The folks at Every Day Should Be Saturday have come up with a new BlogPoll question. Well, it's actually three questions, but it's only one post. And they're really good questions.
1. What's THE critical game of the season on the national scene? We're looking for the one that will influence the most outcomes in a single span of sixty minutes. Please try to diversify your answers and think of something other than Ohio State-Texas, for example.
2.What's the most critical matchup for your team? Again, we know we'll hear OSU-Michigan from you Wolverines, but we ask you to think in terms of multiple scenarios here.
3. What's your wingnut upset prediction of year? No hedging (or common sense) wanted here; we know everyone has a paint-chip eating, lunatic pick lurking somewhere in their brain. Go ahead and fess up on the record so you can gloat with pride later. Hit the comments below, and get blogging!
I'll go in order so as to avoid confusing myself while I type.
1. It appears that I am being asked to think outside the box a little bit. The easiest answers are Florida State-Miami (Labor Day night in Tallahassee) and Ohio State-Texas (September 10 at the Horseshoe). Both games have tremendous national title implications, and the FSU-Miami game could decide the course of the race to the first-ever (note here that I didn't use the gramatically incorrect term "first annual") ACC title game. However, I'll pick a game that isn't as obvious: South Carolina at Georgia on September 10. I'm not saying that I think one of these teams will win the national title, but there are more than a few Georgia fans that think their team has a shot, and any team coached by Steve Spurrier is going to carry high expectations into the season.
Look at South Carolina's schedule. The Gamecocks get Alabama, Florida, and Clemson at home, and we all know about the success Spurrier has had in Knoxville over the years. For them, a win over Georgia could be the springboard to a season that surpasses the expectations of anyone rational (I'm talking nine or ten wins here). If that happens, it dramatically alters the SEC East race, thought to be dominated by Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia. Suddenly, the other USC becomes a division title contender, and they have a good chance of ruining either Tennessee's or Florida's (or both if they're lucky) title hopes later in the season. Along the way, beating Georgia would destroy any dreams the Dawgs have of contending on the national stage. If they lose to the other USC at home, there's little chance that they'll rebound to beat Tennessee and Georgia Tech on the road, Florida at a neutral site, and Auburn at home. If they beat the other USC, they'll have disposed of an old nemesis (Spurrier has often ruined dream seasons for UGA), and they will stay in the SEC East race.
2. For Wisconsin, the answer is easy. No, it's not September 24 against Michigan in Madison. No, it's not October 15 at Minnesota for the Axe. No, it's not November 12 at home against Iowa. In fact, it's not even a conference game. It's the season opener, September 3 in Madison against Bowling Green. Falcon QB Omar Jacobs will immediately test Bret Bielema's rebuilt defense (four new line starters, seven new starters overall, only five seniors on the two-deep). The wide-open offense employed by Gregg Brandon would have been an absolute nightmare for last year's Wisconsin defense, which was one of the better units they've had under Barry Alvarez. This year's crew has little chance of holding Jacobs and the Falcons under 30 points. With the offense Wisconsin has had in recent years, that would be more than enough for Bowling Green to pull a huge season-opening upset against a Big Ten opponent.
That game sets the tone for Bucky's season. They aren't going to finish higher than sixth in the Big Ten unless Bielema can get that defense to play well; which means they'll have a real hard time qualifying for even a trip to Detroit. And while one game doesn't make a season, it could certainly go a long way to determining Wisconsin's fortunes on that side of the ball.
3. You want "wingnut"? Here it goes. September 3...Columbus, Ohio...Miami (Ohio) over THE Ohio State University. Why? Because tOSU is trying to figure out this "offense" thing. Apparently, someone informed Coach Sweatervest during the offseason that you actually have to score points to win football games. Having A.J. Hawk tackling people all over the place won't help you, and having Ted Ginn won't help you if everyone punts away from him and you don't find a quarterback who can complete a forward pass. Miami returns a ton of starters from last year, and the only reason QB Josh Betts isn't getting any love right now is because he's stuck in a conference with Omar Jacobs and Bruce Gradkowski. For those who wonder about Miami's defense, just wait until the first time Terna Nande smacks whoever tOSU decides to start at running back.
That's about as "wingnut" or "paint-chip eating" as I'll get in a public forum. Feel free to leave your comments.
Tuesday, June 28, 2005
Wednesday, June 22, 2005
Musings
--> Game 7 of the NBA Finals is set for Thursday, as the Pistons won in San Antonio on Tuesday to force the first deciding game in the NBA Finals since 1994. Hopefully, no celebrity wanted for murder will get involved in a slow-speed chase and steal the spotlight this time around. For Detroit's sake, let's hope that Richard Hamilton doesn't turn into John Starks, who missed just about every shot he took in that 1994 Game 7. By nature, a championship series that goes seven games is memorable. However, this series has been anything but. Unless Game 7 itself is a classic, this might go down as one of the worst seven-game series in NBA history. We've had two close games out of six so far, with one very good game out of six (Game 5).
--> What to watch for tomorrow night? Unfortunately, one thing to look for is the officiating crew. The Pistons are 13-0 in the playoffs when Danny Crawford isn't one of the officials working the game (2-7 when Crawford is working, including the Game 6 win). Crawford worked the last two games, making it unlikely that he'll draw the assignment again tomorrow. That has to be considered a good sign for Detroit. The officiating in the playoffs has been awful, and the officiating in this series is enough to make Eric Gregg complain. I don't know that the NBA could have more inconsistent officiating if they actually wanted it that way. Give the Pistons credit. They didn't get much of anything in the way of calls in Game 6, yet won a tough road game to force an all-bets-are-off Game 7.
--> Tim Duncan needs a big game. He was okay in Game 6 (21 points, 15 boards), but he's been bad from the free throw line in the last couple of games (9 for 21), and he hasn't stepped up as the go-to guy that he is expected to be in this offense. If the Spurs lose on Thursday, Duncan will have to answer a lot of questions about his ability to step up and perform in the truly big games for San Antonio. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are obviously important players, but the Spurs don't win without Duncan playing well.
--> For the NBA's sake, I hope it's an entertaining, well-officiated game. Unfortunately, that's not what I expect. I expect an 85-77 clunker with some bad shot selection, bad offensive execution, bad free-throw shooting, and bad officiating. I hope I'm wrong.
--> The Minnesota Twins are floudering, having lost 10 of their last 13 games as of this writing. The latest loss, a 7-2 setback to Detroit, saw the Twins fall nine games back of the White Sox in the Central. While the Sox are playing some great baseball day in and day out, the Twins are merely a .500 team since the end of April. The middle infield has been beset with injuries, and nobody who plays there has been hitting. The pitching staff has taken a step back, with Brad Radke suffering a neck injury and Kyle Lohse reverting back to Kyle Lohse form after pitching like Radke for about a month. Joe Nathan has struggled mightily (5.73 ERA in May, 7.50 ERA so far in June) after a near-perfect April (11.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER). Juan Rincon's ERA is hovering around 4.50 since his return from a suspension for using a banned substance. The Twins need veteran help in their lineup, and the talk seems to surround Joe Randa of the Reds right now. Randa is cheap enough, can hit a little, and is a pretty good defensive player at third base. Such a move is not a certainty at this point, but I like the point Jim Souhan (who covered the Twins as a beat writer before becoming a general columnist at the Star Tribune) made this morning: The Twins need the kind of spark they got from Shannon Stewart when they were scuffling in 2003.
--> Across the border, things are significantly worse. The Milwaukee Brewers have dropped well below .500 despite having one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. The Brewers are fourth in the National League in ERA, both with the starters and bullpen. However, Milwaukee has hurt themselves with a team batting average that is 15th in the NL, and a team defense that is one of the worst in baseball. The "defense" leads the NL in errors, and may have downgraded itself by replacing Junior Spivey with rookie Rickie Weeks at second base. There is no excuse for Spivey's defensive breakdowns given his experience and past performance, but Weeks is still learning on the job. The Brewers brought him up and dealt Spivey knowing that Weeks would struggle. What they didn't figure on was a mistake-prone outfield defense to make matters even worse, and they probably didn't expect the offense to continue to flounder despite the addition of Carlos Lee and the vast improvement of Bill Hall. Congrats to Hall, by the way, who hit his career-high tenth dong of the year in Tuesday's loss to the sCrUBS at Miller Park (his first career multi-homer game, too). It's always fun when a young player starts to come into his own.
--> Speaking of the sCrUBS, it's always grating to see the most annoying fan base in sports take over your favorite team's stadium for a few days. sCrUB fans come by the thousands to Miller Park, both because they can't get into Wrigley Field and because they want to see a real baseball stadium. I don't usually mind visiting team fans, in fact I kind of enjoy being one (specifically, I enjoy mingling with Gopher and North Dakota hockey fans when their teams visit UMD). What I do mind are the stories I hear from Brewer fans of how the Brewer organization seems to cater to these fans both before and when they come to Milwaukee. As a Brewer fan, nothing could bother me more than the organization basically endorsing the transformation of their stadium from Miller Park to Wrigley Field North. I know Brewer fans don't populate that stadium enough to merit special treatment, but that doesn't mean sCrUB fans should get it in Milwaukee. The organization needs to stop encouraging their visits, and they need to make it more expensive for sCrUB fans to come to Brewer games. The way to do that is to make anyone who wants tickets to see the Brewers and the sCrUBS buy tickets to other games against teams like the Rockies, Marlins, and others that don't draw well when they're on the road. If your stadium is going to be invaded by a bunch of obnoxious fools (or, maybe you prefer to call them "sCrUB fans"), the least you can do is make some money off of them. Maybe they can help the Brewers buy a key free agent or three.
--> The Milwaukee Bucks fired Terry Porter on Wednesday, a strange move, given that the Bucks announced six weeks ago that Porter would return. ESPN.com's Mark Stein reported that the organization wants to make a run at a more experienced coach (i.e. Flip Saunders or Nate McMillan), but one has to wonder what really happened. My theory, which has no solid information backing it up, is that GM Larry Harris and Porter had a disagreement over who the Bucks would pick with the first overall pick in Tuesday's NBA Draft. Harris fired Porter as a result, and when he doesn't get Saunders or McMillan (and he won't...McMillan will end up back in Seattle, and Saunders will go to either Detroit - if Larry Brown leaves - or Portland), Harris will be stuck where he was when Porter was hired. He'll be stuck with an inexperienced coach. Or maybe he'll lure Don Nelson (worse yet, maybe his father, Del Harris) back. Ugh.
--> What to watch for tomorrow night? Unfortunately, one thing to look for is the officiating crew. The Pistons are 13-0 in the playoffs when Danny Crawford isn't one of the officials working the game (2-7 when Crawford is working, including the Game 6 win). Crawford worked the last two games, making it unlikely that he'll draw the assignment again tomorrow. That has to be considered a good sign for Detroit. The officiating in the playoffs has been awful, and the officiating in this series is enough to make Eric Gregg complain. I don't know that the NBA could have more inconsistent officiating if they actually wanted it that way. Give the Pistons credit. They didn't get much of anything in the way of calls in Game 6, yet won a tough road game to force an all-bets-are-off Game 7.
--> Tim Duncan needs a big game. He was okay in Game 6 (21 points, 15 boards), but he's been bad from the free throw line in the last couple of games (9 for 21), and he hasn't stepped up as the go-to guy that he is expected to be in this offense. If the Spurs lose on Thursday, Duncan will have to answer a lot of questions about his ability to step up and perform in the truly big games for San Antonio. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are obviously important players, but the Spurs don't win without Duncan playing well.
--> For the NBA's sake, I hope it's an entertaining, well-officiated game. Unfortunately, that's not what I expect. I expect an 85-77 clunker with some bad shot selection, bad offensive execution, bad free-throw shooting, and bad officiating. I hope I'm wrong.
--> The Minnesota Twins are floudering, having lost 10 of their last 13 games as of this writing. The latest loss, a 7-2 setback to Detroit, saw the Twins fall nine games back of the White Sox in the Central. While the Sox are playing some great baseball day in and day out, the Twins are merely a .500 team since the end of April. The middle infield has been beset with injuries, and nobody who plays there has been hitting. The pitching staff has taken a step back, with Brad Radke suffering a neck injury and Kyle Lohse reverting back to Kyle Lohse form after pitching like Radke for about a month. Joe Nathan has struggled mightily (5.73 ERA in May, 7.50 ERA so far in June) after a near-perfect April (11.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER). Juan Rincon's ERA is hovering around 4.50 since his return from a suspension for using a banned substance. The Twins need veteran help in their lineup, and the talk seems to surround Joe Randa of the Reds right now. Randa is cheap enough, can hit a little, and is a pretty good defensive player at third base. Such a move is not a certainty at this point, but I like the point Jim Souhan (who covered the Twins as a beat writer before becoming a general columnist at the Star Tribune) made this morning: The Twins need the kind of spark they got from Shannon Stewart when they were scuffling in 2003.
--> Across the border, things are significantly worse. The Milwaukee Brewers have dropped well below .500 despite having one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. The Brewers are fourth in the National League in ERA, both with the starters and bullpen. However, Milwaukee has hurt themselves with a team batting average that is 15th in the NL, and a team defense that is one of the worst in baseball. The "defense" leads the NL in errors, and may have downgraded itself by replacing Junior Spivey with rookie Rickie Weeks at second base. There is no excuse for Spivey's defensive breakdowns given his experience and past performance, but Weeks is still learning on the job. The Brewers brought him up and dealt Spivey knowing that Weeks would struggle. What they didn't figure on was a mistake-prone outfield defense to make matters even worse, and they probably didn't expect the offense to continue to flounder despite the addition of Carlos Lee and the vast improvement of Bill Hall. Congrats to Hall, by the way, who hit his career-high tenth dong of the year in Tuesday's loss to the sCrUBS at Miller Park (his first career multi-homer game, too). It's always fun when a young player starts to come into his own.
--> Speaking of the sCrUBS, it's always grating to see the most annoying fan base in sports take over your favorite team's stadium for a few days. sCrUB fans come by the thousands to Miller Park, both because they can't get into Wrigley Field and because they want to see a real baseball stadium. I don't usually mind visiting team fans, in fact I kind of enjoy being one (specifically, I enjoy mingling with Gopher and North Dakota hockey fans when their teams visit UMD). What I do mind are the stories I hear from Brewer fans of how the Brewer organization seems to cater to these fans both before and when they come to Milwaukee. As a Brewer fan, nothing could bother me more than the organization basically endorsing the transformation of their stadium from Miller Park to Wrigley Field North. I know Brewer fans don't populate that stadium enough to merit special treatment, but that doesn't mean sCrUB fans should get it in Milwaukee. The organization needs to stop encouraging their visits, and they need to make it more expensive for sCrUB fans to come to Brewer games. The way to do that is to make anyone who wants tickets to see the Brewers and the sCrUBS buy tickets to other games against teams like the Rockies, Marlins, and others that don't draw well when they're on the road. If your stadium is going to be invaded by a bunch of obnoxious fools (or, maybe you prefer to call them "sCrUB fans"), the least you can do is make some money off of them. Maybe they can help the Brewers buy a key free agent or three.
--> The Milwaukee Bucks fired Terry Porter on Wednesday, a strange move, given that the Bucks announced six weeks ago that Porter would return. ESPN.com's Mark Stein reported that the organization wants to make a run at a more experienced coach (i.e. Flip Saunders or Nate McMillan), but one has to wonder what really happened. My theory, which has no solid information backing it up, is that GM Larry Harris and Porter had a disagreement over who the Bucks would pick with the first overall pick in Tuesday's NBA Draft. Harris fired Porter as a result, and when he doesn't get Saunders or McMillan (and he won't...McMillan will end up back in Seattle, and Saunders will go to either Detroit - if Larry Brown leaves - or Portland), Harris will be stuck where he was when Porter was hired. He'll be stuck with an inexperienced coach. Or maybe he'll lure Don Nelson (worse yet, maybe his father, Del Harris) back. Ugh.
Tuesday, June 21, 2005
The NBA reaches a labor deal while the NHL is still closed
The NBA on Tuesday announced that they have reached a new collective bargaining agreement with the players' union. The announcement ends the massive speculation that the NBA would join the NHL in locking out its players, and it ends the strange dream hockey fans apparently had that the 2005-2006 NBA season would never get off the ground. The new deal in the NBA includes a minimum age of 19 (or one year out of high school) for any player who wishes to enter the league's annual draft. Nobody seems to care about the changes to contract length, the rookie contracts, how the salary cap is calculated, or how the NBA moved to toughen their drug-testing policy. So we'll just talk about the minimum age.
This issue has been debated for quite a while - pretty much ever since Commissioner David Stern announced his intent to negotiate a minimum age for the new CBA. Stern is rightfully concerned about the flux of teenagers who aren't ready for the NBA, but are jumping into the NBA draft anyway. Stern is rightfully concerned about how tough it is for those young players to get better when all they're doing is sitting on the bench listening to teammates tell jokes and fans yell at opposing players. Stern is rightfully concerned about those young players taking roster spots away from established veterans who are better players, but don't have the "long-term upside" (union head Billy Hunter should be, and apparently is, concerned about this, too).
Stern knew he needed to get a minimum age into this CBA for the sake of his own credibility. For a while now, he has been front-and-center in the argument for a minimum age. He also knew (in all likelihood) that he wasn't going to get the minimum age he originally proposed (20). The odds are that Stern proposed the minimum age of 20 with the knowledge that he would eventually have to negotiate it down to 19 to get a deal done with the union, because while the union should have been 100 percent in favor of such a rule, they didn't want to alienate their younger members by not putting up any kind of fight against Stern.
The minimum age is a good thing. In reality, it's a good thing for everyone involved, even if they all don't realize it today. It's good for the NBA's public relations machine, as most sports fans appear to be in favor of some sort of age restriction. It's good for the NBA in general, as the players who enter the draft will be more NBA-ready than those who come in straight out of high school. The fans will be happy, because they've been begging for this for a few years now. And they don't realize it now, but the young players who are affected by this rule will appreciate the extra year (or more) to develop and improve as basketball players. When they enter the NBA, they'll be more mature (both physically and mentally), and they'll be better suited to contribute immediately in the pros.
For those who want to prop up Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Rashard Lewis, and others as examples of players who came straight out of high school and made it in the NBA, I would offer this: How many players have come out of high school and made a major impact as an NBA rookie? I can count one (LeBron James). One exception does not change the rule. Most of these players, regardless of their overall talent, won't be ready to start at the NBA level until they're 20 - and they're better off honing their skills in college for at least one year. You'll get better playing 35-40 games and practicing three or four times per week than you will by sitting on the bench for 40 minutes a night and barely practicing over the course of an 82-game season.
The NBA has to feel good about this. Both sides gave up things they wanted to make this deal, and now they have not only saved their sport from what could have been a crippling lockout, but they've also made the NHL look even worse for the fact that they haven't had a CBA in place for over a year now, and we haven't seen an NHL game for over a year as a result. Rumor has it that the NHL will get their deal done before July 1, but Gary Bettman and Bob Goodenow have to be kicking themselves now. Any chance they had of using an NBA lockout to their advantage (a chance that barely existed if it existed at all, by the way) is out the window. Any chance they had of having someone else's labor problems to distract their ticked-off fan base is out the window. The longer the NHL goes without a deal, the less relevant they become. And let me tell you, they probably couldn't be less relevant right now if the league folded altogether.
(On a side note, the Spurs will win tonight. And that was still a charge by Big Shot Bob on Rip Hamilton, even though the world refuses to acknowledge the possibility.)
This issue has been debated for quite a while - pretty much ever since Commissioner David Stern announced his intent to negotiate a minimum age for the new CBA. Stern is rightfully concerned about the flux of teenagers who aren't ready for the NBA, but are jumping into the NBA draft anyway. Stern is rightfully concerned about how tough it is for those young players to get better when all they're doing is sitting on the bench listening to teammates tell jokes and fans yell at opposing players. Stern is rightfully concerned about those young players taking roster spots away from established veterans who are better players, but don't have the "long-term upside" (union head Billy Hunter should be, and apparently is, concerned about this, too).
Stern knew he needed to get a minimum age into this CBA for the sake of his own credibility. For a while now, he has been front-and-center in the argument for a minimum age. He also knew (in all likelihood) that he wasn't going to get the minimum age he originally proposed (20). The odds are that Stern proposed the minimum age of 20 with the knowledge that he would eventually have to negotiate it down to 19 to get a deal done with the union, because while the union should have been 100 percent in favor of such a rule, they didn't want to alienate their younger members by not putting up any kind of fight against Stern.
The minimum age is a good thing. In reality, it's a good thing for everyone involved, even if they all don't realize it today. It's good for the NBA's public relations machine, as most sports fans appear to be in favor of some sort of age restriction. It's good for the NBA in general, as the players who enter the draft will be more NBA-ready than those who come in straight out of high school. The fans will be happy, because they've been begging for this for a few years now. And they don't realize it now, but the young players who are affected by this rule will appreciate the extra year (or more) to develop and improve as basketball players. When they enter the NBA, they'll be more mature (both physically and mentally), and they'll be better suited to contribute immediately in the pros.
For those who want to prop up Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Rashard Lewis, and others as examples of players who came straight out of high school and made it in the NBA, I would offer this: How many players have come out of high school and made a major impact as an NBA rookie? I can count one (LeBron James). One exception does not change the rule. Most of these players, regardless of their overall talent, won't be ready to start at the NBA level until they're 20 - and they're better off honing their skills in college for at least one year. You'll get better playing 35-40 games and practicing three or four times per week than you will by sitting on the bench for 40 minutes a night and barely practicing over the course of an 82-game season.
The NBA has to feel good about this. Both sides gave up things they wanted to make this deal, and now they have not only saved their sport from what could have been a crippling lockout, but they've also made the NHL look even worse for the fact that they haven't had a CBA in place for over a year now, and we haven't seen an NHL game for over a year as a result. Rumor has it that the NHL will get their deal done before July 1, but Gary Bettman and Bob Goodenow have to be kicking themselves now. Any chance they had of using an NBA lockout to their advantage (a chance that barely existed if it existed at all, by the way) is out the window. Any chance they had of having someone else's labor problems to distract their ticked-off fan base is out the window. The longer the NHL goes without a deal, the less relevant they become. And let me tell you, they probably couldn't be less relevant right now if the league folded altogether.
(On a side note, the Spurs will win tonight. And that was still a charge by Big Shot Bob on Rip Hamilton, even though the world refuses to acknowledge the possibility.)
Friday, June 17, 2005
BlogPoll: Over/Under
I have decided to involve myself in the BlogPoll, a genius idea from the good people at mgoblog, a pro-Michigan Blogger site (mgoblog.blogspot.com). Yes, I have affiliated myself with Michigan fans. If I don't disintegrate before the end of the season, I'll be posting occasional thoughts inspired by folks on that site, as well as other bloggers who have signed up for the BlogPoll.
With that in mind, it's time to post a few thoughts on the current roundtable question, which can be viewed here: http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2005/06/football-blogpoll-bickering-starts-now.html.
"Based on this compilation of the top 25 as Internet pundits and preseason rags see it, who looks flagrantly overrated? Why? Who looks underrated? What team in the high teens or lower could end up in the Rose Bowl?"
The top 25 referenced is here: http://michigan.scout.com/2/386752.html?refid=3637. It looks like this:
1. USC (8; 13-0) 200 points
2. Texas (11-1) 185 points
3. Tennessee (10-3) 162 points
4. Ohio State (8-4) 160 points
5. Michigan (9-3) 156 points
6. Iowa (10-2) 151 points
7. Oklahoma (9-3) 150 points
8. Florida (7-5) 149 points
9. Virginia Tech (10-3) 143 points
10. LSU (9-3) 134 points
11. Miami (Fla.) (9-3) 132 points
12. Louisville (11-1) 102 points
13. Georgia (10-2) 99 points
14. Florida State (9-3) 98 points
15. Auburn (13-0) 86 points
16. Arizona State (9-3) 66 points
17. Texas A&M (7-5) 62 points
18. Fresno State (9-3) 52 points
19. Purdue (7-5) 50 points
20. Boise State (11-1) 42 points
21. Pittsburgh (8-4) 30 points
22. Texas Tech (8-4) 29 points
23. Boston College (9-3) 26 points
24. Cal (10-2) 21 points
25. Alabama (6-6) 15 points
Who looks overrated to me? Well, the obvious answer is Texas. I'm tired of media experts pronouncing this team as a true national title contender. Until they actually beat Oklahoma, how can they possibly be taken seriously? Then again, they aren't going to beat Ohio State on September 10, so any national title talk will be dead before they lose to Oklahoma again.
Since that's too obvious, I'll say that Tennessee is the overrated team here. I'm guessing that the world is in love with the Vols because of how they completely dismantled Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. I think Tennessee will be very good in 2005, but I don't see them being a serious contender for the Rose Bowl. The schedule is horrendously difficult, with back-to-back roadies to Florida and LSU, along with road games at Notre Dame and Alabama later in the season. Assuming they survive those four tests without losing, they still have to deal with home games against Georgia and South Carolina (and it says here that Steve Spurrier had a pretty good record against Phil Fulmer). The QB job belongs to Eric Ainge, who dazzled in Tennessee's first three games last year, then faded a bit (51% completions, 9-8 TD-INT ratio) when the Vols started playing real teams instead of UNLV and Louisiana Tech.
For an underrated team, I'll take the team I like to win the SEC East: Florida. The Gators are loaded with experience and talent on both sides of the ball. Chris Leak's potential in the Urban Meyer offense is limitless. He will only get better as he picks up more and more of Meyer's schemes. Andre Caldwell and Chad Jackson will have huge years catching passes and making plays on the run. Ron Zook left the defense loaded, too. The best part is that potential distraction Channing Crowder turned pro. With Georgia a bit down in my view (I'm not a huge D.J. Shockley fan), I think Florida is primed for a national title run. They're certainly better than the eighth-best team in the country.
My search for a Rose Bowl darkhorse ranked near the bottom stopped with Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they're going to have to do it the hard way. They have four very tough road assignments (Nebraska, Rutgers (yes, I just labeled Rutgers a "tough road assignment"), Louisville, and West Virginia), and they have Dave Wannstedt as a head coach. That might not be fair (maybe he'll stop being a buffoon on game days and fare better in the college game), but he has to prove himself as a game coach before this team will go anywhere. As is, they have a money shot of winning a weak Big East, and they have enough non-conference muscle (Notre Dame and Nebraska) to potentially boost their BCS rating into contention for a top two slot. I do like the talent on this team, especially QB Palko and WR Lee. Having H.B. Blades and Tez Morris back in the middle of the defense is nice, and Wannstedt doesn't have to replace any front-line players on either side of the ball. If the Panthers can find a way to win on the road more consistently than they ever did for Walt Harris, they could sneak into Pasadena.
(Bear with me. The search was for darkhorses. To me, "California" doesn't qualify, no matter how many starters they lost.)
With that in mind, it's time to post a few thoughts on the current roundtable question, which can be viewed here: http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2005/06/football-blogpoll-bickering-starts-now.html.
"Based on this compilation of the top 25 as Internet pundits and preseason rags see it, who looks flagrantly overrated? Why? Who looks underrated? What team in the high teens or lower could end up in the Rose Bowl?"
The top 25 referenced is here: http://michigan.scout.com/2/386752.html?refid=3637. It looks like this:
1. USC (8; 13-0) 200 points
2. Texas (11-1) 185 points
3. Tennessee (10-3) 162 points
4. Ohio State (8-4) 160 points
5. Michigan (9-3) 156 points
6. Iowa (10-2) 151 points
7. Oklahoma (9-3) 150 points
8. Florida (7-5) 149 points
9. Virginia Tech (10-3) 143 points
10. LSU (9-3) 134 points
11. Miami (Fla.) (9-3) 132 points
12. Louisville (11-1) 102 points
13. Georgia (10-2) 99 points
14. Florida State (9-3) 98 points
15. Auburn (13-0) 86 points
16. Arizona State (9-3) 66 points
17. Texas A&M (7-5) 62 points
18. Fresno State (9-3) 52 points
19. Purdue (7-5) 50 points
20. Boise State (11-1) 42 points
21. Pittsburgh (8-4) 30 points
22. Texas Tech (8-4) 29 points
23. Boston College (9-3) 26 points
24. Cal (10-2) 21 points
25. Alabama (6-6) 15 points
Who looks overrated to me? Well, the obvious answer is Texas. I'm tired of media experts pronouncing this team as a true national title contender. Until they actually beat Oklahoma, how can they possibly be taken seriously? Then again, they aren't going to beat Ohio State on September 10, so any national title talk will be dead before they lose to Oklahoma again.
Since that's too obvious, I'll say that Tennessee is the overrated team here. I'm guessing that the world is in love with the Vols because of how they completely dismantled Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. I think Tennessee will be very good in 2005, but I don't see them being a serious contender for the Rose Bowl. The schedule is horrendously difficult, with back-to-back roadies to Florida and LSU, along with road games at Notre Dame and Alabama later in the season. Assuming they survive those four tests without losing, they still have to deal with home games against Georgia and South Carolina (and it says here that Steve Spurrier had a pretty good record against Phil Fulmer). The QB job belongs to Eric Ainge, who dazzled in Tennessee's first three games last year, then faded a bit (51% completions, 9-8 TD-INT ratio) when the Vols started playing real teams instead of UNLV and Louisiana Tech.
For an underrated team, I'll take the team I like to win the SEC East: Florida. The Gators are loaded with experience and talent on both sides of the ball. Chris Leak's potential in the Urban Meyer offense is limitless. He will only get better as he picks up more and more of Meyer's schemes. Andre Caldwell and Chad Jackson will have huge years catching passes and making plays on the run. Ron Zook left the defense loaded, too. The best part is that potential distraction Channing Crowder turned pro. With Georgia a bit down in my view (I'm not a huge D.J. Shockley fan), I think Florida is primed for a national title run. They're certainly better than the eighth-best team in the country.
My search for a Rose Bowl darkhorse ranked near the bottom stopped with Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they're going to have to do it the hard way. They have four very tough road assignments (Nebraska, Rutgers (yes, I just labeled Rutgers a "tough road assignment"), Louisville, and West Virginia), and they have Dave Wannstedt as a head coach. That might not be fair (maybe he'll stop being a buffoon on game days and fare better in the college game), but he has to prove himself as a game coach before this team will go anywhere. As is, they have a money shot of winning a weak Big East, and they have enough non-conference muscle (Notre Dame and Nebraska) to potentially boost their BCS rating into contention for a top two slot. I do like the talent on this team, especially QB Palko and WR Lee. Having H.B. Blades and Tez Morris back in the middle of the defense is nice, and Wannstedt doesn't have to replace any front-line players on either side of the ball. If the Panthers can find a way to win on the road more consistently than they ever did for Walt Harris, they could sneak into Pasadena.
(Bear with me. The search was for darkhorses. To me, "California" doesn't qualify, no matter how many starters they lost.)
Thursday, June 16, 2005
College football quick hits
I know we're a long way from the start of the 2005 college football season, but my preseason research has begun. Here are a few early thoughts on the upcoming season.
--> USC will be good again, and they might pull off the three-peat. For that to happen, the defense will need to be much better than I project it to be. I love Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush (along with receivers like Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett, and the up-and-coming Whitney Lewis). But I don't think the USC offense will be as efficient without coordinator Norm Chow, who moved on to the NFL's Tennessee Titans. The offense will score points, but it won't be enough to run the table if the defense (especially the front four) doesn't recover from some heavy losses. This team is incredibly well-coached, but road games against Oregon, Notre Dame, and California won't be easy.
--> Florida will be scary good in the SEC within a couple years. If Chris Leak picks up Urban Meyer's offense half as well as Alex Smith did, the Gators will win the SEC East this year. Meyer has won immediately at every one of his coaching stops so far, and he will win at this one. He brings with him an offense that no one in the SEC has ever had to face before, and Florida has the talent to make it run on all cylinders.
--> Michigan will win the Big Ten again. Ohio State is getting a ton of preseason hype, but I don't think they have the offensive backfield to beat out Michigan. Ted Ginn is a special player, but it won't do Ohio State any good to have him at wide receiver if they can't get him the ball. Michigan has the best offensive backfield (Henne-Hart) in the conference, and they're both sophomores. That's scary. It doesn't hurt at all that Michigan gets tOSU at home this year. It'll be the 359th year in a row that tOSU-Michigan has had bearing on the conference title. Unlike last year, this year's Big Ten champion should have a chance of finishing in the top two of the BCS and going to the Rose Bowl.
--> The BCS is really stupid. But you already knew that.
--> Staying in the Big Ten, Minnesota is primed for a disappointing year. They return a boatload of starters, including RB Laurence Maroney and emerging WR Ernie Wheelwright. However, the Gophers go from having a relatively easy conference schedule in 2004 (no Purdue, Ohio State) to having one of the toughest possible conference schedules in 2005 (at Penn State, Michigan, and Iowa; home for Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State; no Illinois or Northwestern). Not mentioned among those road games is what should be an easy win at Indiana - except the Gophers haven't won at Indiana in seven straight tries. The team might be better on the field, but the reward for that might be a slip of two or three wins, which would keep the Gophers out of the bowl picture. Quick fact: The only bowl team the Gophers beat in the 2004 regular season? Toledo.
--> Wisconsin will also slip. They overachieved by winning nine games last year, and they won't get any better this year unless the seven new starters on defense can make Bucky fans forget names like Erasmus James, Anttaj Hawthorne, and Jim Leonhard. John Stocco looked good at times under center, but really struggled down the stretch, and the Badgers failed to develop their trademark running game in the final two games (only 101 combined rushing yards and less than 2.0 YPC). The schedule is somewhat friendly for the Badgers - unlike Minnesota - and Wisconsin will probably go bowling, but don't be surprised to see Wisconsin spending the holiday season in Detroit or El Paso.
--> Mid-major to watch: UTEP. The two-deep is loaded with experienced players, including underrated QB Jordan Palmer and speedy WR Johnnie Lee Hawkins. The schedule is favorable, with the toughest road games being at rebuilding Memphis and defensively-challenged Tulane. The Miners won't threaten to make a BCS bowl (weak schedule), but they have the best potential of any mid-major to finish 11-0.
--> Conference to watch: Conference USA. The West division is loaded, with the aforementioned UTEP joined by resurgent Houston, Tulane, Tulsa (2003's surprise bowl team), and a much-improved SMU team that could surprise people (18 returning starters, 45 returning letterwinners). The East isn't bad, featuring Southern Mississippi, Memphis, former MAC power Marshall, and a UAB team that returns just about every key player except WR Roddy White from its first-ever bowl team. They lost Louisville, South Florida, and Cincinnati, but CUSA has gained some rising programs, along with the right to play a conference championship game (12 members).
--> Two words: Jovon Bouknight. If you don't know who that is, pick up a college football preview magazine, look up Wyoming, and familiarize yourself. It wouldn't hurt to read more about Wyoming, who is poised to ride the momentum of their Las Vegas Bowl upset of UCLA into 2005, and could threaten to win the Mountain West if Utah falters without Meyer. Joe Glenn has done an incredible job restoring the pride in what had been an underrated mid-major program.
--> West Virginia still won't win the Big East. That honor will go to the winner of the November 3 game between Pittsburgh and host Louisville. If Rutgers can find some defense for former defensive coordinator Greg Schiano, they might be good enough to go bowling for the first time since 1978. If they don't find that defense, Schiano might be shown the door despite his best efforts to revive the program.
--> Zac Taylor will complete at least 60 percent of his passes, and he will throw at least 25 TD passes for Nebraska. If he does that, he'll be hailed as a statewide hero, and Bill Callahan will be able to breathe as he takes Nebraska to the Cotton Bowl. Iowa State was no fluke. Bret Meyer and Stevie Hicks will lead the Cyclones back near the top of the Big 12 North. Missouri will be improved, as will Kansas State. It won't matter, though, as the South Division winner will roll over the North champion in the Big 12 title game.
--> Texas might beat Oklahoma this year. Trust me...that's an upgrade over last year, when I didn't think Texas had a chance. Look out for the other Texas schools (A&M and Tech), one of which might sneak into the Big 12 title game.
--> Florida State fans are thrilled. They will play Miami, and Chris Rix won't be around to screw it up. From the sounds of it, neither will Wyatt Sexton. Xavier Lee had better be good, or FSU will have their national championship hopes dashed in the season opener for a second straight year. I really like Virginia Tech in the ACC again. The "old guard" won't be happy if they win the league for a second straight year, but with Miami missing seven offensive starters and having to play at FSU and VT, the Hokies have a great chance to win the division.
--> Omar Jacobs is better than Ben Roethlisberger, and Bowling Green has the best chance to play in a BCS bowl of any team outside the power conferences. The non-conference schedule features trips to Wisconsin and Boise State, but both of those games are winnable for the Falcons.
--> New defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville will set aside Hawai'i season tickets for Elvis. If Elvis is smart, he'll take advantage, because the Warriors' home schedule features USC, Boise State, Fresno State, and Wisconsin. I can't imagine why Glanville took this job over the head coaching gig at Northern State (Aberdeen, SD).
--> North Texas is the team to beat in the Sun Belt, but Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana-Monroe might give the Mean Green a run. UNT has won 25 straight Sun Belt games, which you might not know unless you're one of the 12 people that pays attention to the league.
--> USC will be good again, and they might pull off the three-peat. For that to happen, the defense will need to be much better than I project it to be. I love Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush (along with receivers like Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett, and the up-and-coming Whitney Lewis). But I don't think the USC offense will be as efficient without coordinator Norm Chow, who moved on to the NFL's Tennessee Titans. The offense will score points, but it won't be enough to run the table if the defense (especially the front four) doesn't recover from some heavy losses. This team is incredibly well-coached, but road games against Oregon, Notre Dame, and California won't be easy.
--> Florida will be scary good in the SEC within a couple years. If Chris Leak picks up Urban Meyer's offense half as well as Alex Smith did, the Gators will win the SEC East this year. Meyer has won immediately at every one of his coaching stops so far, and he will win at this one. He brings with him an offense that no one in the SEC has ever had to face before, and Florida has the talent to make it run on all cylinders.
--> Michigan will win the Big Ten again. Ohio State is getting a ton of preseason hype, but I don't think they have the offensive backfield to beat out Michigan. Ted Ginn is a special player, but it won't do Ohio State any good to have him at wide receiver if they can't get him the ball. Michigan has the best offensive backfield (Henne-Hart) in the conference, and they're both sophomores. That's scary. It doesn't hurt at all that Michigan gets tOSU at home this year. It'll be the 359th year in a row that tOSU-Michigan has had bearing on the conference title. Unlike last year, this year's Big Ten champion should have a chance of finishing in the top two of the BCS and going to the Rose Bowl.
--> The BCS is really stupid. But you already knew that.
--> Staying in the Big Ten, Minnesota is primed for a disappointing year. They return a boatload of starters, including RB Laurence Maroney and emerging WR Ernie Wheelwright. However, the Gophers go from having a relatively easy conference schedule in 2004 (no Purdue, Ohio State) to having one of the toughest possible conference schedules in 2005 (at Penn State, Michigan, and Iowa; home for Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State; no Illinois or Northwestern). Not mentioned among those road games is what should be an easy win at Indiana - except the Gophers haven't won at Indiana in seven straight tries. The team might be better on the field, but the reward for that might be a slip of two or three wins, which would keep the Gophers out of the bowl picture. Quick fact: The only bowl team the Gophers beat in the 2004 regular season? Toledo.
--> Wisconsin will also slip. They overachieved by winning nine games last year, and they won't get any better this year unless the seven new starters on defense can make Bucky fans forget names like Erasmus James, Anttaj Hawthorne, and Jim Leonhard. John Stocco looked good at times under center, but really struggled down the stretch, and the Badgers failed to develop their trademark running game in the final two games (only 101 combined rushing yards and less than 2.0 YPC). The schedule is somewhat friendly for the Badgers - unlike Minnesota - and Wisconsin will probably go bowling, but don't be surprised to see Wisconsin spending the holiday season in Detroit or El Paso.
--> Mid-major to watch: UTEP. The two-deep is loaded with experienced players, including underrated QB Jordan Palmer and speedy WR Johnnie Lee Hawkins. The schedule is favorable, with the toughest road games being at rebuilding Memphis and defensively-challenged Tulane. The Miners won't threaten to make a BCS bowl (weak schedule), but they have the best potential of any mid-major to finish 11-0.
--> Conference to watch: Conference USA. The West division is loaded, with the aforementioned UTEP joined by resurgent Houston, Tulane, Tulsa (2003's surprise bowl team), and a much-improved SMU team that could surprise people (18 returning starters, 45 returning letterwinners). The East isn't bad, featuring Southern Mississippi, Memphis, former MAC power Marshall, and a UAB team that returns just about every key player except WR Roddy White from its first-ever bowl team. They lost Louisville, South Florida, and Cincinnati, but CUSA has gained some rising programs, along with the right to play a conference championship game (12 members).
--> Two words: Jovon Bouknight. If you don't know who that is, pick up a college football preview magazine, look up Wyoming, and familiarize yourself. It wouldn't hurt to read more about Wyoming, who is poised to ride the momentum of their Las Vegas Bowl upset of UCLA into 2005, and could threaten to win the Mountain West if Utah falters without Meyer. Joe Glenn has done an incredible job restoring the pride in what had been an underrated mid-major program.
--> West Virginia still won't win the Big East. That honor will go to the winner of the November 3 game between Pittsburgh and host Louisville. If Rutgers can find some defense for former defensive coordinator Greg Schiano, they might be good enough to go bowling for the first time since 1978. If they don't find that defense, Schiano might be shown the door despite his best efforts to revive the program.
--> Zac Taylor will complete at least 60 percent of his passes, and he will throw at least 25 TD passes for Nebraska. If he does that, he'll be hailed as a statewide hero, and Bill Callahan will be able to breathe as he takes Nebraska to the Cotton Bowl. Iowa State was no fluke. Bret Meyer and Stevie Hicks will lead the Cyclones back near the top of the Big 12 North. Missouri will be improved, as will Kansas State. It won't matter, though, as the South Division winner will roll over the North champion in the Big 12 title game.
--> Texas might beat Oklahoma this year. Trust me...that's an upgrade over last year, when I didn't think Texas had a chance. Look out for the other Texas schools (A&M and Tech), one of which might sneak into the Big 12 title game.
--> Florida State fans are thrilled. They will play Miami, and Chris Rix won't be around to screw it up. From the sounds of it, neither will Wyatt Sexton. Xavier Lee had better be good, or FSU will have their national championship hopes dashed in the season opener for a second straight year. I really like Virginia Tech in the ACC again. The "old guard" won't be happy if they win the league for a second straight year, but with Miami missing seven offensive starters and having to play at FSU and VT, the Hokies have a great chance to win the division.
--> Omar Jacobs is better than Ben Roethlisberger, and Bowling Green has the best chance to play in a BCS bowl of any team outside the power conferences. The non-conference schedule features trips to Wisconsin and Boise State, but both of those games are winnable for the Falcons.
--> New defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville will set aside Hawai'i season tickets for Elvis. If Elvis is smart, he'll take advantage, because the Warriors' home schedule features USC, Boise State, Fresno State, and Wisconsin. I can't imagine why Glanville took this job over the head coaching gig at Northern State (Aberdeen, SD).
--> North Texas is the team to beat in the Sun Belt, but Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana-Monroe might give the Mean Green a run. UNT has won 25 straight Sun Belt games, which you might not know unless you're one of the 12 people that pays attention to the league.
Monday, June 13, 2005
The return of Musings
Sorry for the lack of posts last week. I was busy with a full week of shows (a rarity on KDAL) and other work-related issues. I am returning to our normal posting schedule (well, I guess it's not really a schedule) this week. I'm going to start the week with a mishmash of sports and non-sports thoughts from the last few days.
--> I'm not sure why everyone cares about Michael Jackson. There's even a (albeit small) headline on ESPN.com as I type this post on Monday afternoon. Somewhere inside the WDIO newsroom, I can see Dennis Anderson's head exploding. I acknowledge the newsy nature of a famous pop singer being tried for anything - much less child molestation. However, it's an example of the sensationalistic nature of today's media that the prelude to the verdict was two-plus hours of nonstop talk and useless speculation. None of us know what the jury is thinking, and none of us should be making predictions on what the verdict should or will be. Those who believe that Jackson will be found guilty are setting themselves up for quite a fall, by the way - because based on past high-profile cases in California (Blake, OJ), he's not going to get convicted of anything terribly substantial. And if he is convicted of anything substantial, it's going to be immediately appealed. On the bright side, at least he's walking on his own and not wearing pajamas. That's a plus.
--> The NBA Finals might be over. Unless the champs can pull off a miraculous rise off the mat, the San Antonio Spurs will unseat the Pistons, leaving Rasheed Wallace with no more reason to carry around that championship belt of his (I've speculated that he should have to present it to a member of the Spurs after the series is over if San Antonio wins). The Pistons couldn't have looked worse in the first two games. They've been exposed as a marginally-talented team on offense, and a very thin team overall. They won't survive this series if Wallace (Rasheed), Chauncey Billups, and Tayshaun Prince don't find a way to become more involved offensively. The Pistons need more than Rip Hamilton, and they probably need their bench to come up big, something that Joe Dumars hasn't built it to do. Larry Brown will do what he can, but I don't see guys like Lindsey Hunter, Antonio McDyess, and Elden Campbell doing more than telling jokes on the bench to make Darko laugh.
--> Am I the only one who doesn't think a whole lot of Eva Longoria? Sorry, but I'd prefer to stare at Angelina Jolie in the stands. Maybe that's just me. You know, she's available. There has to be an enterprising single San Antonio Spur or Detroit Piston who can make that happen.
--> The NBA is talking lockout. Commissioner David Stern says the league's "best offer" will be on the table until June 30, which is the end date of the current collective bargaining agreement. Meanwhile, union head Billy Hunter doesn't seem too interested in continuing talks, as he cancelled a trip to San Antonio for Game 2 of the Finals last night. Hunter is in a tough spot here. The perception is that he has been a loser to Stern in past negotiations, and he feels the pressure is on him. But you'll be hard-pressed to find a large number of NBA players complaining about the current CBA or their current work situation. Most players seem more interested in playing basketball and finding a way to get a deal done. Hunter may not have the kind of support that NHL union head Bob Goodenow had around the time that the NHL cancelled the 2005-2006 season, but he appears ready to wage a similar fight against the owners. A lockout would be catastrophic for the NBA. Unlike the NHL, pro basketball has reason for optimism in terms of its place on the national landscape. LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and others form a solid core of young stars, and teams like Phoenix make the game entertaining again. The loss of all or part of a season could ruin all the positive momentum the league has generated.
--> Onterrio Smith's year-long suspension was confirmed by the NFL last week. The Vikings have only one option here. They must trade or release Smith after his suspension is completed and the league reinstates him. There's no way that the team can ever again trust Smith to lead their running game. Unless he's willing to be a bit player in the Vikes' attack for the forseeable future (until he proves long-term that he can stay clean), he can't stay. The Vikings need a player they can trust to carry the ball 25-30 times a game for 16 games. Smith isn't that guy. For what it's worth, neither is the injury-prone Michael Bennett. The closest thing the Vikes have to an every-down back on the current roster is Ciatrick Fason, and he has some work to do before he'll be ready for such a workload.
--> In closing, we go back to the top. Jackson (Michael, that is) is, as I type, being acquitted on pretty much everything. It wasn't a tough prediction to make. What's stunning (well, not really) is the reaction of those outside the courthouse. We had one moron throwing doves in the air, something I can't rationally comment on right now. Others were tearfully throwing their fists in the air and praising the American justice system. There are two possible conclusions. Either these people don't have jobs, or they took time off work to go to the courthouse and cheer the child molestation verdict of a washed-up, has-been pop singer. You gotta love California.
--> Party at Neverland tonight.
--> I'm not sure why everyone cares about Michael Jackson. There's even a (albeit small) headline on ESPN.com as I type this post on Monday afternoon. Somewhere inside the WDIO newsroom, I can see Dennis Anderson's head exploding. I acknowledge the newsy nature of a famous pop singer being tried for anything - much less child molestation. However, it's an example of the sensationalistic nature of today's media that the prelude to the verdict was two-plus hours of nonstop talk and useless speculation. None of us know what the jury is thinking, and none of us should be making predictions on what the verdict should or will be. Those who believe that Jackson will be found guilty are setting themselves up for quite a fall, by the way - because based on past high-profile cases in California (Blake, OJ), he's not going to get convicted of anything terribly substantial. And if he is convicted of anything substantial, it's going to be immediately appealed. On the bright side, at least he's walking on his own and not wearing pajamas. That's a plus.
--> The NBA Finals might be over. Unless the champs can pull off a miraculous rise off the mat, the San Antonio Spurs will unseat the Pistons, leaving Rasheed Wallace with no more reason to carry around that championship belt of his (I've speculated that he should have to present it to a member of the Spurs after the series is over if San Antonio wins). The Pistons couldn't have looked worse in the first two games. They've been exposed as a marginally-talented team on offense, and a very thin team overall. They won't survive this series if Wallace (Rasheed), Chauncey Billups, and Tayshaun Prince don't find a way to become more involved offensively. The Pistons need more than Rip Hamilton, and they probably need their bench to come up big, something that Joe Dumars hasn't built it to do. Larry Brown will do what he can, but I don't see guys like Lindsey Hunter, Antonio McDyess, and Elden Campbell doing more than telling jokes on the bench to make Darko laugh.
--> Am I the only one who doesn't think a whole lot of Eva Longoria? Sorry, but I'd prefer to stare at Angelina Jolie in the stands. Maybe that's just me. You know, she's available. There has to be an enterprising single San Antonio Spur or Detroit Piston who can make that happen.
--> The NBA is talking lockout. Commissioner David Stern says the league's "best offer" will be on the table until June 30, which is the end date of the current collective bargaining agreement. Meanwhile, union head Billy Hunter doesn't seem too interested in continuing talks, as he cancelled a trip to San Antonio for Game 2 of the Finals last night. Hunter is in a tough spot here. The perception is that he has been a loser to Stern in past negotiations, and he feels the pressure is on him. But you'll be hard-pressed to find a large number of NBA players complaining about the current CBA or their current work situation. Most players seem more interested in playing basketball and finding a way to get a deal done. Hunter may not have the kind of support that NHL union head Bob Goodenow had around the time that the NHL cancelled the 2005-2006 season, but he appears ready to wage a similar fight against the owners. A lockout would be catastrophic for the NBA. Unlike the NHL, pro basketball has reason for optimism in terms of its place on the national landscape. LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and others form a solid core of young stars, and teams like Phoenix make the game entertaining again. The loss of all or part of a season could ruin all the positive momentum the league has generated.
--> Onterrio Smith's year-long suspension was confirmed by the NFL last week. The Vikings have only one option here. They must trade or release Smith after his suspension is completed and the league reinstates him. There's no way that the team can ever again trust Smith to lead their running game. Unless he's willing to be a bit player in the Vikes' attack for the forseeable future (until he proves long-term that he can stay clean), he can't stay. The Vikings need a player they can trust to carry the ball 25-30 times a game for 16 games. Smith isn't that guy. For what it's worth, neither is the injury-prone Michael Bennett. The closest thing the Vikes have to an every-down back on the current roster is Ciatrick Fason, and he has some work to do before he'll be ready for such a workload.
--> In closing, we go back to the top. Jackson (Michael, that is) is, as I type, being acquitted on pretty much everything. It wasn't a tough prediction to make. What's stunning (well, not really) is the reaction of those outside the courthouse. We had one moron throwing doves in the air, something I can't rationally comment on right now. Others were tearfully throwing their fists in the air and praising the American justice system. There are two possible conclusions. Either these people don't have jobs, or they took time off work to go to the courthouse and cheer the child molestation verdict of a washed-up, has-been pop singer. You gotta love California.
--> Party at Neverland tonight.
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
The Nomad walks again
Former Carolina Cougars/Denver Nuggets/UCLA/New Jersey Nets/Kansas/San Antonio Spurs/Los Angeles Clippers/Indiana Pacers/Philadelphia 76ers coach Larry Brown is reportedly on his way to adding a tenth team to the list of teams he used to coach. According to ESPN.com's Chad Ford, Brown is set to become the Cleveland Cavaliers' team president, and he's prepared to leave his post in Detroit with three years left on his contract.
No one is surprised that Brown would look elsewhere despite giving his word that he is happy in Detroit. No one is surprised that a signed contract means absolutely nothing to Larry Brown.
But who knew that a coach who defined his career by teaching players to "play the right way" would turn around and stab his faithful charges in Detroit in the back when they needed him the most?
Who knew that a coach who had just won his long-awaited first NBA title wouldn't even wait a year before beginning to long for another franchise and another challenge?
We all wanted to believe that the championship would change Brown's nomadic ways. We all wanted to believe that he was sincere in talking about Detroit as his last NBA job. In the end, I think we all knew better.
If Ford's report is true, then Brown has decided, while in the midst of a playoff run with his current team, to leave the organization to take another job in the NBA. Even though the position in Cleveland (team president) is a promotion from his position in Detroit, this is still reprehensible behavior by a long-time NBA coach who should know better.
No one can fault Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert for wanting to get his front office structure set before the NBA Draft. No one can fault Gilbert for wanting to get the best-possible candidate for the job. However, is Brown really that candidate, and why is Brown flirting with another organization when he has a playoff series to worry about?
This isn't P.J. Carlesimo interviewing for the Timberwolves' head-coaching gig on an off day in the Western Conference finals. This isn't Romeo Crennel interviewing for a head-coaching gig on an off day during the off week between the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl. This isn't that, because it isn't nearly as big a distraction to the team involved.
This is the head coach of the defending NBA champions talking to a division rival about jumping ship, all while his team is trying to defend that NBA title in a very difficult series. This is akin to Bill Parcells negotiating to jump from the Patriots to the Jets, a division rival, while the Patriots are preparing to play the Packers in Super Bowl XXXI. This is akin to Mike Holmgren failing to denounce rumors that he was preparing to jump ship from the Packers while they were getting ready to defend their title against the Broncos a year later.
Larry Brown has been nomadic in the past, but never before has he turned himself into a walking, talking, living, breathing distraction while looking out for himself over his team. He has always taken care of team business first, before worrying about his next gig. This time, Brown violated his own standards and practices.
For Gilbert, the red flags are alarming, and it's amazing that he either doesn't see them or fails to recognize them. The most glaring red flag is Brown's past. With his habit of jumping around from job to job, how can Gilbert possibly trust Brown. How can Gilbert allow himself to believe that Brown will stick it out in Cleveland long enough to take the franchise where he (Gilbert) wants it to go? In two years, when Isiah Thomas wears out his welcome (it might not take that long, but you never know with the Knicks), can Gilbert honestly believe that Brown won't jump ship for the big-market franchise?
There's more. How can Gilbert believe that Brown, who feuded with the young stars of Team USA during the Athens Games, will get along with LeBron James? How can Gilbert allow himself to trust Brown, notorious for hair-trigger reactions, to run the Cavaliers in a level-headed manner needed from an executive? Will Brown try to trade James if the two clash? If he does, how could he possibly get back fair market value for the NBA's most marketable star? When Brown was in Philadelphia, he had personnel control. He eschewed talent like Jerry Stackhouse and signed Gregg Buckner to a huge deal. Then, when the Sixers reached the 2001 NBA Finals, Brown complained that his team didn't have enough offensive punch to beat the Lakers.
Maybe the reports are wrong. Maybe Brown will stay on in Detroit. Maybe his health problems will preclude him from working anywhere in 2005-2006 (we certainly don't wish for this). Maybe Brown is the victim of bad reporting by Ford. Maybe Ford is the victim of sources who are lying or just plain wrong.
The likely answer here, though, is that Brown is leaving. And the timing couldn't be worse. Brown looks like the bad guy in a situation that he could and should have completely avoided. His name will always come up with job openings in the NBA, but Brown is usually pretty good at avoiding the bad publicity that comes with the rumors that seem to always pop up. If Brown wasn't leaving, though, this story would have died a week ago. Instead, it's gained momentum since then. And that leads me to the unavoidable conclusion that Brown has been talking with the Cavaliers, and I'm not sure Brown could have done anything worse than that at this point in time. I don't necessarily buy that this is a series-breaking distraction for this team, but I do think it will be a lot harder for Detroit to overcome Miami when their coach is ready to move on after the season. No matter how often I hear that it isn't a distraction, I have a hard time believing that it isn't at least in the back of the minds of those Detroit players.
I guess we'll just have to add Detroit to the list. Cleveland will have to wait a few more years.
(Is Brown hell-bent on coaching or working for every franchise in the Central? If so, then Chicago and Milwaukee should be on the lookout. The Official Nomad of the NBA might wedge his way into those organizations before it's all said and done.)
No one is surprised that Brown would look elsewhere despite giving his word that he is happy in Detroit. No one is surprised that a signed contract means absolutely nothing to Larry Brown.
But who knew that a coach who defined his career by teaching players to "play the right way" would turn around and stab his faithful charges in Detroit in the back when they needed him the most?
Who knew that a coach who had just won his long-awaited first NBA title wouldn't even wait a year before beginning to long for another franchise and another challenge?
We all wanted to believe that the championship would change Brown's nomadic ways. We all wanted to believe that he was sincere in talking about Detroit as his last NBA job. In the end, I think we all knew better.
If Ford's report is true, then Brown has decided, while in the midst of a playoff run with his current team, to leave the organization to take another job in the NBA. Even though the position in Cleveland (team president) is a promotion from his position in Detroit, this is still reprehensible behavior by a long-time NBA coach who should know better.
No one can fault Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert for wanting to get his front office structure set before the NBA Draft. No one can fault Gilbert for wanting to get the best-possible candidate for the job. However, is Brown really that candidate, and why is Brown flirting with another organization when he has a playoff series to worry about?
This isn't P.J. Carlesimo interviewing for the Timberwolves' head-coaching gig on an off day in the Western Conference finals. This isn't Romeo Crennel interviewing for a head-coaching gig on an off day during the off week between the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl. This isn't that, because it isn't nearly as big a distraction to the team involved.
This is the head coach of the defending NBA champions talking to a division rival about jumping ship, all while his team is trying to defend that NBA title in a very difficult series. This is akin to Bill Parcells negotiating to jump from the Patriots to the Jets, a division rival, while the Patriots are preparing to play the Packers in Super Bowl XXXI. This is akin to Mike Holmgren failing to denounce rumors that he was preparing to jump ship from the Packers while they were getting ready to defend their title against the Broncos a year later.
Larry Brown has been nomadic in the past, but never before has he turned himself into a walking, talking, living, breathing distraction while looking out for himself over his team. He has always taken care of team business first, before worrying about his next gig. This time, Brown violated his own standards and practices.
For Gilbert, the red flags are alarming, and it's amazing that he either doesn't see them or fails to recognize them. The most glaring red flag is Brown's past. With his habit of jumping around from job to job, how can Gilbert possibly trust Brown. How can Gilbert allow himself to believe that Brown will stick it out in Cleveland long enough to take the franchise where he (Gilbert) wants it to go? In two years, when Isiah Thomas wears out his welcome (it might not take that long, but you never know with the Knicks), can Gilbert honestly believe that Brown won't jump ship for the big-market franchise?
There's more. How can Gilbert believe that Brown, who feuded with the young stars of Team USA during the Athens Games, will get along with LeBron James? How can Gilbert allow himself to trust Brown, notorious for hair-trigger reactions, to run the Cavaliers in a level-headed manner needed from an executive? Will Brown try to trade James if the two clash? If he does, how could he possibly get back fair market value for the NBA's most marketable star? When Brown was in Philadelphia, he had personnel control. He eschewed talent like Jerry Stackhouse and signed Gregg Buckner to a huge deal. Then, when the Sixers reached the 2001 NBA Finals, Brown complained that his team didn't have enough offensive punch to beat the Lakers.
Maybe the reports are wrong. Maybe Brown will stay on in Detroit. Maybe his health problems will preclude him from working anywhere in 2005-2006 (we certainly don't wish for this). Maybe Brown is the victim of bad reporting by Ford. Maybe Ford is the victim of sources who are lying or just plain wrong.
The likely answer here, though, is that Brown is leaving. And the timing couldn't be worse. Brown looks like the bad guy in a situation that he could and should have completely avoided. His name will always come up with job openings in the NBA, but Brown is usually pretty good at avoiding the bad publicity that comes with the rumors that seem to always pop up. If Brown wasn't leaving, though, this story would have died a week ago. Instead, it's gained momentum since then. And that leads me to the unavoidable conclusion that Brown has been talking with the Cavaliers, and I'm not sure Brown could have done anything worse than that at this point in time. I don't necessarily buy that this is a series-breaking distraction for this team, but I do think it will be a lot harder for Detroit to overcome Miami when their coach is ready to move on after the season. No matter how often I hear that it isn't a distraction, I have a hard time believing that it isn't at least in the back of the minds of those Detroit players.
I guess we'll just have to add Detroit to the list. Cleveland will have to wait a few more years.
(Is Brown hell-bent on coaching or working for every franchise in the Central? If so, then Chicago and Milwaukee should be on the lookout. The Official Nomad of the NBA might wedge his way into those organizations before it's all said and done.)
Monday, May 23, 2005
Musings
--> In interviews with the Washington Post published Monday, the parents of Pat Tillman lashed out at the Army, calling the investigations into Tillman's death a "sham" and making it clear that they feel the cover-up of the truth surrounding Tillman's death has made it harder for them to deal with the loss of their son. Patrick and Mary Tillman, who are divorced, both told the Post of their disgust over the cover-up. Mary Tillman called it disrespectful and said "The administration let him (Pat Tillman) down". Patrick Tillman was more blunt in his criticism, saying "I think they thought they could control it, and they realized that their recruiting efforts were going to hell in a handbasket if the truth of his death got out. They blew up their poster boy". The Tillmans absolutely have the right to be upset, but the level of emotion depicted in the Post article shows how incredibly disgusted they are with the cover-up that started from the very second that Pat Tillman's comrades realized they had killed him by mistake. The rest of the nation should also be outraged by the military's behavior in this case. Those who are trusted to lead our brave young men and women into battle blatantly and willingly lied to cover up the nasty truth surrounding Pat Tillman's death. They went on to allow just about everyone in this country to use Tillman's story as if it was some sort of patriotic PR act. The government knew what happened to Pat Tillman, but knew it would be more difficult to capitalize on his pre-military name recognition if word got out that Tillman was a victim of friendly fire. The fact that they told the public a false story is bad enough. The fact that they lied to the family of a fallen soldier is beyond reprehensible, and the story cannot and should not end here. Those who concocted this lie and spread it to Pat Tillman's family should face punishment. Unfortunately, accountability is not a strong suit of this administration.
--> The Minnesota Vikings will be without their leading rusher from 2004 for the entire season, as running back Onterrio Smith was suspended for a full year because of his inability to keep his hands off the pot. The player who once proclaimed himself the "Steal of the Draft (SOD)" has run into constant trouble with another type of SOD. Smith was caught at an airport in April with "The Original Whizzinator", an incident that spawned numerous jokes that you have probably already read. The suspension is not believed to be related to the Whizzinator incident, and is instead reportedly the result of Smith skipping a mandatory drug test, an action that carries the same weight as an actual positive test under NFL rules. Now is the time for the Vikings to get rid of Smith. Actually, they should wait until he returns from suspension, but he should never play again for the Vikings. Not only did he cause the organization embarrassment and subject it to endless ridicule because of his attempt to carry a Whizzinator onto a plane, but he is a player that can't be trusted. Smith has had multiple suspensions, both in college and pro ball, because of his drug use. He is either incapable or unwilling to clean up his act, and as long as he can't be trusted to be available for 16 games, the Vikings have no use for him.
--> Twins fans, I would like to take this time to pass along a quick statement from Brewers manager Ned Yost: You're welcome. Minnesota took the rubber game of a three-game series at the Metrodome over the weekend by winning 6-5 in eleven innings on Sunday, in a game that could best be described as a gift from the Brewers' skipper. Yost made more inconceiveable managerial decisions in one game than some managers will make in a month. The mistakes were so glaring that it's difficult to pick out which one was the worst:
--> The Minnesota Vikings will be without their leading rusher from 2004 for the entire season, as running back Onterrio Smith was suspended for a full year because of his inability to keep his hands off the pot. The player who once proclaimed himself the "Steal of the Draft (SOD)" has run into constant trouble with another type of SOD. Smith was caught at an airport in April with "The Original Whizzinator", an incident that spawned numerous jokes that you have probably already read. The suspension is not believed to be related to the Whizzinator incident, and is instead reportedly the result of Smith skipping a mandatory drug test, an action that carries the same weight as an actual positive test under NFL rules. Now is the time for the Vikings to get rid of Smith. Actually, they should wait until he returns from suspension, but he should never play again for the Vikings. Not only did he cause the organization embarrassment and subject it to endless ridicule because of his attempt to carry a Whizzinator onto a plane, but he is a player that can't be trusted. Smith has had multiple suspensions, both in college and pro ball, because of his drug use. He is either incapable or unwilling to clean up his act, and as long as he can't be trusted to be available for 16 games, the Vikings have no use for him.
--> Twins fans, I would like to take this time to pass along a quick statement from Brewers manager Ned Yost: You're welcome. Minnesota took the rubber game of a three-game series at the Metrodome over the weekend by winning 6-5 in eleven innings on Sunday, in a game that could best be described as a gift from the Brewers' skipper. Yost made more inconceiveable managerial decisions in one game than some managers will make in a month. The mistakes were so glaring that it's difficult to pick out which one was the worst:
- He pulled starter Wes Obermueller after six innings, even though Obermueller had thrown just 77 pitches and was cruising. He was in line for a victory over Twins ace Johan Santana, something that looked improbable when Santana carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning, and the Brewers had barely touched the ball over the first five racks.
- Yost then put in Ricky Bottalico to start the eighth inning. While that wasn't a sin, what Yost did to respond to Bottalico's wildness certainly qualified. Instead of going with Matt Wise or even Mike Adams, Yost summoned closer Derrick Turnbow with the bases loaded and one out in the eighth. Turnbow would strike out Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter, with a run scoring on a wild pitch to Morneau. However, a long at-bat by Jacque Jones to lead off the ninth would doom Turnbow. By the time that he had yielded the game-tying home run to Shannon Stewart, Turnbow had thrown 40 pitches, and he was clearly gassed after the Jones at-bat.
Yost could have avoided the loss by either letting Obermueller work the seventh, or putting Wise in to replace a struggling Bottalico in the eighth. Instead, his team ends a tough road trip with a potentially crippling loss. On the bright side for local baseball fans, the Twins picked up a game on the White Sox, and they may have found a turning point for their season with such a stirring comeback victory.
--> I'm not going to get too much into the basketball. Quite frankly, I've written so much about the NBA Playoffs that some of you might think I'm trying to be Bill Simmons or something like that. That's not the case. As riveting as the playoffs have been, I'll leave the everyday writing about the NBA to those who know more about the game than I do. That said, I will mention that there's no way San Antonio's going to win the Western finals if they need another 43-point quarter (on nearly 73 percent shooting) to do it. That's not their element, and while the Spurs will get out and run once in a while, and they're hardly the plodding, slow-paced team that Indiana became, they can't afford to get in a shootout with a team like Phoenix. The Suns will be fine in this series if they can play like they did Sunday, while the Spurs could find themselves in some trouble if it takes 115 points per game to beat the Suns three more times.
--> The Cubs have told Carlos Zambrano to cut back on his typing to help save his elbow. That's right. Typing. It seems that Zambrano spends a few hours a day exchanging e-mails with his brother in Venezuela. While the Cubs say Zambrano doesn't have carpal tunnel syndrome, they do say that Zambrano's elbow problems may be, in part, the result of how much typing he does every day in those e-mail exchanges with family back home. Meanwhile, Cubs "manager" Dusty Baker allowed starting pitcher Mark Prior, who was on the shelf with arm issues during spring training, to throw 129 pitches in a complete game win over the White Sox on Sunday. It seems that complete games are about the only way the Cubs can win nowadays, being that their bullpen is a disaster waiting to happen. Someday, Baker will learn. Unfortunately, that day may not come until one of his pitchers' arms literally falls off on the mound during a game. It's neat that one pitcher is allowed to rack up 129 pitches while the franchise is trying to stop another top pitcher from typing so much.
--> Did the Reds designate Danny Graves for assignment because he flipped off a fan, or did they designate Danny Graves for assignment because he makes LaTroy Hawkins look like Eric Gagne?
--> Is it okay to rip into Randy Johnson yet? I'm sure he'll pitch better at some point this season, but I think that most feel quite foolish for just assuming that Johnson would win 20 games. At this point, he'll be lucky to win 15 games.
--> The Denver Broncos might sign Jerry Rice. Why? He's not a running back. Then again, he and Rod Smith could combine to make up one of the oldest wide receiving tandems in league history. I'm sure Jake Plummer would be thrilled with that.
--> Word is that Ricky Williams is "absolutely set" to report to Miami Dolphins training camp this July. He would have to wait until July to avoid a one-year drug suspension, and he would have to serve a four-game ban at the start of the regular season. Why would Nick Saban even want to take the chance? I understand that he drafted Ronnie Brown to be "The Man", but Williams likely won't accept a secondary role if he decides to come back. And how could anyone think Williams is trustworthy after what he pulled last year?
Friday, May 20, 2005
NBA Conference Finals Preview
I know what's going to happen. I'm going to preview the best conference finals matchups the NBA has seen in 15 years, and Phoenix is going to blow their semifinal series with Dallas. Alas, I'm not planning on writing this weekend, so I'll preview both series right now.
First off, it's doesn't make a lot of sense that Miami is on the shelf for an extra day, while the West finals will start Sunday if Phoenix beats Dallas tonight. Why do Detroit and Miami get the extra day of rest, when one would think Phoenix and San Antonio probably should have an extra day or two off? Then again, if Joe Johnson isn't coming back (which he probably isn't unless the NBA lets him borrow a helmet from the Arizona Cardinals), it isn't really a big deal when the series starts.
With that in mind, it's time to look at the likely matchups (sorry, Dallas fans, but this isn't personal...it's laziness, combined with the fact that I won't be able to preview the West finals if they start Sunday).
--> East: Detroit vs. Miami
Everyone is crowding on board the Dwyane Wade bandwagon. But Wade isn't the key to this series for Miami. He's good for 30-7-5 pretty much every game this series, provided that he's shooting well. If Wade has a special night, which will probably happen at least once, because Detroit can't guard him one-on-one, he can carry this team. But Wade can't carry this team over a best-of-seven, even with a healthy Shaq. And Shaq's not healthy - a huge break for Detroit.
The Heat need Shaq at something that at least remotely resembles 100 percent. Without the big man, Wade will be slowed down by the tight Detroit defense, and there will be even more pressure on a shaky bench to contribute big minutes and big numbers. With him, Wade will have more space to maneuver in, and a healthy and motivated Shaq is a matchup nightmare for the Pistons.
The Pistons, however, are not a real favorite in this series. I don't care so much about home court, because Miami is 4-0 on the road so far in the playoffs. Also, Detroit has won some big games on the road, including two games at Indiana in the semifinals.
The most important players in the series are both named Jones. Damon and Eddie Jones of Miami need to come up big. When a team is limited in their offensive options, Detroit typically finds a way to shut them down. To beat the Pistons, Miami needs to be diversified. If the Joneses aren't a serious scoring threat, the Pistons will collapse the defense on Wade and O'Neal, and the Heat won't have a chance. Both Damon and Eddie Jones have hit some huge shots in this series, and it's foolish to assume that Detroit will automatically shut them both down.
Even if Shaq is hurt and/or the Heat bench struggles, Detroit is not a safe bet to win this series. The Pistons have looked less than motivated at times in these playoffs, and they are the thinnest team remaining. With the physical style they employ, it's not a good thing when all five starters log 40 or more minutes in most games. It's okay when the competition is questionable, but Miami is deep enough to challenge Detroit on every possession and wear them down.
I like Miami in this series. I've flip-flopped a bit, and I'm certain of a few things:
1. Miami won't win this series without Shaq at least 90-95 percent. They don't have enough offense, and they don't have enough of a post presence without the Diesel.
2. Miami can win without Dwyane Wade playing out of his mind. In fact, it would benefit Miami if all their key players were contributing, instead of having everything fall on Wade's and O'Neal's shoulders. The more balanced their offense is, the better they'll look against a sometimes-suffocating Detroit defense. Jones and Jones need to hit their open shots, because they'll have their chances.
3. Detroit has to give a consistent effort. They have looked at times like a team that won a championship last year, and that's not a good thing. However, they've also looked at times like the team that won a championship last year. That is definitely a good thing. It should also be noted here that it's a virtual guarantee that someone from Detroit will play the "We won it all last year, and now everyone's picking Miami" card.
To sum it up, I think Miami will win the series. It'll probably go seven, but they have better front-line talent, and their depth is better than people think. Stan Van Gundy has done a good job pushing the right buttons so far, and he understands what matchups work and what matchups don't. It's a better coaching matchup than it looks like on paper, and Van Gundy might actually have an advantage because of how motivated everyone on that team is, especially O'Neal.
--> West: San Antonio vs. Phoenix*
Amare Stoudemire will wring my neck if the Suns drop the rest of the Dallas series because I'm doing this, but I'll do it anyway.
Will anyone who isn't a San Antonio fan be rooting for San Antonio? If the fact that the Spurs have become a perennial championship contender isn't enough, they have one of the most unlikeable players remaining in the playoffs in Manu Ginobli. If you haven't caught this guy's act, sample Game One of this series. Ginobli was flopping around so much in the Seattle series that Peter Forsberg expressed embarrassment over the style of play Ginobli was employing. And he never got called on it.
The Spurs have the best power forward in the league in Tim Duncan. Phoenix won't be able to guard him, and anyone who thinks Steve Nash can slow down Tony Parker is smoking the stuff Onterrio Smith can't leave alone. Fortunately for Phoenix, they don't have to play great defense to win this series. They just have to play passable defense. The Spurs don't match up well defensively with Phoenix, especially if Jim Jackson can play well. Johnson is probably out with his broken face, so the Suns need Jackson to hit outside shots and keep the pressure off Nash and Amare Stoudemire.
The Spurs have the advantage in experience, and I couldn't care less. The Spurs are a great team, and their experience won't be what beats Phoenix. It'll be their defense. If San Antonio allows Phoenix to run and gun and take open jumpers, the Suns will win the series despite their lack of experience. As good as the Spurs are, there might not be much they can do about the Suns. They'll run whenever they feel like it, and they do a better job of forcing their tempo on their opponent than any team in the West.
Without Johnson, this series will be hard on Phoenix. But they have so many weapons that it's still hard to figure that they won't score their share of points. With that comes pressure on the Spurs to play a bit out of their element. They're not a run and gun team, and while San Antonio can get out and score points, they're better off trying to slow the game down. They'll rebound, they'll flop, and they'll hit big shots. Phoenix will match them shot for shot, and Stoudemire will average 30+ points per game over the series.
Look out for Jackson and Quentin Richardson. The Suns relied heavily on Johnson and Richardson during the season, and Jackson will be asked to step in and make jump shots. The veteran has come through before, but this is the biggest series of his career. Richardson has been the most underappreciated starter on this team.
In a battle of tempos, I'll take the run and gun team that doesn't play great defense. In other words, I have a gut feeling that Phoenix will in a seven-game classic. Either that, or I'm irrationally in love with the Suns' style of play and can't face reality. Oh, well. It's my blog.
First off, it's doesn't make a lot of sense that Miami is on the shelf for an extra day, while the West finals will start Sunday if Phoenix beats Dallas tonight. Why do Detroit and Miami get the extra day of rest, when one would think Phoenix and San Antonio probably should have an extra day or two off? Then again, if Joe Johnson isn't coming back (which he probably isn't unless the NBA lets him borrow a helmet from the Arizona Cardinals), it isn't really a big deal when the series starts.
With that in mind, it's time to look at the likely matchups (sorry, Dallas fans, but this isn't personal...it's laziness, combined with the fact that I won't be able to preview the West finals if they start Sunday).
--> East: Detroit vs. Miami
Everyone is crowding on board the Dwyane Wade bandwagon. But Wade isn't the key to this series for Miami. He's good for 30-7-5 pretty much every game this series, provided that he's shooting well. If Wade has a special night, which will probably happen at least once, because Detroit can't guard him one-on-one, he can carry this team. But Wade can't carry this team over a best-of-seven, even with a healthy Shaq. And Shaq's not healthy - a huge break for Detroit.
The Heat need Shaq at something that at least remotely resembles 100 percent. Without the big man, Wade will be slowed down by the tight Detroit defense, and there will be even more pressure on a shaky bench to contribute big minutes and big numbers. With him, Wade will have more space to maneuver in, and a healthy and motivated Shaq is a matchup nightmare for the Pistons.
The Pistons, however, are not a real favorite in this series. I don't care so much about home court, because Miami is 4-0 on the road so far in the playoffs. Also, Detroit has won some big games on the road, including two games at Indiana in the semifinals.
The most important players in the series are both named Jones. Damon and Eddie Jones of Miami need to come up big. When a team is limited in their offensive options, Detroit typically finds a way to shut them down. To beat the Pistons, Miami needs to be diversified. If the Joneses aren't a serious scoring threat, the Pistons will collapse the defense on Wade and O'Neal, and the Heat won't have a chance. Both Damon and Eddie Jones have hit some huge shots in this series, and it's foolish to assume that Detroit will automatically shut them both down.
Even if Shaq is hurt and/or the Heat bench struggles, Detroit is not a safe bet to win this series. The Pistons have looked less than motivated at times in these playoffs, and they are the thinnest team remaining. With the physical style they employ, it's not a good thing when all five starters log 40 or more minutes in most games. It's okay when the competition is questionable, but Miami is deep enough to challenge Detroit on every possession and wear them down.
I like Miami in this series. I've flip-flopped a bit, and I'm certain of a few things:
1. Miami won't win this series without Shaq at least 90-95 percent. They don't have enough offense, and they don't have enough of a post presence without the Diesel.
2. Miami can win without Dwyane Wade playing out of his mind. In fact, it would benefit Miami if all their key players were contributing, instead of having everything fall on Wade's and O'Neal's shoulders. The more balanced their offense is, the better they'll look against a sometimes-suffocating Detroit defense. Jones and Jones need to hit their open shots, because they'll have their chances.
3. Detroit has to give a consistent effort. They have looked at times like a team that won a championship last year, and that's not a good thing. However, they've also looked at times like the team that won a championship last year. That is definitely a good thing. It should also be noted here that it's a virtual guarantee that someone from Detroit will play the "We won it all last year, and now everyone's picking Miami" card.
To sum it up, I think Miami will win the series. It'll probably go seven, but they have better front-line talent, and their depth is better than people think. Stan Van Gundy has done a good job pushing the right buttons so far, and he understands what matchups work and what matchups don't. It's a better coaching matchup than it looks like on paper, and Van Gundy might actually have an advantage because of how motivated everyone on that team is, especially O'Neal.
--> West: San Antonio vs. Phoenix*
Amare Stoudemire will wring my neck if the Suns drop the rest of the Dallas series because I'm doing this, but I'll do it anyway.
Will anyone who isn't a San Antonio fan be rooting for San Antonio? If the fact that the Spurs have become a perennial championship contender isn't enough, they have one of the most unlikeable players remaining in the playoffs in Manu Ginobli. If you haven't caught this guy's act, sample Game One of this series. Ginobli was flopping around so much in the Seattle series that Peter Forsberg expressed embarrassment over the style of play Ginobli was employing. And he never got called on it.
The Spurs have the best power forward in the league in Tim Duncan. Phoenix won't be able to guard him, and anyone who thinks Steve Nash can slow down Tony Parker is smoking the stuff Onterrio Smith can't leave alone. Fortunately for Phoenix, they don't have to play great defense to win this series. They just have to play passable defense. The Spurs don't match up well defensively with Phoenix, especially if Jim Jackson can play well. Johnson is probably out with his broken face, so the Suns need Jackson to hit outside shots and keep the pressure off Nash and Amare Stoudemire.
The Spurs have the advantage in experience, and I couldn't care less. The Spurs are a great team, and their experience won't be what beats Phoenix. It'll be their defense. If San Antonio allows Phoenix to run and gun and take open jumpers, the Suns will win the series despite their lack of experience. As good as the Spurs are, there might not be much they can do about the Suns. They'll run whenever they feel like it, and they do a better job of forcing their tempo on their opponent than any team in the West.
Without Johnson, this series will be hard on Phoenix. But they have so many weapons that it's still hard to figure that they won't score their share of points. With that comes pressure on the Spurs to play a bit out of their element. They're not a run and gun team, and while San Antonio can get out and score points, they're better off trying to slow the game down. They'll rebound, they'll flop, and they'll hit big shots. Phoenix will match them shot for shot, and Stoudemire will average 30+ points per game over the series.
Look out for Jackson and Quentin Richardson. The Suns relied heavily on Johnson and Richardson during the season, and Jackson will be asked to step in and make jump shots. The veteran has come through before, but this is the biggest series of his career. Richardson has been the most underappreciated starter on this team.
In a battle of tempos, I'll take the run and gun team that doesn't play great defense. In other words, I have a gut feeling that Phoenix will in a seven-game classic. Either that, or I'm irrationally in love with the Suns' style of play and can't face reality. Oh, well. It's my blog.
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
Life without Lord Stanley
I had a chance to chat with NHLer Darby Hendrickson on Monday. He was very candid about his thoughts regarding the lockout and the future of the NHL. Until I talked to Darby, the fact that we haven't seen the NHL since last June hadn't really hit me. I'm not going to say I wasn't missing it, because I certainly do miss it, but I think it's a very bad sign how eminently replaceable the NHL has been, even for someone who is a pretty big hockey fan. Right now, we should be rolling through the conference finals. Last year saw Calgary beat San Jose and Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia in two very entertaining series. I found myself staying up late to watch the Flames complete their magical run to the Finals. This year, the arenas are empty, except for the occasional American Idol reunion or Velvet Revolver show. There's no hockey to be found, and Gary Bettman's worst nightmare has come true - no one cares.
In a way, this is good for the NHL. If there is a professional sports league that could quickly rebound from a cancelled season, it's one that barely has a pulse to begin with. The 1994 baseball strike took years for the sport to recover from, and to this day, there are people who continue to swear off the sport because of that strike. There will be people that swear off hockey because of it being the first major North American professional sport to lose an entire season to a labor dispute. But the sport has such a small fanbase, that they still can only go up from here, even after they lose a percentage of their fans.
Hockey fans are a loyal bunch. Those who follow the NHL love the sport, and they probably follow it at the lower levels (juniors, college, high school, youth). Personally, I can't get enough hockey. I am a Minnesota-Duluth season-ticket holder, and I follow college hockey and watch it whenever I can, no matter who is playing. When the NHL was active, I enjoyed watching games on occasion during the regular season, closely following the Minnesota Wild, and I watched as many playoff games as I was able to. To top it off, we have high school hockey in Minnesota that's as good as any in the country, and Wisconsin's high school hockey is vastly improved in recent years.
Those who follow the sport will continue to do so, and most that have at least casually followed the NHL will probably continue to do so when the league comes back. The true test for the NHL comes with the proposed rules changes. The league needs to make enough of the right rules changes to inspire fans to sample the game. Once the lockout ends, the NHL has to work in its abysmal television ratings, because no one will watch hockey in this country as long as they think it's boring.
I'm not a fan of some of the proposed changes, such as the wider blue lines, the removal of the red line (two-line pass rule), and the provision that would allow for penalties to goaltenders that wander out to play the puck. But I think the league should make the goalie pads smaller, make wandering goalies subject to physical contact, and they should also move the nets back closer to the endwalls.
European leagues allow two-line passes. While the skill level isn't as high as the NHL, there are many out there who don't believe the European game is significantly more wide-open than the "Americanized" version of hockey. I don't know that the two-line pass rule has a great impact on the overall flow of the game. If the NHL could somehow mandate that all teams go to the 200X100 ice sheets (Olympic-size), that would probably have a greater impact on the game than removing the two-line pass rule would. And we all know that the chances of the NHL mandating that owners sacrifice their most expensive seats and take a short-term financial hit, even if it's for the good of the game and would probably help everyone long-term, are pretty minimal, if they exist at all.
I know many are against the idea of wandering goalies being fair game. After all, if the NFL can over-protect quarterbacks, why can't hockey over-protect goaltenders? There are some big differences. Quarterbacks are allowed to be hit as long as they're in bounds, they have the football, and the play is on progress. They aren't protected by any special rules. It's just that the existing rules are enforced much more diligently when a hit involves a quarterback. There is no rule in the NHL that a player who is pursuing or possessing the puck can't be hit, and goalies shouldn't be an exception to this rule when they leave the crease. The crease was designed to protect the goalies. They aren't to be intentionally hit in the crease. Skaters are supposed to stay out of the crease unless the puck is in the crease. It is a restricted area. To me, it stands to reason that when a goalie leaves the "restricted area", they should be fair game.
Look at it as a "Leave at your own risk" principle. If you leave the "restricted area" (an area I am fully in favor of expanding in exchange for this rule), you are doing so with the full knowledge that you can be hit (within reasonable context of the game). It's a similar rule that is in place for kickers and punters in the NFL. If someone goes out of their way to light up a kicker, they will get a penalty. If you block the kicker with a hard hit while the kicker is in the general area of the ballcarrier, you will get away with it.
It requires the officials to make the judgment call on whether a hit is "unnecessary" or "excessive", but I think it also serves as a deterrent to the constant wandering of goaltenders who can't be touched. It's a scenario that almost shuts down any aggressive forecheck, because players can't go barrelling in after the puck when the goalie goes out after it.
In a way, this is good for the NHL. If there is a professional sports league that could quickly rebound from a cancelled season, it's one that barely has a pulse to begin with. The 1994 baseball strike took years for the sport to recover from, and to this day, there are people who continue to swear off the sport because of that strike. There will be people that swear off hockey because of it being the first major North American professional sport to lose an entire season to a labor dispute. But the sport has such a small fanbase, that they still can only go up from here, even after they lose a percentage of their fans.
Hockey fans are a loyal bunch. Those who follow the NHL love the sport, and they probably follow it at the lower levels (juniors, college, high school, youth). Personally, I can't get enough hockey. I am a Minnesota-Duluth season-ticket holder, and I follow college hockey and watch it whenever I can, no matter who is playing. When the NHL was active, I enjoyed watching games on occasion during the regular season, closely following the Minnesota Wild, and I watched as many playoff games as I was able to. To top it off, we have high school hockey in Minnesota that's as good as any in the country, and Wisconsin's high school hockey is vastly improved in recent years.
Those who follow the sport will continue to do so, and most that have at least casually followed the NHL will probably continue to do so when the league comes back. The true test for the NHL comes with the proposed rules changes. The league needs to make enough of the right rules changes to inspire fans to sample the game. Once the lockout ends, the NHL has to work in its abysmal television ratings, because no one will watch hockey in this country as long as they think it's boring.
I'm not a fan of some of the proposed changes, such as the wider blue lines, the removal of the red line (two-line pass rule), and the provision that would allow for penalties to goaltenders that wander out to play the puck. But I think the league should make the goalie pads smaller, make wandering goalies subject to physical contact, and they should also move the nets back closer to the endwalls.
European leagues allow two-line passes. While the skill level isn't as high as the NHL, there are many out there who don't believe the European game is significantly more wide-open than the "Americanized" version of hockey. I don't know that the two-line pass rule has a great impact on the overall flow of the game. If the NHL could somehow mandate that all teams go to the 200X100 ice sheets (Olympic-size), that would probably have a greater impact on the game than removing the two-line pass rule would. And we all know that the chances of the NHL mandating that owners sacrifice their most expensive seats and take a short-term financial hit, even if it's for the good of the game and would probably help everyone long-term, are pretty minimal, if they exist at all.
I know many are against the idea of wandering goalies being fair game. After all, if the NFL can over-protect quarterbacks, why can't hockey over-protect goaltenders? There are some big differences. Quarterbacks are allowed to be hit as long as they're in bounds, they have the football, and the play is on progress. They aren't protected by any special rules. It's just that the existing rules are enforced much more diligently when a hit involves a quarterback. There is no rule in the NHL that a player who is pursuing or possessing the puck can't be hit, and goalies shouldn't be an exception to this rule when they leave the crease. The crease was designed to protect the goalies. They aren't to be intentionally hit in the crease. Skaters are supposed to stay out of the crease unless the puck is in the crease. It is a restricted area. To me, it stands to reason that when a goalie leaves the "restricted area", they should be fair game.
Look at it as a "Leave at your own risk" principle. If you leave the "restricted area" (an area I am fully in favor of expanding in exchange for this rule), you are doing so with the full knowledge that you can be hit (within reasonable context of the game). It's a similar rule that is in place for kickers and punters in the NFL. If someone goes out of their way to light up a kicker, they will get a penalty. If you block the kicker with a hard hit while the kicker is in the general area of the ballcarrier, you will get away with it.
It requires the officials to make the judgment call on whether a hit is "unnecessary" or "excessive", but I think it also serves as a deterrent to the constant wandering of goaltenders who can't be touched. It's a scenario that almost shuts down any aggressive forecheck, because players can't go barrelling in after the puck when the goalie goes out after it.
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