area. I recognized at the time that it was probably little more than election-year politicking by the governor, but it was still appreciated.
That said, it isn't completely unexpected that this project went in the tank. State leadership has been notorious for forgetting the northeastern part of Minnesota, to the point where local talk show host Lew Latto refers to Duluth as being "150 miles north of the United States". I'm left to wonder if Pawlenty expects to encounter border crossings when he drives through Anoka County.
Pawlenty did what politicians do. He made an empty promise. He tried to use the DECC project as a political pawn to get the spending pare-downs he wanted from the DFL. When that didn't work, he tried to use the DECC project as a political pawn to get the tax code changes he wanted from the DFL. And when that failed, he forgot about his previous pledges of support for the DECC project.
Pawlenty's Head Lackey, Brian McClung, is quick to point out that the DFL-controlled Senate didn't set aside any money for the DECC in their original bonding proposal. Of course, Head Lackey conveniently forgot (another trait of politicians - they only remember what they want to remember) that the Republican-controlled House only set aside $3 million when $33.7 million was requested, despite the fact that House Speaker Sviggum pledged his full support to the project.
I'm not going to let the governor get away from this without taking some of the blame. It's just not fair. At any given point, he could have stuck his neck out and demanded that the money for the DECC be put in the bonding bill. Instead, Pawlenty decided that playing political games and making proposals that were designed to make the Democrats appear at fault for the DECC money not being appropriated was more important to his re-election campaign. Some will give him a free pass for this, choosing instead to blame the local leadership. Blame: 35 percent.
Personally, I think they're all to blame. If anyone does their job or keeps their word, the DECC has their money, and we're talking about getting out the shovels and breaking ground on the new arena. Instead, we're left to wonder what will happen next. Will UMD try to build on campus? Will the DECC folks try again in 2007?
TPaw and the DFLers get more of the blame because they showed poor leadership. I'm not a big fan of lobbying, and I don't think a project as important as this should be decided by lobbying. Pick up a newspaper. Visit the area. Talk to people. Find out for yourself how important this project is, and vote on its merits.
All in all, a very disappointing day for Duluth.
It's stunning, really, that the DFL is blaming the governor while the governor blames the DFL. If they ever figure out that they're both at fault, we might start getting somewhere.
Friday, May 19, 2006
2006 NHL Playoffs: Conference finals
We're down to four. Two rounds down, two to go. Four teams are now halfway to the Stanley Cup. The process of cutting that number in half begins tonight, as the conference finals commence. Obviously, I have a few things to say about that.
It's ridiculous that Edmonton is already playing. If the experience of the 2003 Minnesota Wild tells us anything, it's that the Edmonton Oilers are at a heavy disadvantage as the Western Conference Finals begin tonight in Anaheim. The Oilers beat San Jose on Wednesday night in Edmonton to clinch their series, then immediately chartered a plane for Anaheim to start preparing for the next series. I don't mind that there is a game tonight. Really, I don't. But Edmonton shouldn't have to play 48 hours after they won their series. Normally, there is a tangible reward (rest) for ending a series before a Game 7. For Edmonton, there is no such thing.
Anaheim had a ton more rest than Minnesota did in 2003, and they swept the series. While I think Edmonton will play well tonight, and I think Anaheim will be a bit rusty, I do think fatigue will be a huge factor in this thing before it's over. And that's unfortunate, because an extra couple days of rest could have meant the world to Edmonton, while it wouldn't have made any difference for Anaheim.
I'm doing well in the playoff prediction business so far this year. I hate to brag, but after an 10-2 run through the NFL playoffs, I'm 9-3 so far in the NHL playoffs, including a perfect 4-0 in the second round. With that in mind, here are my conference final picks. I hope the run continues.
West Finals: Anaheim vs Edmonton. I'm pretty stoked for this series. Edmonton has the speed and skill to skate and play with Anaheim, whereas Colorado was overmatched pretty much from the start of their series with the Ducks. The goaltending matchup should get a lot of ink, as Dwayne Roloson has been the most consistent goaltender so far in the playoffs, while one could argue that Ducks netminder Ilya Bryzgalov has been the flashiest. Roloson is also the only veteran of the group, as he's more than a decade older than Bryzgalov, Carolina's Cam Ward, and Buffalo's Ryan Miller.
The Oilers will run their four lines at Anaheim, forechecking hard and testing the ability of Anaheim to move the puck out of their own zone. It was a huge problem for San Jose in the second round, as their younger defensemen succumbed to the pressure and the physicality of Edmonton's forecheck. Anaheim probably won't have the same problems. Scott Niedermayer is as steady as they come in the defensive zone, and he'll log nearly as many, if not more, minutes than Edmonton's Chris Pronger. Francois Beauchemin, acquired in the marvelous (for Anaheim, at least) Sergei Fedorov trade, has seven points in the playoffs and is on the ice almost as much as Niedermayer is. Ruslan Salei and Sean O'Donnell are +9 and +6, respectively.
The Ducks won't give in to Edmonton's pressure, and they have a pretty fair forecheck, too. The Ducks forced a ton of bad turnovers in the Colorado series, and they turned many of those turnovers into game-changing goals. They were much more physical than Colorado in every area of the ice.
However, Edmonton won't back down like the Avalanche did. The Oilers are every bit as physical, and every bit as tenacious, as Anaheim. And despite the fact that the Ducks swept the Avalanche while Edmonton struggled with the Sharks, I think the Oilers are playing a little bit better.
Edmonton has more scoring depth, with the team having gotten huge goals from all over the place. Ryan Smyth, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, Fernando Pisani (!), Jarrett Stoll, and even Jaroslav Spacek have all scored big goals, and Sergei Samsonov is always available to pick up a goal when the net is empty. Just ask Vesa Toskala about that.
Anaheim, meanwhile, is really leaning too much on veteran Teemu Selanne and youngsters Dustin Penner (5A, 6 pts) and Joffrey Lupul (7G, 8 pts) right now. They need more production out of their depth players, and they will need it quickly. If Selanne and Lupul are the only guys scoring, Edmonton will find a way to slow them down.
In the end, I think this comes down to the tenacity of the Oilers in the offensive zone, combined with the steady goaltending of Roloson. Edmonton will move on to the Stanley Cup Finals with a six-game series victory.
East Finals: Carolina vs Buffalo. I'm sure NBC is thrilled with the ratings possibilities. After all, the surfing program that preceded last weekend's Carolina-New Jersey game outrated the game, as did the broadcast of heads-up poker on Sunday afternoon at the same time. The small city in upstate New York and the non-traditional hockey market that's distracted this weekend by a NASCAR exhibition race in Charlotte should combine for a great rating. It's too bad, really, because this should be a great series.
The teams will play a faster style than most are used to seeing in the playoffs, and like the Ottawa series, it will end up coming down to goaltending, as it always does in the playoffs. I don't expect to see any 7-6 games in this series, but I do expect to see more than one 4-3/5-4 type of score. The national media in this country, at least the folks that pay attention to hockey, will probably focus on the low ratings. The rest of us will focus on the hockey, which will be fun.
(By the way, if you're looking for something to do tomorrow, sales are apparently slow for the games in Carolina. The games in Buffalo sold out in about 12 seconds. But the NASCAR fans can't get their minds off the All-Star Challenge long enough to think about hockey.)
Now...on to the games. The goaltenders take center stage because of their youth and their play so far in the postseason. Ward and Miller have been incredible, with Ward being perhaps a better story because he was the backup entering the postseason, and no one expected Martin Gerber to implode like he did. Ward responded with eight wins in nine starts, and he's posted a 1.77 GAA to go along with a .930 save percentage.
The Canes' forwards get a lot of ink, with Eric Staal rounding into superstar form, and getting plenty of help from crusty veterans Rod Brind'Amour, Cory Stillman, Mark Recchi, Ray Whitney, and Doug Weight. The defense has been steady after a shaky start in the first round against Montreal, and Bret Hedican, Frantisek Kaberle, and Mike Commodore were all very good against a tough New Jersey team. Carolina was the far superior team against the Devils, and it was very much due to their defensive play. The Hurricanes did a great job protecting leads in Games 3 and 5, and held their own in a defensive struggle in Game 2 before they got the game-winner in overtime.
And it certainly didn't hurt that Ward outplayed his idol, Martin Brodeur.
Meanwhile, the Sabres won four one-goal games to beat Ottawa. While their depth has been attacked a bit in the playoffs (Dmitri Kalinin is probably out for at least Game 1, while Tim Connolly also might not play against Carolina), it's still superior to the depth of the Hurricanes. But Buffalo needs some good things to happen in order for them to advance.
They need to stop taking penalties. Yes, the Sabres have five shorties in the playoffs, including Jason Pominville's series-clincher against the Senators. But spending time in the penalty box against the Hurricanes is just not a good idea. That power play will burn you if you keep letting them have chances.
They need to keep the balance going. The Sabres had a pleothora of 20-goal scorers during the regular season, and the balance has continued in the playoffs. The Sabres have nine different players with three or more goals so far in the playoffs. Five guys are in double digits in points. You can't just stop one line and expect to beat Buffalo, whereas Jersey was talented, but not nearly as balanced as the Sabres.
And the Sabres need to continue getting steady defensive play in front of Miller. Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman are both an unspeakable +13 (!) so far in eleven playoff games. Jay McKee is a shot-blocking machine, and Brian Campbell is also playing well.
I think Buffalo has too much balance, and they have the better goaltender in Miller. The Hurricanes will be the best team Buffalo has played so far, and it won't be as easy as their last regular season meeting (Buffalo won the season finale between the two teams 4-0 in Raleigh), but it will be a six-game series win for the Sabres, and an Edmonton-Buffalo Stanley Cup final matchup that will be bonkers in Canada and upstate New York, but will go over like a new episode of "Love Monkey" in most of the United States.
It's ridiculous that Edmonton is already playing. If the experience of the 2003 Minnesota Wild tells us anything, it's that the Edmonton Oilers are at a heavy disadvantage as the Western Conference Finals begin tonight in Anaheim. The Oilers beat San Jose on Wednesday night in Edmonton to clinch their series, then immediately chartered a plane for Anaheim to start preparing for the next series. I don't mind that there is a game tonight. Really, I don't. But Edmonton shouldn't have to play 48 hours after they won their series. Normally, there is a tangible reward (rest) for ending a series before a Game 7. For Edmonton, there is no such thing.
Anaheim had a ton more rest than Minnesota did in 2003, and they swept the series. While I think Edmonton will play well tonight, and I think Anaheim will be a bit rusty, I do think fatigue will be a huge factor in this thing before it's over. And that's unfortunate, because an extra couple days of rest could have meant the world to Edmonton, while it wouldn't have made any difference for Anaheim.
I'm doing well in the playoff prediction business so far this year. I hate to brag, but after an 10-2 run through the NFL playoffs, I'm 9-3 so far in the NHL playoffs, including a perfect 4-0 in the second round. With that in mind, here are my conference final picks. I hope the run continues.
West Finals: Anaheim vs Edmonton. I'm pretty stoked for this series. Edmonton has the speed and skill to skate and play with Anaheim, whereas Colorado was overmatched pretty much from the start of their series with the Ducks. The goaltending matchup should get a lot of ink, as Dwayne Roloson has been the most consistent goaltender so far in the playoffs, while one could argue that Ducks netminder Ilya Bryzgalov has been the flashiest. Roloson is also the only veteran of the group, as he's more than a decade older than Bryzgalov, Carolina's Cam Ward, and Buffalo's Ryan Miller.
The Oilers will run their four lines at Anaheim, forechecking hard and testing the ability of Anaheim to move the puck out of their own zone. It was a huge problem for San Jose in the second round, as their younger defensemen succumbed to the pressure and the physicality of Edmonton's forecheck. Anaheim probably won't have the same problems. Scott Niedermayer is as steady as they come in the defensive zone, and he'll log nearly as many, if not more, minutes than Edmonton's Chris Pronger. Francois Beauchemin, acquired in the marvelous (for Anaheim, at least) Sergei Fedorov trade, has seven points in the playoffs and is on the ice almost as much as Niedermayer is. Ruslan Salei and Sean O'Donnell are +9 and +6, respectively.
The Ducks won't give in to Edmonton's pressure, and they have a pretty fair forecheck, too. The Ducks forced a ton of bad turnovers in the Colorado series, and they turned many of those turnovers into game-changing goals. They were much more physical than Colorado in every area of the ice.
However, Edmonton won't back down like the Avalanche did. The Oilers are every bit as physical, and every bit as tenacious, as Anaheim. And despite the fact that the Ducks swept the Avalanche while Edmonton struggled with the Sharks, I think the Oilers are playing a little bit better.
Edmonton has more scoring depth, with the team having gotten huge goals from all over the place. Ryan Smyth, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, Fernando Pisani (!), Jarrett Stoll, and even Jaroslav Spacek have all scored big goals, and Sergei Samsonov is always available to pick up a goal when the net is empty. Just ask Vesa Toskala about that.
Anaheim, meanwhile, is really leaning too much on veteran Teemu Selanne and youngsters Dustin Penner (5A, 6 pts) and Joffrey Lupul (7G, 8 pts) right now. They need more production out of their depth players, and they will need it quickly. If Selanne and Lupul are the only guys scoring, Edmonton will find a way to slow them down.
In the end, I think this comes down to the tenacity of the Oilers in the offensive zone, combined with the steady goaltending of Roloson. Edmonton will move on to the Stanley Cup Finals with a six-game series victory.
East Finals: Carolina vs Buffalo. I'm sure NBC is thrilled with the ratings possibilities. After all, the surfing program that preceded last weekend's Carolina-New Jersey game outrated the game, as did the broadcast of heads-up poker on Sunday afternoon at the same time. The small city in upstate New York and the non-traditional hockey market that's distracted this weekend by a NASCAR exhibition race in Charlotte should combine for a great rating. It's too bad, really, because this should be a great series.
The teams will play a faster style than most are used to seeing in the playoffs, and like the Ottawa series, it will end up coming down to goaltending, as it always does in the playoffs. I don't expect to see any 7-6 games in this series, but I do expect to see more than one 4-3/5-4 type of score. The national media in this country, at least the folks that pay attention to hockey, will probably focus on the low ratings. The rest of us will focus on the hockey, which will be fun.
(By the way, if you're looking for something to do tomorrow, sales are apparently slow for the games in Carolina. The games in Buffalo sold out in about 12 seconds. But the NASCAR fans can't get their minds off the All-Star Challenge long enough to think about hockey.)
Now...on to the games. The goaltenders take center stage because of their youth and their play so far in the postseason. Ward and Miller have been incredible, with Ward being perhaps a better story because he was the backup entering the postseason, and no one expected Martin Gerber to implode like he did. Ward responded with eight wins in nine starts, and he's posted a 1.77 GAA to go along with a .930 save percentage.
The Canes' forwards get a lot of ink, with Eric Staal rounding into superstar form, and getting plenty of help from crusty veterans Rod Brind'Amour, Cory Stillman, Mark Recchi, Ray Whitney, and Doug Weight. The defense has been steady after a shaky start in the first round against Montreal, and Bret Hedican, Frantisek Kaberle, and Mike Commodore were all very good against a tough New Jersey team. Carolina was the far superior team against the Devils, and it was very much due to their defensive play. The Hurricanes did a great job protecting leads in Games 3 and 5, and held their own in a defensive struggle in Game 2 before they got the game-winner in overtime.
And it certainly didn't hurt that Ward outplayed his idol, Martin Brodeur.
Meanwhile, the Sabres won four one-goal games to beat Ottawa. While their depth has been attacked a bit in the playoffs (Dmitri Kalinin is probably out for at least Game 1, while Tim Connolly also might not play against Carolina), it's still superior to the depth of the Hurricanes. But Buffalo needs some good things to happen in order for them to advance.
They need to stop taking penalties. Yes, the Sabres have five shorties in the playoffs, including Jason Pominville's series-clincher against the Senators. But spending time in the penalty box against the Hurricanes is just not a good idea. That power play will burn you if you keep letting them have chances.
They need to keep the balance going. The Sabres had a pleothora of 20-goal scorers during the regular season, and the balance has continued in the playoffs. The Sabres have nine different players with three or more goals so far in the playoffs. Five guys are in double digits in points. You can't just stop one line and expect to beat Buffalo, whereas Jersey was talented, but not nearly as balanced as the Sabres.
And the Sabres need to continue getting steady defensive play in front of Miller. Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman are both an unspeakable +13 (!) so far in eleven playoff games. Jay McKee is a shot-blocking machine, and Brian Campbell is also playing well.
I think Buffalo has too much balance, and they have the better goaltender in Miller. The Hurricanes will be the best team Buffalo has played so far, and it won't be as easy as their last regular season meeting (Buffalo won the season finale between the two teams 4-0 in Raleigh), but it will be a six-game series win for the Sabres, and an Edmonton-Buffalo Stanley Cup final matchup that will be bonkers in Canada and upstate New York, but will go over like a new episode of "Love Monkey" in most of the United States.
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